Use the conference tournaments to find the teams that play the best under pressure on a neutral court. The teams that perform well in the conference tournaments generally are able to carry that same level of intensity into the NCAA tournament. Often times the regular season conference winner underperforms in the post season, while a few sleepers end up outperforming their regular season level of play. This provides excellent line value and opportunities to the player, as the oddsmakers don't have sufficient time to adjust the lines enough in a short span of time.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by 1BigCajun:
LOOK AT FG% last ten games leading up to the Tournament ..... AND look at FT% of the teams in the Last 10 games in games that were decided by Five Points or less. You can get an idea who hits the Big FTs in a small line game or with the game (Or a Cover) at Stakes. Trying to get an idea which teams have an advantage of riding a Hot Shooting Hand. Finally, look at the Bench Depth of a team .... who has guys that can play 3-4 men off the bench without dropping off too much on the court.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Nice points!
All I have to do now is find some kid, pay him $10 and have him find all the stats I need.
I'm just being a smart ass.
Anyway, first 2 rounds upsets or getting the points is always the way to go.
No matter what year, it's always the same.
Rude
LOOK AT FG% last ten games leading up to the Tournament ..... AND look at FT% of the teams in the Last 10 games in games that were decided by Five Points or less. You can get an idea who hits the Big FTs in a small line game or with the game (Or a Cover) at Stakes. Trying to get an idea which teams have an advantage of riding a Hot Shooting Hand. Finally, look at the Bench Depth of a team .... who has guys that can play 3-4 men off the bench without dropping off too much on the court.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Nice points!
All I have to do now is find some kid, pay him $10 and have him find all the stats I need.
Anyway, first 2 rounds upsets or getting the points is always the way to go.
No matter what year, it's always the same.
Rude
Take the points in 4-13 & 5-12 matchups
Bet the dog in late night games in Salt Lake, as being the Western-most game, it is the only game on the board(only game in town) for all of the tv viewing audience staying up back East, as the players all know that they have America's undivided attention & the refs usually help insure wild finishes by giving at times questionable loose ball arrows.
Go against the SEC first and foremost, as the league despite athleticism, has but two "great" teams this spring(UK & MSU), and both rely on two to three scorers for their main production, also Ky has played close-to-vest many times all year(relying on Fitch to bail 'em), and MSU has been sweating a few games of late..the rest of the league will not cover inflated chalk numbers(Fla, SoCar, & especially LSU..appears one-&-done)..Alabama is coming on, and may be a good dog, but is a go-against if chalk.
Go versus ACC as DD Dog, but must at first consider matchups(must pick spots, as Duke will have a few blowouts, and NC usually doesn't peter out until Sweet 16, & Wake can go either way)..FSU, GT, Md, & NC all have questionable Defense, but the team that you play versus these teams needs some bench & a few scorers..look for scrappy middle of the pack Big-10, SEC, BE, or CUSA squad for upsets versus the non-Carolina ACC schools, or polished mid-majors taking fat numbers in a few spots.
If a Martingdale bettor, consider taking the points versus Cincy, Az, Stanford, & Mich St every time out.
Bet on Princeton as a dog in every game until they go out, as they generally crunch a profit.
As others have said, look at current form hard(last 5 to 10 games), look for FT%, and FG%, look at matchups(look for dogs with awkward styles of play and/or size..plus a defensive specialist/lockdown player versus team's PG or star big man).
Play late(wait for all precincts to report), as those smarter than you will show you where the winner is, you'll come out better despite a few bad numbers, than jumping to early leads.
Be wary of youth as chalk, especailly at the PG position, also youth on teams that haven't been to tourney in a few springs
Also look for war-savvy small conference schools that have been to tourneys the past few years..they know the pain of losing, and some now have senior-laden players(albeit usually spotting athleticism edge) that will drop loosy-goosy young talent(FSU, Ala, & LSU may well go out in Gm-1).
Subtract top teams from equation(like Duke & Wake, Ky & MSU, OkSt & Tex, Stanford,etc..), as they like New Year's Day Bowl BCS teams can be misnomers, then zoom in on the remainder of teams from each Conference quickly to react to Conference form as tourney develops.
Though Hoops(with many Intra-conference games) usually isn't quite as strong an indicator as Football(where many teams play only cupcakes plus conference schedules prior to bowls), still their results in adjusting on the fly, can make or break you in certain spots..so keep a running count(as if the networks & studio guys would ever let you forget).
Pay keen attention to coaches ATS marks as Fav or Dog, also coaches' past affiliations(served under or with opposing coach somewhere) just like in Football, can be the difference in knowing tendencies or mercy(backdoors) in a some games.
You almost do this stuff so long, you forget a majority of what your subliminal uses in making decisions..which is why a lotta guys keep logs from year to year on teams, angles, trends, & tourneys/bowls/playoffs.
[This message was edited by Horseshoe on March 05, 2004 at 12:30 AM.]
Bet the dog in late night games in Salt Lake, as being the Western-most game, it is the only game on the board(only game in town) for all of the tv viewing audience staying up back East, as the players all know that they have America's undivided attention & the refs usually help insure wild finishes by giving at times questionable loose ball arrows.
Go against the SEC first and foremost, as the league despite athleticism, has but two "great" teams this spring(UK & MSU), and both rely on two to three scorers for their main production, also Ky has played close-to-vest many times all year(relying on Fitch to bail 'em), and MSU has been sweating a few games of late..the rest of the league will not cover inflated chalk numbers(Fla, SoCar, & especially LSU..appears one-&-done)..Alabama is coming on, and may be a good dog, but is a go-against if chalk.
Go versus ACC as DD Dog, but must at first consider matchups(must pick spots, as Duke will have a few blowouts, and NC usually doesn't peter out until Sweet 16, & Wake can go either way)..FSU, GT, Md, & NC all have questionable Defense, but the team that you play versus these teams needs some bench & a few scorers..look for scrappy middle of the pack Big-10, SEC, BE, or CUSA squad for upsets versus the non-Carolina ACC schools, or polished mid-majors taking fat numbers in a few spots.
If a Martingdale bettor, consider taking the points versus Cincy, Az, Stanford, & Mich St every time out.
Bet on Princeton as a dog in every game until they go out, as they generally crunch a profit.
As others have said, look at current form hard(last 5 to 10 games), look for FT%, and FG%, look at matchups(look for dogs with awkward styles of play and/or size..plus a defensive specialist/lockdown player versus team's PG or star big man).
Play late(wait for all precincts to report), as those smarter than you will show you where the winner is, you'll come out better despite a few bad numbers, than jumping to early leads.
Be wary of youth as chalk, especailly at the PG position, also youth on teams that haven't been to tourney in a few springs
Also look for war-savvy small conference schools that have been to tourneys the past few years..they know the pain of losing, and some now have senior-laden players(albeit usually spotting athleticism edge) that will drop loosy-goosy young talent(FSU, Ala, & LSU may well go out in Gm-1).
Subtract top teams from equation(like Duke & Wake, Ky & MSU, OkSt & Tex, Stanford,etc..), as they like New Year's Day Bowl BCS teams can be misnomers, then zoom in on the remainder of teams from each Conference quickly to react to Conference form as tourney develops.
Though Hoops(with many Intra-conference games) usually isn't quite as strong an indicator as Football(where many teams play only cupcakes plus conference schedules prior to bowls), still their results in adjusting on the fly, can make or break you in certain spots..so keep a running count(as if the networks & studio guys would ever let you forget).
Pay keen attention to coaches ATS marks as Fav or Dog, also coaches' past affiliations(served under or with opposing coach somewhere) just like in Football, can be the difference in knowing tendencies or mercy(backdoors) in a some games.
You almost do this stuff so long, you forget a majority of what your subliminal uses in making decisions..which is why a lotta guys keep logs from year to year on teams, angles, trends, & tourneys/bowls/playoffs.
[This message was edited by Horseshoe on March 05, 2004 at 12:30 AM.]
Bubble mania.
(Record and RPI ranking in parenthesees. RPI ranking from CollegeRPI.com)
Locks
Arizona (18-8, 33)
Boston College (19-8, 24)
Charlotte (18-7, 30)
Cincinnati (20-5, 18)
Connecticut (23-5, 11)
Duke (23-3, 1)
Florida (17-8, 15)
Georgia Tech (20-8, 22)
Gonzaga (25-2, 12)
Illinois (20-5, 26)
Kansas (17-7, 20)
Kentucky (21-4, 4)
Louisville (18-7, 16)
LSU (17-8, 28)
Memphis (20-5, 24)
Michigan State (17-9, 36)
Mississippi State (23-2, 3)
N.C. State (18-7, 10)
North Carolina (17-8, 17)
Oklahoma State (22-3, 14)
Pittsburgh (25-3, 9)
Providence (20-5, 8)
Seton Hall (19-7, 19)
South Carolina (21-7, 39)
Southern Illinois (24-2, 13)
St. Joe's (26-0, 2)
Stanford (25-0, 5)
Syracuse (19-6, 25)
Texas (21-4, 6)
Vanderbilt (18-7, 29)
Wake Forest (19-6, 7)
Wisconsin (19-6, 27)
Bubble teams In.
Air Force (20-5, 58)
Alabama (15-10, 21)
BYU (18-7, 34)
Colorado (17-8, 52)
Dayton (21-6, 41)
DePaul (17-8, 48)
Florida State (18-11, 46)
Kent State (20-5, 62)
Manhattan (22-5, 53)
Missouri (15-10, 32)
Nevada (18-8, 43)
Richmond (17-11, 45)
Texas Tech (19-9, 35)
UAB (17-8, 31)
Utah (20-7, 43)
Utah State (24-2, 41)
UTEP (22-5, 48)
Bubble teams Out.
George Washington (16-9, 68)
Georgia (14-11, 50)
Hawaii (18-8, 60)
Iowa (15-10, 71)
Iowa State (14-10, 65)
Maryland (14-11, 34)
Michigan (16-9, 55)
Nebraska (16-9, 76)
Notre Dame (14-11, 49)
Oklahoma (16-9, 42)
Pacific (20-7, 66)
Purdue (17-10, 92)
Rice (20-7, 54)
Rutgers (16-9, 38)
St. Louis (15-10, 68)
Virginia (15-10, 51)
Western Michigan (21-4, 56)
Wichita State (20-8, 58)
Xavier (17-10, 61)
wil.
(Record and RPI ranking in parenthesees. RPI ranking from CollegeRPI.com)
Locks
Arizona (18-8, 33)
Boston College (19-8, 24)
Charlotte (18-7, 30)
Cincinnati (20-5, 18)
Connecticut (23-5, 11)
Duke (23-3, 1)
Florida (17-8, 15)
Georgia Tech (20-8, 22)
Gonzaga (25-2, 12)
Illinois (20-5, 26)
Kansas (17-7, 20)
Kentucky (21-4, 4)
Louisville (18-7, 16)
LSU (17-8, 28)
Memphis (20-5, 24)
Michigan State (17-9, 36)
Mississippi State (23-2, 3)
N.C. State (18-7, 10)
North Carolina (17-8, 17)
Oklahoma State (22-3, 14)
Pittsburgh (25-3, 9)
Providence (20-5, 8)
Seton Hall (19-7, 19)
South Carolina (21-7, 39)
Southern Illinois (24-2, 13)
St. Joe's (26-0, 2)
Stanford (25-0, 5)
Syracuse (19-6, 25)
Texas (21-4, 6)
Vanderbilt (18-7, 29)
Wake Forest (19-6, 7)
Wisconsin (19-6, 27)
Bubble teams In.
Air Force (20-5, 58)
Alabama (15-10, 21)
BYU (18-7, 34)
Colorado (17-8, 52)
Dayton (21-6, 41)
DePaul (17-8, 48)
Florida State (18-11, 46)
Kent State (20-5, 62)
Manhattan (22-5, 53)
Missouri (15-10, 32)
Nevada (18-8, 43)
Richmond (17-11, 45)
Texas Tech (19-9, 35)
UAB (17-8, 31)
Utah (20-7, 43)
Utah State (24-2, 41)
UTEP (22-5, 48)
Bubble teams Out.
George Washington (16-9, 68)
Georgia (14-11, 50)
Hawaii (18-8, 60)
Iowa (15-10, 71)
Iowa State (14-10, 65)
Maryland (14-11, 34)
Michigan (16-9, 55)
Nebraska (16-9, 76)
Notre Dame (14-11, 49)
Oklahoma (16-9, 42)
Pacific (20-7, 66)
Purdue (17-10, 92)
Rice (20-7, 54)
Rutgers (16-9, 38)
St. Louis (15-10, 68)
Virginia (15-10, 51)
Western Michigan (21-4, 56)
Wichita State (20-8, 58)
Xavier (17-10, 61)
wil.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Fair Warning thanks for the input. The in or out bubble lists are obviously speculation at this time. IMO. Mich. St gets the benefit of a tough home schedule to get the high RPI.
wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree that MSU has played a tough schedule, but don't you have to win A game (0-1 vs Illinois, 0-2 vs Wisc).
Fair Warning thanks for the input. The in or out bubble lists are obviously speculation at this time. IMO. Mich. St gets the benefit of a tough home schedule to get the high RPI.
wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I agree that MSU has played a tough schedule, but don't you have to win A game (0-1 vs Illinois, 0-2 vs Wisc).
Fair Warning, good points, I am not saying I agree with the RPI. I am simply stating the reason for it. Mich St. at home this year:
3/2/2004 Michigan St. 64 Wisconsin 68 L -3 L 129 O
2/21/2004 Michigan St. 66 Northwestern 56 W -12 L
2/17/2004 Michigan St. 62 Purdue 55 W -5.5 W 129.5 U
2/14/2004 Michigan St. 69 Minnesota 58 W -12.5 L 147.5 U
2/4/2004 Michigan St. 89 Iowa 72 W -7 W 148.5 O
1/31/2004 Michigan St. 84 Indiana 72 W -8.5 W 135 O
1/17/2004 Michigan St. 71 Michigan 54 W -5.5 W 134.5 U
1/14/2004 Michigan St. 76 Penn St. 58 W -16 W 133 O
12/30/2003 Michigan St. 78 Coppin St 72 W
12/16/2003 Michigan St. 73 South Florida 60 W -17 L
12/13/2003 Michigan St. 74 Kentucky 79 L 2 L 130.5 O
12/6/2003 Michigan St. 77 Oklahoma 80 L -4 L 130 O
12/3/2003 Michigan St. 50 Duke 72 L -3 L 139 U
11/30/2003 Michigan St 89 DePaul 81 W -13 L
11/29/2003 Michigan St. 77 Pennsylvania 52 W -16 W
11/21/2003 Michigan St. 64 Bucknell 52 W
wil.
3/2/2004 Michigan St. 64 Wisconsin 68 L -3 L 129 O
2/21/2004 Michigan St. 66 Northwestern 56 W -12 L
2/17/2004 Michigan St. 62 Purdue 55 W -5.5 W 129.5 U
2/14/2004 Michigan St. 69 Minnesota 58 W -12.5 L 147.5 U
2/4/2004 Michigan St. 89 Iowa 72 W -7 W 148.5 O
1/31/2004 Michigan St. 84 Indiana 72 W -8.5 W 135 O
1/17/2004 Michigan St. 71 Michigan 54 W -5.5 W 134.5 U
1/14/2004 Michigan St. 76 Penn St. 58 W -16 W 133 O
12/30/2003 Michigan St. 78 Coppin St 72 W
12/16/2003 Michigan St. 73 South Florida 60 W -17 L
12/13/2003 Michigan St. 74 Kentucky 79 L 2 L 130.5 O
12/6/2003 Michigan St. 77 Oklahoma 80 L -4 L 130 O
12/3/2003 Michigan St. 50 Duke 72 L -3 L 139 U
11/30/2003 Michigan St 89 DePaul 81 W -13 L
11/29/2003 Michigan St. 77 Pennsylvania 52 W -16 W
11/21/2003 Michigan St. 64 Bucknell 52 W
wil.
Mich St's Izzo, LSU's Brady, Ok St's Sutton, Wisky's coach-of-any-year, & Pitt's Dixon stress such battle-ball defense(team practices), that at times it really seems to keep their team's offense stuck in ruts, especially when young or not loaded with scorers/shooters.
As opposed to Pitino, Donovan, Huggins, former Lavin, Boeheim, Williams,etc..opened-up offensive appoaches.
Finding the right ratio can be a bitch!
[This message was edited by Horseshoe on March 06, 2004 at 04:14 AM.]
As opposed to Pitino, Donovan, Huggins, former Lavin, Boeheim, Williams,etc..opened-up offensive appoaches.
Finding the right ratio can be a bitch!
[This message was edited by Horseshoe on March 06, 2004 at 04:14 AM.]
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Fair Warning, good points, I am not saying I agree with the RPI. I am simply stating the reason for it. Mich St. at home this year:
3/2/2004 Michigan St. 64 Wisconsin 68 L -3 L 129 O
2/21/2004 Michigan St. 66 Northwestern 56 W -12 L
2/17/2004 Michigan St. 62 Purdue 55 W -5.5 W 129.5 U
2/14/2004 Michigan St. 69 Minnesota 58 W -12.5 L 147.5 U
2/4/2004 Michigan St. 89 Iowa 72 W -7 W 148.5 O
1/31/2004 Michigan St. 84 Indiana 72 W -8.5 W 135 O
1/17/2004 Michigan St. 71 Michigan 54 W -5.5 W 134.5 U
1/14/2004 Michigan St. 76 Penn St. 58 W -16 W 133 O
12/30/2003 Michigan St. 78 Coppin St 72 W
12/16/2003 Michigan St. 73 South Florida 60 W -17 L
12/13/2003 Michigan St. 74 Kentucky 79 L 2 L 130.5 O
12/6/2003 Michigan St. 77 Oklahoma 80 L -4 L 130 O
12/3/2003 Michigan St. 50 Duke 72 L -3 L 139 U
11/30/2003 Michigan St 89 DePaul 81 W -13 L
11/29/2003 Michigan St. 77 Pennsylvania 52 W -16 W
11/21/2003 Michigan St. 64 Bucknell 52 W
wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No Wil, maybe disagreeing with how the RPI is figured in general. Looking at this I would put Maryland in over MSU. When you play in the Big 10 and your biggest home win is DePaul
I vote them out.
Fair Warning, good points, I am not saying I agree with the RPI. I am simply stating the reason for it. Mich St. at home this year:
3/2/2004 Michigan St. 64 Wisconsin 68 L -3 L 129 O
2/21/2004 Michigan St. 66 Northwestern 56 W -12 L
2/17/2004 Michigan St. 62 Purdue 55 W -5.5 W 129.5 U
2/14/2004 Michigan St. 69 Minnesota 58 W -12.5 L 147.5 U
2/4/2004 Michigan St. 89 Iowa 72 W -7 W 148.5 O
1/31/2004 Michigan St. 84 Indiana 72 W -8.5 W 135 O
1/17/2004 Michigan St. 71 Michigan 54 W -5.5 W 134.5 U
1/14/2004 Michigan St. 76 Penn St. 58 W -16 W 133 O
12/30/2003 Michigan St. 78 Coppin St 72 W
12/16/2003 Michigan St. 73 South Florida 60 W -17 L
12/13/2003 Michigan St. 74 Kentucky 79 L 2 L 130.5 O
12/6/2003 Michigan St. 77 Oklahoma 80 L -4 L 130 O
12/3/2003 Michigan St. 50 Duke 72 L -3 L 139 U
11/30/2003 Michigan St 89 DePaul 81 W -13 L
11/29/2003 Michigan St. 77 Pennsylvania 52 W -16 W
11/21/2003 Michigan St. 64 Bucknell 52 W
wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No Wil, maybe disagreeing with how the RPI is figured in general. Looking at this I would put Maryland in over MSU. When you play in the Big 10 and your biggest home win is DePaul
Also, look to go against teams that had to win their way in via conference tourneys, or teams that played 3 & 4 games in conference tourneys to win their way off the bubble, as some always do like NFL Wildcard Game losers, in that they shot their loads just to get into the party..showing up spaghetti-legged.
