FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
MLB Baseball Monday
Play Boston (-190) over Chicago White Sox (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Boston has won 13 of the last 15 games and they have also won 15 of the last 20 games after having won four or five of the last six games. Jon Lester has won 36 of the last 46 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 3-0 over the last three starts.
Play Philadelphia (-180) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:00 PM EST
Roy Halladay has won 8 of the last 9 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has an ERA of 1.87 in all road starts this season.
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Play Atlanta (-180) over San Diego (Bonus)
MLB Baseball Monday
Play Boston (-190) over Chicago White Sox (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Boston has won 13 of the last 15 games and they have also won 15 of the last 20 games after having won four or five of the last six games. Jon Lester has won 36 of the last 46 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 3-0 over the last three starts.
Play Philadelphia (-180) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:00 PM EST
Roy Halladay has won 8 of the last 9 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has an ERA of 1.87 in all road starts this season.
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Play Atlanta (-180) over San Diego (Bonus)
PORT PORT SPORTS
There are a couple decent trends in play today, but nothing that would warrant a 10-UNIT play today, so we are laying low a little again today. But we are going to hit them hard and get our week started off right!!! Here are the top plays for today......
$500 *SUPER PRIME PLAYS*
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-180) --
Although this game carries a little bit more juice than I normally like to lay, this game just seems like a for sure casher and it would be foolish not to jump on it and take some of the cashings for ourselves. The Phillies have been red-hot as of late, having won 5 of 6 overall, despite yesterday's stinker to the NYM. Against Washington they have been almost that good as they have won 43 out of the L56 games between these to teams. 43-13!! The Phillies come into the game having won 5 in a row overall against the Nats, and 11 of their L13 when these two teams match-up together. For the Nats, it doesn't look like today is going to get any easier as Halladay is on the hill and has completely dominated them in his career. As if the fact that Halladay has only allowed 5 R in 32 IP in his L4 starts against them wasn't good enough, over his L9 starts against them, he is 9-0 with a 1.49 ERA when he faces their meager lineup. He is 2-0 against them so far this season with a 3-2 win and then later a 7-3 PHI victory. On the other side of the mound, Hernandez looks to try to find some way to win a ballgame after pitching pretty effectively in his last 2 outings and for the most part on the season. For the 2011 campaign so far, he is 3-6 with a 3.71 ERA and last start he was in line for the win after allowing 3 ER in 6 IP, before the bullpen was tagged for 4 runs themselves and lost the game. He has pitched extremely well through 5 home starts in WAS this season as he is 3-2 with a 1.80 ERA in those games. I expect the Phillies to remain hot and get a few runs across against Hernandez before the Nats can do the same to Halladay. This one should be a tight, low-scoring contest, but I say roll with the PHILLIES to win it in the end..........
UNDER 9.5 FLA MARLINS @ AZ DIAMONDBACKS (-110) --
The Diamondbacks are in first place near the end of May?? What? Where did this team come from? They have been on fire as of late, winners of 14 of their L16 and took yet another 3-game set in Houston over the weekend. The Diamondbacks also come into the game looking to extend 2 current 6-game winning streaks with the W here. They have currently won 6 games overall and are also currently riding a 6-game winning streak at Chase Field. They have been playing great all-around baseball as of late as over the L14 games, they have averaged over 5 R a game, while their starting pitching has been holding tough with a 3.04 ERA over that span. They come into this game hoping for a strong outing from Saunders, who pitched well his last time out, throwing 7 shutout innings before giving up 2 solo HR in the 8th. That 5-2 victory over COL was his 1st of the season and he has some pretty sub par stats overall so far at 1-5 with a 4.65 ERA so far in 2011. Other the other side, Volstad is looking to get himself on track as he has not received a winning decision in over a month's time. Since that last W he has been miserable, going 0-2 with an ERA well over 5. His last start might have been a positive start though as he gave up 2 R over 6 IP against the Giants. He has struggled a bit in his career against this Arizona team though and comes into the game 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA in 3 career starts against them. However, the trends suggest this game might be a little better pitching duel than you think. Although his ERA may be a bit high against AZ, in the 3 games he has pitched against them, 2 of those games ended up going Under the total. In 2011 in this series the UNDER is already 4-1-1 in games played between these two teams and 5-1-2 in the last 8. Surprisingly, AZ has also been playing Under games at home as of late and are hitting at a 9 to 4 clip for the Under at home in the L13 games. There also is a small trend on the game that is 7-0-1 YTD and suggests that this game will finish under the total. I say roll with the trends and cash in on the UNDER in this game......
CHI WHITE SOX RUN LINE +1.5 (-130) --
Although the CWS were ripped apart by the Blue Jays yesterday and throughout the weekend, this play here presents us with a chance to jump on a team that has completely dominated the RED SOX at Fenway in recent years. The WHITE SOX come into the game having won the L4 games between these teams in BOS and in fact have gone 11-2 in their L13 against BOS in the state of Mass. However, the Red Sox are currently on fire at home themselves and come into the game having won 8 of their L9 in their home park, and for a little insurance they start Lester on the mound in this contest. Lester is seeking his 8th consecutive W himself, and comes into the game having gone 6 IP and giving up 3 H and 0 R against CLE in his last start. However, he has struggled a bit against the White Sox in his career, going 2-2 with a 4.99 ERA in 5 career starts, including last years drubbing of 8 R in 4 IP against them. The White Sox counter with Peavy on the mound and he too has been looking great in his return back from severe shoulder issues that have sidelined him much of the last couple of seasons. He has only faced BOS one time in his career and it came almost 4 years ago while he was with the Padres, but he must find a way to contain a Red Sox offense that has scored 24 R in Lester's L2 starts (59 R overall in his 11 starts). Although BOS comes into this game having won 13 of 16, I think this spot is just too much for Lester to keep his streak alive. There is a trend in play here that has hit for the team on the + RL in 34 of the 54 times it has gone off in the last 2 seasons. I say take the WHITE SOX on the RUN LINE in this one and expect a tight game throughout......
$250 *PRIME PLAYS*
CINCINNATI REDS (-120) --
The Brewers have been absolutely red hot at home this season, but come into the game the 2nd worst team in the MLB on the road as they are 8-17 away from Miller Park in 2011. And they fare even worse against CIN and at the Great American Ballpark in recent memory. The REDS are already 5-1 on the season and have won 7out of their last 8 against the Brew Crew, including a sweep to start out this season in Cincinnati. And they have been just as dominant against MIL at the GAB going 11-1 against MIL at home since the start of the 2010 season. Much like the Brewers hitting woes on the road this season (18 R, .185 team BA on the road this month) they have failed to hit or produce any kind of real offense in this run scoring park as they have averaged just over 3 R a game in those 12 contests in CIN. Narveson gets the start for MIL in this one and hopes to bounce back to his form he had previous to his last start. He was roughed up for 8 H and 6 ER in 3 1/3 innings in his last start, after posting a 1.40 ERA in his previous 3 outings before that. In a 9-5 loss to the Reds in late-April he was tagged for 7 ER in 2 1/3 IP. The Reds meanwhile counter with Wood, who has pitched decently in the month of May so far, posting a 2-0 record with a 3.30 ERA through 5 starts this month. He had gone 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA in his 6 starts in the month of April. He did start his 2011 campaign against the Brewers and was effective throughout, allowing 1 R and 4 H to go with 7 K in 7 IP for the Reds 4-2 victory. The Brewers have been on fire as of late and the Reds have been struggling. The Brewers picked up all those victories at home and are now forced back out on the road against a team that has completely dominated them in recent games. I say stick with what they know and go with the REDS to win this game and get back on track here.......
UNDER 8.5 MIN TWINS @ DET TIGERS (-110) --
The Twins have struggled against the Tigers in recent play, having lost 6 in a row in this series and going 1-7 in their L8 meetings between these two teams in DET. Perhaps, the brightest outlook on the day is the fact that Blackburn is on the mound for them and he enters this game looking for his 4th consecutive victory. For the 2011 season, Blackburn has had a respectable year, posting a 4-4 record to go with a 3.20 ERA so far, but it is during the month of May that he has been lights out for an otherwise dismal Minnesota ball club. In 5 starts in May, Blackburn has gone 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA, which is especially impressive considering how he ended the month of April (0-4 / 6.04 ERA over L4). On Tuesday, he pitched a CG, 4-2 Twins victory, allowing 2 R and 7 H in the game. He has been downright tough to hit on the road over his L3 starts, allowing no more than 1 R in each of those 3 contests. In 2010, he was decent against the Tigers, getting 2 wins at home versus them, but he was rocked for 7 R in 4 IP in a 7-4 loss in his only start in Detroit last year. Penny comes in a little extra rested for the Tigers in this one, as he tossed 3 scoreless innings in his last start before the game was delayed and eventually called against TB. He came into that game off a tough loss to PIT, in which he was tagged for 5 R and 6 H in 5 2/3 IP in the 10-1 PIT win. Prior to that game though, Penny was pitching very well in May, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his first 3 starts of the month. He hopes to return to that form as he faces a Twins team he hasn't pitched against since 2009. Over 3 starts against MIN in his career however, he is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA. I expect these two pitchers to finish off the month of May on a positive note and I look for them to shut down these offenses in this matinée game. There is a trend in play on this game that is hitting for the Under at a clip of about 65% for the season, and I think we have to like those odds. I say take the UNDER in this game..........
DETROIT TIGERS (-145) --
The Twins have struggled against the Tigers in recent play, having lost 6 in a row in this series and going 1-7 in their L8 meetings between these two teams in DET. During their current 5-game winning streak in this series, the Tigers have failed to score 9 R or more only once! The Twins have really struggled to get anything going pitching-wise, offensively, and now even defensively as witnessed by their poor play in recent games and overall on the season. Although Blackburn is the better pitcher of the two, especially right now in the season and in his career, I think Penny puts enough together to again keep the Twins winless in Detroit and in this series. I say go with the Tigers and simply wait for your ticket to cash..........
$100 *ACTION PLAYS*
SAN DIEGO PADRES RUN LINE +1.5 (-130) --
Although the Padres have been abysmal as of late and scored over 3 R in a game for the first time in what seems like forever, I think this might present a good chance to jump on the Padres on the RL here. Hudson has a tendency of struggling against lower quality opponent at times, and despite the fact he has destroyed the Padres in his career, I think the Padres actually play well enough to have a shot at winning this game here. I say at least consider going with SAN DIEGO on the RUN LINE in this one.......
CHI WHITE SOX (+170) --
Although I hate to normally put any type of real money on a huge dogg in a situation such as this, it just seems like this has all the makings of a CWS victory tonight. They have owned the Red Sox in Boston (having won 11 of 13) and have an ace quality pitcher starting opposite Lester in this game. Plus, Lester is going for his 8th consecutive victory and has to lose sometime. Wouldn't it make sense if that time was against a team that is 11-2 against BOS in recent years? I say take a chance with the WHITE SOX to win the game as a huge dog in this one.
There are a couple decent trends in play today, but nothing that would warrant a 10-UNIT play today, so we are laying low a little again today. But we are going to hit them hard and get our week started off right!!! Here are the top plays for today......
$500 *SUPER PRIME PLAYS*
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-180) --
Although this game carries a little bit more juice than I normally like to lay, this game just seems like a for sure casher and it would be foolish not to jump on it and take some of the cashings for ourselves. The Phillies have been red-hot as of late, having won 5 of 6 overall, despite yesterday's stinker to the NYM. Against Washington they have been almost that good as they have won 43 out of the L56 games between these to teams. 43-13!! The Phillies come into the game having won 5 in a row overall against the Nats, and 11 of their L13 when these two teams match-up together. For the Nats, it doesn't look like today is going to get any easier as Halladay is on the hill and has completely dominated them in his career. As if the fact that Halladay has only allowed 5 R in 32 IP in his L4 starts against them wasn't good enough, over his L9 starts against them, he is 9-0 with a 1.49 ERA when he faces their meager lineup. He is 2-0 against them so far this season with a 3-2 win and then later a 7-3 PHI victory. On the other side of the mound, Hernandez looks to try to find some way to win a ballgame after pitching pretty effectively in his last 2 outings and for the most part on the season. For the 2011 campaign so far, he is 3-6 with a 3.71 ERA and last start he was in line for the win after allowing 3 ER in 6 IP, before the bullpen was tagged for 4 runs themselves and lost the game. He has pitched extremely well through 5 home starts in WAS this season as he is 3-2 with a 1.80 ERA in those games. I expect the Phillies to remain hot and get a few runs across against Hernandez before the Nats can do the same to Halladay. This one should be a tight, low-scoring contest, but I say roll with the PHILLIES to win it in the end..........
UNDER 9.5 FLA MARLINS @ AZ DIAMONDBACKS (-110) --
The Diamondbacks are in first place near the end of May?? What? Where did this team come from? They have been on fire as of late, winners of 14 of their L16 and took yet another 3-game set in Houston over the weekend. The Diamondbacks also come into the game looking to extend 2 current 6-game winning streaks with the W here. They have currently won 6 games overall and are also currently riding a 6-game winning streak at Chase Field. They have been playing great all-around baseball as of late as over the L14 games, they have averaged over 5 R a game, while their starting pitching has been holding tough with a 3.04 ERA over that span. They come into this game hoping for a strong outing from Saunders, who pitched well his last time out, throwing 7 shutout innings before giving up 2 solo HR in the 8th. That 5-2 victory over COL was his 1st of the season and he has some pretty sub par stats overall so far at 1-5 with a 4.65 ERA so far in 2011. Other the other side, Volstad is looking to get himself on track as he has not received a winning decision in over a month's time. Since that last W he has been miserable, going 0-2 with an ERA well over 5. His last start might have been a positive start though as he gave up 2 R over 6 IP against the Giants. He has struggled a bit in his career against this Arizona team though and comes into the game 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA in 3 career starts against them. However, the trends suggest this game might be a little better pitching duel than you think. Although his ERA may be a bit high against AZ, in the 3 games he has pitched against them, 2 of those games ended up going Under the total. In 2011 in this series the UNDER is already 4-1-1 in games played between these two teams and 5-1-2 in the last 8. Surprisingly, AZ has also been playing Under games at home as of late and are hitting at a 9 to 4 clip for the Under at home in the L13 games. There also is a small trend on the game that is 7-0-1 YTD and suggests that this game will finish under the total. I say roll with the trends and cash in on the UNDER in this game......
CHI WHITE SOX RUN LINE +1.5 (-130) --
Although the CWS were ripped apart by the Blue Jays yesterday and throughout the weekend, this play here presents us with a chance to jump on a team that has completely dominated the RED SOX at Fenway in recent years. The WHITE SOX come into the game having won the L4 games between these teams in BOS and in fact have gone 11-2 in their L13 against BOS in the state of Mass. However, the Red Sox are currently on fire at home themselves and come into the game having won 8 of their L9 in their home park, and for a little insurance they start Lester on the mound in this contest. Lester is seeking his 8th consecutive W himself, and comes into the game having gone 6 IP and giving up 3 H and 0 R against CLE in his last start. However, he has struggled a bit against the White Sox in his career, going 2-2 with a 4.99 ERA in 5 career starts, including last years drubbing of 8 R in 4 IP against them. The White Sox counter with Peavy on the mound and he too has been looking great in his return back from severe shoulder issues that have sidelined him much of the last couple of seasons. He has only faced BOS one time in his career and it came almost 4 years ago while he was with the Padres, but he must find a way to contain a Red Sox offense that has scored 24 R in Lester's L2 starts (59 R overall in his 11 starts). Although BOS comes into this game having won 13 of 16, I think this spot is just too much for Lester to keep his streak alive. There is a trend in play here that has hit for the team on the + RL in 34 of the 54 times it has gone off in the last 2 seasons. I say take the WHITE SOX on the RUN LINE in this one and expect a tight game throughout......
$250 *PRIME PLAYS*
CINCINNATI REDS (-120) --
The Brewers have been absolutely red hot at home this season, but come into the game the 2nd worst team in the MLB on the road as they are 8-17 away from Miller Park in 2011. And they fare even worse against CIN and at the Great American Ballpark in recent memory. The REDS are already 5-1 on the season and have won 7out of their last 8 against the Brew Crew, including a sweep to start out this season in Cincinnati. And they have been just as dominant against MIL at the GAB going 11-1 against MIL at home since the start of the 2010 season. Much like the Brewers hitting woes on the road this season (18 R, .185 team BA on the road this month) they have failed to hit or produce any kind of real offense in this run scoring park as they have averaged just over 3 R a game in those 12 contests in CIN. Narveson gets the start for MIL in this one and hopes to bounce back to his form he had previous to his last start. He was roughed up for 8 H and 6 ER in 3 1/3 innings in his last start, after posting a 1.40 ERA in his previous 3 outings before that. In a 9-5 loss to the Reds in late-April he was tagged for 7 ER in 2 1/3 IP. The Reds meanwhile counter with Wood, who has pitched decently in the month of May so far, posting a 2-0 record with a 3.30 ERA through 5 starts this month. He had gone 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA in his 6 starts in the month of April. He did start his 2011 campaign against the Brewers and was effective throughout, allowing 1 R and 4 H to go with 7 K in 7 IP for the Reds 4-2 victory. The Brewers have been on fire as of late and the Reds have been struggling. The Brewers picked up all those victories at home and are now forced back out on the road against a team that has completely dominated them in recent games. I say stick with what they know and go with the REDS to win this game and get back on track here.......
UNDER 8.5 MIN TWINS @ DET TIGERS (-110) --
The Twins have struggled against the Tigers in recent play, having lost 6 in a row in this series and going 1-7 in their L8 meetings between these two teams in DET. Perhaps, the brightest outlook on the day is the fact that Blackburn is on the mound for them and he enters this game looking for his 4th consecutive victory. For the 2011 season, Blackburn has had a respectable year, posting a 4-4 record to go with a 3.20 ERA so far, but it is during the month of May that he has been lights out for an otherwise dismal Minnesota ball club. In 5 starts in May, Blackburn has gone 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA, which is especially impressive considering how he ended the month of April (0-4 / 6.04 ERA over L4). On Tuesday, he pitched a CG, 4-2 Twins victory, allowing 2 R and 7 H in the game. He has been downright tough to hit on the road over his L3 starts, allowing no more than 1 R in each of those 3 contests. In 2010, he was decent against the Tigers, getting 2 wins at home versus them, but he was rocked for 7 R in 4 IP in a 7-4 loss in his only start in Detroit last year. Penny comes in a little extra rested for the Tigers in this one, as he tossed 3 scoreless innings in his last start before the game was delayed and eventually called against TB. He came into that game off a tough loss to PIT, in which he was tagged for 5 R and 6 H in 5 2/3 IP in the 10-1 PIT win. Prior to that game though, Penny was pitching very well in May, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his first 3 starts of the month. He hopes to return to that form as he faces a Twins team he hasn't pitched against since 2009. Over 3 starts against MIN in his career however, he is 2-0 with a 5.19 ERA. I expect these two pitchers to finish off the month of May on a positive note and I look for them to shut down these offenses in this matinée game. There is a trend in play on this game that is hitting for the Under at a clip of about 65% for the season, and I think we have to like those odds. I say take the UNDER in this game..........
DETROIT TIGERS (-145) --
The Twins have struggled against the Tigers in recent play, having lost 6 in a row in this series and going 1-7 in their L8 meetings between these two teams in DET. During their current 5-game winning streak in this series, the Tigers have failed to score 9 R or more only once! The Twins have really struggled to get anything going pitching-wise, offensively, and now even defensively as witnessed by their poor play in recent games and overall on the season. Although Blackburn is the better pitcher of the two, especially right now in the season and in his career, I think Penny puts enough together to again keep the Twins winless in Detroit and in this series. I say go with the Tigers and simply wait for your ticket to cash..........
$100 *ACTION PLAYS*
SAN DIEGO PADRES RUN LINE +1.5 (-130) --
Although the Padres have been abysmal as of late and scored over 3 R in a game for the first time in what seems like forever, I think this might present a good chance to jump on the Padres on the RL here. Hudson has a tendency of struggling against lower quality opponent at times, and despite the fact he has destroyed the Padres in his career, I think the Padres actually play well enough to have a shot at winning this game here. I say at least consider going with SAN DIEGO on the RUN LINE in this one.......
CHI WHITE SOX (+170) --
Although I hate to normally put any type of real money on a huge dogg in a situation such as this, it just seems like this has all the makings of a CWS victory tonight. They have owned the Red Sox in Boston (having won 11 of 13) and have an ace quality pitcher starting opposite Lester in this game. Plus, Lester is going for his 8th consecutive victory and has to lose sometime. Wouldn't it make sense if that time was against a team that is 11-2 against BOS in recent years? I say take a chance with the WHITE SOX to win the game as a huge dog in this one.
Most eternal God, we thank you for this great country. We're humbled that in your divine sovereignty we were born or naturalized in such a nation as this. Thank you for those serving and who have served in the military that protect this country of ours. Thank you for those men and women in our military services who were willing to give their lives and who gave their lives to fight to keep this country free.
Amen!
Ben lee won bolth games on Sunday with the Bluejays -$160/White Sox and also the Rangers -$220/Royals.
For Memorial Day "Mr Chalk" likes the Cardnials -145/Giants.
"Mr Chalk" is 32-28 -$1427 for the 2011 MLB regular season.
Thanks bettenguy for all that you and your brothers in arms do to keep this the land of the free.
God bless.
For Memorial Day "Mr Chalk" likes the Cardnials -145/Giants.
"Mr Chalk" is 32-28 -$1427 for the 2011 MLB regular season.
Thanks bettenguy for all that you and your brothers in arms do to keep this the land of the free.
God bless.
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Thanks for those kind words; I am honored to do it. An all volunteer army is a wonderful thing, not everyone can or wants to serve and not being forced to makes the job easier for the ones who do. I really believe that. Our country is great that way; it doesn't speak any less of anyone for not wanting to serve. But today isn't about me or the guys serving, we have our day on November 11th, Veterans Day. Today is for those who gave the ultimate sacrifice and I am humbled to wear the uniform they did, from the Revolutionary War to today. GOD BLESS THOSE HEROES and THERE FAMILYS.
GO GIANTS!!!!! I need a winner
GO GIANTS!!!!! I need a winner
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +109 over Arizona
Despite the D-Backs being on fire, the pitching matchup here heavily favors the Marlins and that makes them a must play. Florida has the best road record in the league at 16-9. Mike Stanton (.979), Gaby Sanchez (.947), Logan Morrison (.915) and Greg Dobbs (.902) all boast OPS’s over .900 this month and they’ll face the extremely hittable Joe Saunders. Juan Miranda (1.029) is the only Diamondback this month with an OPS over .800. In 60 IP, Saunders has walked 27 and struck out 30. At Chase Field, Saunders is 0-2 in five starts with a BAA of .383 and an ERA of 6.26. Chris Volstad showed some upside a few years ago as a green sinkerballer with promising skill flashes, as well as a sub-3.00 ERA in his first 84 IP. He has fallen off the radar in recent years but at age 24, there's still some untapped upside here. Volstad’s xERA of 4.17 is lower than his actual ERA of 5.40 and that’s because of a low strand rate of 64%. The Marlins have won six of his nine starts this year and 10 of his last 13 starts overall. Volstad has faced some damn tough starters over that stretch that include Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, David Price, Hiroki Kuroda, Madison Bumgarner, and Matt Cain. They’ve also played their last two series at Chavez Ravine and AT&T Park in San Fran and after facing some tough pitching at some tough parks they might explode against a garbage pitcher in an extreme hitter’s park. Play: Florida +111 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +123 over CHICAGO
The Doug Davis experiment (or should we say the grasping at straws experiment) didn’t work and now the Cubs are going to plan B. Plan B comes in the name of Rodrigo Lopez, a 35-year-old career stiff that went 7-16 for the Snakes last year and posted an ERA of 4.85. Lopez was in the Braves organization a few days ago when they and the Cubs pulled off a minor-league trade and Lopez was subsequently called up for this start. Other than good control, he doesn't bring anything to the table. And while Lopez’s 2.59 ERA and 44 K in 59 IP at AAA-Gwinnett looks good, his MLB history says he's nothing more than quad-A fodder. Aneury Rodriguez is still seeking his first major league victory but he’s not pitching badly. He has a 2.38 ERA in his last two outings, but the Astros have provided him little support. He’s been given a combined five runs in his five major league starts and his confidence and skills keep getting sharper. The Cubs are just a poor favorite and you can double that at home, where they play sloppy baseball and own a below .500 record. Lastly, the Astros continue to pace the NL in stolen base efficiency, with an 86% success rate (42-for-49). The Cubs have only attempted 17 steals as a team, 10 successfully and with the ability to manufacture runs and with the likelihood of some guys getting on base, the Astros are more appealing here than the Cubs. Play: Houston +123 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee/CINCINNATI Over 9
Ya think the Reds are happy to be home after going 2-8 on their just completed 10 game trip? Cincinnati has won seven of its last nine at Great American and in most of those wins they’ve had to rally from multiple runs down. In any event, the Reds have the most potent offense against left-handed pitching in the league by a wide margin (.880 OPS versus southpaws) and will face one here in Chris Narverson. Narverson was whacked in his last start in Washington. It was Narverson’s second sub four-inning start in his last six starts with the other one being against these same Reds on April 25 in which he surrendered seven runs in 2.1 innings. That was at Miller Park. Narverson’s last three starts show an alarming fly-ball tilt and it would appear that after some moderate success, the hitters have caught up to this career journeyman. Travis Wood is 2-2 at home but he sports an ugly ERA of 6.31. The Brewers certainly have to be sick about hearing how inept they are on the road but they have the second-best OPS over the past week (.774) and even if they lose here, they are likely to score a bunch, just as the Reds are. Play: Milwaukee/Cincinnati over 9 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Texas +107 over TAMPA BAY
Derek Holland has an ERA of 2.51 in his last four road starts. Holland is a true one split away type. He has been fantastic against LH bats and only the amazing 77% GB% vs. LH bats of Brett Anderson is higher than Holland's 69% GB% mark. Against righties that GB mark drops significantly but Holland remains a legit breakout candidate and we’ll gladly take out chances with him against Wade Davis. Davis has some of the worst skills a starting pitcher can have and as soon as the Rays get some healthy starters back, Davis will be headed back down where he belongs. He has a horrible BB/K ratio of 28/30. He has one of the worst GB%/FB% profiles in the majors at 32%/52%. His 3.71 ERA is a complete mirage, as his xERA of 5.71 is more accurate. All his skills, including a 1.67 WHIP of his last four starts does not align with a 3.71 ERA. If the below the surface stats are right and they usually are, the chances of Davis ending up with an ERA under 4.00 and keeping his job are slim and none. Play: Texas +107 (Risking 2 units).
SEATTLE –110 over BALTIMORE
Is there a team in the majors that looked worse over this past weekend than the Orioles? In three games in Oakland, they had one extra base hit and batted .204. It also appears as though they may have lost Adam Jones to an injury and that can’t help either. Fact is, the Orioles looked putrid in Oakland and even in the four-run fifth yesterday it was aided by two walks and a blown call at third on a bunt attempt, otherwise they may not have scored any. They drew 15 walks on the weekend and scored eight runs total with four runs coming in that aforementioned inning. The M’s took two out of three from the Yanks. They’ve won nine of their last 11 games and they’re just 1½-games out of first. We could go into the starting pitchers here but does it really matter? The O’s pen is awful, the offense is awful, their current state of mind is definitely in question and the O’s 24-27 record is a complete and utter fraud. This is a cheap lay on the surging M’s and if you only make one bet today, this should be it. Play: Seattle –110 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +109 over Arizona
Despite the D-Backs being on fire, the pitching matchup here heavily favors the Marlins and that makes them a must play. Florida has the best road record in the league at 16-9. Mike Stanton (.979), Gaby Sanchez (.947), Logan Morrison (.915) and Greg Dobbs (.902) all boast OPS’s over .900 this month and they’ll face the extremely hittable Joe Saunders. Juan Miranda (1.029) is the only Diamondback this month with an OPS over .800. In 60 IP, Saunders has walked 27 and struck out 30. At Chase Field, Saunders is 0-2 in five starts with a BAA of .383 and an ERA of 6.26. Chris Volstad showed some upside a few years ago as a green sinkerballer with promising skill flashes, as well as a sub-3.00 ERA in his first 84 IP. He has fallen off the radar in recent years but at age 24, there's still some untapped upside here. Volstad’s xERA of 4.17 is lower than his actual ERA of 5.40 and that’s because of a low strand rate of 64%. The Marlins have won six of his nine starts this year and 10 of his last 13 starts overall. Volstad has faced some damn tough starters over that stretch that include Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, David Price, Hiroki Kuroda, Madison Bumgarner, and Matt Cain. They’ve also played their last two series at Chavez Ravine and AT&T Park in San Fran and after facing some tough pitching at some tough parks they might explode against a garbage pitcher in an extreme hitter’s park. Play: Florida +111 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +123 over CHICAGO
The Doug Davis experiment (or should we say the grasping at straws experiment) didn’t work and now the Cubs are going to plan B. Plan B comes in the name of Rodrigo Lopez, a 35-year-old career stiff that went 7-16 for the Snakes last year and posted an ERA of 4.85. Lopez was in the Braves organization a few days ago when they and the Cubs pulled off a minor-league trade and Lopez was subsequently called up for this start. Other than good control, he doesn't bring anything to the table. And while Lopez’s 2.59 ERA and 44 K in 59 IP at AAA-Gwinnett looks good, his MLB history says he's nothing more than quad-A fodder. Aneury Rodriguez is still seeking his first major league victory but he’s not pitching badly. He has a 2.38 ERA in his last two outings, but the Astros have provided him little support. He’s been given a combined five runs in his five major league starts and his confidence and skills keep getting sharper. The Cubs are just a poor favorite and you can double that at home, where they play sloppy baseball and own a below .500 record. Lastly, the Astros continue to pace the NL in stolen base efficiency, with an 86% success rate (42-for-49). The Cubs have only attempted 17 steals as a team, 10 successfully and with the ability to manufacture runs and with the likelihood of some guys getting on base, the Astros are more appealing here than the Cubs. Play: Houston +123 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee/CINCINNATI Over 9
Ya think the Reds are happy to be home after going 2-8 on their just completed 10 game trip? Cincinnati has won seven of its last nine at Great American and in most of those wins they’ve had to rally from multiple runs down. In any event, the Reds have the most potent offense against left-handed pitching in the league by a wide margin (.880 OPS versus southpaws) and will face one here in Chris Narverson. Narverson was whacked in his last start in Washington. It was Narverson’s second sub four-inning start in his last six starts with the other one being against these same Reds on April 25 in which he surrendered seven runs in 2.1 innings. That was at Miller Park. Narverson’s last three starts show an alarming fly-ball tilt and it would appear that after some moderate success, the hitters have caught up to this career journeyman. Travis Wood is 2-2 at home but he sports an ugly ERA of 6.31. The Brewers certainly have to be sick about hearing how inept they are on the road but they have the second-best OPS over the past week (.774) and even if they lose here, they are likely to score a bunch, just as the Reds are. Play: Milwaukee/Cincinnati over 9 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Texas +107 over TAMPA BAY
Derek Holland has an ERA of 2.51 in his last four road starts. Holland is a true one split away type. He has been fantastic against LH bats and only the amazing 77% GB% vs. LH bats of Brett Anderson is higher than Holland's 69% GB% mark. Against righties that GB mark drops significantly but Holland remains a legit breakout candidate and we’ll gladly take out chances with him against Wade Davis. Davis has some of the worst skills a starting pitcher can have and as soon as the Rays get some healthy starters back, Davis will be headed back down where he belongs. He has a horrible BB/K ratio of 28/30. He has one of the worst GB%/FB% profiles in the majors at 32%/52%. His 3.71 ERA is a complete mirage, as his xERA of 5.71 is more accurate. All his skills, including a 1.67 WHIP of his last four starts does not align with a 3.71 ERA. If the below the surface stats are right and they usually are, the chances of Davis ending up with an ERA under 4.00 and keeping his job are slim and none. Play: Texas +107 (Risking 2 units).
SEATTLE –110 over BALTIMORE
Is there a team in the majors that looked worse over this past weekend than the Orioles? In three games in Oakland, they had one extra base hit and batted .204. It also appears as though they may have lost Adam Jones to an injury and that can’t help either. Fact is, the Orioles looked putrid in Oakland and even in the four-run fifth yesterday it was aided by two walks and a blown call at third on a bunt attempt, otherwise they may not have scored any. They drew 15 walks on the weekend and scored eight runs total with four runs coming in that aforementioned inning. The M’s took two out of three from the Yanks. They’ve won nine of their last 11 games and they’re just 1½-games out of first. We could go into the starting pitchers here but does it really matter? The O’s pen is awful, the offense is awful, their current state of mind is definitely in question and the O’s 24-27 record is a complete and utter fraud. This is a cheap lay on the surging M’s and if you only make one bet today, this should be it. Play: Seattle –110 (Risking 2 units).
