MLB for the week of locktember the 8th

[ATX]

I'm in the midst of a rather large losing streak in bases. Happens when lines are pretty sharp and you play a lot of dogs. I play on numbers, I couldn't care less who wins. YTD tells the story.

I have TB -135 to -140, the real value is the RL +178, the ML is a hedge. No possible way to relate what I see on every wager, probably over 5000 wagers this year, easily.

MON -112 or better.

 

[Kodiak7]

.

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on September 13, 2003 at 03:50 AM.]

 

[ATX]

Kodiak,

buy a caluculator.

MON -112 for .3%
MON -1.5 +172 for .1%

and figure out why lines move.

 

[ATX]

Kodiak,

feel free to share with us your unique ability on handicapping baseball.

 

[Kodiak7]

.

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on September 13, 2003 at 03:51 AM.]

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I always wondered why you took those -1.5 RL's on the dogs. Occasionally they pay off big.

 

[ATX]

BGO, hit them hard in the early season before the public taps out.

The lines are much sharper now, they have to be, the only people that still have money left to put on baseball are people who know value. There is little public money (comparatively) to off-set sharp action now, they gave up a while back or ran out of money to lose. The LVSC and the books know this and the formulas are in place. I can forward you some info regarding this, from some of our conversation.

Right now, I'm just grinding away at bases trying to pick up as much as possible for years to come. I wagered on and off last year, but this has been my first real season.

Kodiak, you dont think the oddsmakers know which side of the paper you would like?

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper+]

A agree with you but also disagree. Every year when football start, I seem to have a surge. I believe alot of people that don't usually bet baseball have money in their accounts and are bored. So they find a favorite team (usually a favorite) and put a few bucks on them. I think this happens more than we would guess. If you follow the pitchers of teams that are out of it (call ups) there is really some good value in those and other dogs.

Good luck and keep up the good work. I love reading what you have to say. It keeps me grounded and thinking the right way.

 

[ATX]

News,

there is a formula involved, I know someone that uses this, it is based on a market approach. And what you are saying may be right, it makes sense, I can ask.

 

[ATX]

but keep in mind that the groups out there have VERY large financial backing, it takes a LOT of public money to offset this. They are scalping quite a bit right now, IMO, b/c the lines are too sharp. Not sure about how much buyback is involved.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

ATX:

Yes, please send me that information regarding the formulas you were talking about.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Antonio]

ATX, if you would please send me that info too. Let me know if ya lost my addy. if not send to the rochester one. Thanks brother.

 

[ATX]

TEX +158 for .2%
TEX +258 for .1%

 

[Antonio]

ATX, yes that is I, I appreciate it my man.

 

[ATX]

for 9/11

MON +174 for .2%
MON -1.5 +320 for .1%

dont see much today

 

[ATX]

MIL +110 for .3%
MIL -1.5 +210 for .1%

 

[ATX]

NYM -112 for .2%
-1.5 +140 for .1%

PITT +112 for .4%
-1.5 +200 for .1%

CLE -106 for .4%
-1.5 +175 for .1%

TB +185 for .2%
-1.5 +270 for .1%

BOS -1.5 +130 for .2%

FLA -103 for .2%
-1.5 +17 for .1%

 

[Kodiak7]

Kodiak - You have chased this guy into two different forums posting in his threads instead of leaving this shit in the Rubber Room.

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on September 13, 2003 at 08:12 AM.]

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

ATX - I apologize for the remarks from others, thank you for the information.

 

[Kodiak7]

..

[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on September 16, 2003 at 11:33 PM.]