March Madness selection MY pool picks

[ACE-ACE]

Sup Ace! I'm currently tied for fifth in the office pool. I should be doing better, but ND lost because of a lane violation and ST Mary lost because of an out of bounds travel

The good news is I'm the only one w/ all elite eight teams still alive so I still have a chance! (I followed all your plays except for Wich st over Kentucky.

good job...out of the 231 in my pool...only 21 has Mich st winning the dance...so I still have hope.

Ace

 

[RobinsonRookie]

It's that time of year again! Looking forward to your bracket ACE!

 

[ACE-ACE]

1 point........2 points.........4 pts.......8 pts......16 pts......32 pts
louis...............Louis...........Louis.........louis
col st
Orgeon
st Louis.........st l
mem
mich st...........mich st.........mich st
Cin.................cin
Duke

Gonz
pit................pit
Wis...............Wis.................Wis
Kan st
Belmont
n.Mex.............N.Mex
Iowa st
Ohio st...........Ohio st...........Ohio st.......Ohio st......Ohio st......winner Ohio st

kan...............kan.................kan
Villan
Vcu
mich.................mich
Min
Fla.................Fla.................Fla...............Fla............Fla
sd st
G town............G town

Ind...............Ind.................Ind................Ind
temple
Unlv..............Unlv
Syr
Bucknell
daivdson..........daivd
Col
Mia.................Mia...............Mia


2013 bracket

 

[ACE-ACE]

[h=1]How Sharps Are Betting Thursday's NCAA Games[/h]

GAMES IN LEXINGTON

BUCKNELL VS. BUTLER
Very interesting dynamic in play here because sentiment is split amongst the sharps. Places showing Butler -4 are getting hit with Bucknell money. Some of that was so strong that a few locales experimented with Butler -3 only to get pounded on Butler. Stores sitting at Butler -3.5 are generally seeing more favorite money. The public hasn’t been betting this game yet. So we have a tug-of-war between different sharp groups on Butler -3.5 and Bucknell +4.

DAVIDSON VS. MARQUETTE
Davidson is the most popular darkhorse choice amongst sharps. Oddsmakers had anticipated that, making Marquette only -3.5 of -4 on the opener even though this is a #3 seed playing a #14 seed. Sharps hit Davidson anyway…and the line is down to Marquette -3 at most locales as we go to press.

NORTH CAROLINA A&T VS. LOUISVILLE
This game was late to go up because NC A&T had to win a play-in game over Liberty Tuesday Night to qualify for the right to lose to Louisville in Kentucky! The Cardinals opened offshore at -26. First money to hit was on the underdog…following the tendency in recent years for sharps to bet the #16 seeds vs. the #1’s for value because it’s been a money-making play.

MISSOURI VS. COLORADO STATE
Missouri has been getting respect from sharps in recent weeks, though they haven’t really lived up to that enthusiasm on the floor outside of their home state. Sharps thought highly of Missouri before they lost to Ole Miss in the SEC semifinals last week. Most places opened Missouri at -2 or -2.5…only to see Missouri money drive that line up to -3. To this point, we haven’t seen money come in yet on the Mountain West underdog, which is a bit of a surprise. Sharps appear to have soured on CSU in recent days at the expense of others from that local (to Vegas) conference. Sharps like Missouri at less than three in this one.


GAMES IN AUBURN HILLS

VALPARAISO VS. MICHIGAN STATE
Openers at less than Michigan State -10.5 were driven to that number, where it’s been pretty stable for awhile as we post this. We’re hearing that a few sharp groups would come in on Valpo at +11. Remember that both Michigan State and Michigan are playing in their home state this weekend. Sharps who preferred the favorite knew they had to bet quickly because the public generally likes high profile favorites playing in front of big crowds. There’s an expectation that Thursday morning will see a market tug-of-war between the numbers of 10.5 and 11 as squares back the favorite and sharps take the full 11 with the underdog.

ST. MARY’S VS. MEMPHIS
This was another late arrival to sharp betting because the matchup wasn’t determined until Tuesday Night and a line didn’t go up until midday ET Wednesday. Different places had different teams as favorites of 1 to 1.5…only to see betting action drive the lines to pick-em. Openers with Memphis as slight chalk drew St. Mary’s money. Openers with St. Mary’s as slight chalk drew Memphis money. We can deduce from that sharp sentiment sees this as a true pick-em game. Squares may take Memphis on game day because it’s a #6 playing a #11, and they’ll have trouble believing that should be pick-em. A possible tug-of-war brewing between squares betting the seeds and sharps betting a St. Mary’s team they’ve respected all year.

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE VS. MICHIGAN
Not much betting action here. Sharps respect this dangerous dog, but they also know Michigan is playing in friendly territory. Openers came slightly above 11…and were bet down to what’s been a very solid Michigan -11 ever since. If the public comes in on Michigan as a known team playing in friendly territory, sharps would fade any line moves that direction with underdog support. We’re hearing from a few sources that sharps are fairly strong on South Dakota State…but are waiting until close to tip-off to see what they can get before unloading. That’s worth remembering in any game Thursday and Friday with a favorite from one of the TV conferences. A relative lack of action from sharps doesn’t mean lack of interest. It could mean extreme interest tempered by wise patience.

AKRON VS. VCU
VCU was pounded at the earliest spots that opened them at -6 or -6.5. Later places opened at -7, and were STILL hit with VCU money. The number has reached as high as -8. Some locales are still there as of press time…but Akron money is hitting other places at the eight…causing some places to post VCU -7.5 Why the intense sharp interest early? As Doug Gottlieb mentioned on the selection show…VCU runs a great full court press and Akron’s point guard was kicked off the team after an arrest! Sharps who were thinking along those same lines knew they had to bet early since Gottlieb made the public aware of that potential edge. Sharps have laid anything less than eight. They stopped betting VCU at the eight. Akron money is starting to hit at what’s presumed to be the apex.

GAMES IN SALT LAKE CITY

WICHITA STATE VS. PITTSBURGH
To this point, sharps have bet Wichita State +5, and Pittsburgh -4. Most places were settling in at 4.5 as a result. But, as of press time more Wichita State money started coming in at +4.5. That’s setting up what looks to be a tug-of-war between different sharp syndicates with the favorite at -4 but the underdog at +4.5. The public is going to bet Pittsburgh if they’re going to be involved in the game. Though, it is one of the early tipoffs which lessens the time square money can influence the price. Sharps acting at +4.5 were skeptical they would see a +5 before tipoff.

SOUTHERN VS. GONZAGA
We talked earlier about the tendency for sharps to bet all the #16 seeds at high prices based solely on principal. That was in play here as most stores are showing Gonzaga at -21.5 after opening higher than that. You may not have the stomach to bet on teams you’ve never heard of. Sharps have been doing this for years, and are looking at expected value over 10 and 20 year periods with this strategy.

BELMONT VS. ARIZONA
The earliest offshore places saw Belmont money come in at openers of +5 of +4.5. Later places tried to anticipate sentiment by opening as low as Belmont +3.5…only to see Arizona money come in. For awhile, that solidified everything on the four. But, in the hours leading up to publication, Arizona money has been coming in at -4. Arizona has been getting respect from the markets all season (clearly TOO MUCH respect during Pac 12 play). Belmont was a sharp darling in the Dance the last two seasons only to get crushed by Wisconsin and Georgetown. Different syndicates are looking at Arizona -4 or Belmont +4.5. If the public bets the well-known favorite, Belmont backers will be very happy to take +5 or better before tip-off. Part of Wednesday’s move to -4.5 can be seen as sharps anticipating how the squares are going to bet on Thursday.

HARVARD VS. NEW MEXICO
Action has really centered on lucky 11. We’re seeing New Mexico as a solid -11 everywhere right now. Places who tested 11.5 saw underdog money coming in. Places who tested 10.5 saw favorite money come in. Sharps think 11 is the right line. Though, we may have some hidden support for the dog that’s waiting to see if the public drives the number higher in this very late tip-off. New Mexico isn’t much of a public team. But, this is such a late start that square money could hit the favorite in the hours leading up to tipoff…particularly if squares won their day bets and are re-investing.

GAMES IN SAN JOSE

NEW MEXICO STATE VS. SAINT LOUIS
Interesting dynamic here. Saint Louis was getting a lot of darkhorse press as a mid-major that could go very deep in the Dance. Anticipating betting action in that light, the earliest offshore places made the Billikens -10 or -9.5. Sharps hit the dog at that number, leading to a fairly solid Saint Louis -9 for a lengthy period. Then more money came in on the dog…inspiring some places to test Saint Louis -8.5. We’re hearing that some sharps are betting the theory that favorites who have to travel out the Far West have trouble, particularly if they’re the first tip of the day at their site. In this case, Saint Louis had to play Sunday in Brooklyn New York, only to find themselves in a first-tip spot Thursday on the other coast.

OREGON VS. OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma State by 3 seems to be the magic number here. Openers below that got bet up to the three. Forays up to -3.5 have been bet back down. We’re seeing a solid three as of press time. Because the public usually bets favorites, we may have a tug-of-war between Okie State -3 and -3.5 before tipoff, with squares on the favorite and sharps on the dog.

CALIFORNIA VS. UNLV
This one’s been bet like a football game as well, except the forays have been down to UNLV -2.5 instead of up over football’s key number. Sharps who like the dog are hitting Cal at +3. Sharps (and locals) who want UNLV are laying -2.5. This could be a very high action game since it’s an evening tip-off and Vegas is full of fans from both states involved.

MONTANA VS. SYRACUSE
The earliest offshore action was centered around the -13.5 to -14 range for favored Syracuse. But, then dog money came in very strong just before the mainland posted numbers. Vegas would open more around -13…and we’re currently seeing Montana +12.5 in most stores, with +12 getting tested. Syracuse is another team that played on the East Coast last weekend (four games in four days ending Saturday Night) that must now play in California. They at least have the final start of the day. Montana is missing a top player due to injury, but is still seen as a live dog by many sharps because Syracuse could be out of gas.

 

[dpnuggs]

Hi Ace, it's that time of year again. Got anything for us?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hi Ace, it's that time of year again. Got anything for us?

Have something on Wednesday

 

[dpnuggs]

Have something on Wednesday

Thanks Ace. Looking forward to it.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Every year I get into a contest that cost $100
Prize 70% for 1st
20% for 2nd
10% for 3rd

should get 300 to 400 players


6 years ago I won $22,800...but hege two plays and lost them
and net $12,531.00

 

[ACE-ACE]

.one point.......2 pts......4 pts .......8 pts......16 pts.......32 pts
FLA.................FLA........FLA...........FLA
PITT
VCU................VCU
UCLA
OHIO ST..........OH ST
SYR
N.MEX.............N.MEX......N.MEX
KAN
VIR.................VIR
MEM
CIN
MICH ST..........MICH ST..MI ST......MI ST......MI ST
NC
IOWA ST.........IOWA ST
ST J
VILL...............VILL..........VILL

ARI..............ARI
OKL ST..........OKL ST..........OKL ST
.N.DAK
SD ST...........SD ST
NEB
CREIGTON.....CREIGTON
OREGON
WIS..............WIS..............WIS........WIS
WICHITA ST....WICHITA
KY
OPEN RIGHT NOW
LOUISVILLE.....LOU...........LOU..........LOU......LOU.............WINNER LOUISVILLE
OPEN RIGHT NOW
DUKE..............DUKE
TEX
MICH..............MICH..........MICH

 

[ACE-ACE]

The two that open will be base on who get in...I will update on Wednesday .

 

[ACE-ACE]

Update one game

.one point.......2 pts......4 pts .......8 pts......16 pts.......32 pts
FLA.................FLA........FLA...........FLA
PITT
VCU................VCU
UCLA
OHIO ST..........OH ST
SYR
N.MEX.............N.MEX......N.MEX
KAN
VIR.................VIR
MEM
CIN
MICH ST..........MICH ST..MI ST......MI ST......MI ST
NC
IOWA ST.........IOWA ST
ST J
VILL...............VILL..........VILL


ARI..............ARI
OKL ST..........OKL ST..........OKL ST
.N.DAK
SD ST...........SD ST
NEB
CREIGTON.....CREIGTON
OREGON
WIS..............WIS..............WIS........WIS
WICHITA ST....WICHITA
KY
NC ST
LOUISVILLE.....LOU...........LOU..........LOU......LOU.............WINNER LOUISVILLE
MASS
DUKE..............DUKE
TEX
MICH..............MICH..........MICH

 

[phantom888]

Thanks ACE.

What's the final score?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thanks ACE.

What's the final score?

Mich ST 78 Louisville 87

Billion bracket contest..so change the number by one.....i

 

[phantom888]

Mich ST 78 Louisville 87

Billion bracket contest..so change the number by one.....i

Nice! Goodluck! I hope you remember us if you win it all!!....

 

[BigMoneyBaller]

Louisville looking good so far!

 

[arniesarmy]

Have a buddy that runs a Sweet 16 bracket....can you provide a guide for that?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Have a buddy that runs a Sweet 16 bracket....can you provide a guide for that?

Not sure what you are asking?

 

[wiskers1]

he is probably wondering your opinion on how you would pick the sweet 16 the rest of the way with the current teams in the 16. starting to see a lot of pools like that

 

[arniesarmy]

Exactly. Sorry I didn't make myself clear. Buddy has a new bracket starting with the Sweet 16. Don't know if you have any new insight on the tournament with it narrowed down to 16. All four of your Final Four teams are still alive so I guess you can't make much of a change.

he is probably wondering your opinion on how you would pick the sweet 16 the rest of the way with the current teams in the 16. starting to see a lot of pools like that

 

[ACE-ACE]

Move to the top 8

FLA
DAYTON
WIS
AZ

LOUISVILLE
TENN
MICH ST
CONN

TOP 4
just like I have them

MICH ST
LOUISVILLE
WIS
ARI

TOP TWO
MICH ST
LOUISVILL

WINNER. LOUISVILLE