on the bright side, I cut back on wager size y-day, I had a feeling this was coming, and the bad stuff may not be over yet, it could have been worse, it always can. on the bright side I've had a nice baseball year, and made some bank while I've been learning this game. on the bright side a loss of 3% is nothing, I can say with certainty that I'll have football days that lose 15%, if I stick with the strategy that has profited the most for me over the long term. on the bright side, would I have done anything differently? not really, I didnt like much of anything and just hoped the dogs were wolves--I probably should have passed.
that's pretty much what I've learned to think about during times like this, and I try to remember the times that were a lot worse and what I did to bounce back. Usually I try to determine how long it will take to recoup losses and make that a short term goal, but in baseball I'm more determined to gain experience. I didnt do well last year in baseball during mid-August until the 2nd round of the playoffs. I think teams may start quitting or teams start playing a little harder to clinch playoff spots right around this time, and this might take away from the strategy that works for me for the first 60% or so of the season.
I just hate losing. After my NFL wagers on KC, the under, and the 2nd half under got canceled I had a feeling this week would take a turn for the worse. If every week was like the last several for me, then there would be no need for money management, no matter what your ROI you will have terrible losing streaks, it's just a matter of time, and that's really the most important thing anyone could ever tell you. I have won 23 wagers in a row, and I have lost 15 in a row with #16 being a push. When I won 23 it was after a bad losing streak. When I lost 15 it was on plays that in the same situation I would have done the same thing, and it was after I won 13 out 17 wagers. It just goes to show that you never know when the bad or good will occur, you have to be prepared.
the reason I dont bet dogs on the +1.5 is b/c over the long term, there is little or no value on the wager according to the price offered. You can pick your spots with this wager and do all right, but I've tracked myself on this strategy and I make a lot more not only on the dog to win SU but also on the -1.5. I think I see where you are coming from as I've lost a lot of 1 run games recently, but over the last few weeks I've had the dogs on the -1.5 do pretty well. This late into the season the favorites on the -1.5 have lost a lot of value, but some dogs retain quite a bit of value on the -1.5, IMO to help even out a book's action as the public is much more likely to play a favorite -1.5 than a dog. A lot of times the dog is on the road and they always bat 9, so that gives them a little better shot at scoring the needed runs, but a lot of that is configured into the line. There were fewer 1-run games last year than in an avg year over the last 20 and I think that has carried over to this year as well. The avg over the last 20 has an influence over this year's RL's, I dont know how much, or for how long, and this can change at any time.
