MLB is back! 2016 season begins Sunday 4/3/16

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National League West betting preview: Did the D-backs do enough in the offseason?
By STEVE MERRIL

The Arizona Diamondbacks added a no. 1 and a no. 2 arm to the top of their starting rotation in the offseason. Will that be enough for them to challenge for the penthouse in the National League West?

Arizona Diamondbacks (2015: 79-83, +154 units, 80-74-8 O/U)

Division odds: 9/2
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Diamondbacks: Arizona made the league's biggest offseason acquisition by signing ace Zack Greinke and taking him away from division rival Los Angeles. Greinke was incredible last season with a 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The D-Backs also acquired Shelby Miller who will pair nicely with former All-Star Patrick Corbin to form a strong 1-2-3 starting rotation. The offensive lineup has two superstars in CF A.J. Pollock and 1B Paul Goldschmidt.

Why not bet the Diamondbacks: The bullpen is still mediocre, especially in the middle of the game while trying to setup closer Brad Ziegler. Arizona had no home field advantage last season in hitter-friendly Chase Field as the D-Backs posted a better record on the road (40-41) than at home (39-42). The franchise has only one winning season in the past seven years and overall they have won 82 games or less in 10 of the past 12 seasons.

Season win total pick: Over 81.5 wins


Colorado Rockies (2015: 68-94, -1289 units, 84-74-4 O/U)

Division odds: 50/1
Season win total: 71.5

Why bet the Rockies: The heart of the lineup has two powerful offensive superstars in RF Carlos Gonzalez (40 HR) and 3B Nolan Arenado (42 HR) who will, once again, benefit from playing in the thin air and altitude of Coor's Field. The Rockies held their own against right-handed starters, going 57-62 in those games, compared to just 11-32 versus southpaws last year.

Why not bet the Rockies: Colorado's overall offensive stats last season were very misleading as, despite leading the league in runs scored (due to hitter friendly Coor's Field), the team ranked dead last in the league in batting average and on-base percentage when using road games only. The pitching rotation is once again extremely weak from top to bottom this year.

Season win total pick: Under 71.5 wins


Los Angeles Dodgers (2015: 92-70, -1122 units, 78-79-5 O/U)

Division odds: 11/10
Season win total: 90

Why bet the Dodgers: They have the most consistent pitcher in baseball with ace Clayton Kershaw who has posted 1.83, 1.77, and 2.13 ERA's the past three seasons. Los Angeles acquired Scott Kazmir in the offseason to follow Kershaw in the rotation. The Dodgers were a better offensive team than their overall numbers indicated last year as they play home games in a pitcher friendly ballpark. They led the league in on-base percentage when using road games only. The Dodgers won 92 games last year, despite going just 6-9 in extra-inning games and only 23-26 in close games decided by one run.

Why not bet the Dodgers: The rotation lost SP Zack Greinke (1.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) to divisional rival Arizona in the offseason. While they did acquire Kazmir, the rest of this rotation is suspect with Brett Anderson, Kenta Maeda, and Hyun-jin Ryu. The bullpen is the team's biggest weakness and ranked 11th in the league (out of 15 teams) with a poor 3.91 ERA last year. The Dodgers failed to acquire closer Aroldis Chapman this offseason.

Season win total pick: Under 90 wins


San Diego Padres (2015: 74-78, -1924 units, 93-62-7 O/U)

Division odds: 40/1
Season win total: 73.5

Why bet the Padres: This team underachieved last season and had to use multiple lineups as key players missed significant time due to injuries, including Wil Myers who only played in 60 games. There is potential in the middle of this lineup with 3B Yangervis Solarte and OF Matt Kemp who combined for 37 home runs last year. The pitching rotation has strong arms at the top with Tyson Ross and James Shields combining for 428 strikeouts last season.

Why not bet the Padres: Overall, the offensive lineup is extremely weak with no depth. The Padres ranked dead last (30th) in all of baseball last season in team batting average and on-base percentage. San Diego also has a poor bullpen and a pitching staff that ranked third to last in the National League last year with a 4.44 ERA in road games. This team has now posted a losing record in seven of their past eight seasons.

Season win total pick: Under 73.5 wins


San Francisco Giants (2015: 84-78, -70 units, 79-73-10 O/U)

Division odds: 7/5
Season win total: 88.5

Why bet the Giants: San Francisco has won 3 of the past 6 World Series titles and each came after missing the playoffs in the previous season. San Francisco added starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija in the offseason to bolster an extremely veteran rotation that also features ace Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, and Matt Cain. The bullpen is excellent and posted the third best ERA in the league last season.

Why not bet the Giants: The offense lacks power and ranked 26th in all of baseball last year in total home runs with only four individual players hitting more than nine. The Giants acquired leadoff hitter Denard Span from the Nationals this offseason, but he is injury prone and missed 101 games last year.

Season win total pick: Over 88.5 wins

 

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NL West Preview
By Matt Zylbert

Arizona Diamondbacks - Predicted Record: 90-72 (Best Bet: Over 82 Wins)

By making a number of noteworthy moves over the offseason, the Diamondbacks have launched themselves into the conversation pertaining to this year's potential breakout teams. The most impactful of those transactions were geared towards the pitching staff, which had been mediocre at best in recent years, but could be the difference in a possible monumental 2016 campaign.

Of course, the Diamondbacks instantly made a huge splash when they were able to sign former division rival Zack Greinke, giving the club a much-needed true ace. Arizona also acquired Shelby Miller from the Braves through a bit of a head-scratching deal in which they surrendered two very promising young players, but it shows the organization is confident in being able to win right now, as Miller adds a solid presence in the upper half of the rotation. Patrick Corbin is in there, too, ready for his first full big league season since Tommy John surgery after showcasing promising work in his return a year ago. The bullpen doesn't quite have the same ceiling to match that of its starters, but it could be a formidable group with veteran Brad Zeigler closing games, and Daniel Hudson teaming with newcomer Tyler Clippard to share set-up duties.

Offense has long been the main strength in Arizona, and it should be explosive once again in the new season. It all starts with perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, of course, coming off yet another fabulous year. The x-factor, however, just might be the emerging A.J. Pollock, who enjoyed a sensational breakout campaign in '15, en route to his first career All-Star berth. With Yasmany Tomas and David Peralta also in the outfield, this is definitely an effective group despite flying under the radar collectively. The team also added Jean Segura, who certainly should be an upgrade at shortstop with the bat. Behind the plate, Wellington Castillo can be one of the league's better offensive backstops. Taking everything into account, the D-backs have the makeup of a team on the rise, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them continuing on into October.

San Francisco Giants - Predicted Record: 88-74

It's an 'even' year, and in today's day and age, that tends to result in an eventful season for the Giants. In fact, they've won the World Series in each of the past three 'even' years dating back to 2010, and with a fortified pitching staff for the new campaign, San Francisco may have the goods to make it four in a row.

At the top of the rotation, there is ol' reliable Madison Bumgarner, who matches up well with any other ace in the game. Behind him are a couple of key acquisitions that could ultimately make or break the club's season, starting with the arrival of Johnny Cueto to fill the No. 2 slot. Considering his previous dominance in the National League while with the Reds, the presence of Johnny Beisbol gives the Giants an elite 1-2 punch. Jeff Samardzija was also signed over the winter, and despite a disappointing season as a member of the White Sox, he definitely has notable potential to rebound in his return to the NL. Don't forget about Chris Heston, too, as he'll be returning after a surprisingly effective rookie showing. As long as their starting pitching can meet expectations, the always trusty bullpen should take care of the rest, with Santiago Casilla closing games and the likes of Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez setting him up.

Within their lineup, the Giants feature some players to get excited about as well, starting with arguably the best catcher in all of baseball, Buster Posey, who had another standout year in '15. Overall, the entire infield actually could be exceptional, as Brandon Belt has developed into a solid middle-of-the-order bat, while Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford are in the process of joining the upper echelon of their respective positions. Matt Duffy, entering his sophomore season, was very impressive as a rookie at third base. The outfield already has the dynamic Hunter Pence, and should ideally receive a boost with the addition of leadoff specialist Denard Span. It won't be easy, given how competitive the NL West might be, but San Francisco appears to have a roster that can get them back to the postseason. Oh, and don't forget that 'even' year magic.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Predicted Record: 83-79

A new era of Dodger baseball is on the horizon, not just because this will be the final year for legendary play-by-play announcer Vin Scully, but also because the club has a new skipper at the helm. Despite capturing their third straight NL West crown in 2015, Los Angeles dismissed Don Mattingly, leading to the arrival of manager Dave Roberts, who will seek to guide the Dodgers to postseason success after disappointing shortcomings in recent years.

Although Zack Greinke is no longer in town, there is still a potentially lethal pitching rotation in place that can help preserve LA's presence at the top of the standings. For one, they boast arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball today, Clayton Kershaw, who is coming off yet another marvelous campaign. Hyun-Jin Ryu missed all of last year thanks to shoulder problems, but will be back this season, hoping to help fill the void left by Greinke. The biggest wild card on this staff, though, just might be new import Kenta Maeda, who comes to the team following a very successful career in Japan. The Dodgers didn't stop there, also adding proven innings-eater Scott Kazmir. Meanwhile, the bullpen should be a considerable strength as always behind the dominant Kenley Jansen, one of the top closers in the league.

While the pitching figures to be consistent, Los Angeles could end up experiencing a wide variety of results as it concerns their lineup. Adrian Gonzalez is as reliable as they get at first base, but after him, who can be counted on? The polarizing Yasiel Puig has enjoyed notable success already in his big league career, but was a major disappointment last season. Joc Pederson and Corey Seager are two youngsters that will be depended on for integral roles in 2016, though each could experience more growing pains like a year ago. Justin Turner was a bright surprise at the hot corner, but many would say he peaked, plus he's coming off knee surgery. The club would also like a bounce-back effort from Yasmani Grandal, who was abysmal in the second half following an unlikely berth on the All-Star team. While the Dodgers certainly have a fine chance of repeating their division success, they'll be facing significant pressure from the Diamondbacks and Giants, and it could be their undoing.

Colorado Rockies - Predicted Record: 77-85

Since reaching the franchise's first World Series in 2007, the Rockies have descended back into obscurity, and enter the new campaign having finished in the NL West cellar in three of the past four seasons. It's all connected to the same reasoning: Colorado is annually all offense and no pitching, so is this the year they finally get consistent quality work from their starting rotation?

First off, that regularly potent lineup should still be productive with all those talented hitters they have assembled. Carlos Gonzalez, when healthy, is one of the best all-around outfielders in the game, and is capable of an MVP-caliber season -- but that could be a big "if" regarding his health. Nolan Arenado, meanwhile, has arguably developed into the most important piece of the team, as he's been outstanding both at the plate and in the field over at the hot corner. Colorado got nice breakout seasons a year ago from Charlie Blackmon and D.J. LeMahieu, and if both can provide a similar output, that would help to ensure the offense remains in top shape. The only question comes at shortstop, which has a void right now with Jose Reyes facing a lengthy suspension. The club also added Gerardo Parra, who could be a sleeper.

Looking at Colorado's rotation on paper, it may not look pretty, but there are some guys here with potential to break out. Jorge De La Rosa is the most proven of the bunch, having contributed solid work over the past few seasons. Chad Bettis is coming off a fine debut campaign with the club, and the Rox will be leaning on him to build off of that. There is also the intriguing Tyler Chatwood, set to return from Tommy John surgery and could end up being a valuable arm. The starter with the highest ceiling, however, looks to be former No. 3 overall draft pick Jon Gray, who will be entering his second big league season. And what about Jordan Lyles and David Hale? The bullpen received an upgrade, now having Jake McGee close out ballgames, but in a tough division, it's hard to envision this group placing higher than third at best.

San Diego Padres - Predicted Record: 73-89

Expected to be one of the emerging contenders a year ago after an eventful offseason, the Padres instead fell completely flat, clocking in as one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball in 2015. Instead of competing for the division crown, San Diego dug itself a hole they could never quite escape. So, how does this long-struggling franchise get back on track?

Well, the big free-agent signing of James Shields to lead the rotation ended up being a colossal bust, as the durable 10-year veteran ended up tied for the most home runs allowed in all of baseball - and that's while pitching within the friendly confines of Petco Park! Andrew Cashner was a huge disappointment as well, and he'll have to trend back in the other direction if this club has any chance at competing this season. Tyson Ross, at least, contributed his usual underrated work, and can be counted on for stability. Their pitching staff will have potential if Brandon Morrow and/or former reliever Brandon Maurer pan out successfully. Meanwhile, the bullpen can be pretty good, with free agent Fernando Rodney replacing the departed Craig Kimbrel to take over closing duties. Kevin Quackenbush stands out as a set-up man still on the rise.

The main reason the Padres were supposed to ascend last year was because of a much-improved offense, but that projection never really took shape. Justin Upton was the big acquisition going into last season, but he's no longer in San Diego. Wil Myers was an important added piece, too, and he ended up getting hurt early on and missing more than 100 games. If he can return to form, that'd be huge. Matt Hemp is still in town, looking to build off his terrific second half, and San Diego hopes it can a nice season out of the intriguing Cory Spangenberg, but other than that, this offense really doesn't have much depth compared to its division rivals. New manager Andy Green could be in for some growing pains in his first year at the helm.

Evaluating NL West Division Bets

With +400 odds to take the division title, the Diamondbacks look like the best value bet of the five NL West division residents. They made a lot of slick moves over the offseason that will work towards improving their chances for 2016, and the final product should be a very competitive team that at least hovers around the top of the division for the duration of the campaign. It's also why they're my best win total bet this year at Over 82 Wins. If you like betting on teams to continue their dominance over a division, the Dodgers at +110 probably sticks out, but it should once again be noted that I feel their reign will be coming to an end this year. The Giants are the favorite here at -110, partly because of the "even" year aura, but don't let that coincidental trend be your main deciding factor. Are they a good team that improved over the offseason? Yes, which is why they’re one of the main contenders, but -110 juice to win a tough division is not exactly desirable. The Rockies at +4000 is interesting because their offense can still go toe-to-toe with the best, so if you think their starting pitching can finally make the leap, a small bet wouldn't hurt at all. The Padres contain +2000 odds, which show how far they've fallen from last year's preseason projections.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB notebook: Red Sox 3B Shaw beats out Sandoval
By The Sports Xchange

Travis Shaw unseated $17 million third baseman Pablo Sandoval to win the starting job for the Boston Red Sox coming out of spring training.
"For right now to start the season this is what's best for our team," manager John Farrell said of the decision Thursday. Farrell said salary is not his concern when determining the best lineup for the Red Sox.
Shaw, 25, has a 2016 salary for the league minimum of $520,000.
Sandoval said the decision from Farrell was difficult. But did say Farrell's call was "the right decision to help the team win."
Sandoval, an eight-year veteran, signed as a big-ticket free agent before last season. He'll be on the bench for Opening Day with outfielder Rusney Castillo, who was signed in 2014 out of Cuba and given a $72.5 million contract.

---John Schuerholz stepped down as Atlanta Braves team president after 25 years among a number of organizational changes.
Schuerholz, who is entering his 51st season in professional baseball, will remain as vice chairman. President of baseball operations John Hart will report to Schuerholz.
Executive vice president Mike Plant has been named President, Development and executive vice president Derek Schiller has been named as president, business.
Schuerholz joined the Braves in October 1990 as general manager and for 17 seasons (1991-2007) oversaw baseball operations. Schuerholz, 75, has served as team president since October 2007 and will be inducted into the Braves Hall of Fame in August.

---The New York Yankees named Masahiro Tanaka as their Opening Day starter on Monday against the Houston Astros.
Tanaka had surgery in October to remove a bone spur in his pitching elbow and got off to a slow start in spring training before giving up one run in four innings in his final preseason outing on Tuesday against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi said Thursday that the starting rotation will include Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. The fifth starter is still up for grabs between C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pitcher Props - Top Bets
By Matt Zylbert

Baseball player prop season bets have been trending towards becoming a craze in Vegas and on offshore books for years now, with linesmakers providing projected stats pertaining to particular players, giving any gambler the option of betting over or under the aforementioned number. This can range from a wide variety of options, including a player's hits, home runs, wins, or even strikeouts, among others.

They also bare caution, however. As you may recall last year, I went into great detail covering my favorite player prop for the 2015 season, that being Stephen Strasburg Over 14.5 Wins, and unfortunately, while Strasburg had a very nice year overall (not to mention an absolutely dominant second half), he ended up missing well over two months of the season due to an unforeseen fluke back injury, thus limiting him to 11 wins in only 23 starts. In the process, 'over' backers were screwed out of a surefire win despite making the correct call.

Alas, that's the risk you take when choose to bet the 'over' of a season-long player prop, but that bout of bad luck won't phase me as it concerns the 2016 campaign.

Let's take a look at my two best player prop bets for the upcoming year:

Noah Syndergaard - OVER 12.5 Wins

This is my No. 1 prop bet of the season, and it's one that potentially could win with a lot of room to spare. Noah Syndergaard was always considered a top pitching prospect dating back to his tenure in the Toronto Blue Jays minor league system, and when he finally made his debut in May of last season, the 23-year-old did not disappoint.

Despite losing in his major league debut, Syndergaard would end up having a terrific rookie campaign, finishing 9-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, while amassing a remarkable 166/31 K/BB ratio in his 150 total innings pitched. Furthermore, he was also successful on the high-pressure postseason stage, including nabbing the Mets' only World Series victory over the Royals. Overall, he started three games in the playoffs, two of which registered as quality starts, and a point could be made that it was his October showcase that further solidified his arrival as a big-time pitcher for the years ahead.

So what will Syndergaard's sophomore season entail? Well first off, it's already common knowledge that he's part of a legitimate contender, not to mention one that arguably has the best pitching rotation in all of baseball. Interestingly, he might have as high a ceiling as everyone else on the staff, which is why it's very advantageous to lock in this prop bet with a win total so relatively low. In other words, this is the equivalent of buying someone as low as they're probably ever going to be in the eyes of the linesmakers.

Just taking one quick glance at the man otherwise known as Thor and it's easy to observe how notably strong the right-hander truly is. At 6-foot-6, 242 pounds, the 23-year-old right-hander is built for the long haul, and has exhibited no signs of fatigue or any potential injury throughout the new season. In fact, one can argue that he's already in midseason form based on how his spring training has gone. In four starts, spanning 17.2 innings, Syndergaard has put together a marvelous statline consisting of a 2.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an outstanding 19/1 K/BB ratio.

The native Texan is clearly and quickly entering his prime, seemingly with ease as he routinely dominates on the hill. If you've ever read any of his interviews or quotes, you'd instantly get the impression that he loves doing what he does and looks forward to taking the ball every fifth day with the upmost confidence. When you take everything into account, it's a bet worth making for at least a few units. Bettors should be riding Syndergaard during his obvious ascension -- before he's regularly recognized nationally as one of the game's best hurlers.

Marcus Stroman - OVER 12.5 Wins

As already alluded to, the biggest concern when taking a player prop bet over the long haul has to do with potential injury, and that's obviously something that especially sticks out with young Marcus Stroman, considering he endured a torn ACL just last spring and missed all but one month of the 2015 season.

But here's the silver lining: that injury had nothing to do with Stroman's pitching arm or shoulder, and was more so a fluke incident. Not only that, when he returned to the mound last September, it was as if he had never left, as the 24-year-old proceeded to seemingly pick up from where he last left off the year prior.

And remember, Stroman was fantastic in 2014. That season -- his last full one in the bigs -- he finished 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while stringing together an impressive 111/28 K/BB ratio in 130.2 total innings. His numbers were even a bit more impressive if you take out his relief appearances, as in his 20 starts, he actually posted a 3.29 ERA, while hitters slashed just .242/.287/.323 against the promising youngster in those contests.

That led to last year's return, when he won all four of his starts, en route to recording a 1.67 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, all coming against tough AL East offenses. In addition, he received some assignments in the playoffs and impressed once again, as two of his three starts in the postseason went down as quality ones.

With his impressive six-pitch repertoire, including a sinker he developed in the second half of '14 that was being compared to Roy Halladay’s, Stroman is armed to succeed and appears poised to be Toronto's next big-time pitcher. Bettors might shy away from the right-hander because of the park he plays in at Rogers Centre, but Stroman is capable of inducing a lot of groundballs. In fact, 53.8 percent of the balls put in play against him in his last full slate of starts came on the ground, which is a number that ranked even higher than Clayton Kershaw's mark. Plus, he allowed just seven home runs total in that aforementioned 2014 campaign.

There's no question Stroman has the potential to be an upper echelon starting pitcher in the major leagues despite his curiously low height, standing at only 5-foot-8. But don't let that steer you away. This kid has all the tools to succeed, including a passion for pitching that is topped by no one else around the league. Wearing his emotion on his sleeve every fifth day, Stroman is as animated as they come, and that's a good thing when you invest in someone over the course of a full season. Much like Syndergaard, Stroman is on the verge of developing into a perennial All-Star, and being on a team that will contend -- let alone one with the best offense in the majors -- he should definitely go over the win total he was dealt by the linesmakers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 New York Yankees Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

With pitchers and catchers set to report to spring camps in two weeks, it's time to start our baseball previews. And what better place to start than the most popular team in the game, the New York Yankees.

If I'm putting my cards on the table, I didn't see the Yankees winning 87 games last season, much less making the playoffs as a wild-card team. The Bombers led the AL East for a large chunk of the first half of the season before the Toronto Blue Jays caught fire after trading for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. The Yankees finished six games behind the Jays but were the AL's top wild-card team. New York hosted Houston in that one-game playoff, but the Yanks couldn't solve Dallas Keuchel and lost 3-0. Hey, at least the Yankees made the playoffs for the first time since 2012. But MLB's most successful franchise hasn't won a pennant since 2009. George Steinbrenner is spinning in his grave.


Speaking of the late Boss, he surely would have spent a fortune this offseason on a very good free-agent class. But the new Yankees run by son Hal Steinbrenner simply don't operate that way. Believe it or not, the team hasn't signed a single free agent to a major-league contract as of this writing. The Yankees have never not signed at least one since free agency began after the 1976 season. There's not much left out there, so I don't expect anything major. The team did make a few interesting trades, however. I'll address those below.

New York opens the season on April 4 at home against those Astros. It's a tough first stretch to open the year as trips to Detroit, which will be much better this season, and Toronto follow.

Yankees 2016 Projected Lineup

The lineup should look the same as it did last season -- when every projected starter was healthy -- other than at second base. That's because the Yankees acquired three-time All-Star shortstop Starlin Castro from the Cubs for pitcher Adam Warren. Castro, however, will play second. I think that's a good move for the Bombers. Castro is overpaid, but then all MLB players are. He is owed $38 million over the next four seasons and has a team option for $16 million in 2020. Castro was really struggling last season in Chicago until he was moved from shortstop to second and then hit better than .300 the rest of the way. Second base was a black hole for New York in 2015, so this is an upgrade no matter what. Overall, Castro batted .265 with 52 runs, 23 doubles, 11 home runs and 69 RBIs in 151 games last year. Castro likely will hit eighth, one spot ahead of double-play partner Didi Gregorius, who was a great pickup last offseason from Arizona. He hit .265 with nine homers and 56 RBIs while playing good defense.

At leadoff again is center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, and as always with him it's about staying healthy. Frankly, that's the case for several veteran members of this lineup. Ellsbury was limited to 111 games last year and hit just .257 with an on-base percentage of .318. That's not good enough. He wasn't even in the starting lineup in the wild-card game. Supposedly Ellsbury is in terrific shape right now for what that's worth. He's still owed $105 million.

Fellow outfielder Brett Gardner will bat second; originally the Cubs wanted him for Castro but the Yankees said no. Then comes the heart of the order: DH Alex Rodriguez, first baseman Mark Teixeira, outfielder Carlos Beltran, catcher Brian McCann and third baseman Chase Headley. All but Headley have injury worries. A-Rod hit 33 homers and knocked in 86 last season in a huge bounce-back year, but he wore down big-time over the final two months during which he hit .191 with nine home runs and 25 RBIs. The guy will be 41 in July, so it's unrealistic to see him playing 151 games again, much less hitting 33 dingers. He is 13 away from 700.

Teixiera was limited to 111 games due to injury but did hit 31 homers and knock in 79. He's soon to be 36 and hasn't played more than 123 games since 2011. Beltran is soon to be 39 and he can't be hidden at DH with A-Rod there. Neither can McCann. Headley is just OK.

The Yankees got some bad news recently when one of the team's top hitting prospects, first baseman Greg Bird, was lost for the season to shoulder surgery. He was probably going to start the year in the minors but was projected as the top backup to Teixeira and A-Rod eventually this season -- plus Tex's full-time replacement in 2017. Now that's up in the air. Bird hit .261 with 11 homers and 31 RBIs in just 46 last-season games in 2015.

Yankees 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Injury worries are prevalent here as well. The Yankees were eighth in the AL last season with a 4.05 ERA. The ace remains Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51), but he hasn't been able to avoid a long DL stint in his two big-league seasons and still is a ticking time bomb for Tommy John surgery with ligament damage already in his pitching arm. No. 2 Michael Pineda (12-10, 4.37) is good, but he's all but guaranteed several weeks on the DL as well considering his history.

The rest of the rotation will be sorted out between top pitching prospect Luis Severino (5-3, 2.70 last season; he's a lock for a spot), big lefty and way-past-his-prime CC Sabathia (6-10, 4.73), who is also coming out of alcohol rehab, Nathan Eovaldi (14-3, 4.20) and Ivan Nova (6-11, 4.82). Nova likely heads to the bullpen to begin things if everyone stays healthy.

Speaking of the bullpen, it shapes up to be perhaps the most dominating in big-league history with the trade for Reds fire-balling All-Star lefty Aroldis Chapman. He will move into a closer role with fellow lefty and last year's closer, Andrew Miller, and All-Star right Dellin Betances setting him up. Assuming the Yanks keep all three (Miller has been rumored in trades), they would be the first team in MLB history to feature three pitchers who had at least 100 strikeouts in relief the season before. Chapman threw the 62 hardest pitches in the majors last year. He is likely to be suspended to start the season for a domestic issue, however. How long is anyone's guess. So some nights, manager Joe Girardi simply needs his starters to go six innings most nights.

The loss of Warren will hurt some as he was one of the best swingmen in the majors, happy to start or relieve. He was 7-7 with a 3.29 ERA in 43 games (17 starts) in 2015.

Yankees Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

New York is +1800 to win the World Series and +700 to take the American League pennant. More futures odds will be out in a few weeks. Teixeira is +5000 to lead the majors in homers and A-Rod is +10000. The Yankees were 80-82 against the spread last season and 77-81-4 O/U. On the moneyline, they were -339 for the season.

New York Yankees 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects New York to finish second in the AL East with an 85-77 record, six behind the Red Sox. Generally the sportsbooks' win totals are pretty close to what FanGraphs projects. I would go 'under' that total. If you could guarantee me all the key guys could stay healthy, then New York could win 90-plus and the AL East. I don't see that as realistic. Yankees finish around .500 and miss the playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 St. Louis Cardinals Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

So your first memory of the 2015 MLB season probably is of the World Series, with Kansas City beating the New York Mets in five games. Thus, perhaps just off the top of your head, you assume those were the two best teams in the regular season.

That would be wrong.

The St. Louis Cardinals had 100 regular-season wins, five more than any team. They were the first team since the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies to reach triple digits. The Cards won the NL Central, easily MLB's best division last year, by two games for their third straight division title and advanced to the playoffs for a fifth consecutive year. St. Louis did it largely on the strength of its pitching staff, which led the majors with a 2.94 ERA (only team under 3.00) in 2015. Alas, the Cards were pretty beaten up when the postseason rolled around. They were clobbered by the young sluggers of the Chicago Cubs, who took the NLDS in four games. That was the first-ever playoff series between the bitter rivals.


This offseason has been rather unusual in St. Louis. You would have to say this has been probably the best-run franchise in the majors for a while. It doesn't have the truly big money to spend like the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers yet continues to win. The Cardinals have missed the playoffs only four times this century. So perhaps the front office knows better than I do, but it was strangely quiet this winter despite some glaring holes.

The Cardinals open the season on Sunday, April 3 at Pittsburgh.

Cardinals 2016 Projected Lineup

St. Louis ranked just 24th in runs last season and hit only 137 homers, which was 25th and one spot behind the small-ball Royals. I'm not sure this year's lineup is better.

The big loss was outfielder Jason Heyward. He led all regulars with a .293 average last season while hitting 13 homers with 60 RBIs and 23 steals. OK, not huge numbers overall, but Heyward played Gold Glove defense and led the position players in wins above replacement. The Cardinals wanted Heyward back and reportedly offered him around $200 million over eight years. But Heyward decided to sign for less with the Cubs and ticked off the Cardinals by saying he did so because the Cubs' core players were young and on the rise and the Cards' were on the downside of their careers. I think he's right.

I'm still shocked the Cardinals didn't add one of the bevy of free-agent outfielders that were out there, but this franchise rarely spends big free-agent bucks. St. Louis likes to build from within. The only major position player additions were Jedd Gyorko, who is a backup infielder, and Brayan Pena, who will back up catcher Yadier Molina. Speaking of Molina, he was hampered late last season by torn ligaments in his thumb and had to have another surgery after the season. He's availability for Opening Day is up in the air. Outfielder Matt Holliday and first baseman Matt Adams are coming off injury-plagued seasons themselves. Adams played in only 60 games last year and Holliday 73.

At this point, the team's best every-day player is All-Star third baseman Matt Carpenter, and he will continue to lead off this year. Carpenter upped his power stroke last year and hit 28 homers with 84 RBIs. Swinging for the fences dropped his average some (.272) and his strikeouts rose (151). Stephen Piscotty will bat second and play right field. He was great as a rookie, batting .305 with seven homers and 35 RBIs in 63 games. Holliday plays left and bats third. Center fielder Randall Grichuk hits fourth. He also was good as a rookie, batting ,276 with 17 homers and 47 RBIs in 103 games.

The rest of the lineup: Jhonny Peralta at short, either Adams or Brandon Moss at first base, Kolten Wong at second and Molina behind the plate. Clearly this lineup is hugely dependent on those two young outfielders proving they weren't one-year wonders. Holliday and Molina appear trending downward.

Cardinals 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

That the Cardinals led the majors in ERA was pretty impressive considering ace Adam Wainwright tore his Achilles' tendon in April and missed most of the season. He made it back late and pitched out of the bullpen. He might have started Game 5 of the NLDS had there been one. Wainwright is healthy now.

But the Cardinals lost two key members of that rotation this offseason. John Lackey was the most consistent guy with 13 wins and a 2.77 ERA, but he also chose to sign with the Cubs. Lance Lynn had been super durable and consistent, but he's out for 2016 following Tommy John surgery. Lynn was 12-11 with a 3.03 ERA last season.

The rest of the rotation behind Wainwright will be good young right-handers Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez (he was shut down late last season with shoulder fatigue so keep an eye on that), lefty Jamie Garcia (great in 2015 but injury-prone) and free-agent addition Mike Leake, who spent last season with the Reds and Giants. Leake is nothing special, but you can generally count on six innings and three earned allowed from him each time out. The Cardinals did make a big offer to free-agent David Price, but Boston trumped that offer by many millions. So Leake was the fallback plan.

Closer Trevor Rosenthal is one of the best in the business, saving 48 games with a 2.10 ERA last year. The Cards did add Korean reliever Seung-hwan Oh to boost the bullpen depth.

Cardinals Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

St. Louis is +1400 to win the World Series and +700 for the National League pennant. The Cards have an "over/under" wins total of 87.5, with both at -110. St. Louis doesn't have a player on the prop to lead the majors in homers, nor should it. The Cards were 81-81 against the spread last season and 66-85-11 O/U. On the moneyline, they were +2247 units on the year.

Cardinals 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects St. Louis to finish 84-78 and tied with Pittsburgh at second in the NL Central, 10 games behind the Cubs. I do think this team is behind the Cubs and Pirates in the division. I also believe it will make a move during the season if need be. Losing in St. Louis isn't acceptable. But as this club stands, go under that wins total and no playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 New York Mets Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

It's official now that, perhaps the first time since the mid-to-late 1980s, New York is a Mets town over a Yankees town. Sure, the Bombers might still have more worldwide fans, but the young, rising Mets are way more interesting and have all the buzz entering spring training. Winning an unlikely pennant and having one of the most promising young starting rotations in modern MLB history will do that.

I didn't think much of the Mets entering last season. True, Jacob deGrom was coming off a Rookie of the Year season, but he wasn't a highly-touted guy and perhaps a fluke. Matt Harvey was coming off Tommy John surgery, and Zack Wheeler was lost to it. No one had a clue how good Noah Syndergaard might be. The offense looked like one of the worst in baseball.

But thanks to all those fabulous young pitchers and bolstered by the midseason acquisition of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from Detroit, the Mets finished 90-72 and won the NL East by seven games over the heavily-favored Nationals. It was New York's first playoff berth since 2006.

The Mets weren't supposed to upset the NL West champion L.A. Dodgers in the NLDS but did. DeGrom outpitched Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 and then NL Cy Young runner-up Zack Greinke in the clinching Game 5. The Mets weren't supposed to upset the Cubs, the opposite of the Mets as Chicago had the best young hitters in the majors, in the NLCS, either. But good pitching usually beats good hitting in October, and the Mets swept.

New York actually was then favored in the World Series against Kansas City, but that Royals lineup was probably the worst possible matchup because all those guys made contact and never struck out. Had Mets closer Jeurys Familia not blown a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth in K.C. in Game 1, things could have gone very differently. But the Mets went out in five.

The Mets open the season with a World Series rematch at Kansas City on April 3.

Mets 2016 Projected Lineup

The Mets weren't expected to re-sign Cespedes even though he played like an MVP candidate after arriving from the Tigers. The Mets offense ranked last in the majors in many categories before he arrived and then the best in the NL after. Cespedes hit 17 home runs in 57 games, including nine in a 13-game stretch to start the month of September as the Mets pulled away in the division. He set career highs in a number of power categories, including home runs (35), RBIs (105). But Cespedes was expected to be too pricy as the Mets are still a very frugal franchise. A stale free-agent outfield market led Cespedes back to New York on a three-year, $75 million deal. In reality, it might be a one-year deal as he can opt out after next season. Still, that's a home-run signing for New York, which saw its projected wins total jump by three after. Will Cespedes be as good as he was the second half of last season? Doubtful. But he's still the only bat in the lineup that scares opposing pitchers.

The starting lineup figures to have two other new every-day starters in second baseman Neil Walker, who was acquired in trade from Pittsburgh, and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. The Mets were never going to re-sign second baseman Daniel Murphy, the playoff hitting hero (before World Series), and thought they had a deal with free-agent second baseman Ben Zobrist, but he chose the Cubs. Walker isn't a bad Plan B as he hit .269 with 16 homers and 71 RBIs last year. He only cost so-so pitcher Jon Niese. Cabrera had a bounce-back 2015 with the Rays, batting .265 with 15 homers and 58 RBIs.

So we should be looking at a lineup of right fielder Curtis Granderson, Walker, third baseman David Wright (solid when healthy, which isn't often), Cespedes, first baseman Lucas Duda, catcher Travis d'Arnaud, rising star left fielder Michael Conforto and Cabrera.

This will be a low-average, high-strikeout team with some pop. I'd say it's middle of the pack in baseball overall. But Cespedes better stay healthy.

Mets 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The Mets largely left the pitching staff alone. And why not? The rotation is the envy of baseball. You have deGrom (14-8, 2.54 ERA), Harvey (13-8, 2.71), who should have no innings limit this season, Syndergaard (9-7, 3.24), the guy whom I think will be the best of the bunch eventually, Steven Matz (4-0, 2.27) and Bartolo Colon (14-13, 4.16).

Colon was re-signed to be a placeholder until Wheeler is ready off his TJS. That may not happen until July 1. Wheeler was 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA in 2014. Familia was one of the best closers in baseball last year with 43 saves and a 1.85 ERA. He had been unhittable in the playoffs until that Game 1 World Series mistake.

Wouldn't surprise anyone if the Mets led the NL in ERA and strikeouts this season.

Mets Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

New York is +900 to win the World Series and a +450 second-favorite (to Cubs) to repeat as National League champion. The Mets have an "over/under" wins total of 88, with both at -110. Cespedes is +5000 to lead the majors in homers and Duda +6600. The Mets were 83-78 against the spread last season and 84-72-6 O/U. On the moneyline, they were +589 units on the year.

Mets 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects New York to finish 85-77 and second in the NL East, three games behind Washington. The Mets aren't as bad as they were post-Cespedes or as good as they were with him. He did slump late in the season but that was blamed on a shoulder problem. I will say this: plan on betting on the unders in many, many Mets games in 2016. I see the Mets finishing second in the NL East but likely getting a wild card. I'll go over that wins total but no pennant repeat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Kansas City Royals Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Happy to eat crow when necessary, and I will on last year's Royals winning the franchise's first World Series since 1985.

Sure, Kansas City had reached the 2014 World Series and stretched the San Francisco Bumgarners, err Giants, to seven games. But the small-market Royals had to say goodbye to ace pitcher James Shields and a few others last offseason. I expected K.C. to be pretty good and a playoff contender, but win the pennant? No chance. Then again, I didn't expect the team to raid its farm system for midseason trades for Reds ace pitcher Johnny Cueto and A's second baseman Ben Zobrist. Or that a few free-agent signings, mainly Kendrys Morales and Edinson Volquez, would work out so well.

Kansas City finished with an AL-best 95 regular-season victories, winning the Central Division by a whopping 12 games. That was easily the biggest margin in baseball. Frankly, the Royals should have lost in the AL Division Series to Houston in four games but staged an incredible comeback from a 6-2 eighth-inning hole to win Game 4 9-6. Game 5 was a formality behind Cueto.

The AL East champion Toronto Blue Jays, who were favored, were finished off in six games in the ALCS. Naturally, Kansas City was an underdog in the World Series against the Mets and all that young pitching. But thanks in large part to another crazy rally in Game 1 that set the tone of the series, the Royals finished the Mets in five. The only negative being that the series was clinched in Queens and not title-starved Kansas City.

The 2016 Royals open their season at home in the Sunday night ESPN opener, April 3 in a World Series rematch with the Mets.

Royals 2016 Projected Lineup

This group will look just about exactly the same as it did for the first half of last season; the only major loss was Zobrist, who signed with the Chicago Cubs. So that puts Omar Infante back as the starting second baseman, and he's one of the worst hitters in the majors. So you might see an upgrade there at some point.

The big news was that Kansas City was able to re-sign outfielder Alex Gordon when it appeared he was long gone as a free agent. Gordon took a hometown discount in signing for four years and $72 million. He probably could have gotten five years and $100 million from another team. The Royals are one of only seven teams that have yet to hand out a $100 million contract in their history. Gordon was limited to 104 games last season due to injury and hit .271 with 13 homers and 48 RBIs. But his value goes beyond numbers. He's maybe the best defensive left fielder in MLB. He's a clubhouse leader. And he's clutch -- it was Gordon who hit the tying homer in the bottom of the ninth of Game 1 of the World Series off Mets closer Jeurys Familia to send the game into extras. The Royals won in 14 innings.

So you are looking at shortstop Alcides Escobar leading off, followed by center fielder Lorenzo Cain, a 2015 MVP finalist, first baseman Eric Hosmer, Morales at DH, third baseman Mike Moustakas, catcher Salvador Perez, Gordon in left, Infante at second and Jarrod Dyson in right.

The only other lineup guy who left is outfielder Alex Rios, with Dyson taking his spot. So the Royals again should be a high-average, high-on base, low-strikeout, low-power team. Hey, it has worked the past two years.

Royals 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

New year, new ace gone. Cueto was never an option to be re-signed and he got big money from San Francisco. Cueto had some rough spots with the Royals but gave them the No. 1 they needed in the postseason.

The new ace is Volquez, who was way better than I thought he would be last year with a 13-9 record and 3.55 ERA. It helps to have the majors' best defense behind you. Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08) has the most upside in the rotation. The new addition is former Padre Ian Kennedy. He got a five-year, $70 million deal. Kennedy went 9-15 with a 4.28 ERA despite playing his home games at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Meh. The rest of the staff will be a mix of Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy and ageless Chris Young. Really nothing to be excited about.

But the Royals are two-time AL champions in large part because of the majors' best bullpen. No reason that won't be a major strength again with the return of closer Wade Davis (0.94 ERA last season, taking over about midway at closer), top set-up man Kelvin Herrera and the free-agent addition of former All-Star closer Joakim Soria. Once again, the Royals will just need six innings from their starters most nights.

Royals Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

ansas City is +1200 to win the World Series and +700 to take a third straight AL pennant. The Royals have an "over/under" wins total of 87, with the under a -115 favorite. Kansas City has no players on the prop to lead the majors in homers, and really it shouldn't. The Royals were 89-73 against the spread last season and 73-75-14 O/U. On the moneyline, they were +1944 on the year.

Royals 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Kansas City to finish fourth in the AL Central with an 80-82 record, four behind first-place Cleveland. On paper, do I think the Royals are the fourth-best team in the Central? I do. But they also have intangibles you can't define. I don't see another pennant or even a division title and would go just under that wins total. Interesting there's such a gap between computer projections and the first wins totals released of the year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

I'm starting to actually feel sorry for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

It's a small-market franchise that has done just about everything as well as possible given the financial restraints. It built from within and plays in maybe the most gorgeous stadium in baseball, PNC Park. But the Pirates just can't seem to get over the hump in the National League and they aren't ever going to be in a position to add a big-ticket free agent to help the cause. And now the Pirates play in the majors' best division, the NL Central, with the powerhouse Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.

Last year, the Pirates finished second in the majors in wins with 98. But that was only good enough for second in the Central and a home wild-card game with the Cubs. That meant a matchup against Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta, who pitched a five-hit shutout in a 4-0 Chicago win. It was the second straight year the Pirates' season has ended at home in the wild-card game against one of the best pitchers in baseball; in 2014 it was the Giants' Madison Bumgarner who pitched a four-hit shutout. Pittsburgh is looking to advance past the NLDS -- it lost in five games in the 2013 NLDS to the Cardinals after winning a home wild-card game -- for the first time since losing that epic 1992 NLCS to Atlanta.

The good news is that the Pirates have the talent to finally win another pennant. The bad news is that it likely will take the wild-card route again. Pittsburgh opens the season on April 3 at home vs. St. Louis.

Pirates 2016 Projected Lineup

There look to be two changes in the every-day lineup from last season. One is at first base as the Pirates said goodbye to Pedro Alvarez (non-tendered). He led the team with 27 homers but really had become a platoon player because he hits for a very low average and strikes out a ton.

The other is at second base as Neil Walker was traded to the Mets for pitcher Jon Niese. Walker hit .269 with 16 homers and 71 RBIs last season but this was a walk year and he likely would have been out of the team's price range. The Pirates could put either Josh Harrison or Jung-Ho Kang at second with the other at third base.

Kang, who probably plays the hot corner, suffered a major knee injury and a broken leg when the Cubs' Chris Coghlan slid into him while trying to break up a double play on Sept. 17 at PNC Park. By current rules, it wasn't dirty but MLB is expected to alter the rules on players sliding into second before the 2016 season partly as a result of that injury. Kang had a fantastic rookie season, batting .287 with 15 homers and 58 RBIs. He has rods and plates in that leg/knee and it's not thought he will be ready for Opening Day but it's not impossible. The Pirates estimated a 6-8 month recovery time after Kang's surgery, which meant any time between mid-March and mid-May.

Pittsburgh might have the best all-around outfield in the majors in perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen in center field, rising star Gregory Polanco in right and Starling Marte in left. McCutchen is on one of the best contracts in the majors but that runs out after 2018. He probably will cost too much to stick around unless he takes a discount.

So the lineup looks like this: Polanco, Harrison at second, McCutchen, Marte, John Jaso/Michael Morse platoon at first, Kang at third, Francisco Cervelli at catcher and Jordy Mercer at shortstop. The Pirates ranked 11th in runs last year.

Pirates 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

This team was carried by pitching last year with a 3.21 ERA that was second in the majors and 92 quality starts, which were sixth. The bullpen was fantastic, going 31-16 with an MLB-best 2.67 ERA. The Pirates were 83-1 when leading after eight innings and 79-1 when leading after seven.

The top two in the rotation return in Cy Young candidate Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60) and lefty Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.38). That's very good, but then the problems arise. All-Star righty A.J. Burnett retired. Charlie Morton was traded. Late-season pickup J.A. Happ, who was unbelievable with the Pirates, left as a free agent. So you are looking at a No. 3-5 most likely of Jeff Locke (8-11, 4.49), Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. Niese was 9-10 with a 4.13 ERA last year in New York. Vogelsong was 9-11 with a 4.67 ERA despite pitching often in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco. All I can say is that Cole and Liriano better be fantastic and stay healthy.

Mark Melancon is one of the best closers in baseball and had 51 saves last season. He's back. Two set-up men, Antonio Bastardo and Joakim Soria, left in free agency. They could be missed. The team took a flier on former Rangers All-Star closer Neftali Feliz in free agency to bolster the pen.

Pirates Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Pittsburgh is +2000 to win the World Series and +1000 for the NL pennant. The Pirates have an "over/under" wins total of 87, with both options at -110. McCutchen is +10000 to win the majors' home-run title. Pittsburgh was 73-89 against the spread last season and 75-75-12 O/U. On the moneyline, the Pirates were +2135 units on the year.

Pirates 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Pittsburgh to finish 84-78 and tied for second in the NL Central, 10 games behind the Cubs. The lineup looks very good as long as Kang gets back 100 percent and wasn't a first-year fluke. I like Cole and Liriano and think Niese will be solid enough, but I have no faith in Locke or Vogelsong. Can the Pirates afford to deal for a starter if need be or would they call up top prospect Tyler Glasnow? The bullpen is in good shape.

No pennant again this season, perhaps another wild-card spot, and I'll go slightly over the wins total. It helps the Pirates (and Cubs and Cardinals) get to beat up on the sorry Brewers and Reds 38 times a year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Chicago Cubs Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

I'm sure I don't need to tell you that the Chicago Cubs haven't won the World Series since 1908, which is pretty incredible when you think about it. They haven't even made the Fall Classic since 1945.

But thanks to Theo Epstein, these aren't the "Lovable Losers" any longer. This franchise is set up to be the best in baseball for probably the rest of the decade. And if Epstein, the Cubs' president of baseball operations, wins a World Series on Chicago's North Side after ending the title drought in Boston (where he was GM) as well, he absolutely must go into the Hall of Fame. Epstein also would never have to pay for a meal or drink again in the Windy City.

The Cubs arrived a year ahead of schedule last year in winning 97 games, which was their most since 2008 (last time team made playoffs) yet only the third-most in the NL Central. Chicago hadn't won a playoff game since 2003 but went to Pittsburgh and beat the Pirates in the wild-card game behind ace and eventual Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta. Chicago was an underdog in the NLDS against St. Louis, which had the best record in the majors. But the Cubs largely bashed that Cardinals pitching staff in winning in four games. It was the first-ever playoff meeting between the bitter rivals. All those gifted young Cubs sluggers were shut down in an NLCS sweep at the hands of the New York Mets and all their gifted young pitchers. Still, 2015 was an unqualified success for the Cubs because they arrived one year ahead of schedule, as even Epstein has admitted.

Remember, this team had four rookies contributing on an every-day basis in Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell (all called up during the season) and outfielder Jorge Soler. You aren't supposed to win 97 games with four rookies in your lineup. Oh, the farm system is still loaded!

Chicago opens the season with an interleague matchup at the LA Angels on April 4.

Cubs 2016 Projected Lineup

Assuming no regression from the rookies listed above, this should be the best lineup in the National League if not baseball. Plus the Cubs added two of the top free-agent position players on the market in outfielder Jason Heyward (.293, 13 HRs, 60 RBIs, 23 steals) and second baseman Ben Zobrist (.276, 13 HRs, 56 RBIs). Heyward got an eight-year, $184 million deal, turning down more to return to St. Louis because he preferred Chicago's young talented group. Some scouts love Heyward, some are so-so on him. He's never going to be a huge power guy or probably hit .300 but he does everything well and plays Gold Glove defense. For now, Heyward will play center field, although that's not his normal spot.

Zobrist chose the Cubs over the Mets because he wanted a reunion with his former Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon. Zobrist is like Heyward in that he does everything well and Zobrist can play about any position on the diamond. Both Heyward and Zobrist are good at getting on base, and if there was one weakness last year on the Cubs it was they were often boom-or-bust: i.e. homer or strike out.

Zobrist takes the spot of former All-Star shortstop Starlin Castro, who was traded to the Yankees for pitcher Adam Warren. Castro lost his job at short during last season to Russell and had moved to second. Castro is the only major subtraction from last year's club. Zobrist will lead off most likely with Heyward batting second. Then comes perhaps the best 3-6 in the majors: first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.278, 31 HRs, 101 RBIs), third baseman Bryant (.275, 26 HRs, 99 RBIs), the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, Schwarber (.246, 16 HRs, 43 RBIs in just 69 games) in left and Soler (.262, 10 HRs, 47 RBIs in 101 games) in right. Schwarber will catch probably once a week. He's a terrible outfielder but you have to play him every day. Soler could be dealt during the season for young pitching. The rest of the lineup will be catcher Miguel Montero and Russell.

Cubs 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Arrieta had one of the best years in Cubs history in winning the Cy Young Award. He finished 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and was an obscene 12-1 with an 0.75 ERA in 107 1/3 innings over 15 starts in the second half of the season. That's the best post-All-Star break ever. Arrieta dominated the Pirates in the wild-card game but then was shaky in the NLDS vs. the Cardinals and NLCS vs. the Mets. The worry is that Arrieta wore down as he pitched way more innings than he ever had. Expect the Cubs to limit him a bit this season when possible. I doubt you see any complete games unless his pitch count is low entering the ninth inning.

Lefty Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34) I suppose was a minor disappointment last season, his first as a National Leaguer. But sometimes it takes a year to adjust to a new league, and Lester clearly was spooked by holding runners on base. The new No. 3 is John Lackey, who was the Cardinals' most consistent pitcher last season at 13-10 with a 2.77 ERA. Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks will fill out the rotation, with new addition Warren waiting in the wings if anyone struggles or gets hurt. Warren is valuable because he's a good starter and reliever. He was 7-7 with a 3.29 ERA last year with the Yankees.

Other than adding Warren, the bullpen is largely back intact. Closer Hector Rondon was 6-4 with 30 saves and a 1.67 ERA last season.

Cubs Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

At BetOnline, Chicago is the +650 favorite to win the World Series and a +350 favorite for the NL pennant. The Cubs have an "over/under" wins total of 89, with both options at -110. Bryant is +1400 to win the major-league home run title, Rizzo is +2500 and Schwarber +3300. Chicago was 81-81 against the spread last season and 71-81-10 O/U. On the moneyline, the Cubs were +1751 units on the year.

Cubs 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Chicago to finish with the most wins in the majors at 94-68 and win the Central Division by 10 games. That wins total, the first posted I've seen, seems really low. I've seen some projections where the Cubs win 100 games. I'm not ready to say that quite yet. But as this team is currently constructed, I would go over the wins total and this is my World Series team; can you imagine the party in Chicago? Epstein will add pitching if need be at the trade deadline. Bryant has a shot at the homer title, especially if Miami's Giancarlo Stanton gets hurt again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Toronto Blue Jays Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

I was on the Toronto bandwagon much of last season and then really jumped on when the team acquired pitcher David Price, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Ben Revere around the July 31 trade deadline. The Blue Jays took off after that and finished 93-69. They ended the longest playoff drought in baseball and won the AL East for the first time since that previous postseason berth in 1993.

I thought the Jays would win the AL pennant, and they were favored to. I really wonder what would have happened had Toronto gotten home-field advantage throughout. The team finished two games behind K.C. for the No. 1 seed, and I question if Jays officials are still having second thoughts about the team appearing to take its foot off the gas a bit after wrapping up the division. Toronto lost four of its final five regular-season games to cough up the No. 1 seed.

In the ALDS, Toronto knocked off AL West champion Texas in five games despite losing the first two at home. Game 5 of that series featured perhaps the wildest inning -- the seventh -- of postseason baseball in history. That also was the inning of Jose Bautista's epic bat flip following a three-run homer that broke a 3-3 tie. The Jays also lost the first two games of the ALCS in Kansas City and would be eliminated in a Game 6 there. A disappointing end to an otherwise great season, and baseball is definitely alive again north of the border as the Jays regularly sold out and had crazy crowds.

Toronto opens the season April 3 at Tampa Bay.

Blue Jays 2016 Projected Lineup

If I had written this story a few days ago, I might have included Cincinnati outfielder Jay Bruce as part of Toronto's lineup. A three-way deal involving the Jays, Reds and Angels was nearly done, where Toronto would lose outfielder Michael Saunders and a prospect and get Bruce back. But some medical red flags on Saunders and Bruce scuttled the trade.

No matter. Toronto should again have the best lineup in baseball if everyone stays healthy. That's a big if on this team. The Jays led the majors by a mile last season with 891 runs scored and 232 home runs. Everyone of note is back.

Tulowitzki will lead off, and you know he's not going to play 150 games or so; he always lands on the DL once or twice, and last season was no exception. He hit just .239 with five homers and 17 RBIs in 41 games with the Jays and did miss three weeks at the end of the season with an injury. But he should be better adjusted to AL pitching now.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson hit .297 with 41 homers and 123 RBIs in 2015 in winning the AL MVP last year; the Jays absolutely stole him in last offseason's trade with Oakland. Donaldson hits second. Right fielder Jose Bautista, a free-agent-to-be, made news this week by saying he won't negotiate on a new contract this season. He told the Jays what he wanted, reportedly $150 million over five years. If they don't want to give it to him, no problem. Bautista will get it somewhere else, or so he thinks. Bautista was able to stay healthy last year for the most part and hit 40 homers and knocked in 114. He also will be 36 in October, so I wouldn't give him $30 million a season, either. Batting cleanup behind Bautista is DH Edwin Encarnacion (39 HRs, 111 RBIs), another guy up for free agency.

The rest of the lineup should be Chris Colabello (.321, 15 HRs, 54 RBIs) at first base, Saunders (only nine games last year due to injury) in left, catcher Russell Martin (23 HRs, 77 RBIs), center fielder and defensive dynamo Kevin Pillar (.278, 56 RBIs) and Ryan Goins at second. Goins is holding that spot for Devon Travis, who was off to a great start as a rookie in 2015 before going down with a shoulder problem that required surgery. Travis won't be ready to start the season.

There's no reason this lineup won't lead in runs and homers again, although Tulo and Bautista have had their injury issues. Encarnacion occasionally too. Colabello might have been a one-year wonder.

Blue Jays 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The Blue Jays wanted to keep Price, but they certainly weren't going to play $200 million-plus to do so. Thus, that leaves an obvious gaping hole in the rotation even as shaky as Price has been in the playoffs in his career. Price was the team's biggest offseason loss. Fellow lefty starter Mark Buehrle also is gone, but he faded big-time late last season and is in semi-retirement.

The new ace is young Marcus Stroman, who was expected to miss all of last season following a ligament injury in the spring. But Stroman returned late and showed why he has been touted as a future Cy Young candidate, going 4-0 with 1.67 ERA. The team re-signed right-hander Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13) to a two-year deal. Ageless knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (11-11, 3.91) keeps putting up innings. And lefty J.A. Happ was signed in free agency. The guy has been a journeyman for the most part but was 7-2 with 1.85 ERA in 11 starts for the Pirates down the stretch in 2015. I'm skeptical that's for real. Pitching in the AL is a bit different. Young Aaron Sanchez is the leader in the clubhouse for the No. 5 spot, competing against Drew Hutchison and new addition Jesse Chavez.

The Jays fortified their bullpen by trading Revere to Washington for former All-Star Drew Storen. It's presumed he will close; Storen struggled last year when pulled from that role when Washington traded for Jonathan Papelbon. But Storen was good before that and finished with 29 saves and a 3.44 ERA.

Blue Jays Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Toronto is +1200 to win the World Series and +600 to repeat as AL champion. The Jays are +200 second-favorites to win the AL East again. They have an "over/under" wins total of 86.5, with both at -115. Encarnacion is +1600 to lead the major sin homers and Donaldson and Bautista are +2000. Toronto was 90-72 against the spread last season and 78-73-11 O/U.

Blue Jays 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Toronto to finish with 83 wins, third in the AL East and eight games behind Boston. That pitching staff definitely worries me behind Stroman, who has thrown only 157.2 regular-season innings in his career. Will the Jays be able to go out and add up a big salary in trade at the deadline even with the state of the Canadian dollar? That's the big question. As things stand, no division or pennant. Go over the wins. I think Encarnacion has a decent shot at the HR title because he doesn't have to worry about potential injury while playing in the field. He might play first in interleague play, though.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Normally a manager with three straight National League West titles on his resume gets a raise, not a pink slip. But the Los Angeles Dodgers aren't your typical franchise, and when you have the highest payroll in league history, more is expected than just a division flag.

The Dodgers did win the West for a third straight season in 2015 with a 92-70 record, eight games ahead of second-place San Francisco. They were the NL pennant favorites entering the postseason, as any team with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke should be. However, Kershaw lost Game 1 of the NLDS at home to the Mets, and Greinke took the defeat in the clinching Game 5 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have now gone nine postseason appearances without a trip to the World Series, tying the all-time mark (Athletics and Braves).

Yet another season short of a World Series, which the Dodgers haven't played in since winning in 1988, was the final straw for the front office. So Manager Don Mattingly was let go. His regular-season record was great, but the Dodgers won just one postseason series under him. They were 8-11 overall in the playoffs under Mattingly.

Instead of going the big-name route to replace Mattingly, the team gave former big-league outfielder Dave Roberts his first managerial job in a minor surprise over favorite Gabe Kapler. Roberts is the first minority manager of the team that broke baseball's color barrier. One allure of Roberts reportedly was the belief he would instill more of a business-like atmosphere in the clubhouse like the Yankees used to have with Joe Torre. Roberts is the son of a U.S. Marine, so he knows all about rules.

Los Angeles opens the season April 4 at San Diego.

Dodgers 2016 Projected Lineup

When the Rookie of the Year odds come out, the heavy National League favorite will be Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, who will lead off. He's the No. 1 prospect in baseball and hit .337 with four homers and 17 RBIs in 98 late-season at-bats in 2015. The Dodgers got very little production from that position last year with Jimmy Rollins, who's now gone.

Otherwise, the every-day lineup should look the same, although L.A. still has a problem of too many outfielders. It was thought that second baseman Howie Kendrick was going to leave as a free agent, but he didn't find much out there and re-signed in late January. He batted .295 with nine home runs and 54 RBIs in 2015 and will hit second.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.275, 28 HRs, 90 RBIs) is Mr. Consistent and bats third. He's followed by underrated third baseman Justin Turner (.294, 16 HRs, 60 RBIs) and left fielder Andre Either (.294, 14 HRs, 53 RBIs). Carl Crawford is still around and he will also play left at times but appears to be the odd man out for now. The Dodgers would still love to trade Ethier or Crawford, but they'd have to eat too much salary.

The key to the lineup is likely mercurial Yasiel Puig, who is in right field and slotted for sixth. He was limited to 79 games last year and hit just .255 with 11 homers. Puig apparently isn't liked much in the clubhouse, either. He could also be facing a suspension because he was involved in a fight with a bouncer at a Miami bar after an argument with his sister in November. If Puig can get his head on straight, he could be an MVP candidate.

Catcher Yasmani Grandal (.234, 16 HRs, 47 RBIs) and center fielder Joc Pederson (.210, 26 HRs, 54 RBIs) round things out. Pederson was the NL Rookie of the Year favorite even over Kris Bryant at last season's All-Star break but then fell off a cliff in the second half.

Dodgers 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

L.A. was fifth in the majors in ERA last season thanks in large part to the best 1-2 rotation punch in MLB in Kershaw and Greinke. L.A. wanted to re-sign Greinke after he opted out of his deal, but the Diamondbacks swooped in with crazy money. Greinke was the Cy Young runner-up after going 19-3 with league-best 1.66 ERA.

Obviously, there's no replacing Greinke, but the Dodgers still have the incomparable Kershaw atop the rotation. He was 16-7 with a 2.13 ERA and MLB and career-high 301 strikeouts. It was the first 300-strikeout season by anyone since 2002. The Dodgers also bring back lefties Brett Anderson (10-9, 3.69 ERA) and midseason trade acquisition Alex Wood (12-12, 3.84). Anderson is always an injury worry and Wood was disappointing after coming over from Atlanta in trade at the deadline.

To fill Greinke's shoes, the team went with depth, inking lefty Scott Kazmir (7-11, 3.10) and Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda. The latter got an unusual eight-year deal that limits the Dodgers' liability because it's a near certainty that he will need Tommy John surgery at some point due to some irregularities in his right elbow. Maeda, 28, was 97-67 with a 2.39 ERA in eight seasons in Japan's top league. He's not seen as an ace like Yu Darvish but a mid-rotation guy. The Dodgers are also hoping Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu can be ready by late April or early May off shoulder surgery that cost him all of 2015.

The bullpen might have been the best in the majors this season, but a deal for Cincinnati's Aroldis Chapman fell through because of his legal issues. Kenley Jensen (36 saves, 2.41 ERA) retains the closing spot.

Dodgers Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Los Angeles is +1000 to win the World Series, +550 to win the NL pennant and a +150 second-favorite in the NL West. The Dodgers have an "over/under" wins total of 90.5, with both at -115. Pederson is +6600 to lead the majors in homers, Puig is +10000 and Gonzalez is +20000. Kershaw is the +150 Cy Young favorite. L.A. was 73-89 against the spread last season and 78-79-5 O/U.

Dodgers 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Los Angeles to finish 91-71 and win the NL West by six games over San Francisco. I know a lot of people are on the Giants' bandwagon with their offseason moves, but I believe the Dodgers will win the West again -- barring injury to Kershaw. There are really no glaring holes on the team, especially once Ryu is healthy. And you know the team will spend money to add help if need be. Go over the wins but no pennant.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Texas Rangers Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Normally when you trade a large chunk of your better prospects for a star-level player at baseball's July 31 trade deadline, it's just with the current season in mind. That's why no one really understood why the Texas Rangers sent five prospects (and pitcher Matt Harrison's contract) to the Philadelphia Phillies for Cole Hamels at last year's deadline. Nothing wrong with getting Hamels as he was on a long-term deal, but why not wait until the offseason when the price might be a bit lower? After all, Texas was 50-52 last July 31 and seven games out of the AL West lead. Remember, too, that ace pitcher Yu Darvish was out for the season.

Clearly GM Jon Daniels knows what he's doing. Thanks in part to that Hamels deal, the Rangers exploded in the second half of the 2015 season and won the division with an 88-74 mark. Texas took a 2-0 lead in the ALDS against the heavily favored Blue Jays, winning those two in Toronto. However, the Rangers dropped both at home and Game 5 back in Toronto thanks in part to one of the wildest innings in baseball history (the seventh).

Still, it was a hugely-successful season when not a whole lot was expected after Darvish went down in the spring with an elbow injury. First-year manager Jeff Banister was named the AL Manger of the Year and rewarded with a contract extension. And now that Hamels is in place, Texas could have a killer top of the rotation once Darvish is back.

Texas opens the season April 4 at home vs. Seattle.

Rangers 2016 Projected Lineup

The team was very quiet this offseason in terms of adding a potential every-day piece until the Rangers signed former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond to a one-year, $8 million deal on Monday. That's a terrific low-risk, high-reward deal for Texas. Desmond was languishing on the market because he was tied to draft pick compensation. He was offered about a $110 million extension by Washington entering last season. He hit 24 homers and knocked in 91 in 2014 and won three Silver Slugger Awards at shortstop overall. True, Desmond struggled for much of 2015, batting .233 with 19 homers and 62 RBIs. He also made a National League-high 27 errors. Desmond won't play short in Texas but will move to left field because the projected starter there, Josh Hamilton, is hurt again. He might be back in May, but it's pretty clear at this point Hamilton's days as a full-time player are over. The Rangers can't hide him at DH because they have Prince Fielder there.

Center fielder Delino DeShields (.261, 25 steals) is the leadoff hitter. Right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (.276, 22 HRs, 82 RBIs), who had a nice bounce-back season in 2015, bats second. Then comes Fielder, who was last year's AL Comeback Player of the Year. After playing just 42 games in 2014 and having neck surgery, Fielder played 158 games in 2015 and hit.305 with 23 homers and 98 RBIs. Fielder finished in the Top 10 in the league in batting average, on-base percentage, games played and RBIs.

Fielder is followed in the lineup by third baseman Adrian Beltre (.287, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs), who shows little sign of slowing down even though he will be 37 early next month. Desmond is potential injury insurance at third as well. Underrated Mitch Moreland (.278, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs) bats fifth, followed by Desmond or perhaps Hamilton if they platoon at some point, shortstop Elvis Andrus (.258 62 RBIs), one of the most overpaid players in the majors, rising star Rougned Odor (.261, 16 HRs, 61RBIs) at second and Robinson Chirinos behind the plate.

If Beltre or a corner outfielder gets hurt, the Rangers can call up top slugging prospect Joey Gallo. He got a cup of coffee in the majors last season and showed his prodigious power but also the fact he strikes out a ton. Texas finished third in MLB in runs last season and should be a Top 5 team again -- especially with 81 games in that jetstream that is Globe Life Park in Arlington in the dog days of summer.

Rangers 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The big loss from the rotation is righty Yovani Gallardo, who was very solid with a 13-11 record and 3.42 ERA 184 1/3 innings en route to 4.1 Wins Above Replacement in 2015. He recently signed with Baltimore.

The Rangers' success largely hinges on Darvish's return from Tommy John surgery. He's simply a true ace and was an All-Star his first three seasons. Darvish has been throwing without pain in spring camp but not at full bore yet. After all, the guy hasn't pitched in a major-league game since Aug. 9, 2014. Don't look for Darvish before mid-May at the earliest.

Hamels was 7-1 with a 3.66 ERA after coming over from Philadelphia, and he has proven as durable and consistent as any pitcher in baseball. You know what you will get from him: around 15 wins, a mid-3.00 ERA (in the better-hitting AL), 200-some strikeouts and 200-some innings. Fellow lefty Derek Holland has made just 15 starts the past two seasons because of major surgery of his own but appears 100 percent now. He's terrific when healthy. Colby Lewis (17-9, 4.66), clearly a beneficiary of some good run support last year, Martin Perez (3-6, 4.46) and Nick Martinez (7-7, 3.96) round out the rotation.

Closer Shawn Tolleson had 35 saves in 37 chances last season with a 2.99 ERA.

That's not a pitching staff I believe makes the playoffs unless Darvish is back healthy and to previous form come summer.

Rangers Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Texas is +2000 to win its first World Series, +900 to win the AL pennant, +400 to repeat in the AL West and has an "over/under" wins total of 83.5, with both options at -115. Fielder is +8000 to lead the majors in homers. Hamels is +2000 to win the Cy Young. The Rangers were 96-66 against the spread last season and 72-80-10 O/U.

Rangers 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Texas to finish 80-82 and fourth in the AL West, seven games behind first-place Houston. I tend to agree for the most part. You see every year one team get hot after the All-Star break to reach the playoffs then fall back to expected levels the next season. Texas does have the budget to make a big trade if necessary. But go under those wins as the AL West will be very tough.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Houston Astros Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

The Chicago Cubs get all the publicity in baseball entering the 2016 season because they were a team with a group of touted prospects who arrived in the playoffs a year ahead of schedule in 2015. But the Houston Astros are the American League version of the Cubs. And with all due respect to all of Chicago's young talent, there is no player with more upside in baseball than Astros shortstop Carlos Correa.

You sort of saw Houston's rise coming last season if you really paid attention. From 2011-13, they lost at least 106 games each year. But Houston improved to 70-92 in 2014. The Astros led the AL West for a large chunk of last season before fading a bit late and finishing 86-76, second in the division and two games behind Texas.


But that record earned the Astros the AL's second wild-card spot. And behind ace lefty Dallas Keuchel, the Astros went to Yankee Stadium and won 3-0 as Keuchel threw a three-hitter pitching on short rest for the first time in his career. It was Houston's first playoff game since being swept in the 2005 World Series.

Frankly, Houston should have then beaten Kansas City in the ALDS. With the Astros leading the series 2-1 following another strong Keuchel performance in Game 3, they found themselves up 6-2 at home entering the top of the eighth inning of Game 4. But a Correa error helped open the floodgates as the Royals scored five in the eighth and two in the ninth for a 9-6 victory. Johnny Cueto then dominated Houston in the clinching Game 5.

Still, a hugely successful season and one that should portend the Astros as AL contenders for the rest of the decade as ownership finally has shown it will spend some money. It also got first-year manager A.J. Hinch a contract extension.

Houston opens the season with a wild-card rematch at Yankee Stadium on April 4.

Astros 2016 Projected Lineup

The only two players Houston lost of note last season from the lineup were first baseman/DH Chris Carter and infielder Jed Lowrie. Carter hit 24 homers but also .199 and was a strikeout machine. So neither loss hurts.

One of my favorite players in baseball is Astros diminutive All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve, and he leads off. The 2014 AL batting champion followed that up with another very strong season, batting a team-best .313 with 15 homers, 66 RBIs and 38 steals. Is there a better second baseman or leadoff hitter in baseball? He will be followed by right fielder George Springer (.276, 16 HRs, 41 RBIs, 16 steals), formerly one of the team's top prospects. Springer has had a problem staying healthy in his short career, but he's a huge talent.

If you held a draft today where every player in baseball was available, I'm sure some GMs would take Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. But I'd be willing to bet a majority would take Correa, who plays short and bats third. The 2012 No. 1 overall pick was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015. Correa wasn't called up until June 8 and still hit .279 with 22 homers, 68 RBIs and 14 steals. His home run rate of one every 17.6 at-bats was the best of any AL rookie shortstop ever with at least 400 at-bats. Correa led all shortstops in baseball in home runs, slugging percentage (.512) and OPS (.857) despite ranking 27th among shortstops in plate appearances. This guy is going to be a superstar along Alex Rodriguez proportions -- that's whom he's often compared to (the young, clean version of A-Rod). Correa won't even be 22 until late September.

Evan Gattis (.247, 27 HRs, 88 RBIs) will DH and hit cleanup. He had hernia surgery in early February, but the team thinks he will be ready for Opening Day. Center fielder Carlos Gomez (.255, 12 HRs, 56 RBIs, 17 steals) will hit fifth. He was acquired at the trade deadline from Milwaukee and was moderately disappointing but did battle injuries. Left fielder Colby Rasmus (25 HRs, 61 RBIs) took the team's one-year qualifying offer to return.

The rest of the lineup should be third baseman Luis Valbuena (25 HRs, 56 RBIs), first baseman Jon Singleton and catcher Jason Castro. Singleton was once a top prospect but has struggled mightily and could platoon with Matt Duffy. Valbuena also can play first. Or the team could eventually turn to prospect A.J. Reed. If there's one spot in the lineup that looks worrisome, it's there.

Houston was second in the majors in homers last year and second in strikeouts. Expect more of the same. The only guy in the lineup who doesn't whiff a lot is Altuve.

Astros 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The rotation is led by Keuchel, who won the 2015 AL Cy Young. He led all AL pitchers in innings (232.0), WAR (7.2) and WHIP (1.02) and also had a 2.48 ERA and 216 strikeouts. Keuchel was a crazy 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA at Minute Maid Park, which is supposed to be hitter-friendly. If there's one worry, it's that Keuchel threw by far his most career innings last season, but he's only 28. Guy will make only $7.2 million this season, an absolute steal.

Solid right-hander Collin McHugh (19-7, 3.89) and promising youngster Lance McCullers (6-7, 3.22) follow Keuchel. I loved Houston's low-risk, high-reward signing of Doug Fister, who slots in at No. 4. He got a one-year, $7 million deal after struggling to a 5-7 record and 4.19 ERA with Washington last year. But the year before that he was 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA. He has been very good since 2011 except for last year.

The No. 5 slot likely will be a camp battle between Scott Feldman and Mike Fiers, who came over in that Gomez trade with the Brewers. The Astros dealt two members of last year's rotation in young right-hander Vincent Velasquez and lefty Brett Oberholtzer to acquire Phillies stud closer Ken Giles. He is one of the hardest-throwers in the majors and had 15 saves and a 1.80 ERA for a terrible Phillies team in 2015. The Astros had the lowest average fastball velocity of any bullpen in the majors last season at 91.1 mph. Giles threw 193 fastballs at 98 mph or higher last year. He bumps former closer Luke Gregerson to a set-up role.

Astros Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Houston is +1400 to win its first World Series, +650 to take its first AL pennant, a +105 favorite in the AL West and has an "over/under" wins total of 88. Both options are -115. Correa is +1600 to win AL MVP and Altuve is +2500. Correa is +5000 to lead the majors in homers with Springer at the same price and Gattis at +6600. Keuchel is +600 to win the AL Cy Young again and McHugh is +6600.

Astros 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Houston to finish 87-75 and win the AL West by five games over Seattle. I could legitimately see every team but Oakland win that division this year. It's probably the second-hardest to forecast after the AL Central. But with a full season of Correa and Gomez, a potentially rejuvenated and motivated Fister and a lights-out closer in Giles, this is my AL West champion. Go over the wins. I don' t think this is a pennant team barring a midseason acquisition, however. Not ready to say Correa will win an MVP yet, but it's coming.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Los Angeles Angels Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Mike Scioscia is a good manger, no question. The former big-league catcher is the longest-tenured manager in the majors, having been on the Halos' bench since 2000. But sometimes a team needs a new face or vision at manager after that long. And I'm not sure Scioscia survives 2016 if the Angels either: 1) get off to a slow start, which could lead to an in-season change; or 2) fail to make the playoffs again.

I thought L.A. would win the AL West last season off a 98-win year in 2014, but the Angels finished at 85-77. That was third in the division, three games behind Texas and one game behind division-rival Houston for the AL's second wild-card spot. Los Angeles had a chance to clinch a one-game playoff with the Astros on the final day of the regular season as Houston lost, but L.A. was bombed by Texas 9-2.

So that's five times in the past six seasons the Angels have missed the playoffs, and that one year they did make it, 2014, they were swept by underdog Kansas City in the ALDS. Yet Scioscia still yields more power than any manager in baseball, including winning a personnel battle with General Manager Jerry Dipoto, who resigned last midseason because of a rift with his manager. Does Scioscia have some incriminating pictures of owner Arte Moreno or something? Moreno can't possibly keep Scioscia on after this year with another disappointing season and one of the highest payrolls in baseball.

And it's really now or never for the Angels because they have the worst farm system in baseball by a mile, so there's no in-house help on the way. ESPN's Keith Law called it the worst system he had ever seen since starting his ratings.

Los Angeles opens the season at home against the Cubs on April 4.

Angels 2016 Projected Lineup

L.A. opted not to bring back third baseman David Freese (.257, 14 HRs, 56 RBIs), who as of this writing is surprisingly still unsigned by any team, and catcher Chris Iannetta (.188, 10 HRs, 34 RBIs). The two big additions were infielder Yunel Escobar, who came over in trade from Washington, and shortstop Andrelton Simmons, acquired in a deal from Atlanta that cost the Angels the best of their remaining prospects and last year's starting shortstop Erick Aybar.

Escobar is coming off a solid offensive season in which he batted .314 with nine homers and 56 RBIs in 139 games in Washington He will take over for Freese at third. Escobar doesn't have Freese's power but will get on base more. Simmons doesn't do much at the plate, while Aybar was a good hitter, but Simmons is without peer defensively at shortstop.

Right fielder Kole Calhoun will bat first and he's not your typical leadoff hitter as he had an on-base percentage of just .308 last year and doesn't run much, but he also slugged 26 homers and had 83 RBIs. He will be followed by Escobar and then the best player in the majors, center fielder Mike Trout. He finished second in the AL MVP voting last year for a third time in his four seasons (winning it in 2014), hitting .299 with a career-high 41 homers (led AL in slugging) along with 90 RBIs and 11 steals. You could argue it was his worst all-around season yet it was still fabulous. He led the AL in offensive WAR at 8.9. The guy is just 24.

If healthy, Albert Pujols will hit cleanup and play first base. He had surgery in November on his foot, and it wasn't clear if he would be ready for Opening Day, but that's looking likely now. Pujols did hit 40 homers last year but clearly is in decline as he only batted .244, easily a career low. He's simply breaking down, and that massive contract looks worse and worse. Pujols will certainly DH at times this season as well.

The rest of the lineup: DH C.J. Cron (.262, 16 HRs, 51 RBIs), left fielder Daniel Nava (.194, 1 HR, 10 RBIs with Rays and Red Sox), Simmons (.265, 44 RBIs), catcher Carlos Perez (.250, 4 HRs, 21 RBIs) and second baseman Johnny Giavotella (.272, 4 HRs, 49 RBIs).

That's a pretty weak last four of the lineup, and there's a gaping hole in left field. The Angels were rumored to be interested in several big-name free-agent outfielders to play there but they don't want to pay the luxury tax.

Angels 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Already there is a worry here. Former ace Jered Weaver was rocked for six hits, three homers, in 2.2 innings in Wednesday's Cactus League game and then complained after of some neck trouble. Weaver was hitting just 80 mph on his fastball. An MRI showed tightening of the nerves in his neck. That by itself shouldn't be major, but Weaver isn't close to what he once was, going 7-12 with a 4.64 ERA last season. He'll make $20 million this season. Yikes!

The new ace is right-hander Garrett Richards. He got a slightly late start last season after an ACL tear cut short his stellar 2014, but Richards was still a very good 15-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 201.7 innings in 2015. He'll be followed by another hugely overpaid veteran who is on the downside of his career: lefty C.J. Wilson. He was limited to 21 starts and was 8-8 with a 3.89 ERA in 2015. He will also make $20 million this season. But at least the deals of he and Weaver, who slots in at No. 3, are off the books in 2017.

The rest of the rotation is promising young left-hander Andrew Heaney (6-4, 3.49 ERA) and righty Matt Shoemaker (7-10, 4.46 ERA). Lefty Hector Santiago was an All-Star last season and finished 9-9 with a 3.59 ERA but right now looks ticketed for the bullpen. However, Wilson is having some shoulder issues in camp -- and had offseason elbow surgery -- so he could open on the DL and Santiago would be back in the rotation. The team also is hoping lefty Tyler Skaggs will be ready at some point early in the season after missing all of last year following Tommy John surgery.

The Angels are solid at closer with Huston Street (40 saves, 3.18 ERA).

Angels Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Los Angeles is +3300 to win the World Series, +1600 for the AL pennant, +525 in the AL West and has an "over/under" of 81.5 wins, with the under a -135 favorite. Trout is a +150 favorite to win a second AL MVP and is +1000 to win the big-league home-run title. Pujols is +5000 on that prop. Richards is +2000 to win the Cy Young.

Angels 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Los Angeles to finish 81-81 and third in the AL West, six games behind Houston. This team is going to have to win a lot of 6-5 games. I'd definitely go over most Angels totals in 2015. I'm going to go over the win totals, but it won't be by much: maybe 84-78. But if Trout gets hurt for any extended duration, this club might finish in the AL West basement. And I don't see him winning MVP or leading the majors in homers. Trout will be pitched around often because Pujols simply is a one-trick pull-hitting pony hitting behind him at this point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 San Francisco Giants Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

It didn't exactly take a genius to realize that the San Francisco Giants were going to miss the playoffs in 2015. After all, it was an odd-numbered season.

The Giants finished 84-78, second in the NL West and eight games behind the Dodgers. They stayed in the race in the division until a closing 15-19 run. The playoffs were never an option as they were 13 games out of a wild-card spot because the NL Central was so good. It's the third time this decade that San Francisco missed the playoffs in an odd-numbered year.

The Giants saw a ton of injuries to their rotation last year, other than to ace Madison Bumgarner. And one of their best offensive players, outfielder Hunter Pence, could barely stay on the field. It's credit to Manager Bruce Bochy, one of the best in the business, that this club won 84 games. The team did get breakout seasons from rookie pitcher Chris Heston as well as shortstop Brandon Crawford and rookie third baseman Matt Duffy

San Francisco opens the season April 4 at Milwaukee and, not surprisingly, already has named Bumgarner as the starter. I probably don't need to tell you that the Giants have won the World Series in the past three even-numbered seasons. They were not favorites for any of those titles.

Giants 2016 Projected Lineup

This probably will never be a dynamic offensive team post-Barry Bonds because AT&T Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly in the majors and the team builds its roster that way. The Giants ranked 12th in MLB in runs last year and hit only 136 homers, which tied for 26th. Without a healthy Pence, the Giants had one of the worst offensive outfields in baseball and they said goodbye to slap-hitting Nori Aoki and late-season addition Marlon Byrd this offseason. No real losses there.

The main lineup addition was Denard Span, and he'll play center field and leadoff. Span's a very good player but largely languished on the free-agent market because he was injury-prone in 2015. He batted .301 with five homers, 22 RBIs and a .365 on-base percentage in 61 games. Span has averaged 9.34 plate appearances per strikeout the past five seasons, the fourth-best figure among big league outfielders. That's what the Giants want: contact hitters.

Second baseman Joe Panik (.312, 8 HRs, 37 RBIs) follows him. Good player. Then comes the team's most important guy, catcher Buster Posey (.318, 19 HRs, 95 RBIs). You wonder how much longer the Giants will keep him at catcher, the most physically grueling position in MLB, instead of moving him to first base full-time like the Twins did with Joe Mauer. Posey will be 29 later this month. He got 394 at-bats last year as a catcher and 146 at first. Expect similar splits.

Pence (.275, 9 HRs, 40 RBIs) will play right field and bat fourth. He broke his arm early last spring and kept getting hurt, playing in only 52 games. He already has some Achilles' issues this spring. I have little confidence he plays 100 games.

Few teams have a better left side of the infield than San Francisco, with Duffy (.295, 12 HRs, 77 RBIs) batting fifth and Crawford (.256, 21 HRs, 84 RBIs) in the No. 6 hole. Duffy would have been in the Rookie of the Year conversation many years but not with Kris Bryant around in 2015. Crawford, who won a Gold Glove last year, was rewarded with a big extension this offseason. First baseman Brandon Belt (.280, 18 HRs, 68 RBIs) and left fielder Angel Pagan (.262, 37 RBI) round out the lineup. Both those guys were unable to play 140 games last year due to injury.

This lineup is pretty solid 1-8 with no glaring holes. No guy who terrifies you except maybe Posey. And probably no one who hits 25 dingers unless Belt plays in 155 games. But it won't strike out a ton and will get on base -- a West Coast version of the Royals.

Giants 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Bumgarner and Heston were the only Giants pitchers to make more than 22 starts or qualify for the ERA title in 2015. The team has said goodbye to three members of that rotation in Tim Hudson, who retired, Mike Leake, a trade acquisition from Cincinnati last July, and Ryan Vogelsong. Tim Lincecum also has moved on, but he hasn't been good for a few years.

The lefty Bumgarner (18-9, 2.93) is one of the Top-10 pitchers on the planet and is a playoff marvel. He's also on a tremendously team-friendly contract and a very good hitter. The Giants spent big to fortify that rotation on free-agent right-handers Johnny Cueto (11-13, 3.44) and Jeff Samardzija (11-13, 4.96) to slot in at No. 2 and No. 3. Both took their lumps in the AL last season, especially Samardzija with the White Sox. Cueto had some regular-season struggles after being traded to the Royals but looked good in the playoffs. The Giants figure a return to the NL and pitching half their games in AT&T Park will return each to previous form. Cueto took a scary line drive off his head in Cactus League action on Monday. He escaped with just a contusion, but might he now wear one of those unique helmet/hats while pitching?

Jake Peavy (8-6, 3.58) slots in at No. 4 and he's just a six-inning guy at this point. The No. 5 will either be Heston (12-11, 3.95), who threw a no-hitter last year, or Matt Cain (2-4, 5.79). He has been a mega-bust since signing a huge contract a few years ago. Cain can't stay healthy and had surgery to remove a cyst from his right arm last month. He was expected to make his spring debut this weekend. Expecting anything from him at this point is not wise. He probably starts the year on the DL again.

The bullpen lost lefty setup man Jeremy Affeldt to free agency but still has stud righty Sergio Romo ahead of closer Santiago Casilla (38 saves, 2.79 ERA). It's not impossible the Giants bring back Lincecum, a fan favorite, for a bullpen role if he remains out there.

Giants Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

San Francisco is +900 to win the World Series, +450 for the NL pennant, +125 in the NL West and has an "over/under" of 88.5 wins, with both at -115. Bumgarner is +1000 to win the Cy Young with Cueto at +2000 and Samardzija at +5000. That the Cy Young winner comes from the Giants is +500. Posey is +1200 to NL MVP. The Giants don't have any players on the prop to lead the majors in homers and they shouldn't.

Giants 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects San Francisco to finish 87-75 and second in the NL West, six games behind the Dodgers. Is there one World Series team more reliant on just two players -- Posey and Bumgarner -- than the Giants? I mean, the Cubs could lose Jon Lester and Anthony Rizzo, for example, and still be a contender. San Francisco 100 percent has to keep both those guys healthy. The infield is excellent, but the outfield is blah. Rotation looks pretty good 1-3. Bullpen very solid. I'm going under the wins, believe Giants finish third in the NL West and miss the playoffs. No individual awards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Washington Nationals Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Count me among the fooled last year. I was one of many who thought the Washington Nationals were going to be the best team in baseball in 2015 after adding Max Scherzer to an already loaded starting rotation. I mean, how could a team with Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister in the rotation and a very good lineup led by Bryce Harper not make the playoffs?

Despite a very good season from Scherzer and a monster MVP campaign from Harper, the Nats finished just 83-79 an second in the NL East, seven games behind the Mets. The team won 13 fewer games than in 2014, which was the second-largest drop among National League teams (behind the Brewers at 14).

Every time I see the Nationals fall short of expectations, I go back to the 2012 season when the team stupidly, in my opinion, shut down Strasburg in September instead of just cutting back his innings and keeping him available for the playoffs like the Mets did with Matt Harvey in 2015. I believe those '12 Nationals win the World Series with Strasburg in there but instead they choked away Game 5 of the NLDS to St. Louis and have a single playoff win since then.

As he should have been, Manager Matt Williams was fired following last season's disappointment. He appeared to have lost the clubhouse when Jonathan Papelbon choked Harper in the dugout in the final week. Somehow Papelbon is still on the team. There was talk the Nats were maybe looking again to hire Cal Ripken Jr. as their manager, but the failures of Williams in his first managing job led Washington to experienced Dusty Baker. Great regular-season manager but doesn't have a good playoff track record. Baker has managed 1,671 games over 20 seasons without having won a World Series title, which puts him second only to Gene Mauch. Originally the club was to hire Bud Black, but that fell apart over contract negotiations in an embarrassing episode.

Washington opens the season April 4 at Atlanta.

Nationals 2016 Projected Lineup

Washington lost some good players off last year's lineup: shortstop Ian Desmond (although he disappointed in 2015), infielder Yunel Escobar, and center fielder and leadoff hitter Denard Span, who had trouble staying healthy last year.

One offseason addition was center fielder Ben Revere, acquired from Toronto for reliever Drew Storen -- I guarantee you that the Nats would have preferred to trade Papelbon, but there were no takers for his big contract. Revere is coming off a career-best season at the plate in which he batted .306 with a .719 OPS and 31 steals for the Phillies, where he started last season, and Blue Jays. Revere will lead off. He will be followed by third baseman Anthony Rendon, who was limited to 80 games last year and hit .264 with five homers and 25 RBIs.

Then comes the right fielder Harper, who was a Triple Crown candidate in 2015 in hitting .330 (second in NL) with 42 homers (tied for first in NL) and 99 RBIs. He led the majors in on-base percentage at .460 as he drew a whopping 124 walks as well as leading in slugging percentage at .649. Harper became the youngest unanimous MVP in MLB history. Only seven previous players, most of them Hall of Famers, produced a season with numbers that matched Harper's batting average, home runs, OBP and slugging mark. He might be the first $500 million player when he's a free agent after the 2018 season.

Injury-prone first baseman Ryan Zimmerman (.249, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs) and injury-prone and declining left fielder Jayson Werth (.221, 12 HRs, 42 RBIs) immediately follow Harper. Then comes the second new every-day addition: second baseman Daniel Murphy, formerly of the Mets. He hit .281 with 14 HRs and 73 RBIs during the regular season and then turned into Babe Ruth in the NL playoffs with a homer in a record six straight playoff games.

Shortstop Danny Espinosa (.240, 13 HRs, 37 RBIs) and catcher Wilson Ramos (.229, 15 HRs, 68 RBIs) close out the lineup. Espinosa is only keeping the seat warm for top shortstop prospect Trea Turner. Stephen Drew could also factor in a short or second base if Murphy gets hurt.

The Nationals were 10th in the majors in runs last season, but not much here scares anyone outside of Harper. He might get walked 150 times this year.

Nationals 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The rotation said goodbye to Zimmermann and Fister in free agency. Fister struggled and was injured some last year, but Zimmermann was again quite good with 13 wins and a 3.66 ERA. The Nats added Bronson Arroyo in free agency, but he's now dealing with a partially torn rotator cuff. That's actually good news as the team thought it was fully torn. So he should only miss 4-6 weeks. Arroyo really was signed more as insurance than anything.

Scherzer was mostly dominant in his return to the National League in 2015. He had two no-hitters, concluding his season with one and striking out 17 Mets. Scherzer was the first pitcher since Nolan Ryan in 1973 to throw two no-hitters in the same regular season and the fifth to do it in major-league history. His other one in June against Pittsburgh was a perfect game until he plunked the 27th batter. Scherzer finished 14-12 with a 2.79 ERA, fanning 276 (second in NL).

Strasburg (11-11, 3.46) still hasn't really lived up to expectations and made only 23 starts last year due to injury, but he was really overpowering after returning from it with a 1.73 ERA in his final 13 starts. Strasburg is the marquee free agent next winter, and he's going to test the market. Some team will give him $30 million a year, and it's not going to be Washington.

Gonzalez (11-8, 3.79), the lone lefty in the rotation, Tanner Roark (4-7, 4.38) and Joe Ross (5-5, 3.64) round out the rotation. Papelbon (24 saves, 2.13 ERA) closes things out. Keep in mind that the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball is considered to be Washington's Lucas Giolito, so he could be a factor at some point this season.

Nationals Futures Odds & 2015 Trends

Washington is +1400 to win the World Series, +700 for the NL pennant, +115 in the NL East (second behind the Mets) and has an "over/under" wins total of 88.5, with the over a -120 favorite. Harper is +1000 to lead the majors in homers and the +200 favorite to repeat as NL MVP. Rendon is +5000 for MVP. Scherzer is +1000 for Cy Young, with Strasburg at +1400 and Gonzalez +10000. That the NL Cy Young winner comes from Washington is +550.

Nationals 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Washington to finish 88-74 and second in the NL East, one game behind the Mets. When considering wins totals for NL East teams, keep in mind that Atlanta and Philadelphia both project to be really terrible, so the division teams can maybe get 30 combined wins against those two. I originally had the Mets finishing second this year to the Nationals in the division, but that was before New York was able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. So I'd probably peg Washington a very close second with the knowledge that the Nats will go spend money at the deadline if need be and New York probably won't. I'll go over that wins total. I don't think Harper repeats as MVP but I'm throwing a few dollars on Scherzer for Cy Young.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Minnesota Twins Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

I'm not exactly predicting this, but if you are looking for a team to take an Astros/Cubs-type leap as those formerly downtrodden franchises did in 2015, the Minnesota Twins are a pretty good candidate to be said club this season. One of baseball's top farm systems is beginning to reap rewards on the big-league level.

Under first-year manager and Hall of Fame player Paul Molitor, who was third in AL Manager of the Year voting, the Twins finished 83-79 last season and second in the AL Central, 12 games behind Kansas City. But Minnesota was in the wild-card chase down to the final days. Alas, the team lost four of its final five games. Those 83 wins were 13 more than 2014's total and Minnesota finished with a winning record for the first time since 2010, which is the last time the team made the playoffs (and won the division).

I'll just cut to the chase here and say that I don't think the Twins have enough pitching to win the very deep AL Central, but Miguel Sano looks like a future MVP candidate. The jury is still out on Byron Buxton, who at one point was the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball.

Minnesota opens the season April 4 in Baltimore.

Twins 2016 Projected Lineup

Minnesota, in part hampered by Joe Mauer's obscene contract, is simply never going to make a huge splash in free agency, and this offseason was no different. The Twins saw outfielder Torii Hunter retire after 19 big-league seasons. Hunter played 12 years with the Twins, including last season when he came back on a one-year deal. He's an all-time fan favorite in the Twin Cities. Minnesota also upgraded catcher situation by acquiring John Ryan Murphy from the Yankees for outfielder Aaron Hicks, although Murphy projects as the backup this season. Hicks hit .256 with 11 homers and 33 RBIs in 352 at-bats in 2015.

The Twins used 124 different batting orders last season and no lineup more than seven times. So take this projected lineup with a grain of salt.

The leadoff hitter is second baseman Brian Dozier, who has probably the most power of any at his position in the majors these days as Dozier hit 28 homers and knocked in 77 last year. Then comes Mauer, who is now a full-time first baseman. He will make $23 million this season and the next two. What a disaster that deal has been. Mauer hit just .265 with 10 homers and 66 RBIs last year; those would be great numbers for a catcher but not a corner infielder.

Then comes Sano, who plays right field. This guy is a beast in the Giancarlo Stanton mode. Sano, who turns 23 in May, hit .269 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs in only 279 at-bats last season. He's followed by underrated third baseman Trevor Plouffe (.244, 22 HRs, 86 RBIs) and left fielder Eddie Rosario (.267, 13 HRs, 50 RBIs).

Minnesota's main every-day addition this offseason was signing Korean slugger Byung Ho Park, and he projects to hit sixth and play DH. When you are a small-market team like the Twins, you have to take chances on foreign guys sometimes. Park got $12 million over four years after the Twins won the bidding for him at $12.85 million. The winning bid was the second-largest bid ever paid to negotiate with an Asian position player behind the $13 million the Mariners paid for Ichiro Suzuki. That worked out pretty well. But Park is nothing like Ichiro as Park hit .343 with 53 homers and 146 RBIs last season in the Korea Baseball Organization. He's a two-time MVP of that league.

Shortstop Eduardo Escobar (.262, 12 HRs, 58 RBIs) and catcher Kurt Suzuki (.240, 5 HRs, 50 RBIs) follow Park. And that brings us to Buxton, the center fielder hitting ninth and a five-tool player. He looked a bit overmatched last year as a 21-year-old, hitting just .209 with two homers and 44 strikeouts in 129 at-bats. He's also struggling this spring so it's not impossible he begins the season in Triple-A or is sent down at some point, but the Twins want him to stay up for good.

Twins 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

Minnesota has had issues with its rotation for a while. The Twins' starters went from posting the worst ERA in the majors in 2014 to the 16th-best in '15, going from a 5.06 ERA to a 4.14 ERA. So if another jump can be made, there might be something here. It's just there's really no true ace.

Ervin Santana (7-5, 4.00) was limited to 17 starts last year because of an 80-game suspension. So obviously another failed drug test and he's gone for a year. Santana's a solid enough pitcher but should be about a No. 4, not a No. 1. He was given a four-year, $55 million contract last offseason, the most money given to a free agent in team history.

Santana is followed by Kyle Gibson (11-11, 3.84) and Phil Hughes (11-9, 4.40). Hughes was a true ace in 2014 and earned a big new extension, but predictably he regressed to close to his career numbers last year. After throwing a career-high 209.2 innings in 2014, Hughes tossed just 155.1 innings in '15 after missing a month with a back injury.

The back end of the rotation will be decided in camp, but it's likely to be lefty Tommy Milone (9-5, 3.92) and maybe Ricky Nolasco (5-2, 6.75), who has been a monster bust since getting a big free-agent deal before the 2014 season. Tyler Duffey (5-1, 3.10) also is in the mix here.

Closer Glen Perkins (32 saves, 3.32 ERA) is solid enough but that's a high ERA for a closer.

Twins Futures Odds

Minnesota is +4500 to win the World Series, +2200 for the AL pennant, a +900 long shot in the AL Central and has an "over/under" wins total of 79.5, with the under a -125 favorite. Sano is +2000 to win the big-league home-run crown. He has an O/U of 29.5 dingers. No other player props are available yet for other Twins.

Twins 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Minnesota to finish 78-84 and fourth in the Central, eight games behind first-place Cleveland. I'm struggling with this team, to be honest. Molitor appears to be a very good manager, which can be worth something like five wins. I love Sano. Is Buxton ready to be a regular? Can the Twins afford help if they need it? I don't have the answers to those. I'm going under that wins total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Baltimore Orioles Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

Has the Baltimore Orioles' window to win the franchise's first pennant since 1983 already closed? I say yes.

In 2014, the Orioles were surprising AL East champions with 96 wins and reached the ALCS, where they were swept by Kansas City. The Birds did little that following offseason and several players regressed, which led to an 81-81 mark last year (awful 34-50 on road -- three home games lost due to civil unrest in Baltimore) and third-place finish in the division, 12 games behind Toronto. It was the team's first non-winning season since 2011, which was Manager Buck Showalter's first full season.

This team takes an unusual approach to free agency. And that is: It generally sits on the sidelines until February when it then gets guys at a discount. It worked ahead of the 2014 season with Nelson Cruz. This offseason? Not thrilling. Former Rangers pitcher Yovani Gallardo fell into their lap, but he's just a mid-rotation guy. The Orioles thought they had a deal with free-agent outfielder Dexter Fowler, and just about every media outlet in Baltimore reported that deal was done too. But Fowler spurned the Orioles and their three-year, $33 million offer for essentially a one-year, $13 million deal to return to Chicago. Fowler said he wanted to win and certainly the Cubs are in better shape to do that than the Birds.

The Orioles did spend around $215 million this offseason to re-sign Chris Davis and Matt Wieters and add reliever Darren O'Day and Korean outfielder Hyun Soo Kim, but is that enough to contend in the division? No sir. And the farm system isn't going to help anytime soon as touted young pitchers like Dylan Bundy have failed to make an impact yet; in Bundy's case largely due to injury.

Baltimore opens the season April 4 at home against Minnesota.

Orioles 2016 Projected Lineup

This lineup is going to jack a ton of homers again (2017 in 2015) but probably lead the American League, if not the majors, in strikeouts. The only significant losses were outfielder Gerardo Parra and outfielder/first baseman Steve Pearce. So nothing much to see there.

One of the most talented players in baseball, third baseman Manny Machado, is set to lead off. He's still just 23 and hit .286 with 35 homers, 86 RBIs and 20 steals last season while continuing to play stellar defense at the hot corner. Guy's a stud. Don't count on him playing all 162 games again, however.

It's somewhat tough to project how Baltimore will use its corner outfielders and thus the full lineup. Either Kim or Nolan Reimold should play left field and perhaps hit second. Kim hit .326 with a .438 on-base percentage, 28 home runs and 121 RBIs last season in the top Korean League. He appears to be a good contact hitter, and the Birds really need that as their .307 team on-base percentage was tied for third worst in the American League in 2015. Reimold hit .247 with six homers and 20 RBIs in 170 at-bats last year.

Center fielder Adam Jones, like Machado one of the best in the majors at his position, should hit third. He did battle some injuries in 2015 and hit .269 with 27 dingers, 82 RBIs and just three steals. So really it was his worst season since 2011 but still very good.

I believe the Orioles will regret giving Davis a seven-year, $161 extension when they were essentially bidding against themselves on the open market. Davis led the majors with 47 homers last season while knocking in 117 but also struck out 208 times. He also mashed in 2013, leading the majors in homers with 53, but struggled big time in 2014 and had a drug suspension. Davis will hit cleanup.

The O's traded for a lesser version of Davis in Mark Trumbo from Seattle. He hit .262 last year with 22 homers and 64 RBIs with the M's and Diamondbacks but is another all-or-nothing guy at the plate. Trumbo should hit fifth but where will he play? He's a terrible defender but probably ticketed for right field.

Will Pedro Alvarez follow Trumbo in the lineup? Alvarez is exactly the same type of player: good power, little contact and terrible defender. He was signed off the bargain bin after batting .243 with 27 homers and 77 RBI last year for Pittsburgh, which basically benched him late in the year and then just released Alvarez. I presume Alvarez will be the primary DH because he's not a good first baseman and can't play the outfield. But the O's would have been much better off with Fowler in right field and Trumbo at DH.

The rest of the lineup in some order should be catcher Matt Wieters (.267, 8 HRs, 25 RBIs, shortstop J.J. Hardy (.219, 8 HRs, 37 RBIs) and second baseman Jonathan Schoop (.279, 15 HRS, 39 RBIs). Wieters took the team's one-year qualifying offer because his value was pretty low after playing only 75 games last year off Tommy John surgery and struggling. Wieters has been dealing with some elbow trouble this spring and could open on the DL. Hardy was limited to 114 games and he's trending downward. Schoop is pretty underrated.

Powerful lineup for sure and I love Machado and Jones. But some square pegs in round holes in a few places. Not a very good defensive team other than at third in center.

Orioles 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

This is clearly the problem area. The Orioles' best starter last year was lefty Wei-Yin Chen (11-8, 3.34), who was the only regular rotation guy with an ERA under 4.00. He left in free agency. The Orioles' rotation pitched to a 4.53 ERA last year, 25th in baseball and that was with Chen.

Chris Tillman largely pitched like a No. 1 starter in 2013-14 but tailed off last year, going 11-11 with a 4.99 ERA in 31 games. He's not an overpowering guy that every rotation needs to win a playoff game.

Baltimore originally signed Gallardo to a three-year deal but then it was reworked to two years and a club option after some issue crept up in the physical. Gallardo, 30, has averaged 191 innings over the past seven seasons and has never had any significant shoulder or elbow injuries. So that's good. He was 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA with Texas in 2015.

The rotation should be filled out by Miguel Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman. That's not good. Gonzalez regressed to a 4.91 ERA and 9-12 mark last year, Jimenez (12-10, 4.11) simply stinks. Gausman (4-7, 4.25) was formerly a top prospect and teams around the league still ask about trading for him, but he hasn't put it together yet. He is dealing with some shoulder tendinitis as well and likely to miss the first week or two of the season. That can obviously lead to much worse things.

If the O's can get a lead to the eighth inning, they are in great shape with O'Day (1.52 ERA) setting up Zach Britton (36 saves, 1.92 ERA).

Orioles Futures Odds

Baltimore is +4000 to win the World Series, +2000 for the AL pennant, +900 in the AL East (long shot) and has an "over/under" wins total of 78.5, with the under a -125 favorite. Davis is +1200 to lead the majors in homers with Machado, Jones and Trumbo at +5000. Davis has an O/U of 36.5 dingers. Machado is +550 for AL MVP and Davis +3300.

Orioles 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Baltimore to finish 79-83 and last in the AL East, nine behind Boston. This will be a fun team to watch some nights and be involved in a lot of high-scoring games. But it's also going to be shutout a lot with so many big swingers in the lineup -- I love betting against those types of teams early in the year when it's still cold in some cities. I hate that pitching staff. Go under the wins but over Davis' homer total. Don't like the other individual props.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Cleveland Indians Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
by Alan Matthews

If my team can't win the World Series this season, and I'll keep quiet on who that is (have to stay impartial), then I hope the Cleveland Indians do it. That city really could use some good news with the sorry Browns and overrated Cavaliers. No Cleveland team has won a major sports title since 1964 when the Browns took the NFL championship.

Could the Tribe end that drought in 2016? From a pitching perspective, absolutely. I'm just not sure there's enough hitting or enough payroll flexibility to go get any.

It's very important for this team to get off to a good start. In each of Manager Terry Francona's three seasons, the Indians have stumbled out of the gates. In 2013, they were 11-13 through April. The following year they were 11-17 through April. Last season, they were 7-14. But the Indians usually close strong, and last year was no different as the Tribe had the fourth-most wins in the AL in the second half. But that hole was just too deep. Cleveland finished 81-80 (one postponed game not made up), good for third in the AL Central and the team's third straight winning record.

The division seems very winnable this season, but the Tribe again were very quiet in free agency. They also didn't lose anyone of note, I suppose. Cleveland opens the season on April 4 against Boston.

Indians 2016 Projected Lineup

First let's start with the team's best all-around player in left fielder and All-Star Michael Brantley. He was injured late last season on a diving catch attempt in Minnesota and had November surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The team was hoping he could avoid surgery altogether, so that was the reason for the delay. Originally, Brantley wasn't perhaps expected until June. Now? He just started playing in spring training games and could be ready for Opening Day. That's huge. Brantley hit .310 with 15 homers, 84 RBIs and 15 steals last year.

The Indians also have another potential outfield worry, as in February center fielder Abraham Almonte was suspended 80 games for testing positive for a PED. As with about every player, Almonte swore he didn't know how it got into his system. Yeah right. After he was acquired by the Indians at the 2015 trade deadline for reliever Marc Rzepczynski, Almonte played in 51 games for Cleveland, hitting .264 with five home runs and 20 RBIs.

The Indians did add free-agent outfielder Rajai Davis. He was a platoon player with the Tigers last year and had eight home runs, 30 RBIs and 15 steals. The club also added first baseman/DH Mike Napoli. He hit .224 with 18 home runs and 50 RBIs for Boston and Texas in 2015. Not too exciting.

Thus it's rather tough to project a batting order for this club right now because Brantley is so key to it all. He usually bats third. Second baseman Jason Kipnis (.300, 9 HRs, 52 RBIs) should lead off, and he's one of the best offensive players at his position in the game. Then likely shortstop Francisco Lindor, the team's former No. 1 prospect who looks like a future superstar. Lindor hit better in the majors than the minors, batting .313 with 15 HRs and 51 RBIs in 99 games. I'm not sure he's that good of a hitter, but he has a bright future.

Then presumably Brantley in the No. 3 hole, followed by Napoli and DH Carlos Santana (.231, 19 HRs, 85 RBIs), who has never lived up to his billing. The rest of the group likely will be right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall (.246, 7 HRs, 44 RBIs), who used to be the team's future at third base, catcher Yan Gomes (.231,12 HRs, 45 RBIs), new third baseman Juan Uribe (.253, 14 HRs, 43 RBIs) and Davis in center until Almonte comes back. Although a recent report from the Cleveland Plain Dealer says that Tyler Naguin could be the opening day starter in center. Naquin was limited to 84 games between Double- and Triple-A last season due to injury but is having a big spring.

That's not a very good lineup. The Indians were 18th in runs last year, and I don't see them being any better. This team made a mistake not adding an outfielder like an Ian Desmond or Dexter Fowler or Austin Jackson while they were lingering on the free-agent market. The Indians did just add Marlon Byrd. Not sure that solves anything.

Indians 2016 Projected Rotation & Closer

The rotation could be the best in the American League. It's led by 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, who had a very good 3.49 ERA and 245 strikeouts last year but was just 9-16 with little run support. He's a Top-10 guy in the majors. He'll be followed by Carlos Carrasco (14-12, 3.63) and Danny Salazar (14-10, 3.45). You have heard a lot of rumors that the Tribe might trade one of those two guys under team-friendly contracts for a big bat. The Cubs would seem to make a great partner at some point this season in that regard. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projects Kluber and Carrasco to be the fourth and sixth most valuable pitchers in the majors this season.

Trevor Bauer (11-12, 4.55) slots in at No. 4, and the No. 5 spot is still to be determined between Josh Tomlin and Cody Anderson. Anderson came on last year to finish 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA, while Tomlin was just as effective in going 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA. Anderson is 25 and Tomlin 31, so I'm sure the Tribe would prefer it be Anderson. If you want to quibble with this rotation: it's all right-handed.

In the bullpen, Cody Allen (34 saves, 2.99 ERA) was very good in his first full season as a closer in 2015. He allowed only two homers in 70 appearances.

Indians Futures Odds

Cleveland is +1800 to win the World Series, +900 for the AL pennant, +185 in the AL Central and has an "over/under" wins total of 85 wins, with the over a -130 favorite. Kluber is +350 for the Cy Young, Carrasco is +800 and Salazar +2500. Kluber has an O/U of 13.5 wins.

Indians 2016 Predictions

FanGraphs projects Cleveland to finish 86-76 and first in the AL Central, five games ahead of Detroit. Baseball Prospectus has the Indians with 92 wins. That's crazy talk. Definitely go under a lot of this team's totals this season. I simply don't like that lineup enough. Go under the wins but over Kluber's total.