NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals
The St. Mary's Gaels got the best of me on Monday night when they spanked the living crap out of Davidson but I think the game was a lot closer than it appeared and too many people are getting excited about the way these guys played in that game. I mean sure it looked like they were unstoppable and all but the reality is that most of that energy came from the home crowd who did a great job harassing Davidson all night and who really helped pump this Gaels team up to the point where they went on that one big run in the second half and never looked back. Believe me the crowd had a huge impact in that game and believe me St. Mary's is tired from that war with the Wildcats (and now they have to play a team that is very well rested). St. Mary's comes into this game averaging 72.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to do that by shooting only 41.9% from the floor in those games which means the minute they run into a hot defense, the season is done for these guys. Well tonight is the night. San Diego State has allowed only 54.4 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those teams to shoot only 36.6% from the floor in those games. WOW now that is some defense. As many shots as they've taken from three point range in their last five games, the Gaels are making only 31.6% of their shots from beyond the arc and they average only 6.0 three pointers made per game. Well good luck even knocking down half of that tonight against one of the best perimeter defenses left in all tournament action right now as the Aztecs have allowed their last five opponents to make only 18.2% of their three point shots the last five games and have allowed only 3.2 three point shots made per game in those games. The Gaels had a lot of calls go their way the other night and they have gone to the free throw line 21.8 times per game in their last five games which is a good indication that they can attack the hoop and do some damage in the lanes. That is pretty much their only hope tonight even though San Diego State has allowed their last five opponents to go to the line only 19.6 times per game in those games. I also noticed in the game on Monday Night that St. Mary's is a very good rebounding team and that it's tough to get second chances under the basket against this team. Having said that, San Diego State has done a very good job holding opponents off in their last five games as they have allowed only 29.6 rebounds per game in those games and as long as they don't allow St. Mary's to grab too many offensive boards, the Aztecs are going to frustrate the Gaels to the point where they are over-aggressive under the basket and are going to start getting called for over the backs on the offensive side of things. Despite the good play of Patrick Mills on Monday the Gaels offense still has some flaws if you ask me. I mean they average only 11.6 assists per game in their last five games and their ball movement is not consistent enough to break down this type of defense. The only way to break this hardcore zone of San Diego State is to have guards who can really work around the zone and find the openings in the middle but again St. Mary's is going to struggle against these guys. San Diego State has allowed their last five opponents to average only 7.8 assists per game which is incredible and they have managed to grab 7.0 steals per game in those games. St. Mary's is going to be running on fumes in this game and the defensive pressure of the Aztecs is no doubt going to bother these guys. I'll be the first to admit that St. Mary's looked damn good in their game against Davidson but the line for this game seems to be drawing a lot of attention to the Gaels and I just don't think they can live up to the hype away from that home crowd that gave them that much energy and momentum in their Monday night game. Not the right spot for St. Mary's coming off that tough game.
The San Diego State Aztecs don't get much respect from bettors and that is evident in the amount of people who have gone against them tonight but please consider this. While St. Mary's is coming in off a very tough game against Davidson that had them running up and down the court all game long, the Aztecs have been sitting around at home, relaxing and preparing for what should be one of their toughest games this season. Please focus on that word relaxed and ready to play tonight because at this point in the tournament some tough games can take a lot out of team and although I defended Kentucky and their ability to play on one days rest, I just think it's much tougher for a team when they have to play against a very good defense (Notre Dame doesn't qualify). San Diego State comes into this game averaging 68.3 points per game at home this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 45.7% from the floor which is good for their style of play. I can tell you right now that much like St. Mary's the Aztecs are not a good three point shooting team nor have they been all season long. Having said that, I can see them making their fair share of long bombs in this game against a St. Mary's defense that has allowed their road opponents to make 34.2% of their three point shots this season and that could work to the advantage of the Aztecs as they do attempt 17.2 three pointers per home game. What you have to understand is that patience is needed with this San Diego State offense because they take time to set things up and they are very technical with each and every offensive possession. They don't get to the free throw line all that much per home game this season (however 18.6 times per home game is good for this type of slower moving offense) and regardless St. Mary's interior defense has done a good job keeping opponents outside the paint and forcing shots from the mid-range. I talked about rebounding earlier and mentioned that St. Mary's obviously has the edge because of their size and because of their depth at the big positions. Having said that you guys are going to be surprised at how tough San Diego State is on the offensive boards as they have brought down 11.3 offensive rebounds per home game this season despite averaging only 30.8 rebounds per game in those games and St. Mary's is going to be challenged a lot on the boards in this one. With tired legs on their side, the Gaels will obviously not have the same kind of hop in their step had they had a 3-4 day layoff like San Diego State had and that could actually be the difference in this game tonight. Anyone who watched St. Mary's defense against Davidson knows that they have somer serious issues to deal with and that had it not been for a ton of missed open shots by the Wildcats, we might be talking about Stephen Curry and how he would play against this defense. The Aztecs offense is very simple yet very effective as they average 13.0 assists per home game this season and have turned the ball over only 12.0 times per game in those games. Now I talked about St. Mary's not forcing enough turnovers per game this season and I really thought Davidson would take advantage of that (they did in the first half) and keep the game close. Well San Diego State is a lot more effective offensively than Davidson and I think they can exploit the fact that the Gaels have forced only 9.7 turnovers per road game this season (NCAA average is 13.7 per game) and the fact that they have only 4.6 steals per game in those away games. This is a very well coached San Diego State team and I think they have come a very long way since losing to this same St. Mary's team very early in the 2008-2009 season. This is a home revenge spot for these guys and believe me when I say that they have been studying game tape for quite some time now anticipating St. Mary's to be the team that comes through here for a spot in the semifinals of this tournament. We see the best of San Diego State tonight.
Alright so by now you all know that these two teams have already played each other once this season and that St. Mary's came in here on December 13 as a -3 point road favorite and ended up winning the game by exactly that...three points. However please consider how different the situation is this time around as the Aztecs are playing with nothing more than revenge on their minds in this game, they are playing at home yet again and they are the better rested team of the two. I mean you don't just spank Weber State by 16 points and then spank Kansas State by 18 points (both at home) only to not show up for a game where you are seeking revenge. I think what most bettors are underestimating is this team's ability to compete with some of the big name schools. I won't lie when I say that St. Mary's has been cash money against non-conference opponents in recent years. But I am also not lying when I tell you that the Gaels are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog, they are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games that follow three or more consecutive home games, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points, they are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog and most importantly of all...they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games overall. San Diego State is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season, they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games versus West Coast Conference opponents and they have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 home games as a favorite. Need I say more? St. Mary's has not played well on the road all season, they are tired and vulnerable and I think they go down in flames tonight.
Trend of the Game: St. Mary's is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games as an underdog.
San Diego State 71, St. Mary's 62
More selections to come...
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