Miscellaneous Offesason Fantasy Football News

[HacheMan]

Jonesing for Jennings
Fantasy and real-life football are similar in few ways, but in both forms of competition talent is the absolute, inarguable No. 1 factor that separates winners from losers. An NFL team isn't going to the Super Bowl without an abundance of elite players. A fantasy owner won't win his league without a roster consisting of play-making touchdown scorers.

Aside from injury, holdout, or sheer lack of desire, the variable most capable of overriding talent -- particularly in fantasy -- is situation. This consists primarily of opportunity and usage. Last season, Justin Forsett and Jerome Harrison saw their opportunities increase and capitalized en route to valuable fantasy seasons. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Broncos rookie coach Josh McDaniels' head-scratching use of natural slot receiver Eddie Royal as a sideline-running decoy doomed Royal's production. The 20th overall fantasy wideout during his rookie season, Royal ranked 101st as a sophomore.

Packers receiver Greg Jennings experienced the worst of both situation-related elements in 2009. His opportunities down and his usage adversely impacted by offensive line injuries, Jennings ranked 21st among fantasy receivers a year after finishing fourth overall.

Let's have a look at the reasons why we can expect Jennings to rebound, and rebound big:

Editor's Note: See where Jennings ranks in our 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Guide here.

1. Jennings still played very, very well last year.

You wouldn't know it if you owned him, but 2009 might've been Jennings' best real-life football season. As noted in a postseason "player grades" column by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Jennings improved his after-catch production markedly (6.53 YAC average, up from 4.34 in '08) and posted a team- and career-best "drop rate" (4.69%). He had more yards per catch in 2009 than in 2008, Jennings' 16.4-yard average good for sixth best in the NFL among players with 40+ receptions.

2. Pass protection problems sapped Jennings' production.

Jennings is Green Bay's deep threat, so he naturally gets the ball less when Aaron Rodgers can't hang in the pocket to throw downfield. With tackles Chad Clifton (high ankle sprain) and Mark Tauscher (torn ACL) battling injuries, Rodgers took a league-high 50 sacks last year. Green Bay was forced to feature possession wideout Donald Driver, who led the team in targets.

When Clifton and Tauscher finally got healthy at midseason, the shift from Driver to Jennings as the Packers' top receiver was immediate and dramatic. Jennings went from averaging 55.5 yards per game in Weeks 2-10 to 87.5 yards per week in Green Bay's final eight games, including the playoffs. Driver, on the other hand, averaged 77 yards per contest in the first 11 but 43.2 in the last six. Driver had just two receptions of 20+ yards in the final six affairs, compared to Jennings' 11. If extrapolated over the course of 16 games, Jennings' total would've obliterated Andre Johnson's league-best 22.

4. Green Bay's offensive line was solidified this offseason.

Clifton and Tauscher were re-signed and got healthy. While their age (34, 33) remains a concern, both career Packers can still pass protect. Clifton and Tauscher combined for just five sacks allowed last season, while fill-ins Daryn Colledge, Allen Barbre, and T.J. Lang combined for a whopping 21. To boot, Green Bay stole 2009 Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year Bryan Bulaga with the 23rd overall pick. The team now has a starting-capable "swing" tackle in reserve.

5. The Packers wanted Jennings to be their "No. 1" in 2009.

They just couldn't make it happen due to the line issues. Last June, the Packers made Jennings one of the NFL's highest paid wideouts with a four-year, $27 million contract. Coach Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson realize who their best receiver is, and will be able to feed Jennings now that it's more feasible. Driver was the "No. 1" last year only because he runs shorter routes.

6. Driver is at severe risk of falling off the proverbial cliff.

Observers have called for Driver's demise in each of the last three seasons. It's going to happen, and there are plenty of reasons to think this is the year. A month before turning 35, Driver had January surgery on both of his knees. The procedures were termed routine "scopes," but he couldn't practice at OTAs five months later. The Packers are allowing Driver to play out his contract year without any known extension talks, indicating Thompson knows the end is near.

In Wednesday's column with Adam Levitan, Orthopedic specialist Dr. Brian Eckenrode admitted it's "certainly a possibility" that Driver's surgically repaired knees will give him trouble during the season, while noting he's "not going to last forever." If Driver misses time or experiences a reduction in effectiveness -- both good bets -- Jennings will become the first option on the vast majority of passing plays.

Conclusion

Fantasy football is a crapshoot more often than not. We can't say for sure that Driver is headed for decline, or that Jennings is primed to regain top-five fantasy receiver status. But on both accounts, the arrow sure points that way. Knee surgery, and in this case two of them, isn't typically kind to aging wideouts (e.g. Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Terry Glenn, Javon Walker). Jennings is undoubtedly the Packers' best receiver, and he deserves to the opportunities accordingly.

Our advice is simple: Avoid Driver and target Jennings.

 

[HacheMan]

Movers and Shakers
The second edition of the 2010 Rotoworld/Beckett Fantasy Magazine was wrapped up last week, and it should be available on newsstands by mid-July. The majority of the magazine's contents are also available in the online edition of the Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

As a way of introducing the offseason's most drastic winners and losers, I thought it would be instructive to note the difference in Rotoworld's rankings from the first magazine in May to second magazine in early July.

Before breaking down the rankings by position, let's take a second to highlight the offseason's biggest riser: Johnny Knox. In the first magazine, Evan Silva had Knox ranked No. 60 among wide receivers while Gregg Rosenthal and I both had him coming in at No. 46. All three of us ranked Devin Hester in the mid-30s while our Devin Aromashodu rankings were 25, 49, and 35.

After a little more than a month, Knox has leapfrogged both receivers. Silva pushed him from 60 to 24, I brought him from 46 to 27, and Rosenthal bumped him from 46 to 34. The most talented of the Bears' receivers, Knox joins the Steelers' Mike Wallace as our favorite candidates for breakout seasons in the style of Sidney Rice and Miles Austin last year.

Quarterbacks Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers remain neck-and-neck for the top spot. Brees appears to be the consensus No. 1 in industry circles even though Rodgers outscored him by 30 points in standards leagues last season. There's a Texas Showdown after the top three, with Silva and I preferring Tony Romo in his loaded offense while Rosenthal gives the edge to Matt Schaub in his own high-scoring unit.

With Vincent Jackson bringing a suspension, trade talk, and holdout drama to the Bolts' passing game, Philip Rivers has dropped from No. 6 to a virtual dead-heat with Brett Favre at No. 8 and No. 9. ... We continue to think highly of Jay Cutler's fantasy outlook under Mike Martz, keeping him at No. 7. ... Kevin Kolb remains Rosenthal's choice for a breakout season while I prefer Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. ... We're unswayed by the optimism coming out of Cincinnati. Carson Palmer still ranks just 17th -- behind Matthew Stafford. ... Ben Roethlisberger, a potential fantasy starter by mid-October, has jumped ahead of Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb as the best of the QB2s.

Running Backs As a general rule, we don't trust anything Browns coach Eric Mangini says (not even "Hello."). So Montario Hardesty's passing of fellow rookie Ben Tate goes beyond Mangini's effusive praise over the past month. Hardesty, a bigger and more talented back than Jerome Harrison, has already shown a knack for blitz-pickup, pass-catching, and knowledge of the offense -- three areas that trip up most rookie backs. The Cleveland Plain Dealer has nominated the second-rounder as "the one player that can earn [GM] Tom Heckert's first Browns draft an A in Year One."

The top five backs remain the same, with Chris Johnson leading into Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, and Ray Rice. ... DeAngelo Williams was given a slight bump with Jonathan Stewart dropping two spots. While I love Stewart's talent, I'm not as confident as Silva and Rosenthal that coach John Fox is ready to make this a dead-even 50-50 timeshare. ... Jamaal Charles, Pierre Thomas, and Jahvid Best remain Rotoworld favorites, ranking No. 8, No. 13, and No. 17 respectively. ... Knowshon Moreno climbed four spots, from No. 22 to No. 18. ... All three of us ranked Felix Jones at No. 20 in the first magazine, and he remained there on all of our lists for the second magazine. ... Silva and I are split on the Oakland backfield. I have Darren McFadden as a prime breakout candidate at No. 23 whereas Silva ranks him just 40th, with Michael Bush more than ten spots higher.



Wide Receivers We can't talk about receivers without first addressing Vincent Jackson, who has seen his stock fall more than any other player from May to July. Assuming a potential 1-2 game suspension, V-Jax came in at No. 11 in the first magazine. By the time we set about ranking him in late June, there was a chance he would sit out until Week 10 -- if not the entire season. Evan, who explained that he couldn't pull the trigger on V-Jax right now, dropped him all the way to 31 while Gregg and I had him at 16 and 23 respectively. He's now certain to miss three games due to suspension, and he could be in a different uniform come September.

Greg Jennings and Steve Smith South both fall into our top-12 at the position, but the three of us are all over the map on their values. I still have Smith at No. 7 while Rosenthal kept him at No. 13 and Silva dropped him from No. 14 to No. 16. Similarly, Silva is the Jennings lover at No. 6 while I have him 11th and Rosenthal has him 17th. ... All three of us believe Michael Crabtree is 14th, Percy Harvin is 21st, and -- oddly enough -- Panthers rookie Brandon LaFell is 77th. ... We still have no clue who will lead the Giants in fantasy points. Steve Smith North averaged a 19 ranking while Hakeem Nicks came in at 19.7. ... Silva and I both love what we're hearing about Miles Austin moving to the slot in three-receiver sets. To find out where he and Dez Bryant rank, you'll have to purchase the Draft Guide.

The biggest difference of opinion in the entire magazine? I have Jabar Gaffney ranked at least 30(!) spots higher than he appears on the lists of Silva and Rosenthal. Here's a hint: Gaffney will be on all of my teams this year.

Tight Ends We can't come close to an agreement on the order of the top-5 tight ends, but we do agree that they're incredibly close in value. Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley, Vernon Davis, and Jason Witten all average between 2.33 and 4.0 on our lists.

Brent Celek has bypassed Tony Gonzalez as our top choice after the Big Five. ... Zach Miller West is easily our favorite bargain at the position. ... I'm buying the Dustin Keller optimism coming out of Jets offseason workouts this year, but Rosenthal and Silva remain skeptical. ... Silva and I both like Tony Scheffler as a bounce-back candidate while Rosenthal sees big things in store for Fred Davis. ... Jermaine Gresham, our highest ranked rookie, comes in at just No. 22.

Kickers Shayne Graham went from the low 30s to the top ten after signing with the Ravens. ... Nick Folk's shaky showing in offseason practices doesn't inspire confidence. ... We still think the Cowboys will be forced to bring in a field-goal specialist after David Buehler proves untrustworthy in preseason action. Keep an eye on Dallas native Matt Stover. ... Neil Rackers has to be considered the favorite over Kris Brown for the Texans' job. ... The Packers signaled their faith in Mason Crosby, opting against competition this summer.

 

[HacheMan]

Picking Wideout Fliers
In a standard 15-round draft, you are going to spend your first eight picks on starters. You are going to spend your last two picks on a defense and a kicker. In between those slots is where we can swing for the fences with upside picks. And when it comes to taking fliers, the easiest position to hit at is wide receiver.

Let's take a look at the history of some successful wide receiver fliers and their situation coming into the year. These wideouts had average draft positions (ADPs) between 100 and 170 and then finished among the top 30 players at their position:

2009: ADP/FINAL RANK AT WR
* Hakeem Nicks: 126.1/28th -- A late first-round pick in the real draft (29th overall). Was part of the messy battle for snaps in the Giants' receiving corps.
* Miles Austin: 136.7/3rd -- A fourth-year vet that was relatively unknown. Had always shown talent in practice. Came into year third on depth chart.
* Steve Smith (NY): 143.2/11th - A third-year vet that caught 57 balls in 2008. Moved up depth chart heading into season and was considered a probable starter at fantasy draft time.
* Robert Meachem: 151.6/19th - The No. 3 receiver in a pass-heavy, explosive offense.
* Sidney Rice: 165.6/8th - Another third-year breakout. Got a huge boost from the change in quarterback to Brett Favre.

To see our exact projections and ranks for all receivers, get the draft guide!

2008: ADP/FINAL RANK AT WR
* Vincent Jackson: 102.3/12th - In his fourth year, V-Jax finally landed a starting gig.
* Derrick Mason: 105.9/21st - The ageless veteran was simply underrated despite being the clear No. 1 receiver in Baltimore.
* DeSean Jackson: 142.0/29th - A second-round pick in the real draft (50th overall). Quickly moved past Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis on the depth chart.
* Kevin Walter: 149.8/18th - Was the clear No. 2 receiver in the Texans' pass-heavy offense.
* Eddie Royal: 156.1/19th - A second-round pick in the real draft (43rd overall). Was in the mix for the No. 2 WR job right out of the gate.

2007: ADP/FINAL RANK AT WR
* Kevin Curtis: 100.1/17th - It was his first year with the Eagles. Had a lock on starting job.
* Brandon Marshall: 116.9/9th - Entered camp battling for a starting gig with Brandon Stokley. We knew the talent was there.
* Derrick Mason: 132.5/20th - Again, he was simply underrated.
* Wes Welker: 143.2/11th - It was his first year with the Patriots and it turned out to be a perfect fit for the slot machine.
* Dwayne Bowe: 146.7/24th - A first-round pick in the real draft (23rd overall). Was expected to start right out of the gate.
* Nate Burleson: 159.5/27th - Moved up the depth chart to starting split end by beating out D.J Hackett late in the preseason.
* Reggie Williams: 161.5/28th - The 2004 first-round pick caught just 38 balls, but 10 went for touchdowns. A fluke more than a breakout.

WHAT WE LEARNED
Above you can see all the fliers that worked out and what their situations were coming into the year. Using that data as clues, here is what we're looking for in wide receiver fliers:

* Talented receivers finally getting the opportunity to produce (Miles Austin 2009, Steve Smith 2009, Vincent Jackson 2008, Brandon Marshall 2007, Nate Burleson 2007).

* No. 2 or 3 receivers in extremely productive passing games (Robert Meachem 2009, Kevin Walter 2008).

* Change of scenery and/or upgrade at quarterback (Sidney Rice 2009, Kevin Curtis 2007, Wes Welker 2007).

* Talented rookies with a good chance at starting gigs (Hakeem Nicks 2009, DeSean Jackson 2008, Eddie Royal 2008, Dwayne Bowe 2007).

* I'm throwing out the Derrick Mason years. Aging veterans are almost always poor fliers. Mason is virtually the lone exception over the last few years.

2010 FLIERS
Here are my favorite receivers coming off the board in Round 11 or later:

1. JOHNNY KNOX, ADP: 109.4
Knox falls into the "moving up depth chart" kind of flier. We've talked plenty about how Mike Martz's offense will change the Bears' entire offensive attack. The problem is that if Knox continues to hold off Devin Aromashodu for a starting spot, he probably will lose his flier status. That ADP will rise into the 80s.

2. JACOBY JONES, ADP: 148.9
Jones is a talented receiver that will be the No. 2 or 3 wideout in an explosive passing offense. Kevin Walter has the money, but Jones is the future. This could be a situation similar to the Eagles in 2008, when DeSean Jackson clearly outplayed Kevin Curtis and received a ton of targets.

3. DEVIN THOMAS, ADP: 147.7
Thomas is getting an upgrade at quarterback and a change in scheme with Mike Shanahan coming on board. The light has shown signs of never coming on with Thomas, but Donovan McNabb has done great things with much less talented receivers. If Thomas is ever going to break out, he's not going to get a much better situation.

4. GOLDEN TATE, ADP: 126.3
Much like rookies Bowe in 2007 and Jackson in 2008, Tate is arguably the most talented receiver on his team's roster. And just like Bowe, Jackson, Royal and Nicks, he was a second-round choice or better in the real draft. Out of all the rookie receivers, Tate has the best opportunity to produce right now.

5. JAMES JONES, ADP: 163.7
Jones is currently the No. 3 receiver in the Packers' high-powered passing game, but that could change quickly. With Donald Driver's knees in questionable condition, Jones appears ready to step in at any time. He's a stash candidate that could pay off big midway through the season.

Honorable mention: Kenny Britt, Jabar Gaffney, Laurent Robinson, Early Doucet, Harry Douglas.

 

[HacheMan]

Searching for draft trends

Here at Rotoworld and elsewhere in the fantasy industry, we often track so-called "expert" mock drafts to get a read on early trends for the 2010 season. While it's a useful gauge for draft tendencies such as quarterbacks going earlier than ever, running backs going later than ever, and tight ends going deeper than ever, there's one question that rarely gets asked: Is the average league following similar guidelines?

For many readers, a typical draft is held with high school / college buddies or the folks at the office, not 11 fantasy lifers following NFL news 8-10 hours a day. Is the average league sporting trends similar to those of the industry mocks? With that question in mind, I convinced a group of 12 friends in Cincinnati to send along the results of their local "Thundercon League" draft for comparison and contrast with expert mock drafts.

Before breaking down each round, allow me to share my expectations on the differences between an average league and industry mock:

The average league is less likely to follow offseason trends and generally accepted truisms within the industry, such as "don't trust rookie receivers" or "don't draft a kicker until the final round."

In addition to kickers, the average league will address tight ends and defenses much earlier than an industry draft.

The average league is more leery of players with injury and suspension concerns.

The average league is less likely to trust possible one-year wonders or "Johnny Come Lately's."

The average league is more susceptible to protecting itself against a run on any one position.

Whereas industry veterans tend to engage in far too much groupthink while coming to a consensus on strategy and player values, the average league will see more "going from the gut" picks on personal favorites (This is one area where I believe the "experts" come up short against the average league).

On to the draft results:

Round One

1.1 Chris Johnson
1.2. Adrian Peterson
1.3. Ray Rice
1.4. Maurice Jones-Drew
1.5. Andre Johnson
1.6. Michael Turner
1.7. Larry Fitzgerald
1.8. Frank Gore
1.9. Drew Brees
1.10. Aaron Rodgers
1.11. Calvin Johnson
1.12. DeAngelo Williams

The first round doesn't show many irregularities with three industry drafts in which I've participated. This league is following the general trend of quarterbacks going earlier than ever. The main differences here are Frank Gore and Calvin Johnson. Gore fell to eighth after going in the Top-5 in all industry drafts while the "experts" saved Johnson for the mid-second round.

Round Two

2.1 Shonn Greene
2.2 Philip Rivers
2.3 Ryan Mathews
2.4 Ryan Grant
2.5 Reggie Wayne
2.6 Joseph Addai
2.7 Brandon Marshall
2.8 Peyton Manning
2.9 Rashard Mendenhall
2.10 Steven Jackson
2.11 Randy Moss
2.12 Chris Wells

Rivers, Addai, S-Jax, and Mendenhall are the biggest outliers here. Rivers and Addai are going off the board in Round Four of the industry drafts, so the "experts" would see both players as reaches in the second. As expected, this league is more concerned about S-Jax's back injury. He went in the mid-first of all three industry drafts. Mendenhall is another back with a first-round draft grade among the experts, but this league wants to see him prove that last year wasn't a fluke.

Round Three

3.1 Matt Schaub
3.2 Roddy White
3.3 Greg Jennings
3.4 Tony Romo
3.5 Jonathan Stewart
3.6 DeSean Jackson
3.7 Jamaal Charles
3.8 Dallas Clark
3.9 Jahvid Best
3.10 Knowshon Moreno
3.11 LeSean McCoy
3.12 Antonio Gates

Two tight ends in the third round? You won't see that in the industry mocks. The "experts" won't touch a tight end until Round Four at the earliest, concentrating instead on building up their backs and receivers. While Rotoworld loves Jamaal Charles, he's been all over the map in industry drafts. We can't feign shock over his third-round selection, though we'd advise grabbing him in the second. Our Jahvid Best hype train is reaching the masses, as he was chosen even higher here than he's been going in the mocks.

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Round Four

4.1 Marques Colston
4.2 Miles Austin
4.3 Vincent Jackson
4.4 Michael Crabtree
4.5 Sidney Rice
4.6 Vernon Davis
4.7 Brent Celek
4.8 Anquan Boldin
4.9 Steve Smith (NYG)
4.10 Percy Harvin
4.11 Steve Smith (CAR)
4.12 Mike Sims-Walker

Is Miles Austin a fraud? This league believes so. He's been a solid second-rounder in industry mocks, and Rotoworld has him as a Top-5 receiver this year. Steve Smith North was drafted before Steve Smith South, ostensibly due to the latter's fractured forearm. South has gone before North in all industry drafts. The one player that the "experts" do believe will hold out, Vincent Jackson, is getting the benefit of the doubt here. We wouldn't recommend taking him before Round Six or Seven at this point.

Round Five

5.1 Dwayne Bowe
5.2 Pierre Thomas
5.3 Tom Brady
5.4 Cedric Benson
5.5 Jermichael Finley
5.6 Dez Bryant
5.7 Chad Ochocinco
5.8 Hakeem Nicks
5.9 Felix Jones
5.10 Robert Meachem
5.11 Jason Witten
5.12 Matt Ryan

Two solid RBs sunk like a stone. One of the drafters conceded that Benson's free fall was precipitated by suspension concerns whereas the "experts" tend to believe reports that no suspension will be forthcoming. Thomas has been a third-rounder in all industry mocks, but there seems to be a "fool me once . . . " hesitation here due to his past inconsistent workloads. I love Dez Bryant, but you won't see the "experts" taking a rookie receiver before Ochocinco or Nicks. Oddly enough, Brady was taken a full three rounds after Philip Rivers and just nine picks before Matt Ryan. This appears to be nothing more than an aberration.

Round Six

6.1 Pierre Garcon
6.2 Matt Forte
6.3 C.J. Spiller
6.4 Mike Wallace
6.5 Ronnie Brown
6.6 Carson Palmer
6.7 Joe Flacco
6.8 Montario Hardesty
6.9 Jeremy Maclin
6.10 Wes Welker
6.11 Tony Gonzalez
6.12 Kellen Winslow

We see the first signs of the homer effect here, with Palmer going off the board a round ahead of Kevin Kolb and Jay Cutler. Ronnie Brown and Montario Hardesty are seen here as the clear victors in their respective backfields, as is C.J. Spiller. Garcon, surprisingly, is going off the board in the six round of industry mocks as well. That's a bit rich for our taste.

Round Seven

7.1 Donald Brown
7.2 Brett Favre
7.3 Steve Slaton
7.4 Kevin Kolb
7.5 Hines Ward
7.6 Reggie Bush
7.7 Jay Cutler
7.8 Ahmad Bradshaw
7.9 Ben Tate
7.10 Demaryius Thomas
7.11 Eli Manning
7.12 Kenny Britt

The first two Texans running backs come off the board, and nobody is believing Arian Foster's current spot atop the depth chart. Bradshaw was drafted a round before Brandon Jacobs whereas the "experts" all have Jacobs as the clear winner in the Giants backfield. Boring yet reliable veteran Hines Ward fell about two rounds too far here.

Round Eight

8.1 Brandon Jacobs
8.2 Donald Driver
8.3 Johnny Knox
8.4 Golden Tate
8.5 Matthew Stafford
8.6 Nate Kaeding
8.7 Antonio Bryant
8.8 Marion Barber
8.9 Steve Breaston
8.10 Santonio Holmes
8.11 Jets Defense
8.12 Braylon Edwards

The first kicker and defense fly off the board in Round Eight?! You won't see either position addressed in industry mocks before the final three rounds. While I'd never advise going kicker or defense until late in the draft, my suspicion is that the "experts" play in a lot more leagues that use an extra flex player, lending more importance to depth at running back and receiver.

Round Nine

9.1 Eddie Royal
9.2 Darren Sproles
9.3 Owen Daniels
9.4 T.J. Houshmandzadeh
9.5 Fred Jackson
9.6 Michael Bush
9.7 Vikings Defense
9.8 Ben Roethlisberger
9.9 Devin Hester
9.10 Garrett Hartley
9.11 Stephen Gostkowski
9.12 Mason Crosby

Three more kickers are gone. As it was explained to me, there was a concern among the owners here that a run on kickers would leave them with a poor option at the position. We'd advise that this is no concern at all. Kickers are unpredictable from year to year, and a valid option can always be found on the waiver wire. Fred Jackson, seen as a borderline RB2 in industry mocks, finally went off the board three rounds after C.J. Spiller. Michael Bush is tabbed here as the winner in the Oakland backfield.

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Round Ten

10.1 Mark Sanchez
10.2 Eagles Defense
10.3 Saints Defense
10.4 Ryan Longwell
10.5 Devin Aromashodu
10.6 Visanthe Shiancoe
10.7 Packers Defense
10.8 David Akers
10.9 Dolphins Defense
10.10 Ravens Defense
10.11 Malcom Floyd
10.12 Rob Bironas

It's a run on defenses. Again, there was a concern among many of the drafters that they would be left with a mediocre defense whereas the "experts" realize most of these defenses will end up mediocre themselves. Aromashodu is the third Bears receiver drafted in the past three rounds, with starters Johnny Knox and Devin Hester being chosen first. Everyone seems to agree that one of the Chicago receivers will break out, but industry mocks are all over the map with their favorites. For what's worth, we're backing Knox.

Round Eleven

11.1 Steelers Defense
11.2 Chris Cooley
11.3 Chad Henne
11.4 Matt Prater
11.5 Alex Smith
11.6 Bernard Scott
11.7 LaDainian Tomlinson
11.8 Carnell Williams
11.9 Cowboys Defense
11.10 Laurence Maroney
11.11 Zach Miller
11.12 Tim Hightower

Tight ends Cooley and Miller are seen as inferior to Visanthe Shiancoe here. Miller is no surprise, however. He's a tremendous value this year no matter who is doing the drafting. Kudos to the Thundercon league for realizing that Beanie Wells and Shonn Greene should be long gone before the names of Tomlinson and Hightower are announced. They'll be proven right in the end.

Round Twelve

12.1 Bengals Defense
12.2 Darren McFadden
12.3 Jermaine Gresham
12.4 Tim Tebow
12.5 49ers Defense
12.6 Justin Forsett
12.7 Shayne Graham
12.8 Santana Moss
12.9 Jerome Harrison
12.10 Ricky Williams
12.11 Donovan McNabb
12.12 Vince Young

We're starting to see some real separation now. McFadden and Forsett, perceived by many as every week flex plays, would have been off the board four or five rounds ago. Rookies Gresham and Tebow appear to have fervent admirers, as they've gone undrafted in most industry mocks. It's hard to believe that McNabb and Young, solid backup QBs, were drafted after a severe longshot like Tebow. Santana Moss, a legit WR2/3 if the Redskins don't add a No. 1 receiver before the season, should have been long gone.

Round Thirteen

13.1 Chester Taylor
13.2 Derrick Mason
13.3 Austin Collie
13.4 Toby Gerhart
13.5 Arrelious Benn
13.6 Chaz Schilens
13.7 Terrell Owens
13.8 James Jones
13.9 Nate Burleson
13.10 Matt Leinart
13.11 Arian Foster
13.12 Julian Edelman

This, apparently, is the grab-bag round. Taylor goes seven rounds after Matt Forte, as it should be. Foster could be a steal if he starts the season as the Texans' lead back. Declining vets Mason and Owens are mixed in with potential breakout receivers such as Collie, Benn, Schilens, Jones, and Edelman.

Round Fourteen

14.1 Sam Bradford
14.2 Jabar Gaffney
14.3 Heath Miller
14.4 Bears Defense
14.5 Lawrence Tynes
14.6 Jerricho Cotchery
14.7 Broncos Defense
14.8 Giants Defense
14.9 Josh Cribbs
14.10 Thomas Jones
14.11 Clinton Portis
14.12 Marshawn Lynch

Bradford is the final quarterback selected, leaving QB2 candidates David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, and Josh Freeman available. Gaffney, the Broncos' likely No. 1 receiver to open the season, goes off the board seven rounds after raw rookie Demaryius Thomas. The Thundercon League doesn't believe Jones and Portis have much left in the tank. They'll come out ahead of the "experts" on that score.

Round Fifteen

15.1 Lee Evans
15.2 David Buehler
15.3 Kris Brown
15.4 Chargers Defense
15.5 Dustin Keller
15.6 Early Doucet
15.7 Anthony Gonzalez
15.8 Colts Defense
15.9 Devin Thomas
15.10 Javon Ringer
15.11 Kevin Walter
15.12 Tashard Choice

This round is most notable for the players not drafted. Dustin Keller is the final tight end, leaving Greg Olsen and even Top-10 candidate John Carlson on the table. While Ringer and Choice make fine "handcuffs," it's surprising that Willis McGahee and Larry Johnson remain available. It's also worth noting Evans in the 15th round. Despite his obvious talent, many aren't falling for the hype in Buffalo's hamstrung offense.