Parnell Throws Gas, Will Close
Monday night marked the deadline for teams to sign their draft picks, and action was fast and furious all the way up until clock struck midnight.
Or, that is to say, it was fast and furious among the hard-core fans. It's hard for many to get very excited about a bunch of names they didn't know who might or might not make it to the major leagues. Still, it's fun to dream of the future, especially when your team is out of it.
In that honor, we'll name the tiers after the best values in the history of baseball's draft. Even if your team missed out on signing their first or second pick this week, they might just have uncovered the next Mike Piazza, who was famously selected in the 62nd round as a favor to his godfather.
Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Albert Pujols, 13th round, Pick #402" Tier.)
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Yeah. The King was drafted in the 13th round. There were concerns he might not be able to stay at catcher, or third base, and that he wouldn't have the bat for first. Whoops!
Seriously, any calls that Mariano Rivera is done are overblown. Yeah, he's blown as many saves as last year, and he's given up home runs in two of his past three appearances, but that's still only three home runs on the year. Even pointing out his career-worst ground-ball rate is picking the nits. He's still Mo and he still has the cutter.
Still, no closer is going to assail Jonathan Papelbon's position at the top if he keeps pitching like this. In his past ten outings, he has three baserunners. And no walks. And 11 strikeouts. Even if Craig Kimbrel has more Kimbrels, and Joel Hanrahan has more saves (and somehow avoided his third blown save of the season despite giving up the tying run Tuesday night), Papelbon carries the crown another week.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Roy Oswalt, 23rd round, Pick #684" Tier.)
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
It's doubtful that there were three players better in Roy Oswalt's draft, let alone 683. Even on the tail end of his career, Oswalt has shown pinpoint control and strikeout stuff. He managed to survive in a hitter's park and put the Astros on his back for years. No wonder his back hurts now.
Andrew Bailey drops in this tier, and it's not only about the game he blew against Texas Sunday. What is worrisome is that he has five walks in his last nine outings. That might not sound so terrible, but to put this in perspective, Bailey has eight walks in 25 1/3 innings this year. He had 13 walks in 49 innings last year. He's had some arm issues, and any loss of control would have to be a red flag. Grant Balfour is the backup after Brian Fuentes burned bridges in the organization with his public comments, most likely.
On a full-year basis, Jose Valverde is still a shaky entrant into this tier. He's still walking batters at a career-high rate, and striking them out at a career-worst rate. He's also lost the nice ground-ball rate he showed last year for the first time in his career. But! He still strikes out about a batter per nine, and he hasn't blown a save all year. He could be living just enough, just enough for the city (of Detroit).
Tier 3: OK options (9) (AKA: The "Ian Kinsler, 17th round, Pick #496" />" Tier.)
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Comment:
Maybe his low batting average scares you off in some fantasy leagues, but Ian Kinsler's blend of power, patience at speed at an infield position makes him one of baseball's best real-life players. That almost five hundred players went before him seems unbelievable, but then again it's obvious that he's worked on his ability to make contact as he's matured. Looks like scouts just never thought he could make it this far.
In a lot of ways, Jordan Walden is a better pitcher than Jose Valverde. He gets more strikeouts. He issues fewer walks. More of his contact travels along the ground. He has more velocity. He has more long-term upside, given his age and stuff. But the games are still played, and Walden just blew his eighth save, which leads the league. As long as his manager can look past his results and instead focus on the process, Walden should keep his job. But the BS often catches eyes, so Walden drops to represent this risk.
Sergio Santos had another save snatched from his fingers this week when Ozzie Guillen opted to use Chris Sale to pitch to two lefties in the ninth inning against the Royals. Again, this is a smart way to go -- platooning relievers makes the best use of their skills -- but it will cost Santos owner saves going forward. Santos cost himself a save Tuesday night, but it wasn't a blowup. He's safe for now.
Brian Wilson is in trouble. Not with the law, but something is not right. He's walking a batter more than usual and his swinging strike rate is at a career low as well. He's gotten a little unlucky on batted balls, and he still has a strong mix of whiffs and grounders, but this isn't the same Brian Wilson we had last year. He has five walks in his last five appearances and blew a save spectacularly against the Braves on Monday. His back hurts, too. With Sergio Romo on the DL, it looks like Jeremy Affeldt would be next, but it also looks like the Giants may sink or swim with Wilson anyway. If you think his walk rate is not a problem, consider that Carlos Marmol only has four more walks then Wilson… and 25 more strikeouts. That's why he moves up past Wilson despite blowing his own save Tuesday night.
Why move Fernando Salas, Joe Nathan, and Ryan Madson up in a wholesale move? Because the tiers were a little off. In an effort to keep these tiers even, we might have pushed some guys too far down. But so many things in our lives are normally distributed: meaning that they fall in a bell curve pattern. There are a few elite players, a big chunk in the middle, and then a few really bad players. Consider this the chunk in the middle. All of these closers have slight question marks that keep them from the elite, even if Salas blew a save Tuesday night. None of them are really
question marks as the next tier is labeled.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Kevin Youkilis, 8th round, Pick #243" Tier.)
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mark Melancon, Houston Astros
Comment:
The Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis, is a great player in his own right. But the eighth round is not quite the dead zone as the double-digit rounds. Cliff Lee was also picked in this round, and high-upside players with question marks often fall this far. So, great pick Sox, but not greatest pick.
Now the tiers look a little better. These guys aren't quite roller coasters, but there are legit question marks about each. The 'king' of this tier is Leo Nunez, who just blew a save and hurt himself in the process. A comebacker nipped his pitching hand, but he stayed in the game. Really, Nunez is a strong pitcher -- he has a better than three-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio -- but he does have a gopheritis problem. Good thing he pitches in a nice home park. Mike Dunn and Edward Mujica are next on the depth chart but Nunez got right back on the horse with a save Tuesday night.
This is why the tiers needed to be changed: Closers like Kyle Farnsworth, Kevin Gregg, Francisco Cordero, Javy Guerra and Mark Melancon are flawed closers, but they are relatively safe. Call it a flashing yellow -- you'll probably proceed, but you never know when a truck is barreling towards the intersection.
Of these closers, Farnsworth and his pinpoint control this year (eight walks in 46 innings) might have the best 'true talent' but it doesn't take much more than a look at his career ratios to know that he could implode as well. If Co-Co Cordero didn't have a nice ERA and WHIP, he'd be in more trouble. He barely has a two-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio and the flamethrowing Aroldis Chapman is breathing fire down his back. The rest don't really have much behind them -- Gregg has Jim Johnson, who is starting some too, Melancon has Wilton Lopez most likely, and Guerra is just hoping Jonathan Broxton doesn't get healthy in time. The lack of competition mean they deserve a higher ranking than their talent demands.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
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Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (5) (AKA: The "Ryan Howard, 5th round, Pick #141" Tier.)
1st Chair: Chris Perez, 2nd Chair: Vinnie Pestano, Cleveland Indians
1st Chair: Neftali Feliz, 2nd Chair: Mike Adams, Texas Rangers
1st Chair: Frank Francisco, 2nd Chair: Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair: Bobby Parnell, 2nd Chair: Jason Isringhausen, New York Mets
1st Chair: Rafael Betancourt, 2nd Chair: Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies
Comment:
Ryan Howard is a beast, but if you take away points for his glove, position and baserunning -- as you should when thinking about him from a real-life baseball perspective -- then he's not as exciting a player. And, in the fifth round, he had the highest price here. Hopefully you didn't pay a fifth round fantasy pick on any of the closers in this tier!
Chris Perez has righted the ship somewhat with four straight scoreless outings. He struck out two in those four-plus innings, though, against one walk, so he's still not showing good ratios. We cannot forget his rough stretch, nor can we forget his bad strikeout-to-walk ratio. Maybe a nice home stretch will set him right and keep Vinnie Pestano from being a hot pickup.
Don't drop Mike Adams just yet. Neftali Feliz has been better recently, with four straight scoreless outings, but he's still walking guys (two in his last four). On the other hand, he also has five strikeouts in those four innings, so that's a better ratio then he's shown all year. His manager claims he's solid in the role, but now there are two great options behind him.
It took an appendix issue, but Frank Francisco is back in the closer's seat in Toronto. Frankie Frank has secretly been good for the last month: He's only given up one run (on a home run, yes), with 11 strikeouts against one walk in twelve appearances. He could even take the role and keep it depending on how long Jon Rauch is out.
A new closer is being minted in New York. We said here after the Francisco Rodriguez trade that it would probably be Jason Isringhausen first, as a bridge to Bobby Parnell, but that Parnell was the team's best long-term option. We even suggested that Izzy's quest for 300 saves would mark a possible transition period. We never thought the team would announce, the day after Isringhausen managed his to reach his milestone, that the team was going to move towards Parnell as the closer. No matter, here we are, and it makes a lot of sense for the team to do this. They have to look to next year, and Parnell does have the upside to be a long-term closer. He throws triple-digit gas and has an excellent slider. The problem is that both his control and command -- his ability to hit the strike zone as well as his ability to hit his spots -- are iffy. He's been better this year, though, and his current walk rate actually would be sustainable as long as he can avoid getting hit around. We know that triple-digit gas is not enough, but give me a head-case gas-thrower with iffy control over a heady pitcher trying to get by on slop and guile any day. Parnell is a must-get if there are no other closers on you wire, but it's probably unsafe to drop any other established closer for him.
Oh, and while Huston Street is out with his lat issue, the Rockies will go with Rafael Betancourt most likely. If they want to look to the future, though, Rex Brothers has been showing an excellent strikeout rate has had the Closer of the Future handle slapped on him before. I'm happy to discuss these situations on twitter any time.
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Injured
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays (appendicitis)
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies (strained lat)
Comment:
Huston Street was put on the DL, but it was backdated. If his lat issue cooperates, he could be back in a week. Jon Rauch should also be out the minimum. Jonathan Broxton is throwing, but can he get back quick enough to even get into some minor league games before the season is over? Set his upside cap at about three saves in the final two weeks.
The Deposed:
Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Matt Thornton, Chicago A.L.
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee
David Aardsma, Seattle
We'll leave Jason Isringhausen off until Parnell saves a game or two, but our question from last week was answered with a resounding "yes."
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The Steals Department
Johnny Giavotella was our deep league recommendation last week, and he's in the midst of a two-week stretch where he's stolen four bags. Now, for our mixed league steals guy, we'll recommend his keystone partner. Alcides Escobar has no power or patience, but it's really only the patience that's a shame for those looking for steals. If he walked more, he'd have more chances to steal. No matter, he still has some batted ball luck coming his way, and he should steal another six-to-ten bases over the rest of the season. A .260 batting average is not as bad as it used to be, either. There are many worse ways to get your steals.
The biggest winner in the Delmon Young trade was Ben Revere, who gets a starting job back. Revere is another slap hitter who could walk more, but he strikes out even less than Escobar and has better batted ball luck coming his way. In fact, if position is no concern, Revere is the better bet for a .270+ batting average going forward, and more steals. It's actually surprising that he's owned in so many fewer leagues than the KC shortstop. He's a burner and has a regular job. He could be a better option than Juan Pierre, who has fewer steals in way more plate appearances and the same flaws.