yeah,
the only games I liked are the dogs that already started. Montreal's price looks playable, but I'm not ready to fade Willis at home. Betting Colorado on the road wasnt too good last year, that team seems to always make you money at home, but I was a lot more careful to pick spots with them on the road last year. It's harder for me to form as many opinions without some numbers for the season, and I hate betting on guys that havent thrown on the major league level for a while, especially if they were stiffs the last time they were on the roster. I think SF is worth a shot. I'll be spending a lot more time on the NBA when the playoffs start.
SF +130 for .4%
SF +199 for .2%
the only games I liked are the dogs that already started. Montreal's price looks playable, but I'm not ready to fade Willis at home. Betting Colorado on the road wasnt too good last year, that team seems to always make you money at home, but I was a lot more careful to pick spots with them on the road last year. It's harder for me to form as many opinions without some numbers for the season, and I hate betting on guys that havent thrown on the major league level for a while, especially if they were stiffs the last time they were on the roster. I think SF is worth a shot. I'll be spending a lot more time on the NBA when the playoffs start.
SF +130 for .4%
SF +199 for .2%
q,
I would stay away from the +1.5's
not because that one happened to lose, but because the ONLY time the +1.5 holds value is when the game lands on an EXACT one run differential, and it HAS to be the right team that wins by one. In other words it is far more likely for the game NOT to land on an exact score which in essence you are predicting with a +1.5, it is much more probable for a game to land on anything BUT a one run score.
there are spots in which the +1.5 holds value, as with anything else, and the low total games obviously are where to look, but usually the line is adjusted too much for that. Just my thoughts, I had DET +1.5 +200 or so last year against Pedro, it was tied and I think it went to extra innings before Boston scored two to ruin the bet.
I would stay away from the +1.5's
not because that one happened to lose, but because the ONLY time the +1.5 holds value is when the game lands on an EXACT one run differential, and it HAS to be the right team that wins by one. In other words it is far more likely for the game NOT to land on an exact score which in essence you are predicting with a +1.5, it is much more probable for a game to land on anything BUT a one run score.
there are spots in which the +1.5 holds value, as with anything else, and the low total games obviously are where to look, but usually the line is adjusted too much for that. Just my thoughts, I had DET +1.5 +200 or so last year against Pedro, it was tied and I think it went to extra innings before Boston scored two to ruin the bet.
atx-
Thanks for the input. I'll be certain to address that issue again. I have often thought that the +1.5 is devalued compared to picking an out-right winner. However, in the low-scoring games that you mention it has saved me in the past. That's why I bet it on this game. I thought it would be low-scoring.
I think I will look at my data from last year. I'll check the games where I bet +1.5 and compare it to the result if I were to just bet that team to win.
Thanks again.
Thanks for the input. I'll be certain to address that issue again. I have often thought that the +1.5 is devalued compared to picking an out-right winner. However, in the low-scoring games that you mention it has saved me in the past. That's why I bet it on this game. I thought it would be low-scoring.
I think I will look at my data from last year. I'll check the games where I bet +1.5 and compare it to the result if I were to just bet that team to win.
Thanks again.
q,
I just think that the -1.5 holds a lot more value than the +1.5, especially now when the oddsmaker is guessing who should be favored. anything can change overnight, but value has been in the -1.5 and over at least the last few thousand games. keep me posted on any angles you may notice, your late season baseball angle is doing quite well when applied to the nba final reg season games. I've got some NBA playoff angles and between now and mid-June I usually make more money than at any other time during the year. I dont see why it wouldnt continue this year.
I just think that the -1.5 holds a lot more value than the +1.5, especially now when the oddsmaker is guessing who should be favored. anything can change overnight, but value has been in the -1.5 and over at least the last few thousand games. keep me posted on any angles you may notice, your late season baseball angle is doing quite well when applied to the nba final reg season games. I've got some NBA playoff angles and between now and mid-June I usually make more money than at any other time during the year. I dont see why it wouldnt continue this year.
I need to put more time into studying that -1.5 angle. I'll be getting my hands on the data you mention.
I'm glad you noticed the thing about the final NBA season games. It's been working rather well for me but I've been putting more time into posting here on baseball.
I'll be looking forward to your picks for the NBA playoffs.
I'm glad you noticed the thing about the final NBA season games. It's been working rather well for me but I've been putting more time into posting here on baseball.
I'll be looking forward to your picks for the NBA playoffs.
