March Madness! The fallacy of "flattening the curve". Shutting down the economy and disrupting our way of life to protect 20% of the population is co

[PatsFan1283]

The virus would likely spread under that scenario and self-quarantining doesn't work if you need ICU access because you're in excruciating pain. I don't see how there is a scenario where our hospital system wouldn't get overwhelmed besides France style shutdown. I wish I was wrong but feels like we're too far behind the curve. Would take an incredible amount of complex coordination with how fast it is spreading.

Maybe next time when/if we're more prepared for this.

Guess it is all just hypothetical anyway given we seem to be on the precipice of France style shutdown.

I don't want to live in a police state, I just really haven't seen any other country do anything else that works.

 

[stock07]

What about this don't you like? You will still get to sit home and post here, plus more to argue about, in truth I think you're overjoyed as this has added to your life.
Sorry for being blunt, but ur whole "I don't vote because I don't like Trump or anyone else and my vote doesn't count and I hope trump wins in a landslide" broke me on you...

The guy is a moron...

He got his ass handed to him when Lamar Jackson smashed his way through the regular season on his way to the league MVP...

enflameo disappeared for weeks because he was so embarrassed and couldn't win his argument... He reappeared the day the Ravens lost in the playoffs...

Now this clown is out here flip flopping giving everyone health advice and telling us all about our political system...blah blah blah

Yet he is in terrible shape and doesn't even vote!!

 

[SheriffJoe]

Not to mention that a lot of these older people are the owners, bosses, managers ect of many companies. Heck the president is an elderly man along with many people in our government and I don't really know of anyone that is 65 plus that isn't taking medication for something....So are the rules just going to pertain to the public but not our public servants?

Presumably, these owners, bosses, managers etc. are self-made, self-sufficient successful individuals who can intelligently weigh the risks and make their own decisions. Or are you suggesting they are too stupid and need Big Daddy government to save them from themselves?

As I said, the ones with the highest risk will behave the most rationally, and therefore the easiest to quarantine.

The rest don't have to. I know that's cringe-worthy for anyone with totalitarian impulses to hear, but it's the truth.

Unless you honestly believe the Gavin Newsom approach will "flatten the curve"?

Good luck with that. It's working brilliantly across Europe.

 

[SheriffJoe]

The virus would likely spread under that scenario and self-quarantining doesn't work if you need ICU access because you're in excruciating pain. I don't see how there is a scenario where our hospital system wouldn't get overwhelmed besides France style shutdown. I wish I was wrong but feels like we're too far behind the curve. Would take an incredible amount of complex coordination with how fast it is spreading.

Maybe next time when/if we're more prepared for this.

Guess it is all just hypothetical anyway given we seem to be on the precipice of France style shutdown.

I don't want to live in a police state, I just really haven't seen any other country do anything else that works.

The virus is going to cycle over the next 1-2 months, regardless whether the govt shutdowns the country or not. Italy is in full shutdown and the number of cases are skyrocketing.

Not that it matters, the only metric people should care about is # of deaths.

 

[Ricboff]

Only 20% of the population needs to quarantine. The other 80% don't need or want to. 20% of the population is more manageable than 100%, unless you want to live in a police state. We don't need to impose curfews and call in the national guard like a horrifying scene out of the movie Contagion. That's crazy and counterproductive.

1) For "high risk" individuals, self-quarantine for 2-3 months while the virus cycles and have friends and family bring food to their door, ring the bell, leave - little to no contact. There are church groups already doing this. For those who need outside assistance, local govts can set up volunteer networks assisting the elderly and infirm. Thousands upon thousands of people across the country will sign up as volunteers. This is the easiest group to quarantine because they know their lives depend on it.

2) For people with ANY symptoms, no matter what category they fall into, stay home and self-quarantine. Common sense, whether it's Corona or something else. Right now the system is set up to encourage people to rush out to soon-to-be overwhelmed hospitals and testing centers which will infect everyone they come into contact with. Again, recklessly stupid!

3) People who get sick to the point they need a respirator or whatever are hospitalized and treated.

80% of the population doesn't need or want to quarantine.

This virus isn't the "big picture", the economy is. Look at Italy.

It's not rocket science.

Quarantine the "high risk" category, for the rest it's business as usual.

yupper



this is what the California govenor largely just said; from another forum

'California just directed all people over 65 years old to stay home. Full stop.

It also closed all bars, wineries etc, and mandates that restaurants run at half capacity or less, and enforce social distancing.

Essentially, he said that the workforce can continue to be productive, but he wants to protect the vulnerable population.'





need to be sensible, YA CANT shut down the economy for an extended period without massive damage (a system already over levered) , in fact its more dangerous than the fuckin virus. Slippery slope, careful..

most folks living paycheck to paycheck.....stop that paycheck for 3 months and how does this picture look?


hysteria is full blown, folks calling 911 ' .."'i thikn i got the virus , i'm coughing!!"

 

[ERockMoney]

The 80/20 represents the severity of cases that have been researched to date, not an individuals risk profile. 80% of people who contract the virus will have mild to moderate symptoms and not require any medical assistance while recovering in self-quarantine. 20% of people who contract the virus will have severe to critical symptoms and possibly require some level of medical treatment.

The at-risk population within the US isn’t 20%, it’s likely triple that figure when factoring in the elderly population and the non-elderly population of those with heart disease, cardiovascular issues, diabetes, respiratory issues, existing neoplasms, etc. Obviously, some of the high risk individuals won’t contract the virus at all, some will fall into the 80% with minimal symptoms and some into the 20% with more severe symptoms.

 

[Illini]

The death rate in Italy is currently 7% and climbing. It isn’t just old people that are at risk. This sucks big time, but we have no choice but to treat this seriously.

 

[JackStraw77]

Start at 2:47 from the movie Three Days of The Condor. The Robert Redford thriller. This is ending when Cliff Robertson telling Robert Redford what the government would do in the event of a crisis. It's chilling, the ending comes out of today's headlines.

 

[StevieRay]

Wonder if true?

[FONT=&quot]Jan 28, 2020. Federal agents arrested Dr. Charles Lieber, chair of Harvard University’s Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, with lying to the Department of Defense about secret monthly payments of $50,000 paid by China and receipt of millions more to help set up a chemical/biological “Research “ laboratory in China. Also arrested were two “Chinese” students working as research assistants, one of whom were actually a lieutenant in the Chinese Army, the other captured at Logan Airport as he was trying to catch a flight to China — smuggling 21 vials of “Sensitive Biological Samples according to the FBI. The research lab that the good professor had set up? It’s located in the Wuhan University of Technology. Wuhan China is ground zero to the potentially deadly pandemic known as the “Coronavirus” which is both spreading rapidly and killing people. It has barely made the news.[/FONT]

 

[Ricboff]

.......households cant be out of work for too long, .....slippery slope.....


what will soverign deficits look like? .....

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/hou...-in-12-years-federal-reserve-report-says.html

wriiten Feb 11, 2020


Household debt jumps the most in 12 years, Federal Reserve report says

• Total household debt balances rose by $601 billion last year, according to the Federal Reserve.
• Total household debt balances surpassed $14 trillion for the first time.
• The level of household debt service as a percentage of disposable personal income is at all-time lows going back to 1980.

 

[Bull24]

Yikes...Yeah it is unfortunate that the Basketball tournament is going on. But I think its very logical to protect all public when '20% of the population' is at risk of death and/or illness that could kill others around. C'mon! Was this post honestly written by a living human being. RIDICULOUS

 

[SheriffJoe]

Yikes...Yeah it is unfortunate that the Basketball tournament is going on. But I think its very logical to protect all public when '20% of the population' is at risk of death and/or illness that could kill others around. C'mon! Was this post honestly written by a living human being. RIDICULOUS

No, it's not logical at all.

Plunging the world into a global depression over a virus that kills less than 2% of those infected is like killing termites by burning down your house.

This virus is not going away after 30, 60 or however many days of "social isolation" and we'll probably get hit by the second wave in the fall once flu season is upon us yet again. Then what? Are we going to go through this all over again?

 

[SheriffJoe]

• WUHAN VIRUS

<header class="entry-header">‘Flattening The Curve’ Has Become A Massive Bait And Switch

Everything 'flattening the curve' represented has been abandoned and now thousands have needlessly died, millions are out of work, and cities are burning.</header>

By Karl Dierenbach

JUNE 29, 2020

​

At one point, the theory of “flattening the curve” was ubiquitous. The basic concept was that lockdowns could slow the spread of coronavirus, and this was of great importance since, as we were told at the time, “We can’t stop this virus.” The narrative went that if the virus were to spread unchecked, hospitals would be overwhelmed and both people with coronavirus and those needing medical attention for other ailments would die from the lack of access to care.

It all made sense. To a certain extent, it still does. Most graphics depicting flattening the curve, such as in The New York Times, showed two curves. Typically, the first was associated with no lockdowns that peaked well above the capacity of the health-care system, while the second, “flattened” curve was associated with lockdowns with its peak hovering near capacity. The areas under each curve, representing the total number of Covid-19 infections, were roughly equal.


Flattening the curve made two assumptions. First, it assumed that a certain amount of deaths and infections were inevitable and the best we could do was delay the process. No one promoting flattening the curve talked of stopping the disease; there were no graphs showing that if we locked down, infections would go straight to zero.

Second, flattening the curve was always shown with the same level of flattening: just enough to not overwhelm the health-care system. This was a tacit admission that flattening the curve would be painful and that it would not be beneficial to flatten the curve beyond the level needed to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system.

Flattening the curve was the bait. Next came the switch.

It didn’t take long for the “flattening the curve” storyline to be abandoned. For example, California had more than 26,000 hospital beds available for coronavirus patients, but they locked down when they had about 200 coronavirus hospitalizations on March 20. That was less than 1 percent of their coronavirus hospital capacity. It quickly became clear that the California hospital system was not under threat, yet the lockdowns remained and “flatten the curve” was abandoned in favor of “suppress at all costs.”

To this day, there are states that locked down during the initial flurry of panic and remain locked down despite the lack of any true threat to hospital capacity. At its peak, Colorado had 888 coronavirus patients in hospitals. As of June 24, that number is 134 and has dropped near-continuously since April 23, yet the governor is removing restrictions slowly and schools are contemplating remote learning for the fall.

The narrative of flattening the curve was almost silently replaced with “lockdowns save lives.” Many early shutdowns resulted in over-suppression, which meant any subsequent opening would be accompanied by an increase in cases and hospitalizations.

Yet, since the flatten-the-curve notion that infections were inevitable has been abandoned, any uptick in cases is now spun by most of the media as apocalyptic. This can be seen in Florida, where cases are surging and ABC, CNN, and CBS all frequently report record numbers of cases. This ignores the fact that Florida has more hospital beds available now for potential patients than before the pandemic started.

This curious phenomenon isn’t confined to the United States but has played out all over the world. New Zealand started talking of flattening the curve, but quickly enacted aggressive lockdowns and managed to stop the virus. Now, however, they are in a situation where they can open up internally, but because of their lack of immunity, the entire country must remain isolated from the rest of the world.

The greatest tragedy associated with abandoning flattening the curve to suppress at all costs is the massive number of non-coronavirus deaths that are a direct result of the lockdowns. The New York Times found that almost one-third of the excess deaths in New York and New Jersey were not from coronavirus. It’s almost impossible to make a reasonable estimate at this point, but my calculations put this number around 30,000.

Flattening the curve was sound logic when it was originally presented, and remains so today. That’s why so many people across the political spectrum originally bought into the idea. The change from flatten-the-curve to stop-the-virus-at-all-costs, however, has been a disaster. More than 40 million people have lost their jobs. The related angst and associated lack of social opportunities created a dry forest that exploded in flames when George Floyd was killed. Moreover, deaths of despair and child abuse are both likely rising as a result.

We must reject the largest, most destructive bait and switch ever enacted and return to the principles of flattening the curve. We must accept that nature can be brutal and more infections will happen. Yet we must push through. We must strive to reopen our society as much as possible and only implement mitigation efforts to the extent needed to avoid a clearly imminent threat of overwhelming hospitals.

Karl Dierenbach is an engineer-turned-attorney living outside Denver, Colorado. He is active in local politics and has authored articles on state politics in Colorado and on national political issues.

 

[SheriffJoe]

No, it's not logical at all.

Plunging the world into a global depression over a virus that kills less than 2% of those infected is like killing termites by burning down your house.

This virus is not going away after 30, 60 or however many days of "social isolation" and we'll probably get hit by the second wave in the fall once flu season is upon us yet again. Then what? Are we going to go through this all over again?

What a colossal waste of time and resources.

We've all been scammed. :>(

 

[rolltide]

Fauci this morning singled out New York as a state that responded "really well" with their Covid response.

shall i repeat that?

 

[rush__man]

Undercover Epicenter Nurse blows the lid off the COVID-19 pandemic.

What would you do if you discovered that the media and the government were lying to us all? And that millions of people were dying because of it?

Combat veteran and nurse Erin Olszewski’s most deeply-held values were put to the test when she arrived as a travel nurse at Elmhurst Hospital in the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. After serving years in Iraq, she was back on the frontlines—and this time, she found, the situation was even worse.

Rooms were filthy, nurses were lax with sanitation measures, and hospital-acquired cases of COVID-19 were spreading like wildfire.

Worse, people who had tested negative multiple times for COVID-19 were being labeled as COVID-confirmed and put on COVID-only floors. Put on ventilators and drugged up with sedatives, these patients quickly deteriorated—even though they did not have coronavirus when they checked in.

Doctors-in-training were refusing to perform CPR—and banning nurses from doing it—on dying patients whose families had not consented to “Do Not Resuscitate” orders.

The malpractice and corruption were out of control, and all because the hospital was getting a payday for every diagnosed patient.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIDsKdeFOmQ