Miscellaneous Offesason Fantasy Football News

[HacheMan]

Back from a break
There's a reason that people like us love events like the NFL's offseason, MLB hot stove and NBA trading deadline: It feels like fantasy.

Real owners, coaches and general managers are making roster decisions that we make all the time. Should I cut this guy, add that guy, make a trade, stand pat or look to the future? We're starting to some of these decisions being made:

DONTE' STALLWORTH IS A RAVEN
It's a decent fit for the Ravens, who are absolutely desperate for receiving help. However, that doesn't mean Stallworth will have fantasy value.

Let's operate under the assumption that drama queen Derrick Mason will be back. The Ravens receiving corps looks like Mason, Stallworth, Mark Clayton, Kelley Washington and Demetrius Williams. Yikes.

The last time we saw Stallworth on the field was 2008 with the Browns, when a hamstring injury contributed to a 17-catch season. So throw out 2008 and 2009. Back in 2007, he often played behind Jabar Gaffney in New England while catching just 46 balls. He never has had a 1,000 yard season and has caught more than 58 passes in a season just once.

Yes, Stallworth is fast. But he's also overrated. Our own draft guru Evan Silva thinks the Ravens will take a receiver with their first-round draft pick and that would likely kick Stallworth to a third receiver kind of role. The bottom line is that we're not excited about Stallworth's fantasy prospects.

WHERE WILL TOMLINSON LAND?
The Chargers likely won't release LaDainian Tomlinson until March 4, a day before free agency opens. Don't look for LT2's phone to ring at midnight. The beat writers for potential suitors like the Browns, Saints and Texans have already shot the idea down. The Chiefs, Seahawks or Eagles might make sense, but it could very well take an injury in training camp before Tomlinson gets an offer. It's a sad way for one of the greatest fantasy players ever to go out.

TRADING ANTONIO
The Chargers reportedly want to deal CB Antonio Cromartie, and Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune had an interesting idea. Ship Cromartie to the swiss cheese secondary of the Bucs in exchange for one of their running backs.

Just a fantasy here and the odds are that it will never happen, but Derrick Ward in a Chargers uniform seems like a decent fit. He can catch the ball, run tough between the tackles and saved some tread on those tired while watching Cadillac Williams' after-school special on perseverance last season.

MATT JONES IN THE LAND OF SECOND CHANCES
We're expecting even less from Matt Jones than we are from Donte' Stallworth. The dude simply isn't that good. Yeah, Carson Palmer's arm is declining badly and Jones fits that because he runs a nice slant pattern, but since when is that something to get excited about? The Bengals need a real receiver opposite Chad Ochocinco and he knows it. Chad is still campaigning for Terrell Owens to come to Cinci, something that almost certainly won't happen.

RANDOM THOUGHTS
Nice career, Jamal Lewis. You were a beast for awhile, but in the end your fantasy legacy will be holding back Jerome Harrison. … I don't see the Eagles letting go of Kevin Kolb, even if Donovan McNabb is the starter in 2010. They see Kolb as the man of the future. … How can the Redskins' new running backs coach and GM be raving about Clinton Portis? He's a cancer in the locker room and he's not even good on the field anymore. … Having a good kicker is important, but someone should remind the Raiders that having a good quarterback is more important. … Follow me on Twitter (@adamlevitan) for a lot of fantasy hoops ranting, some Sixers news and random fantasy football thoughts.

 

[HacheMan]

The Real McCoy?
Now that Brian Westbrook is out of the picture, logical reasoning follows that LeSean McCoy will be a fantasy monster worthy of a top-20 pick next season. Pump the breaks.

First and most importantly, McCoy is not Westbrook. He struggles in blitz pickup which kept him off the field at points last season. He carries the ball away from his body, something that concerns the coaching staff. He appears hesitant at the line sometimes and isn't quite as elusive as Westbrook was. McCoy is a solid receiver, but he's not on Westbook's level.

On top of that, we already have a sample on what to expect from McCoy. Westbrook completely missed eight games last season. In those games, McCoy averaged 13.2 rushes for 59.1 yards and 2.7 catches for 20.3 yards. He scored four total touchdowns. If we projected those numbers over a full 16 games, McCoy would have 1,272 total yards, eight touchdowns and 44 catches. Decent numbers, but nothing spectacular.

And finally, when coach Andy Reid says that McCoy will "take the ball from here," we need to take that with a grain of salt. No one thinks that McCoy is ready to carry the ball on every running play, be the goal-line back and be the third-down back. Leonard Weaver is a restricted free agent that will be back and you can be sure the Eagles will bring in another runner. There was even a report out of Philly today that if Westbrook doesn't like what he finds on the open market, there's a possibility he could be back with the Birds.

Can McCoy's numbers take a leap forward this season? Sure. He'll only be 22 when Week 1 comes around and will have a whole offseason to prepare for his starting role. There's real upside here, something fantasy owners should covet at all costs. But if you're expecting those Brian Westbrook numbers circa 2007 out of McCoy, you've got another thing coming.

ANOTHER "OLD MAN" IS CUT
It's hard to feel bad for LaDainian Tomlinson. He likely could have accepted the fact that he's a shell of his former self, accepted a pay cut and come back to the Chargers. He actually had a good thing going in San Diego at this stage of his career -- Philip Rivers gets them down to the 1-yard line and LT2 punches it in. It was perfect.

But Tomlinson was too proud, and now he's going to find out just how cold it is on the open market. When Edgerrin James was on the street last summer, he said this: "There are not 32 backs out there who are better than me. I want to continue to play. I can play at a high level." Really? Is that why Edge didn't get picked up until a week before the season started, averaged 2.7 yards per carry and then got released after Week 8? Now Edge's career is likely done.

Shaun Alexander suffered a similar fate. So did Emmitt Smith and Eddie George. This is simply what happens to running backs -- even the greatest ones of all time. When the end comes, it comes suddenly.

Someone on the NFL Network said yesterday that Tomlinson could be a third-down back somewhere, like Kevin Faulk was for the Patriots over the last few seasons. Um, no. Not even close. That's like saying Allen Iverson could latch on to a bench somewhere and be as effective as Jamal Crawford. It's not going to happen, he's donezo.

So even though it's hard, we need to forget about LT2 in fantasy no matter where he lands. It's difficult because he was perhaps the greatest fantasy player of all time. For example, Chris Johnson had one of the greatest fantasy seasons of all time in 2009. But he didn't even sniff Tomlinson's best fantasy year, and neither could anyone else's career years:

LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006: 412.3 fantasy points
Priest Holmes in 2003: 373.0
Emmitt Smith in 1995: 364.8
Shaun Alexander in 2005: 363.8
Chris Johnson in 2009: 346.9
Eric Dickerson in 1984: 308.4

It's amazing how much can change in a running back's life in four years. The Texans, in need of a short-yardage back, reportedly don't want Tomlinson according to the Chronicle's John McClain. Browns beat writer Tony Grossi is already on record saying Tomlinson isn't a fit. Mike Triplett of the New Orleans Times-Picayune doesn't see Tomlinson as a Saint. The list could go on and on, and if Tomlinson demands a major role, finding a new team will be a painfully long process.

VINCENT'S PROBLEM
Vincent Jackson pled guilty to DUI on Tuesday morning and is facing four days of prison time with work release, which I believe means picking up trash on the side of a highway. That sucks for him, but we'll be more interested in what Roger Goodell has to say.

Jackson also has a 2006 drunken-driving charge on his record and was cited for driving with a suspended license just hours before the playoff loss to the Jets. Perhaps this dude should invest in a chauffeur. (Remember the drunk girl in "40 Year Old Virgin" who is driving and says "I'm hungry. I want some bleepin' French toast!" Hopefully that's not V-Jax).

Anyway, this prior history means Jackson is almost certainly looking at a one-game suspension in 2010. A 2-4 game suspension is a real possibility. Be aware.

RANDY GETS IT
Randy Moss is no dummy. When he said the Patriots don't pay, everyone knew what he meant. They think they can get anyone, coach them up in their system, go out and win. So why should they pay Randy Moss something exorbitant in a long-term deal after his effort was questionable at best last season? He knows they probably won't.

So Moss will be extra motivated this season as he's playing for the final big contract of his career. He has a tremendous track record in this spot, but no Wes Welker, two doses of Revis Island and a 33-year-old body means I'll stay away.

RANDOM THOUGHTS
Troy Williamson is back on my radar. He was so good in camp last year and Mike Thomas seems like a better fit as a slot guy. ... This "competition" between Matt Moore and Jake Delhomme is a joke. Moore is better, period. Give the guy the job. ... Westbrook as a Viking makes the most sense. He's still excellent in blitz pickup and out of the backfield. Former offensive coordinator turned Minnesota coach Brad Childress should be interested if Chester Taylor walks. ... Adam Schefter thinks Bruce Gradkowski will start for the Raiders next season and DeAngelo Williams won't be traded. ... Sporcle is ridiculously fun. I'm not sure how I entertained myself before the Internet.

 

[HacheMan]

Time to go Greene
In the first 13 games of 2009, Thomas Jones averaged 4.45 yards per carry. In his final six games, including the playoffs, Jones averaged 3.08 yards per carry. It's a small sample size, but it shows a decline. And when you combine that with Jones' age (31) and 2010 salary ($5.9 million), you have the latest veteran running back getting the axe.

But cutting Jones wasn't nearly as clear-cut as the release of LaDainian Tomlinson or Brian Westbrook. In fact, I'm pretty surprised the Jets didn't let Jones finish out his contract. He hasn't missed a game since 2005 and is a notorious workout warrior. He's a leader in the locker room and a mentor to the young guys. He'd likely accept playing behind Shonn Greene. Playing it out for $5.9 million seemed pretty reasonable. Then again, it's not my money.

So now what for the Jets? First of all, they are obviously very comfortable with how Leon Washington's rehab from a compound leg fracture. And most importantly, they are ready to ride Greene like a horse.

What can we expect out of Greene from a fantasy perspective? He has a lot going for him:

1. No one pounds the ball as much as the Jets - To call the Jets a "run-first team" is an egregious understatement. The attempted a league-high 607 runs in 2009, 82 more than the second place Panthers. The average team in the NFL ran the ball 27.51 times a game last season. The Jets were at 37.93 a game.

As Mark Sanchez progresses, they'll gradually pass the ball a little more. But for now, 525 rushing team rushing attempts in 2010 is a very safe projection.

2. The Jets have the best run-blocking line in the league - C Nick Mangold, LG Alan Faneca, LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson, RG Brandon Moore and RT Damien Woody deserve some credit. Tomlinson might even be able to average 4.0 yards a carry behind that line (OK, that was a cheap shot).

3. Greene can run - As a rookie, Greene had 15+ carries just four times all season. In those four games, he had 79 rushes for 502 yards and four touchdowns. Now, he never started a game. He was never the true focus of a defense. Maintaining a 5.0+ yards per carry average is not realistic.

Bottom line: Greene will get 325+ carries in 2010. As it stands now, he'll the man on the goal line. He's a real threat for 1,200+ rushing yards and 8+ touchdowns. That's enough for top-12 RB potential. Just be aware that he is not a quality receiver out of the backfield and should be downgraded severely in PPR leagues. … Jones can't land in a better situation than he was in last season. Even if he ends up somewhere like San Diego, I'll let someone else take a shot on him. … Let's see how Washington looks in offseason training before we get too excited. But if he's healthy, I'd expect 16-18 offensive touches a game, more than enough for flex play consideration.

TERRELL'S NEXT STOP
The Bills announced they will smartly move on from Terrell Owens. He's been linked to the Bengals, but only by Chad Ochocinco. He won't land in Cinci. Baltimore makes some sense on first glance, but coach John Harbaugh was with the Eagles when T.O. imploded on them. The bottom line is that Owens is going to find the open market very unkind to him.

THE RISE OF JERMICHAEL
As if Jermichael Finley's ADP next season needed to get any higher, coach Mike McCarthy named him the starter over Donald Lee for 2010. We wrote a ton about Finley last season, but now the cat is officially out of the bag. I could see people drafting Finley over elite names like Tony Gonzalez and it's warranted. In the final seven games of last season, Finley caught 38 passes for 416 yards with four touchdowns. He's the real deal.

PHILLY QB TALK
The most interesting storyline around the league as March 5 approaches is the Eagles and their three quarterbacks. There's a big game of poker going on here, with the Eagles holding all the cards. Deep down, I think they want to go with Kevin Kolb as their starter and get a first-round pick plus a player for Donovan McNabb. All this "obviously" Donovan will be here talk from Andy Reid is simple hot air. We'll see how the betting goes.

RANDOM THOUGHTS
The Chargers want Maurice Morris as part of this rumored Antonio Cromartie trade? That's not an answer. San Diego's back should come from the draft. … Greg Olsen is reportedly the subject of much trade chatter. That's not surprising, no matter how much Mike Martz says he wants to use Olsen. … The Eagles are a perfect fit for Julius Peppers. You know the Redskins will be involved in the sweepstakes as well. … The Texans reportedly want Kevin Walter back. I'm praying he goes somewhere else so we can get on the Jacoby Jones sleeper train.

 

[HacheMan]

Free Agent Fantasy Preview
Would you believe that not a single restricted free agent changed teams last year out of the 54 that were eligible? In the previous four years, only four percent of the 345 available restricted free agents changed teams. Contrast that with the 1,621 unrestricted free agents over the same time period, forty percent of whom moved on to greener pastures.

Teams are understandably loath to part with draft picks, the lifeblood of NFL rosters. By the time free agency rolls around, scouts and coaches are more excited about the prospects they just ogled at the NFL Combine. Why part with a pick to sign a restricted free agent when you can land a more talented player in the draft while holding his rights for four years?

It's for that reason that this article will emphasize unrestricted free agents and candidates to be traded or released while glossing over the restricted free agent batch. Our goal is to analyze the fantasy implications of this year's free agent crop, so we are most interested in those players changing teams.

Before moving on to the lists, it should be pointed out that the free agency rules have been somewhat modified this year due to the lack of a new collective bargaining agreement. Traditionally, players reach unrestricted free agency after their third or fourth year in the league. This year, however, all players must reach six years before controlling their own destiny. The result is a glut of restricted free agents -- approximately 200 – that would have been free under the old system. As you will see, there are more big names (especially at wide receiver) than ever falling into the category this year.

[SIZE=+1]Quarterbacks[/SIZE]

Restricted Free Agents: Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Matt Moore, Bruce Gradkowski, Tarvaris Jackson, Troy Smith, Kellen Clemens, Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, John Beck

Campbell and Orton aren't going anywhere on first-round tenders. Orton is a mortal lock to open Week 1 as the Broncos starter, and Campbell isn't far behind as the Redskins' likely starter. Orton stands to lose fantasy value with a potential Brandon Marshall exit while Campbell needs an impact No. 1 receiver to garner serious consideration as a high-end QB2 -- even with the upgrade to Mike Shanahan's offense.

Moore and Gradkowski will be extended at least second-round tenders. Considering their "competition" consists of Jake Delhomme and JaMarcus Russell – quite possibly the two worst starters in the league last season – both should be considered prohibitive favorites. Moore's relative success (6-2 record with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in eight career starts) gives him a leg up on Gradkowski (career 53.3 completion percentage and 5.4 yards per attempt) as a potential deep sleeper.

Unrestricted Free Agents:

Chad Pennington: We anointed Pennington the best of the dark-horse quarterbacks in deep leagues two weeks ago. With Pat White and Tyler Thigpen behind Chad Henne, a Miami return is unlikely. Coming off a third shoulder surgery, Pennington needs to prove he can at least make the throws he was making in 2008. If so, he would make for an ideal sparring partner for Matt Leinart in training camp. Outside of Arizona, it's tough to envision Pennington with fantasy value.

Prediction: Cardinals

Fantasy Afterthoughts: David Carr, Chris Redman, Jeff Garcia, Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller

Let's be honest: this QB free agent class is a joke. None of the passers on the above list have a shot to get drafted in fantasy leagues this summer, and most will not even appear in a game in 2010.

Trade Candidates:

Donovan McNabb / Kevin Kolb: If the Eagles weren't in a playoff window, this would be a much easier decision. As it is, though, McNabb offers Andy Reid the best chance to win now while Kolb remains the quarterback of the future. Unless they receive the proverbial "offer they can't refuse," the Eagles appear poised to let McNabb finish out his contract at age 33 while working toward an extension with Kolb. At this point, both quarterbacks seem likely to stay in Philly.

Prediction: Both stay with Eagles

Michael Vick: The Eagles are doing their best sell-job, trying to convince the rest of the league that Vick will stay put if they don't receive a high draft pick as compensation. So far the only person taking the bait is NFL Network's Michael Lombardi. Unless the Eagles have a plan in place to deal either McNabb or Kolb, it makes no sense to fork out over $5 million for Vick in 2010. The smart money still has him landing elsewhere. The Rams will have a hard time passing up Sam Bradford, which would leave the Bills as the team in most need of Vick's services. Having gone four years without starting a game, he'd be nothing more than a high-upside QB2 as a starter.

Prediction: Bills

Troy Smith: Though Smith and his agent have been pushing for a trade, the Ravens don't seem obliged to comply.

Prediction: Ravens

Tyler Thigpen: Intriguing athletic ability but only an option in a gimmick offense. Even if Chan Gailey wants to reunite with Thigpen, he's not going to run the spread offense in Buffalo's elements. Expect Thigpen to stay in Miami.

Prediction: Dolphins' No. 2 QB

Candidates for Release: Derek Anderson, Marc Bulger, Byron Leftwich, Kerry Collins, Chris Simms

Similar to Pennington, Bulger's only chance for fantasy value is to land in a high-scoring offense with top-flight receivers already in place. He can't handle blitzes at this stage of his career, so consistency will be a factor. Anderson was positively brutal last season, as befitting a passer with a career 52.9 completion percentage. Leftwich's starting days are over after he flunked out as the Bucs starter in less than a month. Collins and Simms won't land in situations any better than those they occupied at the end of the season.

Teams in the Market: Rams, Bills, Browns, Raiders, Redskins, Cardinals, Panthers, Seahawks, Broncos, Jaguars

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[SIZE=+1]Running Backs[/SIZE]

Restricted Free Agents: Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas, Jerome Harrison, Carnell Williams, LenDale White, Leon Washington, Jason Snelling, Jerious Norwood, Le'Ron McClain, Mike Bell, Ryan Moats

Thomas is the one player from this list who could (and should) draw an offer sheet. One of the most effective per-play backs in the league the past two seasons, Thomas was tendered at just a second-round level by the Saints. A team like the Chargers would be wise to swoop in for the steal, but they'll be hesitant to hand out a hefty contract in the process. Despite Sean Payton's obsession with limiting Thomas' workload, New Orleans' high-flying offense remains his best bet for fantasy value.

Unrestricted Free Agents:

Darren Sproles: Technically still a RFA, Sproles is free to sign with any team after the Chargers declined to tender him an offer. Redskins owner Daniel Snyder is expected to throw around money "like it's Monopoly" while coach Mike Shanahan "covets" the pint-sized playmaker. Chargers GM A.J. Smith has made it clear that he's sees Sproles as nothing more than a change-of-pace back with return ability, so it's not a stretch to imagine the most explosive free agent back finding a bigger payday with a team such as the Redskins. Though he's likely to remain on returns regardless, Sproles has a chance to increase his offensive touches with the LaDainian Tomlinson quota out of the picture. Considering his past per-touch production, RB2 value is a realistic projection – especially in PPR leagues.

Prediction: Redskins

Thomas Jones: The Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, Jones gets no respect. Just like the Bears and Jets, we're guilty as charged. The history of aging running backs simply leaves a 32-year-old with five consecutive seasons of 290+ carries a poor bet for continued success. In a just world, Jones' back-to-back career years at ages 30 and 31 would afford him the benefit of the doubt. In the NFL, however, the sharp late-season decline that saw him severely outplayed by Shonn Greene will leave him as a complementary back in his new home. Potential suitors include the Chargers, Lions, Eagles, and Browns. In fantasy terms, San Diego would be his ideal landing spot as a possible RB2.

Prediction: Chargers

Chester Taylor: A free-agent success with the Vikings four years ago, Taylor broke off 1,502 yards and a top-12 fantasy finish before Adrian Peterson's arrival on the scene. Now 30 and coming off three seasons as possibly the best third-down back in the game, Taylor is hoping free-agent lightning strikes twice. Though he makes sense for plenty of teams (Vikings, Bears, Eagles, Browns), his best fantasy bet may be Detroit, where he could hold down the fort for Kevin Smith.

Prediction: Lions

Brian Westbrook: As opposed to dead men walking such as Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, and even LaDainian Tomlinson, Westbrook's 4.5 yards per carry in 2009 suggests he still has life left in his legs. Given a dozen touches per game, he could sniff RB2 numbers. For NFL and fantasy purposes alike, though, there isn't a bigger health risk in the game. In addition to the well-publicized concussion concerns, teams are just as leery of his troublesome left knee and right ankle. Although a reunion with Brad Childress in Minnesota is the most logical fit, recent word has Westbrook unlikely to choose a team that plays on turf. The Bears, Steelers, and Niners are grass-field teams that could use a player with Westbrook's skill-set.

Prediction: Vikings

LaDainian Tomlinson: We covered Tomlinson's free agent outlook last week. In a word, it's bleak. Tomlinson is far from an ideal third-down back at this stage of his career, and his 3.3 yards per carry and lifeless legs suggest his feature-back days are over. If he truly wants to play for a contender, LT is going to have to accept a short-yardage complementary role on a team such as the Eagles or Saints. No matter where he ends up, the future Hall of Famer is a player to shy away from in fantasy circles.

Prediction: Eagles

Willie Parker: Hitting the market at age 29, the artist formerly known as "Fast Willie" has lost his fastball. Though Parker did exhibit fresh legs in the season finale, he spent most of the season watching holes close before he could get to them. Always a poor bet to play 16 games, Parker will have to accept a the lesser half of a timeshare role with his new team.

Prediction: Browns

Larry Johnson: Now 30 years old, L.J. is a locker-room cancer and publicity nightmare coming off a 3.2 yards-per-carry season. Any team looking to sign him would do themselves a favor by comparing his production to Jamaal Charles' with the Chiefs last season. Johnson ran for just 2.7 yards per carry behind the same line that saw Charles explode for 5.9. L.J. is a longshot for a fantasy impact in 2010.

Fantasy Afterthoughts: Jamal Lewis, Kevin Faulk, Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Adrian Peterson

Candidates for Trade / Release:

Marshawn Lynch: With Fred Jackson having finally established himself as the superior back, a Lynch trade makes sense if the Bills can extract a couple of decent draft picks. They have enough holes on the roster that the extra draft picks will come in handy. If the offers don't roll in, however, Lynch will return as the Robin to F-Jax's Batman in Chan Gailey's two-back system. For the sake of both backs' fantasy value, a trade is the ideal scenario.

Tashard Choice: This appears to be the case of one whisper starting a chain reaction. Ever since the bogus Antonio Cromartie rumor, Choice's name has popped up on lists of backs available for trade, despite all indications from Dallas to the contrary. Choice will return to the Big D -- possibly with a slightly bigger role in 2009 – but he won't have value in most leagues until the first injury to Felix Jones or Marion Barber.

Justin Fargas / Michael Bush: Scout.com has pointed out that Fargas is due a roster bonus this spring, but the Tom Cable favorite is expected to remain in silver and black. The 30-year-old banger will continue to split carries in the Oakland backfield, leaving him undraftable in most fantasy leagues.

Bush, the Raiders' most effective per-play back the past two seasons, has seemingly been on the block since he entered the league. Unlike Fargas, he hasn't been able to earn the trust of the current coaching staff. Bush would make sense as a power back in Norv Turner's offense, but Al Davis won't trade him within the division. With all of the high-profile names now available on the free agent market, he's not a good bet to land the greater share of a committee attack.

Ladell Betts: Due $1.65 million, Betts is a candidate for release coming off a torn MCL and ACL. With both ligaments torn, he's a poor bet to return to pre-injury form at age 31.

Teams in the Market for a Running Back: Chargers, Texans, Seahawks, Lions, Browns, Redskins, Eagles, Rams, Jets, Bears, Patriots, Vikings, Chiefs, 49ers, Steelers, Giants

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[SIZE=+1]Wide Receivers[/SIZE]

Restricted Free Agents: Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Steve Breaston, Malcom Floyd, Mark Clayton, Domenik Hixon, Jason Avant, Lance Moore, Demetrius Williams, Brad Smith, Maurice Stovall, Troy Williamson, Sinorice Moss

Vincent Jackson and Miles Austin were dominant talents in 2009, among the top five players at their position. Considering the burn-out rate of draft picks, one could certainly make the argument that both playmaking receivers are worth the cost of a first- and third-round draft pick.

Fortunately for the Chargers and Cowboys, pilfering a restricted free agent involves much more complexity. Most teams signing a high-profile restricted free agent also attempt to lock up the player long-term, which means not only parting with draft picks but also paying through the nose in terms of salary. In effect, teams are paying double.

Even if this double jeopardy fails to scare off a potential suitor, the team holding the players' rights still has the opportunity to match all offers. For all of these reasons, no restricted free agents given the first-and-third tender have changed teams over the past five seasons. The one traditional loophole a/k/a the "poison pill" isn't considered a serious threat because the NFL has cracked down on the highly questionable tactic.

While Brandon Marshall still seems likely to leave Denver, Vincent and Austin will stay in San Diego and Dallas respectively.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Antonio Bryant: As an NFL free agent, Bryant is riddled with question marks. One of the biggest knuckleheads in the league over the past decade, the 29-year-old carries a ton of baggage. He'll also have to answer questions about a knee injury that nagged him off-and-on throughout the entirety of the 2009 season. Finally, he's long been known as an unwilling blocker and an indifferent route runner. On the flip side, he's quite possibly the most talented pass-catcher on the open market. If healthy, Bryant is still young enough to produce WR2 value with a quarterback upgrade this year.

Prediction: Redskins

Terrell Owens: This much we know: T.O. has struggled to beat press coverage for the past two seasons, and his production was artificially deflated by the crumbling Bills' offensive line and quarterback play last season. If he wasn't 36-years-old, Owens would be primed for a monstrous comeback season. As it is, his numbers are still likely to rebound somewhat – as long as he lands in a functional offense this time around.

Prediction: Lions

Nate Burleson: One of the few receivers available with the talent to play inside and outside, Burleson's free agent value will be depressed by his injury history. Though he was solid last season as the Seahawks' co-number one with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Burleson's ideal role is second fiddle to a more dynamic receiver. He's ticketed for borderline WR3 fantasy value in almost any destination.

Prediction: Seahawks

Chris Chambers: Left for dead by the Chargers early last season, Chambers resurrected his career with his Chiefs during Dwayne Bowe's suspension in December. Though he can still make the difficult grab, the 32-year-old has not produced consistently since 2005. Chambers won't be a hot commodity on the open market, so the best fit may be a return to Kansas City as Bowe's sidekick – and no better than a WR4/5 for fantasy purposes.

Predicition: Chiefs

Derrick Mason: The 36-year-old is a free agent in name only, since he's going to re-sign with the Ravens. Mason wants a multi-year deal and indications are the Ravens are willing to go to two years, so he's not going anywhere. Baltimore ideally wants to add a No. 1 receiver to push Mason into a subsidiary role, which means his fantasy stock could plummet in 2010.

Prediction: Ravens

Kevin Walter: A better NFL than fantasy player, Walter is a role player stretched as a No. 2 receiver. If he couldn't produce WR3 numbers in the Texans' high-powered offense, he's going to have a hard time getting back on the fantasy radar again in 2010. Let someone else use their late-round pick on him this summer.

Prediction: Bills

Torry Holt: The Panthers have been trying to find a young complement to Steve Smith for years, but they value solid citizens over any sign of a character risk. Holt has a bit more gas left in the tank than Muhsin Muhammad, and Carolina offers him a chance to return home. Regardless of his new home, Holt's days as even a WR3 are over.

Prediction: Panthers

No Fantasy Value: Muhsin Muhammad, Josh Reed, Joey Galloway, Kelley Washington, Bobby Wade, Arnaz Battle, Mark Bradley

Candidates for Trade:

Anquan Boldin: Before this year, it never made sense for the Cardinals to deal Boldin for the underwhelming offers they were received. A team leader and fierce competitor, Boldin was an asset with a cheap contract playing for a contender. Now that he enters the final year of his deal with Early Doucet and Steve Breaston ready to take on more responsibility in the passing game, the Cardinals would be best served by accepting the highest offer they receive for Boldin. The Ravens, a contender in their own right, have an obvious need for a big, physical go-to receiver who can make plays in the red zone. Boldin is an obvious fit, and the Ravens should be able to land him with a third-rounder this year plus an added 2011 pick.

Prediction: Ravens

Brandon Marshall: The Broncos' tender offer is essentially a dare to any team willing to part with a first-round pick to sign the biggest character risk in the league. Josh McDaniels & Co. realized no team was going to surrender more than a first-round pick in trade, with Marshall also demanding a new mega-deal. I'm not buying a quality organization such as the Ravens making a play for Marshall. It's going to take a franchise with a vacancy at playmaker and a willingness to throw caution to the wind. If the Bengals sense an opportunity for a bargain deal, they'll dive in head-first on a talented character risk such as Marshall. No matter where he ends up, Marshall carries borderline WR1 fantasy value as long as he can stay on the field.

Prediction: Bengals

Teams in the Market for a Wide Receiver: Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Panthers, Bengals, Lions, Redskins, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Jaguars, Patriots

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[SIZE=+1]Tight Ends[/SIZE]

Restricted Free Agents: Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Bo Scaife, Anthony Fasano, David Thomas, Jeff King

Though Daniels (ACL surgery) is threatening to hold out of training camp, his hands are tied. He'll be back in Houston. Expected to be tendered by the Titans despite his high price tag, Scaife will have to hold off the raw but talented Jared Cook. Fasano will be back in Miami, but his value is negligible. Thomas' best fantasy bet remains New Orleans, though he needs a Jeremy Shockey injury for weekly consideration.

Unrestricted Free Agents:

Ben Watson: Once a promising pass-catcher, Watson tallied a career-high 645 yards and a tenth-place fantasy finish in 2006 before the Pats grew wary of his come-and-go hands. Now 29 and possessing solid blocking skills to go with above-average athletic ability, Watson stands to benefit from a change of scenery. In the right offense, he could conceivably regain high-end TE2 value.

Prediction: Chiefs

Injury-Prone Veterans: Randy McMichael, L.J. Smith, David Martin, Billy Miller

All four of the above can catch the ball, but they offer nothing in the way of blocking ability or durability. Though any of the four could pop up on fantasy waiver wires in 2010, there's just as much of a chance that they'll be out of the league. Despite missing the 2009 season with a torn Achille's tendon, Profootballfocus.com named Miller their "diamond in the rough" in this year's free agent class. I wouldn't hold my breath.

Fantasy Afterthoughts: Brandon Manumaleuna, Alge Crumpler, Alex Smith, Ben Hartsock, Leonard Pope

Trade Candidates:

Tony Scheffler: Though he was extended a low tender offer, no team is going to part with a second-round pick to sign Scheffler. The Broncos literally have no use for him, so he should be available on the cheap – possibly for a fourth-round pick and change. With their West Coast offense, the Rams make for a nice fit. As we've seen with Vernon Davis, a system change can make the difference between a fantasy afterthought and a weekly asset. Scheffler has the talent to post borderline TE1 numbers in a new offense next season.

Prediction: Rams

Greg Olsen: Trade rumors, quite possibly started by Olsen and his agent, have been flying around since the weekend. Olsen understands that his role will shrink under Mike Martz, and the Bears could also learn a lesson from the Broncos about the diminishing trade value of an under-utilized tight end. If the Pats were willing to part with one of their three second-round picks, Olsen will give them opportunity to put the tight end back into their own offense (Again, see Ben Watson's 2006 season).

Prediction: Patriots

Teams in the Market for a Tight End: St. Louis, Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, Kansas City, Carolina, Cleveland, Arizona, Denver

 

[HacheMan]

Free Agency Fallout

There's no such thing as breaking even in this world. You're either getting better or you're falling behind. With that in mind, here are fantasy's top-5 winners and top-5 losers from the first five days of free agency:

THE WINNERS
1. Steve Breaston, Cardinals: Now that Anquan Boldin is in Baltimore, Breaston will be lining up across from Larry Fitzgerald in 2010. It's traditionally a high production spot, whether or not the oft-injured Boldin was in there. For example, when "Q" missed last season's Wild Card game against the Packers, Breaston went off for 125 yards and a score. In Week 6 of 2008, Boldin was out and Breaston had eight catches, 102 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys.

Keep in mind that the overriding thought with any Cardinal player's outlook should be "Kurt Warner is retired." The Cardinals figure to feature a more run-heavy scheme while protecting Leinart. That said, look for Leinart to outperform expectations with an entire offseason to prepare as the starter, even if Derek Anderson comes aboard. Breaston is a WR3 with upside.

2. Darren McFadden, Raiders: Justin Fargas was a tough as nails runner that consistently exposed McFadden's inability to break tackles and run inside. With Fargas being released on Saturday, the Raiders appear ready to make this a "now or never" kind of campaign for McFadden.

But before we get too excited, keep in mind that McFadden has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in his career. Also, the Raiders could still bring in a third back. And perhaps most importantly, the Raiders have shown a hesitancy to let McFadden carry the load. Justin Fargas was inactive for four games in 2009. Here is the touch split in those games between McFadden and Michael Bush:

Week 1: McFadden 19, Bush 13
Week 2: McFadden 14, Bush 10
Week 16: McFadden 11, Bush 11
Week 17: Bush 11, McFadden 5

McFadden's numbers in those four games totaled 41 carries for 131 yards, 1 TD and eight catches for 100 yards. Projected over 16 games, we'd be looking at 524 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

There's potential here, but McFadden could very well be overrated come draft day.

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions: The Nate Burleson signing is going to do more for Megatron than it will for Burleson. Although Nate is nothing special, he's good enough to keep the triple teams off of Johnson. If the Lions can solidify their offensive line (Russell Okung?), Matt Stafford will take a step forward and Johnson will be a solid bounce-back candidate.

4. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: Peterson caught 19 passes as a rookie, 21 in 2008 and 43 last season. Thanks to Chester Taylor signing with the hated Bears on Friday, that number figures to rise. Yes, the Vikings will bring in a third-down back (Brian Westbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson?), but Peterson will still see some passing down reps. Taylor caught 44 passes last season and if "All Day" continues to work on his hands, he could approach 55 catches in 2010. PPR leaguers need to take notice.

5. Clinton Portis, Redskins: The Redskins' house-cleaning has left Portis as the only running back on the roster. Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright, Marcus Mason and Quinton Ganther are all gone. That will change by Week 1, but Portis has a stranglehold on the carries in a Mike Shanahan offense. He's slipping down the cliff badly, so perhaps this sense of responsibility will renew his work ethic and dedication to being at least an average NFL back.

Just missed: Early Doucet will be the Cardinals' No. 3 receiver, but that's not like being the No. 3 receiver in Cardinals offenses of old. Again, we expect more power football, two-wide sets out of Arizona with Leinart in there. … Michael Bush will play behind McFadden, but he's a better inside runner. He'll get 10-12 touches a game while picking up slack for Fargas. … Matt Moore has the starting QB job locked up. He's talented, but the Panthers are a run-first team without a pass-catching tight end or serviceable No. 2 receiver right now.
THE LOSERS
1. Matt Forte:</B> I believe that Forte is a better player than the newly signed Chester Taylor. But he's going to have to prove it, and even that might not be enough. Taylor signed a four-year contract worth $12.5 million, including $7 million in guaranteed money. He's not coming to touch the ball on third downs only. It's a shame, because a healthy Forte would have been a nice fit in Mike Martz's offense.

Both backs will get their chances and it could very well shake out as a series-by-series rotation. It's a devastating blow to Forte, who was taken No. 3 or 4 overall in most drafts last season. Now, he's looking more like a flex play.

2. Jamaal Charles: Short-term production is simply not enough these days when you're a smallish back. Over the final eight games of the season, Jamaal Charles ran for 968 yards with seven touchdowns and threw in 23 catches for 158 yards and another score. Projected over 16 games, that's 2,252 total yards and 16 touchdowns.

So how did the Chiefs reward Charles? By signing Thomas Jones on Tuesday. The same story can be told about Jerome Harrison in Cleveland. But if you're big like Shonn Greene, the bosses will ride you into the ground. Even if you stink like Jamal Lewis did during the last couple years.

Charles isn't completely crushed here. Jones will technically be the backup, but look for Charles to lose the goal-line work. Beat writer Kent Babb is already speculating that Charles will get 65 percent of the carries vs. 35 for Jones. The bottom line is that Charles now goes from a potential first-round pick in redraft leagues to a RB2.

3. Jacoby Jones: Kevin Walter was a big disappointment last season, catching just 53 balls for 611 yards and two scores in 14 games. Apparently, the Texans weren't that unhappy with him because they re-signed him as an unrestricted free agent to a five-year, $21 million contract that includes $8 million in guarantees.

It's a direct slap in the face to Jacoby Jones, who the Texans clearly don't trust no matter what Gary Kubiak says. Jones was poised to be that talented youngster with upside starting across from Andre Johnson in an explosive offense. Now he's relegated to the bench while Walter's mediocrity continues. The outlook for one of the early sleepers for 2010 is already wounded badly.

4. Jared Cook: The dynasty league favorite isn't going to get his big break this year. The Titans shockingly put a first-round tender on Bo Scaife and will pay him $4.908 million. Basically, Jeff Fisher is telling you that the talented Cook is not ready yet.

5. Derrick Mason:The Ravens are undergoing a complete overhaul with their receiving corps, and we don't even know if Mason will be a part of it next year. Right now, Boldin would be the No. 1, Mason the No. 2 and Donte Stallworth/Mark Clayton will fill in behind. We can be certain that if Mason does come back, he won't come anywhere near the 134 targets he saw last season.

 

[HacheMan]

Flacco Fever
The onset of free agency served as a useful reminder that I've yet to lay out a list of offseason "buys" for Dynasty leaguers this year. With the no-brainer trade for Anquan Boldin, the re-signing of Derrick Mason, and the addition of situational deep-threat Donte' Stallworth, it's time to get excited about the Ravens' passing game for the first time since the franchise's inaugural season in 1996. Throw in Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and a talented offensive line, and this unit is now Super Bowl caliber. In other words, it's high time to knock on the Joe Flacco owner's door.

But the Ravens will always be a run-first, defense-heavy team, right? Wrong. For the first time in over a decade, the balance of talent is tilted toward the offensive side of the roster. Philosophically, coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron have already moved to a more wide open offense. Last October, Cameron let loose with this gem: "Football has changed for the better. Just look at last year's Super Bowl. People have got to move beyond the notion that running the football leads to the championships. It doesn't."

While Flacco's late-season hip injury led to a pair of playoff flops, it's worth remembering that he stormed out of the gates as the sixth-ranked fantasy quarterback in the first six weeks of the season. Despite the injury-induced second-half slump, Flacco performed even better in his second year than he did in an impressive rookie season. Would you believe he posted a 95+ passer rating in 9-of-16 games this season while dramatically increasing his yards and touchdowns totals? It happened.

In fact, Flacco's 6,584 passing yards through two seasons are the fifth-most in NFL history behind only Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Drew Bledsoe, and Jeff Garcia. He also posted the highest passer rating, highest completion percentage and second-most completions in franchise history last season. Don't let the late-season injuries obscure the tremendous strikes he made as an elite young quarterback in his second season.

So if Joe Flacco is a top "buy" this offseason, who joins him? On to the list:

Steve Smith, Panthers – Is it too early to hail Matt Moore as the answer in Carolina? Sure, but his 104.9 QB passer rating in five starts last season suggests at the very least that he's not an unmitigated disaster under center. And that's all that matters when it comes to Smith.

From 2005-2008 Smith posted an incredible per-game average of 5.87 receptions, 93.65 yards, and 0.65 touchdowns with the pre-meltdown version of Jake Delhomme. Over that time period, his production only slipped in the 11 games started by the putrid troika of Chirs Weinke, David Carr, and the 44-year-old, off-the-couch version of Vinny Testaverde. In those 11 games, Smith plummeted to 4.8 receptions, 49.1 yards, and 0.18 touchdowns per game.

Our hero's production suffered again in 2009 with the fork-in-back version of Delhomme, limiting Smith to 4.18 receptions, 54.9, and 0.36 touchdowns. Now that looks a lot like the earlier damage done by the law firm of Weinke, Carr and Testaverde. But let's get down to the nitty-gritty. What are Smith's per-game averages in the seven starts he shared with a raw Matt Moore in 2007 and 2009? The line is almost identical to his 2005-2008 numbers: 5.86 receptions, 90.7 yards, and 0.57 touchdowns.

Though small sample size is an obvious caveat, Smith has consistently produced close to six receptions, 90-95 yards, and 0.6-0.75 touchdowns when he receives the bare minimum of competence from his quarterback. The early returns suggest Moore meets the bare minimum requirement.

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Calvin Johnson, Lions – As the only receiver in the league triple covered last season, Johnson is the other big winner in free agency. The addition of a legitimate No. 2 receiver such as Nate Burleson finally gives the Lions an "eraser" to drag some of the extra coverage away from Johnson. Coming off a late-season catastrophe brought on by the confluence of a knee injury and the poor play of Duante Culpepper and Drew Stanton, Johnson remains the top Dynasty buy of the offseason. Go get him.

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Despite a second-half slump and two missed games, Ryan still managed to throw for six more touchdowns and 17 more attempts than he did in his impressive rookie season. Though Mike Mularkey began opening up the aerial attack, expectations were so high that Ryan's progress actually seemed like a disappointment. This offseason is your last chance to buy before he reaches stud status.

Greg Jennings, Packers - Though he's no slouch himself, Jennings is poised to ride Aaron Rodgers' coat-tails for the next 6-8 years as the number one receiver in a high-scoring offense. It was just a year ago that he was considered a possible top-five Dynasty receiver. Now is the perfect time to buy low and go along for the ride over the next half-decade.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals - Fitz's per-game numbers with Kurt Warner: 6.3 receptions, 83.8 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns. Fitz's per-game numbers with Matt Leinart: 5.7 receptions, 76.7 yards, 0.4 touchcowns. Fitz's per-game numbers since 2005 with Anquan Boldin out of the lineup: 7.0, 105.5, 1.0. It's time to pry him loose while the Chicken Littles are decrying the loss of Warner.

Michael Turner, Falcons - If you throw out the two post-injury games where he tried to play and had to come out early in the game, Burner averaged 92.3 rushing yards and 1.1 touchdowns per game at 5.0 yards per carry last season. His 2008 averages: 106.2 rushing yards and 1.06 touchdowns per game at 4.5 yards per carry. Forget that "curse of 370" nonsense. He's still the same back, and the second-half sprained ankle was in no way related to the previous year's high carry total.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs - Thomas Jones caps his 2010 fantasy ceiling in the same way that LenDale White capped Chris Johnson's in 2008. A 32-year-old back that faded severely down the stretch won't change Charles' long-term outlook, however, and he remains a top-ten Dynasty running back and the focal point of his offense. It's time to capitalize on the Jones signing.

Jay Cutler, Bears - The Mike Martz effect will boost his fantasy numbers even if it can't turn him into a top-flight NFL quarterback.

Santonio Holmes, Steelers - As Hines Ward enters his twilight years, Holmes keeps making incremental improvements.

Zach Miller, Raiders – Of the top 15 Dynasty tight ends, only two will enter the 2010 season under 25 years of age: Miller and Jermichael Finley.

 

[HacheMan]

NFL Mock Draft 3.0
While we're still waiting for Jimmy Clausen to prove he's recovered from toe surgery on April 9, the heart of Pro Day season ended last week. Dez Bryant disappointed, Colt McCoy drew mixed reviews, and Sam Bradford solidified himself as the No. 1 overall pick.

Draft misinformation season will get into full swing over the next three weeks, but we're beginning to feel confident that the top-five picks will go as predicted here. Barring trades, the top defensive tackles will go second and third. Elite offensive linemen are likely to go off the board quickly. A run on cornerbacks figures to occur in the mid-teens to early-20s.

With just 20 days before the 2010 NFL Draft, here is our third mock of the offseason:

1. St. Louis Rams - Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford

A Redskins trade up into the No. 1 spot is a growing possibility, and figures to gain steam as April 22 approaches. We're not bold enough to predict trades, however, and Bradford is presently Rams G.M. Billy Devaney's intended target.

2. Detroit Lions - Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh

With both Suh and Russell Okung bound to be available, draft-day debate is inevitable in Detroit's green room. Protecting 2008 No. 1 pick Matthew Stafford should be a priority in the early rounds, but Suh offers too much value for Lions G.M. Martin Mayhew to pass.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy

The Bucs would likely prefer Suh's superior run-stopping ability, but McCoy will suffice as a consensus top-three player in the draft. He'd provide an immediate upgrade over incumbent three-technique tackle Ryan Sims, who managed one sack in 16 games last season.

4. Washington Redskins - Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung

The Redskins' lone offensive line addition so far has been 31-year-old journeyman Artis Hicks, who is projected to play right guard. Stephon Heyer would be Washington's left tackle if the season began today, so Mike Shanahan would be smart to draft the best pass protector available.

5. Kansas City Chiefs - Iowa OT Bryan Bulaga

Coming from Kirk Ferentz's pro-style system, Bulaga's NFL-ready skill set will appeal to the Chiefs as Matt Cassel enters a make-or-break year. He's due a $7.5 million option bonus in 2011, and G.M. Scott Pioli owes Cassel a chance to succeed with the best supporting cast possible.

6. Seattle Seahawks - Rutgers OT Anthony Davis

C.J. Spiller is also believed to be on Seattle's radar at No. 6, but left tackle is easily Pete Carroll's biggest need on either side of the ball, thanks to ex-G.M. Tim Ruskell's misdoings. Though Davis' offseason has not been stellar, his game tape speaks for itself.

7. Cleveland Browns - Tennessee S Eric Berry

Dez Bryant might have been a consideration for president Mike Holmgren's club had he delivered a strong Pro Day. Bryant didn't, so the Browns can solidify their secondary with one of the surest prospects in this year's draft class.

8. Oakland Raiders - Oklahoma OT Trent Williams

In order for likely new quarterback Donovan McNabb to perform at a high level, the oft-injured 33-year-old will need protection. Williams is a bit of a 'tweener left/right tackle, but he's ready to start on the strong side in year one, and owner Al Davis will love his measurables.

9. Buffalo Bills - Tennessee DT Dan Williams

Buffalo's installation of a 3-4 defense won't work without a two-gapping nose tackle to clog the middle and keep offensive guards from taking Paul Posluszny and Andra Davis out of plays. Williams has Vince Wilfork-type potential at 6'2/330 with plenty of quicks and power.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan

The Jags' arguably ill-advised signing of Aaron Kampman shouldn't prevent them from taking another pass rusher early after finishing dead last in sack differential. Kampman is recovering from a torn ACL and Jacksonville's other end, Derrick Harvey, provides next to nothing as a pocket pusher.

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11. Denver Broncos - Alabama LB Rolando McClain

The Broncos have used the offseason to upgrade a front seven that collapsed to embarrassing levels during last year's second half, and should keep at it. Mario Haggan is currently slated to start at "Ted" linebacker, but McClain is much better in coverage with more play-making ability.

12. Miami Dolphins - Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant

Earl Thomas and Jason Pierre-Paul should be on G.M. Jeff Ireland's radar, but Bryant would fill a glaring need in addition to being the best player available. Bryant would replace Ted Ginn Jr. at split end, with Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, and Greg Camarillo fighting for scraps at flanker and slot receiver.

13. San Francisco 49ers - Florida CB Joe Haden

Haden vaulted his stock back into the top-15 range with a forty time in the mid-4.4s at the Gators' March 17 Pro Day. He would be an immediate starter opposite Shawntae Spencer in San Francisco, allowing Nate Clements to convert to safety and Tarell Brown to stay at nickel back.

14. Seattle Seahawks - Boise State CB Kyle Wilson

Perhaps the draft's most NFL-ready corner as a four-year starter with the ability to play both zone and man coverage, Wilson won't get out of the top-19 picks. Currently, the Seahawks' only surefire starter in the secondary is CB Marcus Trufant, who's coming off an awful season.

15. New York Giants - Idaho OG Mike Iupati

The Giants have a better roster than any team that went .500 or worse in 2009, but their front five declined sharply. Iupati's addition would deservedly push LG Rich Seubert to the bench with William Beatty taking over at left tackle and David Diehl replacing Kareem McKenzie on the right.

16. Tennessee Titans - South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul

The consensus among evaluators at the Combine and Pierre-Paul's Pro Day was that his best position is end in a 4-3. He offers outrageous upside at 6'5/270 with 4.6 speed and a mammoth wingspan, and the Titans don't have a viable in-house replacement for Kyle Vanden Bosch.

17. San Francisco 49ers - Clemson RB C.J. Spiller

Spiller deserves to go earlier, but top-15 selections are rarely used on tailbacks, let alone those that don't project to be every-down, 300-carry runners. Spiller would upgrade San Francisco's return units tremendously, and de facto G.M. Trent Baalke has publicly spoken of drafting him.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Alabama CB Kareem Jackson

Jackson was overshadowed by Javier Arenas in Nick Saban's 3-4 defense, but started all three years and ran in the mid- to low-4.4s at the Scouting Combine. Jackson is squarely on the first-round radar, and Pittsburgh's biggest weakness is at cornerback.

19. Atlanta Falcons - Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon

The Falcons weren't pleased with Stephen Nicholas' play on the strong side last year, and weak-side 'backer Mike Peterson turns 34 in a couple of months. A tackle machine and proven play-maker, Weatherspoon would be an upgrade over either adjacent to Curtis Lofton.

20. Houston Texans - Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews

Mathews' incredible combination of size, speed, balance, and power compares favorably to that of any running back in the draft. With tons of experience running behind zone blocks under Bulldogs coach Pat Hill, Mathews would also have a smooth transition into Gary Kubiak's scheme.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Texas S Earl Thomas

The Bengals are high on Taylor Mays, but a safety of Thomas' caliber will be more difficult to pass on if he falls out of the top 20. Thomas is superior to Mays in terms of ball skills, range, hip fluidity, and man-to-man cover ability.

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22. New England Patriots - Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas

Not only do the Pats need receiver help this year, but Randy Moss is 33 years old, entering a contract season, and doesn't expect to re-sign with New England. Thomas, who averaged 25.1 yards per catch last year, is perhaps this draft's most dangerous vertical threat.

23. Green Bay Packers - USC OT Charles Brown

G.M. Ted Thompson did well to re-sign Chad Clifton last month, but the longtime Packers left tackle turns 34 before the season and is highly unlikely to hold up for 16 games. Brown fits the mold of a Green Bay lineman with long arms and ideal athleticism for zone blocking.

24. Philadelphia Eagles - Florida State CB Patrick Robinson

Philadelphia was highly dissatisfied with its 2009 secondary play, so much so that starting CBs Sheldon Brown and Asante Samuel have both been made available for trade. With Brown now officially in Cleveland, Robinson would at least push for playing time in the nickel package, and perhaps start over Ellis Hobbs if he comes along quickly.

25. Baltimore Ravens - Penn State DE Jared Odrick

New addition Cory Redding was initially billed as a likely starter in Baltimore, but the injury-prone underachiever would be better suited to coming off the bench. Odrick, the 2009 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, has a better chance to make an impact as a two-gapping, five-technique end with the ability to collapse the pocket.

26. Arizona Cardinals - Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham

The Cards figure to consider Sergio Kindle and Brandon Graham, but the former doesn't display ideal initial burst, and the latter is on the squatty side for a 3-4 edge rusher. With Arizona moving to a more run-oriented offense, a tight end like Gresham with in-line blocking experience and pro-ready pass-catching skills is needed.

27. Dallas Cowboys - Florida DE Carlos Dunlap

The Cowboys assigned a mere original pick tender to restricted free agent Marcus Spears, confirming that they're not especially thrilled with the middling former first-rounder's performance. Dunlap needs a kick in the rear from time to time, but projects as a far superior pass rusher.

28. San Diego Chargers - Alabama DT Terrence Cody

San Diego's most glaring need is at tailback, but G.M. A.J. Smith is unlikely to deem one worthy of this pick barring an unexpected slide by Spiller or Mathews. Nose tackle is next up on the Bolts' list of weaknesses, and Cody is a monster in the middle at 6'4/350.

29. New York Jets - Texas DE Sergio Kindle

Kindle's times in the ten-yard split (1.65, 1.70) leave something to be desired, but his versatility will particularly appeal to hybrid defensive teams like the Jets. Kindle was productive throughout his career and has experience at defensive end, multiple linebacker positions, and on special teams.

30. Minnesota Vikings - Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen

We're holding firm to our prediction that Clausen – deservedly, or undeservedly -- is in for a draft-day slide. Minnesota would be an ideal situation if he does last until the 30s, however, as a year on the bench behind Brett Favre would humble Clausen and set him up to take over in 2011.

31. Indianapolis Colts - Michigan DE Brandon Graham

Unlike teams that use the 3-4 defense, the Colts are bigger on production than measurables when it comes to pass rushers. Graham's short arms and sub-6'2" height won't turn off club president Bill Polian, who witnessed in the Super Bowl how thin his team is becoming at defensive end.

32. New Orleans Saints - USC DE Everson Griffen

Griffen is being criticized as a workout wonder after managing just eight sacks in 2009 before dominating drills at the Combine and his Pro Day. However, Griffen did pace USC in the statistic, and last year's 9-4 Trojans failed to generate as many pass-rushing opportunities as usual.

Just Missed: TCU DE Jerry Hughes, UCLA DT Brian Price, Rutgers CB Devin McCourty, USC S Taylor Mays, Notre Dame WR Golden Tate, Virginia CB Chris Cook, Florida C Maurkice Pouncey, Northwestern DE Corey Wootton, Cal RB Jahvid Best, TCU LB Daryl Washington, Illinois WR Arrelious Benn, UMass OT Vladimir Ducasse, Iowa CB Amari Spievey, USC WR Damian Williams, Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, Clemson DE Ricky Sapp, Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski, LSU S Chad Jones, Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard, Florida TE Aaron Hernandez, Texas QB Colt McCoy

 

[HacheMan]

McNabb a game-changer for Redskins, not in fantasy


New coach Mike Shanahan finally put his stamp on the Redskins' offense, trading for veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb to replace Jason Campbell in the NFL offseason's biggest move thus far.
Headed into his 12th season, McNabb remains a perfectly competent player and likely a significant upgrade from Campbell. But don't assume that the McNabb-Shanahan pairing suddenly will make for beautiful fantasy music. While McNabb should push the Redskins' passing game back into fantasy relevance (and he could keep winning), he will not be a top 10 fantasy quarterback.
Simply look at his history. McNabb has two seasons of at least 25 TD passes in his career, 25 in 2001 and 31 in 2004 with Terrell Owens. And 25 TD passes has become the new benchmark among fantasy QBs; 12 threw at least 26 last season. The rest of McNabb's seasons are a bunch of 19, 21, 22 TD years. Perfectly reasonable numbers, but hardly earth-shattering.
McNabb also will not have a great crew of receivers -- not that he did very often in Philadelphia either. Santana Moss should enjoy having a competent thrower and could pile up a bunch of catches. Devin Thomas started to show some positive signs at the end of last season, while tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis might be the happiest pair in this deal. McNabb made frequent, albeit inconsistent, use of his tight ends in Philadelphia, while Shanahan's offense also stresses the tight end.
Do not overlook McNabb's injury history, either. He has played 16 games once in the past five years. Although he tore an ACL in 2005, most of the injuries are relatively minor, but count on him missing at least a game or two. Plus, McNabb's relative inaccuracy could frustrate Shanahan. McNabb is a career 59% passer and completed 60.3% of his throws last year. In another time, that would be noteworthy. Last year, 60.3% was good for 20th in the league - and about 4% worse than Campbell.
At this point in his career, McNabb will not significantly change his stripes, regardless of his coach. Expect another season of TDs in the low 20s and interceptions around 10, and that is not going to change the dynamics of your league as much as it will the tone of the NFC East. -- Matt Pitzer

 

[HacheMan]

Charlie in Charge?
In a previous blog post I was asked my thoughts on the Charlie Whitehurst trade and what it means for his Dynasty value. Specifically, how should he be valued versus incoming rookies Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen?

Any examination of Whitehurst has to start with his preseason stats because he has no regular season passing experience whatsoever. Through four years in the league, he's been unable to leapfrog Billy Volek as the primary backup in San Diego. His NFL game is truly terra incognita right now.

About those preseason numbers? They're ugly. In 14 games Whitehurst has completed just 52.8 percent of his passes at 5.2 yards per attempt, a 5:7 TD-to-INT ratio, six fumbles (three in one game) and a 61.5 passer rating. If you're looking for a silver lining, Whitehurst did show modest improvement in 2009, upping the numbers to 56.7 percent, 6.4 yards per attempt and a 2:2 TD-to-INT ratio.

For comparison's sake, let's take a look at the pre-season numbers of Aaron Rodgers and Kevin Kolb before they ascended to starting jobs. Unfortunately, NFL.com does not carry preseason data before 2006, so Rodgers' first season is missing. In his next two years, Rogers completed 60.7 percent of his passes at 7.3 yards per attempt, a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and a passer rating near 100. Kolb completed the same 60.7 percent of his passes at 5.8 yards per attempt with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and a passer rating in the mid 80s.

Preseason data isn't available for Matt Schaub's Atlanta years, but we do know that he completed 52.2 percent of his passes at 6.4 yards per attempt with a 6:6 TD-to-INT in a handful of regular season starts with the Falcons.

Whitehurst's preseason stats pale in comparison to those of Rodgers and Kolb, and Schaub outperformed him while playing against superior defenses. In short, Whitehurst's numbers inspire little confidence that he's ready to take over an NFL offense.

Is it all negative for Whitehurst, though? The Cardinals and Seahawks both pursued him in a bidding war this offseason, so the two teams obviously saw something they liked on film. Whitehurst has ideal size (6'5/220), good bloodlines (his father David was an NFL QB with the Packers and Chiefs from 1977-84), and a pro arm. Seahawks GM John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll both liked him at Clemson and have spoken highly of his intangibles, "swagger," and work ethic.

For a refresher on Whitehurst's pre-draft scouting report, he threw better than any quarterback at the 2006 NFL Combine not named Jay Cutler (and actually outplayed Cutler at the Senior Bowl). He ran a forty in the mid 4.7s, showing above average speed and athleticism to go with his NFL arm. The bottom line was the same then as it is now: an enigma with plenty of talent lacking in consistency.

Whitehurst's two-year, $8-$10 million contract all but guarantees that he's the starter of the future -- possibly as soon as mid-season in 2010. While Schneider and Carroll have staked their futures to the unproven quarterback, Chargers GM A.J. Smith reacted like "the cat who ate the canary" after exchanging 2010 second-round picks with the Seahawks and picking up a third-round pick in 2011.

"We just fell into it," Smith said of landing a relative windfall for his third-string quarterback. "I presented a package to them that I thought was attractive to us, and it's accepted. They wanted the player. And that's how it went down." As SI.com's Don Banks pointed out: "It feels like the words 'lo and behold' should be in that quote somewhere, but I checked, and they're not." When Banks informed Smith that he seemed to have gotten the better end of the deal, the Chargers GM smugly laughed and replied, "Your words, not mine."

Smith has seen Whitehurst up close and personal for four years. In this circumstance, I trust his judgment over that of Schneider of Carroll, who have seen him in limited action on film. Frankly, it's hard for me to get excited about the Charlie Whitehurst era in Seattle.

Fantasy-wise, Whitehurst's potential is extremely limited the next two seasons even if he plays beyond his underwhelming preseason stats. His offensive line is well below average, and his best weapon is an aging possession receiver with little playmaking ability. He comes in at No. 28 in my latest Dynasty rankings, sandwiched between Alex Smith and Kyle Orton -- two unreliable quarterbacks with job security issues beyond 2010. For comparison's sake, Sam Bradford will likely debut in the No. 17-20 area while Clausen's is unlikely to break the mid-to-late 20s, pending his NFL landing spot.

 

[HacheMan]

Sky falling on Fitzgerald?
I was strolling through the Fantasy Football Librarian's blog late last week when I noticed the escalation of an offseason trend: the sky is falling on Larry Fitzgerald.

ESPN's Matthew Berry dropped Fitzgerald all the way down to eighth among receivers, also placing him behind committee backs Pierre Thomas and Shonn Greene in his "way-to-early" preseason Top 100. The folks at fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com continued the hand-wringing, citing the losses of Kurt Warner and even Anquan Boldin as obstacles to overcome.

Let's dispatch with the Boldin concerns right out of the gate. Fitzgerald has always been the "match-up busting" receiver torching the league's best cornerbacks while Boldin feasted on lesser corners, safeties, linebackers, and zone defenses.

Fitzgerald's career per-game stats without Boldin in the lineup are 6.1 receptions, 90.1 yards, and 0.8 TDs. Since 2005, those numbers jump to 7.0 receptions, 105.5 yards, and 1.0 TDs. Compare that eye-popping production to his 5.6 receptions, 73.8 yards, and 0.6 TDs with Boldin in the lineup. Far from a reason for exercising caution, Boldin's exit is actually ideal for Fitzgerald's fantasy production.

Warner is stickier. Fitzgerald has traditionally fared better under Warner, posting per-game stats of 6.3 receptions, 83.8 yards, and 0.7 TDs versus 5.7 receptions, 76.7 yards, and 0.4 TDs with Matt Leinart. Parenthetically, his per-game numbers in two games with Leinart and without Boldin: 9.5 receptions, 128 yards, and 0.5 TDs.

What do all of the numbers tell us? Fitzgerald sees a slight dropoff under Leinart, with a rough projection of 91 receptions, 1,227 yards, and six TDs. On the other hand, Boldin's departure leaves him with a projection of 98 receptions and 1,442 yards, and 13 TDs. There's a small sample size caveat with the Boldin numbers, but we're still talking about 90-95 receptions, roughly 1,300 yards, and 8+ TDs. In other words, a typical Fitzgerald season.

There's one more important factor being swept under the rug in all of the "Chicken Little" talk surrounding Fitzgerald this offseason: Warner actually hurt Fitzgerald's reception and yardage numbers last year.

Our early-season game charters noted that Warner exhibited a "startling lack of arm strength and accuracy," unwilling to throw the ball deeper than 15-20 yards. The Cardinals' aerial attack featured dumpoffs to Tim Hightower and Anquan Boldin while Fitzgerald's downfield playmaking ability went to waste. If you'll recall, Fitz's brother went on a Twitter rant against the "old ass man" under center because Warner wasn't looking enough to his best receiver.

Coming off hip surgery and a Week 1 re-aggravation of a right-shoulder injury, it was understandable that Warner was hesitant to throw beyond 15-20 yards. We just didn't know at the time how much confidence Warner had lost in his arm. Quarterbacks coach Chris Miller recently acknowledged our assessments that Warner "wasn't comfortable going downfield" until later in the season.

The bottom line is that Fitzgerald lost 339 yards and nearly four yards per reception off his 2008 totals last season. While a December MCL sprain can't be overlooked, Warner's change in playing style -- and the resulting lack of big plays -- was at the heart of the considerable decline in yards. In other words, Fitzgerald's 13 TDs covered up for a quarterback that was killing his production.

Andre Johnson ascends to the No. 1 spot this year after leading the league in yards for two straight seasons while also enjoying the stability of a top-flight quarterback in a high-scoring offense. After that, though, Fitzgerald remains in the conversation for the second receiver to go off the board. He remains arguably the best player at his position in the NFL, and his is quarterback isn't going to sabotage his receiving numbers any more than last year's did.

 

[HacheMan]

Needs: NFC West & South
Arizona Cardinals

1. LB: 33-year-old outside linebackers Joey Porter and Clark Haggans are admittedly stopgap solutions, but the Cards' most pressing need is inside. The team lost play-making Ted linebacker Karlos Dansby in free agency, and lackluster veteran Paris Lenon is next in line for snaps adjacent to Mike 'backer Gerald Hayes.

2. OT: The Cardinals are moving inconsistent former No. 5 overall pick Levi Brown to left tackle, creating a hole on southpaw quarterback Matt Leinart's blind side. Incumbent Mike Gandy has not been re-signed in free agency, leaving journeyman Jeremy Bridges and 2008 seventh-round pick Brandon Keith as Arizona's top options to date.

3. CB: Ken Whisenhunt's team avoided disaster when Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's postseason knee injury proved minor, but Arizona still lacks a quality No. 2 corner. Bryant McFadden is better suited to play nickel back, and 2009 small-school project Greg Toler couldn't even beat out special teamer Michael Adams last year.

4. TE: The Cardinals will be more balanced on offense with Leinart under center, so they could use an every-down tight end capable of contributing in both the passing and running games. The tight ends currently on Arizona's roster are all one-dimensional and/or injury prone.

San Francisco 49ers

1. OT: The Niners got surprisingly potent play from Barry Sims when left tackle Joe Staley went down last year, but can't count on the 35-year-old keeping it up. With Adam Snyder better cutout to play guard, a mauling right tackle is needed for Mike Singletary to execute his ball-control offense.

2. CB: The Niners were unsatisfied with Nate Clements' play in coverage last year, and Tarell Brown didn't prove an upgrade when given the chance to start down the stretch. A Kyle Wilson or Joe Haden type to book end Shawntae Spencer could go a long way toward solving the Niners' pass defense woes.

3. LB: The team's sack total was good, but San Francisco didn't have a single player top 6.5 quarterback takedowns last season. High-motor rushers in the Singletary mold like Sergio Kindle of Texas and Brandon Graham of Michigan should be on the radar if available at No. 17.

4. S: Thumping strong safety Michael Lewis remains an efficient tackler, but recurring concussions may threaten his career, and he's never excelled against the pass. Moving Clements to safety is a possibility, though he may just as easily be released with a $6 million salary pending.

Seattle Seahawks

1. OT: Old G.M. Tim Ruskell played with fire (and got burned) by picking a linebacker ahead of Walter Jones' replacement in last year's top five. Musical chairs ensued at left tackle, followed by inevitable injuries to Seattle's quarterbacks. Pete Carroll mustn't wait to solidify the position.

2. DB: The Seahawks' lone bona fide starting defensive back is corner Marcus Trufant, who was lit up in his 2009 return from back surgery. With a gaping hole at strong safety, Eric Berry of Tennessee is sure to be appealing with the No. 6 overall pick.

3. DE: Patrick Kerney's retirement leaves disappointing former first-rounder Lawrence Jackson as the Seahawks' top end. After him, the depth chart is rounded out by Nick Reed, Chris Clemons, Robert Henderson, and perhaps former CFL linebacker/special teams prospect Ricky Foley.

4. RB: New Seahawks line coach Alex Gibbs has a history of turning garbage into gold at the tailback spot, but no one on the current roster resembles a long-term solution. Seattle has been heavily linked to Clemson's C.J. Spiller, while Ryan Mathews is a sleeper to be Carroll's pick at No. 14.

St. Louis Rams

1. QB: A.J. Feeley, Keith Null, and Mike Reilly are the Rams' only quarterbacks signed for 2010. Feeley knows the offense but has never been consistently effective, and Null was thoroughly overmatched in four 2009 spot starts. Sam Bradford will be St. Louis' quarterback of the future.

2. OG: With Richie Incognito gone, Mark Setterstrom always injured, Jacob Bell no better than "just a guy," and 2008 third-round pick John Greco not panning out, the Rams need reinforcements at both guard positions.

3. DE: Chris Long should come into his own any time now, but 33-year-old James Hall would be the starter opposite him if the Rams' season began today. In order for coach Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy scheme to work, he needs more than just a few pass rushers.

4. RB: It's about time the Rams got serious about finding a reliable backup and/or complement for Steven Jackson. The workhorse is hard to take off the field because he's so productive in all facets, but Jackson has played just one 16-game season in his career while battling numerous nagging injuries over the past three years.

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Atlanta Falcons

1. LB: The Falcons were gashed by the run until late last season, and the problems start in the front seven. While Curtis Lofton is entrenched in the middle, the team could afford to upgrade over 34-year-old weak-side linebacker Mike Peterson, and strong-side starter Stephen Nicholas is in a contract year. Atlanta has shown significant interest in Sean Weatherspoon of Missouri.

2. CB: Atlanta forked over serious coin to secure top free agent corner Dunta Robinson, but remains unsettled at the position opposite him. Incumbent starter Brian Williams is coming off a torn ACL, Brent Grimes would be a dime back in a good secondary, and the Falcons don't envision 2009 third-round pick Christopher Owens as more than a sub-package player.

3. WR: Harry Douglas is expected to return after missing last season, but there's no telling how much speed he'll have left coming off a torn ACL. Speed-challenged split end Michael Jenkins also offers no play-making ability. The Falcons need a dynamic after-catch threat with vertical skills to execute coordinator Mike Mularkey's downfield passing attack.

4. DE: With 2.5 sacks in three seasons as a starter, former top-ten pick Jamaal Anderson is shaping up as a bust. Situational rushers Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury have promise, but aren't every-down ends. Pro Bowler John Abraham turns 32 in a month.

Carolina Panthers

1. WR: With former No. 45 overall pick Dwayne Jarrett continuing to fall short of expectations and Muhsin Muhammad all but done, it's time for the Panthers to give Steve Smith and new starting quarterback Matt Moore some help. Smith, 31 in May, isn't going to last forever, and Kenneth Moore would be Carolina's No. 3 receiver if the season began today.

2. DT: The Panthers have gone cheap on their defensive line, and it caught up to them last year when Ma'ake Kemoeatu was lost for the season with a torn Achilles' tendon. Some serious beef in the middle would at least take pressure off reserve types Louis Leonard, Tank Tyler, Ed Johnson, and Corvey Irvin.

3. CB: G.M. Marty Hurney's lowball tender for restricted free agent Richard Marshall hasn't backfired yet, but Marshall is only under control for 2010 and the team remains vulnerable at nickel back. The Panthers would be in a heap of trouble if Marshall or Chris Gamble got hurt.

4. QB: Moore and former undrafted free agent Hunter Cantwell make up the most unproven quarterback depth chart in the league. At the absolute minimum, the Panthers need to find a developmental passer to groom as Moore's long-term backup.

New Orleans Saints

1. LB: Scott Fujita's departure leaves former undrafted free agent JoLonn Dunbar atop the depth chart at strong-side linebacker, and Scott Shanle has been underwhelming on the weak side. The Saints may give Sean Weatherspoon of Missouri and Daryl Washington of TCU long looks with the No. 32 selection.

2. DE: Newly signed Alex Brown gives the Saints credibility at left defensive end, but Bobby McCray's chronic back problems leave room for an upgrade in the nickel rushing department. New Orleans needs youth at the position with Brown, McCray, and Will Smith all 29 or older.

3. S: Darren Sharper remains unsigned, and the Saints are in no rush to move Malcolm Jenkins from cornerback to free safety. Converted corner Usama Young has settled in as a core special teamer, but isn't a likely option to replace Sharper full time.

4. RB: Saints coach Sean Payton has done well to limit Pierre Thomas' workload, but values bruisers at tailback. The team very nearly traded up to acquire Chris Wells in last year's first round. A two-down thumper like Jonathan Dwyer of Georgia Tech could be an option with the 64th overall pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1. WR: The acquisition of Reggie Brown can't hurt arguably the league's weakest receiver corps, but he's not a great bet to make a difference in the passing game. Maurice Stovall and Michael Clayton also lack flash out wide. A field-stretching, big-play threat could help franchise quarterback Josh Freeman make the most of his cannon arm.

2. DT: Incumbent "three technique" starter Ryan Sims managed just one sack a year ago and was too easily washed out against the run. With the Bucs finishing dead last in rush defense, upgrading the interior defensive line needs to be a priority.

3. DE: None of the Buccaneers' ends have proven capable of playing effectively on all three downs. Greg White, or "Stylez G," is a fine situational player, but shouldn't top the depth chart like he does today. Luckily for Tampa Bay, this is a deep draft for pass rushers.

4. CB: Aqib Talib is emerging as a true shutdown cornerback, but 35-year-old Ronde Barber is falling off a cliff opposite him. It's hard to imagine E.J. Biggers, Elbert Mack, or Brandon Anderson emerging as a serious candidate to supplant Barber.

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2010: The Tight Ends
Similar to the 2010 wide receiver class, this year's group of draft-eligible tight ends may not produce more than one or two first-round picks. But the position is packed to the brim with depth. Rob Gronkowski, a surefire first-round talent, will likely be available on the draft's second day due to injury concerns. Another top-32 prospect based on ability alone, Jimmy Graham offers through-the-roof upside. Dennis Pitta, Dorin Dickerson, Aaron Hernandez, and Ed Dickson could stand to improve their blocking, but all four project as immediate help in the passing game.

The first round of this year's draft is expected to be dominated by defensive players. With only Jermaine Gresham certain to be off the board in the top-40 picks, we can expect the tight end run to begin in full force around the middle portion of round two.

Let's break down the top-15 players at the position.

[SIZE=+1]1. Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'5/261
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine #s 4.73 forty, 20 x 225, 35" vertical, 9'5" long jump
Style Comparison: Jermichael Finley
2008* Stats: 66 - 950 (14.4) - 14 Tds

Positives: Gresham is a silky smooth athlete with big, soft hands and the ability to go vertical. He posted a 14.7 career YPC average, constantly exploiting mismatches with defensive ends and linebackers as an oft-used slot receiver in OU's hybrid offense. Gresham caught 25 TD passes between his sophomore and junior seasons, and projects to remain a dominant red-zone force in the pros with an outstanding vertical jump and massive catch radius. He possesses the longest arms (34 3/4") of any draft-eligible tight end, and does not lack the frame to grow into an effective blocker eventually. Gresham is a character guy, and showed impressive resilience by turning in a strong, completely healthy offseason after sitting out all of 2009 due to a knee injury.

Negatives: Gresham's college career ended in early September of 2009 when he tore the meniscus in his right knee during fall practice. Surgeons discovered knee cartilage that needed to be stitched together, requiring five months of rest and rehab. Though unafraid to go over the middle, Gresham was otherwise not a physical college player, especially in the blocking department. He is considered to lack ideal suddenness in and out of his breaks, and didn't demonstrate elite top-end speed while running the forty-yard dash at February's Combine.

Outlook: 2009 top tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who also had college knee issues, ran a 4.87 forty at last year's Combine and was drafted 20th overall. Gresham isn't as skilled a blocker as Pettigrew, but he is a far superior play-maker. The Patriots (No. 22), Ravens (25), Cardinals (26), and Saints (32) will all give Gresham a long look if he gets by Cincinnati (21), as is likely.

[SIZE=+1]2. Rob Gronkowski, Arizona[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'6/258
College Experience: Third-year junior
Pro Day* #s: 4.69 forty, 23 x 225, 33.5" vertical, 9'11" long jump, 4.47 ss
Style Comparison: Todd Heap
2008* Stats: 47 - 672 (14.3) - 10 Tds

Positives: If not for a back injury that cost him all of 2009, Gronkowski might top this list. He is a terrifically well-rounded tight end, having learned to block in U of A's pro-style offense and execute with authority, in addition to being a downfield receiving weapon. "Gronk" was an instant impact collegiate, averaging 18.8 yards a catch with six scores as a true freshman. He made third-team All-American as a true sophomore and, by his third year, was far and away the Pac-10's premier tight end. An outstanding natural athlete, Gronkowski averaged 21 points and 18 rebounds per game as his Western New York high school's senior center. Gronkowski is a hard worker with an ideal build, glue-like hands, and especially excels as a pluck-and-run pass catcher.

Negatives: Gronkowski complained of back soreness throughout 2009 fall camp and, upon inspection, doctors discovered an abnormality. They performed a "microdiscectomy" to relieve pressure on Gronkowski's sciatic nerve by removing a portion of his spine. Rumors have ensued that Gronkowski suffers from "spinal stenosis," the same condition that prematurely ended perennial Redskins Pro Bowler Chris Samuels' career. Gronkowski also missed the first three games of his junior year with mononucleosis. He looked great during his individual Pro Day on March 27, but it took him nearly six months to get to 100 percent after the back operation.

Outlook: Injury concerns will impact Gronkowski's stock, but he offers Jason Witten-type upside as a complete, pro-ready tight end. That upside has prompted some respected draftniks to move him into the first round in recent mocks. We're still betting he's available for the annually tight end-deficient Rams at No. 33, but Gronkowski is unlikely to make it out of round two.

[SIZE=+1]3. Jimmy Graham, Miami (FL)[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'6/260
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.56 forty, 20 x 225, 38.5" vertical, 10' long jump
Style Comparison: Greg Olsen
2009 Stats: 17 - 213 (12.5) - 5 Tds

Positives: A former top-60 basketball recruit, Graham is the best natural athlete in this year's tight end class. He was a productive forward/center on the Canes' hoops team in his first four seasons, ranking as one of the top shot blockers in school history and making 40 starts. Graham possesses bigger hands (10 5/8") than any tight end in the draft and has the premier size-speed combo. Though his production was meager during his one year of college football, Graham did flash dominant red-zone skills (nearly 30% of his catches went for scores) and knows how to capitalize on his impressive leaping ability. He is a character guy with a strong work ethic.

Negatives: Graham obviously lacks experience, having played just one year of college football. He dabbled with the pigskin in high school, but basketball was his focus. Graham is considered to give good effort as a blocker and possesses the frame to become effective in that area, but has a long way to go to be an asset in the running game. Though he has natural ball skills as any former basketball player would, he dropped too many passes last season. Graham is not a polished route runner and is very unlikely to make an impact during his first NFL season.

Outlook: Graham will "redshirt" as a rookie as he learns the sport while adjusting to the speed and physicality of the NFL. The team that drafts him may not get any production until 2011. Graham's Tony Gonzalez-type upside, however, will get him drafted at some point in round two. Tight end coaches become offensive coordinators when they develop talents like Graham.

[SIZE=+1]4. Dennis Pitta, BYU[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'4/245
College Experience: Sixth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.63 forty, 27 x 225, 34.5" vertical, 9'5" long jump, 4.17 ss
Style Comparison: Brent Celek
2009 Stats: 62 - 829 (13.4) - 8 Tds

Positives: Pitta left college as Brigham Young's all-time leading receiver and the NCAA record holder in receiving yards by a tight end. An annual Academic All-Mountain West pick, Pitta is an intelligent player, and it shows on the field with his consistent ability to find soft spots in a zone. Incredibly sure handed, Pitta rarely drops catchable passes. He learned a variety of routes as both a slot receiver and wideout in BYU's offense. Billed as "soft" by some, Pitta is a physical runner after the catch and unafraid to lower his shoulder into defenders. He showed impressive strength on the Combine bench press, providing optimism that Pitta could improve his blocking.

Negatives: A sixth-year senior after taking a two-year Mormon mission, Pitta will be 25 as a rookie. Most other prospects are 22 or 23. Pitta was almost never asked to block in BYU's spread offense, even if he does possess the strength and physical nature to excel in the running game. He will struggle to earn playing time on early downs initially. Pitta is not an elusive runner or dynamic downfield threat, although his career average of 13.13 yards per catch is impressive.

Outlook: Pitta's "ceiling" may be limited by his age, but his combination of strength, frame, and willingness throw his body around points to likely improvement as a blocker. Though he may need a year to become more than a passing-down specialist, Pitta projects as an early-round pick and a superior prospect to Bengals TE Chase Coffman, who profiled somewhat similarly in 2009.

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[SIZE=+1]5. Dorin Dickerson, Pittsburgh[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'1/226
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.40 forty, 24 x 225, 43.5" vertical, 10'5" long jump, 4.30 ss
Style Comparison: Dustin Keller
2009 Stats: 49 - 529 (10.8) - 10 Tds

Positives: Used as a "move" tight end in Dave Wannstedt's two-TE attack, Dickerson was a matchup nightmare in the Big East. He ran circles around heavier, slower linebackers and posted up safeties and smaller cornerbacks in the red zone. Dickerson's ten TDs in 2009 set an all-time Pitt record. A converted wideout and onetime linebacker, Dickerson exhibited impressive versatility and unselfishness as a collegiate, and at the minimum projects as an NFL special teams dynamo. Capable of running 4.4-flat at 226 pounds, Dickerson could probably bulk up to 240 and maintain ideal speed, or even slim down to 210 and become a full-time wide receiver.

Negatives: If Dickerson is to play tight end at the next level, he'll have to add a significant amount of weight just to be able to deliver an effective "chip" at the line before beginning his route. Otherwise, he'll be a role player limited to contributions on obvious passing downs only. Though Dickerson earned first-team all-conference honors in 2009, it was his only year as a full-time tight end. Dickerson's low yards-per-catch average (10.8) also doesn't match his stopwatch speed.

Outlook: Dickerson, who lit up the Combine as the tight end leader in almost every drill, is a work in progress. Opinions differ wildly, with projections ranging from long-term special teamer to Dustin Keller. Creative offensive minds will see Dickerson as a mismatch creator from the slot and H-back positions. He could go as early as the late second round, or fall to the fifth.

[SIZE=+1]6. Aaron Hernandez, Florida[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'2/245
College Experience: Third-year junior
Pro Day #s: 4.60 forty, 30 x 225
Style Comparison: Tony Scheffler
2009 Stats: 68 - 850 (12.5) - 5 Tds

Positives/Negatives: The nation's top tight end recruit in '07, Hernandez met expectations by racking up 102 catches, including a team high 68, in his final two seasons. With Riley Cooper running "go" routes down the sideline, Hernandez mastered the slant as Tim Tebow's go-to guy underneath, and showed vertical ability himself with a tremendous first step and elite top-end speed. Hernandez is strong in the upper body and a "hands-catcher," rarely letting the ball into his pads. However, he did little to no blocking in Florida's spread offense, stands just 6-foot-2, and was never a dominant red-zone threat. Hernandez's character has been questioned, his arms are abnormally short (32"), and he sat out February's Combine due to a torn back muscle.

Outlook: A healthy Hernandez put on a show at UF's March 17 Pro Day and shouldn't be "dinged" by NFL teams for the back injury. While teams must face the reality that Hernandez will never be a blocking asset, his play-making ability will keep him from slipping past the third round.

[SIZE=+1]7. Ed Dickson, Oregon[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'4/249
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.67 forty, 23 x 225, 9'7" long jump
Style Comparison: Fred Davis
2009 Stats: 42 - 551 (13.1) - 6 Tds

Positives/Negatives: Another tight end widely billed as "catch-first," Dickson was used more as a blocker at Oregon than most people think, especially in downfield running situations. The Ducks employed an extremely ground-heavy offense, quarterbacked by dual-threat Jeremiah Masoli, and ran 547 times compared to 338 throws in 2009. Dickson, who played defensive end, wideout, and covered kickoffs early in his career, moved to tight end as a sophomore and became a three-year starter, catching 120 passes over that span and averaging 13.8 yards per reception in his final two seasons. Dickson lacks dominant speed, but is a gifted natural athlete with great hands and ideal experience. He will need to add strength in both the upper and lower halves.

Outlook: Like all tight ends coming from college spreads, Dickson will face a transition period in the pros. However, soft hands and above-average speed should allow him to get on the field quickly, even if it's only as a situational player. He projects as a third- to fourth-round pick.

[SIZE=+1]8. Andrew Quarless, Penn State[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'4/254
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.69 forty, 23 x 225, 32" vertical, 9'4" long jump
Style Comparison: Kevin Boss
2009 Stats: 41 - 536 (13.1) - 3 Tds

Positives/Negatives: A four-year starter and well-rounded prospect, Quarless was used extensively as both an in-line, blocking tight end and pass catcher in the Nittany Lions' pro-style offense. Though rarely asked to run downfield routes in college, Quarless is deceptively fast and showed the ability to dominate a game by racking up 88 yards on eight catches in PSU's 2009 Capitol One Bowl win over LSU. Quarless continued the red-hot finish to his career with a terrific showing at this year's East-West Shrine Game, manhandling top pass-rushing prospect Greg Hardy on the practice field. Quarless, however, was constantly in trouble at Penn State. He was cited for underage drinking after his freshman season, arrested for DUI in March of 2008, and was suspended the same offseason when marijuana was found in his on-campus apartment.

Outlook: Quarless, who has the words "God's Gift" tattooed down his arms, did stay out of trouble as a senior. He is not a dynamic play-maker like some tight ends at the top of this list, but may play sooner because of his blocking ability. In time, he could grow into a serviceable starter and every-down player. Off-field issues, though, may keep Quarless out of the first three rounds.

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[SIZE=+1]9. Anthony McCoy, USC[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'4/259
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.79 forty, 19 x 225, 35.5" vertical, 9'5" long jump
Style Comparison: Bubba Franks
2009 Stats: 22 - 457 (20.8) - 1 Td

Positives/Negatives: Another product of a pro-style system, McCoy took over as USC's starter after Fred Davis graduated and started for the next two years. With true freshman Matt Barkley under center in '09, McCoy paced the Trojans in yards-per-catch average while also gaining significant blocking experience. McCoy, however, isn't as fast as his statistics indicate, scored just three receiving touchdowns in four years, and was injury prone throughout his career. A torn hamstring ended his freshman season prematurely, and McCoy never seemed to get over a 2007 ankle sprain. The aggravated injury cost him two games in 2009 and limited him for the stretch run. McCoy was also ruled ineligible for the 2009 Emerald Bowl for academic reasons.

Outlook: McCoy has the skill set to play early and contribute on three downs, but lacks difference-making talent and his ankle problems threaten to be chronic. Still, he'd be a worthwhile third-round pick for a team in need of a complete tight end like the Bengals, Ravens, or Cardinals.

[SIZE=+1]10. Tony Moeaki, Iowa[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'3/245
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.69 forty, 18 x 225, 34" vertical, 9'5" long jump
Style Comparison: Bo Scaife
2009 Stats: 30 - 387 (12.9) - 4 Tds

Positives/Negatives: Moeaki was the nation's No. 1 tight end recruit in 2005, but a myriad of injuries prevented him from realizing his promise until the stretch run of his senior year. He missed all but four games as a junior with a broken wrist, dislocated elbow, and two concussions. Granted a medical redshirt in 2007, Moeaki proceeded to break his foot during the '08 offseason. He missed the first three games of his senior year with a high ankle sprain, before going on to make first-team All-Big Ten. Experienced in Kirk Ferentz's pro-style scheme, Moeaki is as complete a tight end prospect as you'll find when healthy. He is an NFL-ready blocker, has speed to stretch the seam, and never takes a snap off. Keeping him off the shelf will be the hard part.

Outlook: Moeaki is worth a flier in the middle rounds because he projects to be an asset in three phases, including special teams. A litany of injury red flags, though, will keep him low on many draft boards. Moeaki would probably be a reach before the fourth round of the draft.

11. Garrett Graham, Wisconsin - 4.71 speed at 6'3/243, although played last season in the 230-pound range ... first-team All-Big Ten as both a junior and senior ... 51/624/12.2 last year with seven touchdowns ... Has some Owen Daniels appeal as a sure-handed "move" tight end.

12. Clay Harbor, Missouri State - Combine standout ran 4.69 at 6-foot-2 1/2 and 252 lbs. with a 10-foot broad jump ... Faced weak competition, but made first-team All-Missouri Valley in each of his final three seasons ... H-back type, converted wideout could be core special teamer.

13. Nate Byham, Pittsburgh - Caught just 10 passes for 108 yards in 2009, but perhaps nation's top pure blocking tight end ... Still made second-team All-Big East for blocking prowess ... At Combine, ran 4.97 at 6'4/268 ... Similar prospect to Fresno State's Bear Pascoe last year.

14. Colin Peek, Alabama - 26/313/12.0 with three TDs in '09 ... Georgia Tech transfer led Crimson Tide in third-down receptions last year ... 6'6/250 with lots of in-line blocking experience in Alabama's pro-style offense ... Limited upside, but possible long-term No. 2 tight end.

15. Ali Villanueva, Army - Amazingly transitioned from Army's starting left tackle as a junior to the Black Knights' No. 1 wide receiver in 2009 (34/522/15.4/5) ... Also played defensive end in college ... 6'9/277 ... Runs a 4.8 forty, so may move back to offensive tackle in the pros.

Other TEs on the draft radar: Jameson Konz (Kent State), Steve Maneri (Temple), Scott Sicko (New Hampshire), Michael Palmer (Clemson), Brody Eldridge (Oklahoma), Jim Dray (Stanford), Logan Paulsen (UCLA), Cody Slate (Marshall), Richard Dickson (LSU), Riar Greer (Colorado), Jeron Mastrud (Kansas State), Jeff Cottam (Tennessee), Michael Hoomanawanui (Illinois), Ben Wooster (Wake Forest), Nate Overbay (Eastern Washington), Dedrick Epps (Miami)

 

[HacheMan]

Burning Questions Preview
Rotoworld is fueled by the invaluable information gathered by NFL beat reporters from around the country. They are our eyes and ears in the locker room and on the field.

The juiciest of nuggets will be available in the 2010 Rotoworld/Beckett magazine, scheduled to hit news stands by the end of next month. Here is a sampling of the column.

ARIZONA CARDINALS - Darren Urban (AZCardinals.com)

On the field, what do you think the biggest impact of Kurt Warner's retirement will be on the Cardinals' offense?

I don't think there is any question the Cardinals will pass a little less this season. If Kurt had a choice, he wanted to pass early and often. I don't think the structure of the offense will change a lot, but I think the process will be different. Matt Leinart prefers to be under center (Warner liked to be in shotgun) and Leinart is much better on play-action fakes, something Whisenhunt would have probably used more often had it been a Warner strength. I do think it will mean more balance between run and pass, although that doesn't necessarily mean 50/50 either.

ATLANTA FALCONS - D. Orlando Ledbetter (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Could Harry Douglas unseat Michael Jenkins as the Falcons' starting split end?

Yes. Douglas must make it back from his knee injury, but if that goes according to the Falcons' medical plan, he will get a chance to flash his explosiveness and open field running ability. Jenkins' steadiness has been rewarded, but he has not delivered the big play as frequently as the team would like.

BALTIMORE RAVENS - Aaron Wilson (Carroll County Times)

Will Willis McGahee continue to be the go-to back at the goal line in 2010?

Willis McGahee has the top combination of power and instincts in the red zone on the team. While he's not as elusive as Ray Rice, he's got some wiggle and hands. And he's not as big as Le'Ron McClain, but he hits the hole faster. A dozen rushing touchdowns and a total of 14 scores is proven production. Why fix what ain't broke?

CAROLINA PANTHERS - Darin Gantt (Charlotte Observer/Rock Hill Herald)

Do you expect an even better (or worse) version of Jonathan Stewart as he comes off Achilles' surgery?

Stewart should be better, though it's hard to argue with what he's produced. Despite barely practicing last year, he overtook DeAngelo Williams for the team rushing lead when the starter was out with an ankle problem. Stewart hasn't missed a game in his time here, which makes it hard to question his durability. They were, however, babying him last year, so if he's able to cut loose and run full strength, he could be even more dangerous. Personally, I think he's the better of the two backs, and the better fit for what they do here -- not that Williams isn't a fit.

CHICAGO BEARS - Sean Jensen (Chicago Sun Times)

Do you see any chance of Chester Taylor supplanting Matt Forte as the starting tailback?

There is definitely a chance because the Bears are on the hook for at least $7 million for Chester Taylor. That's a steep price to pay for an insurance policy or someone to push the incumbent. But, there may not be a traditional starter in Chicago. Who starts may not matter all that much because it could be like many duos in the league, like Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

DENVER BRONCOS - Mike Klis (Denver Post)

Who do you project as the Broncos' Week 1 starting quarterback, and can you put a percentage on Tim Tebow's chances of starting games in 2010?

If Kyle Orton is not traded, he will be the starting quarterback. I think he'll be traded and Brady Quinn will be the Week 1 starting quarterback. At that point it's Quinn's job to lose. I think the percentages are high that Tebow will start at least one game in 2010. He could even be the starter by midseason.

DETROIT LIONS - Tom Kowalski (MLive.com)

Handicap Jahvid Best's chances of keeping the Lions' feature running back job over the course of the season.

Unless he turns into a complete bust, there's no question that Best will be the feature back. The Lions drafted him specifically to be the main running threat and, while he'll get a breather from time to time to keep him fresh throughout the season, he's the guy they're counting on to take pressure off the passing attack.

 

[HacheMan]

Bold Predictions for 2010
The Rotoworld/Beckett Fantasy Magazine is on the way to the printer after being finalized this week. Full disclosure of the magazine's contents won't be available until it hits news stands next month, but there's time for one final sneak peek. Each member of the Rotoworld football staff provides three bold predictions for the upcoming season.

Chris Wesseling:

1. Following in the footsteps of Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Percy Harvin, Lions first-rounder Jahvid Best will be the electric playmaker to take the league by storm as a rookie. The Lions will win seven or eight games in 2010 behind a high-scoring offense, and Calvin Johnson will break out as the most unstoppable receiver in the league.

2. With Dez Bryant shoving Roy Williams to the side, Tony Romo will lead all quarterbacks in fantasy points in 2010. The Cowboys emerge as the most dynamic offense in the league with Bryant onboard and Felix Jones moving into the starting lineup.

3. Matt Moore will hold off Jimmy Clausen all season long, and Steve Smith will regain his status as a top-five fantasy receiver.

Evan Silva:

1. Jermichael Finley will be the No. 1 overall fantasy tight end. Finley led the Packers in catches, receiving yards, and targets during the team's final eight games last season, and the 23-year-old is only getting better.

2. Devin Aromashodu will emerge as an every-week fantasy starter. Devin Hester will remain involved as a slot receiver and new coordinator Mike Martz will capitalize on Johnny Knox's vertical speed, but Aromashodu is the best red-zone target of the bunch and Jay Cutler's go-to guy.

3. The Bills will go 1-15. They'll get their lone win in Week 14 against the Browns. Faced with an absolutely brutal schedule and the league's least talented passing game, new coach Chan Gailey is in for a long year.

Adam Levitan:

1. Randy Moss will not be a top-10 fantasy WR. Everyone finds their career cliff at some point. Moss is now 33 and is staring triple-teams in the face with Wes Welker (knee) likely sidelined.

2. Matthew Stafford will out-produce Donovan McNabb. One quarterback is trending upward with Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Tony Scheffler and Nate Burleson at his disposal. The other one is playing with a miserable offensive line at age 33 and has Santana Moss/Devin Thomas as "weapons."

3. Beanie Wells will rush for over 1,300 yards. I have visions of Ken Whisenhunt reverting to his old Steelers' smash mouth style, feeding a big back like Wells over and over on early downs. It's obvious that Tim Hightower and his below-average rushing skills should be relegated to strict third-down duty.

Gregg Rosenthal

1. Tom Brady climbs back to the top of the quarterback rankings. Last year's brutal schedule is over and it's another year removed from surgery. And yeah, I'm a homer.

2. Michael Crabtree will be a top-five receiver. He couldn't have been more impressive last year and the NFC West schedule is a big help.

3. Fred Davis will out-gain Chris Cooley and Santonio Holmes will out-gain Braylon Edwards despite his four game suspension. (See how I squeezed an extra prediction in?)

 

[HacheMan]

Injuries In Depth
Injuries are as much a part of football as a Hail Mary or a blown call by the refs. They are simply going to happen. This season, we're going to take a closer look at key injuries with the help of Dr. Brian Eckenrode, a board-certified orthopedic clinical specialist and the sports team leader for GSPP Penn Therapy and Fitness at the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia.

Once the season hits, we'll be calling on Dr. Eckenrode weekly to understand injuries better. For now, we're going to check in intermittently about some offseason injuries that are grabbing headlines:

RONNIE BROWN
Injury: Lisfranc fracture in right foot
What is that: "It's essentially a fracture and/or dislocation of the mid-foot, which supports the arch. It's pretty important for foot stability of a running back."
Outlook for Week 1: "This is not your run of the mill ankle sprain. He should be ready for the season, but his training camp is going to be limited. It depends on the healing. I don't think he'll need to be braced, but an orthotic may be in order."
Risk of aggravation: "It should be strong and stable -- as long as it's healed. The risk of aggravation is solely if he doesn't have his strength back and he still has some pain. In that case, he shouldn't be on the field. If he's truly healed, his risk of aggravation is the same risk as you and I walking across the street and a car bumping into us."

STEVEN JACKSON
Injury: Herniated disc in back
What happened: "Every time he stretched or tweaked his back, it sort of weakened the structure of it until it failed on him."
Risk of aggravation: "I don't think heavy hits would do it. I think more the workload and the repetitive stuff is a concern. But as long as they can clear up any imbalances through his legs and his core, he should be able to maintain. For example, you can argue that he's got a mild weakness in one of his hips, maybe he's overstressing his back. If he does get bent the wrong way - like a jackknife position - that's not going to feel too good for him. The problem is we don't know the condition of the other discs in his back."
Outlook for Week 1: "Those first two or three weeks of camp are going to be key, to see how he handles it and how reacts to it. Each week they should build him up a little more."

LEON WASHINGTON
Injury: Compound right leg fracture
Surgery details: Doctors inserted a stabilizing rod in his leg that he'll play with.
Outlook for leg: "When a bone heals, it actually forms stronger over the fracture site than other areas. Once he builds up enough strength to push off and run and cut off it, he should be OK."
Will the rod affect his play: "No, because it shouldn't be in a spot where it's limiting joint motion. It's actually inside the bone to provide a stable structure for the fracture to heal. Essentially, the cortex which everyone has � his just has this supporting structure in it."
Risk of aggravation: "Patients don't usually complain about the rod, they complain about the irritation from the pins and nails holding the rod in place. His leg will be strong as long as the skin heals and there are no complications from the surgery."
Outlook for Week 1: "He won't be at game speed come training camp. But this is a known entity, putting a rod in. It's not like Jackson's back. Washington should be pretty close to 100 percent by Week 1."

JONATHAN STEWART
Injury: Had surgery to remove a bone spur that was pressing into his troublesome Achilles' tendon.
Why have surgery (Stewart has never missed an NFL game): "That's one of those things -- it's annoying -- but you can play through it. My experience is that if he's got an extra bone coming off his Achilles' tendon, surgery is essentially the only thing that's going to clear that out. If that's what the cause of his symptoms were, and they removed it, then he should be good to go."
Could he be more explosive now that he's had the surgery: "Hard to say. We don't know how he went week-to-week. Some weeks he could have had a lot of pain and some weeks he may have not felt it at all."

 

[HacheMan]

Bouncing Back

All too often, fantasy owners are like shallow, two-faced girlfriends.

They love you when you're on top. When you hit a rough patch, lose your job or wreck your Trans Am, they're quick to hit the road. And they don't stop there. They call you a chump to all their friends and spread bad, sometimes false rumors about you. In most cases, they don't come back.

For more discussion of this column, follow me on Twitter.
Like girlfriends, the fantasy owner capable of identifying true talent worth hanging his or her hat on achieves success and happiness. Especially when the talent encounters hard times.

The following ten players are coming off trying seasons. They disappointed so badly that their 2009 owners probably won't touch them on draft day, even if they fall further than they should. We have a name for this sort of player.

Value picks.

1. Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson

A year after ranking third among fantasy receivers with 78 catches, 1,331 yards, and a league-high 12 receiving scores, Johnson's numbers took a nose dive in 2009. While he still had at least 84 yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-14 appearances, nagging injuries took their toll, and Detroit's inept supporting cast resulted in Johnson being literally triple teamed during the season's second half. He finished a depressing 20th at his position.

Still, Megatron is the game's most naturally gifted receiver, and the Lions made a point to build around him this spring. With Tony Scheffler running off safeties and linebackers down the seam, Jahvid Best keeping defensive back sevens honest, and Nate Burleson upgrading over Bryant Johnson, Calvin is primed to flirt with No. 1 fantasy wideout production. Suddenly, Detroit has the look of a pass-heavy offense.

2. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler

An emotional wreck due to awful pass protection (i.e. Orlando Pace) and coordinator Ron Turner's head-scratching play selection, Cutler was an interception waiting to happen throughout 2009. His talent still shined through enough that Cutler set a career high for touchdowns (28 all-purpose) and ranked 12th among fantasy quarterbacks despite an NFL-high 26 picks.

Yeah, he's a baby. But he can spin it. And Cutler now has perhaps the most passer-friendly offensive mind in history on his side. Mike Martz's 1999-2001 Rams offenses all led the NFL in passing, and his Rams teams in 2002-2005 and Lions offenses in 2006-2007 all finished in the top five in pass attempts. With Johnny Knox in the Torry Holt role, Devin Hester as Isaac Bruce, and Devin Aromashodu ticketed for Kevin Curtis/Ricky Proehl duties, Martz won't stop winging it.

3. Falcons running back Michael Turner

The Curse of 370 made Turner its latest victim as he slogged through last season's first six weeks with a 3.4 yards-per-carry average, before a high ankle sprain in Week 10 ultimately proved year ending. Turner did string together a run of 151-, 166-, and 111-yard games before the injury, so it's not like his tank was on empty. According to Pro Football Focus, Turner also tied for third in the league in yards after contact per rushing attempt. He was still breaking plenty of tackles.

Turner just turned 28, so he should have at least a couple of big years left. He also reported to the Falcons' offseason program in tip-top shape. While the team intends to hold Turner under 300 carries this season, Atlanta's offense projects to be much improved with Matt Ryan, Harry Douglas, and linemen Harvey Dahl and Sam Baker back healthy. Turner is a top-ten pick again.

4. Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith

With Jake Delhomme Jevan Sneading passes into the seats before Delhomme's year-ending Week 12 injury, Smith managed just four touchdowns and a 54.9 yards-per-game average in the first 11 weeks. He upped the numbers to a 94.5-yard average and back-to-back-to-back games with a score in three starts with Moore, but Smith's season ended due to a fractured forearm in late December.

Moore is now the starter, backed up by promising rookie Jimmy Clausen. While Carolina will maintain a decidedly run-first approach, the improved accuracy going from Delhomme to Moore constitutes a major upgrade at quarterback. The Panthers rarely throw to their No. 2 receiver and tight end, so Smith will continue to be a target hound. Recovered from his injury, Smith is an ideal "buy low" WR2.

5. Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings

The No. 4 fantasy receiver in 2008, Jennings fell all the way to 21st in 2009. The Packers made him one of the NFL's highest paid receivers last offseason, and Jennings played perhaps the best football of his life (career bests in "drop rate" and yards after catch), but pass protection problems led to a heavier reliance on underneath receiver Donald Driver. Jennings is a deep threat.

With Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher finally healthy down the stretch, however, Jennings retook his deserved No. 1 receiver role. In Green Bay's final four games, he averaged 97 yards per week with two touchdowns. Driver didn't score and averaged 54.25 yards a contest. This year, Green Bay will go deep more with Clifton and Tauscher re-signed and 23rd overall pick Bryan Bulaga added as starting-caliber insurance. A much better player than Driver, Jennings is bound to reemerge as Aaron Rodgers' go-to guy.

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6. Giants running back Brandon Jacobs

Jacobs showed toughness by playing through a knee injury suffered in the Giants' 2009 opener, but the team might've been better off if he hadn't. Outplayed by backup Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs didn't top the 92-rushing yard mark once, and averaged a measly 40.7 yards per game in the final seven weeks. He was placed on injured reserve before New York's season finale.

Jacobs, still just 28 with under 800 career carries, had the knee scoped in January and was fully cleared for OTAs. The Giants can now resume their preferred run-first attack. Improvement on the offensive line is also likely, with liability left guard Rich Seubert on his way out of the starting lineup. Look for Jacobs to bounce back with a 1,000-yard, double-digit touchdown campaign.

7. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan

Cool, efficient, and aggressive as a rookie, Ryan experienced drops in completion rate (61.1 to 58.3), yards per attempt (7.9 to 6.5), and yards per game (215 to 208.3) as a sophomore, while tossing more picks (11, 14) in two fewer starts. He threw multiple touchdown passes in five of Atlanta's first six games, but a late-year case of turf toe and injuries to Harry Douglas, Sam Baker, Harvey Dahl, and Michael Turner made the Falcons easy to game plan for, particularly down the stretch.

Ryan, Dahl, Turner, and Baker all return at 100 percent with coordinator Mike Mularkey intent on emphasizing the downfield passing attack. Douglas, who has a chance to overtake pedestrian split end Michael Jenkins, is also due back. Mularkey wants to keep Turner under 300 carries, which may be a subtle hint that the team will pass more. Ryan is the ultimate post-hype fantasy pick.

8. Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe

After reporting overweight to offseason workouts, Bowe immediately found himself in new coach Todd Haley's doghouse and ran with the third-team offense throughout 2009 camp. Bowe regained his starting job before Week 1, posting 76+ yards and/or a touchdown in seven of the first eight games, but lost all momentum when he was suspended for Weeks 11-14 for PED use. Bowe fell from the No. 16 overall fantasy receiver in 2008 to 55th in 2009.

Haley isn't toying around anymore, installing an in-shape Bowe with the starters at OTAs. The Chiefs also tabbed Charlie Weis to overhaul the passing game. Weis produced career years from David Givens, Deion Branch, and Troy Brown in New England, and Rhema McKnight, Maurice Stovall, and Jeff Samardzija at Notre Dame. Never before has he worked with a talent like Bowe.

9. Colts running back Donald Brown

The 27th overall pick and 2008 NCAA rushing leader, Brown's first year was derailed by injuries, rookie mistakes, and indecision between the tackles. There were bright spots, though. The Colts weren't afraid to use him in short yardage, at least early in the season, and there's no question that Brown has more big-play ability than starter Joseph Addai. Brown also pass protected better than given credit for.

The Colts ranked dead last in rushing last season, so improving the ground attack has certainly been an offseason focus. While the team expects upgrades at left guard and perhaps left tackle, Brown is Indianapolis' true lottery ticket. Brown is going to be available in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts, and he may not come more cheaply for a long time with Addai in a contract year.

10. Lions tight end Tony Scheffler

Scheffler appeared in 15 games last season. Just once did he play over half of Denver's offensive snaps. There isn't a more explosive pass-catching tight end in the game, but coach Josh McDaniels buried Scheffler on the bench in favor of Daniel Graham and Jabar Gaffney. Let's collectively remember to never, ever draft a McDaniels tight end in fantasy leagues.

If Detroit leans on the pass as its offseason movement suggests, Scheffler may be the biggest beneficiary behind Calvin Johnson. "Starter" Brandon Pettigrew will focus on blocking coming off a torn ACL, and Scheffler could easily prove a better receiving option than Nate Burleson. Lions OC Scott Linehan has gotten production from weaker talents than Scheffler before, coaching up Jermaine Wiggins as the No. 8 fantasy tight end in 2004 and Randy McMichael into a top-11 TE in 2005.

 

[HacheMan]

Is Driver Done?
The biggest NFL stories at this time of the year involve holdouts, potential holdouts, and contract displeasure. You've probably had your fill of those from the Rotoworld news page, so in this notes column we'll switch the focus. I'll spotlight anticipated roles, rumors, and injury updates.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The 2010 Rotoworld Fantasy Football Guide is now live.

For further discussion of this column, the draft guide, and anything fantasy or NFL related, hit me up on Twitter.

Arizona - With camp still six weeks away, the consensus in Arizona is that Matt Leinart is entrenched as the starting quarterback. Derek Anderson's shaky practices haven't killed rumors of a Marc Bulger signing, but the shell-shocked ex-Ram would be a poor fit behind a transitioning Cards offensive line. ... While Tim Hightower is expected to start, Chris Wells will handily pace the team in carries and yards. We wouldn't rule out Wells passing Hightower early on, either. Beanie will get the ball more, and Arizona's rushing schedule through Week 8 is a cake walk. Just one of the Cards' first-half opponents ranked better than 15th in run defense last season. ... Early Doucet is quietly poised to give Steve Breaston a serious run at the starting job opposite Larry Fitzgerald. Doucet is in the best shape of his life, and is a more physical wideout in Anquan Boldin's likeness.

Atlanta - After battling lower-leg injuries late last year, Michael Turner and Matt Ryan drew raves for the condition in which they reported to spring workouts. Neither player required surgery. Turner is a top-ten pick with 15+ TD potential again, while Ryan is an ideal rebound candidate with the Falcons apparently planning to throw more while scaling back Turner's carries. ... Third-year receiver Harry Douglas' recovery from last summer's torn ACL has gone slower than anticipated. He hasn't resumed practicing, and doesn't appear to be a major threat to Michael Jenkins' job. ... Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey called Roddy White's offseason "maybe one of the best as a receiver since I've been in the league." Mularkey's coaching history includes Hines Ward, Wes Welker, Eric Moulds, Lee Evans, and Yancey Thigpen, so this is a powerful statement.

Carolina - While Matt Moore remains the heavy favorite to start on Opening Day, word in Carolina is that Jimmy Clausen won't go down without a fight. Clausen has generated positive hype in all of the Panthers-based papers during OTAs, and the better he looks in practice, the shorter leash Moore will have to open the year. ... Fully recovered from ankle surgery, DeAngelo Williams is practicing without restrictions. Jonathan Stewart (heel) is only working off to the side. The widely-held expectation, however, is that Stewart will be better after his surgery, and "The Daily Show" has yet to miss a game in his career. Still on schedule for the start of camp, Stewart is offering terrific value in early fantasy drafts. For evidence, check out the Pancake Blocks blog.

Chicago - As it was at OTAs, the biggest storyline at Bears camp will be the competition at wide receiver. Johnny Knox is the early leader to start at split end, with new offensive boss Mike Martz praising the second-year wideout's speed. Devin Hester is penciled in at flanker. Jay Cutler favorite Devin Aromashodu is tentatively the third receiver. Though Hester has the front office's backing due to his contract, look for Aromashodu to give him a strong push in August. ... The Chicago Tribune revealed this week that Matt Forte tore his hamstring last summer and played through a sprained MCL sustained in Week 3. While his workload will be greatly reduced by Chester Taylor's presence, a healthy Forte at least projects to make more big plays.

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Dallas - The Patrick Crayton situation draws the most press, but it's all but irrelevant from a fantasy standpoint. Assuming Roy Williams stays in Dallas, Crayton won't be more than a No. 4 receiver. The Williams-Dez Bryant battle is more contentious. While Bryant seemingly makes a handful of highlight-reel grabs per practice, he's lacked perfection. Jerry Jones also isn't ready to give up on Williams. Bryant is already earmarked for all three-wideout sets, though, indicating that he's ticketed for a major role even if he doesn't start in Week 1. ... The tailback job is also up for grabs, and Felix Jones and Marion Barber's offseason decision making may hint at writing on the wall. Jones has bulked up to 225 pounds in preparation for a heavier workload, while MBIII has slimmed down to 215. Look for Jones to outplay Barber in camp and start on Opening Day.

Detroit - Drawing comparisons to Chris Johnson for his speed, size, and versatility, Jahvid Best is slated for "a full workload" as a rookie, no matter the status of Kevin Smith's (ACL surgery) recovery. Best is a shoe-in top-three dynasty pick -- along with Ryan Mathews and Dez Bryant -- and an outstanding value in the fifth round of re-draft leagues. ... Calvin Johnson' impact projects to be far greater thanks to Detroit's additions and the resulting increased single coverage he'll face, but Tony Scheffler arguably was the Lions' biggest offseason beneficiary. Scheffler's offensive snaps will double with the move from Josh McDaniels' tight end-unfriendly scheme to Scott Linehan's two-tight end attack. Scheffler is back on the low-end TE1 radar.

Green Bay - Make no mistake: Donald Driver's dual offseason knee surgeries are a big deal. Though they took place in January and Driver's work ethic is indisputable, at age 35 he is at major fall-off-the-cliff risk. Note that Torry Holt was never the same after his own knee woes, only had surgery on one knee, and was a relatively young 31 at the time. This is good news for Greg Jennings and eventual Driver successor James Jones. ... The Packers would love to supplant Brandon Jackson as their No. 2 and third-down back, but it probably won't be with rookie James Starks. While Starks does not lack the talent to eventually contribute, the sixth-round pick is coming off an injury-ruined senior year and missed a chunk of OTAs with a hamstring strain.

Minnesota - A Vikings notes section isn't a Vikings notes section without a Brett Favre update. The latest has Dr. James Andrews saying Favre (ankle) needs two more weeks of rehab before deciding whether to play. Favre's initial recovery timetable was 4-8 weeks, so he appears to be right on or slightly ahead of schedule. Two weeks from now would put Favre at 41 days removed from surgery. It's essentially a moot point, however, as the team doesn't expect to see Favre before the third exhibition game. ... The Vikings aren't taking Adrian Peterson's ball security lightly. As NFL Network's Solomon Wilcots passes along, film study revealed that A.P.'s fumbles resulted from "refusing to surrender while being tackled." Practicing with a 14-pound ball will "increase muscle memory at all three pressure points ... so that it's naturally kept high and tight."

New Orleans - Pierre Thomas signed his one-year tender at the July 15 deadline, and is no threat to hold out. Having made just over $1 million in his career, he won't risk $16,000 daily fines in August. ... Rookie Jimmy Graham has been the toast of Nola since offseason practices began. A magnificent talent, he'll threaten David Thomas and inevitably injured Jeremy Shockey's early-season snaps if Graham keeps it up when hitting begins. ... While Devery Henderson (sports hernia) appears to be 100 percent, Robert Meachem (toe surgery) is not. The former first-round pick has admitted frustration with his slow recovery and has yet to resume practicing. The Saints' most effective receiver on a per-snap basis in '09, Meachem should be monitored closely.

New York - Domenik Hixon's ACL tear opens the door for promising second-year receiver Ramses Barden to be active on game days, but it's still hard to expect a whole lot from the Plaxico Burress clone. While he's someone to keep in mind if injuries strike, Barden will be no more than a fourth receiver behind Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, and Mario Manningham. ... Speaking of Nicks, the explosive 2009 No. 29 overall pick has returned from offseason toe surgery and by all accounts is obliterating Giants defensive backs in practice. As the deep threat in coordinator Kevin Gilbride's vertical offense, Nicks is primed to break out. ... Brandon Jacobs continues to be undervalued in drafts. Healthy after playing hurt all last year, Jacobs is a full participant in OTAs.

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Philadelphia - We've not heard a ton of Kevin Kolb news this spring, which is a good sign. Rather than break down Kolb's practices pass by pass, Eagles reporters are treating the first-year starter like a veteran, almost taking for granted that Kolb will execute the offense as or even more efficiently than Donovan McNabb. So despite top wideout DeSean Jackson's inconsistent OTA attendance, it's safe to assume Kolb is looking good. ... LeSean McCoy has been in and out of practice due to ankle injuries, giving the coaching staff an extended look at sleeper rookie Charles Scott. A sixth-round pick, Scott would've been drafted higher had he not fractured his collarbone late in the college season. Scott will push middling Mike Bell for short-yardage work.

San Francisco - Alex Smith's grip on the 49ers' starting job is so firm that the team has opened David Carr's backup position to competition with second-year QB Nate Davis. Smith lacks elite talent and doesn't inspire a ton of fantasy confidence, but it's promising to know that he's comfortably picked up a more under center-oriented offense after excelling only from the shotgun in 2009. ... Reports on Michael Crabtree's first NFL offseason have been stellar. It would come as no surprise if he out-produced Vernon Davis in 2010. ... Sidelined with a hamstring strain, rookie Anthony Dixon is putting no heat on Glen Coffee to be Frank Gore's primary backup.

Seattle - LenDale White's release has Justin Forsett's fantasy outlook soaring. While Julius Jones remains on the roster, Forsett couldn't possibly have been more productive by comparison in 2009. Jones probably wouldn't make half of NFL rosters at this point, and Forsett's running style is ideally fit for new line coach Alex Gibbs' zone-blocking scheme. Forsett has been in a similar system dating back to high school. ... The Seahawks' passing game, however, is headed for disaster. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (sports hernia) and Deion Branch (knee) are both over 30 and recovering from offseason surgeries, and quarterback controversy is inevitable. Don't be surprised if tight end John Carlson ends up pacing the Seahawks in receiving.

St. Louis - What do you do when half of your starting offense is injured in non-contact work? Fire the training staff. The Rams are dealing with surgeries to Steven Jackson (back), left guard Jacob Bell (knee), and possibly guard/center Mark Setterstrom (triceps). Left tackle Jason Smith (foot), right tackle Rodger Saffold (knee), and Nos. 1 and 4 receivers Laurent Robinson (leg) and Brandon Gibson (hamstring) are also less than 100 percent. ... Sam Bradford is finally being mixed in with the first-team offense. While it doesn't mean he's been anointed a starter, it at least indicates that St. Louis (thankfully) isn't locked into starting A.J. Feeley in Week 1.

Tampa Bay - Kellen Winslow is the only projected fantasy starter on the Bucs' roster, and even he is to be avoided in drafts. While Winslow vows to be ready for camp, he's recovering from his sixth career knee surgery. At some point, the surgeries are going to sap his speed. ... The Bucs haven't opened their running back job to competition, and were publicly displeased with Derrick Ward's absence from OTAs due to a "dental issue." A huge 2009 fantasy bust, Ward is now barely draftable in 12-team leagues. ... While Arrelious Benn nurses an ankle injury that may be related to the one that greatly hindered his final year at Illinois, fellow rookie Mike Williams is tearing up practices. Williams, quietly, may have already emerged as Tampa's No. 1 wideout.

Washington - You've heard too much about Albert Haynesworth already, so we'll focus on the offense. Coordinator Kyle Shanahan has already named Clinton Portis the Skins' starting tailback heading to training camp, though reviews of Portis have been mixed. Willie Parker isn't going to make the roster. Larry Johnson is apparently adapting nicely to Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and may be the best bet for touchdowns in Washington's backfield. He's getting lots of goal-line work. ... Santana Moss' recovery from knee surgery is ahead of schedule. He should dominate wide receiver targets from Donovan McNabb. ... Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly aren't standing out. Look for Chris Cooley to finish second on the Skins in receiving.

 

[HacheMan]

Harrison vs. Hardesty
Evan Silva broke down the NFC position battles, rumors, and injury updates in last week's offseason low down. This week we'll tackle the fallout from AFC minicamp action. For projections, cheetsheats, player profiles, sleepers, and bold predictions, check out the 2010 Rotoworld Fantasy Football Guide!

Editor's Note: For further NFL, fantasy, and Dynasty league discussion, hit up Chris Wesseling on Twitter.

Baltimore - Capitalizing on his newfound depth at receiver, offensive coordinator Cam Cameron plans to "significantly" increase the Ravens' passing game packages this season. … Cameron calls Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason his "1A and 1B receivers," with Boldin lining up in the slot for three-wide sets. Now 36 years old and no longer Joe Flacco's primary target, Mason is a receiver to steer clear of this summer. … With fresh legs and the fastest forty time ever recorded on the Ravens' field-turf, Donte' Stallworth has a leg up on Mark Clayton for the No. 3 job. Clayton, recently returning from a shoulder scope, is fighting for his roster spot along with Demetrius Williams. … Todd Heap remains "unquestionably" the starting tight end, but he could lose snaps to rookies Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. … Expect Shayne Graham to knock off incumbent kicker Billy Cundiff decisively in training camp.

Buffalo - The Bills are "very open" to the possibility of Brian Brohm starting in Week 1, but he's likely to enter training camp behind Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Though Edwards has taken on more of a leadership role during OTAs, the Bills' passing offense is a fantasy nightmare. … Sulking after the selection of C.J. Spiller in the first round, Marshawn Lynch avoided spring practices until last week. He's still pining for a trade, but nothing is imminent. After standing out in rookie camp, Spiller has been lining up out wide and in the slot in preparation for his Reggie Bush style "hybrid" role. Expect Fred Jackson to continue to draw the majority of carries in the backfield. … James Hardy, Steve Johnson, Chad Jackson and rookie Marcus Easley all saw starting snaps opposite Lee Evans this spring. Hardy and Johnson should separate during training camp, with the winner taking the No. 2 job.

Cincinnati - Despite his late-season fade, Carson Palmer reportedly looked "as sharp as ever" in spring practices. We're going to need to see proof in preseason action before we consider Palmer anymore than a garden variety QB2. … Cedric Benson is pushing for a contract extension, and the Bengals are "open" to the idea. … Backup Bernard Scott has been sidelined for over two weeks after tweaking his ankle in early June. The Bengals are keeping their eyes peeled for a bigger "between-the-tackles" back to complement Scott as Benson insurance. … Chad Ochocinco drew his quarterback's ire for spending the spring on the reality TV circuit, but his head coach called Ocho's absence "the best thing" for the Bengals. … Though Jerome Simpson and Matt Jones saw plenty of starting snaps, the No. 3 job will come down to rookie Jordan Shipley and Andre Caldwell this summer. Shipley was named "Best Newcomer" in the most recent minicamp. … Rookie TE Jermaine Gresham is further along than expected, drawing the praise of Palmer as well as Marvin Lewis. He's beginning to look like a legit TE2.

Cleveland - Coach Eric Mangini refused to anoint Jake Delhomme his starter heading into training camp, which says a lot considering Seneca Wallace's poor play throughout OTAs. Delhomme will win the job, but he won't keep it for long. … Rookie Montario Hardesty capitalized on Jerome Harrison's contract-related absences, earning praise from Mangini for his maturity, quick learning, blitz pickup, and receiving skills. While this backfield has a timeshare look, Hardesty is becoming the favorite to start in Week 1. Harrison's furious late-season finish is already fading in the rear-view mirror. … Brian Robiskie and rookie Carlton Mitchell showed flashes during spring practices, but it doesn't matter. Mohamed Massaquoi is the only receiver worth drafting in Cleveland.

Denver - Kyle Orton outplayed Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow to the point that coach Josh McDaniels declared the competition over two weeks ago. Orton will enter the season as the starter and will have more job security than expected as a fantasy QB2. … Knowshon Moreno could be in line for a breakout season, improving his pass protection and showing greater explosion in OTAs. He's a RB2 with upside. … Eddie Royal is finally concentrating on slot duties, but it's Jabar Gaffney that will take Brandon Marshall's spot as the Broncos' No. 1 receiver. Keep him in mind as a late-round steal. Rookie Demaryius Thomas (foot) will be fully healthy for training camp. Expect him to be used in more of a situational deep threat role to start the season.

Houston - With or without rookie Ben Tate's hamstring injury, it seems that Arian Foster's strong finish to last season has earned his coaches' trust. Foster will enter training camp atop the depth chart, so Tate will need to outplay him in preseason action to enter the season as the unquestioned starter. Steve Slaton (neck surgery) could enter the picture as well if he passes his medical checkup later this week. This backfield could be a "hot hand" situation early in September. … Jacoby Jones, slated to compete for Kevin Walter's No. 2 receiver job, is quickly becoming one of our favorite late-round fliers. He's always had the dominant physical ability, and his newfound consistency is starting to endear him to his head coach … Owen Daniels (ACL surgery) is expected to be limited during training camp, but he should be healthy in time for the regular season.

Indianapolis - Donald Brown is showing improvement in his pass blocking as well as his knowledge of the Colts offense. As long as he stays healthy, he'll eat into Joseph Addai's workload more than he did as a rookie. … Anthony Gonzalez (knee) finally returned to the field in late May, only to miss out on June's practices with a hamstring injury. He's going to be well behind Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie heading into training camp. Garcon and Collie are safe until Gonzalez proves he can stay healthy and effective. … Kicker Adam Vinatieri will have to hold off undrafted rookie Brett Swenson this summer, and we expect the veteran to pull through.

Jacksonville - Coach Jack Del Rio put all talk of a quarterback competition to rest, praising David Garrard's offseason work. Garrard has plenty of job security as a solid QB2 this season. … Rookie Deji Karim flashed homerun-hitting ability in OTAs and could give Rashad Jennings a run for the primary backup running back job. The two would likely split time if Maurice Jones-Drew sustains a major injury. … Del Rio called Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard his No. 2 and No. 3 receivers behind target-hound Mike Sims-Walker. Thomas is a late-round flier with WR4 potential in PPR leagues. … With no pads allowed, Tiquan Underwood had an impressive showing in OTAs for the second straight year. If he can find a way to get off the jam, he'll have a shot to unseat Troy Williamson for the deep-threat role as fourth receiver. … Promising second-year tight end Zach Miller spent the entire spring on the exercise bike, rehabbing a foot injury.

Kansas City - Thomas Jones ran with the starters all spring while Jamaal Charles recovers from offseason shoulder surgery. Charles, the Chiefs MVP last year, is expected to be ready for training camp, pushing Jones into a backup/situational role. We still believe this will shake out as a 65/35 split in Charles' favor. … Dwayne Bowe worked as the first-team split end after spending last offseason in coach Todd Haley's doghouse. … Rookie Dexter McCluster showed playmaking ability in spring practices, but he could end up splitting No. 3 duties with Haley favorite Jerheme Urban. It's a situation to avoid in fantasy leagues. … Rookie Tony Moeaki is the favorite to lead Kansas City tight ends in catches this season, but he won't be more than a low-end TE2 for fantasy purposes.

Miami - Ronnie Brown (Lisfranc fracture) made a surprising return to practice in mid-May, but he was clearly not close to 100 percent. He sat out June OTAs after having a screw removed from his foot. Coach Tony Sparano fully expects Brown to be ready for full contact by training camp, though he remains a red flag injury risk. … Brandon Marshall is ahead of schedule after minor offseason hip surgery, returning to individual work in early June. The hip injury is more of a long-term concern and should not affect his production in 2010. … Brian Hartline, Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo are all battling for the other starting receiver spot opposite Marshall, and Hartline appears to have the early edge.

New England - Despite Wes Welker's remarkable return to the practice field in early June, he's still no lock to be ready for Week 1. In fact, beat writer Mike Reiss recently predicted that Welker will open the season on PUP list, creating an early-season fantasy window for Julian Edelman. … While Edelman mans the slot, Brandon Tate has been running opposite Randy Moss with starters in OTAs. The second-year kick return ace will have to hold off Torry Holt in training camp. … Tom Brady has had no substantial talks with the Pats as he enters a contract year, and there are reports of a "growing disconnect" between the sides. Brady is in no danger of leaving New England, but he's expected to wait until Peyton Manning sets the market before he re-signs.

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez made it through Jets OTAs and minicamps unscathed after undergoing early-offseason knee surgery. Coach Rex Ryan plans to balance out the offense this year, allowing Sanchez to inch closer to legit QB2 status with an upgrade at wide receiver. … With the Jets loosening the reigns on Sanchez, TE Dustin Keller stands to be the primary beneficiary. … Shonn Greene is expected to handle the majority of the early-down work at running back, with LaDainian Tomlinson taking over Leon Washington's passing-down role. It remains to be seen if L.T. will vulture goal-line duties as well. … Jerricho Cotchery is being pushed into the slot role after the first four games of the season, with Santonio Holmes entering as the split end opposite flanker Braylon Edwards. Don't expect a fantasy star to emerge with the three eating into each other's value. … Kicker Nick Folk will enter training camp on thin ice after struggling throughout spring practices.

Oakland - After originally stating that he wanted one running back to emerge as the bell-cow, coach Tom Cable now seems resigned to a tandem backfield with Michael Bush and Darren McFadden. Bush is the better pick in standard leagues while McFadden has a higher upside in PPR leagues. Both are breakout candidates now that Jason Campbell has replaced JaMarcus Russell. … Chaz Schilens (foot surgery) returned to the practice field, ensuring that he'll be fully healthy as the No. 1 receiver entering training camp. He's another interesting late-round flier at receiver. … Last year's rookie flop Darrius Heyward-Bey is the favorite to start opposite Schilens after turning heads throughout OTAs. We're still not holding out much hope for redraft value, but he's once again worth stashing in Dynasty leagues.

Pittsburgh - Byron Leftwich took the majority of the first-team reps all spring and is poised to enter training camp as the favorite to start the season opener. Dennis Dixon will have to play lights-out in exhibition action to unseat Leftwich for the first month of the season. … Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has opened short-yardage duties to competition, so Rashard Mendenhall will have to hold off Isaac Redman and rookie Jonathan Dwyer in training camp. … Breakout candidate Mike Wallace enters the starting lineup opposite Hines Ward following the Santonio Holmes trade. Antwaan Randle El will enter the season in the No. 3 role, though rookie Emmanuel Sanders could make a push as the year goes on.

San Diego - GM A.J. Smith is proceeding as if unsigned restricted free agents Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill will hold out well into the season. Jackson is also facing a potential suspension, so his early-season value is in jeopardy regardless. Though Legedu Naanee will likely fill in, Malcom Floyd is the biggest beneficiary of any time V-Jax misses. … Rookie Ryan Mathews was immediately installed as the focal point of the running game, with coach Norv Turner projecting 250 carries and 40 receptions. Mathews is a high-end RB2 as a second-round fantasy pick. … Antonio Gates (plantar fasciitis) may be limited in training camp, but he insists the injury is minor. While this injury is not to the same foot as his previous injury, we'll feel a lot better about him as the No. 1 fantasy tight end if he's back to 100 percent by the time preseason action begins.

Tennessee - Chris Johnson has dominated headlines all spring, skipping practices while he fruitlessly attempts to cash in on last year's record-breaking season. CJ2K may hold out at the beginning of training camp, but he's fully expected to return to the fold by August 10 to remain in compliance with the NFL's "30-day" rule. He remains the obvious No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts. … Kenny Britt is still climbing the depth chart after he got off to a disastrous start to the spring, showing immaturity off the field and arriving to OTAs out of shape. He's the one Titans receiver capable of making fantasy noise, so we're hoping he can land the No. 1 job by the end of August. … The league is looking into a June incident where Vince Young was cited for assault, though a suspension doesn't seem likely at this point.

 

[HacheMan]

Running at Rookie Precedent
I know it's the Year of the Tiger because the back of the menu at Hunan Wok told me so. In fantasy, I think it's the Year of the Rookie Running Back because of how fast they're flying off the board in mocks.

I've participated in three industry mocks so far, and five rookie running backs have been selected before the end of Round 7 every time. The range is from Ryan Mathews at 1.11 in the "Dirty Dozen" league to Ben Tate at 7.09 in the second edition of our magazine mock.

In between, Jahvid Best, C.J. Spiller and Montario Hardesty are being selected as RB2/3 types between Rounds 3 and 7. We know that running back is a position where rookies can come in and have a major impact, but it's a lot of hype to live up to.

So that got me to thinking: How do rookie running backs historically fare when they have been selected in the first seven rounds of fantasy drafts?

2009
* Knowshon Moreno's average draft position (ADP) was 61.4. He finished as the No. 17 fantasy back.
* Beanie Wells' ADP was 64.4. He finished as the No. 31 fantasy back.

Editor's note: To see where Moreno and Wells rank this season, check out the 2010 Rotoworld Draft Guide!

2008
* Darren McFadden's ADP was 44.6. He finished as the No. 44 fantasy back.
* Jonathan Stewart's ADP was 56.1. He finished as the No. 23 fantasy back.
* Kevin Smith's ADP was 67.7. He finished as the No. 18 fantasy back.
* Matt Forte's ADP was 69.9. He finished as the No. 4 fantasy back.

2007
* Marshawn Lynch's ADP was 40.4. He finished as the No. 12 fantasy back.
* Adrian Peterson's ADP was 43.2. He finished as the No. 3 fantasy back.

2006
* Reggie Bush's ADP was 24.5. He finished as the No. 17 fantasy back.
* Joseph Addai's ADP was 65.8. He finished as the No. 12 fantasy back.

2005
* Ronnie Brown's ADP was 39.1. He finished as the No. 23 fantasy back.
* Cadillac Williams' ADP was 40.1. He finished as the No. 19 fantasy back.
* J.J. Arrington's ADP was 49.2. He finished as the No. 55 fantasy back.
* Cedric Benson's ADP was 63.4. He finished as the No. 86 fantasy back.

2004
* Kevin Jones' ADP was 58.6. He finished as the No. 21 fantasy back.

2003
No rookie running backs had an ADP of 79 or better.

2002
* William Green's ADP was 56.0. He finished as the No. 27 fantasy back.
* Clinton Portis' ADP was 68.7. He finished as the No. 4 fantasy back.

2001
* Michael Bennett's ADP was 35.2 He finished as the No. 29 fantasy back.
* LaDainian Tomlinson's ADP was 43.6. He finished as the No. 7 fantasy back.

2000
* Ron Dayne's ADP was 30.3. He finished as the No. 29 fantasy back.
* Jamal Lewis' ADP was 41.6 He finished as the No. 16 fantasy back.
* Thomas Jones' ADP was 56.1 He finished as the No. 43 fantasy back.

1999
* Ricky Williams' ADP was 16.9. He finished as the No. 27 fantasy back.
* Edgerrin James's ADP was 19.4. He finished as the No. 1 fantasy back.

Note: Average draft position compiled using data from mockdraftcentral.com, fflcalculator.com and myfantasyleague.com. ADP before 1999 was unavailable.

OBSERVATIONS
Of the 24 players above, just five finished among the top-10 running backs in fantasy. Half (12) finished in the top-20. 79 percent (19 of 24) finished among the top-30. ... Among those with an ADP of 30 or better, just 25 percent (one of four) finished among the top-10 running backs in fantasy. ... Only one (Edgerrin James) finished in the top-5.

As you can see, the results aren't overwhelming. Most of the time, rookie runners touted highly in fantasy circles end up at least with flex-play value. But in the vast majority of cases, they haven't stepped right in and been difference-makers on fantasy rosters. Keep that in mind when rolling the dice on rookies this year. Here's a quick look at this year's crop:

RYAN MATHEWS: CURRENT ADP 16.6
His ADP is the highest of any rookie back in the last 11 years. With virtually no competition for carries in a high-powered offense, Mathews is well-deserving of that status. Norv Turner has already said that he wants to get Mathews close to 300 touches.

JAHVID BEST: CURRENT ADP: 38.5
Kevin Smith was never that impressive anyway, and now he's coming off a torn ACL. Best is locked in as the feature back in an offense that figures to be plenty explosive this season. It's worth noting that coach Jim Schwartz uses the Internet for something other than fantasy sports and porn -- he watches Youtube clips of Best.

BEN TATE: CURRENT ADP: 58.7
Arian Foster is the starter right now, but the Texans didn't trade up to nab Tate for nothing. This is one of the top training camp battles to watch as we expect Tate to gradually assume a larger role as the season goes on.

C.J. SPILLER: CURRENT ADP: 60.1
A ridiculously fast playmaker, we'd be a lot more excited about Spiller if he landed somewhere else. The Bills' quarterback situation is pathetic and their offensive line woes only complicate matters. On top of that, Fred Jackson is the starter and Marshawn Lynch apparently isn't going anywhere.

MONTARIO HARDESTY: CURRENT ADP: 86.6
Ever since the first offseason practices, the Browns' brass has been carrying around tissues to wipe the drool off their faces when watching Hardesty. That may have been a ploy to light a fire under Jerome Harrison, who was staging a mini-holdout. Either way, Hardesty appears headed for at least a hot-hand situation in a bad offense.

 

[HacheMan]

Injuries In Depth

Injuries are as much a part of football a Hail Mary or a blown call. They are simply going to happen. This season, we're going to take a closer look at key injuries with the help of Dr. Brian Eckenrode, a board-certified orthopedic clinical specialist and the sports team leader for GSPP Penn Therapy and Fitness at the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia.

Once the season hits, we'll be checking in with Dr. Eckenrode weekly to understand injuries better. For now, we're going to check in intermittently about some offseason injuries that are grabbing headlines.

This month, we're going to focus on some banged up pass-catchers:


STEVE SMITH
Injury: Fractured radius in left forearm.
Did the fact that he broke the same arm last year contribute to this break? He didn't break it in the exact same spot because the plate is there to protect it. But maybe it was a little weaker just off of the plate.
Is it a given that he'll be ready for Week 1? Obviously it won't affect his cardio condition or his legs because he'll still be able to run. If it was a leg thing we'd be a little more worried. This is just a matter of if he's hesitant to throw his arm out to stiff arm a guy or brace himself.
Is he more susceptible to breaking it again? Unless you've got some crazy disorder, it's just one of those freak things. He's that unlucky one percent that has done this twice. He's not more susceptible to breaking it again than anyone else.

DONALD DRIVER
Injury: Arthroscopic surgery in both knees.
What kind of scope did Driver have? It sounds like he had a clean-up procedure. Maybe the meniscus had a little tear in it here or there. Maybe he had some scar tissue that needed to be cleaned out to help flexibility and motion.
Can this actually make him better? Certainly he's not going to last forever. This is kind of buying him some time, a longer time versus if he didn't have this done. If he didn't have it done, he might have struggled this year.
Will he still be limited come training camp? (Driver sat out all of spring practices) I wouldn't be surprised if his training camp was limited compared to most guys just to make sure he's fresher for the season. It sounds like he's feeling much better versus the last several weeks of last season. This isn't something that was preventing him from playing -- it was preventing him from playing at top capacity.
Are his knees going to give him trouble during the season? Certainly a possibility. We don't know what the exact condition of his knees are.

ANTONIO GATES
Injury: Plantar fasciitis in right foot
What is plantar fasciitis? It's inflammation of the tissue on the bottom of the foot that supports the arch. In the most severe cases, even walking is painful. Imagine a guy trying to do a sprint or make some cuts, every time he's pushing off that foot its going to be painful.
Is there extra concern because Gates' left foot gave him problems last year? It's nothing that's going to keep him out, its just a matter of how much pain he can deal with and how they can resolve the symptoms. Hopefully they are addressing any imbalances. Bigger, heavier individuals are more prone to it.
Risk of aggravation? Certainly there's a risk, and especially in his case since he's had it twice. He needs to keep up with his program. He may have something biomechanical going to with his hips, his knees, or his back that may be setting himself up for this. If he's not addressing some of these maintenance things, it could definitely flare up again. However, now that he's had it on both sides, they are probably taking a closer look at him.

BRANDON MARSHALL
Injury: Undisclosed procedure on his hip.
The Dolphins say the procedure was minor. You buying that? Most likely he really did have a cleanup, where they basically clean out some fraying or wear and tear in his labrum. He may have had a bone spur removed, which is another thing I would consider a cleanup. If he tore his labrum, he would have been on crutches for a longer time.
Is it concerning that he's had two surgeries on two different hips in two seasons? Sometimes these surgeries can be kind of tricky. It could be any number of things, maybe he just aggravated it. Maybe he just had a little patchwork last time to get him by. He certainly could have mobility issues at his hip, and that's why he's generating more wear and tear [on both sides]. What is his short-term and long-term outlook? I don't see it as anything to be worried about this season. But I would certainly say that long-term is a big issue. He's had two procedures already and he's such a young guy. How many times do you need this cleaned out? That's certainly going to take a toll.