MisterMJ MLB System Plays

Mistermj · Jun 6, 2014

We have two, 2 Game Chase System picks tonight. It would be great if things firm up and we get both of them.

Play on Milwaukee -110 for 1 unit at 7:05 PM ET and play on Atlanta -115 for 1 unit at 9:40 PM ET.

If the team wins we bank it...and if a team loses we will play them in the next game for 2 units (if they qualify).

More info included below.

Good luck to us.

MJ

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Milwaukee	-	7:05 PM ET	Milwaukee -110	100
Pittsburgh	-
Atlanta	-	9:40 PM ET	Atlanta -115	100
Arizona

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2 Game Chase System Record

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Series Record 6-3 66.7% -228 -2.28 units ($100 = 1 unit)
Game 1's 5-4
Game 2's 1-3

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Mistermj · Jun 7, 2014

Atlanta won last night, and Milwaukee qualifies for game 2 of our chase in that series.

Play on Milwaukee +106 for 2 units at 4:05 PM ET

More info below. Good luck to us.

MJ
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Milwaukee	-	4:05 PM ET	Milwaukee +106	200
Pittsburgh

*Record is prior to current chase picks

*2 Game Chase System Record

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Series Record 6-3 66.7% -228 -2.28 units ($100 = 1 unit)
Game 1's 5-4
Game 2's 1-3

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Mistermj · Jun 8, 2014

A nice win last night, and we cleared out both chases this weekend for wins.

Everything still looks ok... and I still think we could catch on fire as the season goes on.

But I will continue to monitor everything closely and I want the chase system to build up some cushion for us again, so we are playing with house money.

No single games qualify today. I guess they are very select....so select we hardly ever get a pick.

Some of this is just random...I expect things will pick up for us.

Possible 2 game chase picks on Monday and Tues.

MJ

Mistermj · Jun 9, 2014

Nothing qualifies tonight, some possibles on Tuesday.

MJ

Mistermj · Jun 10, 2014

Nothing qualifies today.

MJ

Mistermj · Jun 11, 2014

Nothing qualifies today.

I might start sharing some unders pretty soon. I've been working on baseball unders for a long time (years) but could never quite crack the code.

I'm onto something now that looks promising but I'm unable to backtest it properly...so it would have to be a live experiment going forward, all based on theory without any history to rely on.

Mistermj · Jun 12, 2014

We have a select single game to play this afternoon at 3:45 PM ET. There will be no chase involved.

Play on the San Francisco Giants -131 for 1 Unit. If you play it on the ML I would play listed pitchers only.

You could also play this on the -1 Run Line for about +111.

I do not recommend to play this on the -1.5 Run Line as the total is only 7 and we know from experience that we should have at least an 8 total to play the -1.5 Run Line.

If you want to make your own -1 Run Line just google "MLB Run Line Calculator" and one should come up.

Personally I think the ML is the way to play this one, as the price is not too high and it's a low total.

More info included below.

Good luck.

MJ
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Washington	-	3:45 PM ET	San Francisco -131	100
San Francisco Select Single Games Record 1-1 -67 -1 Units

rywill2006 · Jun 12, 2014

Mistermj · Jun 13, 2014

Nothing qualifies today.

MJ

Mistermj · Jun 14, 2014

Nothing qualifies today. Possibles on Sunday.

MJ

Mistermj · Jun 15, 2014

San Fran is the play today as a select single game. However it has a monster ML at -203

With a total of 7 it's not the best candidate for a -1.5 Run line either.

Play it on the ML or -1 Run line for 1 unit.

4:05 PM ET

San Francisco -203

100

2-1 +$33

Good luck

MJ

Mistermj · Jun 16, 2014

Nothing qualifies today. A lot of possibles tomorrow and I'm going to share what I've been doing with Unders.

Mistermj · Jun 17, 2014

Nothing qualifies with the 2 Game Chase this series.

I'm including the Unders system I have been working on....it's something I stumbled across researching other things.

I'm now using sabermetric statistics in a system I have tried before with regular stats...but the sabremetric stats seem to make a big difference.

Once we get to 30 picks we can start to make an educated guess if this system has some value. So far so good. Ease into it with half wagers and see if we can start playing with house money before we go to full wagers, if it keeps showing promise.

My 7.5 on the Mets Under does not look like its widely available ...so I hope we don't run into that too much. I might want to try getting these out earlier and see if we get better and more widely available numbers.

The picks and more info included below.

For record keeping purposes I will be playing them as full 1 unit wagers.

Good luck to us.

MJ

Saber Unders
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Houston	-	7:05 PM ET	Under 7	100
Washington	-
NY Mets	-	8:15 PM ET	Under 7.5	100
St. Louis

14-8-0 63.64% +$520 ($100 = 1 Unit)

Mistermj · Jun 18, 2014

We have a single game that qualifies early this afternoon. I will have today's O/u's in a second post.

12:10 pm ET Atlanta -163 for 1 unit.

The o/u is 8 so you could play it on the -1.5 Run line for about +132.

The -1 Run Line is about -113.

Philadelphia - 12:10 PM ET Atlanta -163 100
Atlanta
Select single game record on the ML
2-2-0 50% -$170 (-1.7 Units $100 = 1 unit)

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rywill2006 · Jun 18, 2014

Gl mj!

Mistermj · Jun 18, 2014

Most days will have two plays per day.

I continue to like what I see here...but it's still a little too early to go hog wild. Let's see what the record is when we get to 30 picks.

If possible, I would recommend to average into them. Maybe play as half wagers and do not go full wagers until we get some house money built up. Like everything else there can be good and bad streaks.

MLB Saber Unders

Houston	-	7:05 PM ET	Under 7.5	100
Washington	-
Seattle	-	10:10 PM ET	Under 6	100
San Diego MLB Saber Unders Record 15-9-0 62.50% +$510

Good luck,
MJ

Mistermj · Jun 19, 2014

So far, the bright spot to this season might be the sabermetric unders that I have been working on.

I've been tracking them in two ways, as shown below.

The regular Saber Unders will usually have 2 picks per day, while the Saber Unders II is trying to be more select with added criteria for picks to qualify.

I don't know which one is the best way to play them yet. They both look good...sometimes picks will over lap.

So far so good. I would average in with half wagers until you start playing with house money before going to full wagers. There will be plenty of picks if they continue to perform well.

Saber Unders (usually 2 per day)

Seattle	-	6:40 PM ET	Under 7	100
San Diego	-
Chi. White Sox	-	8:10 PM ET	Under 8.5	100
Minnesota

Saber Unders Record
16-10-0 61.54% +$500 +5 Units

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Saber Unders II (More select criteria, in theory, with less picks using higher quality filter. )

Seattle	-	6:40 PM ET	Under 7	100
San Diego	-
NY Mets	-	7:10 PM ET	Under 7	100
Miami

Saber Unders II Record
8-4-1 66.67% +$360 +3.6 units

STACKSONDECK · Jun 19, 2014

the unders are straight bets right not a chase?

STACKSONDECK · Jun 19, 2014

STACKS ON DECK said:
the unders are straight bets right not a chase?

I see straight bets... hmm wonder what is the best way to play these? just play both picks from each system or just the higher percentage one for a little more..

Mistermj · Jun 20, 2014

Yes the Saber Unders are straight bets, flat bet for 1 unit. No chase.

Too early to tell yet, but I really like what I see so far.

I wouldn't assume which system variation will be best...yet.

Definitely a good night tonight...swept em with both systems. :103631605