Dave Malinsky
6* #514 DENVER over L.A. LAKERS</b>
On Saturday we focused on what we thought were a litany of edges that Denver had over the Lakers going into Game #3, and with the Nuggets winning each of the first three quarters, adding up to an 8-point advantage going into the final period, the path to a winning ticket appeared to be there. Then a team that has played so flawlessly throughout the playoffs turned in their worst quarter of the post-season, getting out-scored 32-18 to not only turn that game around, but to put their backs firmly against the wall here. And while that setting could be awkward for a team with a different mentality, they bring exactly the kind of aggression and intensity to
step up big under the circumstances. We believe that turns this one into a blowout.
Denver did a lot of things right in Game #3 ? more points in the
paint, more fast break points, more steals, fewer turnovers and more offensive rebounds. Those are the hustle categories in which we believe the Nuggets have substantial advantages in this matchup, and once again they easily won the battle of the benches, out-scoring Los Angeles 29-15, with a 17-15 edge in rebounds and 8-5 in assists. So what went wrong? Two areas that can easily turn around. After playing
the best basketball of his career in the first two games, Carmelo Anthony had a foul-plagued outing in which he only made 4-13 field goal attempts, including 1-7 from beyond the arc, and he finished with more fouls than rebounds and more turnovers than assists. That is not going to happen again. And as a team the Nuggets were a dismal 5-27 from 3-point range, dragging down their overall shooting to 39.3
percent. We can also expect that to turn around, and note that even with that awful accuracy they still held a 95-93 lead when Kobe Bryant made that tough triple with 1:09 remaining. On a night in which they got a poor game from a superstar and shot about as poorly from long range as they had all season, they still had the lead almost 47 minutes into the proceedings.
Now not only do we expect a much better performance from the Nuggets, but the Lakers look even more vulnerable. The bench issues are in play again. The limited fuel left in the tank of Derek Fisher showed again on Saturday (only four points and two assists in 26:13). Andrew Bynum continues to show a lack of rhythm and played only 20:47. But the Lakers got big-time games from Bryant and Pau Gasol, who scored
61 of their 103 points. That, however, comes at a toll. Bryant had to have an IV solution after the game, and only shot free throws in practice yesterday. Meanwhile Gasol is off of a draining 42:53, and he and Bryant played more minutes than anyone else on the floor. That particularly matters because of the Denver altitude, and their ability to regenerate after just one day off, and having had more than one day off only once since the start of the Houston series, raises serious flags for tonight. And Trevor Ariza, who has been an integral part of the Laker floor game, is being bothered by both a
hip pointer and a strained groin. This is a fragile team for this
setting, one that will not be able to take the kind of punch being thrown by the home team and still be able to stay on their feet.
