MLB Fantasy News 2011

[HacheMan]

AFL MLB-Ready Prospect Roundup
Just a few days after the major league season ends, a select group of prospects, managers, scouts and media turn around and start all over again in Arizona. They're not there for some sort of early-early spring training, which might stretch the baseball season into absurdity. Instead, the Arizona Fall League provides top young players with one last chance to impress - and baseball addicts with one last chance to see live baseball before the long winter hot stove months.

Typically, teams send some of their best position prospects to the AFL. Good pitchers come, too, but with young arms so protected these days, it's usually pitchers that didn't rack up big innings totals during the regular season.

Among the position players, the AFL is often populated with players that are on the cusp of joining the major league. Just look at last year's crop, which featured Rookie of the Year Buster Posey along with such young luminaries as Domonic Brown, Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, and Jose Tabata. Pitchers included Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Mike Minor, and Drew Storen - all recent draftees that wanted to prove their mettle and augment their innings totals.

Of course, this year's crop includes players that are ready to contribute right away and those, like Bryce Harper, that have high ceilings but are a little further away. So let's start a two-part series on AFL prospects that should help fantasy players differentiate between those guys that will help in 2011 and those to file for the future.

Ready for 2011
Brandon Belt 1B/OF, Giants
Belt is by far the best combination of high ceiling and readiness for the major leagues. Coming out of college as a pitcher that could hit pretty well, the Giants changed his batting stance - widening his base and quieting his hands - and he's been nothing short of spectacular since. Last year, he played (and played well) everywhere from Single-A to Triple-A. Though he stumbled a little in Triple-A, he still showed great power (.563 SLG) and got on base (.393 OBP). The average batting line at the AFL is skewed towards hitters, but Belt's .392/.449/.658 line is great even in the thin desert air. The best news is that Belt looks athletic enough to play the outfield for a few years, so he should be in San Francisco no matter what happens with Aubrey Huff. He's a great late-round flier or early keeper selection.

Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners
The only thing that might keep Ackley from joining the Mariners coming out of spring training next year is his defense. The team shifted him to second base, perhaps because his power wouldn't play at first base or in the corner outfield, and asked him to work on the defense and his aggressiveness on the basepaths. Reviews of his glove have been mixed, and he's only stolen four bases, but the rest of the package looks ready to go. He's walked 23 times against only nine strikeouts, and is .426/.576/.754 line is fierce. In fact, he leads the fall league in OPS. He doesn't have a ton of power or speed, but with Jose Lopez leaving town, there's an opening for him on the Mariner infield and he's a decent sleeper at a tough position.

Ben Revere, OF, Twins
Revere only had 406 plate appearances at the Double-A level before he was called up to the big leagues last year. Perhaps because he struggled at the big-league level (.179/.233/.179 in 30 PAs), the team sent him to the AFL so he could regain confidence and show the Twins that he was still ready to rejoin the majors in 2011. Down in the AFL, he's shown great defense (a wall-slamming catch in the AFL Rising Stars game for one), the ability to get on base (.317/.378/.358), and great speed on the basepaths (12 SBS, 0 CS). That's about what one could expect from him if the major league team moves some pieces around to make space. With Denard Span's defense only about average in center, it's certainly possible that Revere will make a great speed sleeper late in 2011 drafts.

Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers
Robinson is a toolsy outfielder that came to switch-hitting in the minor leagues, so his athleticism is a little ahead of his baseball skills for now. He's at the AFL for the second straight season as the team hopes to get him all the at-bats he can handle. He's obviously got speed, and in recent years he's shown better ability to take a walk. With Matt Kemp and his defense the subject of scorn in Los Angeles, it's possible that he moves Kemp to the open left-field spot and plays center field for a few seasons. He may not be long for that position, but can play it for now as his speed helps cover mistakes. Strikeouts are his bugaboo, and he's struck out in almost a third of his at-bats in the AFL. On the other hand, his .389 OBP and 22 steals in Arizona show his upside despite the flaws.

Marc Rzepczynski, SP, Blue Jays
Scrabble has had a strong AFL, giving up only three runs (two earned) in 26 innings. His 20 strikeouts in those innings are a little less exciting, but he's always been more of a groundballer than a strikeout guy. He's walking less than three per nine, and that's the best sign that he's regained control. There are a lot of candidates for the Jays rotation, but Rzepczynski is interesting in the last rounds of most drafts.

Kam Mickolio, RP, Orioles
The Orioles are currently without their closer from last year (Koji Uehara), but they still own their supposed closer (Mike Gonzalez). It may take a few spills and strains for Mickolio to garner saves next year, but last year's Orioles should provide the blueprint. Mickolio has struck out double-digit batters per nine since 2008, and though his season last year wasn't so great, he's showing something in the AFL. Against great opposition, he's struck out 18 and walked a mere two in twelve innings. That'll get noticed and that'll get him on the team, but in order for him to get saves he'll need some help.

Leslie Anderson, 1B, Rays
It's funny to say that a first baseman with a .677 OPS in the Arizona Fall League is probably ready to play in the major leagues, but the Cuban-born Anderson is at least 28 years old, and it's funny to say anything about man named Leslie. Anderson may be ready for the bigs, but his upside is severely limited by his lack of power. Though he won the Rising Stars game with a walk-off home run, he only has two home runs in the AFL (and a .382 SLG). The Rays need help at first and DH, so he might get a shot, but there's little reason for a ton of hope

 

[HacheMan]

AFL Long-Term Prospect Roundup
Last week, we took a look at the Arizona Fall League prospects that could be ready for the primetime. The AFL specializes in just these sort of fast risers, so it was a nice list of the top fantasy-ready prospects in the game.

It's worth noting that some players just missed last week's list. In the case of Jeremy Jeffress, it's hard to see what role he will play in the major leagues despite the fact that he hit 102 MPH in the Rising Stars game. He's most likely a middle reliever unless John Axford's walk rate blows up again. And Freddie Freeman - well, he's ready to go and will take the starting role from day one in Atlanta, but he didn't really play at the AFL this year after a thumb injury.

But there were plenty of players in Arizona that provide hope for the longer term. Just-drafted star players and pitchers that spent some of the year injured come to Arizona for reasons of their own. You may have heard of some of them, even. They deserve a little attention, so let's take a look at the guys that may not make the major leagues until late next season at best. They might even help you next September if things break right.

Bryce Harper, Nationals
The big name, the big bat, and the eye black at night made for an interesting debut for last year's number one pick. Just by being a bat-first number one pick, he's in good company - going back to 1984, the worst slugging number one pick was Pat Burrell. Then again, if Harper ends up anything like Burrell, he'll be called a bust. Superstardom is not assured - a scout mentioned to me that the swing looked high-effort - but Harper's .343/.410/.629 line in the AFL sure made for a good debut. Watch his strikeouts, and check here for a longer breakdown I did on Harper, but we may be talking about a cup of coffee late next year if he tears through the minors like he burned up the AFL.

Mike Montgomery, Royals
Montgomery did not have the best AFL, as he gave up seven earned runs in 10 1/3 innings, but he still impressed those in the stands. Working in shorter stints, the Royals' lefty hit 94 and 95 MPH on the gun and showed the vaunted changeup often. The best news was that his curveball, which has been inconsistent at times, looked great from the stands in Arizona. Montgomery only got 59 2/3 innings at Double-A last year, and started the season in rookie ball, so a cup of coffee or some innings in the major league pen in 2011 are about the best fantasy managers can hope for.

Eric Hosmer, Royals
Hosmer had a great half-season in Double-A last year, a fact that he credits to his Lasik surgery. Batting .313/.365/.615 sure looks great, but the below-average walk rate could improve, and 211 plate appearances at Double-A does not a major-league ready first baseman make. His work at the AFL seems to concur, as he batted .203/.284/.291 in a league known for its offense. Hosmer is still a great prospect - either the first- or second-best prospect in the game at his position - but unless he tears up Double-A once again and comes up mid-season, he probably won't impact fantasy baseball until 2012.

Zack Cox, Cardinals
The Cardinals took Cox in the first round, and took some heat for it. The thing is, he's a college hitter, relatively ready to go, and he plays third base (at least in the short-term) - so he fit a team need. With low-ceiling but defensively-able David Freese in the fold, the team can allow Cox to play some in the minor leagues (he only got 17 plate appearances in rookie ball last year), but with his polish, he'll move quickly. In the AFL, he didn't impress with the bat (.278/.304/.389), so look for Cox to be relevant in spring training 2012, and temper your expectations a bit.

Michael Taylor, Athletics
Taylor was traded to Oakland for Brett Wallace, and seemed ready to go as a 24-year old that had torn up Double- and Triple-A in the Phillies' system. He had power, speed, and great batting averages, and the A's needed star power in their outfield. A year later, and he's in the "long-term" upside category - what happened? Well, Taylor joined the A's system and completely lost his power. Then he went to the AFL and continued the trend (.278/.391/.407) while also looking lost at the plate far too often. Taylor needs to repeat Triple-A for Oakland and recover his lost power stroke before the team will advance him.

Danny Duffy, Royals
Another power lefty in the Royals organization, Duffy also struggled in the AFL. In 15 2/3 innings in Arizona, Duffy gave up 14 (!) earned urns and walked nine batters. Enough with the "Debbie Downer" about Danny Duffy - there are some good signs. Number one is the fact that he was on the mound at all - Duffy famously left baseball for a time, due to some maturity issues. When asked about his past at the AFL, Danny Duffy was contrite, as well - he admitted to being immature, and as any twelve-stepper knows, that's the first step to getting better. Oh, and Duffy also struck out 18 in those poor AFL innings, so look at his Double-A statistics around mid-season for an update.

Marc Krauss, Diamondbacks
Krauss hit 25 home runs in High-A ball in 2010, and then followed it up with a .298/.404/.524 performance at the AFL. He has a nice, clean swing and hasn't struck out too often anywhere. So why isn't he higher on the list? He was drafted after three years at a top college (Ohio), and is a little older than his competition. Scouts also wonder if the bat is a little slow. Then again, the power potential is there, and he deserves to be watched.

Charles Blackmon, Rockies
Another power/speed centerfielder coming up the Colorado organization? Well, done, Rockies, well done. Blackmon hit 11 home runs and stole 19 bags in only 381 plate appearances in Double-A last year, and then went for .264/.372/.417 in the AFL. Most impressive about his performance in Arizona, though, was the fact that Blackmon only struck out six times in 85 plate appearances. If only his team didn't have so many outfielders, he'd be on radars right now.

Tony Sanchez, Pirates
A high draft pick, and nice batting averages, have been Sanchez' claim to fame so far. The power is suspect, as his AFL line (.206/.289/.397) hints. He also hasn't played above High-A yet, so he's a name best filed for later.

Chris Carpenter, Cubs
Not 'that' Chris Carpenter, this Chris Carpenter is coming off TJ surgery and questions about his future role. In the pen, he can hit triple-digits and use his slider to dominate, but the ability might be there to provide more value as a starter. In Arizona, he wowed with velocity, and struck out about a batter per inning, but also walked too many batters. Could be a Carlos Marmol replacement if they ever trade their current closer.

 

[HacheMan]

Hot Stove Ignited These aren't your grandpa's Winter Meetings.

Pardon the cliche introduction. I don't know your grandpa and he's really got nothing to do with this. What I'm saying is teams are spending, and teams are being aggressive.

Let's just get to the storylines.

[SIZE=+1]Werth Sounds Like "Worth." Get It?[/SIZE]

Super agent Scott Boras drew a seven-year, $126 million contract out of Ted Lerner, the Nationals' billionaire owner, and proved again why he's the best player representative in the business. Jayson Werth is going to turn 32 at the start of the 2011 season and he benefited greatly from the power-friendly confines of Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park, amassing a .920 OPS over the past three seasons at CBP and an .859 mark on the road.

He'll be fine over the first few years of the contract. Worth it? No, but fine.

What's really going to be bad is when he's 36 -- like four years from now -- and eating up a massive chunk of budget space while barely cranking 25 home runs and hitting .270. That's what happens in the post-steroid era.

Maybe Nats GM Mike Rizzo is being pushed by Lerner. There's no doubt that the franchise had to bid higher than more attractive suitors to lure Werth in, and if Lerner is committed to spending they should spend. But it would be a shame if the Nationals' future is being put into Werth's basket. Matt Holliday is a far more productive player, several years younger, and yet the Cardinals were rightfully criticized when they handed him a seven-year, $120 million contract last winter. It's absolutely crazy that Werth will make more.

[SIZE=+1]Mark Reynolds: Now Striking Out All Over The AL East[/SIZE]

Reynolds is a circus act. He's like a player you'd find in old baseball almanacs -- a part of baseball lore, not one of these new multi-million dollar "professionals."

The guy struck out 204 times in 2008, becoming the first player in the history of the game to fan over 200 times. Then he shattered his own record in 2009, whiffing on 223 occasions. This year he had 211 strikeouts.

Over the course of Reynolds' four-year MLB career, he's struck out in 38.7% of his plate appearances. If you go to a game and he's playing all nine innings, there's a near certainty that you'll see him strike out. It's a circus man's guarantee.

Now, it's hard to rip a guy with his kind of power. When Reynolds connects he sends balls a far way and he homered a career-high 44 times during that 2009 campaign. But plate discipline is important and he has very little of it. The American League East's high-paid starters should be to figure out a way to exploit his free-swinging mentality, just as the hurlers in the National League West did, and then what are the Orioles left with? Reynolds is not a good fielder, he'll only get worse with age, and he's owed $7.5 million in 2012.

David Hernandez was shipped over to the Diamondbacks in the trade that Baltimore made to acquire Reynolds on Monday afternoon. So was Kameron Mickolio, but Hernandez is the real catch. He registered a 79/18 K/BB ratio over 57 ⅓ Triple-A innings in 2009 and 72 strikeouts in 79 1/3 big league innings this year. He can either be used as a reliable setup man or developed into a mid-rotation starter in Arizona.

The Orioles made a desperate move in order to inject a little power into their lineup. It could work. Reynolds could find a way to 40-plus homers like he did in 2009 and could help the O's climb from fifth to fourth in the AL East. But if that's the answer, what was the question?

Oh, wait, I know the question: How can Baltimore best block the development of third base prospect Josh Bell?

[SIZE=+1]The Red Sox Finally Got Their Man[/SIZE]

The Trade That Took Two Years is what they'll call it.

The Red Sox have been trying to reel in Adrian Gonzalez for close to 24 months and finally reached agreement on a swap with the Padres this weekend. The Sox gave up Casey Kelly, a seriously promising young starter, Anthony Rizzo, a 21-year-old first baseman with a bat that has already gone signing at Double-A, and Reymond Fuentes, who doesn't turn 20 until February and swiped 42 bases in 47 chances at Single-A Glenville this year.

The Friars are going to enjoy tapping the potential of all three of those prospects. The Red Sox would have surely enjoyed it too, but they got their man.

Gonzalez is everything the Red Sox could want in a first baseman. He's everything that any team -- outside the Cardinals, I suppose -- could want in a first baseman. The 28-year-old fields well, he hits moon shots, he hits for batting average, he draws a lot of walks and he plays 160 games per year. Would it surprise anyone if he turned in 45-plus homers next year while taking half of his hacks at Fenway Park? Or how about 45-plus doubles?

"He'll wear out that wall," Padres GM Jed Hoyer acknowledged when asked Monday how he thought Gonzalez might fare in Boston. Indeed, they'll be punching out some dents on the Green Monster come summer.

[SIZE=+1]It's Time To Get Serious About That Pujols Extension[/SIZE]

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is in a tough spot with Albert Pujols. The 21st Century's most dominant hitter is one year away from free agency and watched as an older and far less productive Ryan Howard was handed a five-year, $125 million contract extension from the Phillies in April. That's $25 million per season.

WAR (Wins Against Replacement) is a stat that estimates the amount of wins that a player either costs or provides his team every season compared to a run-of--the-mill (i.e., replacement) player. It takes into account defense, run production, park factors and all that jazz. According to FanGraphs, Howard meant 2.0 WAR to the Phillies in 2010 and 4.8 WAR in 2009. He registered 3.1 WAR in 2008.

Pujols hasn't finished with a WAR rating under 7.3 since 2002.

If he wants to ask for a piece of The Gateway Arch, he can probably get it.

Will the St. Louis Cardinals be able to afford a seven or eight-year contract worth $30 million per season? Paired with Matt Holliday's seven-year, $120 million commitment, the Birds on the Bat could be throwing half of their payroll at two over-age-30 players for the next decade. Mozeliak has to ask himself if that's realistic, and he must find a trade partner fast if it is deemed insane.

The Yankees already have a high-priced first baseman and the Red Sox got a new one just yesterday. Pujols can make things very difficult on the Cardinals if he simply requests the going rate. The two sides had a preliminary meeting Monday and are expected to get serious at some point this week.

 

[HacheMan]

Passing Through Day Two On Day One of MLB's Winter Meetings in crisp and cool Orlando, Florida we were greeted by the official announcement of Jayson Werth's massive seven-year, $126 million contract with the Nationals. Then the official press conference introducing Adrian Gonzalez as the newest member of the Red Sox. Then strikeout-prone third baseman Mark Reynolds was traded to the Orioles.

It was busy.

Day Two wasn't, at least not in the way of official announcements, or signings or trades. What we witnessed Tuesday at Disney's Swan and Dolphin Resort can best be described as posturing. Velvet ropes and posturing.

[SIZE=+1]The Left-Handed Lee And His Magical Mystery Teams[/SIZE]

Sounds like a Roald Dahl book, right?

Then Jon Heyman of SI.com probably wrote the forward.

Heyman took to Twitter yesterday with word that a mystery team or two could be entering the sweepstakes for Cliff Lee wielding lucrative seven-year offers. Not the Yankees, Rangers or Nationals -- they're all stuck on six-year proposals -- but a team with a desire to make a big splash on the open market and with enough budget room to outbid Lee's more attractive suitors.

It's not worth trying to guess the identity of these mystery clubs because the team or teams that Heyman is describing might not exist. It's quite common for agents to leak stories about unnamed darkhorse teams in the hopes of scaring big-money offers out of desperate parties.

The Rangers and Yankees, however, are standing pat.

In fact, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com on Tuesday that he's not going to make an offer until Lee and his agent are ready to get serious and talk numbers. Cashman and Co. won't be left in the dark when the first official proposal is laid out, no matter where it comes from. And they're probably extremely confident in their ability to match it.

[SIZE=+1]Attempting To Get A Read On The Beltre Market[/SIZE]

It's not all that rare for a Scott Boras client to slow-play free agency, but this is getting kind of ridiculous.

Adrian Beltre was offered a five-year, $64 million contract from the A's during the early part of the offseason. He did not reject nor accept that proposal, simply deciding to remain silent while Oakland GM Billy Beane was left with his hands in his pockets. The A's have since pulled that offer off the table, and, if you believe Peter Gammons, will not reengage the free agent third baseman no matter how things go from here on out.

So who's chasing Beltre? The Red Sox don't want to move Kevin Youkilis to the outfield and the Angels are believed to be focused on landing Carl Crawford. No other teams have made a public claim of interest.

Maybe it's the asking price. Beltre is believed to be seeking a five-year contract worth about $85 million and he'll cost the team that signs him a compensatory first-round draft pick because he is a Type A free agent. That's a big time commitment, especially for a player who seems to only play well in contract years and obviously benefited offensively from the cozy dimensions of Fenway Park.

Beltre is going to get a serious deal, and he deserves it after batting .321/.365/.553 with 28 homers and 102 RBI in 2010 while again living up to his reputation as one of baseball's best defensive third basemen. But it's not clear where that deal is going to come from.

Perhaps the Rangers will jump into the hunt. They've opened themselves up to offers for veteran third baseman Michael Young this week and would have gobs of remaining capital if they miss out on Cliff Lee. A storm could be brewing in Texas.

[SIZE=+1]Is Konerko Playing Hardball With The White Sox?[/SIZE]

White Sox GM Kenny Williams likes to move fast and attempted to do just that when he inked Adam Dunn to a four-year, $56 million contract last weekend then turned his sights directly toward Paul Konerko.

The 34-year-old Konerko has played 12 of his 13 major league seasons with the White Sox and has a great relationship with club chairman Jerry Reinsdorf. There is undeniable mutual interest in working out a deal, but it's now Wednesday and nothing has been signed. Why? Because Konerko is asking that the Reinsdorf-led Sox open their purse strings and make a three-year offer worth $15 million annually.

The White Sox have a few holes to patch in their bullpen and have already stretched their budget with the Dunn contract. They want to keep Konerko at an annual salary of $12-$13 million so that the remaining cash can be spent on a replacement for J.J. Putz. Oh, and Bobby Jenks.

Konerko slugged a team-high 39 home runs in 2010 and turned in a career-best 977 OPS while earning exactly $12 million. In another kind of free agent market he would stand to get a significant raise, but this one happens to be heavy on first basemen and Paulie simply doesn't have enough suitors to be demanding a more lucrative offer sheet.

The Diamondbacks checked in at one point, but they're not in the business of making massive commitments to aging ballplayers. The interest just isn't there.

[SIZE=+1]Greinke Is Ready To Move On, But Will He?[/SIZE]

Royals ace Zack Greinke has been in The Land of BBQ since 2004 and has done some truly amazing things on the mound at Kauffman Stadium. But he has admitted to Kansas City-based reporters recently that he is growing tired of the constant losing records and that he would accept a trade to just about anywhere.

The Royals, locked and loaded on the farm and cool to the idea of getting younger, have attempted to shop the 27-year-old Greinke this winter. So far they haven't had much luck, but Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse believes that might soon change.

Price says that the Royals are now fielding improved offers for the right-hander and could bite on one at some point this winter. Those proposals will only grow sweeter as guys like Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb, Rich Harden and Cliff Lee are pulled off the board. Especially Lee.

The Rangers, Nationals and Yankees have been the most aggressive suitors for Lee to this point, but only one of them will wind up with the southpaw. Then what? The Yanks will still have a strong desire to add a starter that can slot in behind CC Sabathia and the Rangers will be under pressure from a re-energized fan base to replace the franchise's ace.

Greinke's market is a lot like Beltre's -- in development.

 

[HacheMan]

Business Picks Up in Day Three Day Two of the Winter Meetings functioned as a mere appetizer for all the juicy rumors and transactions that we saw during Day Three, including a shocking signing that just about nobody saw coming. Let's get caught up.


[SIZE=+1]Getting Bold in Boston[/SIZE]

One of the fun things about the Winter Meetings is that occasionally a deal will go down that runs counter to everything we have have heard in the media. That's exactly what happened late Wednesday night, as the Red Sox stunned the baseball world by signing Carl Crawford to a seven-year, $142 million contract.

In the hours leading up to the surprising deal, we heard that the market for Crawford was "too crazy" for the Red Sox to get involved and that most believed he was a near lock to end up with the Angels. However, don't forget that Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein told Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston on Tuesday night that "anything is possible" in regards to Crawford. It was easy to take that as a "never say never" statement at the time, but it sure reads like foreshadowing in retrospect.

And so, the Red Sox have secured Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez within the space of four days, giving them two of the best players in the game at their respective positions and putting the rest of baseball on notice. Those two aren't coming cheap, though. Including Gonzalez's pending contract extension, the Red Sox are set to invest approximately $300 million on their newest acquisitions. No pressure, guys!

The Crawford signing also means the Angels are left standing at the alter with a pocketful of cash. The assumption is that they will now go after Adrian Beltre, easily the best position player left on the market. He would also fill a need for the club at third base. Let's just say that Beltre's agent Scott Boras will be happy to accommodate them ...for the right price.


[SIZE=+1]Ace in the Hole[/SIZE]

Now that Crawford is on his way to Boston, look for the Yankees to continue to do everything they possibly can to sign Cliff Lee. They reportedly offered the free-agent left-hander a six-year deal worth approximately $140 million on Wednesday, but the looming reality -- especially after the recent deals for Jayson Werth and the aforementioned Crawford -- is that they will have to add a seventh year. That's the logic Lee's agent Darek Braunecker will use, anyway.

Just don't expect a deal to go down at the winter meetings. Braunecker left Orlando on Wednesday and it wasn't clear if he would return. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reported late Wednesday night that Lee would likely make a decision this weekend.

Rangers president Nolan Ryan told T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com on Wednesday night that the organization was on the fence about adding a sixth year to their initial offer, so we can't see them going anywhere near seven. The Yankees play by their own rules and are likely the only team willing to take that leap of faith.

Oh, and remember the pair of "mystery teams" that offered a seven-year contract to Lee on Tuesday? Turns out one of them was the Red Sox. Yeah, they were just trying to give Lee's agent some leverage in talks with the Yankees. It's on in the American League East.

Anyway, assuming the Rangers ultimately concede on Lee, they could ramp up their efforts to trade for Zack Greinke or consider moving Neftali Feliz to the starting rotation and possibly sign Rafael Soriano, the best closer available. The big names are dropping quickly, but there are still plenty of pieces left in this Hot Stove puzzle.


[SIZE=+1]Safe at First[/SIZE]

Wednesday kicked off with both Chicago teams securing first baseman, as Carlos Pena inked a one-year, $10 million contract with the Cubs and Paul Konerko stayed with the White Sox for three years and $37.5 million.

Pena batted just .196 this past season with the Rays, but also slugged 28 home runs and was finished among the league leaders with 87 walks. He should enjoy playing half of his games at Wrigley Field, which is traditionally a very friendly environment for left-handed power hitters. Scott Boras described his client's new deal as a "pillow contract," which is designed to help the 32-year-old first baseman reestablish his value and hit free agency again next winter.

It appeared that talks between Konerko and the White Sox hit a bit of a snag on Tuesday, but other teams that were courting the veteran first baseman considered it a foregone conclusion that he would eventually re-sign with the Pale Hose. Konerko, who turns 35 in March, will earn $12 million over the next two seasons, $6.5 million in 2013 and $1 million in deferred money from 2014-2020.

With Konerko and the recently-signed Adam Dunn in tow, the White Sox now have a pretty fearsome one-two punch for the middle of their lineup. The pair combined for 77 home runs this past season.


[SIZE=+1]Shortstop Swap Meet[/SIZE]

The Rays came close to sending Jason Bartlett to the Orioles on Tuesday, but after talks fell apart, they came to a tentative agreement on Wednesday night to ship the shortstop to the Padres for left-hander Cesar Ramos and right-hander Adam Russell.

Bartlett made $4 million in 2010 and is primed to take home even more through the arbitration process this winter. He batted just .254/.324/.350 with four homers and 47 RBI this past season and is unlikely to match his 879 OPS from 2009 while playing half of his games in the pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. With the younger and cheaper Reid Brignac poised to take over the starting shortstop job in Tampa, it was a pretty easy call to swap him for a pair of arms who could contribute to a reconstructed bullpen next season.

While talks with the Rays fell apart, the O's were able to reach an agreement late Wednesday night to acquire J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris from the Twins in exchange for right-handers Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey.

Hardy, 28, earned $5.1 million this past season while batting .268/.320/.394 with six home runs and 38 RBI over 340 at-bats. He became expendable after the club secured exclusive negotiating rights with Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Assuming the Twins are able to sign him, Nishioka would likely play second base and Alexi Casilla would be the shortstop.

 

[HacheMan]

Goodbye Orlando The final day of the Winter Meetings usually isn't much to write home about. Nearly everyone bails right after the Rule 5 Draft is over and this year was no different. So, while not a whole lot happened in Orlando on Thursday, there's still plenty of intrigue left to keep that Hot Stove fire burning, at least for a little while longer. Here's a few items of interest.

[SIZE=+1]The Rangers Make a Roadtrip[/SIZE]

Fresh off the news of Carl Crawford's seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox, the Yankees reportedly added a seventh year to their offer for free agent left-hander Cliff Lee on Thursday. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that it was one of several contract offers presented by the Bombers and could be for as high as $161 million, the exact same deal CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees in December of 2008.

The Rangers weren't about to let their ace get away without a fight, so they made the trip to Arkansas on Thursday in order to meet with Lee and his agent Darek Braunecker. According to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the purpose of the visit was to increase their offer beyond five years. But will they go as high as seven? That is the question at this hour.

Following the meeting with Lee, Rangers owner Chuck Greenberg held a conference call on Thursday night. However, those looking for any sort of big announcement were sorely disappointed. Greenberg said that the Rangers have made a couple different offers to Lee, but declined to discuss any specifics with the press. The only thing he would say is that their proposal was a "substantial commitment in years and dollars" and that Lee is now "weighing his options." That's all we're going to get for now, though Lee could make a decision as soon as this weekend.

[SIZE=+1]Buying Out Bruce[/SIZE]

Here's one deal that did go down on Thursday. The Reds locked up outfielder Jay Bruce to a six-year, $51 million contract extension. The deal includes a $13 million option for 2017 and a partial no-trade clause.

Bruce, who turns 24 next April, was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter as a "Super Two." Thanks to the new deal, the Reds have bought out at least his first two years of free agency. It's a great value for the Reds through what figures to be Bruce's prime seasons and is nearly a dead-ringer for the six-year, $51.25 million contract ****** Upton signed with the Diamondbacks in March.

Bruce batted .281/.353/.493 with 25 homers, 70 RBI and an 846 OPS over 509 at-bats with the Reds this past season. He's already one of the best defensive right fielders in all of baseball and now that it appears he has finally figured out left-handed pitching (.277/.352/.547 with an 899 OPS in 2010), a true breakout season shouldn't be far away.

[SIZE=+1]Oh no, Olivo[/SIZE]

Miguel Olivo probably has some thank you cards to fill out this weekend. After watching John Buck sign a three-year, $18 million contract with Marlins and Rod Barajas agree to a one-year, $3.25 million contract with the Dodgers, Olivo was somehow able to fetch two years and $7 million from the Mariners.

Olivo, 32, batted .269/.315/.449 with 14 home runs, 58 RBI and a 765 OPS with the Rockies this past season. Those are adequate numbers for a catcher, especially in the power department, but he batted just .193/.225/.313 with three home runs and 16 RBI after the All-Star break. Olivo has a modest career batting line of .246/.283/.427 and is likely to suffer playing half of his games in the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. While he should be the starter over Adam Moore in Seattle next season, those in mixed leagues can safely ignore him.

The big winner here? Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos. He deftly acquired Olivo from the Rockies last month and proceeded to offer him arbitration. Since Olivo declined and signed a contract with another club, the Blue Jays will receive a sandwich pick in next year's draft. Nicely played, A.A.

[SIZE=+1]Catcher For Hire[/SIZE]

Russell Martin, who was non-tendered by the Dodgers last week, was one of the hottest commodities at the Winter Meetings. Last we heard on Thursday night, four teams have offered him contracts, including the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and, you guessed it, a mystery team. It wouldn't be the Hot Stove without a mystery team reference, right?

Martin is originally from Ontario, so Toronto looks like a natural fit, but he could play a prominent role with either the Yankees or Red Sox, as Jorge Posada is expected to be a full-time designated hitter next season and Jarrod Saltalamacchia still has an option remaining if he doesn't make the team during spring training.

This isn't to say that Martin is a lock to be healthy or productive, for that matter. He has turned in consecutive near-identical mediocre seasons at the plate and is currently recovering from a season-ending hip fracture. Ultimately, it will be interesting to see if Martin ends up with a multi-year deal, or will be forced to take a "pillow contract" in order to restore his value, similar to Carlos Pena's one-year, $10 million deal with the Cubs this week.

 

[HacheMan]

CarGo Locked Up? We're busy putting together the 2011 edition of the Rotoworld Draft Guide and magazine, but it's probably about time we checked in on some of the bigger storylines from around the league here in column form.

[SIZE=+1]The Rangers May Be Closing In On Beltre[/SIZE]

The hot stove is set to WARM at this point and the free agents that remain unsigned are mostly of the scrap heap variety. But there are some exceptions.

Adrian Beltre batted .321/.365/.553 with 28 home runs and 102 RBI in 2010 for the Red Sox while playing his typical brand of excellent defense at the hot corner, and yet he is still without a team because of an asking price that is believed to be in the $85 million range. That could change soon. Not the asking price, but the teamless part.

Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes heard from a source Monday that the Rangers and Beltre were nearing agreement on a massive contract. That was shot down later by MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, but it's quite apparent that the two sides are talking and Beltre isn't going to feel comfortable hanging on much longer without a team to call his own.

The Angels, right now, appear to the Rangers' only competition. The Athletics dropped out a few weeks back because Beltre disapproved of their seemingly generous five-year, $64 million proposal.

If Texas does indeed lock up Beltre, the defense on the left side of their infield will be spectacular. Elvis Andrus is already a talented defender at shortstop and Beltre is one of the best defensive third basemen in the game.

Oh, and the 31-year-old Beltre has already proven the kind of offensive numbers that he is capable of in a cozier ballpark. The Rangers' homer-happy stadium tends to bring out the best in power hitters of all types. It's a marriage that could work really, really well if GM Jon Daniels decides to go all in. He should have plenty of expendable cash laying around from the club's failed pursuit of left-hander Cliff Lee, who wound up signing with the Phillies.

[SIZE=+1]CarGo To Make A Permanent Home In The Rockies?[/SIZE]

The Rockies took some heat earlier this winter for signing shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to a hearty six-year extension worth $119 million.

Tulo was coming off a career year that saw him blast 27 home runs against a .315/.381/.568 batting line and opponents of the new contract argued that the Rox were crazy for negotiating such lofty terms in a situation where the player had all the leverage.

The Rockies must have brushed that criticism aside, because they're about to do the same exact thing with dynamic 25-year-old outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

CarGo, as they call him out in Denver, posted a sparkling 974 OPS, 34 home runs and 117 RBI last season for the Rockies, batting .336/.376/.598 along the way and picking up a couple of MVP votes. He also won a Gold Glove for his fine play in the outfield.

Now the Rockies are about to hand him a shiny new seven-year, $80 million deal, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post.

Both Tulo and CarGo look to be sure-thing perennial All-Stars, but how many times has that been said about others and how many times have those others flopped? There's a good chance that everything will work out just fine and the Rockies may well win the National League West crown every season through 2017. But paying out big money before that money is due is most certainly a risky tactic. Both youngsters were still a couple of years from free agency.

[SIZE=+1]Simon Says: "It Was An Accident, He Was My Friend."[/SIZE]

Orioles reliever Alfredo Simon appears to be in serious trouble back in the Dominican Republic, his native country.

According to reports, the right-hander turned himself into authorities this morning and admitted to the shooting of a firearm that caused the death of 25-year-old Michel Esteban Castillo. He's claiming that it was all an accident and that Castillo was his longtime friend, but that doesn't change the fact that a man is dead and that his younger brother, Starlin Castillo, is also gravely injured because of Simon's gunfire.

There aren't many English language publications tracking the story, but rough translations of Spanish-based reports have pretty much painted the scene.

Simon was shooting off a gun in celebration of the new year late Friday night. Some of the stray bullets, shot either directly up in the air or at an unfortunate angle, struck Castillo and his brother and now the elder Castillo is dead.

Authorities have requested that Simon be held for three months to a year as the case is investigated as thoroughly as possible. Whatever happens, it seems highly unlikely that he will be in Orioles camp come spring. The 29-year-old faces a penalty of up to 30 years in jail if proven guilty and convicted.

 

[HacheMan]

Cracking the WHIP WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per innings pitched) is one of those categories most owners are forced to live with in standard fantasy leagues, for better or worse. It's a statistic that has been lumped in with the sabermetrics crowd, even though it's not a particularly effective way to evaluate a pitcher.

The main criticism is that WHIP combines something based on a pitcher's skill (throwing strikes, limiting walks, strikeouts) with how many hits a pitcher allows, something that is often based on luck. Because BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is generally out of a pitcher's control, and thus can fluctuate from year-to-year, WHIP is rendered as a pretty fractured representation of true skill.

We don't need WHIP to tell us that Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright are excellent pitchers. We know that already. And yes, pitchers with a low ERA tend to have a low WHIP. These two categories usually go hand in hand. But very often, much like with ERA, unlucky pitchers will slip through the cracks.

Take Carl Pavano as an extreme and recent case. In 2009, he finished with a 5.10 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 33 starts between the Indians and Twins. Pretty ugly, don't you think? Well, not so much when you really look into it. While he produced a solid 147/39 K/BB ratio over 199 1/3 innings, he was arguably the most unlucky pitcher in baseball with a .335 batting average on balls in play and a stand rate of 66.1 percent. Meanwhile, last season, he posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 32 starts. What changed here?

A few things, really. He issued just 1.51 BB/9 last season, as opposed to 1.76 BB/9 in 2009. That certainly helped. His ground ball rate also shot up from 43.4 percent to a career-high 51.2 percent. A high groundball rate isn't always a harbinger of success, but Pavano was fortunate enough to have a much better defense behind him. The Indians were one of the league's worst in 2009 and the Twins weren't much better down the stretch. But with an improved defense last season, Pavano finished with a .286 batting average on balls in play and a 74 percent strand rate, both better than the league average.

Combine that with Pavano's elite command and you have a pitcher who saw his WHIP improve by .18, despite his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) sitting at 4.01. In 2009, his xFIP was 3.96. In short, his fortune went from one extreme end of the spectrum to the other. By the way, Pavano is a candidate for regression this season, even though he is expected to stay in Minnesota.

While some people will tell you that a ground ball pitcher like Pavano is a better bet than a flyball pitcher -- and that's true to a certain extent -- but there are some pros and cons to both. Flyball pitchers will always carry the risk of home runs -- and possibly an inflated home run per fly ball ratio -- but keep in mind that fly balls can be easier outs than ground balls. That's just one of the reasons why Ted Lilly has managed to finish in the top ten among starting pitchers in WHIP in each of the last two seasons, despite being one of the most notorious flyball pitchers in the majors.

And, again, depending upon the quality of the defense behind them, ground ball pitchers can also give up more unearned runs than fly ball-types, resulting in longer innings and more chances for hits, runs and quite possibly, losses. One type of pitcher isn't necessarily better than the other, especially if we're talking about WHIP.

You don't have to put together spreadsheets in order to figure this out. Just keep it simple and try to ignore the WHIP category as much as possible on draft day. If you want to speculate on who could be helpful for your team in 2011, you'll want to examine a pitcher's strikeout rate, walk rate and K/BB ratio, all fine indicators of future success.

I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't give you at least one example of a pitcher who is a solid bet for a rebound in 2011. With that in mind, consider Tampa Bay's James Shields. He posted an awful 5.18 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last season, despite an excellent 187/51 K/BB ratio over 203 1/3 innings. What gives?

Well, Shields suffered from an acute case of gopheritis in 2010, serving up 34 home runs or 1.50 HR/9. Only Arizona's Rodrigo Lopez was worse among qualified starters. Shields was also the victim of a .354 batting average on balls in play and 68.4 percent stand rate, both below the league average. It was really a perfect storm of bad luck.

And it's not like he was giving up significantly more fly balls than before. They only went up one percent from the year previous. Velocity? Just fine. In fact, he averaged 91.5 mph on his heater, the highest of his career. And wouldn't you know it, he struck out a career-high 187 batters last season. The skills are still there. I would be shocked if Shields' ERA didn't improve by at least a full run in 2011. And oh yeah, his WHIP will follow suit.

I'm not naive enough to tell you that a pitcher's strikeout rate, walk rate and K/BB ratio are the only things that matter for fantasy owners. There are other variables to keep in mind, such as a pitcher's home ballpark and the quality of the team he pitches for, among other things. But I'm a strong believer that if you target pitchers who routinely excel in the areas mentioned above -- even those coming off a down year -- your WHIP should really take care of itself.

 

[HacheMan]

Early ADP Outliers Can we really glean anything from ADP (Average Draft Position) data at this time of year? Many fantasy owners are still in Hot Stove mode, so it will take a little while before this information becomes more useful. Likewise, you'll find that many sites begin with their own default -- and often arbitrary -- player settings which can immediately render mock draft data inaccurate and unreliable.

Zach Sanders, friend of Rotoworld, already did a thorough takedown of ADP data for Roto Hardball earlier this week and while I agree with him to a certain extent, I don't think we should dismiss this information entirely. Ultimately, the best way to get a feel for where players are being drafted is to participate in mock drafts in multiple places. The truly ambitious among us may want to take an average of what you find at Mock Draft Central, Couch Managers, Yahoo! and ESPN. If you're drafting in a Y! league, for instance, you will want to pay very close attention to their default rankings in order to identify players who will be overvalued or undervalued on draft day.

I wouldn't sweat ADP data too much right now -- it's only January -- but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be paying attention to some early trends. While I fully expect to see some correction with the following players in the weeks and months to come, these current rankings are particularly egregious.

[Note: ADP data courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com]

Chris Carpenter (RHP, Cardinals) Current ADP: 48.03

Carpenter has back-to-back excellent seasons under his belt, but how he is currently being drafted ahead of his teammate Adam Wainwright is a real head-scratcher. The younger Wainwright had more wins, more strikeouts and less walks than Carpenter last season. He also outpaced him in FIP and xFIP. Not only do I expect Carpenter to fall a bit in the rankings by March, but look for Wainwright to be among the top five starting pitchers selected on draft day.

Jose Tabata (OF, Pirates) Current ADP: 222.57

The day of the sleeper may be dead, but by this early data, some people are still missing the boat on Tabata. The 22-year-old outfielder batted .299 with 61 runs scored and 19 stolen bases in just 102 games with the Pirates last season. It wouldn't be crazy to think he can score 80 runs and steal 30 bases with a full season's worth of at-bats. Considering that Domonic Brown and Desmond Jennings -- two guys who aren't a lock to even be in the major leagues on Opening Day -- are currently being drafted before him, Tabata is the very definition of undervalued.

John Lackey (RHP, Red Sox) Current ADP: 126.27

I couldn't believe it when I saw it, but Lackey is currently being drafted right between Clay Buchholz and Mat Latos. Seriously. I won't deny that Lackey looked better as last season wore on (3.97 ERA and 88/26 K/BB ratio after the All-Star break), so he's actually a pretty nice rebound candidate, but not if you have to pay full price. In fact, I'd have a tough time including him among the top 50 starting pitchers right now.

Ian Stewart (3B, Rockies) Current ADP: 118.71

Judging by his early draft position, you'd think Stewart is a lock to play everyday. Sure, he's the starting third baseman on paper right now, but don't forget that the Rockies added Jose Lopez and Ty Wigginton this offseason, two players who are also capable of playing third base. Stewart's power potential gives him plenty of value, but anybody who picks him will need to secure some insurance. I'd knock him down a few pegs here.

Max Scherzer (RHP, Tigers) Current ADP: 178.95

Could it be that Scherzer's poor start to last season left some fantasy owners with a bitter taste in their mouths? That's the only way I can explain this one. Scherzer was one of the best pitchers in baseball after returning from his demotion last season, posting a 2.46 ERA and 158/54 K/BB ratio over his final 23 starts, spanning 153 2/3 innings. He should be one of the top 25-30 starting pitchers off the board on draft day, not hanging out near Jeff Niemann and Jorge De La Rosa.

Chris Iannetta (C, Rockies) Current ADP: 252.67

Would you believe that Iannetta is currently the 23rd catcher off the board? Complete madness. While he batted just .197 last season, he also slugged nine home runs in just 188 at-bats. He has 43 home runs since the beginning of the 2008 season, sixth most among catchers. And that's in just 810 at-bats. I'd take his power upside over the likes of his former teammates Miguel Olivo and Yorvit Torrealba, both of whom are being drafted higher right now.

Chone Figgins (2B, Mariners) Current ADP: 92.65

That's right, some people still think Chone Figgins is a top-100 player in mixed leagues. Granted, he did bat .286 with a .349 on-base percentage after the All-Star break last season, but 132 of his 156 hits for the season were singles and he drove in a grand total of 35 runs. And while he managed to steal 42 bases, he only scored 65 runs thanks to a pathetic M's lineup that doesn't look much better right now. I'd take the upside of Brian Roberts, Kelly Johnson, or heck, even Aaron Hill over him right now.

Andre Ethier (OF, Dodgers) Current ADP: 38.75

I'm an Ethier fan, but this is a little bit on the early side, don't you think? It's certainly possible that he could top 30 home runs again -- his flyball and HR/FB rates look pretty steady -- but if I'm choosing an outfielder this early, I want someone who can contribute in multiple categories. ****** Upton (ADP: 40.20), Andrew McCutchen (50.96), Alex Rios (ADP: 65.16) and Hunter Pence (ADP: 87.35) all look like much better values.

Alex Gonzalez (SS, Braves) Current ADP: 154.16

Perhaps the most ridiculous example of them all, Gonzalez is currently the 10th shortstop off the board in mixed leagues. Sure, it doesn't take much to make an impact at the shortstop position, but let's not overrate Gonzalez based off his fluky power surge last April. This is a guy who batted .243 with a .289 on-base percentage after the start of May and hit six home runs in 267 at-bats with the Braves. That he is being picked over Ian Desmond, Asdrubal Cabrera and Erick Aybar is questionable. That he is being picked over Starlin Castro is just crazy.

Grady Sizemore (OF, Indians) Current ADP: 90.44

Can somebody please check the calendar? I'm a little confused here. Sizemore is currently making his way back from microfracture surgery on his left knee last June, which is no small potatoes. Not only am I concerned about a potential drop in speed, but also how he'll be able to drive the ball at the plate. He could end up being a major bargain, but until he starts playing in actual games again, it's all guesswork. As of right now, there are better bets to be found with a top-100 pick in mixed leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

Paying Papelbon
The start of spring training is a little over one month away and our player news page is about to be inundated with notes about Opening Day pitchers, depth chart changes and position battles. We'll be covering everything from A to Z.

Before the baseball world turns its eyes from the hot stove to a cluster of small ballparks in Arizona and Florida, let's wrap up a batch of recent storylines...

[SIZE=+1]That 'Stache Just Belongs In Minnesota, Right?[/SIZE]

We think so.

The Twins agreed to a two-year contract with mustached right-hander Carl Pavano a full 13 days ago but didn't officially sign off on the deal until Wednesday evening.

Pavano, 35, will earn $8 million this season and $8.5 million next season on what is essentially a two-year, $16.5 million contract. He can also earn another $500,000 via performance-based incentives.

It's a good deal. Pavano is old, but his velocity hasn't taken a major hit and he managed a cool 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 32 starts last season. He also struck out 117 batters and walked only 37 in 221 innings of work, playing a key role in the Twins' march to the American League Central crown.

As fantasy-centric folks, we love that Pavano is back in the Twin Cities. The new and widely loved Target Field held home runs better than any park in the majors last year and will keep the right-hander relevant in fantasy leagues all year despite an underwhelming strikeout rate.

The White Sox have improved offensively this winter with the addition of designated slugger Adam Dunn and they've made their intentions known about topping the Twins for the division title. But Minnesota is again armed and ready to fight it out.

[SIZE=+1]Red Sox Fork Over $12 Million To Papelbon[/SIZE]

Baseball's arbitration process is generally a positive thing in that it can reward deserving players with large sums of cash before they are able to get a taste of free agency. But there are other times when it just seems sort of silly.

The Red Sox avoided the need for an arbitration hearing with closer Jonathan Papelbon on Tuesday by agreeing to a $12 million contract for 2011. It's a ridiculous sum of money, especially when you consider that Papelbon posted a career-high 3.90 ERA and eight blown saves last season.

He's not nearly as effective as he once was and he should fall out of the elite rung of fantasy closers in most draft guides this spring. Despite the lofty salary, the Red Sox could choose to install Daniel Bard in the ninth inning this summer after one or two of Paps' hiccups.

Bard already has closer-type stuff and is ready to become a fantasy star.

[SIZE=+1]Yankees, Yankees, Yankees. Pettitte, Pettitte, Pettitte. [/SIZE]

That's how the headlines are reading on some sites these days. The Yankees' season ended on Friday, October 22 -- almost three months ago -- and yet veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte has not reached a decision as to whether he wants to return for a 16th major league season or hang up his cleats for good.

Pettitte has his reasons for the extended delay and it sounds like his decision has more to do with his desire to spend more time with his family than it has to do with money. That's all fine, but the wait is killing the Yankees.

Brian Cashman and Co. won't want to hand a contract to a guy like ****** Duchscherer or Kevin Millwood without first getting a decision from Pettitte, and it sounds like those two scrap heap free agent starters might soon be nearing agreements with other clubs.

Pettitte needs to be fair. He needs to make a decision soon so that the Yankees can either move on or plan a new strategy for their starting rotation. Oh, and so we know whether to recommend selecting the left-hander in upcoming fantasy drafts. OK, that was a bit selfish.

[SIZE=+1]Meche Rides Into The Sunset, His Wallet Far Skinnier[/SIZE]

Royals starter Gil Meche shocked the baseball world Tuesday when he announced his sudden retirement from the game.

The 32-year-old explained in a short statement that he would have required another surgery on his throwing arm in order to pitch this year and that he felt bad about taking up $12 million worth of the Royals' 2011 budget while resting and rehabbing.

That's right. He left $12 million on the table.

Professional athletes have the right to cash every single one of the checks given to them by professional sports franchises, but it's awfully refreshing to find an athlete who is so aware of what that paycheck means. By leaving it behind, he's allowing the Royals to grow. The club already has a ton of young talent creeping toward the majors and now they might have some flexibility to build around those prospects. A tip of the cap here to Mr. Meche.

 

[HacheMan]

Offseason Injury Report Our player news feed is starting to blow up with all sorts of "best shape of his life" stories. Isn't it great?

While we chuckle at many of those type of stories, they are at least a sign that we are inching ever closer to the start of spring training. With that in mind, here's a rundown of fantasy relevant players who are currently working their way back from injury and/or surgery. I merely scratched the surface with the names listed below, so keep it locked to our MLB player news page for the latest updates on each player's status for 2011.
www.therx.ws
Carlos Santana (C, Indians)

Indians first base coach and catching instructor Sandy Alomar told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer last week that Santana "feels great" and is currently doing baseball activities. Of course, this is wonderful news, given how gruesome Santana's knee injury looked last August. The 24-year-old backstop had the lateral collateral ligament of his left knee repaired, which isn't anything to sneeze at, but the procedure wasn't nearly as invasive as teammate Grady Sizemore's microfracture surgery. It sounds as if he's right on track for Opening Day, so barring a setback, he should be one of the top five catchers on draft day.

Adrian Gonzalez (1B, Red Sox)

Buster Olney of ESPN.com has done a bang-up job this week updating Gonzalez's progress from shoulder surgery. The new Red Sox first baseman tossed a ball for the first time on Monday with his brother Edgar and is tentatively on schedule to begin swinging a bat at the end of February. Red Sox manager Terry Francona acknowledged this week that Gonzalez will likely be behind the other players when spring training begins, but this shouldn't be enough to drop him on draft boards. Needless to say, he should greatly benefit from leaving PETCO Park behind.

Dustin Pedroia (2B, Red Sox)

The Boston Globe recently asked Dustin Pedroia if he was 100 percent recovered from a broken left foot. His answer? "Does a bear (go to the bathroom) in the woods?" In case you have any more doubts, here's a video of Pedroia training with his good buddy Andre Either (and Rob Bradford of WEEI) at Keith Poole's Training Zone in Arizona. Looks pretty spry, wouldn't you say? The "Laser Show" should be one of the top fantasy targets at second base, regardless of where he hits in the lineup.

David Aardsma (RHP, Mariners)

The Mariners were shopping Aardsma this winter, but those plans have been put on hold now that the right-hander is recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip. Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik recently cast doubt on his status for Opening Day by saying that the surgery was more extensive than originally expected, but Aardsma is a bit more optimistic. We won't know much more until he begins a throwing program in a couple weeks. For now, Brandon League is the must-have insurance policy.

Joe Nathan (RHP, Twins)

Nathan missed the entire 2010 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March, but we've heard nothing but positive things so far this winter. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire recently told the Bismarck Tribune that Nathan is throwing at "70 to 75 percent with no pain and good extension." It sounds like he will be on track for the start of the season, though it is entirely possible that Twins will ease him into his familiar closer role, with Matt Capps getting some early save chances.

Jake Peavy (RHP, White Sox)

Peavy underwent surgery to repair a detached latissimus dorsi muscle near his right shoulder last July. Since this was a very unique procedure, it's very difficult to know what to expect for this season. The good news is that he is already throwing off a mound and according to what White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper told the Chicago Tribune, "he's feeling better about his command." The White Sox are hopeful that Peavy will be able to contribute sometime in 2011, but he is likely to begin the season on the disabled list. Things could change during spring training, but he looks like a late-round flier at best right now.

Magglio Ordonez (OF, Tigers)

Ordonez is apparently "100 percent" after having season-ending surgery on his right ankle last August. The 37-year-old was having somewhat of a bounceback season at the time of the injury, batting .303 with 12 home runs and 59 RBI over his first 84 games. The Tigers were encouraged enough by his progress to bring him back on a one-year, $10 million contract. He's expected to bat third in Jim Leyland's lineup this season, but is unlikely to top 20 homers, limiting his impact among fantasy outfielders.

Chipper Jones (3B, Braves)

Jones tore the ACL in his left knee last August, prompting many to wonder if it was going to be the end of the road for one of the best switch-hitters of all-time. To the contrary, Jones underwent surgery and has every intention of coming back for 2011. So far, so good. Jones, who turns 39 years old in April, has already resumed hitting and Braves general manager Frank Wren told David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution earlier this month that the veteran should have no restrictions going into spring training. Of course, that doesn't change the fact that he was a major durability risk, even before the surgery. Fortunately most fantasy owners will have a chance to see him in action before taking a chance on him as a late-round flier.

Johan Santana (LHP, Mets)

Perhaps the biggest wild card of them all, Santana underwent season-ending surgery last September to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. He was recently cleared by team doctors to begin tossing a baseball sometime before spring training, but will begin the season on the disabled list. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson has wisely avoided any specific timetables for the left-hander, but our best guess right now is that he'll be out until around June or July. Worth stashing? Sure. But it's impossible to know what pitcher he'll be once he returns.

Ricky Nolasco (RHP, Marlins)

Nolasco tried to pitch through a meniscus tear in his right knee last season but was eventually shut down and underwent surgery in September. The 28-year-old right-hander said during a radio appearance earlier this week that he is "probably a little bit ahead of schedule" and that he'll have no restrictions during spring training. Nolasco has turned in back-to-back disappointing seasons from a fantasy perspective, despite an elite K/BB ratio, so chances are he'll be available for a bargain price in most mixed leagues.

Other notable players coming back from injury and/or surgery include (in alphabetical order):

Andrew Bailey, Scott Baker, Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, Kyle Blanks, Mike Cameron, Chris Coghlan, Michael Cuddyer, Mark DeRosa, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Freese, Brett Gardner, Carlos Guillen, Conor Jackson, Bobby Jenks, Josh Johnson, Nick Johnson, Jair Jurrjens, Derrek Lee, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, Kris Medlen, Kendry Morales, ****** Morneau, Daniel Murphy, Brad Penny, Manny Ramirez, Francisco Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Freddy Sanchez, Grady Sizemore, Kevin Slowey, Geovany Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Mark Teixeira, ****** Upton, Chien-Ming Wang, Brandon Webb, Kevin Youkilis, Joel Zumaya

 

[HacheMan]

AL-only Post-Hype Hitters
Most baseball fans are wired to need instant gratification when it comes to their team's top prospects. It's hard not to; scouting reports that detail players as future Hall of Famers and franchise saviors make it impossible not to crave immediate results. The truth is, most prospects need at least one and usually two major league seasons under their belt before revealing their true talent. Some, such as Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria, succeed the minute they hit the show, but they are the exception, not the rule. If you look at top prospects that turned into great major leaguers, you'll find that many -- Adrian Gonzalez, Delmon Young, Carlos Gonzalez and Billy Butler just to name a few -- struggled before finding their major league groove. It becomes easy to write off a guy that does not have instant success, but if you can correctly identify a player that's finally ready to cash in on his talent, you have the chance to come away with some great value. Below are six "post-hype" hitters worth keeping an eye on.

C Matt Wieters, Orioles

Named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year in 2008, Wieters hit .288/.340/.412 over 354 plate appearances at the major league level in 2009, an impressive slash line for a 23-year-old rookie catcher. His sophomore campaign was underwhelming at best, as he managed a slash of .249/.319/.377 with only 11 homeruns over 502 plate appearances.

2011 outlook: The stage is set for Wieters to finally break out. His .287 BABIP mark in 2010 was .069 points below his rookie year posting, a sign that some of his struggles can be chalked up to bad luck. Dig deeper and you'll see Wieters actually improved in his ability to hit sliders and curveballs but regressed substantially against fastballs. The struggles against the heater won't last and the improvement against the secondary pitches is reason for additional optimism. Wieters will provide great value now that most owners view him as a bust.

2B Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Gordo's sophomore season was marred by injuries and month-long slumps (.159/.258/.159 in May), ending with a final line of .252/.317/.378 and just 9 HRs and 4 SBs. It was a far cry from his rookie line of .270/.347/.460 with 14 HRs and 7 SBs, leading some to label Beckham as a bust at the age of just 23.

2011 outlook: There's plenty of reason for 2011 optimism. Manager Ozzie Guillen showed time and again his willingness to stick with Beckham despite the struggles, a stubbornness that bodes well for 2011. Guillen has already named Gordo the Sox's No. 2 hitter, meaning he'll hit behind Juan Pierre and ahead of some combination between Alex Rios, Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Quentin. Though expectations should be tempered, it's not unreasonable to think Beckham can hit at least 15 HRs, steal 10 bases, rack up 80 runs, and post an OPS of at least .825.

SS/2B Reid Brignac, Rays

Three seasons of mediocrity across AAA and the majors make it easy to forget that Brignac was once ranked as BA's 17th best prospect in 2007 and 39th best in 2008. He slashed .256/.307/.385 over 326 plate appearances for the Rays in 2010, playing primarily at second base.

2011 outlook: Brignac is now Tampa's everyday shortstop after the team traded away Jason Bartlett during the offseason. While he's a long shot to ever post a solid on-base percentage, his 20-homer potential and decent batting average make him an intriguing late round option. The AL-only shortstop crop is less than inspiring, and Brignac has the potential to emerge as a great value pick in the final rounds of your draft, especially if he holds dual eligibility in your league.

OF Travis Snider, Blue Jays

Snider has worn the post-hype albatross each of the past two seasons and has not shown enough over 612 career at bats to shed the label. Ranked as BA's No. 6 overall prospect in 2009, Snider started 32 of the team's first 37 games in 2010 until a wrist injury forced him onto the disabled list. He's flashed elite pop in his brief MLB career, slugging 25 homeruns and 40 doubles, yet his .767 OPS falls far short of expectations.

2011 outlook: It's a make or break season for Snider. He's scheduled to be the team's opening day starter and could post monster numbers if he stays healthy and keeps his head screwed on straight. While both are big ifs, few players possess Snider's upside. Like teammate Adam Lind in 2009, Snider is primed to have a breakout season. If you're looking for a high-upside flier in the later rounds, Travis Snider is your man.

OF Michael Saunders, Mariners

Saunders was an 11th round draft pick of the Mariners in 2004. He emerged as a prospect in 2007, slugging 14 HRs and stealing 27 bases at High-A High Desert. The Mariners' lack of outfield depth led to a call-up in 2009 and Saunders struggled, failing to homer in 129 PAs. 2010 started off just as bad, as Saunders hit .138 with an awful .341 OPS for AAA Tacoma in April. Seattle's lack of depth again forced a premature call-up, this time in early May. However, the second time around wasn't nearly as bad. Saunders did strike out a ton (29.7 K%) but showed nice pop (10HRs) and posted a decent 10.7 BB% over 327 plate appearances.

2011 outlook: Saunders' value hinges heavily on the Mariners' handling of the Milton Bradley situation. As of now Saunders stands to serve as the M's 4th outfielder and may even start the season in the minors. Should the team cut Bradley -- a real possibility after his January arrest -- Saunders would assume left field responsibilities. It's a situation that should be monitored by AL-only leaguers, as Saunders could throw up 15 HRs and 15 SBs with a .250-.260 average if given a full slate of at bats.

OF Desmond Jennings, Rays

Jennings -- BA's No. 6 overall prospect heading into 2010 – is a career 299/.384/.441 hitter over five seasons in the minors. He has elite speed and plus base-running ability, including a 37-for-41 posting at AAA Durham prior to his September call-up to the big leagues. Jennings hit just .190/.292/.333 with 0 HRs and 2 SBs over 24 plate appearances at the major league level after earning the call-up, leading to his placement on this list. It's a miniscule sample size, but ugly enough to scare away fantasy players that don't pay attention, especially considering a large amount of time could pass before Jennings finds himself on Tampa's 25-man roster.

2011 outlook: VP of baseball Andrew Friedman indicated in early December that Tampa would not hand Jennings the vacant left field job, and after the team brought in both Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, it would be a surprise if Jennings did not start the season in AAA. A lot can change during spring training, but right now Jennings is shaping up to be a nice midseason post-hype pickup for stolen bases. Keep his name stashed.

 

[HacheMan]

Well, Well ... Wells?
These last few weeks before spring training are rough. January is not a nice month in most of the baseball-watching world and exciting news slows to a near halt once the hot stove season has passed.

"Did you hear, Brad Penny is in the best shape of his life!"

So is everybody.

Let's dissect some of baseball's worthwhile storylines...

[SIZE=+1]Gone Is Vernon ... Toronto Is Having A Great Week[/SIZE]

The weather up north might not be all that pleasant at the moment, but the Toronto front office is smoking hot. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos somehow convinced the Angels, who had been dormant and reserved through the first three months of the offseason, to suddenly take on outfielder Vernon Wells and the $80-plus million remaining on his eyesore of a contract.

But the Angels didn't simply acquire Wells. They traded for him, and gave up two productive players in Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera in order to land him.

On a roll, Anthopoulos flipped Napoli to the Rangers just yesterday for reliever Frank Francisco, who proved capable of saving games in Texas and is likely to beat out Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Jason Frasor for Toronto's ninth inning role this spring. Napoli might have done well in a flexible role for the Blue Jays, slugging homers at catcher, first base and designated hitter, but pushing him out of town should help expedite the development of young and powerful catcher J.P. Arencibia.

In the last five days, the Blue Jays have rid themselves of a massive and overbearing contract commitment, filled a need in their bullpen and acquired a quality backup outfielder. I taught my dog to flip a treat off his nose and catch it in his mouth.
www.therx.ws
[SIZE=+1]The Cardinals Are Certain To Sign Pujols[/SIZE]

It's going to happen. At least, everybody thinks it's going to.

On Tuesday, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com published quotes from a healthy batch of baseball agents, owners and front-office executives who believe that the Cardinals will indeed reach a long-term contract extension with Albert Pujols before the slugger's personally set deadline -- the start of spring training.

"It's hard for me to believe he's going anywhere," said an unidentified official of one big-market team.

"C'mon, where's he going?" asked an agent. "The only problem they're going to have is figuring out all the deferrals."

There are more of those in the article, some carrying even greater optimism.

I spent a little time on the topic over at NBC Sports' HardballTalk earlier this month. As a Cardinals fan both in awe of Albert's Hall of Fame production level and concerned about what kind of payroll the club can realistically support, these are strange times.

It's all about the money. If you're his agent, you are asking for the moon.

Now it's up to Cardinals GM John Mozeliak to either talk Pujols' agent down or else it's up to Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt -- a billionaire -- to open the purse strings. The National League's most successful franchise will have to move its payroll to a different height to not only re-up with Albert, but also to stay competitive in the eight or nine years that the first baseman's new mega-deal will run. It'll be a big one. An ugly, ugly thing.

[SIZE=+1]Locking Up Wandy...[/SIZE]

The Astros are in the middle of a ton of changes. They've cut payroll, begun relying on what's available in their farm system and done what any aging team in their position would do -- try to get younger. It's a strategy that is likely to take Houston down a path of several consecutive seasons of frustration, but a focus on the draft and international free agent market should eventually lead to improvement. A good and stable improvement, not one fueled by high-risk veteran contracts.

Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that the Astros are completely committed to their own cost-effective plan.

On Tuesday evening, a report from Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes revealed that the club had signed left-handed starter Wandy Rodriguez to a three-year, $34 million contract extension that will take care of his final arbitration season and his first two years of free agency.

Wandy finished the 2010 season with a string of dominant starts, but he's 32 years old and, by all accounts, regressing. He should do fine over the course of the contract, but the Dominican-born southpaw can't lift the 'Stros past the Reds, Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals all on his own. Brett Myers can't do it, either.

 

[HacheMan]

AL-only Post-Hype Pitchers
Earlier this week I broke down some AL post-hype hitters, and now it's time to move to the rotation. The post-hype pitcher is a lot more "hit or miss" and "fragile," as an early career setback (either an injury or early struggles) to an elite hitting prospect usually just delays his progress, while one to a pitcher can sometimes prove career threatening. Last year Aaron Gleeman listed Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Ian Kennedy, David Purcey, and Garrett Olson as some post-hype AL-pitchers worth targeting. Both Hughes and Buchholz made the All-Star Game and proved to be difference makers for fantasy owners that were lucky enough to scoop them up. Kennedy played well after moving to the Diamondbacks, while Purcey and Olson each failed to produce any value in fantasy. This year's crop of AL post-hype starters has a similar feel to last year's group.
www.therx.ws
Brian Matusz, Orioles

If you want to know why the Orioles have been so bad for so long, check out their first round draft picks over the last decade. Over that period of time the ADP of the O's first pick was 6.4, and not a single one of those players selected made the All-Star Game. It's only fitting then that the ace of the post-hype rotation would be a former O's first-round pick. Brian Matusz -- the No. 4 overall pick in the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft and Baseball America's No. 25 and No. 5 prospect in 2009 and 2010, respectively -- had a dominant 2009 (his first and only year of minor league ball), posting a 1.053 WHIP and 3.78 SO/BB ratio over 113 innings between High A and AA. He earned himself an August call-up, pitching 44.2 innings to a 4.63 ERA and 1.478 WHIP. Matusz opened 2010 on the team's 25-man roster and posted a 4.30 ERA and 1.343 WHIP over 175.2 innings, including yielding just 10 total earned runs over his last eight starts.

2011 outlook: Matusz is shaping up to be 2011's version of David Price, minus the potent offense and spectacular bullpen necessary to facilitate a 19-6 record. Compare the sophomore campaigns of both Price and Matusz and you'll see that the latter actually had a much better SO/BB ratio in addition to an almost identical WHIP and ERA+. It's hard not to love what Matusz brings to the table, as the 24-year-old already features four pitches and the command of a seasoned veteran. He isn't going to blow anyone away with his fastball and he still needs to work on inducing groundballs, but the total package makes him one of baseball's brightest up and coming stars. He'll be undervalued on draft day due to his underwhelming early statistics, but look for him to provide great returns in every category aside from wins.

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello -- BA's No. 21 prospect pre-2008 and pre-2009 -- was a popular name heading into 2010 after posting an impressive 3.96 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 13-9 record in 2009 as the then youngest player (20) in the majors. The former No. 27 overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft failed to fulfill the lofty expectations set forth for his sophomore campaign, pitching to a 10-12 record with a 4.92 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Porcello threw his fastball 70.5% of the time in 2010 (compared to 77.3% in 2009) and his slider 17.8% of the time (compared to 5.4% as a rookie). The effectiveness of both pitches dropped, though he did improve on both his curveball and changeup.

2011 outlook: While most pitchers Porcello's age are just graduating college or in the mid-minors, the 22-year-old is set to embark on his third major league season. His SO/BB ratio improved .50 points last season, and another year working with pitching coach Rick Knapp should help him harness both his fastball and slider. He may never be a strikeout machine (5.4 SO/9 as a minor leaguer and 4.7 in the majors), but he has the potential to win at least 16 games in 2011 with a stellar ERA and WHIP.

Derek Holland, Rangers

Holland -- the Rangers' 25th round pick in the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft -- rightfully earned attention after posting a 0.769 WHIP over 26 innings at AA Frisco in 2008. BA named him their No. 31 prospect heading into 2009, and it wasn't long before Holland found himself with the big league team, logging 138.1 major league innings as a 22-year-old in 2009. A March knee injury kept him from cracking the Rangers' 2010 opening day roster, though he pitched well in five games during May before coming down with rotator cuff inflammation. Holland impressed with a 1.87 ERA over 11 mid-season starts with AAA Oklahoma and then returned to the Rangers in August to strike out nearly a batter an inning in 10 starts and four relief appearances down the stretch.

2011 outlook: The baby-faced 24-year-old is a post-hype prospect not because of major league struggles but because injuries have allowed him to fly under the radar. He won't know his role for the 2011 season until the end of spring training, but as of now it's looking like he'll win the Rangers' No. 5 starter job. His value hinges on the team's handling of Neftali Feliz and the progress Brandon Webb shows during the spring. Holland is a legitimate talent that is projected to put up some solid numbers; right now it's just a matter of whether he'll pitch out of the rotation (where he'll have fantasy value) or out of the pen.

Luke Hochevar, Royals

Consider Hochevar a post post-hype prospect, as he made his major league debut in 2007 and has already logged 387.2 major league innings. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 MLB Amateur draft was named BA's No. 32 and No. 63 prospect pre-2007 and pre-2008, respectively, but struggled in his first two major league seasons. Hochevar finally appeared headed in the right direction when he posted a 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 48.0 innings at AAA Omaha in 2009, but struggled after getting called up to the show in mid-May that same season and then missed a large chunk of 2010 after suffering an injury to his elbow.

2011 outlook: Hochevar is slated to open the season as the Royals No. 1 starter, which should tell you all you need to know about the state of their rotation. It was just two seasons ago that a healthy Hochevar posted fantastic numbers at AAA over a significant number of innings, and while it's not unreasonable to think 2011 will be the year he finally puts everything together, the odds are against him. At this point he shouldn't be drafted in any format, but a strong spring training should at least spark the interest of AL-only leaguers. Those that have already started preparing for their drafts should throw his name on their list of potential sleepers.

 

[HacheMan]

Park Factors
Fortunately for fantasy owners, we are well past the days of simply analyzing a player by the numbers on the back of their baseball card. Granted, we still track those traditional statistics in order to determine who wins a particular fantasy league, but advanced metrics have provided greater context for how those numbers are actually accomplished.

One such example of these metrics is a stadium's park factor. I'm sure you've already heard of it, which is why I won't go over the concept in great detail here. However, just in case you aren't familiar, this metric's primary purpose is to account for the impact of a stadium on a player's performance.

You probably hear a lot about "sample size" these days. That's important here. Making judgments based on one season of data can be tricky business, especially since we're talking about a stadium where only 81 games are played per season. That's why for the purposes of this article, I will use Baseball-Reference's three-year park factors for batters, in order to give us a more accurate representation of how a park plays. Keep in mind, Target Field just opened its doors last year and Yankee Stadium and Citi Field have only been around for two seasons, so we'll make due with what we have as far as those stadiums are concerned.

This isn't meant to be an end-all, be-all assessment of parks (you can find far more detailed information in the Bill James Handbook or a website like Stat Corner, just to name two examples), so just use this as a rough guide as you begin to examine some potential targets for draft day.

To keep it simple, just know that a stadium with a park factor above 100 means it is regarded as a hitter-friendly environment and a park factor below 100 indicates a pitcher-friendly environment.

Let's get started, shall we?

Coors Field (Rockies) - 115
Wrigley Field (Cubs) - 108
Fenway Park (Red Sox) - 106

Surprise, surprise. Yes, Coors Field is far and away the best place to hit in the major leagues. It's not as insane as the 129 (!) we saw when the stadium first opened in 1995, but after trending downward more recently -- with the help of the humidor -- the stadium has begun to pull away from the pack once again.

This isn't a scientific example, but consider that the Rockies and their opponents combined to score an average of 10.59 runs per game at Coors Field last season as opposed to an average of 7.77 runs per game away from Colorado. The advantage for hitters is very, very real. Just ask Carlos Gonzalez, who has a 1.092 career OPS at Coors Field.

Wrigley was considered pitcher-friendly just a decade ago, but check out how the stadium's single-season park factor has evolved since 2003: 98, 109, 100, 102, 107, 105, 111, 106. These days, it's consistently among the most-hitter friendly parks in the sport. Keep this in mind for two of Chicago's newest additions, first baseman Carlos Pena and right-hander Matt Garza, who have left the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field behind. They could be going in opposite directions this season.

Fenway Park continues to be one of the most favorable environments for hitters, despite the fact that the 37-foot Green Monster in left field robs plenty of would-be homers. The good news? Those hits often turn into doubles, which is why you're hearing so much excitement about the inside-out swing of Adrian Gonzalez now that he's no longer being held hostage inside PETCO Park. He could push 50 doubles by virtue of playing half of his games at Fenway.

U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) - 105
Dolphin Stadium (Marlins) - 105
Yankee Stadium (Yankees) - 105

While Boston's park reduces home runs, U.S. Cellular Field is quite the opposite. In fact, according to the 2011 Bill James Handbook, it's been the best environment for home runs over the past three seasons. Yes, even better than Coors Field. And who did the White Sox sign this offseason? Oh, just Adam Dunn, one of the most prolific and consistent sluggers in all of baseball. "The Cell" is a bit more friendly to right-handed batters than it is to a left-handed hitter like Dunn, but it's still a much better setting than Nationals Park. In a word, delicious.

Sun Life Stadium -- or whatever it is called this week -- was consistently in the mid-to-high 90s from 1996-2007, but the advantage has surprisingly turned to the hitters in recent years. Maybe hitters can concentrate better because the games are so sparsely attended? I'm half serious about that. On the other end of the spectrum, this is still a below-average environment for home runs, so combine that with a move back to the National League and Javier Vazquez looks like a pretty good gamble in drafts this spring. Keep in mind, we'll have to start from scratch when the club moves to a new park next season.

Like I mentioned above, we only have two years of data to work with here, but you don't need any spreadsheets to recognize that the new Yankee Stadium is at the very least, a homer-friendly park. There were 223 home runs hit at Yankees Stadium last season. And while that was down from a major league-high 237 homers in the stadium's inaugural season, it was still the second-highest total in the major leagues. There's no reason to think that trend will suddenly change.

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (Rangers) - 105
Chase Field (Diamondbacks) - 104
Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Orioles) - 101

Rangers Ballpark faded a bit towards the end of the aughts, but thanks to the hot Texas temperatures, low humidity and cozy dimensions, it has never strayed too far away from its hitter-friendly roots, particularly in the power department. I already upgraded Mike Napoli after he was traded to the Blue Jays last week, but depending upon how Ron Washington plans to divvy up the playing time, I might like him even more playing half his games in Arlington.

The Diamondbacks are well aware that Chase Field is a notorious hitters park. And they aren't happy about it, either. Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall called it "the launching pad of baseball" last September and even considered installing a Coors Field-like humidor and/or moving the fences back. However, we haven't heard anything about it since. With that in mind, I'm naturally a bit skeptical that Daniel Hudson -- a fly ball pitcher -- will be able to replicate the success he had last season. I know, I know. Real easy to say when someone had a 1.69 ERA down the stretch, but the home run ball is inevitable.

Camden Yards has maintained a very hitter-friendly reputation since it debuted in 1992, but it's existence has actually been quite erratic. It favored hitters in the beginning, then was pitcher-friendly for about a decade beginning in 1996, but now it's starting to trend back to its roots. The park has slightly favored left-handed power over the past three seasons, at least according to the 2011 Bill James Handbook, but that left center field fence is mighty inviting for right-handed hitters, too. Keep that in mind if you're thinking about Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds or J.J. Hardy on draft day.

Comerica Park (Tigers) - 101
AT&T Park (Giants) - 101
Citizens Bank Ballpark (Phillies) - 101

Comerica Park was the definition of a pitcher's park after it opened in 2000, but that all changed with a shift in the left field dimensions prior to the 2003 season. True to form, it's now a prime spot for right-handed power hitters. That's good news for the newly-signed Victor Martinez, who batted .400 (62-for-155) with 12 home runs, 39 RBI and a 1.173 OPS from the right side of the plate last season.

While AT&T Park understandably carries the reputation as a pitcher's park, it has actually trended slightly above-average as a hitter's park for a few years now. This isn't so much because of home runs -- it's actually a very difficult place for left-handed power hitters -- but those would-be taters usually translate into doubles and triples, particularly those hit to the right field wall.

Bet you thought Citizens Bank Park would be higher? Me too. It's routinely called a bandbox -- and the numbers show that it's still an excellent venue for power-hitters, regardless of handedness -- but the park has actually trended closer to neutral in recent seasons, primarily due to a big drop in production by right-handed batters. Though with a ridiculous starting rotation and a lefty-heavy lineup, the Phillies are still in pretty good shape.

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Target Field (Twins) - 101
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum (Athletics) - 100
Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) - 100

The early perception of Target Field is that it is a slight pitcher's park. A big reason for that is because it suppressed home runs more than any park last season. Fair enough. But at the same time, it was also a very favorable park for left-handed batters and was among the league leaders in doubles and triples. We need to see more, but it seems the quirkiness of that right field wall will come in handy. One thing to keep in mind is that the Twins plan to remove the pine trees beyond the center field wall, as some hitters complained that it was difficult for them to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand.

The Coliseum has trended neutral lately, but I don't blame you for being a bit skeptical. Aside from a few single-season outliers, we have over 40 years of data to suggest that this park favors pitchers. It has more foul territory than any other stadium, which does damage to a player's batting average right away.

Rogers Centre is probably another one you expected to see a little higher. That's understandable given the home run barrage we witnessed last season, but let's not go too crazy based on one year. That being said, one promising piece of information is that despite Rogers Centre being symmetrical, the stadium has favored right-handed power hitters over the past three seasons. The pull-happy Jose Bautista should be happy to hear that.

Kauffman Stadium (Royals) - 99
PNC Park (Pirates) - 99
Nationals Park (Nationals) - 99
Great American Ballpark (Reds) - 99

Perhaps the biggest surprise of this grouping -- heck, maybe even this entire article -- is that Great American Ballpark has trended from hitter-friendly to slightly pitcher-friendly over the course of the past three seasons. However, similar to Citizens Bank Park, it's still a homer haven. According to the 2011 Bill James Handbook, it has been the best home run ballpark in the National League for right-handed hitters over the last three seasons. Let's just say I'm not expecting it to stay pitcher-friendly for long.

Kauffman Stadium is a great place to a hit, just not for home runs. Those looking for Billy Butler to have a sudden breakthrough power-wise, take heed. And while Nationals Park plays pretty neutral thus far, left-handed power hitters have a distinct advantage over right-handed hitters in PNC Park. That's good news for Pedro Alvarez, who had 12 home runs in 185 at-bats there last season.

Turner Field (Braves) - 98
Angel Stadium (Angels) - 98
Miller Park (Brewers) - 98
Citi Field (Mets) - 97

Turner Field has traditionally played pretty neutral, but has trended slightly pitcher-friendly for a few years now. Angel Stadium is another one that is typically in the middle of the pack, and even though it favors right-handed power, we still think Vernon Wells will miss Rogers Centre. Miller Park is a great environment for left-handed power hitters, but has been a pitcher-friendly park since opening in 2001. You know, just in case you needed more reason to like Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum in the National League.

As mentioned above, we only have two years of data on Citi Field, but we're pretty comfortable to say that this is a pitcher's park. The stadium played closer to neutral in its first year, but offense really suffered in year two. This is especially the case with right-handed power hitters, who found it the most difficult place to hit a home run in the National League. That being said, the alley in right field produces plenty of triples, greatly benefiting speedsters like Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan.

Busch Stadium (Cardinals) - 97
Tropicana Field (Rays) - 96
Minute Maid Park (Astros) - 95
Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) - 95

Frankly, I'm surprised Busch Stadium is even ranked this high, considering it's reputation as an extreme pitcher's park. Anyway, Albert Pujols' exploits are all the more impressive, given that the 2011 Bill James Handbook says this stadium has been the most difficult place for right-handed batters to hit home runs over the last three seasons. Would it be wrong to wonder if he signed elsewhere as a free agent?

"The Trop" has given a slight edge to pitchers over the past decade, but it suddenly became the toughest park in the American League to score runs last season. It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, the new simplified rules for the catwalks and/or the new astroturf will have on the park's rating moving forward.

Fancy finding Minute Maid Park here, huh? Since having a park factor of 107 in its first season in 2001, the park has gradually shifted from neutral to more pitcher-friendly in recent seasons. However, it is still a favorable park for left-handed power.

Dodger Stadium but has gotten back to its pitcher-friendly roots since peaking with a single-season park factor of 105 in 2007. It's not a very good place for batting average, but at least plays above average for left-handed power, which helps explain why Andre Ethier has enjoyed so much success there during his career. 63 of his 98 home runs have been at Chavez Ravine.

Progressive Field (Indians) - 93
Safeco Field (Mariners) - 93
PETCO Park (Padres) - 91

There have been a couple single-season outliers along the way, but pitchers have had the advantage at Progressive Field for the past 10 years. According to the 2011 Bill James Handbook, it has been the least homer-friendly park in the American League over the past three seasons. Yes, even worse than Safeco. It's especially difficult on right-handed batters, who have to contend with that 19-foot left field wall in order to hit home runs. You probably aren't going to have many Indians position players on your fantasy team, anyway, but keep this data in mind if you're thinking about Carlos Carrasco as a sleeper on draft day.

Safeco Field is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the American League. And there really isn't any doubt about it. Check out the stadium's single-season park factors since its first full-season in 2000 : 91, 98, 93, 100, 93, 99, 94, 97, 96, 97, 90. Right-handed power hitters have an especially tough time, so it's no surprise that soft-tossing fly ball southpaws like Jason Vargas have found their niche here. Vargas had a 2.86 ERA at home last season compared to a 4.85 ERA on the road, by the way.

And finally, we've made it. This shouldn't be a surprise to most of you, but no place suppresses offense more than PETCO Park in San Diego. The stadium has been around for seven seasons now and has never had a single-season park factor higher than 95. And that was last season.

The roomy PETCO is easily the most difficult environment in the majors for left-handed power hitters, which makes Adrian Gonzalez's 40-homer season from 2009 that much more impressive. There are pluses and minuses to calling PETCO home, but the Padres will never have any shortage of pitchers willing to sign there with hopes for a rebound season. Aaron Harang is just the latest example.

 

[HacheMan]

2011 Catcher Overview
With the magazine and the online draft guide in the can, it's time for me to get back to writing columns each Monday. I'll be doing position overviews from now through the middle of the spring, and I'm starting off with the underrated and overrated players behind the plate.

Catcher Overview

Underrated

Carlos Santana (Indians) - They're such similar talents that Santana would bring to mind Victor Martinez even if he come up in the Indians chain. The 24-year-old switch-hitter started his big-league career by hitting .345 with four homers and 15 RBI in 18 games last June. He struggled over the next month before suffering a season-ending knee injury on a play at the plate, but he was far from overmatched. Santana should be 100 percent this season, and he's likely to bat cleanup for the Indians. That could result in far more RBI opportunities if Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera can stay healthy in front of No. 3 hitter Shin-Soo Choo. He probably won't match the other elite catchers when it comes to batting average, but he can put up power numbers with any of them and he might also steal a handful of bases. He should be worth $20.
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Jorge Posada (Yankees) - I've always been fond of catcher-eligible players set to start at other positions, and Posada will be used primarily as a designated hitter in his age-39 season. That should help him stay healthy and get his highest number of at-bats since he had 506 in 2007. And it's not just about staying in the lineup: by escaping all of the minor injuries that catchers normally play through, he could well be a more effective hitter. I expect him to bounce back to at least 20 homers and 70 RBI.

Chris Iannetta (Rockies) - There's still reason to be wary, but since the Rockies declined to commit dollars to bringing in a veteran backup, this should be Iannetta's year. The 27-year-old has struggled to hit for average the last two years, but he did deliver 25 homers and 79 RBI in 477 at-bats while sharing time with first Yorvit Torrealba and more recently Miguel Olivo. If he hits .240 and retains the power, he could well be a top-three catcher in NL-only leagues.

Overrated

Brian McCann (Braves) - I don't like listing him here, but there's just no way I'd draft McCann over Buster Posey or Santana in a mixed league at this point. Due in part to his eye problems, McCann has been striking out more and he's had his average drop from .301 in 2008 to .281 in 2009 and .269 last year. His power numbers remain steady, but he hasn't scored many runs even while hitting cleanup for the Braves and he might be dropped in the order this year following the Dan Uggla acquisition. He's my No. 5 catcher overall, and while he still ranks second in the NL, he's not worth nearly what Posey is.

Geovany Soto (Cubs) - Soto was a terrific player last year, hitting .280/.393/.497 in 105 games for the Cubs. Still, that resulted in a mere 47 runs scored and 53 RBI. In 2009, he scored 27 runs and drove in 47 in 102 games. Former manager Lou Piniella preferred hitting him seventh or eighth no matter how well he played, and Mike Quade didn't exactly rock the boat after taking over in the second half. Maybe Soto will bat sixth in between Carlos Pena and Alfonso Soriano, but that's the best-case scenario. I don't see him measuring up when it comes to runs and RBI, so he comes in 10th on my board.

John Jaso (Rays) - Jason doesn't figure to add much power as a sophomore, and since he's a weaker defender than Kelly Shoppach, he'll find himself in danger of losing playing time if he slumps. The Rays will probably make him their leadoff man or No. 2 hitter against righties initially, but I suggest staying away. AL-only leaguers would be smart to try Shoppach as their No. 2 catcher, as he could potentially contribute 12-15 homers.

Carlos Ruiz (Phillies) - Coming off his career year, Ruiz may well remain extremely valuable to the Phillies, but he's a poor bet for fantasy purposes. The 32-year-old has never received 380 at-bats in a season, hit 10 homers, scored 50 runs or driven in 60. Even after last year's .302 mark, he sports a .260 career average. He'll probably finish a lot closer to his 2009 line (.255-9-43 with 32 runs scored) this year and that just won't make him a top-15 catcher.

Sleepers

Russell Martin (Yankees) - Martin hasn't hit in 2 1/2 years, but the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all wanted him anyway, suggesting that these teams see something fixable. He'll hit at the bottom of the Yankee lineup, but that still puts him in a good position to drive in and score runs. If the power comes back -- he hit 39 homers in his first 2 1/2 seasons -- he could reemerge as a top-five catcher.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Red Sox) - Having missed out on Martin, the Red Sox will give Salty a long look behind the plate. The switch-hitter has been a disappointment several years running, but he's in a great situation, particularly since he should be allowed to focus mainly on hitting right-handers. Saltalamacchia is a career .273/.343/.422 hitter in 512 at-bats against righties, compared to .206/.266/.326 against lefties. He could chip in 12 homers and 50-60 RBI.

Josh Thole (Mets) - Odds are that he'll open the season batting seventh or eighth, but Thole might be the Mets' best choice to bat second against right-handers. He came in at .299/.381/.402 in 174 at-bats versus righties last season. He's not going to top a half-dozen homers or 50 RBI and he will sit against lefties in favor of Ronny Paulino, but because of his ability to hit for average, I rank him eighth among NL catchers.

Other thoughts

Buster Posey almost joined Santana in the underrated category. He's the clear No. 2 catcher on my board, and he actually overtakes Joe Mauer for the top spot in 4x4 leagues. I imagine he'll start getting drafted higher as the spring goes on. … My early guess for Matt Wieters is .274/.350/.458 with 19 homers and 63 RBI. That makes him my No. 7 catcher. … It looks like the Blue Jays will go with J.P. Arencibia after all. He should be good for 15-18 homers, but he'll hurt a team's average in the process and I don't see him driving in a whole bunch of runs at the bottom of the lineup.

 

[HacheMan]

So Long, Andy
With Rotoworld's Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide just about ready to go live, it's time to check in with one last Hot Stove Blog. Look for articles on position battles, sleepers and busts and even a mock draft or three in the coming weeks as we build up toward the start of spring training and fantasy draft season.

Life needs a fast forward button sometimes. And a rewind, I suppose.

Update: The Rotoworld Online Draft Guide is now live!

[SIZE=+1]Pettitte Goes Quietly Into The Night...[/SIZE]

Veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte officially announced his retirement from the game of baseball at a press conference Friday inside Yankee Stadium.

It took longer than expected and probably came as a shock to most of the baseball world, but Pettitte finally reached a conclusion this week. He wants to spend more time with his family and less time under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium.

The Yanks were reportedly offering a contract worth nearly $12 million, and they might have gone up had he asked, but it wasn't really ever about the money. Pettitte is simply worn out, and wants to be a more prominent figure in the development of his young kids.

He will go out on top, and with a 3.88 career ERA. Some think he belongs in the Hall of Fame. Our guess is he barely misses, despite the remarkable career-long postseason success. There are too many pitchers with better stats who have been left out of the Hall for his case to hold up in a vote.

[SIZE=+1]Checking In On The Pujols Negotiations Is Futile[/SIZE]

The two sides are keeping really quiet. The best of the best national baseball reporters have nothing, because there's no quality information to pass along. All we can do is guess, and guessing gets us nowhere.

The facts: Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols wants a deal done by the start of spring training. If a deal is not done, he will test the free agent waters at the conclusion of the 2011 season.

Pujols has been the most productive hitter in baseball for the last 10 years, with a career batting line of .331/.426/.624 and 10 straight 32-plus homer seasons. If he hits free agency, the suitors will be plentiful. Forget what you've heard, the Yankees and Red Sox will both be checking in.

It's all very tense in St. Louis at the moment. There's a sense that a massive contract extension might cripple the Cardinals, but there's also a desire to keep the best player in baseball around for the duration of his career. Tick. Tock. Mang.

[SIZE=+1]Pale Hose, Cuban Missile Reach Long-Term Pact[/SIZE]

Two great nicknames. Four more years.

The White Sox reached a shiny new four-year, $32.5 million contract extension on Thursday that will keep Alexei Ramirez in a White Sox uniform through at least 2015. The deal also carries a $10 million option for 2016.

Ramirez was finishing up a four-year, $4.75 million contract that he signed as an international free agent back in December of 2007.

The 29-year-old shortstop boasts an improving .283/.321/.430 batting line through his first three major league seasons and has added power in recent years. He has also become one of the top defensive infielders in the game. It's the kind of deal that should work out well for both sides -- market friendly, but not inexpensive.

[SIZE=+1]Dye Likely Saying Goodbye...[/SIZE]

Veteran outfielder Jermaine Dye has been a free agent now for nearly 16 months. He sat out for all of the 2010 season because no team would guarantee him a roster spot and now he's considering hanging up his cleats entirely for the exact same reason.

Dye slugged 27 home runs in 2009 against a cool .250/.340/.453 batting line, but his lack of range defensively has scared away teams who prefer to have a flexible bench. Defense is a priority in the post-Moneyball era.

"I would still like to play, but I think my choices have passed and teams have gone with other people," the free agent told Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com on Wednesday. "I will continue to stay in shape and hopefully someone will call. If nothing gets done by the end of the spring, I may call it a career."

The 37-year-old is sitting on 325 career home runs and 1,779 career hits.

 

[HacheMan]

American League Prospects I'm aware that many things could change between now and Opening Day, but I thought this would be a pretty good time to name some of my favorite prospects for the 2011 season. There's a couple of prominent names left out, but that's primarily because I'm shooting for those who have a chance to contribute for the entire season.

By the way, Jesse Burkhart did a tremendous job writing up some of the game's top prospects in the new Rotoworld Draft Guide. Seriously folks, this thing has everything you need to get ready for draft day. It includes over 1,000 player projections, cheat sheets, updated depth charts and ADP data, among other things. We think it's pretty fantastic.

Anyway, I'll start with six of my favorite prospects from the American League and then we'll continue with the National League next week. Why six? Well, six is better than five, is it not?

Jeremy Hellickson (RHP, Rays)

I'm going to assume you've heard about this guy before. After all, Hellickson, who turns 24 in April, has been in the Rays' pipeline for quite a while now. The former 2005 fourth-round pick compiled an impressive 2.71 ERA over parts of six seasons in the minor leagues, averaging 9.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. And he made quite a first impression upon his promotion to the big leagues last August, becoming the first pitcher since 1920 to begin his major league career with three consecutive starts of at least six innings while allowing three hits or less. While he only gave us a brief sneak preview last season, it's easy to see that "Hellboy" has the goods to succeed for the long haul. Hellickson has excellent command and features four major-league ready pitches in his arsenal, including a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a plus-changeup.

Why you should care: The Rays traded Matt Garza to the Cubs in January, clearing the way for Hellickson to claim a spot in the starting rotation. He isn't exactly a groundball pitcher, which gives at least some reason for pause, especially in the slugger-heavy American League East, but the rookie right-hander should have immediate value across all formats. It's no large leap to think that he could emerge as the Rays' second-best starter by the end of the year.
www.therx.ws
J.P. Arencibia (C, Blue Jays)

Most fantasy owners were formally introduced to Arencibia when he made history in his major league debut last August. The 25-year-old backstop became the first player in the modern era to collect four hits and two home runs in his first major league game. It was a storybook afternoon, but Arencibia didn't come completely out of nowhere. The Jays picked him 21st overall in the 2007 draft and he was ranked as Baseball America's No. 43 prospect as recently as 2009. While his stock has taken a hit since then, he batted .301/.359/.629 with 32 home runs, 85 RBI and a .986 OPS for Triple-A Las Vegas last season. His plate discipline still leaves something to be desired and playing in the Pacific Coast league (and the hitter-friendly Cashman Field) likely helped his overall numbers, but most scouts like his power potential.

Why you should care: The Blue Jays let John Buck walk as a free agent and quickly swapped Mike Napoli to Texas just days after acquiring him in the Vernon Wells trade. Arencibia may not be the long-term answer behind the plate, as Travis D'Arnaud is a more highly regarded prospect, but it looks like the Jays are going to let him sink or swim this season. As our own Matthew Pouliot noted earlier this week, the right-handed hitting Arencibia should be good enough for 15-18 home runs with regular at-bats, but just be prepared for a low batting average.

Chris Sale (LHP, White Sox)

The White Sox were very aggressive with Sale after drafting him 13th overall last June. He became the first member of the 2010 draft class to reach the major leagues after tossing just 10 1/3 innings between High-A Winston Salem and Triple-A Charlotte. The young left-hander took the challenge in stride, posting a 1.93 ERA, four saves and a 32/10 K/BB ratio over 23 1/3 innings as a reliever down the stretch. At 6-foot-5 and 170 pounds, Sale is tall and lanky, so there have been some concerns about his durability as a starting pitcher, but it's hard to question his electric stuff. He averaged 96.3 mph on his fastball out of the bullpen last season while his slider emerged an above-average pitch.

Why you should care: Sale's fantasy value really hinges on what his role will be. The White Sox have talked about using him as a starting pitcher until Jake Peavy is is ready to return from shoulder surgery, but pitching coach Don Cooper wants the young left-hander to have a clearly defined role with the club. Sale would likely get some save chances if he remains in the bullpen, but Ozzie Guillen has a tendency to mix and match.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka (SS/2B, Twins)

Nishioka is a rookie by MLB rules, but he arrives stateside with a .293 batting average over seven seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan's Pacific League. The 26-year-old switch-hitter won the batting title with a .346 batting average last season and had the hits most in the Pacific League (204) since Ichiro Suzuki notched 210 in 1994. The Twins won exclusive negotiating rights in November by submitting a $5.3 million posting fee and the two sides eventually agreed to a three-year, $9.25 million contract with a $4 million club option for 2014. Nishioka has struggled with injuries at times and has shown limited power during his career, never topping 14 homers in a season, but he has averaged 28 stolen bases per season. While he has mostly played shortstop in Japan, many believe that he could be better suited for second base in the major leagues.

Why you should care: The Twins traded J.J. Hardy to the Orioles in December, so Nishioka and Alexi Casilla project to be the Twins' new middle infield duo. Nishioka is very much an unknown quantity at the moment, but he could pile up tons of runs scored hitting No. 2 in front of Joe Mauer and (hopefully) Justin Morneau. He's an obvious must-own in AL-only leagues, but could also be useful in mixed formats that have a MI (middle infielder) spot.

Kyle Drabek (RHP, Blue Jays)

As you probably know by now, Drabek is the son of former 1990 NL Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek. Originally a first-round pick of the Phillies back in 2006, Drabek was acquired by the Blue Jays in the Roy Halladay deal last offseason. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a solid 2.94 ERA over 27 starts with Double-A New Hampshire last season, averaging 7.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. The Jays called him up to the big leagues for three starts in September, where he managed a 4.76 ERA and 12/5 K/BB ratio over 17 innings. His command isn't quite there yet, but Drabek induces plenty of groundballs and features a fastball that sits in the low 90s and a 12-to-6 curveball which has proven to be a strikeout pitch in the minor leagues.

Why you should care: The Blue Jays have some options, but Drabek should be able to be able to claim one of the final two spots in the starting rotation during spring training. His command could get him into trouble at times, so while he's plenty promising, it's fair to expect some growing pains in the AL East. He's an obvious target in keeper and AL-only leagues, but feel free to wait and see in mixed formats.

Hank Conger (C, Angels)

Conger, who turned 23 last month, was selected No. 25 overall by the Angels back in 2006. While he struggled with injuries for the early part of his professional career, he has made some real strides over the past two seasons. Conger earned his first call-up to the big leagues last September after batting .300/.385/.463 with 11 home runs and 49 RBI over 452 plate appearances for Triple-A Salt Lake. A switch-hitter, Conger has shown moderate power and solid plate discipline in the minor leagues, but there have been some questions about his abilities behind the plate.

Why you should care: The Angels parted with Mike Napoli in the Vernon Wells deal, which opens the door for Conger to compete for the No. 1 catcher job during spring training. However, Mike Scioscia's fascination with the light-hitting Jeff Mathis may be his biggest roadblock to regular playing time. Conger is the best bat of the bunch, though, so AL-only owners should hope that he gives Scioscia no other choice.

Others to watch in 2011:

Dustin Ackley (2B, Mariners), Jake McGee (LHP, Rays), Michael Pineda (RHP, Mariners), Jesus Montero (C, Yankees), Desmond Jennings (OF, Rays), Mark Trumbo (1B-OF, Angels), Jordan Walden (RHP, Angels), Zach Britton (LHP, Orioles), Mike Moustakas (3B, Royals), Kyle Gibson (RHP, Twins)

 

[HacheMan]

2011 First Base Overview
Second in line for the position overviews is a position second to none right now: first base. Seven first basemen could go in the first two rounds of mixed league drafts, and Albert Pujols will go first overall in most of them.

I do agree with the consensus top seven. Here's how they're being selected in recent Mock Draft Central drafts:

Albert Pujols - 1st overall
Miguel Cabrera - 3rd overall
Joey Votto - 7th overall
Adrian Gonzalez - 8th overall
Mark Teixeira - 15th overall
Ryan Howard - 17th overall
Prince Fielder - 22nd overall

I have them in almost the same order, but I don't think they should go quite so high. Here's how I have them in my top 300:

Albert Pujols - 1st
Miguel Cabrera - 5th
Adrian Gonzalez - 14th
Joey Votto - 17th
Mark Teixeira - 21st
Ryan Howard - 35th
Prince Fielder - 38th

It would be nice to end up with one member of the group, particularly since the pool really thins out after the top 11. Still, I can't see using such early picks on Howard and Fielder when they're just not as good of bets as they were a couple of years ago.

First base/DH Overview

Underrated

Kendry Morales (Angels) - Morales is the one top-10 first baseman being undersold, at least in my estimation. He was on pace to hit .290-35-124 when he went down with a torn ACL one-third of the way through last season. I don't like that he'll probably hit fifth again, this time behind Vernon Wells, but it doesn't figure to last if Wells struggles. And if Wells actually has another good season, that wouldn't be such a bad thing for Morales either. I rank Morales eighth at first base, only a bit behind Fielder.

Derrek Lee (Orioles) - Expectations seem pretty low after Lee lost 200 points of OPS last season. However, he wasn't far off from being an MVP caliber player just two years ago, when he hit .306/.394/.579 from the Cubs, and he did rebound following a trade to Atlanta last season, hitting .287/.384/.465 in 39 games despite playing most of them with a torn thumb ligament. Never having played in the AL before, Lee will have some adjusting to do in Baltimore. Still, he's in a cozy ballpark, one that should help him get back to 22-25 homers. He's a strong CI option in mixed leagues.

Daric Barton (Athletics) - I don't see Barton emerging as a consistent 20-homer-per-year guy, at least not in Oakland, but he's still just 25 and getting stronger. He had 10 homers among his 48 extra-base hits last season, and he also chipped in with seven steals. Oakland's offense is guaranteed to be better this season, so Barton should improve his mediocre run and RBI numbers while hitting second or third for the team. He's no fantasy stud and he probably never will be, but the likelihood that he'll score 90 runs separates him from guys like Justin Smoak and Matt LaPorta when it comes to AL-only first basemen.

Overrated

Ryan Howard (Phillies)/Prince Fielder (Brewers) - These two ended up with pretty much the same fantasy projection for me: I have Howard at .271-39-122 and Fielder at .277-38-116. Those are fine power numbers, but with the batting averages, they just don't justify second-round selections. Howard hasn't topped .280 since his .313 season in 2006. Fielder has come in at .276, .299 and .261 the last three years. It's a side effect of home run totals dropping: most of those balls not leaving the park turn into outs, not doubles.

Paul Konerko (White Sox) - It's not exactly going out on a limb to say that Konerko won't duplicate the career season he turned in at age 34: all he did was top his previous best OPS by 45 points in a 2010 campaign in which offense was down throughout the league. It should help a bit that the White Sox have added Adam Dunn to hit in front of him, but Konerko is still due for a significant decline, particularly in batting average. He came in at .259, .240 and .277 in the three years prior to batting .312 last season.

Aubrey Huff (Giants) - Not that I'd put a whole lot of stock in it, but the truth is that Huff hasn't been good in back-to-back seasons since 2003 and '04. He's 34 now and he's never seemed like a great bet to age well, though there's no denying that he was an excellent player for the world champs last year. He'll probably come in closer to .275-20-85 this year, and it should be possible to get similar numbers from cheaper players.

Sleepers

Kila Ka'aihue (Royals) - The Royals had the money to go out and buy a name DH, but they declined to do so. Perhaps the job will end up going to Wilson Betemit, but there's little doubt Kansas City's best lineup features Betemit at third base and Ka'aihue at either first base or DH. The Royals had no one hit more than 16 homers last season, so they could definitely use Ka'aihue's power behind Billy Butler in the order. His fantasy upside is limited, partly because he won't hit for average and partly because he'll be toiling in a pitcher's park, but he could hit 20 homers and drive in 70 runs if given the opportunity.

Juan Miranda (Diamondbacks) - The Diamondbacks did a pretty horrible job of addressing their offense over the winter, but Miranda does have sleeper potential. In very limited action with the Yankees the last three years, he hit .253/.330/.458 over 83 at-bats. He's a platoon player at best and he won't even be a lock to make the team out of spring training, but he does have 20-homer ability. Like Ka'aihue, he won't be much to look at when it comes to batting average.

Brandon Belt (Giants) - The Giants haven't ruled out putting Belt on the Opening Day roster after he hit .352/.455/.620 with 23 homers at three minor league stops last season. The 2009 first-round pick will probably see time at first base and in left field this spring. If he makes the team, it will probably be as the primary first baseman, with Huff moving to left. Odds are that he'll spend at least the first two months in Triple-A, but he has a great deal of upside. A rookie season much like Buster Posey's is a possibility.

Other thoughts

- Dunn figures to make a strong bid for 40 homers in his White Sox debut, but his average will probably suffer as a result of the league switch. He's another in the overrated category. … Smoak and LaPorta are side by side in my rankings: I expect 20 homers from both, but subpar batting averages and poor run and RBI production. … Freddie Freeman is another who failed to make the sleeper list in large part because I just don't see strong run and RBI numbers on the way. He'll probably open the season hitting eighth for Atlanta, limiting his upside.

 

[HacheMan]

The NL's Hidden Gems
Spring training doesn't officially open until next week, but we don't care. It's time to declare this "baseball season."

The Rotoworld Online Draft Guide is now live and it features more great content than ever before. Want to take a look at a Mock Draft already? It's in there. Enjoy prospects? Take a look at our Top 100. Want projections and profiles on over 1,000 players? They're all in there, too.

Dominate your draft this season.

There are many different ways to win a fantasy league. Picking the right guys at the top of the draft can help, but identifying talent and production where others in your league don't is probably even more important. We call these hidden commodities "fantasy sleepers," and they can be found at all positions. Below, some names in the National League that are at least worth monitoring...

Aaron Harang, SP, Padres

The right-hander finished with a hideous 6-7 record, 5.32 ERA and 1.59 WHIP across 111-plus innings last season for the Reds and drew very little interest through the first couple weeks of free agency. But the Padres identified Harang as someone who might do well in the colossal confines of Petco Park, and so they snatched him up with a one-year, $4 million contract in early December. He should easily be worth the investment. Harang's tenure in Cincinnati came to a rough close, but much of that can be blamed on his tendencies as a flyball pitcher. And flyball pitchers don't have a prayer in the Reds' Great American Ballpark. His strikeout rates have always been good and he won't be taken deep nearly as much out in sunny San Diego.

Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves

The Braves haven't fully committed to Kimbrel as their closer for 2011 and they've even floated the possibility of having him split ninth inning duties with Jonny Venters. That should all change by mid-spring. Kimbrel, 22, is one of the best young relievers in the game and proved it last year when he rattled off 40 strikeouts over his first 20 ¨ø major league innings. That high strikeout rate isn't some kind of anomaly, either. He's been cutting batters down at an alarming pace since turning pro three years ago. In 2009, Kimbrel fanned 103 hitters in 60 minor league innings. In 2008, he struck out 56 batters in 35 ¨÷ innings. With a fastball that averaged 95.4 MPH last season and a slider that works as a deceptive out pitch, Kimbrel has all the tools to become a dominant ninth inning presence.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants

If the Giants hadn't won the World Series last October -- err, November -- Sandoval's highly disappointing 2010 season probably would have grabbed more headlines. But he took a comfortable back seat as Giants fans celebrated in Panda hats and was mostly absolved of his many wrong-doings while the club and its fans paraded through the streets of San Francisco. Sandoval did not enter spring training in good shape and then appeared to pack on about 40 pounds as the year went on. His numbers followed along on that ugly path and he wound up with a .732 OPS -- a whole 211 points lower than the stellar .943 OPS that he posted as a second-year player in 2009. Things have changed this winter. Sandoval looks downright svelte and should be ready to climb back into fantasy relevancy.

Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies

Fowler's days of inconsistent playing time are just about over. The Atlanta, Georgia native should have center field all to himself this season in Colorado and is poised for a fantasy breakout. Fowler struggled at the plate for much of 2010 and was even demoted to the minors at one point, but he has turned in productive batting lines at every level of the minor leagues and he has the ability to climb toward respectability in that department heading into his third full major league season. Of course, batting average and RBI totals aren't what make the 24-year-old attractive to prospective fantasy owners. Rather, it's the fact that he has swiped 40 bases in 58 chances over the last two years and is likely to be given more of a green light in 2011. Draft him for his stolen bases and consider the rest gravy.

Daniel Hudson, SP, Diamondbacks

Because the Diamondbacks were so far out of first place when the trade went down and because they remained very far from first place in the months following the deal, Arizona's brilliant late-July swap of Edwin Jackson for White Sox prospects Daniel Hudson and Daniel Holmberg largely flew under the radar. It was a brilliant move, made even more brilliant by Hudson's dominating second half. The 23-year-old right-hander turned in a 7-1 record, a 1.69 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over 11 starts with the Diamondbacks, striking out 70 batters and walking only 16 across 79 ¨ø innings. He's obviously not going to have that kind of success over the course of an entire season, but coming anywhere close would make him a top fantasy starter.

Drew Storen, RP, Nationals

For many, Storen is "that guy the Nats took in the first round the same year they got Strasburg." Which is true. Storen went nine picks after Stephen Strasburg in the first round of the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft. But the 23-year-old reliever out of Stanford University is going to begin painting his own legacy this season. Storen possess a high-velocity fastball that averaged 94.4 MPH in 2010 and a sharp slider that works well as a complimentary pitch. He also has a curve and changeup that will probably see a little more action as he continues his development. The Nationals haven't officially named him their 2011 closer, but that should change within the first couple weeks of Grapefruit League play. Storen has the goods to convert any and all save chances that the Nationals provide him this season.

David Freese, 3B, Cardinals

Since veteran Scott Rolen left town after the 2007 season, the Cardinals have gone through a mixed bag at the hot corner. Troy Glaus had one nice year in 2008, but injuries caught up to him in 2009 and St. Louis was forced into giving looks to guys like Brian Barden, Tyler Greene, Joe Thurston, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Khalil Greene and eventually Mark DeRosa. Last season, the tide shifted. At least for a couple of months. Freese, who was acquired by the Cardinals when they traded Jim Edmonds to the Padres in December of 2007, roared out to a .318/.386/.460 batting line over his first 201 plate appearances and tallied 31 RBI in his first 48 games. An ankle injury cut his season short and another ankle injury bit him this winter, but he's entering spring training in good health and is an intriguing option at a very shallow fantasy position. Let's just hope Tony La Russa doesn't fall in love with Nick Punto's grittiness.

Mike Minor, SP, Braves

It's easy to forget that Minor was a selection in the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft because he has already made a relatively big splash in the world of professional baseball. The 23-year-old out of Chapel Hill, Tennessee and eventually Vanderbilt University posted 146 strikeouts in 120 ¨÷ innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season before the Braves called him up to the majors in early August. Minor hit some rough patches in his first taste of the big leagues, but he also showed flashes of dominance via a cool 43/11 K/BB ratio and all signs point to him capturing Atlanta's fifth rotation spot this spring. He's young and not quite seasoned enough, but upside is something to invest in when making picks on draft day and he has gobs of it. We're thinking Minor might be capable of 160-plus strikeouts if given ample looks this season.

Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates

What do you get when you combine good on-base abilities with promising base-stealing potential? A fantasy star. Tabata never topped 10 home runs in a minor league season and probably won't ever be a big power threat in the majors, but he swiped 25 bags in 31 chances last year at Triple-A Indianapolis and he stole 19 bases in 26 chances once promoted to the big leagues. That's 44 stolen bases in 56 chances altogether in 2010. The 22-year-old also had strong on-base percentages throughout his time in the Pirates' farm system and he registered a respectable .346 OBP in his first introduction to the majors last season. The Pirates have tabbed Tabata as their starting left fielder for 2011. As long as he stays healthy, the kid is capable of doing serious damage on the basepaths.

J.J. Putz, RP, Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks had one of the worst bullpens in recent memory last season and made several moves this winter in order to change that fact. They picked up David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles for third baseman Mark Reynolds, and they also decided to buck up and buy a quality closer, signing Putz to a two-year contract worth $10 million. Putz was one of the most reliable setup men in baseball last season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 54 innings while striking out 65 batters and walking only 15. He has enjoyed success in the ninth inning in the past and should finally bring stability to the back end of Arizona's bullpen. We're guessing that he will get overlooked in some leagues because of the Diamondbacks' recent failures at closer.