MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Ten prospects/rookies on the rise

By Kevin Goldstein | Baseball Prospectus


When my initial Top 100 fantasy prospects for 2012 was published on March 1, it was missing one key element: spring training games. Games are played, injuries happen, young players impress … so here are 10 rookies who have seen their fantasy stock jump since early March.

Matt Carpenter, IF/OF, Cardinals

Carpenter seemed bound for a repeat performance at Triple-A entering the spring, but he earned an Opening Day roster spot not only by hitting .357/.438/.661 in exhibition play, but also by showing some position versatility, playing both infield and outfield corners. With starters at those positions that include David Freese, Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran, there should be plenty of at-bats available for Carpenter, and you know what he does? [Snap!] He gets on base.

<offer></offer>Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers


How can the player who ranked No. 2 on this list actually be better? By blowing away scouts with his stuff and striking out 21 batters over 15 spring innings. Yes, there were issues with his command and control at times, but one could argue that no pitcher right now can match the movement Darvish gets on his power arsenal, and his acclimation to big league hitting could take less time than initially expected. I wouldn't be surprised if he's spending All-Star weekend in Kansas City.

Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox


Doubront earned the No. 4 starter job in the Red Sox rotation, which says as much about Boston's sudden lack of pitching depth than Doubront's talent. He had two good outings this spring, and two bad, and it's fair to expect a similar type of run in the big leagues. He has good stuff but has always been inconsistent, and his stock is up really only because of his major league starting opportunity and the ability to pick up some cheap wins thanks to a powerful lineup.

Eduardo Escobar, 3B, White Sox


Coming off a disappointing 2011 season, Escobar seemed headed for a return engagement at Triple-A Charlotte. Instead, he was one of the buzz players in camp, hitting .377 while showing off his outstanding defense. He has made the White Sox as a utility player, but with second baseman Gordon Beckham entering the third year of his "what-the-heck-happened-to-this-guy?" phase and Brent Morel trying to prove that last year's September surge was for real (not the five months before it), there could be opportunity for Escobar to grab at-bats, rack up some positional eligibility and produce for fantasy owners.

Freddy Galvis, IF, Phillies


Often prospects get their first opportunities as a result of an unfortunate injury rather than pure talent or performance, and Galvis heads that pack by taking over for Chase Utley at second base for the Phils. While Utley is tentatively set to be out for only a month or so, there is no worse injury than one with no definitive timetable, and Galvis could end up with significant big league playing time in 2012. For fantasy purposes, the only positive for Galvis is his speed; with full-time at-bats, the 22-year-old Venezuelan could swipe 20-plus bases.

Stephen Lombardozzi, IF/OF, Nationals


Lombardozzi is another player who has increased his real-world value by proving to his manager (Davey Johnson) that he can play multiple infield and outfield positions, including shortstop. In leagues with looser position requirements, this increases his fantasy value as well, as does the fact that the Nats could open the season with several players banged up. While he doesn't offer much beyond a line-drive bat, he should be able to hit for a decent average right away.

Jordan Pacheco, 3B, Rockies


When the Rockies released Casey Blake, on the surface it looked like just more clearing of the way for the team's top hitting prospect, Nolan Arenado. However, Arenado will begin the year at Double-A Tulsa, so the immediate reward of playing time will be reaped by Pacheco, who has gone from backup catcher to everyday third baseman, at least temporarily. Every day at-bats plus Coors Field tends to equal instant fantasy value, although Pacheco is more of a batting-average hitter than a slugger.

Chris Parmelee, 1B, Twins


A former first-round pick who was all but off the prospect radar, Parmelee hit .355/.443/.592 in his big league debut last September, and with Justin Morneau limited to DH duties, Parmelee is suddenly the Twins' regular first baseman. His stock is up solely on playing time, as he will be below average among first basemen in nearly every fantasy category. But with 500-plus at-bats, it's nearly impossible not to score and drive in some runs.

Wilin Rosario, C, Rockies


The second domino of the Arenado/Pacheco shuffle has Rosario beginning the season in the big leagues as a backup to Ramon Hernandez. This is a bit surprising; top prospects normally don't get bench jobs because of the limited playing time. But Rosario could get more than most, as Hernandez is rarely the pinnacle of health. Even in a somewhat limited role, Rosario could reach double digits in home runs, and there's a chance he simply steps up and grabs the starting job by the second half of the season anyway.

Drew Smyly, SP, Tigers


Smyly, a second-round pick in the 2010 draft, is the official winner of the battle for the fifth-starter job in Detroit. The Tigers have deemed Smyly, who posted a 2.07 ERA combined between high-A and Double-A in 2011 and limited opposing batters to just 11 hits in 18 innings this spring, ready to handle a big league rotation job. He's far more dependent on location and keeping hitters off-balance than pure stuff, but he has the ability to go six innings and keep his team in the game every time out, which could lead to plenty of wins in Detroit.

 

[HacheMan]

Farnsworth, Andrew Bailey injury reaction

Eric Karabell


Just like that, two American League East teams have lost their closers to injury.

I blogged about the unfortunate (but hardly unexpected) injury situation with Boston Red Sox right-hander Andrew Bailey on Tuesday; now comes the news that Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Kyle Farnsworth is likely to start the season on the shelf.


<offer>Last season, Farnsworth, then a well-traveled veteran of 12 years and 27 career saves, was terrific. He saved 25 games with a 2.18 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP, and finished 13th among closers on the Player Rater. I don't think it was a fluke, either. That said, I don't think manager Joe Maddon is crying about losing him. For years Maddon has managed to coax inspiring performances from surprising pitchers, realizing that relief pitchers are eminently replaceable and rarely consistent. Things change all the time. In fact, in 2006, Maddon's top save option had just 10 saves (Tyler Walker). In 2007, veteran Al Reyes saved 26 games, and was barely heard from again. Even when the team became good in 2008, and for years since, look at its primary closers: an old, bad Troy Percival, with help from Dan Wheeler (2008), lefty J.P. Howell and a committee (2009), one brilliant season from Rafael Soriano (2010), who the Rays had no intention of keeping, and then Farnsworth last year.</offer>
Farnsworth is likely to miss April and perhaps much more because of a sore elbow, and right-hander Joel Peralta is the obvious fill-in choice. Farnsworth was a bit more valuable than Peralta using Baseball Reference's WAR (wins above replacement) statistic last season, but Peralta, well-traveled and a seemingly ordinary veteran himself, tossed more innings and posted a 0.91 WHIP. He's prone to fly balls and thus will allow home runs, but his strikeout rate is legit, and he saved six games in 2011, four in a dominant September, while leading the team with 19 holds.
Also at Maddon's disposal is former Tigers/Angels closer and odd free-agent signing Fernando Rodney, recovered lefty Howell, youngster Jake McGee, who most people thought would close coming out of spring training a year ago, and deposed starter Wade Davis. Former Mariner Josh Lueke, acquired in the John Jaso trade, probably throws consistently harder than any of these Rays, and he should get the call to the big leagues soon.Simply put, I think Peralta is this year's Farnsworth; look for 30 saves and terrific overall numbers. I don't think Maddon wants a committee, and I don't think he feels any loyalty to give the job back to Farnsworth. For now, we don't know if Farnsworth misses two weeks, two months or eventually needs Tommy John surgery, but judging by Maddon's history of choosing ninth-inning options, and how the Rays are able to get their relievers to overachieve, which bodes well for the erratic Rodney, I'd still take Peralta over Farnsworth in fantasy, and not bother with the experienced Rodney. I say Peralta keeps the job, with occasional help from Howell against lefties.

As for the Red Sox, things have certainly changed in the 24 hours since I wrote about Bailey's thumb injury. First of all, it was announced that Bailey needs surgery, and instead of missing a few weeks, we're not likely to see the oft-injured closer until at least the All-Star break.
Of course, after I've been writing and saying all along that Mark Melancon will lead the Red Sox in saves, new Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine has thrown us all the proverbial curveball in naming Alfredo Aceves as his new closer. Why would Valentine do this, you might wonder? Melancon was a perfectly suitable closer last season in Houston, and Aceves is an older right-hander with four career saves in four seasons and literally no minor league experience in the role. Well, I think Valentine made the right choice. Experience at closer is overrated, and Aceves is a better pitcher. Yes, the Red Sox need rotation help, but Aceves struggled in that role last year, posting a 5.14 ERA in four starts in 2011. As a reliever, often used for multiple innings, his ERA was an excellent 2.03, and his hit and strikeout rates were superior.

Getting back to Melancon, I'm often asked how I make judgments on closer roles, and the truth is each situation is different. Each manager is different, as are many of the players in terms of skills, health, makeup, you name it. Boston's situation is not the same. Valentine made his choice, and while he could change his mind, he's likely bowled over by the relief work Aceves produced this spring. Don't look at Aceves' overall spring statistics; he got pounded in one of his starts for nine runs. Otherwise, he was dominant, just like last season in relief.Go add Aceves. He very well could save 30 games, with Melancon pitching an effective 70 innings as his setup man. What happens to Bailey? Well, I honestly wouldn't wait to find out in ESPN's 10- or 12-team leagues. Let him go. He's going to be out a long time, at least half the season. I always fill my DL slot with somebody, but long-term it's rarely a closer, especially one as brittle as Bailey. There's no guarantee he'll get any saves this season. Aceves could be awesome, and by July Daniel Bard could be in the picture. Heck, Bard could be in the picture next week. Plus, the Red Sox could trade for one of the many available experienced closers, such as Joel Hanrahan.
Yes, you drafted Bailey last week and it stinks he's hurt, but move on. Use your DL slot for upside hitters such as Chase Utley or aces like Chris Carpenter.

 

[HacheMan]

It's Baseball Season, Baby

The 2012 regular season technically got underway last week when the Athletics and Mariners played two games at Japan’s Tokyo Dome. But Major League Baseball barely even publicized that series (for reasons unknown) and Wednesday's game in Miami between the Cardinals and Marlins is still being labeled as “Opening Night.”

So ... well ... happy baseball season!



Or happy belated baseball season!



You pick.


This is the first MLB Daily Dose of 2012. We’ll run a column like it every weekday, with the hope that it provides Rotoworld readers with all the pertinent news and useful analysis you’ve come to expect from this site. If you want to see a topic covered in a Dose or are looking for a little fantasy advice, hit us up on Twitter, where the Rotoworld Baseball writing team is active and willing to help. Oh, and hilarious. We’re all absolutely hilarious.

My name is Drew Silva and I can be found at @drewsilv.
Pat Daugherty (@RotoPat) will be writing the Dose on Thursdays.
Ryan Boyer (@RyanPBoyer) has Fridays and Mondays.
And D.J. Short (@djshort) will be your man every Tuesday.

You can also follow Rotoworld’s executive editor Matthew Pouliot (@matthewpouliot) who often provides insight on changes being made to the rankings found in our award-winning Draft Guide and Season Pass.

It’s going to be a great year. Hopefully the best ever. And we’re glad you’ve found us.

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Worst Case Scenario For Boston's Bailey




Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey was diagnosed Tuesday with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb and will undergo reconstructive surgery at the Cleveland Clinic on Wednesday. Early estimates had him missing 3-4 months, but Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says it's possible that his recovery could drag into September.



It's a pie-in-the-face moment for the Red Sox, who took a chance this winter on the injury-prone former A's closer, acquiring him as part of a five-player trade. He's been a superb reliever when healthy, but Bailey always had trouble avoiding the disabled list during his time in Oakland and now his first year in Boston is looking like a definite bust.



The Red Sox haven't announced a replacement for him in the ninth inning, choosing to wait until their regular-season opener draws closer. So we're left guessing whether it's going to be Mark Melancon, who saved 20 games last year in Houston, or Alfredo Aceves, who may be owed a favor for being dropped from the rotation mix.



Melancon is the better fit because he has experience in the ninth inning and because Aceves is more useful as a multi-inning reliever. But Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine is as unpredictable as it gets and could go in any direction (though returning Daniel Bard to the bullpen has, mercifully, been ruled out). Keep it tuned to our player news page and we'll try to sort this thing out together. Whichever pitcher eventually gets the nod will hold a considerable amount of fantasy value on what looks to be a dynamite Red Sox team.



UPDATE: It's



Just last week, Washington manager Davey Johnson told reporters that southpaw John Lannan was going to handle the fifth spot in the team's season-opening starting rotation while Chien-Ming Wang recovered from his severely-strained left hamstring. But Johnson flipped that script on Tuesday evening, naming Ross Detwiler as Wang's fill-in while announcing that Lannan had been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.



Lannan has started on Opening Day twice in his Natoinals career and posted a cool 3.70 ERA in 184 2/3 innings last year. He's also owed a $5 million salary in 2012, making him the highest-paid player in baseball history to be sent to the minor leagues before the end of spring training.



But this shouldn't necessarily be taken as bad news. At least, not for Nationals fans. It's a new era in D.C., where league-average is no longer good enough. Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Detwiler represent a significant upgrade over any collection of starters the Nats have fielded in the past. Which is why they're drawing quite a bit of buzz as a potential Wild Card winner.



Detwiler, 26, posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 66 major-league innings last season while functioning as both a starter and reliever. The former sixth overall pick does not possess swing-and-miss stuff -- his career K/9 in the majors is a weak 5.3 -- but Nationals Park is quite pitcher-friendly and he could make for a decent streaming option in deeper mixed leagues on days (or weeks) when his matchup looks favorable.





National League Quick Hits: Brewers slugger Corey Hart went 2-for-3 with a run scored Tuesday in his first game back from knee surgery and has been cleared for the start of the regular season ... Chipper Jones is aiming to return from knee surgery before the Braves' home opener on April 13 ... Nationals closer Drew Storen was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with a sore elbow but should be ready by mid-April ... Troy Tulowitzki (elbow) has recovered swiftly from Ubaldo Jimenez's beanball and should be fine for Opening Day ... Michael Morse landed on the disabled list Tuesday with a strained right lat but should be ready as soon as he's eligible ... The Reds claimed reliever Alfredo Simon off waivers from the Orioles ... Daniel Descalso will start at second base over Tyler Greene for the Cardinals on Opening Night ... Astros center fielder Jordan Schafer has been cleared for Opening Day after missing a couple of weeks with a sprained hand ... The Nationals placed Rick Ankiel on the disabled list with a quad injury but he is expected to be cleared for the Nationals' home opener on April 12 ... Even after signing Joey Votto to a whopping 10-year, $225 million deal, the Reds are still trying to lock up Brandon Phillips ... The Braves signed Chad Durbin to a one-year contract ... Jed Lowrie (thumb) may have to open the season on the disabled list ... The Mets are confident that closer Frank Francisco (knee) will be ready for Opening Day.

American League Quick Hits: The Rangers have discussed a six-year contract extension with second baseman Ian Kinsler and are expected to present a formal offer on Wednesday ... Rays closer Kyle Farnsworth might wind up on the disabled list to open the year because of elbow soreness ... Andy Pettitte is scheduled to pitch in Wednesday's exhibition game against the Mets and could be ready for major league action by early May ... Rangers setup man Mike Adams is day-to-day with a bruised calf ... Nelson Cruz is day-to-day with a bruised elbow after getting struck by a pitch in Tuesday's exhibition game ... Recovering A's left-hander Brett Anderson threw a 40-pitch bullpen session Tuesday and is still on track for an August return ... Orioles left-hander Tsuyoshi Wada will miss the first couple weeks of the regular season due to a sore elbow ... Dallas Braden has been shut down for the next three weeks after straining his surgically-repaired throwing shoulder ... Adam Dunn is expected to bat third for the White Sox this year ... The A's placed Daric Barton on the 15-day disabled list due to lingering complications related to his September shoulder surgery ... Sam Fuld is out 4-5 months after undergoing wrist surgery ... The Tigers placed reliever Luis Marte on the disabled list with a left hamstring strain.

 

[HacheMan]

Bailing on Bailey
Finally! It's finally time for counting baseball. Sure, they played a few games last week, but if a bear craps in the woods and nobody hears it, it doesn't count. (That's how that saying goes, right?)

Anyway, it's a new day and we all have hope for the new season. Well, some of us have more hope than others. I'm sorry, Houston fans, the Astros probably aren't going to the postseason this year.

And so we'll name the tiers after the teams this week. The more likely the team to play October baseball, the better the closer.

We hope it helps.


Tier 1: Elite (5) (AKA: The "Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies and Yankees" Tier.)

Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees

Would you look at that. Two of the top four teams have two of the top four closers. Don't let that convince you that a top-tier closer is a prerequisite to a championship team -- fantasy or real. You'll need 600 innings from your top three starters, 2000 plate appearances from the middle of your order bats, and 60 innings from your closer.

That said, three of these four guys will provide you the double-digit strikeout rates that will help turn your mid-rotation starter into a more productive spot on your roster. If you get close to 100 strikeouts from your first closer, in other words, you'll be 30 strikeouts ahead of the rest in the bullpen.


Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Rays, Rangers, Angels, Cardinals" Tier.)

Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays

Not too much reason to move anything around in this tier, and they're all good pitchers (and teams). The Rangers and Angels might hurt by having such great competition in their division -- something the Rays understand -- but the Cardinals should be able to take the Pujols loss in stride. And if you lose out on one of the top four closers, you should take one of these closers and remain on track.
Andrew Bailey will be out three or more months, so he drops out, but keep him around as long as you have DL space. Why not have Sergio Santos join this tier? There isn't an obvious competitor in the pen with him, and his strikeout rate has been excellent for some time. If starters usually strike out about seven batters per nine, the top 40 in saves last year struck out about 8.8 batters per nine. Santos? Try 13 per nine. Or, if you're a visual learner, from FanGraphs.com:


Tier 3: OK options (5) (AKA: The "Giants, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Braves, Indians, Brewers" Tier.

Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Huston Street, San Diego Padres

Two or three of these teams will make the postseason. One of them could even win a postseason series. There's reason for hope in each of these cities, and more power to the front offices that built each squad: none of these cities is considered a large market.

San Francisco didn't have the Brian Wilson they knew and loved last year, but that wasn't why they fell short. That bad offense was the reason. Wilson was so erratic that it seemed like an injury might be on the way this year. Instead, Wilson has spent the spring whiffing batters like the beard of old. He has eight strikeouts in four and 2/3 innings, and has generally been untouchable. Most spring stats don't matter, but there's some evidence that component stats, like strikeout and walk rates for pitchers, are actually slightly predictive.

If so, Brandon League will be Brandon League (two strikeouts in five innings) and Huston Street will be Huston Street (nine strikeouts in nine innings).

But Jason Motte and Rafael Betancourt? Let's just say you should keep an eye on them. Motte has eight walks against six strikeouts in his twelve appearances, and that's not too great because part of his breakout last year was a career-low walk rate. Betancourt has a 6.43 ERA this spring, but if you look closer, he's less worrisome. He has eight strikeouts against two walks in seven innings, and that's exactly what he does, year-in and year-out.

Unfortunately, though this tier lost a player to injury, there are just too many question marks in the question marks tier to promote anyone. The solid options at closer are already starting to disappear. It's the yearly quickening.


Tier 4: Question marks (9) (AKA: The "Nationals, Marlins, Rockies, Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays" Tier.)

Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians

Sorta tough to find teams for this tier, in the end. A few of these closers will be great values, and useful all year. The team equivalent for that sounds like a team that will be near .500 and has an outside chance of competing for the postseason. That describes these teams, but not many more.

The best closer to fit that description from this tier might be Sean Marshall. He won't cost you much, but he has the underlying skills and the current situation in order to save some games and be a strong third closer for a competitive fantasy squad looking to finish in the money. Marshall has actually been lights-out ever since he moved to the bullpen and has 16 strikeouts in his 11 spring innings to boot. He could move up these rankings with a bullet.

Joe Nathan and Carlos Marmol both have bad ERAs in the spring so far, but it's Marmol that has six walks against his eight strikeouts, while Nathan has walked three against his seven strikeouts. That, along with the distinct chance that the Cubs unload Marmol the minute he strings together a good month, makes Kerry Wood a great pickup, and Mike Adams more of an ERA/WHIP boost than a future closer.

Frank Francisco is over 250 pounds, and has been bothered by his toe and his knee, but he pronounced himself fit… to start the season. He averages about fifty innings a year, though, so Ramon Ramirez or Jon Rauch will factor in at some point. Bobby Parnell, a.k.a. Captain Fastball, can hit triple-digits on the gun and has been good in the spring, so he has an outside chance at relevance.

Matt Capps and Chris Perez aren't great pitchers. Capps, at least, doesn't walk anyone, but both of them fail to strike guys out or keep the ball on the ground. On the other hand, they seem comfortable in their jobs… right now. Watch Vinnie Pestano and Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Mets, Pirates, Cubs, Padres, Athletics, Mariners, White Sox, Royals, Orioles" Tier.)

Mark Melancon (first chair), Alfredo Aceves (second chair), Boston Red Sox
Henry Rodriguez (fourth chair), Tyler Clippard (second chair), Brad Lidge (third chair), Washington Nationals
Matt Thornton (first chair), Addison Reed (second chair), Hector Santiago (third chair), Jesse Crain (fourth chair), Chicago White Sox
Jonathan Broxton (first chair), Greg Holland (second chair), Kansas City Royals
Javy Guerra (first chair), Kenley Jansen (second chair), Los Angeles Dodgers
Joel Peralta (first chair), Jake McGee (second chair), Fernando Rodney (third chair), Tampa Bay Rays

If your team shows up here, sorry. Watch the young guys and dreamcast about the future. It's all you can do.

Finding the gem in this mess won't be easy. Mark Melancon is the clear get right now -- but he's also a temporary closer, as Bailey could be back by the All-Star break. Bailey could also be out until August, depending on who you believe about the severity of his thumb surgery. At least his competition for the role is minimal, as Aceves will be needed in the rotation from time to time too. Melancon has closed before and has the better peripherals. It's worth mentioning that the Red Sox beat writers think Aceves is the guy, so if you're trolling for saves, you can pick him up. But Melancon has the peripherals of a closer, not the swing man Aceves.

Henry Rodriguez looks like he has the closer role in Washington, thanks to his 100 MPH gas and crazy hook (not thanks to his terrible control). Joel Peralta is the front runner in Tampa Bay, but he's pretty bad against lefties and might need help from lefty youngster Jake McGee from time to time. In both cases, however, we're left waiting for news about the incumbent's elbows. If the vets in front of them are just taking a few weeks off, we'll look pretty silly for getting all up in arms about this.

Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Kenley Jansen are the long-term owns on this list. If you're in a keeper league, it's fine to bypass the veterans in front of them. They've got lights-out stuff and are headed to the closer's role at some point.

But right now? Right now it's Javy Guerra, and Matt Thornton, and Jonathan Broxton probably. Thornton is the best pitcher, and his team could pump up his value before trading him, so he's the best pickup among the trio. Broxton was once a great pitcher, and he could regain his velocity (he's struck out nine in his seven spring innings), so he's next. Injured

Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals


If only we could take a peak in the elbows of Kyle Farnsworth and The Steals Department
Heard some feedback last week that
Ben Revere wasn't a starter and was therefore a bad sleeper for speed. It was a poorly-timed announcement by the team, I'll admit that, but I'll also stick by my belief that he'll steal 35+ bases this year. Not only will he steal bases when he's in, but now that Chris Parmalee is headed to the DH role, he's only competing with Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Doumit in the outfield, and Trevor Plouffe does not own great upside, and Ryan Doumit is Mr. Breakable. Lorenzo Cain obviously has a better grip on the job than Revere, but he's owned more and also more of a .280/10/20 kind of guy and won't make the same impact in steals. John Mayberry, Jr. will have a regular role in the early season, but his contact troubles will mean that his 20 and 10 will come with a bad batting average. Brandon Belt could get 20 and 10 with a better batting average, and has made the team in San Francisco, but with the way that tream has treated him, he might best be a wait and see.

If you want a great mixed-league speedster that might still be on your waiver wire, has an assured starting job, and will put up stats that fit your 12-teamer, there's Alejandro De Aza in Chicago. He'll steal more bags than Cain, hit for a better average than Mayberry, and has a job in hand. He's a great sleeper worthy of your bench spot if you need a little speed. And if he's gone, just take the National League version -- Angel Pagan.

Deep leaguers? The player that combines a starting job with the most projected steals and the lowest ownership rates is… Jordan Schafer! He won't give you runs because the Houston offense will be that bad. He won't give you home runs, because he hasn't shown league-average power since half a season in Double-A in 2008. He won't give you a nice batting average because he strikes out too much. He does walk, though, and he can steal a base. His 83% career success rate on steals is excellent enough that he'll continue to get the green light. With Jason Bourgeois gone, there's even less competition for center field. Pencil him in for 30ish steals, a full slate of plate appearances, a few home runs… and a .250ish batting average. Hey, you chose to play in that deep league, right?

 

[HacheMan]

Spring training wrapup

Updates on watch players, plus position battle winners and losers


By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

We've reached the end.


Don't fret, though -- we've merely reached the end of spring training. Now something even greater is here: baseball's Opening Day!

The statistics now count, and all that work you've done constructing your team is about to pay off. (I say, "about to pay off" because I prefer an optimistic angle.)

But before the season begins -- or, at least the season for 26 of the 30 big league teams -- let's take a look back at what transpired during spring training. What changed? Are there any nuggets, especially in the resolution of those position battles, which might help fantasy owners with either an upcoming draft or an add/drop deadline? Value is always changing.
The "watch list" update

First, let's take a quick-hitting look at how the eight players in my original "watch list" concluded their springs:

Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: Here's as good an example as any of how spring statistics can be manipulated. Everyone talks about his .227 batting average, four walks and 22 strikeouts, but what if I told you this: He was a .143/.200/.179 hitter with a 33.3 percent K rate in his first nine Grapefruit League games, but a .277/.314/.553 hitter with a 23.5 percent K rate in his last 15? Ultimately, Heyward's swing looks improved, as the homer total demonstrates his ability to hit for power, and he's showing an ability to drive the ball to all fields, something that wasn't as easy for him during his down 2011. There isn't enough here to say Heyward will have a massive breakout season, but expecting a return to his 2010 performance level is reasonable.


Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: The 1.45 spring ERA in five starts will grab you, but I maintain that Wainwright has yet to show the kind of command, especially of his curveball, that earned him a third-place finish in the 2009 National League Cy Young balloting, and second place in the 2010 race. Just listen to his own assessment of his final spring tune-up, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "It was very vanilla, very bland. … My breaking balls weren't sharp. My fastballs weren't located. That is not a good combination."


Sure, Wainwright is holding himself to a high standard, and he should. But I look at his six K's compared to four walks in his past 13&frac23; spring innings and say he's not quite where he was pre-surgery. His spring says he'll get there with time, but I remain firm in my assessment of the right-hander at the start of camp.


Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta Braves: That he's healthy enough to pitch this spring is a plus in itself, but that 4.15 K's-per-nine ratio in his three exhibition starts -- small sample, yes, but still troubling -- hardly looks like vintage Hanson. The more I watch him pitch the more his delivery bothers me, and it puts him near or at the top of the boom-or-bust player list. Think of him as a "Josh Johnson 2011," but for 2012.


Jesus Montero, DH, Seattle Mariners: The question in my initial column wasn't about Montero's health or performance at the plate, it was about his position, and in both of the Mariners' regular-season games in Japan, he was their designated hitter. Yes, in 17 total games this spring -- Cactus League, exhibition games in Japan and those regular-season games in Japan -- Montero caught nine, but only once did he catch on back-to-back days: March 9-10. That the Mariners will begin the season with three catchers on their roster, starter Miguel Olivo and backup John Jaso the others, signals that Montero should at least get a backup's amount of time behind the plate. So if you're guessing, if one out of every four Mariners games is a Montero catching game, then he'd qualify at catcher in ESPN leagues on May 17. (He needs 10 games to qualify at catcher.)


Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore Orioles: His spring has been a total loss, as Britton suffered another setback with his shoulder shortly after my initial list was published. He visited Dr. James Andrews in mid-March and received two rounds of platelet-rich plasma therapy, and was placed on the 15-day disabled list. At best, maybe he'd factor into the season's second half.


Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles: Matusz was a subject of our recent "30 Questions" series, and the only update to his spring performance thus far was that he limited the Detroit Tigers to three runs on five hits in five innings, striking out four compared to one walk on March 30, his final Grapefruit League start. Thanks to a 22-K, 3-walk spring, he grabbed the fifth-starter job for the Orioles, putting himself on the radar as an AL-only sleeper and a pitcher to watch closely even in shallow mixed leagues.


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Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins: Like Heyward, Morneau's has been a tale of two springs, as he managed .091/.167/.091 triple-slash rates and a 19.4 percent K rate during his first 11 Grapefruit League contests, but .433/.452/.900 rates and a 9.7 percent K rate during his last nine. Unfortunately, I haven't seen much of that Morneau the past week, witnessing more of the terrible edition that toed the field the first three weeks of March. That said, there's a potential explanation for his struggles: Improvement in his wrist, which he had surgically repaired last September.

"I think earlier I was a little afraid to kind of let it go, and I've build that confidence in there that it's not going to go back to where it was before I had the surgery," he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Morneau will serve as the Twins' everyday designated hitter this season, a smart move by the team as it could keep him healthier for a lengthier period. He's as risky as they come, the prospect of another concussion perhaps threatening his career, but in his new role he's sneaking on the radar even in mixed formats.

Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets: Well, he looks healthy, at least. Though, unlike the aforementioned Hanson, Santana might actually stay healthy for an entire season -- or at least if I had to predict one of them to do so, it'd be Santana, not Hanson. Santana is coming off back-to-back strong spring outings versus the Cardinals, striking out 11 compared to three walks in 11 innings, and while his 200-plus-strikeout seasons are probably long behind him, he can certainly be of service in NL-only and deep mixed leagues. At the bare minimum he'd be a smart streaming-starts option in ESPN daily formats.


10 spring battle winners of note



While there were plenty more than 10 positions up for grabs this spring, these are 10 of the most relevant, highest-impact decisions in fantasy leagues. Here's a quick look at the winners of each, and the fantasy relevance for the players involved:


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Boston Red Sox fourth and fifth starters and closer: To think, at the onset of spring training, the primary question for the Red Sox was whether converted reliever Daniel Bard would make a successful transition to the rotation, but at the end, the questions were not only about him, but who would join him in the starting five and who would stand in for injured closer Andrew Bailey. It took all spring, but we finally have our answers: Bard is the fifth starter, Felix Doubront is No. 4 and Alfredo Aceves, the loser in the rotation battle against those two, will occupy the ninth inning for the Red Sox come Opening Day. Bard and Aceves immediately stand out as winners; conversely, former Houston Astros finisher Mark Melancon is the clear loser in the closer race.


Bard might have endured his share of struggles this spring -- his ERA was 6.57 -- but in his defense, he was adapting to a completely different role, and did in brief spells flash the dominance he had as a short reliever. He's not a "start him" type option initially, but well worth stashing in an AL-only league. The rubber-armed Aceves, meanwhile, should be an instant pickup in all formats, his 2.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP during his career as a reliever more than supporting his case to succeed in his new role. Sure, the Red Sox might need him to start -- or eat up multiple innings in middle relief -- in time, and for that reason Melancon warrants keeping on an AL-only bench. But Aceves is well worth adding and activating for now.


Toronto Blue Jays fifth starter: Though Joel Carreno's ascension to the Blue Jays' rotation this week might be the surprise of their spring, it's actually the other rotation-spot winner who should attract fantasy attention: Kyle Drabek will begin the year as their No. 5 starter. You might recall Drabek as "that awful rookie who ruined my AL-only team with a 6.06 ERA and 1.81 WHIP last season," but as Keith Law notes, the right-hander this spring revamped his delivery and has increased use of a two-seamer that should generate a healthy number of ground balls. Sure enough, Drabek finished the spring with a 3.72 ERA and 14 K's in 19&frac13; innings, and while his margin for error is slim in the high-scoring American League East, he's well worth a speculative late-round pick in an AL-only league.


New York Yankees third, fourth and fifth starters: The story here is less about what Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia did this spring than what Michael Pineda did not do; Pineda couldn't get his fastball velocity up into the mid-90s range in which it resided during his hot first half of 2011, and after admitting to a shoulder injury during his final spring start, the right-hander was placed on the disabled list to begin the year. Hughes' performance, however, bears noting: He managed a 1.56 ERA and 4.0 K's-per-walk ratio in five spring appearances, looking closer to the top prospect he was a few short seasons ago than the disappointment he was in 2010-11. Give Hughes one more chance to prove himself; he still has the skills to be a solid No. 2-3 big league starter.


Detroit Tigers fifth starter: Rookie Drew Smyly emerged with this role after managing a healthy 4.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his five spring appearances. If you're asking, "Who is Drew Smyly?" Here's your answer: He's a 22-year-old left-hander whom Keith Law ranks the No. 3 prospect in the Tigers' organization -- he didn't make Law's top 100 overall -- and who was 11-6 with a 2.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.29 K's-per-nine ratio in 22 games (21 starts) between Class A Lakeland and Double-A Erie last season. Smyly is a relative unknown, a rookie who might take time to adapt to the majors, but he's capable of striking hitters out and generating a healthy number of grounders. He might succeed enough that AL-only owners will find use for him, and those in daily leagues might want to consider him as a streaming option.
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Cincinnati Reds fifth starter: Sometimes the best man doesn't win, which might well be the case in Cincinnati, where Homer Bailey, he of the 7.98 ERA and 1.84 WHIP during the Cactus League season, beat out Aroldis Chapman, who had 2.12/1.12 numbers, for this much-discussed role. From a roster-preservation perspective the decision makes sense; Bailey is out of options and would have had to been either demoted to the bullpen, where he has little experience as a pro, or exposed to waivers if removed from the roster. But it's a frustrating decision for fantasy owners, because it probably locks Chapman into a relief role for most, if not all, of 2012, he's hardly assured of overtaking Sean Marshall for the closer gig, and his WHIP tends to be too high for him to be of much help to your ratios in middle relief. Consider this the disappointing decision of the bunch.


Colorado Rockies third base: At times this spring, it appeared that veteran Casey Blake might be the Rockies' starting third baseman, then an early buzz hinted hotshot prospect Nolan Arenado might be a dark horse candidate for the gig. At spring's end, Blake has been released and Arenado returned to the minors … leaving the position in the hands of a Chris Nelson-Jordan Pacheco platoon. Don't underestimate either player as an NL-only option, however, as Nelson could be a .275-hitting, 15/15 type if granted regular at-bats, while the lifetime .303 minor league hitter Pacheco might be a wise No. 2 catcher option in those leagues that use two catchers if he can sneak in enough time behind the plate to qualify there. These are the kinds of players valuable as back-of-your-roster plug-ins.


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Atlanta Braves shortstop: This battle of rookies turned out to be a bust; favorite Tyler Pastornicky batted .221/.270/.250 in 68 spring at-bats, while upstart Andrelton Simmons managed .186/.271/.233 in 43 at-bats of his own. When everyone fails, go with the initial favorite, right? That's apparently the Braves' thinking, though having watched Simmons' brilliant defensive skills, it's fair to say that he might have won the job if he had any experience above Class A ball, wasn't just 22 years old or had at least performed equally well at the plate as Pastornicky. Pastornicky doesn't look ready to be anything more than a cheap source of steals in NL-only leagues, and Simmons might have done enough that if he gets off to a scorching start in Double-A Mississippi, he could get the call by midseason.


Cleveland Indians third base: This one is more about who didn't win the job than who did: The Indians returned Lonnie Chisenhall, the most attractive fantasy option of the primary contenders, to the minors last week, handing the role to veteran Jack Hannahan. Unfortunately, Hannahan's most valuable asset is his glove; he has 34 defensive runs saved as a third baseman since 2008. The reason that's "unfortunately": DRS isn't a category in the vast majority of fantasy leagues. (Yet?)


Kansas City Royals second base: Ditto Indians third base, as Johnny Giavotella was the unfortunate loser of this battle, earning himself a trip to the minors, as well. That elevates Chris Getz to starter status, making him the likely Opening Day starter for a third consecutive season, though in neither of the past two years was he much of a fantasy option. Getz's 36 steals combined from 2010-11, plus his prospects of regular at-bats at least initially, put him on the AL-only radar, but don't expect much. Giavotella might warrant a midseason call-up, just as he earned one a summer ago.


Tampa Bay Rays fifth starter: One of the Rays' strengths is their starting pitching depth; beyond just Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis, Alex Cobb is a pretty viable rotation contender in his own right, even though he scarcely got a look for this role this spring. The story here is Niemann ousting Davis, who heads to the bullpen, meaning those in AL-only and very deep mixed leagues should make that switch, as well. Niemann's 4.05 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in four starts this spring might not be eye-popping, but the takeaway from his camp was that he dabbled with a cutter, which might give him a chance to take a noticeable step forward in his fifth big league season.

 

[HacheMan]

Miami Madness

That’s two Opening Days down and one to go. Or maybe it’s two.

Regardless, while Major League Baseball insists on making its opening week more complicated than the Starks vs. the Lannisters, there’s nothing complicated about the fact that Wednesday's unveiling of Marlins Park was less than triumphant for the team formerly known as Florida.

Things went from bad (The Fray inspired National Anthem), to sad (Muhammad Ali’s heartbreaking appearance alongside a preening Jeffrey Loria) to ugly (the Marlins’ performance), all in a matter of moments.

Looking to prove he’s over the shoulder woes that limited him to nine starts in 2011, Josh Johnson turned in one of the flatter performances of his post-Tommy John career. His velocity (92-94 MPH) was there, but his feel and movement were not. He surrendered 10 hits, or as many as he allowed through his first four outings (27 innings) last season.

Whereas Johnson was routinely unhittable before landing on the shelf last May, he served up hangers and lifeless fastballs as his Cardinals counterpart Kyle Lohse stunned what the Marlins hope will become the faithful with six no-hit innings.

That is not to say Johnson got any help from his defense. Hanley Ramirez’s shift from shortstop to third got off to an exceedingly poor start, as he inexplicably failed to run down a routine grounder before not bothering to cut off a throw on David Freese’s two-run single in the first. He was casual at best and laissez faire at worst.

Left fielder Logan Morrison was more focused than Ramirez, but it didn’t necessarily produce better results. LoMo took a number of poor routes, and looked overmatched by his new ballpark’s cavernous dimensions (which Lance Berkman is not a fan of).

And oh those dimensions. They robbed Giancarlo Stanton of not one, but two home runs, and suggested the hype about Marlins Park was all wrong: it’s not going to play big out in center, it’s going to play Polo Grounds.

The good news, of course, was that it was only one game. It’s quite possible Johnson — aided by 2-3 spectacular plays from Ramirez and a Stanton bomb — will toss seven scoreless his next time out. At least for one night, though, the Marlins looked to be as much of a work-in-progress on the field as they are off of it.

Closing Argument

One day after we learned Andrew Bailey’s injured thumb will sideline him through at least the All-Star break, we learned who will get the first crack at replacing him.

Manager Bobby Valentine bucked conventional wisdom and decreed long-man Alfredo Aceves will get the ball if a save situation arises against the Tigers this afternoon, leaving Mark Melancon to set up.

Aceves should be effective — he turned in a 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9 across 114 innings last season — but will be seeing his versatility go to waste. Aceves recorded more than three outs in 31 of his 55 appearances (four starts) last season. Melancon did so just nine times in 71 games.

The move leaves the Red Sox down a potential starting option should injury befall the rotation, and with Belted

After a month of hilariously unnecessary intrigue, the Giants announced that, yes, they will be bringing Brandon Belt north with them to San Francisco.

Manager Bruce Bochy even went as far as to hint that Belt could begin the year as the Giants’ everyday first baseman. Of course, a platoon with Brett Pill has also been alluded to, but we’ll worry about that another day.

Why the decision was so hard for a team that scored a National League worst 570 runs last season is a mystery. Two weeks shy of his 24th birthday, the Giants’ 2009 fifth-round pick is a career .343/.457/.596 hitter through 825 minor-league plate appearances, and has nothing left to prove in the Pacific Coast League. Although concerns exist about Belt’s swing (he’s had trouble with inside fastballs), he’s earned the right to sink-or-swim for a club that had been set to start 35-year-old Aubrey Huff, who’s coming off a .246/.306/.370 2011, at first base. Huff’s show will now be taken to the outfield.

Whether or not Belt will actually get a legitimate chance to establish himself or again have the rug pulled out from under him is anyone's guess, but there’s no guesswork in what must be done if he’s still on your league’s wire: add him.

Opening Day III: Open Hard With A Vengeance

If the Marlins were shaken by their rocky reintroduction, they won’t have long to dwell on it. That’s because they’re one of 14 teams set to take part in Opening Day, Phase III this afternoon.

They’ll head to Cincinnati, where the Reds will keep Mat Latos in mothballs and roll with 2011 ace Johnny Cueto.

Elsewhere, Justin Verlander and Jon Lester will square off in Detroit, Stephen Strasburg will take the ball for the Nats at Wrigley Field and Johan Santana will make his first appearance since September 2, 2010 against the Braves.

Somewhere in between, Roy Halladay will mow down the Pirates, Toronto and Cleveland will meet up near Lake Erie and the Dodgers will visit San Diego on their final Frank McCourt-marred Opening Day.

It’s good to be back.

National League Short Hops: Stephen Drew (ankle) was officially placed on the disabled list. He's without a return date. … Jon Niese signed a five-year, $25 million extension, buying out his arbitration years and locking him up through age 30. It’s a shrewd move for a team that should find itself back on the rise before the deal runs out. … Zack Greinke hired an agent, signaling that though he may not be a lock to hit the open market next winter, he’s certainly not close to signing an extension. The Brewers are going to have to pony up to keep their co-ace. … John Lannan emailed the media, saying he believed it would be best for both he and the Nationals were he to be traded. His $5 million salary won’t make it easy. … Troy Tulowitzki (elbow) played in Colorado’s exhibition loss to the Mariners. He’ll be all-systems-go against the Astros Friday. ... Bryan LaHair (back) is "50-50" to play against the Nationals. At worst, he’ll make his 2012 debut this weekend.

American League Short Hops: Nick Johnson officially made the Orioles. Until he gets hurt, he’s worth an AL-only league trial. … An MRI revealed Kyle Farnsworth’s elbow injury to be only a strain. He could end up spending the minimum 15 days on the disabled list, but for now, Joel Peralta will head a ninth-inning committee in Tampa. … Farnsworth’s teammate Sean Rodriguez learned he will be the Rays’ primary shortstop. A slap hitter with decent speed, he’s worth an own in all AL-only leagues. … Josh Beckett insisted his thumb is “fine,” and will start on Saturday against the Tigers. … Andy Pettitte turned in a scoreless

 

[HacheMan]

Buckle Up
Welcome to this season's first edition of Waiver Wired. This is my third straight year writing this column for Rotoworld, where each and every Thursday I provide some names to consider on your league's waiver wire.

With this weekly column, you'll find coverage of mixed leagues, as well as AL-only and NL-only formats.

You'll notice that I use ownership percentages from Yahoo! and ESPN, two of the most popular sites for fantasy baseball. There may be some pretty big disparities in ownership levels early on in the season, primarily due to pre-draft rankings, but those should even out soon enough. I usually try to list players who are owned in less than 50 percent in both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues, but since the season is just getting started, I'll let it slide in certain cases.

Keep in mind that this Opening Day (or Opening Day Pt. 3, really) edition is a bit shorter than normal, as it's mostly a dress rehearsal for what we'll have next week. By then, we'll have a lot more data to work with, as well as some more insight on playing time arrangements and closer situations. But hopefully this will tide you over.

And with that little spiel out of the way, let's get to our first batch of names for the new season.

Alfredo Aceves SP/RP, Red Sox (Yahoo: 59 percent owned, ESPN: 5.2 percent)

This one shouldn't surprise anyone, as Aceves is probably the must-add of the week at this point. Many expected Bobby Valentine would go with Mark Melancon as the replacement for Andrew Bailey, who is out three to four months following thumb surgery, but he announced Wednesday that Aceves will open the season as the closer. I'm not sure this is the best decision for the Red Sox, as what makes Aceves so valuable is his versatility and ability to pitch multiple innings as opposed just the ninth. He also benefitted from an unusually low batting average on balls in play last year and gave up eight homers in 114 innings despite a fly ball rate of 45 percent, so I doubt we'll see a repeat of his 2.61 ERA. Still, saves are saves and Aceves figures to get plenty of them on this team.

Brandon Belt 1B/OF, Giants (Yahoo: 47 percent owned, ESPN: 66.4 percent)

Our other no-brainer add of the week. That there was even a question about whether Belt would make the Opening Day roster is downright comical, but there was no way to be sure until the official announcement was made Wednesday. Bruce Bochy has teased us in the past, but he plans to platoon Belt and Brett Pill at first base while moving Aubrey Huff to left field. I hope it's not a strict platoon, as Belt should still get tested against southpaws, but there's legitimately the chance for 20 or more homers here if the 23-year-old finally gets his chance to sink-or-swim. With his added eligibility in the outfield, that's not a bad way to fill out your roster in standard mixed leagues.

Joel Peralta RP, Rays (Yahoo: 23 percent owned, ESPN: 1.7 percent)

Kyle Farnsworth will likely begin the season on the disabled list due to a strained flexor pronator muscle in his elbow, the very same injury which forced him to miss a couple weeks down the stretch last year. The Rays hope he won't have to miss a significant amount of time, but Joe Maddon is now forced to consider the alternatives. Fernando Rodney has the most closing experience of the lot and J.P. Howell saved 17 games in 2009, but Joel Peralta figures to get the bulk of the chances. The 36-year-old right-hander went 5-for-5 in save opportunities while filling in for Farnsworth late last year and owns an impressive 2.55 ERA and 110/27 K/BB ratio in 116 2/3 innings over the past two seasons. He could pay big dividends if Farnsworth's injury lingers.

Sean Rodriguez 2B/3B/SS, Rays (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 35.6 percent)

Rays manager Joe Maddon announced Wednesday that Rodriguez will begin the season as the starting shortstop. Reid Brignac and Elliot Johnson will also get playing time, but Maddon was quick to add that it won't necessarily be a strict platoon, which is interesting given that Rodriguez has a .782 career OPS against southpaws compared to a .615 OPS against right-handed pitching. The 26-year-old is clearly a batting average risk, but I ultimately don't see a tremendous difference between him and Ian Desmond, who is owned is 60 percent of Y! leagues and 52 percent of ESPN.com leagues. The potential for double-digit home runs and steals gives him plenty of value in mixed formats with a MI (middle infield) spot.

Henry Rodriguez RP, Nationals (Yahoo: 26 percent owned, ESPN: 1.0 percent)
Brad Lidge RP, Nationals (Yahoo: 13 percent owned, ESPN: 3.8 percent)

I'm grouping these guys together because they are expected to share closing duties while Drew Storen is on the disabled list with right elbow inflammation. They have both looked fantastic this spring, combining to allow just two earned runs over 22 innings while striking out 24 and walking just three. Lidge probably gets the edge because of previous closing experience, but Rodriguez is one of the hardest throwers in the game and could be poised for a breakthrough if he can get his control issues in check. I wouldn't drop anybody significant for either of them, as Storen is on track to return in a couple weeks, but they should each get save opportunities in the early going.

Jose Tabata OF, Pirates (Yahoo: 46 percent owned, ESPN: 8.8 percent)

This is an example of someone who I think will be owned in the majority of mixed leagues by the end of this season. Tabata underwhelmed in his sophomore campaign, but I'm willing to give him a bit of a mulligan since he dealt with hamstring, quad and hand injuries. Besides, the 23-year-old still had a healthy .349 on-base percentage to go along with 23 extra-base hits (four home runs), 21 RBI, 16 stolen bases and 53 runs scored in 91 games. Tabata hits way too many ground balls to expect double-digit homers anytime soon, but assuming he can stay healthy, I see him swiping 30 bases and scoring 80-90 runs as the No. 2 hitter in the Pirates' lineup.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Juan Nicasio SP, Rockies (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 1.1 percent)

Jamie Moyer wasn't the only remarkable story in Rockies' camp this spring. Nicasio has his career back on track just eight months after suffering a fractured C-1 vertebrae when he was hit by a line drive. The 25-year-old right-hander had a promising 4.14 ERA and 58/18 K/BB ratio over 71 2/3 innings prior to the injury and hasn't missed a beat with his velocity this spring, popping the mid-90s on the radar gun with regularity. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being more valuable than his teammate Jhoulys Chacin, who is owned in 64 percent of Y! leagues and 49 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

Hector Santiago RP, White Sox (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

White Sox manager Robin Ventura has yet to give any indication which way he's leaning for the closer gig, but he did let Santiago close out Tuesday's exhibition win over the Astros. Hint? Maybe. Maybe not. But we'll take them where we can get them. While most of the attention has been focused on Matt Thornton, Addison Reed and Jesse Crain, but the young screwballer allowed just one run over 11 innings this spring while striking out 13 and walking six. The walks are a bit of a concern (he averaged 4.1 BB/9 in the minors) and this could be a fluid situation all year, but I'd pick him up if Thornton and Reed are already off the board. <!--RW-->

AL-ONLY

Drew Smyly SP, Tigers (Yahoo: N/A, ESPN: 0.3 percent)

The Tigers were considering a host of names for the fifth spot in the starting rotation, but Smyly ended up getting the nod after posting a 4.00 ERA and 14/7 K/BB ratio over 18 innings this spring. While not as highly-regarded as fellow prospect Jacob Turner, the 22-year-old southpaw thrived in his first year of pro ball by posting a 2.07 ERA and 130/36 K/BB ratio over 126 innings between High-A Lakeland and Double-A Erie last season. The 2010 second-round isn't a hard-thrower, mostly sitting in the high-80s to low-90s, but is pretty polished for a pitcher with so little pro experience. He's not slated to make his major league debut until April 12 against the Rays, but he could surprise with the powerful Detroit offense behind him.

Chris Parmelee 1B, Twins (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 0.6 percent)

While Parmelee impressed in a small sample last September, it appeared that he would open this season with Triple-A Rochester unless Justin Morneau had a setback with his concussion symptoms. However, Morneau's recent declaration that he would prefer to be a designated hitter has thrust Parmelee into the starting first base job. I'm not sold that the the 2006 first-round pick will end up being anything more than a platoon player in the long-term, as he has traditionally performed much better against right-handed pitching than southpaws, but he's worth the gamble with the clear path to early playing time.

NL-ONLY

Tyler Colvin OF, Rockies (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

You may have noticed that popular sleeper Dexter Fowler batted just .149 with a 17/3 K/BB ratio over 67 at-bats during Cactus League play. I wouldn't normally bring this up since spring statistics are mostly meaningless, but it's worth noting that the Rockies have a lengthy history of jerking him around. If he gets off to a slow start, it wouldn't be shocking to see Colvin steal some playing time. Keep in mind that Colvin batted .150 over 222 plate appearances with the Cubs last year while striking out 26.1 percent of the time, so he's no lock for success, but he did sock 20 homers in 2010. Hitting in Coors Field can only help his chances at a rebound.

Juan Francisco 3B, Braves (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.2 percent)

Desperate for some extra depth following Chipper Jones' latest knee surgery, the Braves picked up Francisco from the Reds over the weekend for right-hander J.J. Hoover. Things haven't really changed much for Francisco in his new locale, as he has essentially traded in backing up one old, injury-prone third baseman for another. The early word is that Jones could return before the Braves' home opener on April 13, but I have a feeling this won't be his only DL-stint this season. Francisco's pop from the left side of the plate could surprise.

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2012: The Quarterbacks

What a difference a year makes.

Last draft season, many observers were convinced that Andrew Luck's return to college deprived the 2011 draft class of its only elite quarterback prospect. Fast forward one Cam Newton Rookie of the Year award and 12 months later, and a large chunk of informed analysts believe Luck should be challenged for the top quarterback ranking by the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner.

The departure from consensus opinion does not stop there, as some feel the only two quarterbacks worth first-round selections will be drafted with the first two overall picks. Opinions are all across the board on Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill and Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden. Sure, fewer teams need quarterbacks compared to last offseason, but it is not farfetched to predict that four signal callers will be drafted on day one. With the Eagles, Chiefs, and other seemingly quarterback-secure teams entering the rookie discussion in an annually unpredictable draft, anything can happen.

As rookie quarterbacks continue to earn playing time sooner each year, it is probable that at least four of the players broken down here will start a game in 2012.

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford

Height/Weight: 6'4/234
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 4.67
Comparison: Rich Gannon
2011 Stats: 288-of-404 (71.3%) for 3,517 yds (8.71 YPA), 37 TD/10 INT; 3.2 YPC, 2 TD
Draft Prediction: Colts, No. 1 overall

Positives: Luck has fantastic pocket movement, consistently stepping up when facing outside pressure or flowing laterally against interior blitzes. He handles free rushers like a pro by immediately escaping the pocket or delivering a quick throw. One of the few stud QB prospects that is already comfortable from center, Luck's drop steps are very mature and coordinated with proper footwork. It is often overlooked, but Luck consistently delivers crisp passes with sound placement after working through progressions, even in limited space to operate. He is comfortable with anticipation routes after graduating from Stanford's traditional pro-style offense, consistently delivering passes in a catchable area before the receiver's head is turned. Luck protects the ball very well when moving in confined areas, covering it with both hands and dipping his shoulder to evade contact. His motion is incredibly smooth, with no hitches and a top-to-bottom release. Rather than sticking only to open options, Luck gives his receivers the benefit of the doubt if they have a step on the defender in close coverage or in mismatch situations. He isn't going to kill you on the run, but Luck uses his athleticism effectively, climbing the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield or taking the yards the defense gives him. He consistently tests defenses vertically, taking calculated shots in the deep sections of the field.

Negatives: It has been widely discussed that Luck lacks elite arm strength, and while that may or may not be the case, he certainly could follow through more often since some passes are shortarmed. He is a bit cautious in terms of velocity on short to intermediate routes, choosing to take off a few clicks to guide a pass to its target rather than firing a bullet. Luck could also improve his downfield trajectory, as some passes have too much arch. He struggles the most when a quick-hitting play is covered, whether it be a screen pass or an initial target after a three-step drop. Luck tends to panic more than usual in these situations, forcing a throw or losing coordination in his lower body.

Outlook: Luck is not a perfect prospect, but I firmly believe he is in a class of his own in this year's signal-calling crop. In fact, I would put Luck in the "rare" category of draft prospects, a title recently held by only Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh. Luck truly is beyond his years in terms of development by having more play-calling responsibility than numerous starting quarterbacks in the NFL -- with outstanding results. Luck might make it look too easy, and even boring at times with a smooth throwing motion and well-placed throws, but those skills will translate into consistency. Luck may not possess of the upside of Cam Newton or Robert Griffin III in terms of maximizing athletic potential and using it at the quarterback position. However, there is no doubt Luck's game seamlessly translates to NFL competition. Indianapolis will be a tough year-one landing spot, but Luck will instantly become the best player on the Colts' offense.

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor

Height/Weight: 6'2/223
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 4.41
Comparison: Michael Vick
2011 Stats: 291-of-402 (72.4%) for 4,293 yds (10.7 YPA), 37 TD/6 INT; 3.9 YPC, 10 TD
Draft Prediction: Redskins, No. 2 overall

Positives: The Heisman winner dominated the Big 12 while showing dramatic improvement from the 2010-2011 season. Griffin is most lethal outside the pocket, keeping his eyes up to stretch defenses laterally then unleashing outstanding vertical bucket throws that always seem to be placed perfectly on the receiver's outside shoulder. Despite rare athleticism, Griffin is a passer first with high intelligence and a great grasp of the game, which has previously been a downfall for dual-threat quarterbacks. Griffin is still a dangerous runner and unafraid of getting skinny between the tackles. He always seems to get the ball out quickly, allowing the receiver to run in open space after the catch. Griffin is very active in the pocket after an initial read, effectively moving zones and spies at the second level to open up passing lanes. In the majority of times he faces edge pressure, Griffin is unafraid of stepping up into the pocket despite inevitable contact. This kind of poise is frequently overlooked, but Griffin is prepared to take a crushing hit if it means buying an extra second for his receiver to separate. The fast-hitting spread offense is common in college, but no one ran it better than Griffin. His timing was crisp despite a furious pace and many drives ended in the endzone after only five or six snaps because of Griffin's willingness to challenge defenses vertically.

Negatives: Despite committing himself as a pass-first quarterback, I still would not call Griffin a true pocket-style thrower. At least not yet. Griffin rarely started from center and it shows in his drops off the snap. His initial steps are ideal but when the first read is covered, the athlete in Griffin often takes over. His steps begin to lack purpose and coordination, with choppy footwork or a single long stride to the next read. These inconsistent movements also materialize occasionally when the pocket closes around him, with Griffin dropping his eye level to check out the pass rush, flashing discomfort in tight spaces. With that said, Griffin has really improved the way he resets after those chaotic instances, though he could do better in feeling backside pressure. I would stop short of saying Griffin has pinpoint accuracy on intermediate routes, but he consistently places passes in a receiver's catch radius, only occasionally missing high. It's nitpicking, but I am not a huge fan of how Griffin holds the ball before his throwing motion; it is very Troy Smith-esque with bowed arms.

Outlook: I had more concern about Griffin's future before the Redskins traded up. A team should craft its offensive style to fit the quarterback's skills, but I would have questioned Griffin's future if forced to solely work in the pocket. There is no doubt he works well on the move and makes exceptional throws, but it is tough to overlook the moments when his footwork gets chaotic -- focusing more on the closing pocket than downfield targets. Griffin's fit in D.C. could not be better. His sometimes-erratic movements may become an advantage under the Shanahans, who prefer mobile quarterbacks in order to stretch the defense. It is going to be a fun ride watching a player with Griffin's mix of athleticism and mental capacity develop in an offense that fits his talents like a glove.

3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Height/Weight: 6'4/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.62
Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger
2011 Stats: 327-of-521 (62.3%) for 3,744 yds (7.19 YPA), 29 TD/15 INT; 5.3 YPC, 4 TD
Draft Prediction: Dolphins, No. 8 overall

Positives: Behind only Luck, Tannehill possesses the best poise and pocket movement in this year's class. Tannehill stands calmly between the tackles, evading pass rushers like a seasoned veteran. The Texas A&M offense showcases skills that project into an NFL offense, requiring the quarterback to drop from center and read route progressions that include anticipation throws. Tannehill did this remarkably well. No receiver group in the country let its quarterback down more last year than Tannehill's, consistently dropping routine catches while losing the majority of 50/50 balls. Tannehill unabashedly put them in playmaking situations, but was rarely rewarded. Faith in his surroundings and short-term memory will aid Tannehill in the pros. He flashes multiple anticipation throws in every game and shines on intermediate comeback routes along the sideline. It all starts with Tannehill's compact motion, quick release, and comfort in a closing pocket. Don't sleep on his running ability, but the former quarterback-to-receiver-to-quarterback convert is without a doubt a pocket passer by nature.

Negatives: Tannehill made only 19 quarterback starts after amassing 112 receptions and 1,596 receiving yards at receiver. Whether his play directly impacted the results or not, Texas A&M lost a handful of games last season despite late fourth-quarter leads. Tannehill's release is not the ideal, top-to-bottom motion that coaches covet, though it is consistent and generates plenty of velocity. Tannehill flashes his immaturity when reading progressions, making a couple of poor throws into disguised coverage in each contest. Some throws are rushed due to backside pressure, and Tannehill does have a tendency to hold onto the ball a bit too long when moving laterally with his eyes downfield.

Outlook: Despite common perception, Tannehill is neither a project nor raw. His command and control of the pocket rival top prospects in previous classes. I do not see the multitude of poor reads and throws others seem to perceive. In fact, the way in which Tannehill succeeded at receiver while attending both position meetings and instantly flashing mature quarterback qualities is stunning. After viewing 12 of Tannehill's 19 starts, he ranks as my eighth overall player, and I'd bang the table for the Browns to draft him with the fourth selection. Tannehill may ultimately land with college coach Mike Sherman, who's now the offensive coordinator of the Miami Dolphins. Sherman, of course, helped shape the game of Aaron Rodgers, with whom Tannehill shares a similar playing style. It will not take Tannehill three years to develop, though, and I'd wager he starts early and finds success much sooner than others project. He has every trait that a quality QB must possess and graduated from an offense that used many NFL principles. If you cannot get over the facts that he was a successful receiver, has a relatively limited number of quarterback starts, and his team relinquished late-game leads, I implore you to dig below the surface.
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4. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State

Height/Weight: 6'4/221
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.87
Comparison: Kyle Orton
2011 Stats: 408-of-564 (72.3%) for 4,727 yds (8.38 YPA), 37 TD/13 INT; 1 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Browns, 22nd overall

Positives: Weeden had total command of Oklahoma State's quick-hit offense as a two-year starter. When watching game tape, it becomes instantly clear that Weeden is unafraid of placing footballs into tight windows, especially in the middle of the field. His touch is fantastic, putting just enough velocity on passes to shade them toward his target. Weeden shines on 15-yard in-routes over the middle, especially versus zone coverage. He repeatedly made this throw during Senior Bowl week, with his favorite target being Arkansas WR Joe Adams. Weeden is certainly capable of placing sideline throws on the receiver's outside shoulder with good, but not outstanding, velocity. These throws are consistently on a rope and allow receivers to continue their upfield momentum after the catch. Instant pressure does not faze him; Weeden connects on bail-out throws quickly. Having a dominant college receiver is always nice, but I would not be surprised if Weeden actually has more success without Justin Blackmon. He seemed more confident when he could file through the route progressions rather than force throws to a single target dictated by pre-snap coverage.
Negatives: Weeden is 28 years old after a failed baseball career. When highlighting only on-field attributes, Weeden has a deficiency in one major area. Even without pressure, Weeden gets too complacent at times. He throws off his back foot on quick-breaking routes or when trying to buy an extra step versus interior pressure, failing to exhibit the same poise he flashes in a confined or clean pocket. Along with his tendency to fade from the line at times, Weeden occasionally incorporates an off-hand tap which could be used as a "tell" to reveal the target he's locked onto. Sideline bucket throws aren't Weeden's specialty, as he tends to lob them too much, resulting in slight underthrows. Weeden goes through progressions when the situation calls for it, but the reads can be a bit mechanical instead of fluidly diagnosing the coverage.

Outlook: Call me crazy, but I think Weeden suffered from the Blackmon effect at times. A good number of his interceptions came from drifting away from the pocket and throwing the ball up for grabs, usually in Blackmon's direction. Weeden consistently thrived in situations where he chose the target based on what he saw in coverage, rather than coverage choosing the target pre-snap. Weeden's footwork from center was shaky at the Senior Bowl, but he continued to improve each day. It is not a stretch to believe that the backwards momentum from center will help propel him to step up in the pocket versus edge pressure. For a team that believes Weeden can start early and effectively, age should not be a major issue. Those quarterback-needy teams do not have the luxury to wait on a young signal caller. It is tough to project Weeden into a specific NFL offense, but I see Cleveland as a solid fit where Weeden could produce like a quality starter at pick number 22 or early in the second round.

5. B.J. Coleman, UT-Chattanooga

Height/Weight: 6'3/233
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: N/A
Comparison: Jason Campbell
2011 Stats: 137-of-225 (60.9%) for 1,527 yds (6.79 YPA), 9 TD/9 INT; 1 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Broncos, No. 108 overall

Positives: Before transferring into the FCS, Coleman attended the University of Tennessee where he studied film of Peyton Manning. And it shows in his subtle movements, in-pocket tendencies, and throwing motion. This helps define Coleman: He's a true student of the game who transferred down a level of competition to maximize his playing time. Coleman loves the pump fake, utilizing it to move coverage before showcasing NFL-level velocity. Coleman was the only player during East-West Shrine week that displayed pro arm talent. He climbs the pocket well and consistently steps toward his target. Coleman is not the typical small-school prospect, as he has experience changing line calls pre-snap and was asked to complete multiple anticipation throws to targets in windows, which he did effectively. Coleman also flashes downfield passing ability, but those vertical routes succeed far more often when his timing is on point.

Negatives: Coleman tends to aim throws rather than trust his control, leading to sporadic ball placement on intermediate routes. Despite an excellent skill set, he never managed a high completion percentage which is a bit worrisome when considering the lower level of competition. In fact, some games Coleman completely lost it, throwing nine interceptions in a two-game stretch during his junior season. The picks resulted from drifting away from the pocket when facing interior pressure. It is evident Coleman has a grasp for the offense, but his second and third reads never look as clean as the first.

Outlook: Coleman is an excellent contender to hold a clipboard for a few years while potentially developing into a low-end starter down the line. Despite starting for three seasons in college, he still has some discomfort and uneasiness to his game but plenty of talent that NFL coaches can mold. It is frustrating to see, because I think Coleman is on the cusp of grasping and processing the game quickly. He stood out during Shrine week, and even if Coleman never starts he has an excellent foundation as a backup quarterback.

6. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin

Height/Weight: 5'11/204
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.55
Comparison: Seneca Wallace
2011 Stats: 225-of-309 (72.8%) for 3,175 yds (10.3 YPA), 33 TD/4 INT; 6 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Panthers, No. 143 overall

Positives/Negatives: Seemingly in college forever, Wilson gave up a promising baseball career to focus on football and shined in his only season in Madison. Wilson flashes tremendous comfort in the pocket and is unafraid of working through progressions, even testing the opposite side of the field. His top- to-bottom release helps calm the height questions, especially after playing behind a massive Badgers offensive line. Wilson panics a bit when his first read is covered, drifting out of the pocket and thinking he has to buy extra time when it's not the case. Wilson does reset well after moving laterally, but in order to maximize his limited velocity he needs to always step into throws. He is a very consistent thrower that can improve his poise when reading progressions after the initial target is covered.

Outlook: I doubt Wilson will ever be asked to be more than a spot starter and NFL backup, but those are two roles he can fill immediately. There are plenty of areas to improve when considering anticipation and comfort in closed spaces, but Wilson will have a long career as a backup.

7. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State

Height/Weight: 6'3/214
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.93
Comparison: Colt McCoy
2011 Stats: 267-of-419 (63.7%) for 3,316 yds (7.91 YPA), 25 TD/10 INT; 0 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Chiefs, No. 74 overall

Positives/Negatives: A what you see is what you get player, Cousins is solid and dependable if expectations are dampened. He frequently checks out the collapsing pocket but stands in it, albeit tentatively. Cousins has experienced footwork from center, but the steps look tight and he throws off his back foot when a rusher is closing in. Cousins' arm talent is adequate at best, having to charge into outside or downfield throws, but even these attempts tend to lack ideal velocity. Michigan State's pass catchers -- three of whom will be drafted -- consistently bailed Cousins out of tough situations, winning up-for-grabs balls. Anything within 12 yards can be efficient, but there is certainly a possibility Cousins becomes the next "Captain Checkdown." He flashes commendable pocket movement at times, pressing off his back foot on a second or third read.

Outlook: Cousins is a game manager with an excellent attitude, but will need to enter a controlled environment to succeed. He certainly could keep a game going, but if Cousins was ever asked to start a game the team should look to replace him. His dynamic personality is a trait some team may love, though.

8. Ryan Lindley, San Diego State

Height/Weight: 6'4/229
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.90
Comparison: John Skelton
2011 Stats: 237-of-447 (52.3%) for 3,153 yds (7.05 YPA), 23 TD/8 INT; 0 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Packers, No. 163 overall

Positives/Negatives: A hot-and-cold passer, Lindley is a conundrum to evaluate. He gets out of center too slowly with a noticeable hitch in his first step, but climbs the pocket nicely after planting off his back foot. If he is given a clean pocket, Lindley completes throws all over the field with a mechanical motion and release. These passes certainly appear NFL caliber, with stick throws into tight windows after briefly looking off coverage. However, Lindley's feet get frenetic as soon as the pocket starts to crumble and he will never look graceful moving laterally. During Senior Bowl week, Lindley struggled immensely, shortarming throws and showing little touch even on intermediate passes. With all that said, it is exciting to see Lindley consistently challenge deep coverage and it is obvious he is confident in his arm. More often than not, however, that confidence gets him in trouble.

Outlook: A favorite of NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, Lindley could be this year's T.J. Yates. He overthrows far too many vertical routes and lacks accuracy downfield, but Lindley has a short memory and an arm to build on.
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9. Brock Osweiler, Arizona State

Height/Weight: 6'7/242
College Experience: Third-year junior
40 Time: 4.94
Comparison: Andre Woodson
2010 Stats: 326-of-516 (63.2%) for 4,036 yds (7.82 YPA), 26 TD/13 INT; 3 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Bills, No. 71 overall

Positives/Negatives: Despite standing like a giant in the pocket, Osweiler possesses deceiving mobility and coordination in his lower body, but his low delivery limits his motion to that of a 6-foot-3 quarterback. Not only does Osweiler's release decimate his velocity, which is only adequate despite his size, his release point incredibly erratic. This inconsistent motion leads to poor placement, frequently forcing receivers to adjust their routes even on short or intermediate throws. Osweiler's movement in the pocket is not refined and he lacks an overall consistency to his game.
Outlook: Some believe Osweiler, a former basketball recruit, is a moldable athlete they can transform into a future starter. I don't buy it. It is not easy to completely rebuild a quarterback from the foundation, which Osweiler needs, even if they bring an extraordinary work ethic. At least the late first-round discussion has considerably died down. He's more of a mid- to late-round flier.

10. Nick Foles, Arizona

Height/Weight: 6'5/243
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
40 Time: 5.14
Comparison: Trent Edwards
2010 Stats: 387-of-560 (69.1%) for 4,334 yds (7.74 YPA), 28 TD/14 INT; 0 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Chargers, No. 183 overall

Positives/Negatives: A quarterback that has plenty of arm to test the field vertically, Foles lacks coordination throughout his game. To start, his feet and shoulders look like they are located on separate planes during his drop, and his wind-up release where he drops the ball to his shoulder is not any better. There are flashes of Foles wanting to work in the pocket, inching toward the line of scrimmage, but he always ends up firing a pass in a collapsed pocket. Like most quarterbacks, if the first option is open Foles can hit him, but even with the appropriate time he has to torque his shoulders on outside throws. Severely lacking touch, consistent accuracy, and coordination leaves Foles with an NFL projection of a deep reserve.

Outlook: Frequently, but appropriately, overlooked in the Pac 12, Foles will not have much to offer at the professional level. His movement is limited and his accuracy is adequate at best.

11. Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi - 6'2/219 ... Former walk-on ... Multi-year starter that broke many of Brett Favre's records ... Lacks velocity but mobile with sound accuracy ... Willing to work through progressions.

12. Aaron Corp, Richmond - 6'4/215 ... Transferred from USC after losing starting job to Matt Barkley ... Did not dominate FCS competition ... Thin frame with a suspect arm, but experienced and athletic.

13. Kellen Moore, Boise State - 6'0/197 ... Four-year starter and all-time FBS leader in wins... 142:28 career TD-to-INT ratio ... Could not cut the wind on sideline throws at the Senior Bowl; arm talent looked out of place.

14. G.J. Kinne, Tulsa - 6'2/235 ... Moves similarly to Jeff Garcia ... Confident in pocket with enough velocity but tremendously lacks accuracy past short throws ... Unorthodox style in terms of being off balance when releasing the ball.

15. John Brantley, Florida - 6'3/219 ... Severely overrated coming out of high school and underwhelmed at Florida ... Benched on multiple occasions in favor of sub-packages ... Wind-up release and drops the ball below shoulder, erratic accuracy.

Other QBs with an outside shot to be drafted: Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois), Case Keenum (Houston), Tyler Hansen (Colorado), Jordan Jefferson (LSU), Jacory Harris (Miami), Patrick Witt (Yale), Darron Thomas (Oregon), Dominique Davis (ECU).

 

[HacheMan]

Ike Davis among solid crew of 1B sleepers

A month ago, before fantasy baseball drafts really got going, it was easy to make the case that first base was a weaker position in fantasy than it had been in years. Third base certainly seemed deeper, with a strong top 10 and intriguing younger options, such as Mike Moustakas and Mat Gamel (he's eligible there!) bound for big things. At first base, after the obvious top guys, there seemed many more questions, and not just about Ryan Howard.

Now that the season has (thankfully) started, plenty has changed at what again appears to be a position of strength, one fantasy owners can count on. Here are first basemen I think we have to like more today than we did when spring training started, and most of these guys are really going to matter in the shallow leagues as well, in case you're drafting this weekend.


<offer>Kendrys Morales, Los Angeles Angels: Yeah, I believe. I wanted to see him hit. Check. I wanted to see if he could run to first base. Check. He doesn't need to actually play first base at all now that Albert Pujols has joined the team, but Morales, who hit .306 with 34 home runs in his last full season, is eligible there in fantasy. And Morales, who hasn't played in a big league game since early 2010 after his ankle exploded, looks so good that Angels manager Mike Scioscia plans to hit him cleanup against right-handers and lower in the order against lefties. Hey, who thought he'd even be playing? Take the over on 25 home runs and 450 at-bats and use him at corner infield.</offer>
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins: Call me an optimist, but perhaps not needing to play the field will help keep this former American League MVP and fantasy monster healthy as well. Morneau claims his concussion symptoms and wrist pain are in the past, and as colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft noted Wednesday in his spring wrap-up, Morneau hit really well in late March. I'm buying 130 games, and other than 2011, when he was clearly not himself, Morneau has always hit. He's among my top 15 first basemen, even as a regular designated hitter. We'll worry about his eligibility in 2013.
Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox: I've written about him enough, but he belongs in this conversation. I think he hits .240 with at least 25 home runs and 80 RBIs. If that sort of thing can help your team, go for it.Ike Davis, New York Mets: I got the fever, and the only prescription is drafting Davis! OK, not entirely true, but I saw enough of Davis this spring to be convinced he is not this year's Conor Jackson, someone whose season was obliterated because of Valley Fever. Davis homered in three consecutive games last week, and I refuse to bash Mets trainers for issues they've had in the past that some think will contribute to Davis struggling through his problem. Each player is different. Davis hit 19 home runs as a rookie. Last year he hit .302 with power before a fluky ankle injury ruined his season. When people talk up Freddie Freeman as a potential breakout, I include Davis there, fever or no fever.

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants: Surprise! I'm not totally optimistic on this one. I believe the Giants essentially succumbed to not only what was obvious -- that Belt can really hit -- but fan pressure as well, and that's why Belt made the team. I mean, the guy hit .378 with power this spring, and his upside versus what Aubrey Huff offers is ridiculous. Belt should be on fantasy radar screens right now. But if he doesn't hit in the next two weeks, he's not going to play because the Giants haven't truly bought in. He's not Morneau, someone with a legit track record. Belt hit .225 in 187 at-bats for the Giants last year. I can't rank him better than Morales, Morneau or 20 other first basemen until he proves he can hit big league pitching and the Giants prove their commitment. It looks as if Belt is platooning with Brett Pill, yet Belt, a lefty hitter, has been fine against lefty pitching in the past. Huff is also playing, and Nate Schierholtz and, believe it or not, Gregor Blanco are lurking and will see at-bats. Hope for the best, but prepare for a Giant mistake.

Mark Trumbo, Angels: It would sure be nice if he would take a walk once in a while, but his power is irrefutable. Now it appears his position change is set, too. He's playing third base. He's not Gold Glove-caliber there, but that's not your problem unless it costs him playing time. I think Trumbo will play enough this season -- subtract roughly 100 at-bats from last season -- to hit 25 home runs. With multiposition eligibility and hopefully a .250 batting average, he's worthy of standard league ownership. Like everyone else on this list above, I couldn't say that with confidence a month ago.Others for deeper leagues: Don't laugh, but Huff will knock in more than 80 runs. He's in better shape than 2011 and is going to play. … I wrote about Chris Parmelee of the Twins recently, and remain convinced he'll hit. I even added him in a standard league. … Jesus Guzman hit .312 in roughly a half-season for the San Diego Padres last season. The power wasn't there, but he stole nine bases, and he's playing left field while Carlos Quentin recuperates from knee surgery. I think first baseman Yonder Alonso will hit, but so will Guzman. There could be at-bats for both. … Jordan Pacheco of the Colorado Rockies is first-base eligible, but sharing third base with Chris Nelson. Neither has much power, but Pacheco seems relevant for batting average when the Rockies are at home. … The Pittsburgh Pirates gave Matt Hague a bench spot. A right-handed-hitting first baseman with moderate power, Hague hit seven spring home runs and could force his way into a platoon with Garrett Jones or Pedro Alvarez, neither of whom is exciting.

 

[HacheMan]

Yost Picks Broxton

It was revealed 18 days ago that Royals closer Manager Ned Yost revealed Thursday that it would be former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton that will open the season as the team’s stopper. Broxton gets the nod over Greg Holland, who was the Royals’ best reliever last season and in reality is probably their best option to close right now. But, managers love to have someone with closer experience, and Broxton fits the bill, having saved 84 games while in LA.



The problem, of course, is that while Broxton at one time was one of the most dominating closers in the game, he hasn’t been that way since 2009. The mammoth right-hander fell apart in the second half of 2010, and last season was a lost year for him, as he made just 14 appearances while dealing with elbow issues that eventually led to surgery.



Broxton did have a nice spring training, posting a 1.13 ERA and 11/4 K/BB ratio over eight innings. But, his velocity isn’t nearly what it once was, and we can’t count on him staying healthy. If you own Broxton, it would be wise to have Holland around as a backup plan.



For daily starter rankings, a constantly-updated closer report, exclusive live chats, a trade evaluator, pickup-of-the-day recommendations and much, much more, check out the MLB Season Pass.



Baker Exits Rehab Start



Twins right-hander Scott Baker was placed on the disabled list last week with tendinitis in his pitching elbow. On Thursday, he made his first minor league rehab start, but, unfortunately, that outing lasted all of 11 pitches.



Baker removed himself from the game, according to general manager Terry Ryan, because he "just didn’t feel right."



"Baker just didn’t feel right tonight," said Ryan. "He couldn’t seem to get loose on the mound and instead of pushing the envelope, we decided we would go get him out of the game. We will evaluate him again (Friday)."



We don’t want to speculate at this point on Baker’s status before we know how Friday’s exam goes, but there has to be some level of concern. The 30-year-old was limited to just four starts and two relief appearances after the All-Star break last year due to a strained flexor muscle, and he pitched just 4 2/3 innings this spring. Even if nothing is found wrong structurally with his elbow, we’d think the Twins might just shut him down for a while so things can calm down.



Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio reports that the Rangers are working towards inking two-time All-Star Ian Kinsler to a five-year contract extension. The team would exercise his $10 million option for next year as part of the deal and then give him approximately $14 million per season over the next five years, guaranteeing Kinsler a total of $80 million over the next six seasons.



It would be $8 million more than Dan Uggla received with his five-year extension last January, which is surely the deal the Rangers and Kinsler’s representatives have been working off of. While there’s certainly some risk involved in giving such a big deal to someone that has been injured often in his career, there’s no doubting that Kinsler is one of the best in the game at his position when healthy. He notched his second career 30/30 season in 2011 while playing in a career-high 155 games.



Also set to strike it rich is Brandon Phillips, who, according to Bowden, has been offered by the Reds a five-year extension “in the neighborhood" of $62.5 - $65 million. Unlike Kinsler, Phillips is currently slated for free agency after the season, so the Reds would need to lock him up sometime before the offseason to avoid him negotiating with other teams.



Unlike Kinsler, Phillips has been extremely durable for the Reds, playing in over 140 games in six straight seasons. But, he’s also a year older than Kinsler and isn’t quite as dynamic a talent when both players are healthy, which is probably why it looks like he’s not going to get as much money.



When the Reds inked Joey Votto to a monster 10-year, $225 million extension earlier this week, many assumed that meant Phillips would hit the open market, but apparently owner Bob Castellini is really ready to open up his wallet. The Phillips deal wouldn’t be as much of a risk simply because there’s way less money and years involved, but it would be another huge commitment for a team that’s never had a payroll higher than $81 million before this year.





National League Quick Hits: Andres Torres aggravated his left calf injury during the Mets’ opener Thursday and will need a stint on the disabled list. It’s unclear how long he’ll be out, but, given Torres’ injury history, we would think a longer than minimum stay is likely. Ruben Tejada will move into the leadoff spot while Torres is out … Clayton Kershaw tossed three shutout innings against the Padres Thursday, but he then left with a stomach bug. The good news is that he should be fine for his next start … Carlos Quentin was recently cleared to resume light swinging and remains on schedule to return sometime in the second half of April … Jed Lowrie hit soft toss and took swings off a tee Thursday with no pain in his sprained right thumb. He’s hoping to be in the lineup Friday for the Astros’ opener … Scott Linebrink has flown back to St. Louis to undergo an MRI on his sore right lat and is expected to need a DL stint. Victor Marte will have his contract purchased from Triple-A and take Linebrink’s spot in the bullpen … The Padres elected to place Tim Stauffer (triceps) on the DL after initially saying a move wouldn’t be needed. But, he felt fine after playing catch on Wednesday and should be ready by mid-April … John Lannan has requested a trade, but the Nats have no plans of moving him. They’ve received tepid interest, anyway … Drew Storen (elbow) will face live hitters in the next seven to 10 days before heading out on a rehab assignment. He should be back late this month … Bryan LaHair (back) sat out Thursday’s opener but is expected back over the weekend. Jeff Baker drew the start at first base … American League Quick Hits: Joey Devine (elbow) is scheduled to visit with Dr. James Andrews on Monday. The A’s suspect he’ll be fine, as manager Bob Melvin said Thursday that his understanding is that Devine's MRI didn't show any significant damage. It’s never a good sign when Andrews’ name is involved, though … Chris Perez blew his first save chance of the season Thursday, giving up three runs on three hits and two walks over just 2/3 of an inning before being pulled. Perez struggled down the stretch last year and dealt with an oblique injury this spring. It might be wise for his owners to pick up Vinnie Pestano as insurance … Michael Pineda (shoulder) felt fine after playing catch from a distance of 60 feet Thursday. Though he’s not in pain, Pineda’s velocity was down this spring, and the Yankees want to be sure he’s healthy before sticking him in the rotation … Victor Martinez had microfracture surgery in February and is scheduled to undergo ACL reconstructive knee surgery this week. He won’t play this year for the AL Central favorites … Al Albuquerque (elbow) was cleared to begin a throwing program Wednesday. He’ll play catch from a distance of 60 feet every other day for the next two weeks before eventually progressing to long toss. The hard-thrower is unlikely to join the Detroit bullpen until mid-July … Mike Adams could be sidelined several days with a left calf injury. The setup man was struck in the left calf by a line drive during an exhibition game Tuesday, suffering a contusion … Tyson Ross is likely to rejoin the A’s when a fifth starter is first needed on April 17. Ross was optioned to Triple-A Wednesday … The Rays have claimed left-hander John Gaub off waivers from the Cubs. Gaub will be assigned to Triple-A Durham … The Yankees claimed Cody Eppley off waivers from the Rangers. He’ll be assigned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.​

 

[HacheMan]

Cub Platoons a Bad Omen?

It is a pleasure to return for yet another season of fantasy baseball and the Week That Was. Thank you to all the loyal readers who have supported us over the years and to the good folks at Rotoworld for giving us the opportunity.

Good luck to all in their quest for fantasy baseball domination. Now on to the news of the week . . .



David DeJesus: The Cubs sat David DeJesus in favor of Reed Johnson against Nats LHP Gio Gonzalez. This is not good news for DeJesus owners. Those who thought double D just had an off year in Oakland and will rebound in the friendly confines should think again. DeJesus never really hit for power or stole a bunch of bases (he has never topped 13 dingers or 11 swipes). Now that he may sit against lefties, he is not likely to even put up strong run or rbi numbers. Sell while you can.



Ian Stewart: Sticking with the Cubbies, they also sat Ian Stewart in favor of Joe Mather for the Gio Gonzalez matchup. This is another ominous sign for Stewart. While many point to the fact that is just 27 had some pretty productive years for the Rockies, the smart fantasy player will see Stewart as a low average player cast off by a team without a real 3B and a player who reportedly will battle a wrist problem all year. The news that Stewart will sit again some or all lefties only further decreases his value. Sell him as soon as he hits a Wrigley homer or two.



Chad Billingsley: Chad Billingsley struck out 11 in 8 and 1/3 Friday night. Yes, it was the Padres and yes it was in Petco, but you have to admit it was a very strong outing. Many in the fantasy world have written Chad off after he, well, wasn’t good last year. However, this is a 27 year old pitcher who notched 550 strikeouts from '08-'10 with ERAs of 3.59, 3.15 and 4.04 in the process. Is he Lorenzo Cain: Lorenzo Cain had a tough start to his full time Royals career going 0-4 with 3K Friday night. Cain is a talent, there is no doubt about that. However, those ready to anoint him a roto god should recheck their research. Sure, he hit .312 in AAA last year, but also managed only 16 HR and 16 SB in almost 500 AB (plus, he was caught stealing 6 times despite swiping only 16 bags). Conclusion – it is far, far, far too early to expect Cain to go 20-20 or 20-30 when he did not do that on the farm. Plus, I think you have an average risk given his 100+ strikeouts at AAA last year. Keeper leaguers have a long term winner but for this year, it will be a bumpy ride. Just as this Yankee fan misses Melky, so will the Royals.



: Speaking of Melky, the Melkman delivered in his Giants debut going 2-5 with a dinger and 2 runs and rbi. Frankly, the Melky bashing just doesn’t make any sense to me. Last year in the predictable growth year, Melky hit .305 with 102 runs, 18 dingers and 20 swipes. There is not an owner in fantasy land that would reject those stats. Add in the fact that Melky is just 27, is already in his 8^th year in the majors and has played in the biggest pressure cooker in baseball (Yankee Stadium) and shown he can stand the heat in that kitchen, why would anyone expect a regression in this contract year? Buy with confidence!



Tout Wars 2012 AL Auction Review



Because there are not so many big or interesting stories from just a couple of days of baseball (I try to forget that 5am games in March in Japan count), I thought I would publish the last of the expert league draft reviews. Two weeks ago, Rick Wolf and I were privileged to participate in the Tout Wars AL auction at Sirius/XM studios. Tout Wars is one of the two most prestigious and closely watched expert leagues in fantasy baseball (the other being Sports Weekly’s League of Alternative Baseball Reality knows as “LABR”). Unlike LABR, which Rick and I have won three times, we have never been able to capture a Tout crown. Here are some highlights and lessons from that draft and an appraisal of our chances.




1. We did not dump batting average (or even try). In fact, we paid pretty heavily for two solid average guys once the top dogs were gone. After Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia all went beyond our 1b/2b budget, we rostered Billy Butler and Howie Kendrick at $25 each. Is there huge profit here? No. For Butler, did we lock in solid, reliable numbers with a solid average for a player still getting better on a team that should be much better offensively? Yes. For Kendrick, did we get a player in his prime at a scarce position who can only get better playing with Albert Pujols? You bet. Bargains are very rare when playing against the best players in the world. There is nothing wrong with rostering safe, reliable numbers. [yes, I know Butler is DH only, but he should get 5 games at 1b sometime this year and qualify – plus, given that tout has two dh spots, the risk of grabbing Billy was vastly reduced].



2. Contrary to popular belief, Ron Shandler did NOT make a mistake grabbing B.J. Upton at $33. No, I do not say this because Rick and I shouted $32 immediately before Ron won the bidding. Yes, Upton’s batting average has been known to turn people to stone if they stare at it. However, he is still just 27, is in his 9^th season in the bigs and posted 41 dingers and 78 swipes in the past two years – a power speed combo that is hard to beat. However, the biggest reason I think Ron made a solid buy is that Upton is in a contract year. I don’t always buy into this concept but I do for a player who is either often on the bench hurt or who is deemed hard to coach. Contract years are when those players play through pain or lock in on the advice of those seeking to help. I predict a big year. For reference, see Reyes, Jose circa 2011 and his first batting title.



3. Pitching was cheaper than it should have been. This year, our team will be anchored by a $25 King Felix and a $17 Josh Beckett. We should see 400 Ks for that $42 and that ain’t half bad.



4. Best Buy of the Entire Draft: Jeff Erickson rostering Dan Haren at $22. Haren went for $27 at LABR and he is worth more. Nicely done Jeff.



5. How will we do this year? Well, we need a few good breaks. We need the $3 pitchers Tom Milone and Carl Pavano to provide the solid ratios that will support rather than detract from our studs. Milone has the minor league track record and a good park in Oakland to support this and Pavano came through as recently as 2010. We also need our young outfielders to take their game to the next level. Austin Jackson and Adam Jones are still on the upswing. If this year is the big jump year, look out.



No matter how the standings look in October, it was a blast drafting with the Touts. That said, without his majesty Jason Grey, arguably the best fantasy baseball manager on the planet and now a full time scout for the Rays, there is something missing. Jason, we miss you!



And last and but not least, the baron of the bottom of the page returns for another year -- Schultz says: “If an Opening Day happens and no one is awake to enjoy it, does it still count as Opening Day? Is it truly OPENING DAY, when only two teams play on a Wednesday night? What about a staggered start that has the other teams leaving the gate over the course of three days like it’s the New York Marathon? Leaving hockey out of the discussion because I don't pay attention to it, baseball seems to be the only sport that refuses to gather all its teams together on one day and drop the flag. (Yes, go figure, no hockey knowledge but I know how to start a NASCAR race). For the millions and millions of The Rock's fans - whoops, wrong fantasy sport, correction - the hundreds of thousands of rotisserie baseball junkies, MLB refuses to give us the quick fix to start the season, doling out the good stuff like they are working a corner on The Wire. Fortunately, that all comes to an end this weekend with full slates of games for the near future. For the hordes that are anxious to see the genius of their drafts and auctions come to fruition, this can't get started soon enough.


In the opening salvo, Mariano Rivera, Jose Valverde and Chris Perez all came out of the gate with frighteningly terrible efforts. Despite the equally atrocious performances, the buzzards only seem to be circling around Lake Erie with everyone acting out the home version of the Hunger Games trying to get Vinnie Pestano onto their roster. Pure Rage may not have the same resume of Rivera and Valverde (an admitted grand understatement when it comes to Rivera) but that doesn't mean he's on any tighter of a leash. Major league managers tend not to be as over reactive as their fantasy counterparts and one bad outing surely won't cost a closer their job. Now, this doesn't mean Perez owners shouldn't be worried: in addition to exhibiting no control whatsoever with any of his pitches, the Cleveland closer's fastball was measured in the low 90s as opposed to the mid-90s. Whether Perez' terrible outing can be attributed to the cold (it was near freezing in Cleveland), his limited work in spring training (the dreaded oblique injury) or just a bad day at the ballpark, Manny Acta isn't going to bail on him so quickly. However, it would be an ostrich's folly not to keep an eye on this situation. The fact that the job is Perez' to lose doesn't mean that it can't be lost.”

<tt> </tt>

Response: Welcome back Schultzie and yes, you are right. Opening in Japan is good only if you live in Japan! You are also right that panic is not any better in fantasy baseball than in any other aspect of life. Will Perez lose his job? Yes, eventually but not soon. He will either be replaced by Pestano if he is ineffective or traded to a contender in July if he is effective. However, he should net 15+ very valuable saves this year. Saves that could mean 5-6 points in the standings.

 

[HacheMan]

Cubs rotation doing well; hitters aren't

Eric Karabell

The Chicago Cubs are 1-2, but with a few timely hits, they easily could be entering Monday's home game with the Milwaukee Brewers on ESPN and ESPN3 undefeated. Cubs starting pitchers certainly got it done the first weekend, as Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija each delivered quality starts, combining to post a 1.61 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched. The offense didn't help much, batting .224 with nary a home run, but hey, it's early.

The Cubs probably aren't National League Central contenders, but there are a number of positives coming out of this weekend, for both fantasy owners and Cubs fans, so let's note them.


<offer>The rotation: A year ago, Cubs starting pitchers posted a 4.79 ERA, worst in the National League and third-worst in the majors (ahead of the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles). One weekend against the Washington Nationals doesn't tell us much, but Dempster fanned 10 in his Thursday outing, reminding us he has averaged 190 whiffs over the past four seasons. That ranks 12th in baseball in that time. Garza comes off his best season, which included 197 strikeouts, and Samardzija was basically a new pitcher in spring training, and he brought that spring success into Sunday, a game he nearly completed.</offer>
Samardzija led all big league relief pitchers in walks last season with 50, edging Cubs closer Carlos Marmol, but on Sunday the right-hander from Notre Dame struck out eight and issued no free passes. It was impressive, just like his 20 spring innings (16 strikeouts, just one walk) were. It remains too early to pronounce Samardzija as safe in standard mixed leagues, but there's certainly upside here. Let's see if former Florida Marlins right-hander Chris Volstad can continue the string Monday night. It's very possible he will; in his career, the 6-foot-8 ground ball specialist boasts a 1.71 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in four starts against the Brewers.
The star player: Look at the team's lineup, and it's pretty easy to find the superstar. Shortstop Starlin Castro, a mere 22 years old and coming off an NL-leading 207-hit season, doubled in a run Sunday and scored two. He's 5-for-13 so far out of the No. 3 lineup spot. However, the impressive thing is his stolen bases. Castro swiped two bases on Saturday and again on Sunday, stealing second base and third base in each game off beleaguered Nats catcher Wilson Ramos. Last season Castro stole 22 bases in 31 attempts, hardly a strong rate, but he's perfect so far. Castro also attempted a mere three steals in his 42 starts as the No. 3 hitter in 2011, a figure he has topped in three games already. Bottom line: Castro has the speed to keep doing this. He's owned in every league, but those thinking he could be in line for 30 stolen bases should see if they can pry him away from an owner who feels this simply is an aberrant start.
The future closer: OK, so it wasn't an impressive weekend for Marmol or setup man Kerry Wood. Marmol closed out Samardzija's win Sunday, but not without issuing another one of his signature walks. On Saturday, Marmol was summoned with men on base -- that didn't seem to be a wise move by manager Dale Sveum -- and gave up two hits and two walks in an ugly blown save. He didn't retire a hitter that day. He remains the closer despite a 20.25 ERA, but he and Wood are certainly in danger of losing their roles or being traded to contenders desperate for any kind of help, even this kind. Wood allowed three hits, three walks and three runs while retiring three hitters Thursday and Saturday. Anyway, while it's never wise to pay attention to saves in spring training because secure closers often pitch in the middle innings, right-hander Rafael Dolis did seem to earn a pending late-inning role by allowing only three hits in his 10 innings of work, including three saves. Sure, right-hander Alberto Cabrera, now in Double-A, also saved three games, but Dolis did save 17 games for Double-A Tennessee in 2011 (though his 35 walks versus 48 strikeouts were hardly impressive). For now, it's Dolis, fresh off his trouble-free inning Saturday and the organization's No. 7 prospect ranking by Baseball America, who seems a legit sleeper for saves.
Other Cubs thoughts: Bryan LaHair and his sore back were spared from facing Stephen Strasburg and lefty Gio Gonzalez the first two games, but on Sunday he started against Jordan Zimmermann and smacked a pair of doubles. I remained intrigued by the Triple-A slugger -- he mashed 38 home runs for Triple-A Iowa in 2011 -- despite a poor spring. His job appears to be secure against right-handed pitching for now. I'd still want him in deep leagues. … By the way, first-base prospect Anthony Rizzo started off hot at Iowa, with five hits in his first 12 at-bats, plus three RBIs and a stolen base. I don't expect him in the majors until the second half, though. … Third baseman Ian Stewart isn't a great bet to improve his career .236 batting average after leaving the friendlier confines of Coors Field, but he just missed a game-tying, ninth-inning home run against Brad Lidge on Friday. I could see 20 home runs from Stewart this year. … If the Cubs need relief help, it's likely Casey Coleman will be summoned from the minors, but keep an eye on former Rockies closer Manny Corpas. The right-hander did not pitch in the majors last season, but he has 34 career saves. He's nothing special, but in this bullpen opportunity could come.As for the Brewers, watch starter Shaun Marcum, since he battled shoulder pain in March, and returning to Wrigley Field is third baseman Aramis Ramirez. The fantasy knock on him for this season was he didn't hit much in road games, but Monday he's back at his former home!

 

[HacheMan]

Beantown Blowup

They’re only three games into the season, but the Red Sox are already missing injured closer The team’s top two options for the ninth inning, Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon, both blew save chances Sunday in spectacular fashion. Manager Bobby Valentine’s hand-picked closer, Aceves gave up three runs in the ninth without recording an out, capped off by a Miguel Cabrera bomb to tie the game. Not to be outdone, Melancon allowed a sac fly and then a two-run, walk-off bomb to Alex Avila in the 11^th inning.



Collectively, Aceves and Melancon now sport a 63.00 ERA and 9.00 WHIP over four appearances. They’ve only been able to record three total outs.



So what now for the BoSox? Well, we don’t know yet, and neither does Valentine.



He downplayed the situation after Sunday’s game, telling reporters, "We're trying to figure out what to do. We'll keep it a work in progress. We're three games into this thing.'' Valentine did add that Daniel Bard “might be” an option to close, but we doubt they’ll make that move so soon after steadfastly committing to him as a starter. The best bet is that Aceves will get another shot, but we can’t rule out Franklin Morales or Hector Santiago earned his first major league save in Saturday's victory over the Rangers. And, given that The Rays placed Kyle Farnsworth on the DL before the season, and most figured it would be Joel Peralta that would handle the ninth inning in his absence. After all, Peralta more than held his own in the role last season when The Farns was on the shelf. But, it’s been Doug Fister’s first outing of the season was off to a fine start, as he had held the Red Sox scoreless over 3 2/3 innings while striking out three. But, then he felt a grab in his left side on a pitch to It turns out that he suffered a left costochondral strain, which is when the rib separates too much from the sternum. Fister has been placed on the DL, and the Tigers will not provide a timetable for his return until he’s pain-free. But, if you’re gambler, bet on over the minimum 15 days.

​

So who will replace Fister in the rotation? Well, the Tigers don’t know that yet, either. The logical choice would be

Duane Below, but they seem to like what he can bring as a long reliever. It could be Andrew Oliver or Casey Crosby, two pitchers that lost out to Drew Smyly in the competition to be the team’s No. 5 starter. Both Oliver and Crosby are intriguing because they’re lefties that can throw in the mid-90s. But, they’ve also both had control issues and it’s likely neither one of them are ready to get outs consistently. Top prospect National League Quick Hits: Jon Niese made a run at becoming the first Mets pitcher in history to throw a no-hitter Sunday, getting through six innings unscathed. He actually wound up giving up four runs – two earned – before all was said and done, but it was still a nice first outing in what could be a breakthrough year for the lefty … Pirates GM Neal Huntington thinks A.J. Burnett (eye) is likely to rejoin the Pirates rotation "before the month is over." It would be a much quicker-than-expected return after Huntington originally expected to be without the righty until June … Drew Pomeranz will be held to an unspecified innings limit this season. He threw 119 1/3 frames last year, so we doubt the Rox take him past 160 innings this year … Justin Maxwell was claimed off waivers by the Astros. He’ll probably get a chance at some playing time, and he does have some pop and speed … Dustin Moseley was placed on the DL with a strained shoulder. We don’t know how long he’ll be out yet, but it will surely be more than 15 days. Anthony Bass, Micah Owings and Joe Wieland are options to take his spot ... Carlos Monasterios was released by the Dodgers following another elbow surgery… Nats prospect Anthony Rendon suffered a bad ankle sprain Saturday and is out indefinitely … Brian Tallet was traded by the Pirates to the Padres, as the Pads wanted some left-handed relief depth in the minors … Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez confirmed that Chipper Jones would be ready to return from the DL this week, possibly earlier than the original target date of April 13 … Corey Hart barely had any exhibition at-bats, but he hasn’t been rusty, banging out three homers in the opening series against the Cardinals … Though he wound up allowing three runs over 5 2/3 innings, American League Quick Hits: Niese wasn’t the only one to carry a no-hitter for a while Sunday, as Jason Hammel bested him, getting through seven frames untouched before Justin Morneau led off the eighth with a double. Hammel allowed just one run on two hits in eight innings and will probably be a popular waiver wire add. You should stay away, though. … B.J. Upton (back) will begin a rehab assignment Monday with High-A Charlotte and is expected to return for the April 20-22 series against the Twins. He’s dealt with a back ailment since mid-March … Liam Hendriks (food poisoning) won’t be released from the hospital until Monday. He could be healthy enough to take his next turn in the rotation, but Anthony Swarzak pitched pretty well in his place, and it’s possible the Twins just stick with him … Humberto Quintero will start three of every five games behind the plate for the Royals, as he’s been assigned Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez and Danny Duffy, while Brayan Pena will be back there when it's Bruce Chen and Luis Mendoza … Tsuyoshi Wada (elbow) could be ready to rejoin the Orioles around April 24, but it’s not clear whether it will be as a reliever or starter. It will depend on how he's throwing and how the rotation has fared to that point … Yoenis Cespedes has showed early on that his power is for real, homering for the third straight game Saturday. He’s struck out in over half his at-bats, so Cespedes could get exposed eventually, but he might also be a 30-homer bat … Felix Hernandez struggled in his second start of the season Saturday, and his velocity continues to be down. We’re not overly concerned yet, but keep an eye on the radar gun in his next few starts … Ubaldo Jimenez has dropped an appeal of his five-game suspension, but not before he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning Saturday. His next outing will come on April 14 … The Mark Trumbo experiment at third base isn’t going well, as he made his third error Sunday in two starts. He should play there enough to gain positional eligibility, but don’t count on him staying there over the long haul.​

 

[HacheMan]

Re-ranking The Relievers
We're only a few days in, but it seems like there's plenty of material for the first Strike Zone of the year. Let's start things off by re-ranking the relievers.

I'm listing the relievers in their new order, with the preseason order following. The guys with asterisks in front of their names are NOT currently closers.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Atl) - 1
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Phi) - 2
3. Mariano Rivera (NYY) - 3
4. John Axford (Mil) - 4
5. Jason Motte (StL) - 5
6. Joel Hanrahan (Pit) - 6
7. Heath Bell (Mia) - 7
8. Drew Storen (Was) - 9
9. Sergio Santos (Tor) - 8
10. Jordan Walden (LAA) - 10
11. Jose Valverde (Det) - 12
12. *Kenley Jansen (LAD) - 11
13. J.J. Putz (Ari) - 14
14. Brian Wilson (SF) - 13
15. Brandon League (Sea) - 15
16. Sean Marshall (Cin) - 16
17. Joe Nathan (Tex) - 17
18. Huston Street(SD) - 18
19. Rafael Betancourt (Col) - 21
20. *Addison Reed (CWS) - 20
21. Alfredo Aceves (Bos) - 23
22. Carlos Marmol (ChC) - 19
23. Kyle Farnsworth (TB) - 22
24. Jim Johnson (Bal) - 25
25. Matt Capps (Min) - 24
26. Brett Myers (Hou) - 26
27. *Aroldis Chapman (Cin) - 27
28. *Greg Holland (KC) - 28
29. Frank Francisco (NYM) - 30
30. Grant Balfour (Oak) - 31
31. Jonathan Broxton (KC) - 32
32. *Vinnie Pestano (Cle) - 35
33. Chris Perez (Cle) - 29
34. Javy Guerra (LAD) - 37
35. Hector Santiago (CWS) - 177
36. *Mark Melancon (Bos) - 33
37. *Tyler Clippard (Was) - 34
38. *Matt Thornton (CWS) - 36
39. *Mike Adams (Tex) - 38
40. *Jonny Venters (Atl) - 39

Addressing a few of these situations:

White Sox - Everyone thought there was a decent chance the White Sox would open up with a rookie in the closer's role, but it's turned out to be Santiago, not Addison Reed. I'm not so optimistic about the choice. Santiago spent 2 1/2 years in high-A ball before graduating to Double-A last summer. He never had an ERA under 3.50 in any of those stops, and he's now in the majors without ever having pitched in Triple-A. He is pretty interesting, what with the rarely seen screwball and a fastball in the 92-96 mph range, but he should prove inferior to Reed as time goes on.

Dodgers - Guerra has looked strong right since the beginning of the spring, so my hopes of a quick move to Jansen in the closer's role are fading. Still, it's a long season, and Jansen is so talented that he could well finish the year as a top-30 reliever while serving as a setup man the whole way through. I don't think it will come to that, though.

Indians - I'm taking the chance and moving Pestano ahead of Perez now, even though Pestano gave up a go-ahead homer in Saturday's game. Apart from the facial hair, Perez just doesn't look like a closer at the moment. His velocity is down again, and the Blue Jays were all over him. Pestano may well get the job soon.

Cubs - Marmol and Kerry Wood were sporting identical 27.00 ERAs and 6.00 WHIPs, with both having taken a loss and a blown save through two games. Marmol, though, was able to get one out for a save on Sunday. The Cubs may have no choice but to pull Marmol from the closer's role if he continues to struggle this week, even though they have no legitimate fallback with Wood performing just as terribly. They'd probably try to get by with a committee of Wood and James Russell if they did make the move, but Rafael Dolis is now a legitimate sleeper. I don't think he's ready yet, but he does have closer-type stuff with his mid-90s fastball and slider.

Rays - Fernando Rodney has recorded five outs this season and already has a win and two saves. Joel Peralta looked like the favorite for saves with Kyle Farnsworth out 4-6 weeks with an elbow strain, but now it will probably be Rodney's job until he blows one.

Red Sox - Aceves' weekend was an obvious disaster, with Melancon faring little better. I think Aceves will bounce back, and I trust him quite a bit more than Melancon at the moment. The Red Sox will be under pressure to move Daniel Bard back to the pen if things continue on like this, but it's hard to imagine them making the switch in April. Maybe come May if Bard is struggling to settle in as a starter.

On to the rest of my week one thoughts:

- The velocity readings of both Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum have been pretty scary. Hernandez, who was pushed back to Saturday after originally being scheduled to start Seattle's first game in Oakland, topped out at 93 mph versus the A's and was typically at 89-92 mph. Last year, he averaged 93.4 mph with his fastball, which was down from 94.4 mph in his stellar 2010 season. Lincecum averaged 90 mph with his fastball on Opening Day, down from 92.3 mph last year.

Now those are just one start in both cases. But Hernandez's velocity was similarly down in Japan, and Lincecum's was noticeably down all spring. If it was just one of those occasional spring training dead-arm situations, they should both be bouncing back now.

I'm not panicking in either case. Again, it is early April, not mid-June. Also, both Hernandez and Lincecum are talented enough to succeed with diminished fastballs. Still, I am concerned, particularly with Lincecum. I certainly wouldn't give them away, but I'd trade either pitcher for Zack Greinke right now and consider myself fortunate to have made the swap.

- I remain skeptical that Yoenis Cespedes will hit for average this year, but that is some pretty remarkable power he possesses. My projection called for a .248 average, 20 homers and 72 RBI in 521 at-bats, but now it seems like a good bet that he'll get to at least 25 homers and maybe 85 RBI with the A's already moving him into the cleanup spot.

- Fellow Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo hasn't been so impressive. Watching him this spring, I think he might prove overmatched by tough right-handers as a regular for the White Sox. The team should stick with him -- it's a rebuilding year and it's worth finding out if he can improve -- but manager Robin Ventura's best lineup right now would have Kosuke Fukudome starting over him versus righties.

- Three games in for the Reds and Chris Heisey and Devin Mesoraco have started one game apiece. It was a given that Mesoraco would receive this kind of treatment -- the plan always appeared to be for Ryan Hanigan to get the majority of the starts early on -- but it's troubling that Heisey is taking a backseat to Ryan Ludwick so soon. While it's one thing to go with the hot hand, if Dusty Baker wants to keep alternating left fielders, it's less likely that either will ever get on much of a roll. Heisey deserves a long look, but at the same time, it's entirely possible that Ludwick will prove to be the better option for Cincinnati. It's just that we'll never know for sure if Heisey plays two or three times per week. Obviously, Heisey isn't worth playing in mixed leagues right now.

- Both Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel were very impressive in their first starts against the Twins, but I can never be too optimistic when it comes to Orioles starters; it's just so hard to amass value pitching in Camden Yards and too often facing the AL East powerhouses. There were promising signs: Arrieta showed improved fastball command in his outing and Hammel is back looking like the pitcher he was in 2009-10, as opposed to the guy with diminished stuff last year. I wouldn't try either in a mixed league, but they are worth running out there in AL-only leagues for now.

- I'm not giving up on Colby Rasmus for the year yet, but he is completely lost at the plate right now and needs to be benched in mixed leagues. The Jays will likely keep batting him ninth most of the time and they may sit him in favor of Rajai Davis against lefties.

- If the Diamondbacks decide to pull Josh Collmenter from the rotation this month -- and with the way he's throwing right now, it's a definite possibility -- I imagine they'd probably go to Wade Miley before trying a prospect from the group of Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs. Bauer, who allowed two hits and struck out seven in five scoreless innings in his first Double-A start, could make an impact right away if the Diamondbacks let him, but I doubt they have any intention of bringing him up before June.

 

[HacheMan]

Don't overreact to velocity issues

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Hope isn't the only thing that springs eternal. So, too, do creative explanations for why your starting pitchers are failing to live up to expectations.

Judging by the early returns, diminished fastball velocity is the in-vogue worry of 2012, and perhaps it's all Michael Pineda's fault: The New York Yankees right-hander faced questions about diminished velocity all spring before succumbing to a shoulder injury near the end of the exhibition season. Pineda's example demonstrates the worst-case scenario, and worst-case scenarios breed fear in owners of other pitchers facing similar questions.


Most notably, now it's Felix Hernandez facing the velocity question from some of his owners looking for the nearest bridge. Or … perhaps Bridge of Death from "Monty Python and the Holy Grail"? It's like Hernandez, and his owners, are approaching the Old Man from Scene 24, preparing to be asked the Five … er … Three Questions:


What is your name?


"It is Felix Hernandez, ace of the Seattle Mariners."


What is your quest?


"To win the American League's Cy Young Award."


What is the air-speed velocity of one of your April fastballs?


"What? I don't know that! Auuuuuuuugh!" And with that, the hopes of your fantasy team are cast into the Gorge of Eternal Peril.


The reason for this comic approach is that questions about Hernandez's, or others', velocity tend to be more comical than tragic. Yes, comedies can in time transform into tragedies, but there are obvious rationales for not reading too much into Hernandez's -- or others' -- diminished fastball velocity at this early point in the season: the precariously small sample size of those statistics, or the fact that his 0.98 WHIP and 8.16 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio remain within range of his career numbers in those categories (1.22 and 8.19).


The deeper rationales are that sometimes the bizarre phenomenon known as the "dead-arm period" could be responsible for lost velocity, and the truth is that most pitchers tend to suffer in terms of velocity in the season's opening weeks. The chart below demonstrates the league's tendency to improve in terms of average fastball velocity, by month, over the course of a given season:



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Year</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Apr</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>May</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>June</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>July</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Aug</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Sept</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2009</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">90.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">90.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2010</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">90.8</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.0</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2011</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">90.9</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.6</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.7</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">91.6</td></tr></tbody></table>




Those March/April numbers are noticeably low, easily the worst in any single month, and while you might claim that less than a half-mile per hour difference between those April and May numbers is small, remember those numbers were accrued over several hundred thousand fastballs per year, and more than 50,000 per month. That's one monstrous, whopping sample, and it shows that in "blanket statement" form, there might indeed be something to the dead-arm theory.


Effectively, if you're someone willing to make such a blanket statement as, "This pitcher's velocity is down, so let's panic, panic, panic," the statistics above provide the perfect such counterargument, "All pitchers throw slower in April than during the midsummer months, so it's too early to condemn them."


Let that keep you several steps back from the ledge … er … Gorge.


Of course, blanket statements are bad, as they lump pitchers of differing styles in one sum, and there's sometimes merit to the individual examples. Hernandez's is a valid question, as are those surrounding other starters, but Hernandez's owners shouldn't be so quick to criticize without putting his numbers into context.

Hernandez averaged 91.0 mph with his fastball during his April 7 start, his lowest single-start average since 2009, the first season ESPN's pitch-tracking data charted. Unfortunately, data wasn't available for his March 28 masterpiece in Japan; we only have reports from the Mariners' official website that he was generally throwing 89-90 mph in that game. Those are legitimately lower velocities than the 94.0 (2009), 93.9 (2010) and 93.2 (2011) he averaged the past three complete seasons, but in his defense, he's a pitcher who shed 15 pounds this winter and might yet be adapting to the physical change, not to mention that during his 2010 Cy Young campaign, he had a 91.9 average fastball velocity during his April 10 start, which was his second such assignment of that season.


Those don't take Hernandez completely off the hook -- he absolutely belongs on a "watch closely" list -- but they support the notion that this isn't the first time he has been throwing a bit softer than usual during his career. Take them too seriously and you might find yourself the unfortunate victim of a sell-low trade.


Scouring other first-start-of-2012 statistics -- and let's state upfront how minuscule a one-start sample is -- here are the six other regular starting pitchers who, after averaging at least 91 mph with their fastballs in all of 2011, suffered at least a 2 mph drop in velocity in their 2012 debuts:



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. Prev Rank refers to Tristan's preseason ranks, which were only 75 deep.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rank </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rank </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Daniel Hudson, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Garza, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Beachy, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cory Luebke, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jhoulys Chacin, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jaime Garcia, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Danks, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neftali Feliz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Masterson, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Daniel Bard, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Nolasco, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Carpenter, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Lewis, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clay Buchholz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jair Jurrjens, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Pineda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Liriano, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Zambrano, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Juan Nicasio, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luke Hochevar, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Leake, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Niemann, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Henderson Alvarez, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Arrieta, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Sanchez, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Randy Wolf, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Baker, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edinson Volquez, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dillon Gee, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Buehrle, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian Matusz, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Duffy, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Stauffer, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Clayton Kershaw (93.3 mph average in 2011, 89.2 in 2012 debut): He's the epitome of why you shouldn't overreact to velocity readings. Kershaw's 89.2 mph average was easily his lowest since 2009. He was also battling stomach flu. You try pitching through that. He gets a free pass.


Tommy Hanson (91.1 mph average in 2011, 88.7 in 2012 debut): His might be the most bothersome example of any because of the continuing questions about his long-term health. Hanson missed effectively the final two months of 2011 with a shoulder injury and made only three spring starts after recovering from the problem. And now his fastball is noticeably slower. Again, it's one start, but let that fact temper your enthusiasm following what was a statistically impressive 2012 debut. It might support him being more sell-high than bounce-back candidate. Bingo, he's on the "watch closely" list.


Tim Lincecum (92.2 mph average in 2011, 90.0 in 2012 debut): We've heard the commentary about Lincecum's diminishing velocities before, and his corresponding drop in strikeout rate. In his defense, four times since 2009 he averaged a lower number than he did on April 6, and in four of his first eight starts of 2010 he averaged beneath 91 mph. In that 2010 season he managed a 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.79 K's-per-nine ratio, excellent albeit not peak-level Lincecum numbers. Ultimately, if on draft day you still regarded Lincecum as a clone of his 2008-09 self, you now have your evidence that it was a mistake. It should've been clear even then, however, that while still good, he's at least a small step beneath the pitcher he was during those two seasons.


Ricky Romero (92.0 mph average in 2011, 89.9 in 2012 debut): His performance ran counter to what had been a previous pattern of hot starts -- he threw a quality start in each of his past three season debuts -- but diminished velocity isn't necessarily something new for Romero. During his first outing of 2010, he averaged 89.8 mph with his fastball, so he warrants patience.


Ubaldo Jimenez (93.2 mph average in 2011, 91.1 in 2012 debut): Let's first point out that Jimenez's velocity over the 2011 season was beneath his usual standard, but so far he's following last year's pattern precisely, his 91.1 mph average identical to his number during his regular-season debut a year ago. Jimenez's 2011 was disappointing, so it'd be understandable if that bothered you. But if you invested in him on draft day, one start of identical performance to last season shouldn't be radically altering your expectations.


Josh Beckett (92.9 mph average in 2011, 90.8 in 2012 debut): What's particularly bothersome about Beckett's velocity drop wasn't the home runs that resulted, it's that he already suffered a noticeable drop in velocity at an earlier stage of his career and had to adjust his pitching style accordingly. If it's necessary, will he be able to do it a second time? In his defense, he averaged 91.9 mph with his fastball during his 2011 debut, and that was his second-lowest average velocity of the season, so maybe he's a classic dead-arm example. But Beckett also warrants putting on the "watch closely" list.


Streamer's delight



With the increasing interest in head-to-head play, and with it the streaming-starters strategy, I'm adding the "Streamer's delight" section to both 60 Feet, 6 Inches as well as the weekly Forecaster column to provide multiple midweek updates, both to the picks themselves and their results.


Past picksThursday, April 5, Erik Bedard: QS, 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Friday, April 6, Jake Arrieta: W, QS, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Saturday, April 7, Chris Capuano: 4 2/3 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
Sunday, April 8, Juan Nicasio: QS, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Monday, April 9, Tommy Milone: W, QS, 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 0 K



Week's total: 5 GS, 2 W (40.0%), 4 QS (80.0%), 33 2/3 IP, 18 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 16 K, 1.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
Season total: 5 GS, 2 W (40.0%), 4 QS (80.0%), 33 2/3 IP, 18 H, 6 ER, 12 BB, 16 K, 1.60 ERA, 0.89 WHIP


Upcoming picksTuesday, April 10: Philip Humber at Cleveland Indians
Wednesday, April 11: Erik Bedard at Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, April 12: Chris Capuano versus Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, April 13: Bartolo Colon at Seattle Mariners
Saturday, April 14: Carlos Zambrano versus Houston Astros
Sunday, April 15: Henderson Alvarez versus Baltimore Orioles
Monday, April 16: Freddy Garcia versus Minnesota Twins


Three up



Erik Bedard, Pittsburgh Pirates: The question about Bedard is not about his performance, it is -- and really always has been -- about his health. Consider that in 25 starts since the beginning of 2011, his first year after missing the entire 2010 season recovering from shoulder surgery, he has a 3.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.52 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio, numbers that can rival those of any starter in the 40-50 range. Bedard hasn't faced any sort of injury questions so far this season, and the right time to own him -- and claim his most valuable statistics -- is during the times he's healthiest. In other words, he's not a matchups type, he's a pick-up-and-enjoy type, albeit one for whom you'll likely need a contingency plan. After all, the guy does have nine disabled list stints on his career résumé.


Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals: Lohse's 2012 debut was a memorable one, partly because he did it on the national stage, during the Wednesday night opener at the new Marlins Park. It made him a popular pickup, and with good reason, but haven't we experienced this song and dance before? For a second consecutive spring training he was outstanding, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six Grapefruit League starts; remember that in 2011 he had 1.88/0.88 numbers in five spring turns. Lohse extended that performance into the early stages of the regular season last year; he had a 7-2 record, 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his 11 starts through May. In other words, enjoy this, because Lohse can contribute, albeit perhaps only in the short term. After all, he was 7-6 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his final 19 starts of 2011, numbers that dropped him beneath mixed-league usefulness.


Jonathon Niese, New York Mets: This Sabermetric darling produced one of the most relevant storylines of the Mets' scorching-hot start, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his 2012 debut and finishing with six innings of two-hit, seven-strikeout baseball versus the Atlanta Braves. As he did a year ago, Niese continued to generate strikeouts and ground outs, his keys to success; of the 18 outs he recorded, nine were ground outs and seven were K's. Forgive him the four runs (three earned) he surrendered, because all came in the seventh, a point at which he might have been more tired than he'd be midseason. This might be your final chance to get a sneaky, low-end contender for the top 50 starters of 2012.

 

[HacheMan]

Darvish Survives Shaky Debut

It was easy to get carried away with the hype surrounding Yu Darvish, especially after he showed his electric stuff against major league hitters this spring while posting a solid 3.60 ERA and 21/8 K/BB ratio over 15 innings. But we were reminded Monday night that he is indeed human.

Darvish showed some nerves in his major league debut against the Mariners, giving up five runs on eight hits and four walks over 5 2/3 innings. He appeared to be on the ropes in the first inning, throwing 42 pitches while allowing four runs on four hits and three walks. However, he bounced back quite nicely from there, even retiring 10 batters in a row at one point. The Japanese right-hander walked Dustin Ackley and gave up a single to Ichiro Suzuki with two outs in the sixth before being pulled after 110 pitches.

While Darvish's debut was a mixed bag, he showed good movement on his assortment of pitches and averaged right around 93 mph on his fastball. The Rangers' offense also pounded out 11 runs on 12 hits to give him his first major league victory.

Considering that Darvish looked much better as the game moved along, it's fair to expect better results with the distractions and expectations of his major league start in the rear view mirror. He still carries ace-potential and has a good chance to begin proving it this weekend against the Twins.

Matusz Labors Through Season Debut

Remember all the optimism with Brian Matusz during spring training? Yeah, well, maybe we should tone it down a little. At least for now.

Matusz really struggled in his season debut Monday night against the Yankees, allowing four runs on six hits and four walks over four innings. He registered just one strikeout and threw only 52 out of 96 pitches for strikes. The good news was that he averaged 90.32 mph on his fastball (up a couple ticks from where he was last year), but he just didn't seem to have any real feel for the strike zone.

Pitching against the Yankees is a challenge even for the most accomplished of pitchers, so it's probably too soon to panic. But after Matusz posted an obscene 10.69 ERA over 49 2/3 innings last year, the Orioles probably wouldn't hesitate sending him down to the minors if he struggles through the first month of the season. Have some patience in AL-only leagues, but those in mixed formats likely have better options at their disposal.

Troubling News For Storen

We probably won't see Nationals' closer Drew Storen on a major league mound any time soon. The 24-year-old right-hander is scheduled to visit with Dr. James Andrews on Tuesday after feeling some tenderness in his elbow during a simulated game on Sunday.

While the Nationals don't believe Storen has any ligament damage in the elbow (decreases the likelihood of Tommy John surgery), they fear that he could be dealing with a bone chip or loose bodies. Still, any procedure on the elbow would likely put him on the shelf for a large chunk of the season.

The Nationals are expected to move forward with Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez splitting save chances. They should both be owned in all leagues at this point, but given Lidge's own health issues over the past couple of seasons, Rodriguez is the one I would grab. Even though he gave up the game-winning hit on Monday night against the Mets, the hard-throwing right-hander has the potential to be a late-inning force.

Extensions For Kinsler and Santana

Big late night news in the baseball world, as both Ian Kinsler and Carlos Santana have reportedly reached contract extensions with their respective teams.

According to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Santana's deal with the Indians will likely cover his arbitration years and possibly his first year of free agency. The 26-year-old is currently under team control through the 2016 season. We should hear more details at some point on Tuesday.

As for Kinsler, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that his contract is worth $75 million over five years and includes a club option for a sixth year. The deal will begin next season and hence cancels out the option on his existing contract.

It's a big deal for Kinsler, who now has the highest AAV (average annual value) ever for a second baseman, topping Dan Uggla's five-year, $62 million contract with the Braves. Chase Utley's seven-year, $85 million contract with the Phillies still takes the cake for highest total value. Of course, Robinson Cano's next contract will likely blow all of them out of the water. He's currently due to become a free agent after 2013.

National League Quick Hits: Brandon Phillips will likely sit out Tuesday after leaving Monday's game against the Cardinals with cramping in his left hamstring … Barry Zito tossed his first shutout since 2003 in a win over the Rockies on Monday … Giancarlo Stanton was scratched from Monday's lineup due to left knee pain, but is considered day-to-day … Mike Morse (lat) is scheduled to come off the disabled list for Thursday's home opener while teammate Rick Ankiel (quad) will likely be activated Saturday … Chipper Jones (knee) could be activated from the disabled list as soon as Tuesday … Tim Hudson (back) is scheduled to make his second minor league rehab start Tuesday … Ike Davis, who is 0-for-15 so far this season, is scheduled to get the day off Tuesday … Dexter Fowler is just 1-for-11 so far this season while Dan Uggla is just 1-for-13 … Jed Lowrie (begin) will begin a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday with Triple-A Oklahoma City and could come off the disabled list on Friday … Omar Infante slugged a pair of homers in Monday's win over the Phillies … Bryan LaHair has a homer and two doubles since returning from a stiff back on Sunday … Homer Bailey was knocked around for four runs on six hits (including three homers) over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Monday, doing little to silence those who think Aroldis Chapman should be in the starting rotation … Freddy Sanchez (shoulder) is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment by the end of this week … Justin Maxwell slugged a pinch-hit homer in his Astros' debut Monday against the Braves …

American League Quick Hits: Hector Santiago locked down his second save Monday against the Indians, despite giving up a solo homer to Jose Lopez … Sergio Santos blew his second straight save opportunity Monday against the Red Sox … Chris Sale allowed one run over 6 2/3 innings Monday against the Indians in his first major league start … Derek Jeter and Matt Wieters both had four-hit games Monday … C.J. Wilson tossed seven innings of one-run ball Monday in his Angels' debut Monday against the Twins … Alfredo Aceves pitched a perfect 1-2-3 ninth inning Monday against the Blue Jays for his first save of the season … Jesus Montero missed Monday's game due to a stomach bug … Tommy Milone tossed eight shutout innings in a win over the Royals on Monday night, despite failing to register a strikeout … Hector Noesi was smacked around for seven runs on six hits and three walks in a loss to the Rangers on Monday … The Athletics designated Brandon Allen for assignment after activating Daric Barton from the disabled list … Franklin Gutierrez (pectoral) and Mike Carp (shoulder) could begin minor league rehab assignments later this week … Zach Britton (shoulder) is scheduled to play catch Thursday … Andy Pettitte allowed one run over three innings Monday in his first minor league tune-up with High-A Tampa … Joey Devine is scheduled to undergo elbow surgery Tuesday …

 

[HacheMan]

Yoenis Cespedes' power is legit, but ...

Eric Karabell

As noted in the above video, and admitting the fact that it's very early in the season, a few things seem eminently clear to me about Oakland Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes: He has plenty of raw power, but there are also quite a few holes in that powerful swing, especially when it's not a fastball heading his way. While the Cuban import has many differences compared to older, slower Adam Dunn, I have each of them hitting around 25 home runs and falling short of a .250 batting average.


Some fantasy owners can live with a low batting average if they have Joe Mauer types to balance things out. Perhaps all you need is the power. But think about how differently Dunn and Cespedes are likely viewed in your league on the trade market. Cespedes is definitely in demand, right? But pitchers with scouting reports are going to make him look like Mark Reynolds. Whether obvious or not, here are 12 hitters whom I think will hit 25-plus home runs this season but also will hit on the wrong side of .250. Perhaps a name or two listed below will surprise you … and a few not listed as well. I'll discuss a few of those below the 12 sluggers:


Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs: I commented on Twitter that Soriano, after taking seemingly half an hour to retrieve a fly ball in the gap Monday night, had about as much defensive range as the oak tree on my front lawn. Soriano does have more power, though. He has averaged 23 home runs and a .248 batting average the past three seasons. I don't see that changing much.
Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays: I do love him occasionally hitting second in the lineup. Nice move, Joe Maddon! Hey, Pena gets on base, and the last time he failed to hit 25 home runs in a full season was 2003. There are no batting titles in his future, though.
Jayson Werth, OF, Washington Nationals: It's really hard to believe he batted .296 in 2010, despite all the strikeouts. I do see him bouncing back some from last year's .232 batting average, but obviously not over the .250 mark.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: Like Cespedes, we'll see tape-measure home runs from Goldschmidt, but off-speed pitches flummox him. As such, I've stayed away from Goldschmidt.
J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays: Power from the catcher position is nice, but in his case, you want him batting less to mitigate the batting average damage, because it's certainly coming.
Mike Napoli, C/1B, Texas Rangers: Just sayin', but entering 2011, his career batting average was .251. He is clearly overrated coming off his monster -- and unrepeatable -- second half.
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Angels: His situation remains problematic. He has been so awful playing third base that soon enough he just might not play regularly there. And he refuses to take a walk, which, in his case, guarantees a low batting average.
Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees: Hey, it happened last season, too. That said, teammate Mark Teixeira will barely top .250 to avoid inclusion.
Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox: Yes, he will hit 25 home runs.
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Baltimore Orioles: Just to be thorough. His corner infield colleague Chris Davis won't hit enough home runs.
Adam Lind, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: No reason to expect he'll start hitting lefty pitchers, but he does have power and relative security.Josh Willingham, OF, Minnesota Twins: Off to a good start, but based on durability track record, I'd sell high.

Not on the list: Carlos Santana will hit .270, with 28 home runs. He is the best catcher in fantasy. … Vernon Wells is off to a slow start, but I'm not giving up. He did hit .273 two seasons ago. I think he can do that again, with decent power numbers to boot. … B.J. Upton will fall short of 25 home runs. … Same with Carlos Quentin. … Ryan Howard won't even hit 15 home runs. … Dan Uggla will bat .254, but no monster hitting streak for him this season. … I thought about including Michael Morse above. I think he'll drop 30 points in batting average, though, not 50 points. … I think Colby Rasmus falls short of 25 home runs, but he'll hit above .250. … Logan Morrison has a DL stint in his future. Sorry, I liked him as well, but you can't just dump him in left field. … I think Boston Red Sox catchers could combine for 29 home runs and a .229 batting average like last season, so that's something, I guess. … Someday, Ian Stewart will rejoin the 25-homer, sub-.250 club. … Luke Scott of Tampa is a candidate as well. … What about Rickie Weeks? I did think about it.

 

[HacheMan]

Explanation of Fister, Storen injuries

Stephania Bell

What's in a name?


The Detroit Tigers have indicated that pitcher Doug Fister suffered a "left costochondral strain" in his outing Sunday, which resulted in him landing on the 15-day disabled list. So what exactly is this injury, and how long till Fister can return to the Tigers' rotation? Here's my best attempt at answering both of those questions.

The word "left" is pretty straightforward. We know that Fister suffered an injury to his left side, the side opposite his throwing arm (also referred to as the contralateral side). The bones that form the front of the chest wall (the manubrium and the sternum) connect to the ribs via cartilage segments. The word "costochondral" refers to the junction between a rib (costo) and its respective cartilage (chondral) segment. While little to no movement happens at these particular joints, the cartilage allows for some flexibility within the rib cage.
Perhaps more importantly, there are a number of muscles which attach to the ribs in the vicinity of these joints, and these names start to sound more familiar when it comes to pitcher injuries. The intercostal muscles run, as their name implies, from rib to rib, including along the costochondral region. (We have heard of pitchers suffering "intercostal" strains, including the Baltimore Orioles' Brian Matusz in 2011). To complicate matters, the intercostals have connections to the oblique muscles in the lower part of the rib cage. (Ah, now that brings up a term we have all become familiar with when it comes to pitching injuries: the oblique strain.) Appreciating the close anatomical relationship of these different structures is important because it reminds us just how difficult it can be to differentiate which specific part (or parts) might be responsible for an athlete's pain. In some cases, imaging (such as MRI) can localize the injury, but imaging might not always be required.
So does it really matter which anatomical structure is injured when it comes to determining how long a player will be sidelined? According to a study published in March 2012 in the American Journal of Sports Medicine, aptly titled "Abdominal Muscle Strains in Professional Baseball," the answer would appear to be no. The authors reviewed the incidence of abdominal muscle strains in Major League Baseball between 1991 and 2010 by retrospectively examining the DL. They noted that different terminology was sometimes used to describe the same injury, and therefore the terms intercostal strain, rib-cage/muscle strain, oblique strain, rectus abdominis strain and abdominal muscle strain were all included within the category of abdominal muscle strains. While the authors acknowledged the confusion that could arise out of different names being used to represent the same injury, they found that no matter what the injury was named, the time missed remained essentially the same.
On average, pitchers spent 35.4 days on the DL due to abdominal muscle strains, and more than 75 percent of those injuries were to their contralateral side. Also of interest was the observation that the overall number of these injuries is on the rise in the last decade, particularly early in the season, although there is not a clear explanation as to why that is the case. There is also a high rate of re-injury (12.1 percent), which supports the theory that teams are perhaps more cautious with these injuries now and take good care not to rush players into service too soon.
It seems Fister's injury, despite its somewhat unique descriptor, would likely get lumped in with the above grouping. (Note: When contacted, lead author Stan Conte, Sr. Director of Medical Services for the Los Angeles Dodgers, said he could not recall an injury listed by this name among the cases he reviewed.) Barring some more-severe development in Fister's case (such as an injury to the rib itself or a crack of the rib cartilage), and based on the past players who had similar injuries, the expectation should be that Fister will miss approximately 35.4 days. It should be noted that the Tigers have not placed a timetable on his return, and as Fister told MLive.com, "It's just a matter of seeing how I feel each day and going from there."

The dreaded phrase …


Why does the phrase "(insert name here) is scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews" result in such anguish within the sports world? After all, Andrews is quite congenial and has established an excellent reputation in the realm of sports medicine. Well, I suppose it's because most athletes are not stopping by Andrews' office on a social call as they happen to be traveling through the neighborhood. As many have come to know by now, when an injured athlete is scheduling a visit with Andrews, it's typically for a second (or third) opinion of a pending surgical procedure.
Of course, many athletes leave their consultation with the reassurance that surgery is not imminently required. Those stories rarely get headlines, though, as players quietly return to the business of rehabilitating their injury and eventually (ideally) return to play. When surgery is already being considered by a team as an option, however, a confirmation from Dr. Andrews often seals the deal.
It is with all that in mind that Nationals fans and Drew Storen's fantasy owners saw a spike in their anxiety levels when the team announced that the closer is headed for a consultation with Andrews. Storen started the season on the DL after experiencing soreness in his elbow this spring. He last appeared in a game March 7 but had progressed to throwing from a mound. Nationals manager Davey Johnson told reporters Monday that Storen had soreness in his elbow after throwing in a simulated game Sunday in Florida. "Hopefully it's nothing serious, but it doesn't sound good to me," said Johnson. Unfortunately, it doesn't sound good to anyone. It's too soon to panic about a potential sudden ending to Storen's season. It is worth considering, however, that even if there is no surgery in Storen's future, a more extended downtime (read: multiple weeks) is likely to result, given his recent reaction to throwing and his overall struggles this spring.

 

[HacheMan]

Fun with early statistical paces

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Small sample size.
If you're a seasoned fantasy baseball expert -- be it one season or several decades' worth of playing in leagues -- surely you've heard that phrase, and certainly you'll hear it again countless times this season.


It's a phrase that refers to, naturally, small snippets of a player's statistics, and it's typically used in a dismissive manner as to suggest little relevance to the numbers. There isn't a set length to a small sample size; it can be as tiny as a couple of pitches, or, if you're more liberal in your estimation, as large as two months' worth of statistics. The length often is left in the hands of the person using the phrase. It's arbitrary in much the way that is simply calling a player "good" -- exactly what is he good at? Standing for nine innings without falling down?


Here's the problem with the "small sample size" phrase: Fantasy baseball is formulated upon statistics, many of them in small samples. To us, the small sample actually does matter. So although maybe there's not a lot to glean from the numbers in terms of long-term player analysis, they do matter to us today. And at this time of the season, when seasonal statistics are indeed small, it's understandable if fantasy owners react strongly to numbers at either extreme.


For the past several days, primarily on Twitter, I've been kidding around about "pace" numbers, player statistics projected over a 162-game season. The small sample size of 2012 seasonal statistics makes these "paces" look silly; and, when taken seriously, they directly contribute to fantasy owners overreacting.

There might not be one thing -- excluding injury-related developments -- that would cause me to radically alter my player rankings seven days into a season. You can see this reflected in the rankings in today's column. But I've heard some readers' reactions to some of the early numbers, and today, mostly tongue-in-cheek, let's examine some of these "pace" numbers.


After all, even if there's nothing to a single one of these, certainly the lessons warrant tucking away in the event these players remain close to pace come May 1.


(All statistics are through Tuesday's games and have been projected over the course of a full, 162-game season.)


• Dee Gordon: 97 walks, 130 stolen bases.
Dee Gordon is fast. There's no denying that, and even at the time that I placed him on my "Bleagh!" players list, I hinted at his ability to steal bases at a rate at least half of that 130-steal seasonal pace.


It was his ability to get on base that I questioned, and that ties into the walks. Let's compare: That 97-walk pace is over 162 games; he had 125 walks in 453 career games as a professional entering 2012. Add in that Gordon walked seven times in 74 plate appearances during spring training, and it seems he's making progress, providing himself some hope of getting on base noticeably more than 30 percent of the time … exactly what he'll need to make his speed count on the basepaths. Gordon is hitting .238 with .048 isolated power; his .333 on-base percentage would at least be considered respectable.


Gordon's is the epitome of the "small sample," but if he continues to draw walks, he'll have a fighting chance of remaining in the lineup on an everyday basis and stealing 60-plus bases. That said, if he continues at his 227-strikeout pace, his batting average indeed might not finish higher than .238.



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. Prev Rank is based off Tristan's preseason Top 250 rankings, which includes more than 125 hitters.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rank </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rank </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Albert Pujols, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Upton, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Evan Longoria, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Napoli, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Uggla, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Santana, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nelson Cruz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Eric Hosmer, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Phillips, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Gordon, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jimmy Rollins, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pablo Sandoval, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rodriguez, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Starlin Castro, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kevin Youkilis, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Desmond Jennings, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian McCann, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rickie Weeks, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Gardner, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Wieters, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Lawrie, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jayson Werth, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Young, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carl Crawford, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cameron Maybin, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Morse, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Howard Kendrick, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Buster Posey, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Markakis, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Corey Hart, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Heyward, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Cuddyer, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Berkman, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Avila, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ichiro Suzuki, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Reynolds, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Swisher, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Montero, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> B.J. Upton, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Hardy, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alexei Ramirez, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Lee, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Stubbs, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neil Walker, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Ackley, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jesus Montero, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Logan Morrison, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Peter Bourjos, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erick Aybar, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Joyce, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Lind, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Coco Crisp, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Espinosa, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jhonny Peralta, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Roberts, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Torii Hunter, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yunel Escobar, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Goldschmidt, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Freese, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kelly Johnson, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dee Gordon, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jemile Weeks, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Emilio Bonifacio, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Utley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Rasmus, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gaby Sanchez, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Pena, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lucas Duda, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ike Davis, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brennan Boesch, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Gamel, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yoenis Cespedes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 141 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Delmon Young, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 123 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Headley, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 133 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 125 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.D. Martinez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 127 </td></tr></tbody></table>




• Yoenis Cespedes: 270 strikeouts, 486 swings and misses, 648 "chased" (swings at pitches out of the strike zone).
Cespedes swings and misses a lot. Watch him play, and there's no denying that. He'll be prone to slumps, he'll probably bat beneath .250 come season's end, and he might be a viable contender for 200-plus K's if granted enough at-bats. Eric Karabell had an excellent take on it in his blog on Tuesday. And to put Cespedes' paces in the latter two categories into perspective, consider that in the past three seasons (2009 to '11), Mark Reynolds is the only player to have swung and missed more often in a season (499, in 2009), and no player has chased more nonstrikes in a season. (Pablo Sandoval's 579 in 2009 are next-highest.) At the same time …


• Cespedes: 81 home runs.
When Cespedes makes contact, he hits the ball a long way, another thing you should know if you've watched him play. Ultimately, he's an all-or-nothing slugger with some speed; if you own him you need be prepared for some painfully rough patches.


• Omar Infante: 162 extra-base hits, 97 home runs.
No player in baseball history has accrued more than 119 extra-base hits in a season (Babe Ruth, 1921). Infante, meanwhile, had 52 career home runs entering the 2012 season, in 942 games played, plus 237 extra-base hits.


No one believes that Infante will hit 97 home runs, or even a third of that number, but what most fantasy owners might not realize is how unlikely a candidate he'd be to hit one-ninth -- or 11 -- of those homers. He had eight and seven the past two seasons, his primary appeal being that he was a .296 hitter in those years combined. Don't buy his pace; he's a back-of-your-lineup type in mixed leagues.


• Adam Dunn: 243 at-bats versus left-handers, 122 strikeouts, 0 hits.
It's the tiniest of samples, yes, but remember that Dunn began last season 0-for-38 versus left-handed pitchers and finished with .064/.235/.074 triple-slash rates -- six hits and only one extra-base hit, a double -- against them, one of the most troublesome weaknesses during his miserable 2011. The other weakness was his inability to hit pitches up in the strike zone or fastballs clocked 93 mph or higher; so far he has seen 24 and 17 pitches in either of those situations, so it's too early to tell whether he has made any improvements in those areas.


• Austin Jackson: 162 walks, 162 strikeouts.
Jackson is off to an outstanding start, and the relevance to these two numbers is that they would represent career bests in either category, and both are tied to his performance in batting average -- remember that he hit just .249 last season. Whether this is a sign Jackson will demonstrate more patience all season is unclear; if he is, however, at age 25, he might yet enjoy a breakout campaign in the range of a .290 batting average, 100 runs and 30 steals.


• Ryan Braun: 227 well-hit balls in play.
So much for Braun's "miserable" spring training; everyone was talking about his .213/.315/.404 triple-slash line in 19 Cactus League contests. Now that the games count, Braun looks like the Braun of old, and the relevance of this particular category is that he finished third (184, in 2011), ninth (164, in 2010) and seventh (169, in 2009) in terms of batted balls judged as "well-hit" in the past three seasons. He's as good as they come in the category … still.


• Desmond Jennings: 243 strikeouts, 608 pitches "chased."
You might look at Jennings' .294 batting average and 41-steal pace as positives, but the reason I was so high on him this preseason was the level of plate discipline he showed in 2011. Last season, Jennings chased only 19.9 percent of pitches judged outside the strike zone, walked 10.8 percent of the time and chased only 34.9 percent of nonstrikes in two-strike counts. This season his numbers in those categories are 41.7, 5.6 and 47.4, those again a small sample size. But if they continue, there's little chance Jennings is going to maintain a .290-plus batting average. Heck, he might struggle to finish north of .250.


• Kelly Johnson: 162 walks, 194 runs scored.
If Johnson manages even 100 walks, he'll not only keep his current No. 2 spot in the Toronto Blue Jays' lineup, he'll also score more than 100 runs. He might a sneaky 20-homer, 15-steal, 100-run guy who bats .270, and if he accomplishes all four of those, he'll finish among the top 10 at second base.


Three up



Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers: A scorching-hot spring -- he batted .385/.431/.846 with 16 RBIs in 20 games -- has continued into a similarly impressive first week of the regular season, as Ethier's .316/.381/.842 triple-slash rates are MVP-caliber and at least reminiscent of his career year of 2009, when he managed .272/.361/.508 numbers. Hot starts, though, are nothing new for Ethier. During his seven-year big league career, he's a .321/.398/.539 career hitter in April (March included in that), with each of those rates at least 19 points higher than in any other individual month, and even in his down 2011 he managed .380/.446/.556 stats during the season's opening month. From that angle, you could downplay his performance, but health -- not skills -- has always been the question with Ethier. What if this is the year he's able to stay on the field for all 162? Surely he's a short-term must-start, and from that angle, he warrants a higher ranking.


David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals: Speaking of productive players on a per-game basis who have injury concerns, Freese is a player who hasn't appeared in more than 101 games between the majors and minors in any of the past three seasons, and he has averaged 84 games the past three years. At the same time, he's a .304/.359/.444 career hitter in the big leagues, those stats accrued in 190 games, and that's excluding his outstanding 2011 postseason performance. Consider that, since June 28, a span of 96 games, Freese has managed .313/.370/.527 triple-slash rates while appearing in all but 11 Cardinals games, meaning he'd project to 24 home runs and 109 RBIs over a full season. That's the player you're getting if you gamble on Freese, but understand that, with his health history, it's indeed a long-term gamble.


Derek Jeter, New York Yankees: Jeter is the kind of player for whom criticism might have reached an unreasonable extreme; he's a 37-year-old in his declining years but not one entirely without value. The Yankees are committed to batting him leadoff every night, padding his runs-scored total, and let's point out that he was a .327/.383/.428 hitter the second half of last season, a .318/.362/.455 hitter during Grapefruit League play and now a .391/.417/.565 hitter in his first five regular-season contests. That Jeter continues to generate ground balls on more than 60 percent of his balls in play (72.7 percent thus far in 2012) and is likely to decline in speed as he ages makes him a stronger bet to bat beneath .300 than above it. But if he's, say, a .290-hitting, 100-run, 10-apiece-in-homers-and-steals player, isn't that still a top-10-worthy fantasy shortstop?

 

[HacheMan]

Joe Wieland ready to help deep leaguers

Eric Karabell

The San Diego Padres seem destined for a repeat last-place finish in the National League West, but good news came in the form of a late Tuesday tweet: Here comes Joe Wieland!

Weiland, whom ESPN Insider Keith Law rates as the No. 8 prospect in the Padres' organization, is a right-handed pitcher with terrific minor league numbers and a bright future, and his big league future appears slated to begin Saturday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His tweet said, "My dream has finally come true!!!" I assume he wasn't talking about gas prices in Tucson, Ariz., going down, or a pending appearance on "American Idol."


<offer>A control pitcher with enough strikeout potential to pique fantasy interest, Wieland will replace Dustin Moseley, who is older, less talented and dealing with major shoulder troubles. It's reasonable to think Wieland won't be pitching in the minor leagues again.</offer>
I'm generally cautious when it comes to young pitchers, and Wieland, a mere 22 years old, has all of 7 2/3 innings of Triple-A experience, and that came in the past week. Acquired in the Mike Adams deal last season, Wieland has the benefit of pitching half his games at Petco Park. You don't need to be Roy Halladay to shine there. Look what Aaron Harang and Tim Stauffer accomplished last season. Or look at Moseley: His ERA was 3.30. The journeyman's career ERA entering 2011 was 5.28.
Colleague Kevin Goldstein ranked Wieland 57th in his preseason Top 100 prospects for 2012 list, with one of the concerns being immediate opportunity. Well, it's not even tax day yet and Wieland is getting the call. I reacted quickly and added Wieland, not to be confused with ordinary Houston Astros right-hander Kyle Weiland, in a 16-team league in preparation for his big league debut. Those in ESPN standard mixed leagues can wait, but note that Padres pitchers posted a cumulative 3.02 ERA in 81 home games last season. The only teams that posted a better home ERA were the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies. It's hard to pitch poorly over a long period of time at Petco Park. And Wieland doesn't figure to pitch poorly.
Of course, wins might be tough to come by for Wieland and his rotation friends, as the Padres are hitting just .183 as a team so far. But don't let that faze you one bit. I focus on pitchers who can help in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts more so than in wins, because you cannot predict that category. Anyway, it figures to be Wieland against Dodgers lefty Ted Lilly, who is coming off the DL for Saturday's start, and I'll be watching closely.
Meanwhile, this seems like a good opportunity to share my thoughts on Wieland's pending teammates in San Diego:• I was able to see much of Edinson Volquez's start Tuesday, and while he started slowly, allowing a rocketed Paul Goldschmidt two-run double in the first inning, that was pretty much it. Volquez had far more control than in his first outing in which he hit his pitch count after five innings. On Tuesday, Volquez lasted seven innings, allowing only two hits in his final six innings. He fanned eight and walked three. Full disclosure, I've remained interested in Volquez for years. I mean, the right-hander did strike out 206 hitters in 2008. He has been a WHIP nightmare since, but he's healthy now, and his new home ballpark is Petco. Honestly, I think Volquez might strike out 200 hitters again this year.


• Only two Padres hitters made it into colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters rankings this week. One is outfielder Cameron Maybin, who offers a nice power/speed package. The other is third baseman Chase Headley, an unlikely No. 3 hitter. Headley has 23 plate appearances this season (entering Wednesday), and in 13 of them he has either walked or struck out. He also has a double and a grand slam. Headley is a very patient hitter who lacks natural power, but he's underrated in fantasy because he also steals bases. He might lead the Padres in RBIs this season with 75 or so, but if they come with 12 home runs and 15 steals, he should remain popular. Don't drop Headley just because he's hitting .118 so far.
• I fear Jesus Guzman is running out of time to prove himself. He broke out in 2011, hitting .312 over 247 at-bats, with 29 extra-base hits. He actually hit .346 at home, with power and speed. But he can't afford a slow start, not with Carlos Quentin due back from knee surgery by early May. Plus, Kyle Blanks is looming. He has just one at-bat so far.
• Nothing against Mat Latos, but the Padres robbed the Cincinnati Reds this winter. Volquez will at least be trade bait; Bradley Boxberger is a future closer; Yonder Alonso is off to a slow start but will hit; and I think the best of the bunch will be Cuban catcher Yasmani Grandal. He's hitting for power and taking walks at Triple-A Tucson and shouldn't be there for long.• I don't think the Chicago Cubs will regret their Anthony Rizzo trade for Andrew Cashner, despite them having a miserable bullpen, but Cashner has serious stuff. He was hitting triple digits with his hearty fastball over the weekend. Closer Huston Street is safe, at least until he's hurt and/or traded, but I think Cashner will be this year's David Robertson, providing strikeouts and a good WHIP and ERA. Relievers who don't get saves can still help fantasy owners. But in this case, I think Cashner will earn saves.