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hawaii in Sydney
2016 NCAA Football Week 1 Predictions and Analysis
CALIFORNIA 20 HAWAII (63)
Vegas projected score: Cal 41.5 Hawaii 21.5
Megalocks line: California 17
The Game
A college football game. In one of our favorite places on earth. Let’s roll !
The College Football Sydney Cup kicks off the college football season on Friday night 10 pm ET, but of course, that translates to a noon Saturday kickoff in Sydney, Australia. This is the third college football game to be held in Australia, but the first of the three to be held outside of Melbourne.
The Match-Up
Cal offense vs Hawaii defense
The Golden Bears enter this match-up with a lot of new faces. Most importantly, they need to replace this year’s #1 overall NFL draft pick QB Jared Goff. They will also be without their top six (!) leading tacklers from last season as well as their top six receivers. We feel that the offense should be fine, but we are not as sure about the defense.
The new Cal QB is a very experienced Davis Webb who threw for well over 5,000 yards and 46 TDs in his time at Texas Tech. This offense will be something Webb is used to operating in. The only question is how quickly he gets on the same page with his wide receivers. The WRs may lack experience but they are not short on speed and raw talent. We think that Cal can be sharp in their first game as we like having a quality senior like Webb leading the way. Hawaii’s pass defense was awful last season and they only managed to come up with 3 interceptions all season. All four starters in the secondary are new. Uh oh.
The underrated part of the Cal offense may be the running game. Their top-3 RBs all return this season and last year the Golden Bears averaged 4.5 yards per carry as a team. Hawaii is going to miss star DL Kennedy Tulimasealii and his 18.5 TFL (!) and 8 QB hurries in a major way. Leading tackler from 2015 Julian Gener (13 TFL) also needs to be replaced. Overall, that is a lot of talent and PENETRATION that Hawaii is going to be without in this game.
It seems to us that Cal should be able to do whatever they want in this contest. The only question is how rusty they are in the first game of the season.
Hawaii offense vs Cal defense
New HC Nick Rolovich wants to open up the offense and develop a more potent passing attack. We are not sure that the personnel matches up in that regard. Hawaii has a 1,000 yard rusher in Paul Harris, and Diocemy Saint Juste looked really good in camp. The offense line returns 4/5 starters. It certainly feels like Hawaii can have success on the ground should they choose to emphasize the running game. Cal gave up over 200 yards rushing per game last season.
Senior QB Ikaika Woolsey has an experienced group of WRs to throw to, however, Woolsey only completed 49% of his passes last season and threw 5 TD vs 6 INT in limited action. In a full season in 2014 he had the following stat line (2,538, 13 TD 13 INT, 50.5%). In a nutshell, we do not see a ton of upside when it comes to MATRICULATING down the field consistently in the passing game. Cal has some decent players in the secondary as well.
So it appears that Hawaii’s best chance would be to run the ball. Then run it some more. However, we are not sure how they are going to call the game on offense. Should be interesting.
Tasty Tidbits
Cal has allowed 20+ points in 11 straight games dating back to last season….Nick Rolovich is one of 18 current FBS head coaches to lead their alma mater……Hawaii plays at Michigan on Sept 3rd #AirMiles……Hawaii is 1-23 in their last 24 games on National TV – their victory ? – last year’s MEGALOCKS 89,780 STAR ISLAND LOCK STEAM PLAY against Colorado in week one…..Sydney is 17 hours ahead of Pacific time….Make sure to yell “By Jingoes !” when you see an amazing catch – that is “an exclamation of surprise” down under.
Summary
We see some perceived value in taking the ton of points that are being offered. It is the first game of the season, in Australia, and who knows which team is most prepared and hungry to come out with a win ?
This looks like a bad match-up for the Hawaii defense. If Cal comes out and looks sharp and crisp on offense, it is going to be a long day. We do not see Hawaii generating much pressure on the QB, and as a result, their secondary will likely be exposed to a lot of big plays. If we knew Hawaii had a more traditional offensive philosophy you might be able to make the case that they could run the ball and play keep-away. We just do not have enough certainty regarding the Hawaii game plan.
Conclusion
We are taking a pass on this game. No doubt we will be watching and “firing up some shrimp on the barbie, mate !” THREE CHEERS for AUSTRALIA.
hawaii in Sydney
2016 NCAA Football Week 1 Predictions and Analysis
CALIFORNIA 20 HAWAII (63)
Vegas projected score: Cal 41.5 Hawaii 21.5
Megalocks line: California 17
The Game
A college football game. In one of our favorite places on earth. Let’s roll !
The College Football Sydney Cup kicks off the college football season on Friday night 10 pm ET, but of course, that translates to a noon Saturday kickoff in Sydney, Australia. This is the third college football game to be held in Australia, but the first of the three to be held outside of Melbourne.
The Match-Up
Cal offense vs Hawaii defense
The Golden Bears enter this match-up with a lot of new faces. Most importantly, they need to replace this year’s #1 overall NFL draft pick QB Jared Goff. They will also be without their top six (!) leading tacklers from last season as well as their top six receivers. We feel that the offense should be fine, but we are not as sure about the defense.
The new Cal QB is a very experienced Davis Webb who threw for well over 5,000 yards and 46 TDs in his time at Texas Tech. This offense will be something Webb is used to operating in. The only question is how quickly he gets on the same page with his wide receivers. The WRs may lack experience but they are not short on speed and raw talent. We think that Cal can be sharp in their first game as we like having a quality senior like Webb leading the way. Hawaii’s pass defense was awful last season and they only managed to come up with 3 interceptions all season. All four starters in the secondary are new. Uh oh.
The underrated part of the Cal offense may be the running game. Their top-3 RBs all return this season and last year the Golden Bears averaged 4.5 yards per carry as a team. Hawaii is going to miss star DL Kennedy Tulimasealii and his 18.5 TFL (!) and 8 QB hurries in a major way. Leading tackler from 2015 Julian Gener (13 TFL) also needs to be replaced. Overall, that is a lot of talent and PENETRATION that Hawaii is going to be without in this game.
It seems to us that Cal should be able to do whatever they want in this contest. The only question is how rusty they are in the first game of the season.
Hawaii offense vs Cal defense
New HC Nick Rolovich wants to open up the offense and develop a more potent passing attack. We are not sure that the personnel matches up in that regard. Hawaii has a 1,000 yard rusher in Paul Harris, and Diocemy Saint Juste looked really good in camp. The offense line returns 4/5 starters. It certainly feels like Hawaii can have success on the ground should they choose to emphasize the running game. Cal gave up over 200 yards rushing per game last season.
Senior QB Ikaika Woolsey has an experienced group of WRs to throw to, however, Woolsey only completed 49% of his passes last season and threw 5 TD vs 6 INT in limited action. In a full season in 2014 he had the following stat line (2,538, 13 TD 13 INT, 50.5%). In a nutshell, we do not see a ton of upside when it comes to MATRICULATING down the field consistently in the passing game. Cal has some decent players in the secondary as well.
So it appears that Hawaii’s best chance would be to run the ball. Then run it some more. However, we are not sure how they are going to call the game on offense. Should be interesting.
Tasty Tidbits
Cal has allowed 20+ points in 11 straight games dating back to last season….Nick Rolovich is one of 18 current FBS head coaches to lead their alma mater……Hawaii plays at Michigan on Sept 3rd #AirMiles……Hawaii is 1-23 in their last 24 games on National TV – their victory ? – last year’s MEGALOCKS 89,780 STAR ISLAND LOCK STEAM PLAY against Colorado in week one…..Sydney is 17 hours ahead of Pacific time….Make sure to yell “By Jingoes !” when you see an amazing catch – that is “an exclamation of surprise” down under.
Summary
We see some perceived value in taking the ton of points that are being offered. It is the first game of the season, in Australia, and who knows which team is most prepared and hungry to come out with a win ?
This looks like a bad match-up for the Hawaii defense. If Cal comes out and looks sharp and crisp on offense, it is going to be a long day. We do not see Hawaii generating much pressure on the QB, and as a result, their secondary will likely be exposed to a lot of big plays. If we knew Hawaii had a more traditional offensive philosophy you might be able to make the case that they could run the ball and play keep-away. We just do not have enough certainty regarding the Hawaii game plan.
Conclusion
We are taking a pass on this game. No doubt we will be watching and “firing up some shrimp on the barbie, mate !” THREE CHEERS for AUSTRALIA.
