MisterMJ MLB Systems

[Mistermj]

For this MLB season I will start by tracking "Select"April Dogs. (Yeah I know it's March...work with me ) "Select" means only dogs within a +128 to +180 window. The reason for this is it has been shown to me that this is the Dog sweet spot of best value.

And the reason to pick Dogs in March and April is...nobody really knows anything yet. There should be some value in just picking the most optimal dog lines. Maybe...maybe not. Let's see what happens.

I do not recommend that you just blindly bet these...let's track them and start learning something for our long term education. You and I.

To keep it real...I will use that Wline place to document the system picks using their mostly realistic average lines. It takes me out of the equation...that is fair.

3/29 Todays "Select" Dogs would be:

HOU at TEX 03:35 PM
TEX +158

NYY at TOR 03:37 PM
TOR +142

BOS at TB 04:00 PM
TB +145

CLE at SEA 10:10 PM
SEA +160


Record 0-0-0

 

[Mistermj]

Yesterday's MLB Select Spring Dogs Tracking


TEX +158 Loss :>(
TB +145 Win
TOR +142 Loss:>(
SEA +160 Win
2018 Record + 1.05 Units ($50 bettor = +$52.50)<><>

 

[Mistermj]

Yesterday...Opening day of Major League Baseball was 2-2 + 1.05 Units or +$52 Bucks to a Fifty dollar bettor.
More Dogs to track tonight...all night games...and they are posted below.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]Now remember I am not advising that you just blindly play these yet.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT] I will have a much more proven system soon.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]We are just tracking these dogs because...well...I think it makes sense to do it and learn from it. Read yesterdays post for a little more information and explanation.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT] Friday 3/30 Select Spring Dogs Tracking
07:07 PM TOR +136

07:10 PM TB +131

08:05 PM TEX +172

09:40 PM COL +130

10:10 PM SF +148
======

Yesterday's Results MLB Select Spring Dogs Tracking

Thur 3/29
TEX +158 Loss
TB +145 Win
TOR +142 Loss
SEA +160 Win
2018 Record + 1.05 Units ($50 bettor = +$52.50)

 

[Mistermj]

I just had a thought looking around the forums...some people and their $10,000 bets as if that proves anything.

It's sort of like female singers...or male singers for that matter.

If you CAN sing you just sing....if you can't...you have to show your titties or grab your crotch a lot. LOL.

Just sayin...

 

[ECC]

Intrigued on how this will turn out MJ ... I’ve noticed over the years this is a good time to do such a thing. Thx for keeping track of this

 

[Biz]

He's exactly right about early season dogs. Great time to play them.

 

[Mistermj]

Intrigued on how this will turn out MJ ... I’ve noticed over the years this is a good time to do such a thing. Thx for keeping track of this

Thanks for your feedback ECC...I appreciate it.

My thinking on this is for the first two weeks or so...just to play the optimal dog lines blindly without further thought scraping off whatever value they show. (if they indeed end up showing value)

Logically the value would seem to come from the fact that nobody really knows what is what this season...so any dog may be underpriced as the public shades everything to past history and performance which may not really be the case in a new season. Some pitchers with a great past will fail...some hitters with history will decline or start in slumps type of thing. Teams with chemistry last season may lose it. Worst to first type situations that nobody ever sees coming.

After a couple of weeks ...everyone will at least have some idea what may be happening...and lines will start to adjust....then I intend to lay a performance filter over the top and try to keep it going through the rest of April. Basically looking for value from what is actually happening now vs. the public still relying on old data and past history.

Come May...this system will probably have run it's course so to speak.

But I have other ideas for that...so I will try to keep things going here.

 

[Mistermj]

Biz...thanks for your comments.

Now empty out your personal message bin so my thank you can come through by private message.

 

[Mistermj]

MLB 3/30 Results
Friday Select Spring Dogs Tracking (Assumes $50 wagers for Tracking purpose)

07:07 PM TOR +136 :>(


07:10 PM TB +131 :>(


08:05 PM TEX +172


09:40 PM COL +130 :>(


10:10 PM SF +148

2-3-0 40.00% +$10.0
Overall 4-5-0 44.44% (+$62.50 For a $50 Dollar bettor)

P.S. Love it when those +170's come in !

 

[Mistermj]

MLB Saturday 3/31 Let's keep it real. +62 Bucks for a Fifty Dollar Bettor so far.

Select Spring Dogs Tracking
02:10 PM CIN +146

08:10 PM COL +133

09:10 PM SF +180

Overall 4-5-0 44.44% (+$62.50 For a $50 bettor)

 

[Mistermj]

Yesterday's MLB Select Spring Dogs Results 03/31 1-2-0 (-$33.50) for a $50 bettor. :>(

Can't win them all...we won't win them all. This system (idea really) is attempting to grind out value from under priced Dogs during the first month of the season. It will have ups and downs...count on it...and we may not find value this season.

The idea is that nobody really knows anything yet...until the teams play a little bit. So we are taking all of the "optimal dog lines"...those between +128 to +180 and tracking them.

I like to keep it real...so for record keeping purposes we assume all wagers are $50 Bucks.

For the rich bastards betting way too much...just add a zero if that makes you feel better. ;-)

4/1 Sun.
Select Spring Dogs

01:10 PM NYM +131
03:05 PM TEX +147
08:37 PM SF +167

Overall Record for 2018
5-7-0 41.67% +$29.00 For a $50 bettor

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today....

 

[Mistermj]

Thanks XS

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]Yesterday's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking Results 04/01/2018 0-3-0 0.00% (-$150) for a $50 bettor. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]4/2 Select Dog Tracking (Assuming $50 Wagers for tracking purpose)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
04:10 PM CIN +135[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]07:07 PM CHW +145[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]10:05 PM TEX +132[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Overall 5-10-0 33.33% -$121 For a $50 bettor[/FONT]

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]I can't wait to start layering a performance filter over these MLB Select Dogs and see what happens.

In other words I want to further qualify them based on recent performance. Of course the question is...what recent performance should we use?

I am very intrigued by a comment from legendary handicapper Jim Barnes in an about.com article I saved years ago and which I think no longer exists. Food for thought. Today's trackers are included below.

Jim Barnes:

baseball is "80-percent batting and 20-percent pitching." I knew the idea had merit from the beginning and a year before leaving the Stardust to return to his native state, sportsbook manager Walker said he was coming around to my point of view. There are only a handful of pitchers that can win when their team is not scoring and the other 95-percent have their records determined by whether the team scores or not.

Hmmm....at the very least....interesting.


Yesterday's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking Results 04/02/2018 1-2-0 33.33 %(-$32.50) for a $50 bettor.

4/3 Select Dog Tracking Picks (Assuming $50 Wagers for tracking purpose)
04:05 PM TB +135

06:40 PM CIN +158

07:07 PM CHW +172

09:40 PM ARI +150


Overall 6-12-0 33.33% -$153.50


[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT]

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]A comment about the MLB trackers. Yeah...not so hot so far. It's kind of hard to tell yet with a small sample size this season.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]One day ...like maybe today who knows...they might all hit or have a 3-1 day and jump right back to plus money. That's the thing about playing dogs...you often have to play a bunch to squeeze out the value over time. Not many people are willing to do what it takes. There are no short cuts.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]This system by the way (MLB Select Dogs... if you want to call it that)... checks out pretty well looking at past history with a SDQL database. I will post that another day.. soon but this has proven to be a winning system...over time. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]

Yesterday's MLB Early Season Select Dog Tracking Results 1-2-0 33.33% -$25 for a $50 bettor[/FONT]

MLB Select Dog Tracking Picks
4/4
02:10 PM BAL +167

04:07 PM LAA +132

07:07 PM CHW +170

10:05 PM TEX +142

Overall 7-14-0 33.33% -$178.50 for a $50 bettor.

 

[XSPower]

good luck today...

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]Yesterday's MLB Tracking Results 2-2-0 50.00% +$51 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor. [/FONT]

That's more like it !

Today's MLB Early Season Tracker Picks

4/5
01:05 PM NYM +140

03:05 PM MIA +133

03:35 PM TEX +128

07:05 PM CIN +132

Overall Record 9-16-0 36.00% -$127.50 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]Yesterday's MLB Results for Early Season Select Dog Trackers 2-2-0 50.00% +$34.00 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]

All Wagers are assumed to be $50 for tracking purposes. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]Friday 4/6 MLB Select Dog Trackers

04:10 PM ATL +133

07:05 PM BAL +159

08:10 PM MIL +130

10:15 PM SF +140

Overall Record 11-18-0 37.93% -$93.50 for a $50 dollar bettor

 

[averynuday]

Yesterday's MLB Results for Early Season Select Dog Trackers 2-2-0 50.00% +$34.00 for a Fifty Dollar Bettor.

All Wagers are assumed to be $50 for tracking purposes.

Friday 4/6 MLB Select Dog Trackers

04:10 PM ATL +133

07:05 PM BAL +159

08:10 PM MIL +130

10:15 PM SF +140

Overall Record 11-18-0 37.93% -$93.50 for a $50 dollar bettor

Great job MJ I knew those dogs would come around sooner or later!!