MLB Betting Info - Sunday 4/17

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Sunday Rewind ...




Twins: first 3-game sweep of the Angels since April 2009 ... Minnesota has won 3 straight after starting 0-9


Oswaldo Arcia hit a walkoff RBI single in the bottom of the 12th inning as the Twins took down the Angels 3-2 on Sunday to sweep the three-game series.

Minnesota entered the three-game set with an 0-9 record, so the weekend sweep probably came as a big relief. Arcia went 3-for-5 with a walk on Sunday and he was 2-for-4 with a home run and two RBI on Saturday. The 24-year-old is now slashing .294/.368/.471 in 17 at-bats this season. If he keeps raking, he should keep getting playing time.




Jose Altuve went 2-for-4 with three RBI in the Astros' defeat of the Tigers on Sunday.

Altuve opened the game's scoring with a leadoff solo shot in the bottom of the first inning before adding a two-run single in the bottom of the fourth. The second baseman is off to a terrific start this season, boasting a .314/.397/.627 batting line with four home runs, eight RBI, and 13 runs scored in 13 games.




Luke Gregerson notched his fourth save of the season Sunday in the Astros' 5-4 defeat of the Tigers.

Gregerson pitched a perfect ninth inning, throwing six of his nine pitches for strikes. He has allowed just one hit (and zero runs) through five innings this season. Ken Giles is getting buried in setup duty.




Nolan Arenado homered twice as the Rockies blanked the Cubs 2-0 on Sunday at Wrigley Field.

Arenado hit a solo shot off Cubs starter Jon Lester in the top of the fourth and then got to reliever Justin Grimm for another solo bomb in the top of the ninth, providing the only runs of the game for either side. The star third baseman is sporting a 1.021 OPS with six home runs and 16 RBI in 12 games this season.




Tyler Chatwood fired seven shutout innings as the Rockies topped the Cubs on Sunday.

Chatwood was sensational, yielding only two hits and a walk while striking out seven as the Rockies managed a surprising 2-0 victory at Wrigley Field. They also won at Wrigley on Friday afternoon, managing to take two of three games from the preseason World Series favorites. Chatwood is a former top prospect with an intriguing arsenal, but it's hard to trust any Colorado pitcher in season-long fantasy formats. He gets the Dodgers at Coors Field next.




Trevor Plouffe was forced to leave Sunday's game against the Angels with an apparent injury.

It's unclear what exactly occurred, but Plouffe grabbed at his side after running to third base. He was replaced by Eduardo Nunez, who could see increased action at the position if Plouffe is forced to miss any time. Look for an update from the Twins after the conclusion of Sunday's game.




Jonathan Papelbon blew the save Sunday in the Nationals' loss to the Phillies.

Washington went up in the top of the 10th inning on a Bryce Harper solo home run, but Papelbon was unable to make that stick. He gave up a one-out double to Peter Bourjos, a two-out RBI single to Andres Blanco, and then a walkoff RBI double to Freddy Galvis. Much to the delight of the Citizens Bank Park crowd.




Aaron Sanchez flummoxed the Red Sox in Sunday's 5-3 win, allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings.

Sanchez struck out seven and walked four on the afternoon. The four walks aren't exactly enticing, but when you are surrendering just two hits, such things bury themselves a little deeper in the box score on an existential level. The lone run to cross the plate on Sanchez's watch came when Mookie Betts burned him for an RBI single in the fifth. The 23-year-old right-hander has been fantastic through three starts, surrendering three earned runs on 10 hits with a 20/7 K/BB ratio across 20 innings. Ride the fantasy sunshine while it is shining bright. Sanchez will look to keep the flame kindled in a scheduled home start against the A's next time he takes the ball.




Trevor Rosenthal earned his third save of the season Sunday in the Cardinals' 4-3 win over the Reds.

Rosenthal has struggled this year in non-save situations, but he's been excellent when given a lead. He blew the Reds away on 12 pitches Sunday, and nine of those pitches for strikes. The flamethrowing right-hander whiffed two of the three batters he faced.




Ichiro Suzuki hit a game-tying RBI single in the bottom of the ninth inning of Sunday's 6-5, 10-inning loss to the Braves.

Ichiro stepped to the plate as the Marlins' last best hope, as the team was down to their final out and faced a one-run deficit. The aged/age-less one delivered with an RBI single off Jason Grilli to knot proceedings at 5-5. Alas, the Braves would score a run of their own in the top of the 10th and come away with the win. The 42-year-old outfielder hit just .229/.282/.279 in 398 at-bats last season.




Matt Moore was stellar in Sunday's 3-2 win over the White Sox, striking out 10 and allowing two runs over 6 1/3 innings.

Moore surrendered RBI singles in the third and seventh innings, but he was money beyond that. The lefty surrendered just five hits without walking a batter and now holds a 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 21/3 K/BB ratio across 18 1/3 innings (three starts) this season. Moore will look to keep up this nice roll in a road start against the Yankees next time he toes the rubber. There are positive signs all around for the 26-year-old former top prospect.




Steven Matz was almost unhittable in Sunday's 6-0 win over the Indians, striking out nine over seven shutout innings.

Just fantastic work by Matz. He walked two on the afternoon while surrendering just three hits. The start was a marked improvement over his last outing, when he coughed up seven runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Marlins. The 24-year-old southpaw should be able to settle into a rhythm now that his initial long layoff (he had nine days off between his final spring start and his first regular season one) is a thing of the past. Matz will be on the road facing the Braves next time he toes the rubber.
 

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Sunday Night Baseball Betting Trends
from Dave Solar




One of the little known secrets in the sports betting world is that betting against the public is actually a better strategy in nationally televised games. Square bettors are prone to betting these games for one simple reason — they plan on watching the game and they want some sort of vested interest. This leads to an influx of public money, which typically leads to an artificially inflated line.

As you can see from the table below, the return on investment (ROI) of our contrarian betting strategy continues to improve as we look at increasingly lop-sided bet games.


Public BettingRecordUnits WonROI
<50%121-130+13.135.2%
<40%68-68+18.6413.7%
<30%26-26+11.3721.9%
<25%13-11+8.8737.0%

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It’s also interesting to see that although underdogs have historically offered baseball bettors superior value, favorites (150-108, +2.16 units won) have had the edge on Sunday night’s. Small favorites (less than -120) have been particularly profitable with a 46-22 record (+19.32 units won, 28.4% ROI).


We were also able to create a very basic contrarian betting system for Sunday Night action. Typically when a team is receiving less than 40% of moneyline bets, sportsbooks will adjust their lines to encourage action on the other side. However, if the line gets worse it typically means that smart money, or large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates, has come in on that team. This reverse line movement is one of the best sharp money indicators.


These trends are not limited to moneyline betting, as we’ve noticed significant contrarian value on Sunday Night Baseball totals. Since 2005, totals receiving less than 50% of bets have gone 130-109 for +15.55 units won and a 6.5% ROI. That includes a record of 29-21 (+8.85 units) on the over and a record of 101-88 (+6.70 units) on the under.


In the past we have also discussed the value of taking the under on high totals and the over on low totals, and this basic trend continues to be profitable as well. When the over/under is at least 9.5, the under has gone 41-24 (+14.85 units won). Conversely, when the total is 9 or less the over has gone 98-83 (+13.22 units won).
 

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Thanks for posting these Knight. Much appreciated.
 

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