NCAA Tournament - Second Round
View attachment 6738 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +11 (10 Units) View attachment 6737
View attachment 6738 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +11 (10 Units) View attachment 6737
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are obviously going to be the choice play of the night because of the way they kicked some serious Illinois ass in their first round game and I don't quite understand the line. We are either being set up for failure here because Vegas wants the world on a team that showed the most promise and energy of all first round winners in my opinion or Vegas just made a mistake and they put out a bad line for this game. I actually thought it was going to be a lot closer to 5-6 points but if you are offering me double digits then I am going to take it. Western Kentucky comes into this game averaging 72.2 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by shooting 45.1% from the floor. Gonzaga has one of the best defensive teams in the Nation but as we have seen against other non-conference opponents they have not been as good out of the conference and the Big West is weak anyways. The Hilltoppers showed how deadly they are from three point range in their first round game and they have made 37,3% from three point range on the season and have made 7.8 three pointers per game in those games. If anything Gonzaga has had problems defending the perimeter as their opponents this season have hit 34.0% of their three point shots and have connected on 7.0 three pointers per game on the year. That is some bad news if Western Kentucky gets hot from the outside. The Hilltoppers also have an inside game as they have been to the free throw line 19.3 times per game and have made 70.0% of their free throws on the season. Gonzaga's interior defense has some holes as their opponents have been to the free throw line 17.0 times per game this season and I actually think Western Kentucky is going to be big time active on the boards in this one as they bring down 34.4 rebounds per game on the season and average 11.6 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Zags have struggled against good rebounding teams this season allowing 10.5 offensive rebounds per game on the year and the Hilltoppers have shown many times this season that they are going to keep attacking and looking for second chances under the basket. The Western Kentucky guards have done a good job with their fast pace of play as they average 13.5 assists per game this season and do have some good ball moving skills. That is important against a tight defense like the Bulldogs because they force a lot of turnovers and are good against the zone penetration. It's not going to be as easy for the Hilltoppers tonight but they handled Illinois' very tight defense and I don't see why the game plan would not be the exact same in this game tonight. The Hilltoppers showed enough energy in their first round game that they are going to be hyped for this game and I think this is going to be the same kind of situation. Gonzaga is good defensively but Western Kentucky is playing with too much fire right now guys. Watch and learn, this is an underdog you want to back.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs made me some cash this season but not when I backed them, more when I went against them and recognized the games they would struggle in. Well the Zags had it too easy in their first round game and I think this is going to be quite the shock for these guys if Western Kentucky comes out guns blazing again. Gonzaga has a very good balanced attack on offense and they can really D things up and they have a pretty deep bench but having said that I don't know that they can run with a team like Western Kentucky. Gonzaga comes into this game averaging 80.4 points per game in their last five games and they have done their usual hot shooting from the floor average 51.1% shooting from the floor in their last five games. Well Gonzaga might be in for a surprise here against a Western Kentucky team that has decided to start playing defense in recent weeks allowing only 59.0 points per game in their last five games and allowing those opponents to shoot only 42.3% from the floor in those last five games. I don't know that there is a hotter team from three point land in the last five games than the Bulldogs but that doesn't concern me because the Hilltoppers have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 30.4% from three point range in their last five games and have made only 5.6 three point shots per game in those games. Other than shooting three pointers the Bulldogs have struggled to do anything else really as sure they make their miid-range shots but they have been to the free throw line only 18.0 times per game in their last five games and that's just not enough to build a big lead in a game like this against a team that is obviously going to keep scoring points all game long. Well Western Kentucky has really shut things down in the middle their last five games allowing those opponents to get to the free throw line only 10.2 times per game in those games. That's tremendous defense no matter who the opponents are and I think their knewly found defensive ways are going to catapult them to even more success in this tournament. What's funny is that in their last five games the Hilltoppers have actually out-rebounded Gonzaga as the Zags rebound a lot because they shoot a lot but they have brought down only 6.4 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and that is not going to work against a Western Kentucky team that has allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 25.2 rebounds per game and have allowed only 7.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Bulldogs have some of the best guard play in the Nation and that is no secret. That is also the reason they have scored so many points per game in recent games and it will take a lot for the Hilltoppers to make some stops in this game. Even if they can't stop the Bulldogs on every possession that's not a big deal because Western Kentucky is going to score points of their own in this game and they are going to match the Bulldogs point for point if you ask me. This should be a great battle of two teams with good guard play and serious explosiveness and we could be in for one hell of a shootout in this game. Western Kentucky is playing their best defense of the season and that could not have come at a better time because teams with bad defense have not made it anywhere in this tournament. Gonzaga will score but it won't be enough if you ask me.
I don't know what to think once again because I don't like having so many people on the same side when it comes to betting on a team like this. It looks for the most part like the squares are betting based on reaction and based on what they saw Western Kentucky do in the first meeting between these teams. Having said that, I was going to back Western Kentucky no matter who was on them in this game and again it doesn't bother me that this many people are taking them tonight because I think they are the real deal and I think they can bring the same energy to this game tonight. Western Kentucky has been a great underdog to bet on in their last few tournament appearances as they are now 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up win the game before and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Western Kentucky kicked big time ass in their conference tournament covering the spread in all the games and they are now 6-0 ATS in their last six games. How about the fact that they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog on a neutral site? They have covered 20 of their last 27 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the season and have covered the spread in a whopping 41 of their last 58 non-conference games which is pretty fuckin incredible if you ask me. Gonzaga is overrated in my books because of the teams they have faced this season and they have sucked on the spread against good teams. The Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record and they have covered only 2 of their last 9 NCAA Tournament games. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. OUCH. Give me those red hot crazy kids from Western Kentucky tonight and expect the same level of energy from these kids. I SAY IT'S UPSET TIME ON A SATURDAY NIGHT! Should be a thriller.
Trend of the Game: Western Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog.
Western Kentucky 84, Gonzaga 83
More selections to come...
The Gonzaga Bulldogs made me some cash this season but not when I backed them, more when I went against them and recognized the games they would struggle in. Well the Zags had it too easy in their first round game and I think this is going to be quite the shock for these guys if Western Kentucky comes out guns blazing again. Gonzaga has a very good balanced attack on offense and they can really D things up and they have a pretty deep bench but having said that I don't know that they can run with a team like Western Kentucky. Gonzaga comes into this game averaging 80.4 points per game in their last five games and they have done their usual hot shooting from the floor average 51.1% shooting from the floor in their last five games. Well Gonzaga might be in for a surprise here against a Western Kentucky team that has decided to start playing defense in recent weeks allowing only 59.0 points per game in their last five games and allowing those opponents to shoot only 42.3% from the floor in those last five games. I don't know that there is a hotter team from three point land in the last five games than the Bulldogs but that doesn't concern me because the Hilltoppers have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 30.4% from three point range in their last five games and have made only 5.6 three point shots per game in those games. Other than shooting three pointers the Bulldogs have struggled to do anything else really as sure they make their miid-range shots but they have been to the free throw line only 18.0 times per game in their last five games and that's just not enough to build a big lead in a game like this against a team that is obviously going to keep scoring points all game long. Well Western Kentucky has really shut things down in the middle their last five games allowing those opponents to get to the free throw line only 10.2 times per game in those games. That's tremendous defense no matter who the opponents are and I think their knewly found defensive ways are going to catapult them to even more success in this tournament. What's funny is that in their last five games the Hilltoppers have actually out-rebounded Gonzaga as the Zags rebound a lot because they shoot a lot but they have brought down only 6.4 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and that is not going to work against a Western Kentucky team that has allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 25.2 rebounds per game and have allowed only 7.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Bulldogs have some of the best guard play in the Nation and that is no secret. That is also the reason they have scored so many points per game in recent games and it will take a lot for the Hilltoppers to make some stops in this game. Even if they can't stop the Bulldogs on every possession that's not a big deal because Western Kentucky is going to score points of their own in this game and they are going to match the Bulldogs point for point if you ask me. This should be a great battle of two teams with good guard play and serious explosiveness and we could be in for one hell of a shootout in this game. Western Kentucky is playing their best defense of the season and that could not have come at a better time because teams with bad defense have not made it anywhere in this tournament. Gonzaga will score but it won't be enough if you ask me.
I don't know what to think once again because I don't like having so many people on the same side when it comes to betting on a team like this. It looks for the most part like the squares are betting based on reaction and based on what they saw Western Kentucky do in the first meeting between these teams. Having said that, I was going to back Western Kentucky no matter who was on them in this game and again it doesn't bother me that this many people are taking them tonight because I think they are the real deal and I think they can bring the same energy to this game tonight. Western Kentucky has been a great underdog to bet on in their last few tournament appearances as they are now 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up win the game before and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Western Kentucky kicked big time ass in their conference tournament covering the spread in all the games and they are now 6-0 ATS in their last six games. How about the fact that they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog on a neutral site? They have covered 20 of their last 27 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the season and have covered the spread in a whopping 41 of their last 58 non-conference games which is pretty fuckin incredible if you ask me. Gonzaga is overrated in my books because of the teams they have faced this season and they have sucked on the spread against good teams. The Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record and they have covered only 2 of their last 9 NCAA Tournament games. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. OUCH. Give me those red hot crazy kids from Western Kentucky tonight and expect the same level of energy from these kids. I SAY IT'S UPSET TIME ON A SATURDAY NIGHT! Should be a thriller.
Trend of the Game: Western Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog.
Western Kentucky 84, Gonzaga 83
More selections to come...
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Did the unthinkable, called back in reversing my bet on this one. Gonzaga is definatly out of rythm and WK is on fire, only bet Gonzo in the first lace because I thought they had a down game and really did not like the way WK closed their game. I am with you Mista, thanks 4 straightening me out.
NCAA Tournament - Second Round
View attachment 6741 Duke Blue Devils -7.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6740
View attachment 6741 Duke Blue Devils -7.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6740
The Texas Longhorns are the team that screws me the most when I bet on them or when I go against them and that goes for both college basketball and college football so I don't know what to say. Having said that, I think they are going to struggle big time in this game tonight against a Duke team that is finding their best basketball at a good time of the year. Texas has had an up and down season which is why they have such a low seed and they have shown their youth on way too many occasions this season. Texas is good but they are not an elite team like Duke. Alright so the Longhorns come into this game averaging 69.9 points per game on neutral courts this season and they have made a solid 45.3% of their shots from the field in those games but Duke's defense is on fire as of late and the Blue Devils can hold most teams to 60 points or less as they have held their neutral court opponents this season to only 62.1 points per game and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 42.0% from the floor in those games. After shooting poorly from three point range all season the Longhorns are starting to make some shots but they attempt only 13.4 three point shots per game on neutral courts and make only 5.4 of those three point shots per game. I would advise taking a lot of three point shots against Duke because if anything their perimeter defense has struggled and they leave a lot of guys open from downtown. But again the Longhorns just don't take enough three point shots, it's not part of their game and that won't change tonight. The Horns are more about getting inside, penetrating the zone and getting some mid-range looks but because of that they have been to the free throw line only 19.6 times per game on neutral courts and have made only 61.1% of their free throws on neutral courts this season. Duke's interior defense is tremendous and they have allowed their neutral courts opponents to get to the free throw line only 14.3 times per game on neutral courts this season and if Texas cannot get to the line, they are going to be left dead in the water trying to make shots from the outside and we are going to see the same poor three point shooting team we have seen all season from the Horns. They do have the advantage on the boards and it's tough to mess with Texas on rebounds but Duke is one of the best teams in the Country when it comes to protecting their own house as their neutral court opponents have averaged only 8.3 offensive rebounds per game and have averaged only 26.4 total rebounds per game. If you take away the Horns ability to get second chances around the basket and their ability to get fouled under the basket, then you have some serious problems on offense for Texas. I also don't understand how anyone can bet on Texas knowing how sketchy their guard play has been all season as they average only 11.8 assists per game on neutral courts this season and have turned the ball over a whopping 13.9 times per game in those games. Its not like Duke has allowed much penetration or transition on fast breaks and for that reason alone Texas is only going to keep this game close if they can shoot 50% or better from the floor and believe me that is not happening. The Blue Devils have forced 13.7 turnovers per game on neutral courts this season and average 6.4 steals per game in those games and that is going to be a big problem for a Texas team that has been turnover prone all season and that has struggled against teams that can guard the inside. Duke is playing some good basketball now and Texas is just too young and they lack too much experience (apart from Abrahams) to keep this game close tonight. I am fading these guys yet again and I better not get screwed. All I have to say.
The Duke Blue Devils are another team I can never seem to cap right as I lose when I bet on them and I get crushed when I go against them. What can I say? Well having said that, this is the first time all season I see a perfect 50-50 split between the people betting on the Longhorns and the people betting on the Blue Devils. That means the public has given up on this team, they have moved on and they are putting their faith in other teams at the worst time, when Duke is playing their best basketball of the season. Don't say I didn't tell you because I just did and I will keep doing so. Duke comes into this game averaging 78.3 points per game this season and they have done that by shooting 44.9% from the floor in those games. Well I know Texas has played good defense for the most part of this season and that was against Big 12 Conference opponents so it's legit but not many teams can stop Duke when they are hot and I think they are going to catch serious fire in this game tonight. What I like about Duke is that only 24.5% of their shot attempts this season have come from three point range and even at that they have shot pretty well from the outside. Well Texas has allowed their opponents this season to shoot 34.4% from three point range and if the Blue Devils get hot, which they will at some points in this game, the lights are going to be knocked out with the three point shooting. Duke is more a team that loves to move the ball inside and pound away in the paint as they have been to the free throw line 24.4 times per game this season and they have made 72.7% of those free throws on the season. Texas has struggled against teams that love to crash the inside as their opponents this season have been to the free throw line 20.4 times per game and that is going to be a huge problem as this game progresses and the younger Texas players are forced off the bench to put in some minutes. If there is a team that can match the Horns on the boards it has to be Duke because these are some of the most athletic players in the Country and the Blue Devils have brought down a whopping 34.0 rebounds per game this season, they are crazy aggressive on the offensive glass bringing down 12.3 offensive rebounds per game this season and that should be a concern for the Longhorns who have allowed 10.0 offensive rebounds per game this season, have looked lazy around their own basket at times and have let opponents sticks around in games way too much because of this. The Blue Devils don't have the best guards in the Nation but they do the small things right as this team comes into this game averaging 13.5 assists per game this season and have turned the ball over only 12.2 times per game in those games. The Longhorns have a solid base defense that usually keeps opponents out of the paint and forces opponents to take bad shots. Well Duke is too disciplined to fall into that kind of game and they are going to work the ball around the perimeter until they can find an opening in the inside and then move the ball down low to create penetration and draw some fouls. Duke is the kind of team that really catches fire when they are hot and even though the game might be close for some time, the Blue Devils are going to finish this off in the final five minutes with some crazy points and I see them winning the game by at least 10 points in this one. The Longhorns are tough and they are strong inside but they are too young and I think that is going to show on defense in tonight's game.
So we have two of the top programs of the last few years going up against each other tonight but the spread indicates that Vegas wants a lot of action on one side so that they can get screwed and I think that side is the Texas side. We are even right now at 50-50 on both sides so I don't think Vegas wins or loses which is a shock in a Duke game because usually you have everyone go against them or you have everyone bet on them. All in all I just don't think Texas is ready to ball with the big boys on the big stage in this game because Duke has some very experience players who have been here and done that in the past and experience is huge in games like this. Both these teams have pretty much sucked on the spread when they are backed by big number so someone is about to be screwed once again. Texas comes into this game having covered the spread in only 4 of their last 15 games which is horrendous and they are only 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 games that follow a straight up win. Texas has not been a good underdog wager going 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and they are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games that follow an ATS win the game before. Duke at least knows how to follow a win with a good performance as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games that follow a straight up win the game before and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played on a neutral court. Duke has been garbage in their last 10 NCAA games when it comes to spread betting but I think all of that changes tonight. Duke is playing on primetime television on a Saturday Night and I cannot believe how many people are going against them. Shame on you, don't say I didn't tell you so.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
Duke 76, Texas 61
:toast:
Good Luck to everyone tonight. It's been a long day and I am pretty upset at the way Maryland performed but that's fine because I was a bit torn on that game, wanted some action and went with the team I thought could keep it close but again I should have gone with Memphis. Want to finish the night strong!
The Duke Blue Devils are another team I can never seem to cap right as I lose when I bet on them and I get crushed when I go against them. What can I say? Well having said that, this is the first time all season I see a perfect 50-50 split between the people betting on the Longhorns and the people betting on the Blue Devils. That means the public has given up on this team, they have moved on and they are putting their faith in other teams at the worst time, when Duke is playing their best basketball of the season. Don't say I didn't tell you because I just did and I will keep doing so. Duke comes into this game averaging 78.3 points per game this season and they have done that by shooting 44.9% from the floor in those games. Well I know Texas has played good defense for the most part of this season and that was against Big 12 Conference opponents so it's legit but not many teams can stop Duke when they are hot and I think they are going to catch serious fire in this game tonight. What I like about Duke is that only 24.5% of their shot attempts this season have come from three point range and even at that they have shot pretty well from the outside. Well Texas has allowed their opponents this season to shoot 34.4% from three point range and if the Blue Devils get hot, which they will at some points in this game, the lights are going to be knocked out with the three point shooting. Duke is more a team that loves to move the ball inside and pound away in the paint as they have been to the free throw line 24.4 times per game this season and they have made 72.7% of those free throws on the season. Texas has struggled against teams that love to crash the inside as their opponents this season have been to the free throw line 20.4 times per game and that is going to be a huge problem as this game progresses and the younger Texas players are forced off the bench to put in some minutes. If there is a team that can match the Horns on the boards it has to be Duke because these are some of the most athletic players in the Country and the Blue Devils have brought down a whopping 34.0 rebounds per game this season, they are crazy aggressive on the offensive glass bringing down 12.3 offensive rebounds per game this season and that should be a concern for the Longhorns who have allowed 10.0 offensive rebounds per game this season, have looked lazy around their own basket at times and have let opponents sticks around in games way too much because of this. The Blue Devils don't have the best guards in the Nation but they do the small things right as this team comes into this game averaging 13.5 assists per game this season and have turned the ball over only 12.2 times per game in those games. The Longhorns have a solid base defense that usually keeps opponents out of the paint and forces opponents to take bad shots. Well Duke is too disciplined to fall into that kind of game and they are going to work the ball around the perimeter until they can find an opening in the inside and then move the ball down low to create penetration and draw some fouls. Duke is the kind of team that really catches fire when they are hot and even though the game might be close for some time, the Blue Devils are going to finish this off in the final five minutes with some crazy points and I see them winning the game by at least 10 points in this one. The Longhorns are tough and they are strong inside but they are too young and I think that is going to show on defense in tonight's game.
So we have two of the top programs of the last few years going up against each other tonight but the spread indicates that Vegas wants a lot of action on one side so that they can get screwed and I think that side is the Texas side. We are even right now at 50-50 on both sides so I don't think Vegas wins or loses which is a shock in a Duke game because usually you have everyone go against them or you have everyone bet on them. All in all I just don't think Texas is ready to ball with the big boys on the big stage in this game because Duke has some very experience players who have been here and done that in the past and experience is huge in games like this. Both these teams have pretty much sucked on the spread when they are backed by big number so someone is about to be screwed once again. Texas comes into this game having covered the spread in only 4 of their last 15 games which is horrendous and they are only 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 games that follow a straight up win. Texas has not been a good underdog wager going 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and they are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games that follow an ATS win the game before. Duke at least knows how to follow a win with a good performance as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games that follow a straight up win the game before and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played on a neutral court. Duke has been garbage in their last 10 NCAA games when it comes to spread betting but I think all of that changes tonight. Duke is playing on primetime television on a Saturday Night and I cannot believe how many people are going against them. Shame on you, don't say I didn't tell you so.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
Duke 76, Texas 61
:toast:
Good Luck to everyone tonight. It's been a long day and I am pretty upset at the way Maryland performed but that's fine because I was a bit torn on that game, wanted some action and went with the team I thought could keep it close but again I should have gone with Memphis. Want to finish the night strong!
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RECAP
Baylor +4.5
Villanova -2
Maryland +9.5
Connecticut -10.5
Purdue +1.5
Oklahoma -6.5
Western Kentucky +11
Duke -7.5
3-1 ATS with pending
10-2 ATS the last two days
23-8 ATS this tournament season
I am having another great day so far and I want to keep this going through the night. This is a dream start to the tournament for me and when I am on fire I am on fire and I showed that in the past in other sports. Let's keep making some cash boys and girls cuz CASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME (you know the rest). Good Luck the rest of the night!
Baylor +4.5
Villanova -2
Maryland +9.5
Connecticut -10.5
Purdue +1.5
Oklahoma -6.5
Western Kentucky +11
Duke -7.5
3-1 ATS with pending
10-2 ATS the last two days
23-8 ATS this tournament season
I am having another great day so far and I want to keep this going through the night. This is a dream start to the tournament for me and when I am on fire I am on fire and I showed that in the past in other sports. Let's keep making some cash boys and girls cuz CASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME (you know the rest). Good Luck the rest of the night!
