MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Don't overrate Humber's perfect game

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Congratulations to Philip Humber, who this past Saturday became the 21st pitcher in Major League Baseball history to throw a perfect game.

Unfortunately, it's now time to say that his performance -- the Saturday stat line, that is -- is almost entirely irrelevant in determining his future prospects.


We, fantasy owners as a whole, tend to be a reactionary bunch. We panic when our team's top starting pitcher gets hammered and we get giddy when the last pitcher on our roster, generally one we recently added or nearly kept out of the starting nine that day, tosses a gem. When a pitcher does what Humber does, we're quick to say things like, "But he just threw a perfect game, he's great!"


Throwing a perfect game doesn't mean Humber is "great." It only means he was lucky.


Yes, a pitcher needs a healthy chunk of natural ability to pitch a perfect game. You probably can't walk off the street, throw nothing but 65 mph "fastballs" and expect to retire 27 consecutive batters.


But to pitch a perfect game, you also need to catch breaks.


You need Dewayne Wise to steal a home run from Gabe Kapler. You need Kevin Kouzmanoff to dive into the dugout to make a key catch. And let's face it: You need Jim Joyce to call Jason Donald out at first base.


Such plays, each of which occurred in a perfect game thrown during the past half-decade -- OK, Armando Galarraga's was a "shoulda been" -- exemplify the luck factors fantasy owners talk about, things like batting average on balls in play, left-on-base percentage and home run-to-fly ball percentage. When a pitcher tosses a perfecto, those numbers are all zero (if not indeterminate). They are as far removed from the major league averages as possible, the epitome of the "lucky" performance, and are as subject to regression as any statistic in the game.

They are the worst statistics to use to drive your decision-making, but then, most any singular game's numbers are horrible such measures. They're the effective equivalent of hitting the jackpot on a slot machine, then taking another spin because you're convinced you're on a lucky streak and it'll happen again.


Amazingly, there are actually people who believe in that. And it's your job to find those people and exploit them with a perfectly timed trade.


History shows that there's no smarter time to trade a pitcher than immediately following his singular best performance. You will find no shortage of trade partners and the least resistance to your asking a healthy return for said pitcher. And in terms of likelihood of success, so long as you get a return worth more than the pitcher's previous track record dictated -- not previously perceived value, previously earned value -- you are highly likely to win that deal.


Consider that during the regular season of the past three years (2009-11), there were 10 no-hitters thrown, by a wide variety of pitchers. To demonstrate this effect, I calculated the average Bill James Game Scores of these pitchers before and after their no-nos. Here is what the group averaged:


Average Game Score in their 30 starts up to and including the no-no : 59.7
Average Game Score in their five starts immediately following the no-no: 59.6
Average Game Score in their 30 starts immediately following the no-no: 59.9


Five of these pitchers were significantly better in their five starts following their no-hitters: Matt Garza (plus-11.4 differential in average Game Score), Ubaldo Jimenez (plus-10.7), Francisco Liriano (plus-9.3), Jonathan Sanchez (plus-8.1) and Ervin Santana (plus-7.0). Three of these pitchers were significantly worse in those five starts: Carlos Zambrano (minus-17.5), Mark Buehrle (minus-14.7) and Edwin Jackson (minus-12.2). What that says is that, occasionally, you have a little time following a pitcher's historical performance to sell high on his "newfound skills." But it also says that, in many cases, if you wait you might find yourself holding the bag.


That could be precisely what happens with Mr. Humber. Be aware that his next start is scheduled for Thursday versus the Boston Red Sox. Yes, those same Red Sox who scored six runs off 12 hits on Monday and who by Thursday could be back to form as one of the game's most fearsome offenses. In terms of ESPN standard mixed leagues, Humber, coming off a no-no, should be a no-go on Thursday.


From a long-term perspective, only three of those pitchers managed noticeably better performances in their 30 starts following their no-hitters -- an average Game Score at least 2.0 higher than before it: Sanchez (plus-9.6), Justin Verlander (plus-7.7) and Roy Halladay (plus-2.5). Four were significantly worse: Buehrle (minus-8.8), Liriano (minus-5.0), Zambrano (minus-4.7) and Santana (minus-2.8). And with the possible exception of Sanchez, who, to be fair, at the time had been vastly improving his control, every one of those pitchers' future performances was fairly predictable. The no-nos really didn't change anything; either you knew they were pitchers improving in skill or you knew that their no-nos were one-time flukes.


Incidentally, it's not only no-hitters that fall into this classification. Outstanding, albeit not historic, performances also exhibit trends of regression to the mean, supporting the case that it's always smartest to trade your pitcher coming off his most outstanding outing. For this example, let's take the 40 pitchers who managed a Bill James Game Score of 90 -- that plateau regarded a truly outstanding performance -- between 2009-11, who also made additional starts following those outings (meaning Chris Carpenter, who concluded the 2011 season with a 90-plus outing, isn't included because he has yet to pitch in 2012).



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Garza, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cory Luebke, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Daniel Hudson, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jaime Garcia, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Danks, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neftali Feliz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Nolasco, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Masterson, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jhoulys Chacin, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Philip Humber, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Niemann, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Juan Nicasio, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Arrieta, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Carpenter, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Zambrano, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Duffy, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Henderson Alvarez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Drabek, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Daniel Bard, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luke Hochevar, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Randall Delgado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andy Pettitte, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clay Buchholz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Bauer, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Barry Zito, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Smyly, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Buehrle, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ross Detwiler, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




Average Game Score in their 30 starts up to and including the 90-plus game: 55.8
Average Game Score in their five starts immediately following the 90-plus game: 55.2
Average Game Score in their 30 starts immediately following the 90-plus game: 55.8


Individual examples among this group exhibited similar trends to the no-no throwers: Pitchers such as James Shields, Clayton Kershaw and Ian Kennedy remained significantly better in terms of average Game Score following their best performances, in the short and long term, while Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly and John Danks were significantly worse. And if you can't tell the difference in talent between those two groups, all hope was lost in the first place.


The bottom line: Put Humber's perfect game out of your mind. Erase the memory of one game's outstanding statistics.


All that matters when evaluating Humber's, or any future pitcher who tosses a similarly dominant game, performance is whether it represented an improvement in his specific skills or situation. In short, it's not about what he has done recently, it's entirely about why he has done what he has done recently.


In Humber's case, from a long-term perspective there could be something there. His skills are indeed changing; he is leaning increasingly hard on his slider, and consequently he's generating more swings-and-misses and therefore resulting in more strikeouts. For instance: This season he has thrown sliders 35 percent of the time and has generated misses on 35 percent of his swings (against any pitch) and he has nine strikeouts on that pitch alone, and those numbers rank him third, second and 17th, respectively, in the majors. By comparison, in 2011 his numbers in those departments were 11 percent, 21 percent and 16, and he ranked nowhere near the major league leaders, each in fact either at or near the major league averages.


That's enough to establish Humber's presence as an AL-only and deep-mixed league asset. It does not, however, make him any kind of fantasy superstar. It merely means that if you cannot get the kind of inflated trade value for him that you wish; he's at least worth keeping around for the help indicated by his rank to the right.


But float his name out there. You never know when you might find a sucker, ready to proclaim him the next great thing minutes after he made history.



Streamer's delight




Among streaming starter options -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer -- for Week 3, here are my picks by day:


Tuesday, April 24: Randy Wolf versus Houston Astros
Wednesday, April 25: Trevor Cahill versus Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, April 26: Rick Porcello versus Seattle Mariners
Friday, April 27: Danny Duffy at Minnesota Twins
Saturday, April 28: Wei-Yin Chen versus Oakland Athletics
Sunday, April 29: Chris Capuano versus Washington Nationals
Monday, April 30: Randy Wolf at San Diego Padres


Past picks
Tuesday, April 17, Kevin Millwood: 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Wednesday, April 18, Juan Nicasio: W, 6 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Thursday, April 19, Phil Hughes: W, 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Friday, April 20, Jonathon Niese: QS, 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Saturday, April 21, Philip Humber: W, QS, 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
Sunday, April 22, Joe Blanton: QS, 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Monday, April 23, Jake Peavy: W, QS, 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K


Week's total: 7 GS, 4 W (57.1%), 4 QS (57.1%), 45 2/3 IP, 39 H, 18 ER, 9 BB, 31 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Season total: 19 GS, 9 W (47.4%), 13 QS (68.4%), 122 2/3 IP, 92 H, 34 ER, 38 BB, 78 K, 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP


Three up



Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves: He was insistent during spring training that he make the Braves' starting five or the team should consider trading him, and through three regular-season starts thus far Minor has made his words count with outstanding on-field work. Most impressive has been his polished command; he has cut what was a 3.27 walks-per-nine-innings ratio in 2011 to 2.21 this season, and his fastball command has stepped up most, throwing it for strikes 70 percent of the time and generating misses on 21 percent of swings, up from 66 and 16 percent a year ago. Minor has always had front-of-the-rotation stuff; adjustments to big league competition and his command were the obstacles in his past stints with the Braves. It appears he's clearing both of those hurdles, and with continued success in the latter he might yet make a run at the top 40 starters.


Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox: No, he is not the Jake Peavy of old, the one who won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award as a 26-year-old. Still, after battling through injuries in each of the past four seasons, it appears Peavy has grown comfortable with his arsenal at this stage of his career … and let's not forget that he's just 30 years old, hardly an "old man." When it is said of a pitcher that he has "become a pitcher, not thrower," the transition they're talking about is the kind Peavy has made. He once possessed both mid-90s fastball and slider, both of which ranked among the most dominant pitches in the game; he still has the slider but without the same velocity on his fastball -- he now averages approximately 91 mph -- and he sprinkles in an effective two-seamer and changeup. Health is really the question; can Peavy stay on the field for 30-plus starts? Certainly the way he has pitched thus far makes him well worth the investment for so long as he can, as the only truly bothersome trait surrounding him right now is his inflated fly ball rate: 54.1 percent, a tad high for a White Sox pitcher.


Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees: There's no question that once ready Pettitte will rejoin the Yankees' rotation, nor was there ever one. Nor do the Yankees' current rotation issues really impact Pettitte's fantasy appeal. What do, however, are the glowing reports about his workouts and minor league appearances, which are important considering he's a 39-year-old who sat out the entire 2011 season. Pettitte has thrown seven innings in two official "rehab starts" for Class A Tampa, allowing one run with five strikeouts compared to zero walks, and he'll make another appearance for Double-A Trenton on Wednesday. He'll presumably join the Yankees' starting five in mid-May, and with the reports as positive as they've been and his command numbers as promising as they are, it's not unthinkable he could have some AL-only and deep-mixed league appeal, along the lines of his solid 2010 (3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).


Three down



Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves: It's difficult to remember that Jurrjens was an All-Star last July, considering how poorly he has pitched since. A 12-3 starter with a 1.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 16 first-half starts last season, Jurrjens has managed a 1-5 record, 6.87 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 11 starts since. He has hit rock bottom; he was optioned to Triple-A following another disastrous start on Monday, signifying that both the aforementioned Minor and more surprisingly rookie Randall Delgado have moved ahead of him on the depth chart. Jurrjens' command has completely collapsed, as he has a 4.53 walks-per-nine ratio in that 11-start slump, and it might require him multiple strong starts in the minors before he gets another chance.


Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians: One of 2011's most promising breakouts, Masterson still isn't a pitcher without his flaws. Most notably, he lacks an elite "out" pitch to use versus left-handed hitters, meaning he needs be pitch-perfect every time out to remain as consistently successful as he was during the first half of last season (2.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). Left-handers are hitting .346/.429/.500 in 63 plate appearances versus Masterson thus far, a signal that he should be removed from your lineup anytime he faces a particularly lefty-laden lineup.


Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles: Forgive Matusz at least somewhat for what has been a particularly treacherous schedule for him so far, having faced the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels in his three turns, and point out that he at least has experienced greater success than he did in 2011. (Not that that's setting the bar high.) But the problem for the left-hander is that he's in a division in which he'll rarely ever be excused the challenging matchup, and his 11 walks compared to 11 strikeouts practically erase what was a promising spring training for him in the command department. Matusz can be kept around in AL-only leagues, albeit on the bench, on the hope that easier matchups might spawn a hot streak. But right now, he's as much a no-go as he was a year ago at this time.

 

[HacheMan]

Hunted Down

The Phillies offense has sputtered this season, to say the least, so they can’t afford to lose any more big bats in their lineup. Unfortunately, though, that’s what has happened.



Francisco Liriano has gotten off to a woeful start this season, posting an 11.02 ERA and 2.33 WHIP over his first four starts. The Twins have decided that those numbers don’t need to get any worse this week.



Liriano will have his next outing skipped, instead throwing a couple bullpen sessions before returning to the rotation next Tuesday against the Angels.



"It's about being able to relax on the mound. He knows that," manager Ron Gardenhire said in the Pioneer Press. "He actually says he has confidence, and he'll tell you himself, when he gets a man out there (on base), he starts spinning a little bit - well, he has to be able to control that. It's a work in progress. Let him take a step back and try to relax."



Liriano is coming off a disappointing 2011 campaign, but he drew some intrigue from fantasy owners with a terrific spring training, when he held a 2.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 33/5 K/BB ratio over 27 innings. According to Fangraphs.com, the left-hander is averaging 91.8 mph with his fastball this season, the same number he averaged last year. His fastball came in at 93.7 mph in 2010 and 94.7 mph in 2006, though, which, not surprisingly, were his best two seasons. But, the Twins think his stuff is fine and he just needs to relax and throw strikes. We shall see.



Matsui Catches on with Rays



Hideki Matsui batted just .251/.321/.375 with 12 homers last season for the A’s, and he’ll turn 38 in June. The Japanese import isn’t ready to call it a career, though, and it appears that he’s finally found a home.



As first reported by Jack Curry of the YES Network, Matsui is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Rays. Matsui is expected to first report to extended spring training before joining the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Durham.



It doesn’t seem like a great landing spot for the veteran, as the A’s outfield is full, they have Luke Scott to handle the DH slot and they just picked up National League Quick Hits: Chase Utley (knee) was able to field grounders and take batting practice prior to Monday’s game. He still has some pain in the field, but he does seem to be coming along, slowly but surely. He remains without a timetable … Jason Bay had to exit the second game of Monday's doubleheader with bruised ribs. X-rays came back negative, but he'll be reevaluated Tuesday before his status is determined … Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson expects Chris Young (shoulder) to require a longer than minimum stay on the disabled list. He didn’t offer a timetable, though … Tyler Pastornicky didn’t start Monday for the third straight day. He’s batting just .175/.214/.325 over his 43 plate appearances and could be in danger of a demotion if he doesn’t pick it up … Nate Schierholtz fell a double short of the cycle in the first game of Monday’s doubleheader against the Mets and added three more hits in the nightcap. All told, he finished the day with 13 total bases and is now batting .372/.404/.744 for the season … Rodrigo Lopez was designated for assignment Monday. The Cubs hope he’ll accept an assignment at Triple-A Iowa … Ronny Cedeno has landed on the disabled list with a left intercostal strain and is expected to miss three weeks. American League Quick Hits: Cody Ross is doing his best to keep the Red Sox from getting buried early on this season. He homered twice Monday, including one to break a tie in the top of the ninth inning. He leads the team with five homers and 13 RBI … Derek Jeter is off to a fine start of his own, as a four-hit game Monday pushed his average up to .411. He’s also got four homers already after falling shy of double-digits in that regard for the first time in his career last season … Bill Hall has agreed to a minor league deal with the Orioles. He could be an option off the O's bench at some point … Daniel Bard has been moved to the bullpen for the time being while his next start gets skipped, and he picked up a win in relief Monday. The Red Sox are still committed to him as a starter, though, at least for now … The Yankees will skip Freddy Garcia's turn in the rotation Saturday, but they insist he hasn’t lost his rotation spot. It should only be a matter of time, though, as Andy Pettitte is due back in a couple weeks … Lorenzo Cain (groin) is expected to be activated from the disabled list Friday. He remains an intriguing mixed league flier … Agent Scott Boras says his client, Mike Gonzalez, will sign with someone in the next 10 days … Michael Pineda (shoulder) will receive an MRI Tuesday, at which point we should know more about his status. He’s already not expected back prior to the All-Star break, though … An MRI on Adrian Beltre's left leg came back clean, and he should return to the lineup shortly … Greg Holland (rib) is expected to miss three weeks. Jonathan Broxton will continue to handle save chances in Kansas City.​

 

[HacheMan]

Low Velo Lincecum
In an effort to better understand the pitcher Tim Lincecum is today, I’ve reviewed one of his best outings from 2009 and compared it to 2012. Check out last week's column on Madison Bumgarner.


Note: Pitch grades are on the 20-80 scale, which is commonly used in scouting, though sometimes as 2-8. I consider an 80 grade to be among the top 3-5 in baseball. A 50 grade is average. A 20 grade is the lowest playable in the big leagues (ex. A pitcher with a 20 grade changeup may forgo throwing the pitch, in large part, during regular season action).


Fastball
Lincecum’s fastball topped out at 91.9 MPH in his last outing. In 2009, he averaged 93.2 MPH, according to BrooksBaseball.net. He could also reach back and overpower hitters at 95-97 MPH.His fastball has never had a lot of sink or movement, but he has a good tempo and pretty solid command of it. He’s able to hit the corners and stay away from the middle of the plate. In 2009, he worked hitters up and down with his fastball, keeping them off-balance with velocity and location. He can’t do that at 88-91 MPH. Hitters had to commit to the high-90s version early, leading to frequently futile swings. Batters can wait on it more now. As such, they’ve started to lay off it, especially up in the zone. (A number of Mets’ hitters still chased it up in his last start, but that speaks more to how weak the Mets’ lineup is than how good Lincecum’s fastball was.)"The fastball right now isn't going fast enough to get by guys,” Lincecum said after his start against the Phillies. “So it's almost a [mindwarp] for me, instead of just trusting it and believing that, ‘Hey, my stuff I've got today is gonna get you out regardless.’"

Present Grade: 55


Changeup
Lincecum’s changeup is the one pitch in his arsenal that has improved since 2009. It was straighter and he would locate it higher in the zone. Because it came in at 10-13 MPH slower than his peak fastball, he still made hitters look foolish.Now he’s capable of routinely burying the pitch in the dirt for strikeouts. And while it has been within 7-8 MPH of his peak velocity, it has more depth than it did in 2009. It moves very late with excellent tumble. He also throws it with similar arm action and arm speed as his fastball."With the changeup, it's always been my go-to pitch [in the big leagues], especially in 2008 when I started going to it almost too heavy,” he said. “[Today], it almost messes me up where I'm thinking, ‘Is he thinking changeup or is he thinking fastball?’"

Present Grade: 75


Curveball
Eye-poppingly filthy in 2009, Lincecum’s curveball could still be above-average. It used to have ridiculously sharp, late movement. He could throw it over the heart of the plate and still get outs regularly.Now it’s a bit more of a precision pitch that he surprises hitters with more than he overpowers them. He’s gone from throwing his curve very often early in his career, to mixing it in irregularly in 2011, to relying on it a little more again in 2012. It could be key in his efforts to put away hitters this season.

Present Grade: 55


Slider
It wasn’t fair when Lincecum started throwing his slider often in 2009. The pitch added to his changeup, coming in at a similar velocity with more horizontal movement. It was a devastating offering against righties.Perhaps the reason he’s resolved on throwing it less this season, Lincecum’s slider is now pretty similar to his changeup. It has more vertical movement than his changeup and can be sharp, but it now lacks horizontal movement. And it isn’t as explosive as it once was.

Present Grade: 50


Overall
Once a freak, Lincecum has become mortal. The stuff he’s had this season is nowhere near the stuff he once dominated with.The biggest difference between 2012 Lincecum and Cy Lincecum is that Cy Lincecum could get you out with four pitches, while 2012 Lincecum may only be able to get you out with one."Sometimes you can be unsure of yourself going into a game,” he said. “You might be going to other pitches to compensate just because you think you can't get a guy out with that certain pitch. It's all about gaining knowledge but also not forgetting who you are and what got you here."Lincecum’s days of being an ace are likely over. He’s had below-average fastball velocity this year, after an initial drop last July. And his curveball is no longer elite. If he doesn’t regain some velocity, he may be a mid-rotation starter going forward."It's a constant adjustment,” Lincecum explained. “Some days you might be getting away with that high fastball, and some days guys are gonna be sitting on that. Some days your changeup's gonna be your out pitch. And some days your fastball's gonna be your out pitch, just because of the scouting report guys get and tendencies you start to take. That's what makes this game fun. You can't just stay the same. You gotta keep adapting.”

 

[HacheMan]

Don't fall for another hot April for Ethier

Eric Karabell

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp is off to a blazing start, hitting .460 and on pace for 86 home runs, 210 RBIs and 172 runs scored. Kemp and his powerful numbers easily lead the ESPN Player Rater and those who selected him early in the first round are quite pleased. Dodgers fans are similarly overjoyed with a 13-4 start. Ask me who the best player in real life and fantasy is for today and the rest of the year, and I choose Kemp.


Of course, Kemp isn't the only Dodgers outfielder ranking well on the Player Rater, as the seemingly rejuvenated Andre Ethier is tied with Kemp for the big league lead in RBIs with 22. Ethier is also hitting .308 and … and … well, that's about it. Yes, Ethier is knocking in runs, a misguided statistic that we know is influenced by opportunity, and Kemp sports a .514 on-base percentage. That can't continue. Neither can Ethier's crazy RBI pace, which is why you're running out of time to sell high. Ethier really isn't doing much else. For his three weeks of health and 22 RBIs, the Dodgers are apparently engaging in talks with Ethier's team for a long-term contract extension.


<offer></offer>I don't want to say definitively that that's a mistake, but let's look closer at Ethier, shall we? He's 30 years old. He's a career .291 hitter who only once has hit more than 23 home runs in a season. He takes his fair share of walks and doesn't steal bases. Frankly, it sounds like I'm describing Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis. Fantasy owners moved on from Markakis as a star years ago, tired of subpar power seasons. Ethier hit 11 home runs last season, fewer than Markakis. Not only did Ethier have no months with as many as 22 RBIs -- and Ethier has another week to add to this total -- but he knocked in 22 runs the entire second half.

The Dodgers' offense is brutal, save for Kemp and a reasonable Ethier, and please don't quote where the team ranks in runs scored, home runs, anything. Remove Kemp and this is the Pirates. Speedy shortstop Dee Gordon can't get on base. James Loney should have been replaced years ago. Mark Ellis and Juan Rivera aren't good hitters (where are Alex Castellanos and Jerry Sands?). Ethier's off to a great start and he's scored a mere nine runs, and it's not like he's hitting .400. Ethier was tremendous last April -- better than this -- when he hit .380 with 13 walks, 10 doubles and 16 RBIs. Fantasy owners loved him. And then they didn't.


From May 1 on Ethier wasn't worth owning in a 10-team standard league, and yes, I'm aware he had right knee problems that shut him down early. He hit .266 and averaged 10 RBIs per month over the next four months. He barely played in September. Injury truncated Ethier's season -- just like 2010 with the broken pinkie -- and likely affected him at the plate in the prior months, but do you want to rely on him staying healthy in 2012, especially when his top-15 spot on the Player Rater is fueled by literally one category, and runs batted in is an overrated stat to start with?


Ethier's contract expires at the end of the season, and the messy Dodgers ownership situation has been solved, which is why talk of an extension is running rampant. As Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said, "I've always been inclined to keep him," Colletti said. "His start certainly hasn't hurt." Well, perhaps Colletti should look closer at Ethier's start. Yes, a .300 batting average is always nice, and Ethier is a good hitter in that regard. He managed to hit .292 each of the past two seasons, so I'd argue that batting average isn't really a question. The power is, though. Ethier is likely overrated by his 2009 campaign when he hit 31 home runs and batted in 106. Oddly enough, his batting average was a career-low .272. Ethier got off to a fast start that year as well, producing a .976 OPS in April. He finished at .869.


The Dodgers needed a good start. Kemp is a statistical monster, and while his astronomical paces will come down to earth, I wouldn't call him a sell-high option in fantasy. With Ethier, however, you might not like what happens to his numbers when he stops knocking in a run per game, and it is coming. Yes, he's playing well; Albert Pujols famously hasn't homered yet, sending his fantasy owners into a panic. Ethier was a 14th-round pick in ESPN average live drafts, 30th among the outfielders, and through three weeks, or 10 percent of a long season, he's been fine. Ethier is getting many chances to knock in runs, and he's doing his job. I think he will hit around .300 this season, though it's hard to project more than 140 games or 20 home runs.


But that's about it for Ethier. We've seen him start out fast in April before, and contract talk aside, durability and production remain issues. Frankly, the Dodgers should be rebuilding, trying to move him to a contender desperate for offense, but I don't see that happening. Often fantasy owners make better sense of situations like this: See if you can move him for a more versatile outfielder who runs, has enough power to matter and can stay on the field, because this nice start isn't as nice as it appears.

 

[HacheMan]

Early risers, fallers in points leagues

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

"What about us?"


We've heard the cries of anguish from fantasy owners in points leagues who are constantly bombarded with fantasy analysis regarding what players can give you in particular categories or how they'll impact your rotisserie standings. While the information found in those columns can certainly be useful, it isn't tailored to your particular format and, as such, might not always apply.


Points leagues are their own particular animal, and they cry out for a different measuring stick. A player can be a solid 5x5 performer, ranked in the top 20 on the ESPN Player Rater, and be an enormous albatross in the points format. Similarly, a pitcher can barely be worth rostering in a 10-team mixed league, yet have enormous value to a similarly sized league that doesn't worry as much about where the points come from, so long as they come.
Top 100: Points leagues

AJ Mass' top 100 overall players are ranked based on statistics that have already been accrued in ESPN standard points formats and should be used as a supplement to the ESPN Player Rater.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, LAD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, STL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, DET </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, STL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, PHI </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, WAS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, NYY </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, OAK </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aroldis Chapman, CIN </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CHW </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, ARI </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, TOR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Evan Longoria, TB </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Headley, SD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, ATL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Javy Guerra, LAD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Swisher, NYY </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Philip Humber, CHW </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ross Detwiler, WAS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, CIN </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, SEA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, BOS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, BAL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luis Perez, TOR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, TOR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, ATL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, TB </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, NYY </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, ARI </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, WAS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Westbrook, STL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, BAL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, LAD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, LAD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Pierzynski, CHW </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, SEA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Duane Below, DET </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, PHI </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, MIN </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Drabek, TOR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jim Johnson, BAL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cory Luebke, SD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Young, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, CHW </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Barry Zito, SF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, SF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, PHI </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Starlin Castro, CHC </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, STL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Furcal, STL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, DET </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, STL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Saunders, ARI </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, NYY </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nolan Reimold, BAL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, MIA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bronson Arroyo, CIN </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Omar Infante, MIA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Pena, TB </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Stammen, WAS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, MIA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, COL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CHW </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alejandro De Aza, CHW </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, LAD </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, CHC </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Grant Balfour, OAK </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Cuddyer, COL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Motte, STL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Napoli, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, TEX </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, ATL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.D. Martinez, HOU </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pablo Sandoval, SF </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, ATL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, HOU </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Wieters, BAL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Travis Hafner, CLE </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian McCann, ATL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, ATL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, NYY </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pedro Strop, BAL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Betancourt, COL </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Papelbon, PHI </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, WAS </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, MIN </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, CLE </td></tr></tbody></table>




In this debut edition of what we hope becomes a regular watering hole for points-league owners, we thought it best to explain what to expect to see here. First off, you'll notice a ranking of the overall Top 100 in terms of value to this format. Although it is not a forecast of future value, it is also not simply a list of which players have tallied the most points in ESPN standard scoring either. What we've tried to do is to give points-league players a "player rater" of their own, where hitters and pitchers are weighted based on overall consistency and how much they have contributed on a per-week basis relative to the rest of the talent pool.


We also will go more in-depth into which players are trending to be more/less valuable in points leagues as compared to their value in category-based leagues. Generally speaking, you won't see names like Francisco Liriano on this list. A pitcher who blows up like he did in the past week, allowing 10 earned runs over 7 1/3 innings, is going to be detrimental in any format. You also won't see the likes of Marlon Byrd and the 1-for-19 swoon that predated his trade to Boston. Sometimes bad is universal.


However, Michael Bourn has hit .400 for the past week with six stolen bases. That's certainly good for any format, but his being ranked No. 17 on the ESPN Player Rater shows how much more valuable he is to standard-league owners than he is in points leagues, as the lack of any power, along with his strikeouts, finds him only reaching No. 85 on my rankings.
Owners who are less experienced with using a single point value to determine each player's value might be surprised by some of the names found below. However, that's kind of the whole point of this article, isn't it? We certainly hope so.


Enjoy!


Pointing up



Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: Currently checking in at No. 66 overall on the ESPN Player Rater amongst hitters, Pedroia is No. 48 in my hitters' ranks. Although he had a down week in production, hitting just .217, one of his five hits was a home run and only two of his 18 outs were strikeouts. Hitters who continue to make contact are not going to hurt you as much as those who whiff as often as the Red Sox had to change pitchers against the New York Yankees. Don't get discouraged here, as even this down week was not that bad in the grand scheme of things.


Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays: Another case where the category-based numbers for the week scare you far more than the points-league impact. Pena did not hit a home run in the past seven days. He had just one RBI. He hit .227 for the week. Yet his value actually rose a bit in points leagues thanks to eight walks and a HBP that led to a .452 OBP and more than negated his six strikeouts. If this is going to be Pena at his worst, then the sky is truly the limit for the returning Ray.


Ross Detwiler, P, Washington Nationals: It's hard to ignore a 2-0 record with a 0.56 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Yet a look at his rank at No. 64 overall on the ESPN Player Rater seems to indicate many are paying him little mind. My ranks have him at No. 27 overall. Part of that is the simple truth that starting pitchers have more value on a per-game basis than do hitters in points leagues. However, Detwiler's 3.75 K/BB rate is the biggest reason for optimism here going forward; strikeouts count for double points. Chien-Ming Wang might not have a spot in the rotation to return to at this rate.


Kyle Drabek, P, Toronto Blue Jays: At the end of the day, the most important thing that a pitcher needs to do for his points-league owners is to keep the opposing team off the scoreboard. When you start losing two points each time someone crosses the plate, you quickly learn this lesson. That's why we're still very optimistic about Drabek after his less-than-stellar outing against the Kansas City Royals this past week. Allowing six walks and five hits exhibited an unwelcome lack of control, but at the end of the day, allowing only two runs despite that shows some tenacity that bodes well for the future.


Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington Nationals: He ranks at No. 14 at his position on the ESPN Player Rater, but even though he had a very slow week, he's still a much more valuable commodity in points leagues. His .308 on-base percentage over the past seven days reads a whole lot better than does the .217 batting average and he pretty much maintained his average run production for the season (1.0 per game). He may not be in the Top 100 overall, but there's no need to toss him to the waiver wire just yet, gang.


David Phelps, P, New York Yankees: This is an unusual pick to be sure, but when it comes to relief pitchers, sometimes it's about the volume of work, and Phelps may get his fair share of looks this week. While long relievers have practically no value in standard leagues, keep in mind that a few solid innings out of the pen can help you just as much as a week's worth of hitting action if not more. Case in point? Phelps has earned only one fewer fantasy point so far in 2012 than has Nelson Cruz.


Pointing down



Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics: What? He's the No. 12 hitter on the Player Rater! He hit .318 for the week with eight RBIs! How can he be pointing down? For one thing, only one of his hits last week was for extra bases and he scored only twice himself. Then there's the fact that six of his 15 outs were K's. Sure that's 40 percent of all outs resulting from a swing and a miss, down from his season-to-date 50 percent rate -- but it's still not good for points leagues.


Jordan Schafer, OF, Houston Astros: He's only one spot behind Cespedes on the Player Rater, coming in at lucky No. 13. Yes, he hit a grand slam this weekend to surely grab the interest of many fantasy owners, but where is this value really coming from? Is it the steals? He only had one this past week, to go along with an OBP of .296. He'd have to steal at least once a day in order to counteract the damage done by the 12:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio if that trend continues. We just don't see that happening.


Cole Hamels, P, Philadelphia Phillies: Hamels went just 5-5 last season in the 11 games in which he allowed double-digit fly balls. Conversely, he went 7-1 when he served up double-digit ground balls and kept the fly ball total in single digits. That's why we're a little concerned over his first three starts of 2012, because he's already been "fly happy" twice. True, he's won both those games, but the 12 runs his offense scored for him helped out a lot. We're not saying to bench him, only to pay attention.


Bronson Arroyo, P, Cincinnati Reds: There's no question that you have to be impressed with Arroyo's 0.88 WHIP and blown away by his 13:1 K/BB ratio. However, last season Arroyo's opposing batter miss percentage was only 14.3, fifth-lowest in all of baseball. That makes him far more likely a candidate to live or die by his BABIP, which so far this season is 32 points lower than his career mark. It looks far better than it is, and even less attractive to points-leaguers, because his strikeout total per game is never going to jump out at you.


Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: There's no mistaking that Jennings, currently the No. 32 hitter on the Player Rater, did far better in this past week than he had in the previous "supersize" Week 1. He hit his first two home runs en route to accumulating 28 of his season-to-date 39 points. We can't dispute that his ranking soared up the charts. But consider this: Take away those two big swings and you instantly lose 15 of those 28 points. It's just a little perspective that the margin for error in points leagues can be razor-thin, and we don't want to exaggerate Jennings' value after just one seven-game stretch.


Joe Nathan, P, Texas Rangers: Saves is a category that counts just as much as home runs in standard leagues. As such, Nathan is currently seeing 100 percent ownership in fantasy leagues thanks to his position as the Rangers' closer. But in points leagues, every time a closer pitches and doesn't get the save, he more than likely (due to the shortness of his typical outing) costs you more points than he earns when he does close out a victory. With two losses and two blown saves to go along with a 4.50 ERA, Nathan ranks No. 64 among relievers in terms of fantasy points. And with 50 percent of his outings so far not resulting in a save, it's hard to justify a spot on your staff right now.

 

[HacheMan]

Struggling Angels OF needs Mike Trout

Eric Karabell

It can be argued that Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is the best prospect in the minor leagues. Entering Wednesday, the 20-year-old is hitting .419 at Triple-A Salt Lake, with one home run, 13 RBIs and 21 runs scored in 19 games, as well as six stolen bases in seven chances. He takes walks and also projects as an elite defensive outfielder. Trout is owned in 3.4 percent of ESPN standard fantasy leagues, and the minute the Angels' brass calls his name or announces its intent to, his name will show prominently on ESPN's most-added list.

For now, Angels fans get to watch Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter, and occasionally the ghost that is Bobby Abreu and impatient first baseman/third baseman Mark Trumbo, handle things in the outfield. Perhaps using the words "handle things" might be a bit unfair. Counting Tuesday's shutout loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, Wells leads the team in home runs with three -- all other Angels have hit a combined eight -- but it's difficult to get past his one walk versus 10 strikeouts. Hunter is taking walks (team-leading seven) and is hitting .279, but hasn't homered. Still, I feel like Wells and Hunter were going to be rather limited fantasy options anyway this year; Wells would raise his batting average from last season's .218 and provide power. Hunter still had enough left in the tank to reach 20 home runs and hit .270.


But those clamoring for future fantasy monster Trout to replace Wells or Hunter should turn some of their attention to center fielder Bourjos. While Hunter was a 15th-round pick in ESPN average live drafts and Wells a 23rd-rounder, Bourjos certainly has the most upside. Last season he hit .271, reached double digits in home runs and triples, stole 22 bases and was arguably the top defensive center fielder in the AL. I had Bourjos ranked better than Wells and Hunter for fantasy this season, but I'm certainly questioning that notion now. Sure, it's early, but when the top prospect in the game is needlessly percolating in Utah and Bourjos is hitting .186 after 43 at-bats, that tends to get notice.
Bourjos has just two extra-base hits so far. One was a fly ball turned into an inside-the-park home run when Minnesota Twins left fielder Josh Willingham badly misplayed it. Sure, Bourjos hit the ball hard and far, but his speed and a poor defensive outfielder provided the impetus for the home run. Bourjos has one other extra-base hit, one stolen base and one walk. One wonders if he's about to lose his starting role, defensive excellence or not, especially considering he has minor league options left, and isn't costing the team millions of dollars.
The case can be made, though a bit optimistically, that Trout would be the Angels' second best offensive option right now, which makes it tougher to keep him in the minors when the Angels head into Wednesday's (ESPN-televised) game with the Rays sputtering at 6-11. It's high praise to have these expectations of power, speed and defense from someone not legally allowed to consume alcohol, but with the way the Angels' lineup has been underperforming, Trout's promotion seems imminent.
I thought Bourjos, only 25 years old, would keep getting better and flirt with being universally owned as well, but Wells has played a few games in center field recently and … well, Bourjos could end up like Brandon Belt soon, starting once a week or being shuttled back and forth to Triple-A. ESPN Fantasy projected 11 home runs and 25 stolen bases for Bourjos, with a major drop in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage, but this start is much worse, and for a team with depth, that's bad news.It's still April, so I don't want to give up on Bourjos, or any of the Angels in the outfield, for that matter. I actually think Bourjos, Wells and Hunter will all exceed expectations. Bourjos should be hitting 15 home runs and stealing 30 bases in time. Wells won't get on base, but 20 home runs and a .250 batting average is reasonable. Hunter can do more than that. Trout, however, has the potential to top them all. He can still be the Angels' top outfielder this season, even if he gets only 300 at-bats. He can be the Angels' No. 2 hitter after Pujols. Whether he gets that chance or not depends a bit on Wells and Hunter, but more on Bourjos. In a mixed league deeper than 12 teams, I'd preemptively add Trout now, just in case his day comes in May.

 

[HacheMan]

Is Derek Jeter's start for real?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
Through three weeks, Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton are enjoying outstanding seasons. They're ranked No. 1 and 2 on our Player Rater, and they rank among their respective leagues' top three in batting average, home runs and RBIs.

But interestingly enough, it is the No. 3 name on the Player Rater who has had the most outstanding fantasy season to date, at least comparative to average draft position: Derek Jeter, the No. 112 pick in the preseason (ADP 111.7).


Jeter, an "old man" by baseball standards, checking in at 37 years of age (and he'll turn 38 on June 26), is playing like he's a man 10 years younger. Small-sample caveats apply, but Jeter is batting .411, the third-best mark in the majors, he's the major league leader with 32 hits and he's on pace for an incredible 38 home runs, 124 RBIs and 133 runs scored. So far, he has enjoyed every bit the level of success that he did in either 1999, 2006 or 2009, the three seasons in his 18-year big league career during which he managed a top-three finish in the MVP balloting.


Now, let's take that "small-sample caveat" and toss it out the window, because, statistically speaking, Jeter's resurgence looks completely legitimate.


Two statistical traits of Jeter's stand out when he's going right: His opposite-field hitting ability, and his performance on pitches up in the strike zone.


Jeter's 15 opposite-field hits this season are tops in the majors, and represent 47 percent of his entire hit total. Compare that to his down 2011, when his 47 opposite-field hits ranked 23rd. And in April of last season, when he managed horrendous .250/.311/.272 triple-slash rates, Jeter had seven opposite-field hits; 55 other players in baseball had more in that month.

As for Jeter's performance on pitches "up" -- judged by our pitch-tracking tool as pitches in the upper third of the strike zone -- look at the stark contrast in his statistics between this and last season:


2011: .225/.350/.270, 139 PAs, 20.6 miss percentage, sample 23.4 percent of total pitches
April 2011: .091/.160/.091, 25 PAs, 33.3 miss percentage, sample 20.7 percent of total pitches
2012: .467/.500/.800, 19 PAs, 9.5 miss percentage, sample 25.4 percent of total pitches


Granted, the case could be made that Jeter's resurgence began last July, following his return from a strained right calf, as his statistics picked up immediately after his activation from the disabled list. Perhaps it represented the first time in a while that he had been fully healthy, or maybe his recording his 3,000th career hit helped alleviate some of the pressure of such a milestone chase. But looking at Jeter's 2012 year-to-date performance, he doesn't seem to be playing at a level equivalent to his 2011 second half … he's playing at something closer to 2009.


Let's make a few statistical comparisons between Jeter's 2009 and 2012:


Opposite-field hits: MLB-best 15 in 2012, MLB third best 72 in 2009
OPS on pitches up in the zone: 1.300 in 2012, 1.062 in 2009
Miss percentage on pitches up in the zone: 9.5 percent in 2012, 15.3 percent in 2009
Hitting versus lefties: .630/.607/.926 in 2012, .395/.468/.542 in 2009
Hitting versus righties: .300/.352/.500 in 2012, .311/.381/.435 in 2009
Ground ball rate: 59.7 percent in 2012, 57.7 percent in 2009


Regression will obviously strike Jeter this season -- no one would predict he'll hit .411 -- but if his 2009 self has truly returned, we're talking about a potential .334 hitter, and that means from this point forward, not necessarily his final 2012 number in the category. Incidentally, in case you're curious what he batted from July 4 on last season, the first date he played following his activation from the disabled list: .331! A healthy Jeter, playing at this level, is well over a .300 hitter.


As crazy as it sounds, considering his age and 2010-11 history, Jeter might yet make a run at a top-three spot at his position on our Player Rater this season. As he possesses one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of baseball, he's a potential sell-high candidate … if you can fetch, say, top-70 overall value, which was roughly his average Player Rater ranking overall from 2009 to 2011 (averaged 68th, thanks to 10th, 95th and 98th finishes).


But don't just give Jeter away, certainly not at anything close to No. 10 value at his position (No. 112 overall), which was his preseason ADP. At his current performance level, he has an excellent chance at remaining a top-five shortstop.



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Albert Pujols, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Evan Longoria, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Upton, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pablo Sandoval, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Santana, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Starlin Castro, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Napoli, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Uggla, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Eric Hosmer, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nelson Cruz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Lawrie, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rodriguez, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Wieters, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Desmond Jennings, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Phillips, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian McCann, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jimmy Rollins, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Heyward, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Young, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jayson Werth, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Corey Hart, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Gordon, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Cuddyer, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carl Crawford, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Gardner, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Buster Posey, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Swisher, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Howard Kendrick, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kevin Youkilis, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Avila, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cameron Maybin, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Markakis, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Freese, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> B.J. Upton, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Montero, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Lee, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rickie Weeks, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ichiro Suzuki, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Joyce, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dee Gordon, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Berkman, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Morse, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Hardy, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Emilio Bonifacio, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alexei Ramirez, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Ackley, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kelly Johnson, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yoenis Cespedes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Logan Morrison, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jesus Montero, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Pena, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neil Walker, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erick Aybar, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Rasmus, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Headley, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Morneau, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.D. Martinez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Reynolds, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Stubbs, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Hill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jhonny Peralta, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Lind, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Utley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rios, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Schafer, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Peter Bourjos, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lucas Duda, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luke Scott, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Espinosa, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yunel Escobar, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Furcal, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Dunn, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 123 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Omar Infante, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 125 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Roberts, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td></tr></tbody></table>




"Old men" resurgence



Jeter isn't the only player of advancing age off to a scorching start, nor the only one likely to maintain a steady level of production all summer.


Division rival David Ortiz ranks sixth among hitters on our Player Rater, so far enjoying a second consecutive outstanding season at age 36, following age 32-34 campaigns that made it appear as if his career was beginning its downward slope. Ortiz, who managed a No. 33 finish on the 2011 Player Rater, now has an 84.2 percent contact rate since the beginning of last season, after managing a 76.1 percent number in the category from 2008 to 2010 (his ages 32-34 seasons).


While it's difficult to explain why Ortiz has improved in this regard, his performance against fastballs is largely behind his resurgence. His OPS against the pitch has risen steadily each year, going from .832 in 2009 to 1.019 in 2010 to 1.126 in 2011 to 1.286 this season. His swing-and-miss rate against them, too, has improved, going from 22.2 percent in 2010 to 14.3 in 2011 to 11.3 percent this year. And, perhaps most encouraging, against fastballs clocked at 93 mph or faster -- that number chosen because approximately 25 percent of all fastballs are clocked that speed or higher -- Ortiz is a .390/.442/.789 hitter who has missed on a mere 16.5 percent of his swings since the beginning of 2011.


In short, Ortiz is hitting like a player 10 years younger, too, and considering the strength of his team's lineup, he might well be a top-50 hitter again in 2012.


Meanwhile, eight spots further down the hitting rankings on our Player Rater is the St. Louis Cardinals' current cleanup hitter, Carlos Beltran, one of the more promising microfracture surgery recovery stories among athletes. While Beltran, now 35 years of age, might no longer possess the speed that once made him an annual 30/30 candidate, his performance at the plate remains as good as ever. Take a look at his statistics both before and after the surgery:


2007-09: .290/.375/.510, 12.2 BB percentage, 14.7 K percentage
2010-12: .284/.371/.496, 12.0 BB percentage, 15.9 K percentage


Health is the question with Beltran, but the only viable question at this point, and in defense of him in that regard, consider this: Of 253 eligible team games since his return from microfracture surgery, he has appeared in 223, or 88.1 percent, and that's in spite of his having made one DL trip during that span (last August, for a hand injury). Beltran might not be the safest bet to play 150-plus games, but he might not miss by much, and during the healthy games he gives you he should perform at a level equivalent of a top-20 outfielder.


Three up



Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox: I've been as vocal with my skepticism about a Dunn comeback as anyone, but his performance to date, at the minimum, warrants recognition. After struggling through one of the most miserable seasons in the history of baseball, Dunn at least has elevated himself to the level of fantasy respectability; he's batting .246 and is on pace for 38 home runs, numbers that would rival those in either of his two seasons in Washington. Dunn has made one critical improvement: He's a .345/.513/.897 triple-slash hitter versus fastballs (in 39 PAs that ended with one), after managing .160/.327/.274 rates against them in 2011. That said, some flaws remain, which is why despite his addition this week, he's low in the "Hit Parade" rankings: He's an .056/.190/.111 hitter versus left-handers, comparable to his .064/.235/.074 rates against them last season; and he has a 37.5 percent strikeout and 34.3 percent swing-and-miss rate, both higher than his 35.7 and 32.2 rates of a year ago. Tread carefully.


Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Some players were born to be stars in certain fantasy scoring formats, and ordinary performers in others. Such is the case with Jennings: The No. 28 hitter on our Player Rater, he's only 58th in ESPN's standard points-league scoring system, his stolen bases more valuable in Rotisserie scoring but his strikeouts more to his detriment in points-based scoring. It's for that reason you could have Jennings in "Three up" in this space, yet "Pointing down" in AJ Mass' new "Vantage Point" column, which specifically addresses the latter scoring format. Jennings is off to a solid start -- at least in Rotisserie -- as he has three apiece in homers and steals, and it's a plus that he has slashed what was a 22.9 percent miss rate on swings last season to 16.7 percent this season.


Gerardo Parra, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Currently available in 94.7 percent of ESPN leagues, Parra has recaptured a starting role with the Diamondbacks following the injury to hot-starting center fielder Chris Young. Parra's strengths are twofold: His glove, which is irrelevant in fantasy leagues, but also his speed, which can be of help, even if only in the short term, in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues. He already has five stolen bases on 17 opportunities (those judged by Baseball-Reference.com), after 15 on 203 in 2011, and since the beginning of last season he has batted a respectable .289. Parra, incidentally, was a lifetime .314 hitter in the minors. He's getting some time in the leadoff spot and might yet steal additional at-bats from, say, the defensively challenged Jason Kubel in left field even after Young's return, so take a look if Parra is available in your league.


Three down



Peter Bourjos, OF, Los Angeles Angels: As with the aforementioned Parra, Bourjos' strengths are his glove and his speed, but thus far his struggles at the plate have been troublesome. He's a .186 hitter, he has struck out in 26.1 percent of his at-bats and he has chased 37 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, all of those numbers representing significant drops from his 2011 levels of production. Why is that relevant? Simple: Top prospect Mike Trout is off to a .419/.483/.649 start for Triple-A Salt Lake, and he potentially brings similar traits to the Angels that Bourjos does; the difference being that he projects as a much better hitter long-term. The Angels might soon be looking for a space for Trout, and if Bourjos hasn't improved his performance by then, Bourjos could be dropped into a lesser-used fourth/fifth outfielder reserve role, or worse … back to the minors.


Adam Lind, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: His performance to date has been puzzling; his peripheral numbers seem to hint at improvement, but his standard Rotisserie numbers haven't followed. Through three weeks, Lind's walk (9.5 percent) and strikeout (14.3 percent) rates represent career bests, and his 12.6 percent miss rate on swings ranks 23rd best out of 192 qualified hitters. At the same time, he has a 50.0 percent ground ball rate, significantly higher than his 39.5 percent rate in 2011, neutralizing his power. One possible explanation: Lind has seen an increased rate of two-seam fastballs (13.1 percent of pitches seen, per FanGraphs) and sinkers (6.7 percent), pitches that tend to induce more grounders. He could really go one of two ways: He might improve as he faces fewer pitchers who lean on those two offerings; or future opponents might recognize his struggles with those pitches and challenge him more with them. The latter is the worry.


John Mayberry Jr., OF, Philadelphia Phillies: If you speculated upon Mayberry in an NL-only or deeper mixed league, you should be concerned. While it's a fact the Phillies had a short leash with him -- they granted him starts in seven of their first games and he "rewarded" them with .222/.222/.259 triple-slash rates, one extra-base hit, a double, and eight strikeouts in 27 at-bats -- the fact remains they gave him a short leash, starting him only three times in 10 games since. The Phillies are effectively treating him as a platoon man, starting him almost exclusively versus left-handed pitchers, and that's a limiting role even in deeper NL-only formats. And with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard getting closer to their returns by the day, Mayberry's playing time might not improve anytime soon.


New position eligibility



The following players have become eligible at new positions -- it's 10 games to qualify at a new spot -- in ESPN standard leagues during the past week: Yuniesky Betancourt (2B), Matt Carpenter (1B), Jesus Guzman (OF), Bryan LaHair (1B), Casey McGehee (1B), Xavier Nady (OF), Marco Scutaro (2B).


Nearing new position eligibility



The following notable fantasy players are on track to earn new eligibility in the coming weeks: Daniel Descalso (9 games played at 3B), Josh Donaldson (9 games played at 3B), Eric Sogard (8 games played at 3B).

 

[HacheMan]

Yu Got What I Need

Yu Darvish Mania has been cleared for liftoff.

Facing fellow Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda on Tuesday night at the Ballpark in Arlington, Darvish surrendered no runs and struck out a career-high 10 batters over 8 1/3 innings as the Rangers, now 10 games above .500, cruised to a 2-0 victory over the Yankees.

Darvish has struggled with jitters and flighty command as he makes the tough transition from Nippon Professional Baseball to the major leagues, but an ERA that sat at 7.94 after his shaky April 9 debut against the Mariners is now down to 2.42. The 6-foot-5, 25-year-old right-hander is starting to flash the kind of swing-and-miss stuff that prompted the Rangers to make a $100-plus million commitment to him this offseason and he has us here at Rotoworld wondering again whether he’s capable of becoming a rookie-year ace.

Darvish sits 3-0 with 24 strikeouts in just 26 innings. He’ll get the Blue Jays next.

Crawford To Meet With Dr. James Andrews

When outfielder Carl Crawford began developing elbow discomfort earlier this month, the Red Sox called it a byproduct of his grueling rehab from last year’s wrist surgery. Turns out, it may be much more serious than that.

Sean McAdam of CSNNewEngland.com reported early Wednesday morning that Crawford has a visit scheduled this week with Dr. James Andrews, whose primary gig these days is performing Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgeries.

If Crawford needs the procedure, he would miss the rest of -- rather, all of -- the 2012 campaign.

It’s another tough blow to the last-place Red Sox, and another bit of horrible and untimely news for Crawford. The 30-year-old left fielder batted just .255/.289/.405 with 11 home runs, 56 RBI and 18 stolen bases in 130 games last season after inking a whopping seven-year, $142 million contract in the winter. That deal, just a season-and-change in, is already looking like a complete and utter bust.

Ryan Zimmerman Facing Shoulder Issues

The amount of injured stars in Major League Baseball is becoming the story of the first half. And the Nationals, who stand alone atop the National League East standings regardless, have been hit as hard as any club.

Already without left fielder Michael Morse since the start of the regular season, the Nats are now bracing for bad news on third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. He’s been battling a sore shoulder since last Friday and was scheduled to undergo an MRI on Tuesday night, with manager Davey Johnson expressing publicly a fear that the 27-year-old slugger might have a muscle tear.

Zimmerman has batted just .224/.324/.345 with one home run, seven RBI and nine strikeouts in 68 plate appearances since signing a six-year, $100 million contract extension in the offseason. If a shoulder strain is his confirmed diagnosis, he’s certain to be placed on the 15-day disabled list and could miss the next several weeks. Steve Lombardozzi filled in at the hot corner in Tuesday night's series-opener against the Padres.


National League Quick Hits: Mets right-hander Mike Pelfrey could need Tommy John surgery to repair a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament … Cliff Lee (oblique) has been able to throw the last few days and is reporting improvement … Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is working on a 17-game hitting streak … Adam Wainwright had his best start of the season Tuesday night in an extra-innings loss to the Cubs … Hunter Pence blasted a two-run homer Tuesday in his return from a shoulder injury … Johan Santana fanned 11 batters over 6 2/3 innings Tuesday in a win over the Marlins … Astros second baseman Jose Altuve hit his first home run of the season in Tuesday’s loss to the Braves … Carlos Gonzalez homered twice and drove in four total runs in Tuesday’s defeat of the Pirates … Mat Latos had his best outing as a member of the Reds on Tuesday, holding the Giants scoreless over seven frames … Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija tossed 6 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in Tuesday's 10th-inning defeat of the Cardinals … Brandon Crawford is day-to-day with a hyperextended elbow … Marlins ace Josh Johnson has allowed just three runs combined in his past two starts … Jamie Moyer held the Pirates to one run in six innings Tuesday … Dodgers reliever Matt Guerrier is on the disabled list with elbow tendinitis … Brandon Phillips has gone deep twice in three contests since being moved to the heart of the Reds’ lineup … Nationals starter Chien-Ming Wang (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with High-A Potomac on Saturday … Aubrey Huff could soon be placed on the bereavement list because of a family emergency … Brewers lefty Chris Narveson needs season-ending shoulder surgery … Ryan Madson’s rehab from Tommy John surgery is underway.

American League Quick Hits: Owner of MLB's 21st perfect game, Philip Humber left the White Sox on Tuesday morning to be with his wife as she gives birth but is expected back for his Thursday start against Boston … $250 million man Albert Pujols is hitless in four straight starts for the Angels, matching a career-worst streak of futility … Adrian Beltre went 0-for-3 Tuesday in his return from a sore left leg … Mike Aviles finished 4-for-5 with a homer in Tuesday’s blowout victory over the Twins … Orioles closer Jim Johnson is day-to-day after being hospitalized Monday with flu-like symptoms … Rays left-hander David Price tossed his first shutout of the 2012 campaign Tuesday in a win over the struggling Angels … Shin-Soo Choo is day-to-day with left hamstring tightness … Orioles catcher Matt Wieters hit his sixth home run of the season Tuesday … Nolan Reimold remains day-to-day with neck spasms … Michael Pineda will get a second opinion on his ailing right shoulder Wednesday from Dr. David Altchek … An MRA taken Tuesday revealed ligament damage in Tsuyoshi Wada’s throwing elbow … Josh Willingham already has 13 RBI despite anchoring a weak Twins lineup … Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler hit his fifth home run of 2012 on Tuesday … Chris Perez has played with fire but is up to seven saves … A’s outfielder Coco Crisp is day-to-day due to a recurrence of inner ear issues … Dontrelle Willis has filed a grievance against the Orioles for placing him on the restricted list rather than allowing him to sign with another team … The Red Sox are nearing a decision on Aaron Cook, who can opt out of his minor league deal on May 1.

 

[HacheMan]

Baby Closers
What a couple of weeks.

In the last two weeks, a closer in Toronto went down for a while, a closer in San Francisco went down for longer, an old closer candidate went back to the bullpen in Boston …

And Felix Cortez Sarris was born. Sorta puts all of this in perspective. The next time you are pulling your hair out about about a closer, go vent with a family member. Talking to your dad or your son or your sister or your mother will quickly remind you that there are more important things in the world.

Later, with a clear mind and a healthy heart, you can go back to your team and make decisions about your closers.

In honor of all the baseball moments I will soon share with my son, I'll name the tiers after baby gifts. Cause that's where my life is at right now, okay?

Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Team baby socks" Tier.)

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers

Simple, understated -- the team-branded baseball sock allows the youngest of fans to express their nascent enthusiasm for a game they cannot even see yet, much less comprehend. Put them on your baby to declare your alliances before they have them, or better yet, troll the crowd by choosing the rival's socks. Who's going to hate on a baby? Who's going to hate on one of these closers?

In the last two weeks, Craig Kimbrel is knocking socks off. He has 12 strikeouts against four walks in six innings. Six innings! Two strikeouts per inning gives you a lot of leeway with your other closers -- it can even make up for a low-K starter.

Compared to John Axford, who also has close to two strikeouts per inning, Kimbrel is a control artist. The mustachioed Brewer has a walk per inning so far, but at least he hasn't walked a guy since April 15th. He'll probably be fine. Look at Joel Hanrahan, who was a preseason favorite to join this tier (he has all the prerequisite strikeout punch, control, and long leash), who also has more than a walk per inning, but has paired it with only seven strikeouts so far, and it still makes sense to keep Ax in the top.

But Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The ""I'm a Boob Man!" baby t-shirt" Tier.)


J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals

Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

I first saw this T-shirt idea in London at an Oh Baby London stand at a market, but since it's been co-opted by a good cause as a breast cancer baby shirt. The humor paired with do-gooding is a great combo, but there are other more nefarious versions. Try "I've been on the inside for nine months" on a prison onesie if you like. Should turn some heads, like these closers, who all have the chance at being elite if they consistently show the ability to strike out more than a dude per inning with great control.


J.J. Putz is not a walk man. He hasn't walked a guy yet this year and only walked twelve last year. The only problem is that he's usually only good for about fifty-plus innings per year, and a DL stint or two. The interesting news out of Arizona is that Bryan Shaw may have passed David Hernandez. Shaw's already gotten two saves this year and might be next in line when -- oops if -- Putz goes down.

Rafael Betancourt walks even fewer guys than Putz. In the past two years, he's only walked 16 guys. This year, he's working on one. Even as a fly-ball pitcher, he's got the extreme control and strikeout ability to thrive in Denver. The longer he shows his manager he can close, the longer his leash becomes, and the more he'll rise.

He zooms by Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Mustache pacifier" Tier.


Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Huston Street, San Diego Padres

Heath Bell, Miami Marlins

Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds

Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles

Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers

There's enough hipster in me that I should prepare this baby for the eventuality of finely-groomed facial hair. Should he have the Fu Manchu, or the Barber? Definitely the Handlebars. Then again, if he's got his father's facial hair, the best he'll manage is the Skeevy Teenager Trying to Look Older In Order To Get Into The Club. The guys in this tier should elicit knowing smiles as often as the mustache pacifier, so hold on to em.

Maybe the mustache pacifier is better than we think. Or maybe it's worse. This tier, appropriately, is full of trouble.

Heath Bell moves down because his velocity is down, he's not getting the swinging strikes that he used to, and he generally looks uncomfortable in those ugly unis. The last week has brought two saves, but the two before that one he blew. Even if he holds on to the job all year, he doesn't look like the elite option he used to be.

Moving out of the question marks and into more comfortable territory are three very different, and yet three very decent pitchers. Sean Marshall is a lefty, yes, but ever since he moved to the pen he's had the lights-out peripherals of a closer, and now he has three straight successful saves with nary a problem to give him some leash. Jim Johnson doesn't have a great strikeout rate, yes, but he does have one of the best ground-ball rates in the bigs, and he's proving to be unflappable in the closer's role in Baltimore. Joe Nathan is old, yes, but the 37-year-old has his velocity and his swinging strikes back. He'll give up a few home runs, but he's righted ship in three straight successful pops over the past two weeks.

Tier 4: Question marks (8) (AKA: The "Baseball bat baby spoon" Tier.)

Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics

Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Frank Francisco, New York Mets

It's still a gift for my son, so I won't hate it. And it might even get some work once we graduate from breast milk to pureed squash. But it's just a bat spoon, it doesn't support a team, and it's not that distinguishable from a regular spoon. The closers in this tier? They work, like a bat spoon, but they won't excite. Except in a bad way, maybe.

Brett Myers and Grant Balfour are fine. They're fine. Myers has his velocity back over 90 again in the pen, and has the swinging strikes to match. Balfour has seemingly shown that he's the man in Oakland. But both guys have trade rumors already swirling over their heads -- in the first month of the season. If they make it through the season on their original teams, it will be an upset. And they aren't no-doubt closers on their new teams either.

Hector Santiago is a big cup of who-knows-what. It's worth noting that his per-pitch numbers (which are always more reliable in a small sample like this) suggest that he has serious swing-and-miss stuff. So far the control is holding up, too, but he hasn't always been able to direct the ball correctly. Addison Reed is still the Closer of the Future there, but we'll give Santiago an early pass here.

Frank Francisco put some base runners on and was removed in the middle of a save chance over the weekend, but he came on to finish Johan Santana's gem on Tuesday night and his manager still says he's the closer. Carlos Marmol has more problems. He now has as many walks as strikeouts and he blew a save Tuesday night at home. Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The ""It's a Boy!" gloss baseball" Tier.)



Chris Perez (first chair), Vinnie Pestano (second chair), Cleveland Indians

Francisco Cordero (first chair), Jason Frasor (second chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Henry Rodriguez (fourth chair), Brad Lidge (second chair), Washington Nationals
Fernando Rodney (first chair), Joel Peralta (second chair), Tampa Bay Rays
Santiago Casilla (first chair), Sergio Romo (second chair), Javier Lopez (third chair), San Francisco Giants
Alfredo Aceves (first chair), Daniel Bard (second chair), Boston Red Sox

Well, we knew it was a boy for a while, so it's not really news to us. And we would have been just as happy with a girl. And where am I going to put this glossy baby blue ceramic tchotchka ball? How long till the baby breaks it? Who is it meant to impress? So far, so good that none of these have ended up in our mailbox. I do own plenty of these closers, though. I just won't put them on the top shelf for everyone to see. They are the shame we endure for playing in saves leagues.

Chris Perez has seemingly righted the ship, with seven straight saves successfully banked. But that isn't to say that he's become a better pitcher. He still only has five strikeouts in eight innings -- which makes him a liability in that department. He has four walks in those same innings, which isn't good. His ground-ball rate is also still bad. If he can continue to suppress home runs -- while with the Indians his home-run-per-fly-ball rate has been half the league average, he can maybe keep doing this. Problem is, it's never been reliably shown that a player can control that rate.

Francisco Cordero is pretty much an unquestioned closer for the next month. He's also showing the worst swinging strike rate of his career. But his control is decent, he's getting ground balls, and Jason Frasor is not really an impediment. He should be owned in all leagues.

Henry Rodriguez has not improved his control. The baby fireballer has always had gas (he averages 98+ on his fastball), but he's never been able to place the ball exactly where he wants to. This year, he has six walks in his eight and a third innings, and that's pretty bad. It's also pretty much right in line with his career rates. So he's a bit of a time bomb. At least he's not a veteran throwing his slider two-thirds of the time (and hanging half of them). There doesn't seem to be a great reason to run Brad Lidge out there for the next save opportunity.

Fernando Rodney has found control with a simple positioning change. He moved his spot on the rubber and has cut his career walk rate in half so far this year. He's still getting ground balls and can strike a dude out, so he seems in command at the closer's role in Tampa Bay. Still, walk rate doesn't become reliable that fast, he's had a long career of terrible control, and Kyle Farnsworth is already talking about throwing. Might just be a (crazy) little blip.

Too bad the Giants have only managed two saves since Brian Wilson went down. The first went to Santiago Casilla, who is still the leader in the clubhouse. The club is a little worried about Sergio Romo's ability to pitch in back-to-back games given the wonky health of his elbow in the past, and Clay Hensley is better used as a matchups guy. The save he got was in an extra-inning affair -- after Casilla pitched poorly and Romo came in for two outs (and two hits). Casilla and Romo both need to be owned for just a little while longer.

Alfredo Aceves? Alfredo Aceves. This year he's getting strikeouts but lost his control completely. In the past, he hasn't had a single rate that spoke well of him as a pitcher. He was pretty lucky on batted balls last year. There's still an outside chance he can settle down and be a mediocre closer, but Daniel Bard is suddenly in the pen again. Is it temporary? All it will take is a couple more blown saves and a Injured


Andrew Bailey (thumb), Oakland Athletics
Kyle Farnsworth (elbow soreness), Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen (elbow surgery), Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos (shoulder pain), Toronto Blue Jays

You never never never want to hear anything about your pitcher's shoulder, but maybe Santos escaped the worst. An MRI showed no structural damage and it might just be inflammation. Still, he's not throwing for two weeks and Co-Co Cordero is a closer once again for at least another month. If someone dropped Santos in your league, and you have a DL spot for him, pick him up. Once he's healthy he should be lights-out once again.

The Deposed


None… yet. The Steals Department


He's not as 'safe' as Ruben Tejada, but Alcides Escobar dose have more speed upside than the Met shortstop. The reason he's not so safe is because he doesn't have the patience to get on base to flash his wheels when the hits aren't falling. And so far in his career, his batted-ball luck has been neutral-to-poor, so his batting averages have been unsightly. But Escobar puts the ball on the ground a ton, makes contact at an above-average rate, and does have wheels. One year -- maybe this one -- he'll hit .290+ with 30+ steals. Certainly his luck has been better on balls in play so far this year. Even with fewer than double-digit home runs, he'd be a top-twelve shortstop with those numbers.

If all the players had a foot race all at once, it would be very confusing, but Tony Campana would probably win it. Dude can fly. But if Escobar has flaws, Campana has problems. Escobar has little power -- Campana has none. He has two home runs in his entire career, spanning all the way back to 2008. Escobar strikes out a wee too much for a spray-and-sprint kind of guy -- Campana might strike out at the league average. Campana also shares the lack of patience. And yet Tony Montana Campana is faster, and he's hot, and he's not to be messed with. Mixed league streamer and H2H types can ride that hot hand, but roto players should be more cynical. He's a deep leaguer at heart.

 

[HacheMan]

Powerless Pineda

When the Yankees and Mariners announced their out-of-the-blue swap of Jesus Montero and Michael Pineda (yes, a few other players were included, too) in January, you could find a lot of strong opinions, but no consensus.

The kind of trade that is rarely made these days (young talent for young talent), there was one person who thought the Mariners got a steal for every observer who insisted the Yankees made out like bandits.

There was great risk and reward on both sides. Yes, Montero could be locked into DHing at the tender age of 22, but he could also be an annual 30-home run threat in a league with increasingly few of them.

And yes, Pineda’s fastball-and-flyball ways may not be as effective in new Yankee Stadium as they were in Safeco Field, but how often can you acquire a pitcher who posted a 3.74 ERA while striking out over a batter per inning in 171 frames as a 22-year-old rookie?

It was a trade with so many layers, what-ifs and intrigue that it couldn’t possibly be declared a win for either side until many years down the road. That is unless, of course, extenuating circumstances came into play.

They did in a huge way on Wednesday, one that has darkened the Yankees’ short-term outlook, severely clouded Pineda’s future and made the Mariners feel all the more fortunate they’re now DHing a player who’s been ranked among Baseball America’s Top 10 Prospects each of the past three seasons.

A spring that began with Pineda displaying a noticeable loss of velocity has ended with his placement on the disabled list with a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder. It’s that kind of injury that can end careers if things break the wrong way, and will leave Pineda as a markedly different pitcher even if he’s able to complete what will be a long and winding rehabilitation.

If he is taking the hill every fifth day at some point in the future, it won’t be with the 94.2 mile per hour fastball he averaged in 2011, and it certainly won’t be with the title of “future ace” he was sometimes given as he made his way through the Mariners’ minor-league system.

So as Montero continues to settle into his new role and home, the Yankees will try to figure out if Phil Hughes or Freddy Garcia should be penciled in as the fifth starter once Huff Steps Away

The cruel side of the game was also on display 2,910 miles away from the Bronx in San Francisco on Wednesday.

Two days after Aubrey Huff left the Giants to attend to a “family emergency” in his native Tampa, he was placed on the 15-day disabled list with an anxiety disorder.

Whether it had anything to do with his embarrassing mishap in Saturday’s loss to the Mets or overall poor play the past two seasons is unknown, but it continues a courageous trend of players openly dealing with issues that used to be foolishly taboo in the testosterone-fueled world of baseball.

Zack Greinke and Joey Votto are among Huff’s contemporaries who have publicly taken on and conquered psychological issues the past few seasons, and though Huff is well past his playing prime, he’ll have no shortage of positive examples to look to as he attempts to get his head back in the right place and body back onto the field.

Even though Craig Enters Final Stages of Rehab

After spending the past few days with High-A Palm Beach, Allen Craig (recovery from knee surgery) will take his rehab to Triple-A Memphis on Thursday, setting the stage for his major-league return early next week.

An integral part of the Cardinals’ World Series run last season (he hit .327/.364/.692 in September and .243/.391/.622 during the playoffs), Craig also represents a highly-intriguing fantasy option despite his lack of an everyday role when the Cardinals are at full health.

Eligible at both second base and in the outfield in a large majority of formats, Craig can be stuck almost anywhere in your lineup, and offers serious power potential in the middle of the Cardinals’ loaded offense.

Craig wouldn’t be penciled into the Cardinals’ “if things were perfect” lineup, but with creaky veterans Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman and David Freese (veteran aged, at least) all in need of regular rest and the occasional DL stint, things will rarely be perfect for the Birds as they defend their title.

At least for now, Craig should be owned in all formats.

Game notes: Matt Kemp did bad things to Brandon Beachy. … Alex Gordon continued to heat up, going 3-for-5 with a three-run homer. He’s now 14-for-54 (.259) since starting the season 0-for-17. … Gordon’s teammate Billy Butler went deep twice as the Royals snapped their 12-game losing streak. Eric Hosmer also homered for the third time in six games. … Phil Hughes and Clay Buchholz both got shelled again, further clouding the futures of players who used to be two of the American League East’s most promising prospects. With Boston low on starting pitching, Buchholz should be given every opportunity to round back into form, but the same isn’t true of Hughes, who needs an immediate turnaround if he hopes to keep his rotation spot when Andy Pettitte returns next month. … Jason Hammel turned in another exceptional start. It’s well past time to scoop him up in your mixed league. … Pedro Alvarez homered in each game of the Pirates’ doubleheader with Colorado. It’s time to take the plunge if you’re in need of power at the hot corner. … Paul Konerko hit his 400th career home run. … Javy Guerra took his second loss in as many days. The Kenley Jansen watch is officially on. … Bryan LaHair homered again. … Chris Davis finally delivered bomb No. 2. … Jarrod Parker turned in a solid A’s debut as Yoenis Cespedes hit his fifth home run.

American League/National League Short Hops: Renewed soreness in Carl Crawford’s left elbow sent him to the office of noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews. News, grim or otherwise, should come down the pipe later today. … Ryan Zimmerman (shoulder) will take a session of batting practice before it’s decided whether or not he needs a stint on the disabled list. A Wednesday MRI confirmed he’s suffered no structural damage. … Cody Ross left Thursday’s game with left knee soreness, but is expected to play Thursday. … Sergio Santos (shoulder inflammation) will be sidelined for at least the next four weeks. Francisco Cordero is now the man to own in Toronto. … Shin-Soo Choo is day-to-day with left hamstring tightness. … Lorenzo Cain re-strained his groin in a Tuesday rehab appearance with Double-A Northwest Arkansas. Originally set to return Friday, he could now be sidelined several additional weeks. … Chris Parmelee was hit in the head by a Justin Thomas fastball, but appears to have avoided serious injury. He’ll be re-evaluated this afternoon.

As of 8:00 ET This Morning: It will have been 186 days, nine hours and 85 at-bats since Albert Pujols’ last home run. His 0-for-19 hitless streak is also the longest of his career. Angels fans will soon deserve halos for their patience.

 

[HacheMan]

Parker Can't Lose

I could barely believe my eyes late Wednesday night when Dodgers' closer Javy Guerra managed to stay in the game after being struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of Braves' catcher Brian McCann. That's one tough dude. I was legitimately surprised that he wasn't pulled simply for precautionary reasons, even after making it through a couple warm-up pitches, but Dodgers manager Don Mattingly stuck with his man and paid for it.

Guerra proceeded to allow three straight RBI singles to blow the save and take the loss. The most important thing is that he passed a concussion test after the game and isn't expected to miss any time, but he now has a 5.59 ERA over 11 appearances and has struggled a bit recently following a quick start.

There's no indication that Guerra is close to losing his grip on the closer role and perhaps he should get a bit of a pass for what happened after being struck by the liner, but I would scoop up Kenley Jansen (Yahoo: 65 percent owned, ESPN: 55.9 percent) wherever available. He's still the best pitcher in this bullpen.

MIXED LEAGUES

Alcides Escobar SS, Royals (Yahoo: 28 percent owned, ESPN: 18.3 percent)

Escobar entered this season with a lowly .252/.294/.339 batting line over his first 350 games in the big leagues, but he's hitting .303 (20-for-66) over his first 18 games. Just another case of small sample size gone wild? Perhaps. But he's hitting line drives at a career-high rate and .339 his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) isn't outrageous for a player with his speed. The 25-year-old doesn't hit for much power and his plate discipline is still a mess, but he could be pretty valuable out of a MI (middle infielder) spot if he can maintain a decent batting average and swipe 30 bags.

Jarrod Parker SP, Athletics (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 4.1 percent)

Acquired from the D-Backs in December as part of the Trevor Cahill deal, Parker made his A's debut Wednesday and limited the White Sox to one run on seven hits over 6 2/3 innings. The 2007 first-round pick made a successful return from Tommy John surgery last year by posting a 3.79 ERA and 112/55 K/BB ratio over 130 2/3 innings with Double-A Mobile and made his major league debut as a September call-up. Parker has struggled with his command at times, so there may be some bumps in the road (see: upcoming road start against the Red Sox), but he possesses solid strikeout potential and will make half of his starts in one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the game. He's worth a look in most formats.

Alex Presley OF, Pirates (Yahoo: 12 percent owned, ESPN: 6.7 percent)

The Pirates' offense is pretty depressing to watch right now, but Presley is a minor bright spot. The 26-year-old outfielder has followed up on his surprising 2011 campaign by hitting .284 (19-for-67) with a homer, three stolen bases and seven runs scored over his first 17 games. This includes his current 10-game hitting streak. His plate discipline isn't ideal for a leadoff man (16 walks in 237 plate appearances in the big leagues), but Jose Tabata isn't exactly threatening for the gig with his slow start. I could see Presley reaching double-digits in homers and 20-plus stolen bases over a full season, which makes him worth considering in deeper mixed leagues.

Dexter Fowler OF, Rockies (Yahoo: 48 percent owned, ESPN: 19.9 percent)

Fowler went 0-for-4 in the second game of a doubleheader Wednesday against the Pirates, dropping his batting average down to .222 (12-for-54) in the process, but don't throw in the towel yet in mixed leagues. Remember, the 26-year-old center fielder hinted at a breakthrough last year by batting .288/.381/.498 with an .880 OPS after the All-Star break. That's no guarantee of future success, but even if Fowler falls a little short of the lofty expectations that came with being a popular draft day sleeper, he still walks often enough where he should help with runs scored. The Rockies do have a history of jerking him around, though.

Stephen Drew SS, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 27 percent owned, ESPN: 23 percent)

There's no formal timeline for Drew's return from ankle surgery, but he continues to make encouraging progress. The 29-year-old shortstop took ground balls during a workout Monday at Chase Field and also ran the bases at full speed for the first time. If all goes well in extended spring training games this week, it's fair to say an official minor league rehab assignment shouldn't be far off. Drew has frustrated the heck out of fantasy owners since he appeared on the brink of superstardom in 2008, but he makes for a wise stash if you have a DL spot open.

R.A. Dickey SP, Mets (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 8.4 percent)

Dickey had his worst start in four years last week against the Braves, but he bounced back quite nicely on Wednesday night by tossing seven innings of one-run ball in a win over the Marlins. The veteran knuckleballer isn't a great source for strikeouts, despite fanning 22 batters over 24 1/3 innings this season, but he keeps the ball on the ground for the most part and owns a solid 3.16 ERA since joining the Mets in 2010. He's a fine anchor for any mixed league staff.

Jason Hammel SP/RP, Orioles (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 15 percent)

Through his first four starts, Hammel is 3-0 with an outstanding 1.73 ERA and 25/8 K/BB ratio over 26 innings. Where the heck did this come from? It's still a pretty small sample, but the 29-year-old right-hander seems to have reinvented himself a bit. Not only is he throwing harder than he has in the past (93.5 mph average on his fastball compared to 92.6 mph career average), he is also mixing in his slider 10 percent more often than his career average. His ground ball rate has also shot up to 61.8 percent, up from his career average of 45.5 percent. Who knows if any of this is sustainable (keep in mind, he also has a .254 BABIP and 85.4 percent strand rate), but there's room to speculate in deeper mixed leagues. It will be pretty painless to drop him if this all turns out to be an early season mirage. His next start is against the Yankees, so be careful.

Allen Craig 2B/OF, Cardinals (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 15.9 percent)

Craig was feeling so good following offseason knee surgery that the Cardinals were considering putting him on the Opening Day roster as a bench player. However, the Cards ultimately decided to scale things back after he experienced some swelling in the knee toward the end of spring training. The good news is that he hasn't had any issues during his recent rehab assignment and is expected to move to Triple-A Memphis on Thursday. He won't have a clear role upon his return, but with some injury-prone veterans on the club (Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran), he should get chances to contribute. His second base-eligibility makes him an extra sneaky stash in deeper formats.

Addison Reed RP, White Sox (Yahoo: 15 percent owned, ESPN: 5.5 percent)
Matt Thornton RP, White Sox (Yahoo: 40 percent owned, ESPN: 17.1 percent)

Hector Santiago blew his second save in six chances Wednesday and saw his ERA jump up to 8.53 on the young season. White Sox manager Robin Ventura continues to stand behind the young screwballer, who still owns an impressive 10/1 K/BB ratio over 6 1/3 innings, but it's high time for fantasy owners to speculate. Reed (10 strikeouts over 7 1/3 scoreless innings) and Thornton (0.93 ERA and eight strikeouts over 9 2/3 innings) have both been excellent so far this season and should be added wherever available. I'd give a slight edge to Thornton in the short-term since he's the veteran and a few saves could enhance his trade value, but my guess is that Reed will have the role all to himself by the end of the year.

Shopping at the five-and-time:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Gerardo Parra OF, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 8 percent owned, ESPN: 5.3 percent)

Parra won a Gold Glove award last year for his defense in left field, but he also flew under the radar as a pretty decent contributor on offense. The 24-year-old batted .292/.357/.427 with eight homers, 46 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .784 OPS. Not bad. Chris Young is expected to miss more than 15 days with a slight ligament tear in his right shoulder, so Parra should get most of the starts in center field for now. He isn't going to blow you away in any one category, but he does enough to be useful in five-outfield mixed formats.

Trevor Bauer SP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 0.8 percent)

That's right, I'm going there. Josh Collmenter has a miserable 9.82 ERA over his first four starts this season, so it shouldn't be much longer before we see some changes in the D-Backs' rotation. I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Patrick Corbin gets the call first, as Arizona has service time considerations to think about, but he would merely be keeping the seat warm for Bauer. The 2011 first-round pick has allowed just one run over 22 2/3 innings with Double-A Mobile this season while fanning 28 and walking 14. The walk rate is a bit of a concern, but there's little doubt that he has the potential to dominate right away. If you have an empty bench spot available in a mixed league that's 12 teams or deeper, by all means stash away.

Suitable streamer:

Chris Capuano SP, Dodgers (Yahoo: 12 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent)

Capuano has a 3.52 ERA and 20/11 K/BB ratio in 23 innings over his first four starts this season and has allowed two runs or less in each of his last three. The veteran southpaw is not someone I would rely on every time out, but similar to last year with the Mets, he makes for a fine streaming option when he pitches at home. Capuano will face the Nationals on Sunday and while they currently sit in first place in the National League East, they are in the bottom-third in the majors in runs scored. <!--RW-->

NL ONLY

Tony Campana OF, Cubs (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.6 percent)

Campana has only been with the Cubs for five games this season, but he has already made an impact by collecting five hits in 13 at-bats and stealing four bases. While Joe Mather and Reed Johnson will also play some center field now that Marlon Byrd is in Boston, Campana is the most appealing short-term bridge to top prospect Brett Jackson. The 26-year-old isn't going to hit for any power, but he swiped 24 bases in 26 attempts with Chicago last year and has 152 stolen bases in 326 career minor league games. He's an obvious pick up for anyone short on speed.

Andy Parrino 3B, Padres (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Parrino has made his last two starts at shortstop, but if some recent speculation is to be believed, he could eventually take Orlando Hudson's job at second base. The 26-year-old switch-hitter strikes out too much to hit for a high batting average, but he knows how to take a walk and has surprising pop in his bat. Parrino has already started three games at second base and four games at shortstop this season, so multi-position eligibility isn't far away. While I see him as more of a utility infielder-type in the long-term, he could be a really savvy addition if Hudson is eventually shown the door.

Steve Lombardozzi UTIL, Nationals (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Ryan Zimmerman is currently sidelined with AC joint soreness in his right shoulder, so it's time to consider the Nats' backup plans at third base. Mark DeRosa and Chad Tracy both have extensive experience at the position, but Lombardozzi is the most interesting option from a fantasy perspective. The 23-year-old earned a promotion to the big leagues last year after hitting .309/.360/.430 with eight homers, 52 RBI, 30 stolen bases and a .790 OPS between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse. I'd like him a lot more if he qualified at a middle infield position, as he doesn't have much power, but he should hit for a decent average and steal a few bases.

Marco Estrada SP/RP, Brewers (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Another easy call. Chris Narveson is expected to undergo season-ending surgery on his left shoulder, so Estrada will get a chance at a rotation spot in the short-term. The 28-year-old right-hander was effective in a swingman role last year, posting a 4.08 ERA and 88/29 K/BB ratio over 92 2/3 innings, and he struck out a career-high nine while tossing five innings of one-run ball in his first start Saturday against the Rockies. AL ONLY

Pedro Strop RP, Orioles (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 0.5 percent)

O's closer Jim Johnson has been in the hospital this week with what was originally believed to be flu-like symptoms, but manager Buck Showalter indicated Wednesday that the exact nature of his condition remains a mystery. Strop has notched saves in each of the past two games and should be owned in all AL-only leagues until there's some clarity with the situation. The hard-throwing 26-year-old might even be worth a look for some mixed leaguers who have some flexibility on their roster over the next couple of days.

Luke Hughes 1B/2B/3B, Athletics (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

The Twins designated Hughes for assignment last week, but he actually landed in a pretty good situation with Oakland. Josh Donaldson was optioned to the minors earlier this week after getting off to a terrible start, so A's manager Bob Melvin said Hughes will get "every opportunity" to challenge for the starting third base job. The 27-year-old Aussie strikes out too much to hit for a high batting average, but has some pop and is eligible at multiple positions. Eric Sogard also figures to get playing time at the hot corner, so Hughes is best utilized in daily leagues.

Hideki Matsui OF, Free agent (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Nothing official yet, but the Rays are expected to sign Matsui to a minor league contract. The 37-year-old would function as depth with Triple-A Durham initially, but he could potentially serve as a left-handed bat off the bench or split designated hitter duties with Luke Scott. He hit just .251 with 12 homers and a career-low .696 OPS last year with the A's, so his days of mixed league relevancy are behind him, but he's well worth grabbing in AL-only leagues.

Drew Hutchison SP, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Hutchison was pretty shaky in his major league debut Saturday against the Royals, allowing five runs on eight hits and three walks over 5 1/3 innings, but he still walked away with the victory. While it was a bit of a surprise to see him get promoted from Double-A New Hampshire so soon, he's actually pretty polished for a 21-year-old. Featuring a low-90s fastball to go along with a plus-changeup and a developing slider, he averaged just 2.2 BB/9 in the minors and has a knack for commanding the strike zone. Life in the AL East can be pretty tough, so expect some growing pains, but he has a chance to stick in the rotation all year.

 

[HacheMan]

The heart believes ... the head knows

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

So, I sorta love the Lakers' Metta World Peace. Not a popular opinion to have these days. And certainly I don't condone the elbow to James Harden's head in any way, shape or form. But let's put aside that play for a moment. We'll come back to it soon, I promise. But before we do, let's talk about the man formerly known as Ron Artest, and why I love him.

First of all, I love that he changed his name to Metta World Peace. I especially love it during games, when the announcers have to use it in describing action. "World Peace has been blocked!" Or, "That's a three for World Peace!" Or, "He was cornered by World Peace!" "World Peace denied!" And, of course, "Matt Barnes replaces World Peace." That's a tough act to follow for young Mr. Barnes.
I love his hypnotic Twitter feed (@mettaworldpeace), where he tells folks how he "plays defense for the ladies" and wears the short shorts for them, too. Where he asked his followers how many points Kobe Bryant just scored in a game that Metta had played in. And then said "April Fool's!" On April 2.
Where he announced he was going to follow the next 10 people who were the meanest to him and retweeted amazingly cruel comments. And then asked people to stop because he was going to cry. Where he announced "Damn# I just found out I was traded.. see yal later." And then followed that up with this tweet "Oh wow. I'm not traded, that was a old story from four years ago on google .. I typed my name n at bottom of page I clicked number 21."
Or where this is an actual tweet: "Can someone bring me an iPad charger? I don't have one."
I love that he auctioned off the championship ring he won with the Lakers and raised over half a million dollars for mental health charities. I love that he Skypes with fans, regularly gives away tickets, once showed up to a team bus in nothing more than his underwear, and that he has no problem shaving different things into his hair.
I love that he's a pain-in-the-butt defender who gets under the skin of whomever he's guarding. I love the 3-pointer he hit with a minute left in Game 7 against the Celtics to seal the 2009-10 NBA championship. I love the crazy, rambling press conference he gave afterward. Bill Simmons said it perfectly in a tweet after the Lakers won it all: "I don't think I've ever seen anyone happier about anything than Ron Artest."I love that as the Lakers have struggled this year, he has changed his game to fit what the team needs, first focusing on defense but recently becoming much more aggressive on the offensive side.


I love that he's, well, human. More than almost any athlete I can think of, Metta World Peace allows us to see how very "human" he is, the good and the bad, the funny and the tragic, every single emotion, regardless of what light it might paint him in. It's not always pretty, but it's refreshingly open and honest.
I wish I could be that honest. Between this column, my podcast, Twitter (www.twitter.com/matthewberrytmr) and Facebook (www.facebook.com/matthewjberry), I try to be as honest as I can, but if I'm, er, being honest, I'm not as honest as I'd like to be, for various reasons, including my job and people I care about. It's so tough to be so raw, so emotionally open and out there, especially when you have as many eyes on you as Metta does.
Add all of that admiration to the fact that I'm also a diehard Lakers fan. I lived in Virginia until I was 12 (hence my Washington Redskins love), but never fell for any other team around there. Once I moved out to Los Angeles, I split Laker tickets with buddies, eventually taking them over myself and keeping them to this day, even though I now live in Connecticut (too valuable to give up). So I love him because he's a Laker as well.
This is why I was so upset when Metta's elbow hit James Harden's head. The first time I saw it, in live action, I thought it wasn't intentional, that World Peace had just gotten so caught up in the moment, hadn't seen Harden and it happened. That it was bad, sure, but it wasn't that bad.
That's what I wanted to believe. That's what was in my heart.
Then I saw the replays. Over and over again, from many angles, at many different speeds. Here's slow motion! Here's super slo-mo! Here's you-can-actually-see-the-sweat-beads-knocked-off-him slo-mo!
And I felt sick. I couldn't fool myself anymore. No one will ever know if it was intentional or not, but man, it looked bad. Really bad. I can't even argue with the seven-game suspension. Even though my heart wanted to believe it wasn't that bad, my gut and eyes told me a different story.Which is often the case in fantasy baseball. You want to believe, with all your heart. But deep down, you know better. But considering we are just a few weeks into the season, the truth is there isn't nearly enough of a sample size to really do anything worthwhile with statistics. So this is a gut-call column. Not a ton of stats today; we had a lot last week and they'll return next week, but this week, it's heart versus head, gut and eyes.


What my heart wants to believe: That Francisco Liriano will turn it around and be an ace. He's always been a "fantasy kryptonite" guy for me, someone whose potential I couldn't resist, and I bought in after his huge spring. Plus, I own him in AL Tout Wars, a deep 12-team, 27-man-roster league comprised of industry analysts. So I really could use him, too.
What my head, gut and eyes know: He's lost, and wherever he is, he ain't comin' back. He's too much of a head case now. If he does have success, it'll be inconsistent. I'm dropping him in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.
Heart believes: Jake Peavy is just getting lucky. The guy who has crushed many fantasy owners' hearts in recent years can't have finally gotten back to being good, could he? He'll get injured soon and I won't curse myself for ignoring him and my proven-player-coming-off-a-bad-year(s) theory.
Head knows: He's back. Great strikeout-to-walk ratio, he has beaten legit teams, he has dominated the bad ones … he's officially above the "Wandy line."
Heart believes: Peavy's teammate, Philip Humber, is a finesse guy you just stream in when he has good matchups. Yes, he had a perfect game, but come on, it was the Mariners! He can't strike out enough batters for 10-team mixed league consideration.
Head knows: He has become a different pitcher. Since July 1 of last year through his first two starts this season, his K/9 is 8.14. He's the real deal.
Heart believes: There's nothing wrong with Jon Lester. He's just off to a slow start, like in 2010, and he'll ultimately be great.
Head knows: This is going to be another crazy, lost season for the Red Sox. Lester ultimately will be fine, but closer to a top-20 guy than the top-10 stud you drafted. Good, not great.
Heart believes: That Josh Hamilton, who I didn't manage to get in any of my five leagues this year, will come back to earth and stop inflicting damage on me in every league (except, of course, my NL-only league).
Head knows: He's not stopping anytime soon. This is a special year for him. He's in a contract year, he wants to prove the offseason issues are behind him, he has acknowledged that he doesn't know how much time he has left at an elite level because of what he put his body through early in his career. This is going to be an otherworldly year for Josh Hamilton.
Heart believes: Derek Jeter's hot start is just a mirage. He'll soon revert back to being the run-of-the-mill decent but nothing special fantasy shortstop he has been in recent years. I've never been a huge fan of Jeter as a fantasy option, and my rankings over the years have reflected that.
Head knows: He just looks like a different person this year. Or at least a younger version of himself. I saw an at-bat he had recently against Matt Capps, in which he battled, battled and battled some more until eventually hitting a home run off him. I know, it's Matt Capps, but still. The Captain is back to being an upper-level fantasy shortstop, and he'll stay there this season.Heart believes: Jose Bautista will revert back to his 40-homer, high-average ways and be worthy of a top-five pick at the end of the year.
Head knows: It's gonna be more like 30 or so homers and somewhere in the .250 range batting average-wise. We saw hints of this over the second half last year, when he started striking out more, and it wasn't a fluke, it was the start of a trend. I'm happy he is still walking and getting on base, but the batting average is gonna be closer to his career mark of .253, and the power numbers will be down from what you expect, especially given the batting-average hit you'll be taking.


Heart believes: That Brandon Belt is going to get regular playing time soon, blossom into the stud we've all been waiting for, and everyone will live happily ever after.
Head knows: As we say on the podcast, they hate him with a "Motte-like" intensity. Well, almost. Things have gotten better lately, but still. I don't what it is, but with Nate Schierholtz crushing, and Brett Pill being solid, I see them continuing to mess with Belt, especially once Aubrey Huff starts hitting. It'll be another frustrating year to own Belt, who will tease us enough this year so people won't want to bail on him but won't produce enough to be worth it.
Heart believes: Michael Bourn is gonna make me look smart. I got a lot of flak for my high ranking and promotion of Bourn (and, oddly, his Braves teammate Brandon Beachy. Why didn't people like him as much as me?), and at the end of the year, he'll more than live up to the high ranking.
Head knows: Bourn is a stud, and he has righted the ship after a slow start. (Beachy, meanwhile, continues to make me think I should have named my daughters "Brandon" and "Beachy.") Bourn will continue to produce. Here's the problem, though. Part of the appeal of Bourn was that he could win you a category single-handedly. And while he's gonna have a ton of steals this year, so are my other preseason faves Dee Gordon and Emilio Bonifacio, among others. Bourn's advantage ultimately won't be as great.Heart believes: Fernando Rodney will revert to being the terrible pitcher he was with my Angels and fade back into fantasy obscurity.
Head knows: He's a different pitcher. I could totally see the Rays sticking with him all year or Kyle Farnsworth faltering soon after returning and Rodney reclaiming the job. In fact, I now believe Fernando Rodney will lead the Rays in saves at the end of the season.


Heart believes: That Adam Wainwright will turn it around. That he is not going to get outpitched this year by Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse.
Head knows: That for once my heart is right. I do actually like Lohse and Westbrook in NL-only leagues or as spot starters in mixed leagues, but Wainwright is too good. He'll get back on track.
Heart believes: That Josh Johnson's Tuesday night start was the beginning of a great, healthy season.
Head knows: That ain't happening.
Heart believes: That Hector Santiago, he of the limited track record and control problems in the minors, will lose the job as closer of the White Sox and that Matt Thornton, who I own at a dirt-cheap price in my longtime AL-only keeper league, will become the closer.
Head knows: That the White Sox really like Santiago, and he has a longer leash than you might think. He will lead the White Sox in saves this year. If for some reason he falters, they'll go to Addison Reed instead of Thornton. I'm doomed to a life without saves from Matt Thornton.Heart believes: That all my teams -- and all of yours -- will win the title this year.
Head knows: Of course they will. It's way too early to be bailing on the season … no matter what your head is telling you.

 

[HacheMan]

Top 30 options for holds

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Middle relievers are an underappreciated bunch.

Oh sure, as a whole, this group earned a collective $39.6 million worth of guaranteed contracts this past winter, not to mention earned four spots on 2011 All-Star rosters. But let's face it: Jonathan Papelbon fetched $50 million of guaranteed money this past winter, and Papelbon's closer brethren earned nine All-Star berths.


When it comes to relief pitching, the save is the "sexy" statistic. The hold is not.


Well, not necessarily so in fantasy baseball. Though not a statistic used in mainstream Rotisserie leagues, holds have their place in many custom scoring formats. The pitchers who collect them, meanwhile, also have some appeal in traditional Rotisserie: The best ones usually can bolster your ERA and WHIP, and sometimes, just sometimes, they can "graduate" into more prominent closer roles.


Today, let's shine the light upon those underappreciated middle men, those key contributors who bridge the gap from starter to finisher. Ranked below are my projected top 30 in holds, along with a 1-10 rating in three categories:


Skills: Self-explanatory, but since this is fantasy analysis, this specifically addresses the pitcher's ability in terms of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.


Role: Specifically, where does the reliever fit in the team's pecking order? Is he the primary eighth-inning option, maximizing his potential for holds? Pitchers with higher rankings here are the most likely to finish with more holds.

Closer prospects: Again self-explanatory, this estimates the pitcher's chances at moving into the closer role this season. Consider a good rating here a positive, being that most owners in holds leagues also get points for saves.


1. Jonny Venters, Atlanta Braves (Skills 10, Role 10, Closer prospects 1): As obvious a pick as they come. He's in his third season, has a 1.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.3 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio and 63 holds so far in his career.


2. David Robertson, New York Yankees (Skills 10, Role 10, Closer prospects 2): It was so kind of Mariano Rivera to help teach Robertson a cutter; did Robertson really need another pitch to increase his level of dominance? Robertson is probably Rivera's eventual successor -- though that'd only happen the season following Rivera's retirement -- but he's also quite a handy ERA/WHIP/K's source.


3. Mike Adams, Texas Rangers (Skills 10, Role 9, Closer prospects 4): He has a 1.41 ERA since the beginning of the 2009 season, and his lifetime ERA at Rangers Ballpark is 1.29 in 21 games. Let those numbers sink in for a moment.


4. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (Skills 9, Role 9, Closer prospects 6): He has averaged 15. 1 strikeouts per nine innings in his first 88 big league appearances. Oh, and Javy Guerra's performance to date hasn't been spotless. Jensen's holds could soon become saves; would you complain if they did?



TOP 75 RELIEF PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 75 relief pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Kimbrel, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mariano Rivera, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Papelbon, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Axford, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Valverde, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Putz, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Motte, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Hanrahan, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon League, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Betancourt, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sean Marshall, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Nathan, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Huston Street, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Heath Bell, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Walden, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jim Johnson, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Grant Balfour, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Henry Rodriguez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Javy Guerra, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Frank Francisco, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Perez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aroldis Chapman, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Santiago Casilla, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Myers, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Marmol, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Capps, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alfredo Aceves, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Adams, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Robertson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonny Venters, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Broxton, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sergio Santos, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Cordero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tyler Clippard, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Addison Reed, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hector Santiago, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vinnie Pestano, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sergio Romo, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Farnsworth, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Hernandez, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Rodriguez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alexi Ogando, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joaquin Benoit, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Storen, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Greg Holland, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Downs, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew Bailey, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brad Lidge, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew Cashner, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rex Brothers, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Glen Perkins, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bryan Shaw, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Thornton, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luis Perez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Rauch, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Antonio Bastardo, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Cook, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Peralta, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Soriano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Lindstrom, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Dolis, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Juan Cruz, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mitchell Boggs, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tony Sipp, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kerry Wood, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edward Mujica, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kris Medlen, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Crow, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Eric O'Flaherty, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ernesto Frieri, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pedro Strop, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Salas, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr></tbody></table>




5. Joaquin Benoit, Detroit Tigers (Skills 9, Role 10, Closer prospects 1): There were more than a few chuckles when the Tigers signed Benoit to a three-year, $16.5 million contract following the 2010 season. So far, the Tigers are on track to have the last laugh: He has a 3.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 35 holds since.


6. Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals (Skills 8, Role 10, Closer prospects 1): Only Adams has had more holds (75) than Clippard (66) since the beginning of 2010. When the Nationals were seeking a fill-in for injured closer Drew Storen, they selected a combination of Henry Rodriguez and Brad Lidge, showing that they much prefer Clippard locked into the eighth-inning role. If you're in a league that awards for holds, you couldn't be happier, because he's as consistent as they come.


7. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds (Skills 10, Role 7, Closer prospects 3): Of the top 10 names on this list, Chapman might be the one least likely to actually finish among the top 10 in holds, and that's not because of the prospect of him changing roles -- to starter or closer -- either. It's because the Reds like to use Chapman for longer outings, perhaps putting a cap on his number of total appearances (and therefore opportunities for holds). That enhances his ERA/WHIP/K's appeal, however, and his skills rival anyone's on this entire list, so let's take a chance on him making a sneaky run at the categorical lead.


8. Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers (Skills 9, Role 8, Closer prospects 2): This might seem like a generous ranking, but I've long admired Ogando's stuff, which has always had the look of a closer's. Counting the postseason, he has a 1.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.29 K's-per-nine innings ratio in 73 career relief appearances. Let's also not discount the fact that the aforementioned Adams is higher in the Rangers' bullpen pecking order, should 37-year-old closer Joe Nathan need to be replaced. If Adams moves into the ninth, Ogando might become a top-five setup man.


9. Vinnie Pestano, Cleveland Indians (Skills 8, Role 9, Closer prospects 6): He's a popular sleeper for saves, and until such time as he overtakes the incumbent, Chris Perez, he's as valuable a source of holds as you'll find. Pestano is not without his weaknesses, however, which is why he isn't ranked higher; left-handed hitters have a lifetime OPS 400 points higher (.831) off him than right-handers (.431) do.


10. Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox (Skills 8, Role 7, Closer prospects 7): Of anyone on this list, Reed has about the best chance at regular saves; if it's not Jansen, Reed would be the one I'd predict to lead these 25 relievers in that category come season's end. So far he has thrown 7 1/3 shutout innings with three holds and a 12.3 K's-per-nine ratio. Reed won't be able to be kept buried in the seventh inning for much longer.


11. Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers (Skills 7, Role 10, Closer prospects 2): He has 292 career saves to his credit, yet has settled in nicely as John Axford's setup man, a role he should remain in all season. K-Rod has a 2.82 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 20 holds in 42 games during his Brewers career.


12. David Hernandez, Arizona Diamondbacks (Skills 8, Role 9, Closer prospects 4): Though his ERA is 3.32 during his year-plus with the Diamondbacks, Hernandez's 1.12 WHIP and 10.4 K's-per-nine ratio put him right up there with the game's most valuable setup men. He's actually a bit underrated.


13. Scott Downs, Los Angeles Angels (Skills 8, Role 9, Closer prospects 2): He has recorded 24 or more holds in four of the past five seasons, and has quietly become one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball during that span.


14. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants (Skills 8, Role 8, Closer prospects 3): Injuries have been his primary obstacle in the past, but when Romo is healthy, he's as sure a thing as an eighth-inning reliever can be.


15. Eric O'Flaherty, Atlanta Braves (Skills 8, Role 7, Closer prospects 1): He's no longer a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY), having limited right-handed hitters to .233/.305/.294 triple-slash rates in 2011. Still, valuable as O'Flaherty has become, he's not the primary eighth-inning man.


16. Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees (Skills 7, Role 6, Closer prospects 1): He has slipped a notch on the "relief ladder" in each of the past two seasons, but even today the Yankees still trust him as their go-to seventh-inning guy … and they do have the kind of offense that can hand him a close lead even that early.


17. Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox (Skills 8, Role 6, Closer prospects 3): It's worth asking: If Thornton really has "closer stuff," why isn't he closing for the White Sox right now? He looks like your prototypical eighth-inning, left-handed setup man, as his 89 holds since 2008 attest.


18. Joel Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays (Skills 7, Role 6, Closer prospects 2): Though Peralta is off to a slow start, he remains one of their more reliable late-inning options. The question: Does he drop back to the seventh inning, or worse, mop-up relief, once Kyle Farnsworth returns to action?


19. Sean Burnett, Washington Nationals (Skills 7, Role 5, Closer prospects 1): LOOGYs do tend to rack up holds, and Burnett is one of the better ones in baseball. The Nationals pick his spots well; just expect fewer innings than last year.


20. Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners (Skills 5, Role 8, Closer prospects 2): He's the sleeper of the bunch, a ground-baller with genuine swing-and-miss stuff who might yet still be available in your holds league. Wilhelmsen's appeal is how solid his role is: He's a workhorse for a Mariners team lacking in eighth-inning options. He'll have a lengthy leash and could be a lock for 20-25 holds.


21. Tony Sipp, Cleveland Indians (Skills 6, Role 6, Closer prospects 2): Though third in the pecking order in the Indians' bullpen, Sipp might actually have stuff that could rival for the No. 1 spot. For now, he's the lefty the Indians can sneak into crucial late-inning situations, stealing you a hold or three.


22. Mitchell Boggs, St. Louis Cardinals (Skills 7, Role 6, Closer prospects 2): Hey, remember him? Boggs, a closer for an ever-so-brief time last season, has returned to form as a reliable late-inning weapon for the Cardinals this year. He appears to have nearly overtaken Fernando Salas as the team's No. 2 reliever.


23. Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies (Skills 5, Role 7, Closer prospects 3): As soon as he polishes his command, Brothers should skyrocket in the middle-relief rankings, his mid-90s fastball/slider combination making him a potential league leader in holds in the future … if he doesn't elevate to closer by then.


24. Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics (Skills 6, Role 6, Closer prospects 1): He's the name on this list you might never have heard of, but Cook already has four holds and 9 scoreless innings, and has seemingly snuck ahead of Brian Fuentes in the Athletics' bullpen pecking order.

25. Luis Perez, Toronto Blue Jays (Skills 6, Role 5, Closer prospects 1): Another name with which you might be unfamiliar, but Perez has been outstanding so far for the Blue Jays, despite working in middle/long relief. He has 11 1/3 scoreless innings to date, and should move himself into the eighth-inning pitcher position before long, especially with that role wide open with Sergio Santos on the DL.


26. Bryan Shaw, Arizona Diamondbacks (Skills 5, Role 6, Closer prospects 2): Good teams can have three valuable sources of holds; remember that 90-win teams have a higher probability of late leads, and you can't get a hold without being handed a late lead. Shaw, who already has two saves in fill-in circumstances, has emerged as the Diamondbacks' primary seventh-inning option.


27. Matt Lindstrom, Baltimore Orioles (Skills 5, Role 6, Closer prospects 2): This spot could just as easily have gone to Pedro Strop as Lindstrom; I merely believe in Lindstrom's skill set and staying power more than I do Strop's. (Strop would likely have been the next reliever on the list, had it extended beyond 30.) Most importantly, Lindstrom has vastly improved his control since the beginning of last season, averaging 2.35 walks per nine innings during that span.


28. Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals (Skills 5, Role 5, Closer prospects 3): Here's another case of "take your pick"; Greg Holland, once healthy, might be every bit as likely to lead the Royals in holds as Crow. Crow is off to another hot start, however, and the eighth-inning role for the team is currently wide open.


29. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins (Skills 6, Role 4, Closer prospects 4): There's a reason Perkins ranks so low on this list and it's not his 8.53 ERA to date; it's that, in spite of a 2.48 ERA last season, he managed but 17 holds, and it's not like this year's Twins team is that much more competitive than 2011's. Holds aren't plentiful in Minnesota, though Perkins has excellent stuff.


30. Jon Rauch, New York Mets (Skills 4, Role 6, Closer prospects 3): He has a 0.00 ERA through 10 appearances and is the primary setup man to Frank Francisco. The problem with that, however, is that Rauch might have as good a chance at saves as holds, considering Francisco's injury history.

 

[HacheMan]

With Zim out, Nats need LaRoche to hit

Eric Karabell

No National League team entered play Thursday with a better record than the upstart Washington Nationals. Manager Davey Johnson's team has been able to thrive due to terrific pitching (major league-leading 2.20 ERA), timely hitting, a whole lot of walks (third in baseball) and let's face it, a cake schedule. However, oft-injured third baseman Ryan Zimmerman's shoulder is hurting, and if he misses weeks instead of days, it's reasonable to wonder if this team can score enough runs to keep winning these close games.


That's where first baseman Adam LaRoche comes in. Including his three hits Wednesday, LaRoche is batting .313 and leads the club in pretty much every offensive category except stolen bases. He's first in batting average, tied for the lead with two home runs, is the only National in double digits in RBIs, and he sports an .880 OPS. Washington's top five options on the ESPN Player Rater are pitchers, but LaRoche leads the offense, and he's 73rd on the Rater among all hitters. It's not fantastic, but there's value here.
<offer>Entering Thursday, LaRoche ranked fifth among first basemen on our most-added list, and he's owned in 78.2 percent of leagues. That seems legitimate; fantasy owners should be interested in a player who has shown consistent power, when healthy, through the years. However, it was a bit tough to make a case for LaRoche back in March, which is why ignoring him on draft day made sense. After all, he missed most of 2011 after left shoulder surgery, and when he did play, it was unimpressive (.172 batting average). Of course, how can someone hit effectively with a bum shoulder?</offer>
LaRoche used to be one of my late sleeper picks at corner infield, a steady, consistent yet often overlooked performer who produced reasonable power numbers for the Braves, Pirates and Diamondbacks before landing in D.C. And certainly the Nationals' rumored offseason flirtation with free-agent first baseman Prince Fielder gave pause that even they believed LaRoche would be able to contribute. LaRoche hit 25 home runs for the 2010 Diamondbacks, knocking in more than 90 runs for the first time. He hit 32 home runs in 2006 and 25 in 2008 and 2009. In general, his batting average sits in the .270 range and he won't score many runs or steal bases, but with scoring down across baseball, any potential 25-homer guy matters.For the Nationals, a team that hasn't had the services of top power option Michael Morse and could be losing regular No. 3 hitter Zimmerman for a few weeks, if not more, with a shoulder problem (sounds again like a Scott Rolen career path to me), the pressure will turn to LaRoche to continue his hot start. This is not a top-shelf offense; the Nationals enter Thursday ranked 22nd in runs scored, and only the Chicago Cubs have fewer than their 10 home runs. The top of the lineup features impatient, low-OBP middle infielders (Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa), and Jayson Werth isn't hitting for power (nearly half his RBIs have come on bases-loaded walks!). The schedule-makers gifted the Nats with the Cubs, Mets, Astros and Padres already, and the team is 6-2 in one-run games. In other words, the competition will get tougher.


LaRoche hit his home runs in the second and third games of the season against the Cubs, but hasn't hit any since. Wednesday's RBI single off Padres lefty Josh Spence was his first in more than a week. And it's difficult to expect him to hit near .300 much longer. Still, this has always been an underrated power source, and it's reasonable to overlook 2011 as an injury-plagued campaign. I wouldn't call LaRoche a top-20 first baseman, so perhaps this would be a good time for fantasy owners to test his value on the open market, but unless injury strikes, he shouldn't embarrass himself either. Expect more than 20 home runs, 80 RBIs and a .270 batting average. I can't say definitively that any of the four first basemen being added in more leagues over the past week -- Bryan LaHair, Justin Morneau, Mike Carp, Adam Dunn -- will end up providing all three of those statistical benchmarks. LaHair is holding the job for Anthony Rizzo, though I think he'll continue to hit. Morneau's concussion issues are well-documented. Carp isn't proven or special by any means, and has to hit half the time at Safeco Field. And Dunn will reach those power numbers, but hit .240. LaRoche falls below the Freddie Freeman/Carlos Pena range at first base for me, but he's in the same class as Kendrys Morales, Mat Gamel and Ike Davis (each 20-80 options), and batting average-killers Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Davis and Justin Smoak. It would have been tough to guess that a month ago, but that's why most fantasy leagues have free agency.

 

[HacheMan]

Forecaster: April 30-May 6

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

On tap: Fresh off his 8 1/3-shutout-inning, 10-strikeout masterpiece versus the New York Yankees, Yu Darvish headlines the list of Week 4's two-start pitchers. He and his Texas Rangers take to the road to battle the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians. The Rogers Centre game is the tricky one; the Blue Jays' 115 home runs there are fifth-most among home teams since the start of 2011.

Darvish isn't the only hot-starting starter to be tested with a tricky two-start week. Among the top 30 starting pitchers on the Player Rater (as of April 27): The Baltimore Orioles' Jason Hammel pitches both at New York and Boston; the Oakland Athletics' Tommy Milone pitches at Boston and Tampa Bay; both the Atlanta Braves' Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor make their second starts of the week at Colorado's Coors Field; and the Chicago White Sox's Chris Sale makes his second start of the week at the Detroit Tigers.


ESPN leagues: Week 4


Week 4 in ESPN leagues begins earlier than usual, due to the Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins concluding game of a four-game set, Monday at 12:40 p.m. ET. These are the start times of the first games each day:


<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Date</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Time (ET)</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Teams</th><th style="width: 1px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Date</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Time (ET)</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Teams</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Mon 4/30</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12:40 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">ARI, MIA</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Fri 5/4</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2:20 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">CHC, LAD</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Tue 5/1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">ARI, BAL, DET, KC, NYY, WAS</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Sat 5/5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">CHC, LAD, PHI, WAS</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Wed 5/2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12:37 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">TEX, TOR</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Sun 5/6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">CHW, CLE, DET, TEX</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Thu 5/3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12:10 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">ATL, PHI</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> </td></tr></tbody></table>



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Probable starting pitchers | Week 4 pitcher rankings | Pitching notes
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Projected starting pitchers



The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 35px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Team</center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Mon
4/30</center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Tue
5/1</center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Wed
5/2</center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Thu
5/3</center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Fri
5/4</center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Sat
5/5</center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Sun
5/6</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@NYY
Hammel
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYY
Matusz
(LHP)
P: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYY
Arrieta
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
Chen
(LHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
Hunter
(RHP)
P: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@BOS
Hammel
(RHP)
P: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">OAK
Buchholz
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
Doubront
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
Bard
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
Lester
(LHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
Beckett
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">BAL
Buchholz
(RHP)
P: 5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">CLE
Sale
(LHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CLE
Humber
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CLE
Danks
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
Peavy
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
Floyd
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@DET
Sale
(LHP)
P: 8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@CHW
Jimenez
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHW
Tomlin
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHW
Masterson
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
Gomez
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
Lowe
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">TEX
Jimenez
(RHP)
P: 7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">KC
TBD

P: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">KC
Porcello
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">KC
Verlander
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHW
Smyly
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHW
Scherzer
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHW
TBD

P: 1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@DET
Hochevar
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@DET
Mendoza
(RHP)
P: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
Duffy
(LHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYY
Chen
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYY
Sanchez
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">NYY
Hochevar
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">NYY
Mendoza
(RHP)
P: 1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIN
Wilson
(LHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIN
Williams
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
Weaver
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TOR
Haren
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TOR
Santana
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">TOR
Wilson
(LHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">TOR
Williams
(RHP)
P: 5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@LAA
Hendriks
(RHP)
P: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
Liriano
(LHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
Pavano
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SEA
Marquis
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SEA
Blackburn
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@SEA
Hendriks
(RHP)
P: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">BAL
Kuroda
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">BAL
Hughes
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
Nova
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@KC
Garcia
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@KC
Sabathia
(LHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@KC
Kuroda
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@KC
Hughes
(RHP)
P: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@BOS
Milone
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
Parker
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
McCarthy
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
Ross
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
Colon
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@TB
Milone
(LHP)
P: 8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@TB
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@TB
Noesi
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
Beavan
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
Millwood
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
Vargas
(LHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIN
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIN
Noesi
(RHP)
P: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">SEA
Hellickson
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">SEA
Moore
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">SEA
Shields
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">SEA
Niemann
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
Price
(LHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">OAK
Hellickson
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">OAK
Moore
(LHP)
P: 6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@TOR
Darvish
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TOR
Feliz
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TOR
Harrison
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CLE
Lewis
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CLE
Holland
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@CLE
Darvish
(RHP)
P: 6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">TEX
Drabek
(RHP)
P: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">TEX
Hutchison
(RHP)
P: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
Romero
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
Morrow
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
Alvarez
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@LAA
Drabek
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@LAA
Hutchison
(RHP)
P: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@MIA
Collmnter
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@WAS
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
Saunders
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
Kennedy
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYM
Miley
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@NYM
Collmnter
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@NYM
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">PIT
Minor
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">PHI
Beachy
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
Delgado
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
Hudson
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@COL
Minor
(LHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@COL
Beachy
(RHP)
P: 9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@PHI
Samardzija
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@CIN
Volstad
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CIN
Maholm
(LHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CIN
Wells
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
Garza
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">LAD
Samardzija
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">LAD
Volstad
(RHP)
P: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">CHC
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHC
Bailey
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHC
Leake
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@PIT
Cueto
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@PIT
Latos
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@PIT
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">LAD
Nicasio
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
Chacin
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
Pomeranz
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ATL
Guthrie
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ATL
Moyer
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">ATL
Nicasio
(RHP)
P: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">NYM
Happ
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYM
TBD

P: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYM
W.Rdrguez
(LHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">STL
Harrell
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">STL
Norris
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">STL
Happ
(LHP)
P: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@COL
Harang
(RHP)
P: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
Lilly
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
Kershaw
(LHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHC
Billingsley
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHC
Capuano
(LHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@CHC
Harang
(RHP)
P: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">ARI
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@SF
Nolasco
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
Zambrano
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
Sanchez
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
Johnson
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@SD
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@SD
Nolasco
(RHP)
P: 6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@SD
Wolf
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
Marcum
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
Gallardo
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
Estrada
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
Greinke
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@SF
Wolf
(LHP)
P: 5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@HOU
Dickey
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
Niese
(LHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
Schwinden
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
Gee
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
Santana
(LHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">ARI
Dickey
(RHP)
P: 6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">CHC
Worley
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@ATL
Hamels
(LHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@ATL
Halladay
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@ATL
Blanton
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
Kendrick
(RHP)
P: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@WAS
Worley
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@WAS
Hamels
(LHP)
P: 8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@ATL
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@STL
Morton
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@STL
Burnett
(RHP)
P: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@STL
Bedard
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CIN
Correia
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">CIN
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">CIN
Morton
(RHP)
P: 5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">PIT
Wainwright
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PIT
Lynn
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PIT
Westbrook
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
Lohse
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
Garcia
(LHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">@HOU
Wainwright
(RHP)
P: 8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIL
Wieland
(RHP)
P: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
Volquez
(RHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
Luebke
(LHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
Bass
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
Richard
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIA
Wieland
(RHP)
P: 5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIA
Cain
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
Zito
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
Vogelsong
(RHP)
P: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
Lincecum
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
Bumgarner
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">MIL
Cain
(RHP)
P: 10</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">ARI
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
Jackson
(RHP)
P: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
Detwiler
(LHP)
P: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
Strasburg
(RHP)
P: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
Gonzalez
(LHP)
P: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">PHI
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 9</td></tr></tbody></table>P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.





Tristan's Week 4 pitcher rankings: Top 75



1. Matt Cain (SF) -- Tue-MIA (Nolasco), Sun-MIL (Wolf)
2. Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Mon-@TB (Hellickson), Sat-MIN (Blackburn)
3. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Tue-@ATL (Beachy), Sun-@WAS (Zimmermann)
4. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Mon-MIN (Hendriks), Sat-TOR (Drabek)
5. Roy Halladay (PHI) -- Wed-@ATL (Hanson)
6. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Wed-KC (Duffy)
7. Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) -- Tue-ARI (Cahill), Sun-PHI (Hamels)
8. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Wed-MIN (Pavano)
9. Brandon Beachy (ATL) -- Tue-PHI (Hamels), Sun-@COL (Nicasio)
10. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Wed-@COL (Pomeranz)
11. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) -- Fri-PHI (Kendrick)
12. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Mon-SEA (Hernandez), Sat-OAK (Colon)
13. Chris Sale (CHW) -- Tue-CLE (Jimenez), Sun-@DET (TBD)
14. David Price (TB) -- Fri-OAK (Ross)
15. Zack Greinke (MIL) -- Sat-@SF (Bumgarner)
16. CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Fri-@KC (Sanchez)
17. Yu Darvish (TEX) -- Mon-@TOR (Drabek), Sun-@CLE (Jimenez)
18. Gio Gonzalez (WAS) -- Sat-PHI (Worley)
19. Cory Luebke (SD) -- Wed-MIL (Gallardo)
20. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Tue-PIT (Morton), Sun-@HOU (Happ)
21. Vance Worley (PHI) -- Mon-CHC (Samardzija), Sat-@WAS (Gonzalez)
22. James Shields (TB) -- Wed-SEA (Beavan)
23. Matt Garza (CHC) -- Fri-LAD (Billingsley)
24. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Tue-@CHW (Sale), Sun-TEX (Darvish)
25. Tommy Hanson (ATL) -- Wed-PHI (Halladay)
26. Jake Peavy (CHW) -- Fri-@DET (Smyly)
27. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Sat-MIL (Greinke)
28. Matt Moore (TB) -- Tue-SEA (Noesi), Sun-OAK (Milone)
29. Shaun Marcum (MIL) -- Tue-@SD (Volquez)
30. Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Fri-MIL (Estrada)
31. Neftali Feliz (TEX) -- Tue-@TOR (Hutchison)
32. Mike Minor (ATL) -- Mon-PIT (McDonald), Sat-@COL (Moyer)
33. Ian Kennedy (ARI) -- Thu-@WAS (Detwiler)
34. Ricky Nolasco (MIA) -- Tue-@SF (Cain), Sun-@SD (Wieland)
35. Dan Haren (LAA) -- Thu-TOR (Morrow)
36. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) -- Mon-BAL (Hammel), Sat-@KC (Hochevar)
37. Johnny Cueto (CIN) -- Fri-@PIT (Correia)
38. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Fri-BAL (Chen)
39. Lance Lynn (STL) -- Wed-PIT (Burnett)
40. Josh Johnson (MIA) -- Fri-@SD (Bass)
41. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Wed-@SD (Luebke)
42. Trevor Cahill (ARI) -- Tue-@WAS (Zimmermann), Sun-@NYM (Dickey)
43. Ricky Romero (TOR) -- Wed-TEX (Harrison)
44. Philip Humber (CHW) -- Wed-CLE (Tomlin)
45. Anibal Sanchez (MIA) -- Thu-@SF (Vogelsong)
46. Tommy Milone (OAK) -- Mon-@BOS (Buchholz), Sun-@TB (Moore)
47. Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) -- Wed-NYM (Schwinden)
48. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Sat-@PIT (McDonald)
49. Jaime Garcia (STL) -- Sat-@HOU (Norris)
50. Josh Beckett (BOS) -- Sat-BAL (Hunter)
51. Mark Buehrle (MIA) -- Mon-ARI (Collmenter), Sat-@SD (Richard)
52. Colby Lewis (TEX) -- Fri-@CLE (Gomez)
53. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) -- Mon-@PHI (Worley), Sat-LAD (Capuano)
54. Chad Billingsley (LAD) -- Fri-@CHC (Garza)
55. Daniel Bard (BOS) -- Wed-OAK (McCarthy)
56. R.A. Dickey (NYM) -- Mon-@HOU (Happ), Sun-ARI (Cahill)
57. Johan Santana (NYM) -- Sat-ARI (Collmenter)
58. Jeff Niemann (TB) -- Thu-SEA (Millwood)
59. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Tue-CHC (Volstad), Sun-@PIT (Morton)
60. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) -- Thu-MIA (Sanchez)
61. Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Tue-@HOU (TBD)
62. John Danks (CHW) -- Thu-CLE (Masterson)
63. Brandon Morrow (TOR) -- Thu-@LAA (Haren)
64. Jake Westbrook (STL) -- Thu-PIT (Bedard)
65. Barry Zito (SF) -- Wed-MIA (Zambrano)
66. Matt Harrison (TEX) -- Wed-@TOR (Romero)
67. Jason Vargas (SEA) -- Fri-MIN (Marquis)
68. James McDonald (PIT) -- Mon-@ATL (Minor), Sat-CIN (Latos)
69. Derek Holland (TEX) -- Sat-@CLE (Lowe)
70. Edwin Jackson (WAS) -- Wed-ARI (Saunders)
71. Bartolo Colon (OAK) -- Sat-@TB (Hellickson)
72. Ross Detwiler (WAS) -- Thu-ARI (Kennedy)
73. Kyle Lohse (STL) -- Fri-@HOU (Harrell)
74. Ivan Nova (NYY) -- Wed-BAL (Arrieta)
75. Erik Bedard (PIT) -- Thu-@STL (Westbrook)

Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Clay Buchholz (BOS) -- Mon-OAK (Milone), Sun-BAL (Hammel)
Kyle Drabek (TOR) -- Mon-TEX (Darvish), Sat-@LAA (Wilson)
Jason Hammel (BAL) -- Mon-@NYY (Kuroda), Sun-@BOS (Buchholz)
Juan Nicasio (COL) -- Mon-LAD (Harang), Sun-ATL (Beachy)
Joe Wieland (SD) -- Mon-MIL (Wolf), Sun-MIA (Nolasco)
Randy Wolf (MIL) -- Mon-@SD (Wieland), Sun-@SF (Cain)

No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Josh Collmenter (ARI) -- Mon-@MIA (Buehrle), Sat-@NYM (Santana)
J.A. Happ (HOU) -- Mon-NYM (Dickey), Sun-STL (Wainwright)
Aaron Harang (LAD) -- Mon-@COL (Nicasio), Sun-@CHC (Volstad)
Liam Hendriks (MIN) -- Mon-@LAA (Wilson), Sun-@SEA (Noesi)
Luke Hochevar (KC) -- Mon-@DET (TBD), Sat-NYY (Kuroda)
Phil Hughes (NYY) -- Tue-BAL (Matusz), Sun-@KC (Mendoza)
Drew Hutchison (TOR) -- Tue-TEX (Feliz), Sun-@LAA (Williams)
Luis Mendoza (KC) -- Tue-@DET (Porcello), Sun-NYY (Hughes)
Charlie Morton (PIT) -- Tue-@STL (Wainwright), Sun-CIN (Arroyo)
Hector Noesi (SEA) -- Tue-@TB (Moore), Sun-MIN (Hendriks)
Chris Volstad (CHC) -- Tue-@CIN (Arroyo), Sun-LAD (Harang)
Jerome Williams (LAA) -- Tue-MIN (Liriano), Sun-TOR (Hutchison)



Pitching notes



• Expect big things from the Tampa Bay Rays' pitching staff, my Baseball Challenge pick for Week 4. The five current members of the Rays' rotation have combined for a .608 winning percentage, 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 209 career games (205 starts) at Tropicana Field, where the team will play all seven of its games. Four of those are against the Seattle Mariners, whose .656 team OPS ranks 23rd in the majors, and the other three are versus the Oakland Athletics, whose .591 OPS ranks dead last. Among other recommended BBC pitching staffs this week: St. Louis Cardinals (PIT-3, @HOU-3), Washington Nationals (ARI-3, PHI-3), Los Angeles Angels (MIN-3, TOR-4) and Boston Red Sox (OAK-3, BAL-3).
• Among the aforementioned two-start pitchers, Hammel's matchups -- and his career history against his opponents -- are the most challenging; he's a combined 1-4 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 20 career games (eight starts) versus the Red Sox and New York Yankees. There isn't much history regarding the matchups of pitchers Darvish, Milone, Beachy, Minor or Sale. Beachy has pitched at Coors; he surrendered six runs on nine hits, two of them home runs, in 4 2/3 innings there last July 19. These five are ranked accordingly.
• It's time to get Adam Wainwright back into your lineup, right in time for a pair of matchups versus the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros. He's coming off his best outing of the year -- one run on six hits in six innings, including seven strikeouts, on April 24 -- one in which he broke out more curveballs (30.4 percent of all thrown), his signature pitch. Wainwright will also be facing a Pirates team with a .594 collective OPS, not to mention one that hasn't scored more than five runs in a game yet this season; and then he'll head to Houston's Minute Maid Park, where he's 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in eight career games (four starts).
• Speaking of capitalizing upon favorable matchups against the Pirates -- even in road games at PNC Park -- take a look at these three Cincinnati Reds starters: Friday starter Johnny Cueto is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight career starts at PNC; Saturday starter Mat Latos has won both of his starts there with a 2.77 ERA and 1.08 WHIP; and Sunday starter Brandon Arroyo has a 2.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in eight starts at PNC since joining the Reds in 2006.
• James McDonald might be the two-start sleeper of the week. He's coming off his best start of the season, he has a 2.78 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through his first four starts, and he'll face the Atlanta Braves, against whom he has a 0.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five career games (three starts) and Reds, against whom he has a 3.06 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in eight career games (five starts).
• Two members of the American League East have outstanding matchups against a familiar foe: the Baltimore Orioles. Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova, who faces the Orioles on Wednesday, is 3-0 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five career starts against them. Meanwhile, Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester, who battles the O's on Friday, is 14-0 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 18 career starts against them. Lester's matchup might be the prime rebound opportunity he needs.


Streamer's delight



Among streaming starter -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer -- options for Week 4, here are my picks by day:
Monday, April 30: Randy Wolf at San Diego Padres
Tuesday, May 1: Felix Doubront versus Oakland Athletics
Wednesday, May 2: Carlos Zambrano at San Francisco Giants
Thursday, May 3: Jeff Niemann versus Seattle Mariners
Friday, May 4: Drew Smyly versus Chicago White Sox
Saturday, May 5: James McDonald versus Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, May 6: Bronson Arroyo at Pittsburgh Pirates
Past picksFriday, April 20, Jonathon Niese: QS, 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Saturday, April 21, Philip Humber: W, QS, 9 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
Sunday, April 22, Joe Blanton: QS, 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Monday, April 23, Jake Peavy: W, QS, 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Tuesday, April 24, Randy Wolf: W, QS, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
Wednesday, April 25, Trevor Cahill: 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Thursday, April 26, Rick Porcello: 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Week's total: 7 GS, 3 W (42.9%), 5 QS (71.4%), 48 IP, 34 H, 17 ER, 14 BB, 31 K, 3.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Season total: 22 GS, 10 W (45.9%), 14 QS (63.6%), 140 2/3 IP, 109 H, 45 ER, 46 BB, 88 K, 2.88 ERA, 1.10 WHIP


Hitting ratings




The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 35px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Team</center></th><th style="width: 12%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Games</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Overall
Rating</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Mon
4/30</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Tue
5/1</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Wed
5/2</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Thu
5/3</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Fri
5/4</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Sat
5/5</center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Sun
5/6</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYY
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYY
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYY
H: 8
L: 8
R: 8
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
H: 3
L: 2
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
H: 5
L: 5
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
H: 6
L: 6
R: 7
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
H: 8
L: 10
R: 3
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CLE
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CLE
H: 7
L: 7
R: 8
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CLE
H: 6
L: 10
R: 1
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
H: 6
L: 10
R: 3
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 3
L: 3
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHW
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHW
H: 2
L: 3
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHW
H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
H: 4
L: 7
R: 1
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 6
L: 4
R: 6
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">KC
H: 7
L: 9
R: 4
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">KC
H: 10
L: 9
R: 10
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">KC
H: 8
L: 4
R: 10
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHW
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHW
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHW
H: 2
L: 2
R: 3
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
4 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@DET
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYY
H: 9
L: 9
R: 9
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYY
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYY
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYY
H: 7
L: 9
R: 6
S: 2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
7 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 10
L: 6
R: 10
S: 9</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
H: 9
L: 6
R: 10
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
H: 7
L: 1
R: 9
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TOR
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TOR
H: 5
L: 3
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TOR
H: 8
L: 8
R: 8
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TOR
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 2
L: 3
R: 3
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SEA
H: 4
L: 2
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SEA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SEA
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
3 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 9
L: 7
R: 8
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
H: 10
L: 2
R: 10
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">BAL
H: 5
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@KC
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@KC
H: 4
L: 1
R: 5
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@KC
H: 7
L: 9
R: 4
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@KC
H: 10
L: 9
R: 10
S: 2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
0 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
H: 8
L: 10
R: 7
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@BOS
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
H: 1
L: 1
R: 3
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
H: 6
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
3 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 8
L: 10
R: 7
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
H: 6
L: 10
R: 4
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
H: 4
L: 3
R: 5
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TB
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
H: 9
L: 10
R: 7
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIN
H: 9
L: 6
R: 10
S: 5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
7 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 6
L: 9
R: 4
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">SEA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">SEA
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">SEA
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">SEA
H: 8
L: 9
R: 7
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
H: 5
L: 10
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">OAK
H: 2
L: 2
R: 2
S: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 6
L: 8
R: 6
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TOR
H: 8
L: 8
R: 8
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TOR
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@TOR
H: 3
L: 10
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CLE
H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CLE
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CLE
H: 2
L: 3
R: 2
S: 2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
3 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">TEX
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@LAA
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
0 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@MIA
H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
H: 4
L: 2
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYM
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYM
H: 3
L: 3
R: 2
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@NYM
H: 5
L: 8
R: 2
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
4 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PIT
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
H: 2
L: 2
R: 2
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
H: 9
L: 10
R: 6
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
H: 9
L: 10
R: 7
S: 1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
3 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 9
L: 8
R: 8
S: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@PHI
H: 4
L: 1
R: 7
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CIN
H: 6
L: 10
R: 2
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CIN
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CIN
H: 8
L: 8
R: 8
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
H: 7
L: 3
R: 8
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
H: 9
L: 10
R: 8
S: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 10</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHC
H: 8
L: 9
R: 7
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHC
H: 8
L: 2
R: 10
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHC
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@PIT
H: 5
L: 5
R: 4
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@PIT
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@PIT
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
6 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
H: 10
L: 10
R: 9
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">LAD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ATL
H: 3
L: 5
R: 2
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ATL
H: 6
L: 8
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ATL
H: 2
L: 2
R: 1
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYM
H: 5
L: 9
R: 3
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYM
H: 5
L: 2
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">NYM
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">STL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 5
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">STL
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">STL
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
H: 9
L: 10
R: 7
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
H: 6
L: 10
R: 1
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@COL
H: 7
L: 7
R: 8
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHC
H: 3
L: 1
R: 5
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHC
H: 5
L: 8
R: 4
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@CHC
H: 8
L: 9
R: 7
S: 6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
1 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 4
L: 3
R: 5
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
H: 7
L: 8
R: 5
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
H: 2
L: 6
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
H: 2
L: 2
R: 2
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 1
L: 1
R: 3
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
H: 4
L: 2
R: 6
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 2</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
H: 2
L: 2
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@SF
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
2 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
H: 7
L: 3
R: 8
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
1 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CHC
H: 5
L: 8
R: 4
S: 6</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@ATL
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@ATL
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@ATL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@WAS
H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">7 total
3 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@ATL
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@STL
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@STL
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@STL
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CIN
H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CIN
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">CIN
H: 5
L: 10
R: 1
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 7</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PIT
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PIT
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PIT
H: 3
L: 1
R: 4
S: 5</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">@HOU
H: 7
L: 3
R: 8
S: 3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 2
L: 2
R: 4
S: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
H: 2
L: 1
R: 4
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
H: 3
L: 5
R: 2
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
6 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 4
L: 5
R: 3
S: 8</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIA
H: 3
L: 3
R: 4
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">MIL
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center">H: 5
L: 3
R: 6
S: 3</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
H: 7
L: 1
R: 8
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">ARI
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 1</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
H: 4
L: 1
R: 7
S: 4</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center">PHI
H: 2
L: 2
R: 2
S: 4</td></tr></tbody></table>Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.





Hitting notes



• Ryan Zimmerman's health is a key topic heading into Week 4, but if he's cleared to play in time for the week, his matchups support him being worth keeping in your lineup. He's 8-for-17 (.471 AVG) with two home runs in his career against Arizona Diamondbacks starters Joe Saunders (his Wednesday opponent) and Ian Kennedy (Thursday), and he's a lifetime .455 hitter (10-for-22) with seven doubles and a home run versus the Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Kendrick (his Friday opponent).
• The New York Yankees face a familiar foe in the Baltimore Orioles; they have quite a track record of offensive success against that team. Toss in a favorable set of weekend matchups at Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium, and Yankees hitters should rank among your top choices on the hitting side. Among the less obvious choices: Russell Martin is a lifetime .308/.392/.462 hitter in 18 games against the Orioles, Nick Swisher is a .269/.380/.580 hitter -- the slugging percentage fueled by 24 home runs in 286 at-bats -- in 84 games against them, and Raul Ibanez is a .291/.338/.485 hitter in 235 career games at Kauffman Stadium.
Incidentally, that the Yankees face three left-handed starters in their seven games supports Andruw Jones' candidacy as a worthwhile one-week fill-in.
• The Atlanta Braves benefit from a weekend three-game series at Coors Field. Freddie Freeman has two home runs in four career games there, Chipper Jones is a .323/.421/.592 hitter in 56 career games and Martin Prado is a .333 hitter in 13 career games there. Jones in particular has a standout week's worth of matchups; incredibly, he's a lifetime .294/.415/.588 hitter against Tuesday opponent Cole Hamels and .538/.538/1.231 against Wednesday foe Roy Halladay.
• Albert Pujols' struggles continue, but considering his Los Angeles Angels have seven home games against weak competition, perhaps this is the week he'll break through. He has faced only three of his scheduled opponents; he's a combined 4-for-20 (.200 AVG) with zero home runs against the Minnesota Twins' Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano and the Toronto Blue Jays' Brandon Morrow. Pujols isn't the Angels player who stands out from a matchups perspective, however. That's Kendrys Morales, who is a lifetime .303/.350/.524 hitter in his home games, and .296/.353/.533 versus right-handers (the Angels face six righty starters).

 

[HacheMan]

Top 12 for '12: Arenado up to No. 2

By Kevin Goldstein | Baseball Prospectus


Note: The top 12 fantasy prospects (players currently in the minor leagues) for 2012 are below. These rankings are a bit different from other prospect rankings; these are strictly for 2012 fantasy purposes. So not only do talent and recent performance play a role in the rankings, but potential paths to the big leagues also factor in. In addition, all young players in the minors are eligible, including those in "prospect purgatory," those who have exceeded rookie status but are still young and unproven commodities.

<offer></offer>1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (Last week's rank: 1)


Last week's stats (at Triple-A Salt Lake): 8-for-17 (.471), 6 RBIs, 2 SB
Season totals: .403-1-13, 6 SB in 20 games
Update: Um, Angels, you are 6-13 in a year with high expectations. Mike Trout is awesome and can help turn things around immediately. We know it's going to require a difficult decision involving veterans who are owed big money, but it's all about winning, right?
What he can do: Trout would help the Angels and your fantasy team immediately. He can hit, he can run and he has a bit of pop. Unless your league heavily values hit-by-pitch and double-play balls, this is your guy. Editor's note: Trout was called up to the Angels late Friday, and could play this weekend versus the Indians.


2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 6)

Last week's stats (at Double-A Tulsa): 7-for-25 (.280), 4 RBIs
Season totals: .342-1-13 in 20 games
Update: Remember when Chris Nelson looked great at the plate and was flirting with a .300 average? Well, that time has officially passed, and now the Rockies don't have a competent third baseman. Well, actually they do. His last name is Arenado, and he just keeps raking at Double-A.
What he can do: Arenado's sublime ability to make contact, along with playing in Coors Field, should lead to a good batting average right away, although for now his power could be limited to the doubles category.

3. Travis Snider, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (Last week's rank: 2)


Last week's stats (at Triple-A Las Vegas): 8-for-24 (.333), HR, 5 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .400-4-23, 2 SBs in 19 games
Update: While Eric Thames' bat has come alive a bit, what you are seeing now is his peak value, and his defense has been far from stellar. It's time to fish or cut bait with Snider, whom scouts love, even though he has never quite conquered big league pitching. Could now be the time? Update: Snider was removed from Thursday night's game because of a wrist strain. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it could delay things.
What he can do: Hit for average, get on base and hit for power. Well, at least that's what he has always done in the minor leagues. At some point, it has to translate, right?

4. Pat Corbin, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week: unranked)


Last week's stats (at Double-A Mobile): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-0, 1.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27 IP, 25 K's
Update: With Daniel Hudson on the disabled list and Josh Collmenter quickly turning back into a pumpkin, the D-backs have to be close to pulling from their impressive minor league pitching depth. Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs are better prospects, but Corbin might be the most big league-ready at this time.
What he can do: Corbin is not a future star, but he throws strikes and keeps hitters off balance with a very good changeup. He'd likely deliver a good number of quality starts, but few dominating ones.

5. Matt LaPorta, 1B, Cleveland Indians (Last week: unranked)


Last week's stats (at Triple-A Columbus): 9-for-16 (.563), HR, 5 RBIs
Season totals: .364-5-12 in 17 games
Update: LaPorta was the big prize in the CC Sabathia trade four years ago, but he has never lived up to expectations. Well, all of a sudden, he's crushing Triple-A pitching just like he has in the past, and Casey Kotchman's poor start could lead to another chance for him.
What he can do: If you have a taste for risk, LaPorta could be an interesting play. He was a first-round pick and former stud prospect for a reason, but he's just as likely to flame out again as he is to start hitting.

6. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets (Last week: unranked)

Last week's stats (at Triple-A Buffalo): 13 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 15 K's
Season totals: 2-1, 4.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 26 IP, 24 K's
Update: Consider this a pre-emptive call. Harvey likely won't be called up immediately, but he's in position to take advantage of Mike Pelfrey (elbow) hitting the shelf for what looks like an extended period of time. After a slow start at Triple-A, he's suddenly missing plenty of bats.
What he can do: The Mets likely want Harvey to settle in at Triple-A before calling him up, but note that Chris Schwinden is merely a placeholder. Upon his call-up, Harvey could rack up strikeouts immediately with both his fastball and slider, but when it comes to command and control, he's not quite there yet.

7. Danny Hultzen, SP, Seattle Mariners (Last week: unranked)


Last week's stats (at Double-A Jackson): 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-2, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 21 2/3 IP, 26 K's
Update: The Mariners have the best minor league rotation in the game at Double-A Jackson. Meanwhile, Kevin Millwood looks old, and Hector Noesi looks better suited for bullpen work. One of the reasons Hultzen was the No. 2 pick in the 2011 draft was because he was the most big league-ready player on the board, and he has been pitching like it of late.
What he can do: Hultzen has more polish than stuff, with the ceiling of a No. 3 starter. He could need an adjustment period that involves getting knocked around a little while he learns how to use his stuff in the big leagues, but his stinginess when it comes to walks will help his cause.

8. Mark Melancon, RP, Boston Red Sox (Last week: unranked)


Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's
Season totals (in minors): 2-2, SV, 2.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 3 1/3 IP, 6 K's
Update: Don't laugh. Yes, Melancon was awful with Boston, but this is a guy who was closing games in the big leagues last year, and he seems to have already found his stuff again in Pawtucket. He'll be back in Beantown soon.
What he can do: While it will take him awhile to earn ninth-inning trust again, Melancon should rack up plenty of strikeouts in a middle-innings role, with a good offense providing an excellent opportunity for vulture wins.

9. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 10)


Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 8-for-20 (.400), 4 HR, 11 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .377-9-27, 3 SB in 20 games
Update: Middlebrooks just keeps hitting. While Kevin Youkilis heating up is great news for the Red Sox, it's bad news for Middlebrooks, who seems stuck in the International League for the time being.
What he can do: Middlebrooks began the year as a pretty good third-base prospect, and now he's one of the best in baseball. But who knows when he will arrive?

10. Chris Carter, 1B/DH, Oakland Athletics (Last week: unranked)


Last week's stats (at Triple-A Sacramento): 9-for-25 (.360), 3 HR, 12 RBIs
Season totals: .291-4-19 in 19 games
Update: Carter has had plenty of big league opportunities and failed them all, but right-handed power often takes a long time to develop. A's starting first baseman Daric Barton seems to be lost in the tall weeds at this point, and none of the team's DHs are hitting.
What he can do: Carter has mammoth raw power, but it comes at a price, as he'll always rack up high strikeout totals that will keep his batting average down. You should not be surprised to learn that he has little speed.

11. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves (Last week: unranked)


Last week's stats (at Double-A Mississippi): 10-for-28 (.357), 9 RBIs
Season totals: .299-0-10, 3 SB in 16 games
Update: Simmons battled with Tyler Pastornicky right to the very end of spring training this year, but ultimately the Braves stuck to their plan and sent Simmons down. However, Pastornicky has failed to impress at the plate, and Simmons' ability to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense could get him a look should the Braves remain competitive in the National League East. Simmons won't exactly be called up soon, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
What he can do: Simmons has much more value in sim leagues due to his top-notch glove work, but he does have the speed to steal bases.

12. Mike Olt, 3B, Texas Rangers (Last week: unranked)

Last week's stats (at Double-A Frisco): 7-for-28 (.250), 2 HR, 4 RBIs
Season totals: .243-5-10 in 19 games
Update: While there isn't much of a need to change anything with the Rangers these days, one point of weakness has been their production at first base, with Mitch Moreland hitting just .179. A third baseman by trade (and a plus one defensively), Olt has the offensive profile to fit either corner-infield spot and could be an internal answer if something doesn't arrive via the trade market in July.
What he can do: Olt has plenty of power and patience, but he could struggle to hit for average right away. Runs and RBIs could come in bunches simply by his being in the Rangers' explosive lineup.

Falling out of the ranks


3. (last week's ranking) Garrett Richards, SP, Angels (at Triple-A Salt Lake): Richards certainly has done nothing wrong, but Jerome Williams has pitched well enough of late to hold on to the Angels' fifth-starter job.
4. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians (at Triple-A Columbus): Chisenhall has slowed down at Triple-A, while Indians third baseman Jack Hannahan has heated up.
5. Josh Fields, 3B, Dodgers (at Triple-A Albuquerque): Juan Uribe's wrist injury was not as serious as originally thought.
7. Brad Peacock, SP, Athletics (at Triple-A Sacramento): Jarrod Parker got the first call in Oakland and pitched well, leaving Peacock still waiting his turn.
8. Welington Castillo, C, Cubs (at Triple-A Iowa): Geovany Soto is not hitting, which doesn't help his trade value, and benching him would hurt it even more.
9. Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (at Triple-A Round Rock): He's still hitting (.329 batting average, three home runs, five stolen bases), but there's no need to rock the boat on a team as good as Texas.
11. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves (at Triple-A Gwinnett): Just when he seemed to be putting things together, he didn't get out of the fifth inning Wednesday while walking four and striking out just one batter.
12. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (at Triple-A Syracuse): He finally hit his first home run Sunday, but it's going to take an extended hot streak at this point for the Nats to call on the 19-year-old phenom. Editor's note: Harper will be recalled on Saturday to replace the injured Ryan Zimmerman on the Nats' roster.


Bonus round


While it's likely none of these players will see the big leagues in 2012, you keeper-league owners should consider them good candidates for big stolen-base totals down the road.
Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds: The fastest player in the minors stole 11 bases in the past week alone and has 23 overall in 20 games while batting .377 for High-A Bakersfield.
Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Nationals: He has a line-drive bat but will need to improve his on-base skills to be useful. What he can do is run, as evidenced by his 16 stolen bases in 20 games for Double-A Harrisburg, while batting a lofty .356.
Delino DeShields, 2B, Astros: His father stole 463 bases in the big leagues, and this 2010 first-round pick has made some strides in his second season at Low-A Lexington, batting .266 with 11 stolen bases in 11 attempts.

 

[HacheMan]

Careful With Carl
Carl Crawford's quest for redemption will have to wait a while, as the Red Sox announced Thursday evening that the high-priced outfielder was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow.

The team said that a "conservative treatment protocol was recommended," so Crawford will try the rehab route as opposed to something like Tommy John surgery. However, he was given a platelet rich plasma (PRP) injection and will cease baseball activities indefinitely.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggested early Thursday evening that Crawford will miss three months, but a team source told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald that they expect him back by the All-Star break. A return in June hasn't been ruled out, either, but we're probably looking at something around two months if all goes well.

The Red Sox are already missing Jacoby Ellsbury until at least June due to a subluxed right shoulder, so Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney and the newly-acquired Zimmerman Still In Limbo

The Nationals haven't placed Ryan Zimmerman on the disabled list yet, but his return doesn't exactly appear imminent.

Tim Powers of MLB.com reports that Zimmerman attempted to take some swings Thursday, but felt the same pain in the AC joint of his right shoulder. He's now expected to visit a doctor in Los Angeles on Friday, likely to receive another cortisone shot.

If Zimmerman is given the shot, the Nationals would give him a couple days of rest to see how the shoulder responds, so the best-case scenario is that he misses the rest of the weekend and comes back early next week. However, if the shoulder fails to respond to treatment, he could be headed for a stint on the disabled list backdated to April 21.

Chad Tracy filled in at third base in Thursday's loss to the Padres, but Mark DeRosa and Steve Lombardozzi should also see some playing time while Zimmerman is out. As I wrote in Waiver Wired Humber Not So Perfect

After delivering a perfect game against the Mariners on Saturday, Humber was handed the worst beating of his major league career Thursday against the Red Sox. Baseball sure works in mysterious ways, huh?

Humber allowed a career-high nine runs on eight hits (including three home runs) and three walks over over five innings as part of a 10-3 loss. The major damage came courtesy of a grand slam by Kevin Youkilis and a pair of homers by Jarrod Saltalamacchia. The nine earned runs set a new record for runs allowed by a pitcher in their first start following a perfect game, topping the eight given up by Catfish Hunter in 1968.

It's not unusual to see an ownership spike in fantasy leagues after someone throws a no-hitter or a perfect game, but it's important to remember that there is some degree of luck involved with the eventual outcome. As such, it's generally a bad idea to make decisions based one exceptionally good start or one exceptionally bad start. There's little doubt that Humber can be a useful pitcher for the White Sox and in AL-only formats, but calling him mixed league material was always a bit of a stretch. Hopefully you sold high or didn't buy at all.

NL Quick Hits: Mike Pelfrey will visit Dr. James Andrews on Friday and is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery … Heath Bell blew his third save of the season Thursday by allowing two runs on four walks and one hit in a loss to the Mets … Sean Marshall blew his first save of the season Thursday against the Giants by giving up a go-ahead three-run homer to Angel Pagan … Kirk Nieuwenhuis went 3-for-5 with a walk off RBI single in Thursday's win over the Marlins and is now batting .333 (22-for-60) over his first 18 games in the majors … Allen Craig (knee) went 2-for-5 as the DH on Thursday in his first rehab game with Triple-A Memphis and remains on track to join the Cardinals at some point next week … Edwin Jackson tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings Thursday night against the Padres, but was handed a tough luck no-decision … Freddy Sanchez had another setback while rehabbing his surgically-repaired shoulder in the minors … Nick Masset remains sidelined indefinitely after an MRI showed that the strain in the capsule muscle of his right shoulder is not fully healed … The Dodgers are expected to promote prospect right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from Double-A Chattanooga on Friday … Chris Schwinden will take Mike Pelfrey's place in the starting rotation Friday against the Rockies, but he can be ignored in fantasy leagues … John Lannan has a 6.53 ERA over his first four starts with Triple-A Syracuse …

AL Quick Hits: Albert Pujols singled Thursday to break an 0-for-21 hitless streak … Shin-Soo Choo missed his second straight game Thursday due to left hamstring soreness … Danny Duffy will be skipped in the rotation this week due to left elbow tightness, but it's not considered serious … Jordan Walden blew his first save of the season Thursday against the Rays by giving up a two-run walk off homer to Brandon Allen … The Tigers released Brandon Inge on Thursday and will call up Brad Eldred to replace him on the active roster … Brian Matusz had his best start of the season Thursday against the Blue Jays, allowing two unearned runs over six innings while striking out three and walking a pair … Adam Jones hit his sixth homer of the season in a win over the Blue Jays ... Cody Ross was held out of Thursday's lineup to rest a sore left knee, but should return Friday … Dustin McGowan has been shut down for at least the next two weeks due to right shoulder inflammation … Nolan Reimold (neck) singled in his return to the lineup Thursday … Zach Britton (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Friday for the first time since receiving platelet rich plasma (PRP) treatment … Jesse Crain (oblique) threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session Thursday, but is likely to miss a few more days … Orioles' right-hander Luis Ayala notched a save in Thursday's win over the Blue Jays, but closer Jim Johnson (flu) could be released from the hospital Friday morning …The Red Sox are expected to add left-hander Rich Hill (elbow) to their bullpen this weekend … Robert Andino is expected to return from the paternity leave list Friday ... Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that minor league outfielder Michael Taylor has been summoned from Triple-A Sacramento to join the team in Baltimore. He could take Coco Crisp's spot on the roster if he continues to have difficulties with an inner-ear infection …

 

[HacheMan]

The Tampa Two
The Rays are off to a strong start in the AL East, and they're hoping to stay near the top of the standings on the shoulders of a rotation that includes two of the league's best young starters: 2011 Rookie of the Year winner Jeremy Hellickson and 2012 Rookie of the Year contender Matt Moore.

The 25-year-old Hellickson has picked up right where he left off after a sensational debut, winning three of his first four starts with a 2.84 ERA. His 14/12 K/BB ratio is a bit ugly, but that figures to improve going forward and Hellboy finished with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last year despite a decidedly ho-hum 117/72 K/BB ratio in 189 innings.

Moore, who made a name for himself last year with his dominant postseason performance as a 22-year-old, has gotten off to a bit of a rockier start in his first full big-league campaign. In his first three turns, the southpaw totaled more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) while stumbling to a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He showed signs of turning things around Thursday against the Angels, allowing just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings while striking out six, but he remains winless and continues to struggle with high pitch counts.

Both young hurlers are scheduled to take the mound twice in the upcoming week, with match-ups at home against the Mariners and A's that portend plenty of success.

Going Twice…

American League

Strong Plays

Jeremy Hellickson: SEA (Hernandez), OAK (Colon)
Matt Moore: SEA (Noesi), OAK (Milone)
Felix Hernandez: @TB (Hellickson), MIN (Blackburn)
Hiroki Kuroda: BAL (Hammel), @KC (Hochevar)
C.J. Wilson: MIN (Hendriks), TOR (Drabek)
Chris Sale: CLE (Tomlin), @DET (Below)
Yu Darvish: @TOR (Drabek), @CLE (Tomlin)

Decent Plays

Kyle Drabek: TEX (Darvish), @LAA (Wilson)
Tommy Milone: @BOS (Buccholz), @TB (Moore)
Phil Hughes: BAL (Matusz), KC (Mendoza)
Liam Hendriks: @LAA (Wilson), @SEA (Noesi)
Jerome Williams: MIN (Liriano), TOR (Hutchison)
Duane Below: KC (Hochevar), CWS (Sale)
Jason Hammel: @NYY (Kuroda), @BOS (Buchholz)

At Your Own Risk

Drew Hutchison: TEX (Darvish), @LAA (Williams)
Hector Noesi: @TB (Moore), MIN (Hendriks)
Luke Hochevar: @DET (Below), NYY (Kuroda)
Luis Mendoza: @DET (Porcello), NYY (Hughes)
Josh Tomlin: @CWS (Sale), TEX (Darvish)
Clay Buchholz: OAK (Milone), BAL (Hammel)

National League

Strong Plays

Jordan Zimmermann: ARI (Cahill), PHI (Hamels)
Adam Wainwright: PIT (Morton), @HOU (Happ)
Matt Cain: MIA (Nolasco), MIL (Wolf)
Cole Hamels: @ATL (Beachy), @WAS (Zimmermann)
Vance Worley: CHC (Samardzija), @WAS (Gonzalez)
R.A. Dickey: @HOU (Happ), ARI (Cahill)
Mark Buehrle: ARI (Collmenter), @SD (Richard)
Brandon Beachy: PHI (Hamels), @COL (Nicasio)
Mike Minor: PIT (McDonald), @COL (Moyer)

Decent Plays

Joe Wieland: MIL (Wolf), MIA (Nolasco)
Charlie Morton: @STL (Wainwright), CIN (Arroyo)
James McDonald: @ATL (Minor), CIN (Latos)
Randy Wolf: @SD (Wieland), @SF (Cain)
Ricky Nolasco: @SF (Cain), @SD (Wieland)
Aaron Harang: @COL (Nicasio), @CHC (Volstad)
J.A. Happ: NYM (Dickey), STL (Wainwright)
Juan Nicasio: LAD (Harang), ATL (Beachy)
Bronson Arroyo: CHC (Volstad), @PIT (Morton)
Jeff Samardzija: @PHI (Worley), LAD (Capuano)
Trevor Cahill: @WAS (Zimmermann), @NYM (Dickey)

At Your Own Risk

Chris Volstad: @CIN (Arroyo), LAD (Harang)
Streamer City

The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Thursday, 5/3: Jeff Niemann vs. SEA
The righty has posted a 16/5 K/BB ratio and 0.98 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings over his first three starts. He's a great pickup for this favorable home tilt.

Friday, 5/4: Jason Vargas vs. MIN
The Twins have a 685 OPS against LHP and a 634 OPS on the road.

Friday, 5/4: Drew Smyly vs. CWS
Smyly is still looking for that first MLB win, but it should come soon with the numbers he's putting up.

National League

Wednesday, 5/2: Carlos Zambrano @ SF
Big Z is flashing great improved command early on. He's also allowed only 10 hits over 19 innings in his first three starts.

Thursday, 5/3: Randall Delgado vs. PHI
Philly's offense has struggled this year, and the promising rookie Delgado will look to take advantage.

Thursday, 5/3: Erik Bedard @ STL
Bedard has been the victim of terrible run support in Pittsburgh, as his 2.63 ERA has resulted in an 0-4 record. His luck is bound to turn around at some point.

Total Games

American League

6: BAL, BOS, CLE, CWS, DET, MIN, OAK, TEX
7: KC, LAA, NYY, SEA, TB, TOR

National League

6: CIN, COL, HOU, LAD, MIL, NYM, SD, SF, STL, WAS
7: ARI, ATL, CHC, MIA, PHI, PIT

Lefty/Righty Breakdowns

American League

BAL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
BOS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CLE: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
CWS: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
DET: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
KC: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
LAA: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
MIN: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
NYY: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
OAK: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
SEA: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TB: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TEX: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TOR: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
ATL: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CHC: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CIN: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
COL: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
HOU: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
LAD: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
MIA: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
NYM: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
PHI: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
PIT: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SD: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SF: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
STL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
WAS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP

The Infirmary

You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page but here's the latest on a few prominent players who have been out of action:
Daniel Hudson: Out indefinitely (shoulder)
Jesse Crain: Out until early May (ribs)
Kyle Weiland: Out indefinitely (shoulder)
Matt Guerrier: Out until mid-May (back)
Mike Pelfrey: Out for the season (elbow)
Jason Bay: Out until mid-May (ribs)
Cliff Lee: Out until late May (ribs)
Aubrey Huff: Out indefinitely (anxiety)
Sergio Santos: Out indefinitely (shoulder)
Ryan Zimmerman: Out indefinitely (shoulder)

 

[HacheMan]

Should you rush to acquire Harper, Trout?

Eric Karabell

Fantasy owners are clearly a reactive bunch, so it's been no surprise that upon hearing/seeing the news that top MLB prospects Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were summoned to the majors this weekend, they're among the most-added players in ESPN leagues. Even me, the more cautious owner, would have to admit those in leagues as shallow as 10-teamers should be interested and not wait a week to add them. As of Sunday morning, Harper was up to 78.5 percent owned and Trout was at 51.9. Combined, they were owned in 10 percent of leagues Friday morning!


<offer></offer>Of course, I don't expect either Trout or Harper to be instant stars, despite their respective pedigrees, which kind of defines the term sell-high. There's always going to be someone in your redraft league -- in keeper or dynasty formats, I'm protecting these assets -- willing to overpay for the big name. Let's face it, Trout and Harper are really, really big names. Everyone who follows prospects, from Keith Law to Kevin Goldstein and former colleague Jason Grey a year ago, has raved about them.


Harper is 19, and it was surprising that the Washington Nationals called his name so early since the lefty-hitting slugger wasn't doing much in Triple-A Syracuse. Able colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft shared his thoughts on Harper on Friday, opening with the words "start up the hype machine." I concur. Dropping one of your bench players, hitter or pitcher, or someone with little upside, makes perfect sense. Dropping Jayson Werth or trading Albert Pujols for Harper and Kyle Lohse (he's 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA!) does not. You probably know that already, but I'm just making sure, because while I'm as curious as you are about Harper, I don't think he's a top-30 outfielder for 2012 despite flashing the skills in his Saturday night debut at Dodger Stadium, with a double, sacrifice fly and Rick Ankiel laser-like throw from left field.

Let's talk about Trout, though, because I think he has the better shot to succeed in 2012. Harper has more raw power, but it's raw and left-handed pitchers will eat him up initially. I wouldn't be surprised if he's back in the great city of Syracuse in a month, especially if Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Morse return. Trout is sticking around. If you've got one open roster spot to use on a free agent of this younger ilk, and you've decided to ignore the productive veteran types like Bryan LaHair, Denard Span and Brennan Boesch, Trout is the pick. He's still only 20, so not exactly a ton older than Harper, but his game appears more mature.


We have to be careful to avoid overrating Trout's Triple-A numbers at Salt Lake: Everyone hits there. Remember Brandon Wood? What's he up to these days? The Bees as a team this season are hitting .318 with an .854 OPS in 22 games. It's awesome that Trout was hitting .403 there, but don't get too excited. He has to make big league adjustments, as well. Trout hit .220 over 123 at-bats for the Angels last season, but with five home runs and four stolen bases. He's almost ready to be a fantasy monster, someone who will look like Matt Kemp on occasion, and a 20-year-old on others. I'm hoping the Angels actually commit to him regularly; look what Brandon Belt is starting to do for the San Francisco Giants. Eventually, talent wins out.


Still, I can't call Trout a top-30 outfielder for 2012, either. I blogged about how badly the Angels needed him earlier this week, and was happily surprised he got the call. He's just better than their entire outfield right now, and deserves to play. The Angels claim he will play. But again, would it be a stunner if Trout is back in Salt Lake by June 1? Not at all. I think Trout will help fantasy owners with his speed more than anything else. He has a far better shot at 20 stolen bases than he does 20 home runs, but he might also hit .250 doing it. Trout doesn't need to play nearly that well to be an upgrade on Vernon Wells or Peter Bourjos (who I do like). If you combine their on-base percentages to .481, Matt Kemp has them beat!


Add Trout and Harper because the upside is great, but become aware of a few things: Each is likely to struggle initially because of their age and the fact major league pitching is going to literally throw them a few curves. Neither is guaranteed to put up usable statistics for shallow leagues in 2012. Each is terrific trade bait as soon as possible before they go into 3-for-20 slumps with 12 strikeouts. As for keeper/dynasty leagues, I'm fully prepared to use a bench spot on them, for in 2013 I see a scenario in which Trout and Harper are top-100 players. For now add them both, Trout first, and enjoy the show.

 

[HacheMan]

Freddy Got Demoted

It had been assumed that Freddy Garcia would likely be removed from the starting rotation when <a href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/player.asp?sport=MLB&id=2021">Following a 12.51 ERA, 2.20 WHIP and 25 hits allowed in his first 13 2/3 innings of the season, Garcia has been moved to the bullpen, making room for 25-year-old David Phelps in the rotation. Garcia provided the Yankees with a solid 3.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over nearly 150 innings last season, but the Yankees weren’t willing to wait on the 35-year-old veteran to turn it around after he stumbled out of the gate.



So what about Phelps? The former 14^th-round pick entered the season as the Yanks’ 21^st-ranked prospect, according to Baseball America, and instead of beginning the season in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre’s rotation as expected, he forced his way onto the roster with a 2.08 ERA and 14/4 K/BB ratio over 17 1/3 innings in spring training. His success has carried over into great early work out of the bullpen, as he boasts a 3.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 14/7 K/BB ratio over 17 2/3 frames.



While Phelps is worthy of being picked up in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues, there are a few reasons why fantasy owners don’t need to go overboard in bidding on him. He’s considered a back-end of the rotation talent without much upside, will likely be moved back to the bullpen once Pettitte is ready, and will be unable to go deep into games initially, thereby hurting his chances of picking up wins. <a href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/player.asp?sport=MLB&id=4091">Manager Kirk Gibson announced that the 26-year-old has been shifted to the bullpen after posting a 9.82 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in four starts. While Collmenter surprised with a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 154 1/3 innings last season, he’s never been a good bet to stick in the rotation over the long haul, as he relies on deception and needed to be pinpoint with his command in order to keep from getting knocked around.​

While most fantasy owners understandably wanted​

Trevor Bauer to take Collmenter’s spot in the rotation, the Snakes decided to go another way and give Patrick Corbin a shot. Corbin impressed in spring training with a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 20/8 K/BB ratio over 21 innings, and he’s a pretty decent prospect in his own right. Baseball America ranked the 22-year-old as the No. 9 prospect in a well-stocked D’Backs system, and Corbin was off to a fine start at Double-A Mobile, holding a 1.67 ERA and 25/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 innings.



Corbin will have to pitch well in order to receive multiple turns in the Arizona rotation, and even if he does hold his own, he’s likely to be booted once <a href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/player.asp?sport=MLB&id=5911">Brandon Inge was cut loose last week by the Tigers, an organization that he’s been in since they made him a second-round pick back in 1998. But, it didn’t take him long to find a job, as the A’s have scooped him up.



It’s a great landing spot for the 12-year-veteran, as the A’s have a huge hole at third base and Inge should receive plenty of playing time there right off the bat. He gives the A’s a steady glove at the hot corner, and he can also fill in at second base or behind the plate if needed.



That said, the soon-to-be 35-year-old is batting only .100/.100/.300 this season after a woeful .197/.265/.283 line last year, making him a dicey proposition for those even in AL-only leagues. Even if he can rediscover some of the pop that’s allowed him to slug 140 homers in his career, his fantasy appeal is limited.





National League Quick Hits: We could have a closer shakeup in La La Land soon. Kenley Jansen picked up his second save over the weekend Sunday even though Javy Guerra was supposed to be available after recovering from a foot injury. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly hasn’t officially made the switch to Jansen, but it might only be a matter of time, as he’s clearly outperformed Guerra to this point and is the more dominant reliever … Tim Hudson made his long-awaited debut Sunday, and he pitched well, holding the Pirates to two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings. Feel free to use him in mixed leagues … Wade Miley wants to stick in the Diamondbacks rotation. He’s been lights-out in his first two starts since moving in from the pen, allowing just one unearned run on only three hits over 12 1/3 innings. There’s not much upside, but he’s clearly worthy of a play in NL-only leagues … Giancarlo Stanton finally went deep Sunday, as he hit one over the boards for the first time in 73 plate appearances this season … Vladimir Guerrero will work out for the D’Backs in the Dominican Republic this week. If signed, he’ll be used in a reserve role … Jorge De La Rosa (elbow) will make his first rehab start Wednesday at High-A Modesto. He’ll likely rejoin the Rockies rotation in early June if all goes well … Chris Carpenter’s shoulder is feeling stronger, but he’s not expected back until June, at the earliest. … <a href="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/player.asp?sport=MLB&id=4484">American League Quick Hits: George Sherrill will undergo Tommy John surgery in early May. He’ll be 36 by the time he’s ready to pitch again and might have trouble finding a job … Albert Pujols went 0-for-4 with a strikeout Sunday and is batting just .216/.266/.295 with no homers with one game to play in April … Nick Swisher has been diagnosed with a low-grade left hamstring strain. He’s expected to avoid the DL but will need a few days of rest … Danny Duffy is good to go for Thursday’s start after being skipped over the last time out with elbow soreness. The 23-year-old left-hander has a 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 20/10 K/BB ratio through 17 1/3 innings this season and remains ownable in all fantasy formats … Tsuyoshi Wada is likely headed for Tommy John surgery before throwing a pitch for the Orioles, but their other Asian import is faring well, as Wei-Yin Chen hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of his first four starts. He should be owned in mixed formats … Jake Peavy finished April with a 1.67 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 33/5 K/BB ratio over 37 2/3 innings. He’s obviously still a huge health risk, but a big bounce-back year is looking possible. He could wind up being a big trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline … Duane Below, who has yet to allow a run in 12 relief innings this season, will start Monday against the Royals. It could be his lone start, as Doug Fister (abdomen) might be ready to regain his rotation spot soon … Josh Hamilton left Sunday’s game with a stiff back, but it’s not expected to be something that will force him to the DL … Johnny Damon is expected to be added to the Indians’ roster on Tuesday. He’ll function as a part-time left fielder and DH.​