I dont mind the question at all,
it's been a good baseball season so far, my posted record is a little different than actual since it's impossible to post everything, but I was planning on updating my baseball ytd here as I did last year. I am a lot more focused on identifying value on future events than crowing about current records, and it's one of the reasons I post in weekly threads so anyone can glance at current form. I would be a bit surprised if a rough patch of games didnt hit me soon, and in baseball weekly performance is a lot more applicable than day to day wins/losses. Dogs aren't 'supposed' to win, but over time if you take them at +150 when they should be +135 it adds up.
it's been a good baseball season so far, my posted record is a little different than actual since it's impossible to post everything, but I was planning on updating my baseball ytd here as I did last year. I am a lot more focused on identifying value on future events than crowing about current records, and it's one of the reasons I post in weekly threads so anyone can glance at current form. I would be a bit surprised if a rough patch of games didnt hit me soon, and in baseball weekly performance is a lot more applicable than day to day wins/losses. Dogs aren't 'supposed' to win, but over time if you take them at +150 when they should be +135 it adds up.
first week's posted mlb
4/4 +2.288%
4/5 -1.70%
4/6 +1.046%
4/7 +0.341%
4/8 +0.625%
4/9 -1.177%
4-4 to 4-9 net: +1.423%
point of reference: avg bet of .3% when valuing alt rl's as separate entities to the straight moneylines
closer to .5% avg bet size when taking the stance of alt rl's being correlated to dog ml's
either way a very good start, my return goal is 2% a month. In the past I had higher return goals, but I also risked more as a percentage per bet. as bankroll increases, my risk decreases, I make the same amount but by risking less as a % of BR. I started at lower levels with bets of 2% to 3% avg, but I had a LOT less plays than I do now. If you play at volume (a large number of wagers per week) I strongly suggest not having more than 25% of BANKROLL outstanding. Figure out how many games you usually bet, and make sure to keep at least 75% of BR action-less at any given time. Putting more than 2% of BR on any game on a regular basis is not a great idea at all. Yeah, it's great when you win huge bets. But putting huge amounts of BR on games builds bad habits for upper levels when you win. When you lose, then you just remember reading things like this warning you. The key is not trying to get rich quick, give this 3 years and if you 'have it' you can make a ton of money in this market. Steady, consistent growth with defined goals and constant grading of bets. What works one year will not work the next, guys who cant adapt lose it all and the books count on this. It's one of the reasons you see guys go lights out for a couple of months on posting forums then disappear. Learn to know your personal tendencies, I usually do better in the playoffs than anything else, I also usually do better in the beginnings of seasons than at the end when teams give up. I not only handicap games I handicap myself, any pattern I see I think about. What works for me, doesnt work for many people, have fun and never put yourself in a position where a game MUST WIN.
4/4 +2.288%
4/5 -1.70%
4/6 +1.046%
4/7 +0.341%
4/8 +0.625%
4/9 -1.177%
4-4 to 4-9 net: +1.423%
point of reference: avg bet of .3% when valuing alt rl's as separate entities to the straight moneylines
closer to .5% avg bet size when taking the stance of alt rl's being correlated to dog ml's
either way a very good start, my return goal is 2% a month. In the past I had higher return goals, but I also risked more as a percentage per bet. as bankroll increases, my risk decreases, I make the same amount but by risking less as a % of BR. I started at lower levels with bets of 2% to 3% avg, but I had a LOT less plays than I do now. If you play at volume (a large number of wagers per week) I strongly suggest not having more than 25% of BANKROLL outstanding. Figure out how many games you usually bet, and make sure to keep at least 75% of BR action-less at any given time. Putting more than 2% of BR on any game on a regular basis is not a great idea at all. Yeah, it's great when you win huge bets. But putting huge amounts of BR on games builds bad habits for upper levels when you win. When you lose, then you just remember reading things like this warning you. The key is not trying to get rich quick, give this 3 years and if you 'have it' you can make a ton of money in this market. Steady, consistent growth with defined goals and constant grading of bets. What works one year will not work the next, guys who cant adapt lose it all and the books count on this. It's one of the reasons you see guys go lights out for a couple of months on posting forums then disappear. Learn to know your personal tendencies, I usually do better in the playoffs than anything else, I also usually do better in the beginnings of seasons than at the end when teams give up. I not only handicap games I handicap myself, any pattern I see I think about. What works for me, doesnt work for many people, have fun and never put yourself in a position where a game MUST WIN.
I notice that you sometimes bet the -1.5 on the home team. I've often thought about this as well but am concerned about the game being tied and the home team winning by 1 run in the bottom of the 9th or the bottom of extra innings.
I suppose you have already taken that into consideration. Do you find that the frequency this happens is not enough to take away the extra money made by winning these bets?
I suppose you have already taken that into consideration. Do you find that the frequency this happens is not enough to take away the extra money made by winning these bets?
