80% of the individuals in this poll thus far(many that I consider extremely sharp) make the line LESS then -14 and your making it -17.5??????
:think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2::think2:
Still the only one at -12...........but after thinking I was to high yesterday, YOUR HIGHLY respected opinion makes me believe I'm a point low...........so if I were to vote right now, would make the line -13.
On that note, hope your enjoying Vegas Mr. Iceman.........still haven't been in touch with Randy, as we have been playing phone tag all week.
Utah crushed Alabama.........
Why are you not considering this?
It's like the game never happened in your eyes.
Let's see, Utah crushes Alabama(a former #1 team and legit top 10 team) and finishes the season ranked #2 in the country and they are going to be as high as a -17.5 pt. dog to florida in some peoples eyes??????
WOW
I trust my numbers and I am usually right on with them, if anything my numbers have a hard time giving enough credit to super teams like a Florida. Very rarely was my numbers off by a handful of points in any game all year and I dont remember ever being off with a favorite by that many points in any one game all year. I truly believe the linesmaker uses much of the same stuff I do when making a line.
This all boils down to a few questions and how you answer them goes far in what you (or anyone) would think.
1. If Utah and Alabama were to play again what do you think the line would be? I say Alabama -5. And please dont give me the fact they beat them the week before, you and I know that isnt how it works, if it did we would all be millionaires. The line closed around 10 for the bowl game, which is a true indication of the differences in these two teams based on a seasons worth of information. Nobody before this game seemed to think this was absurd, etc. Utah easily won that game but it also doesnt mean tomorrow if they were to play again that Alabama dont win easily either. Prime example of what I am getting at is late in the regular season the Philadelphia Eagles went to Ny to play the Giants and were 6.5 underdogs, they won the game and came back a month later after winning there and played NY again and were still a 4.5 dog, a slight adjustment but we all now who the better team was for the entir year when based on a years with of information. You dont make Philly a favorite because they beat Ny in one game. That would be dumb, IMO. So I think with all the information that is out there based on the complete season that Bama is still a 5 point favorite in this game and I think that is more then a fair line.
2. Now I think Florida is one of the most dominate teams in years. They won every game by double digits and I think it would be a safe bet to say if they played Alabama again they would be a little bigger favorite then the were the first time (-10) were they won by 11. So how about Florida -13 against Alabama in the rematch and with Alabama being 5 points or so better then Utah then 18 would be right if Florida played Utah.
Now dont get me wrong this is not how I do make my lines but this is a very logical way too look at this. It all boils down to what do you think the line would be for Alabama versus Utah if they played again? There is no way Alabama wouldnt still be favored. Just like if Missipippi played Florida again they surely wouldnt be favored just because they beat them last time. 10 points is a lot of points for a team to make up with a seasons worth of information and there is no way in my opinion Utah did that off of one game, NO WAY. Not this late in the season.
I feel more and more confident with this Florida -17.5 to 19.5 is about right. I had too double check my numbers after I read this again out of fear I did something wrong. I feel strongly this is correct. You really think Florida would only beat Utah by 12 points when the beat every opponenet by double digits all year? Like I said if this line came out under 14 the books would be more then swamped with gator money (no pun intended,LOL) and would be in a world of hurt. I dont think you are giving the Gators their due here at all. They were awesome the last 10 or so games of the year and awesome is an understatement. I dont see that at all. Maybe -16.5 but not a single point less, IMO.
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Now your up to -19.5?
Geezus, are you getting enough fresh air these days sir?
An undefeated team that's ranked #2 in the country with wins over Oregon State and Alabama and they are going to be 19.5 point underdogs to a team that lost to Ole Miss and was somewhat fortunate to cover -5.5 against Oklahoma?
Geezus, are you getting enough fresh air these days sir?
An undefeated team that's ranked #2 in the country with wins over Oregon State and Alabama and they are going to be 19.5 point underdogs to a team that lost to Ole Miss and was somewhat fortunate to cover -5.5 against Oklahoma?
but hey dont believe me ....lets let ken white decide.
http://www.majorwager.com/forums/me...ida-sports-book-supplier-says-usc-no-1-a.html
http://www.majorwager.com/forums/me...ida-sports-book-supplier-says-usc-no-1-a.html
The question you posed is what would the line be, and the answer is around 20. I am not the one that isnt getting enough air here. You are simply off base on this one FH. Sorry if you dont agree with me. I am not trying to be cocky, you know I am not like that.
I am just relaying you information, none of this is of my opinion at all, its based strictly on numbers and stats (funny thing is USC has been my #1 all year also in my power rating with Florida #2, exactly like LVSC) I swear to you what I am using goes hand in hand with what LVSC is using. There is just no way I would be that far off a game numbers wise, as I recall I havent been and espically with a favorite all season. People may want to delve a lot deeper into the Utes seasonsal statistics, they dont reflect a dominate team and dont think this doesnt go a lot further into how good the Utes are then just simply looking at wins and losses, which is all that matters when discussing national championships qualafactions.
This has nothing to do with my opinion or how flawed the whole system is, I already know how bad that it is. Utah is around the 20th best team in my numbers also. Lets face it the Utes were a great story and were proving people wrong late in the season and I couldnt be happier to see it, I rooted for them every step of the way too make a mockery of this whole mess but it doesnt take away from the fact they are not really the second best team in the nation, they had THE THE SECOND BEST SEASON IS ALL THIS MEANS and that is what wininng a national championship is all about.
Voting who was desereved of being #1,#2,or #20 is all based on what was accomplished on the field, that has nothing to with putting up a pointspread and when you put up a pointspread they would be around the 20th best team in the nation!!! I think most who make pointspreads, power ratings and use stats will agree with this completely and I will take Kenny White and his guys opinions over some out of town sportswriter who watches the highlights at the bar on Sunday's and doesnt study this stuff up and down and back and front. You know as well as I do and I remember you saying stuff like that in the past, that a linesmaker knows these teams better then anyone else and the linesmaker knows the Utes are the 20th ranked team in the nation. His numbers have too be close too dead on or he and lots of others could get hurt quickly.
I guarantee you if Kenny White answers this questions he answers within 2 points either way of 19.5. Just like if Bama plays Utah again Alabama is favored which 100% supports my argument. That point alone is enough too supprot my argument, no? There isnt a doubt in my mind if the linesmaker opened this up at 12-14 points he would get hit so hard, so fast, this game would get them killed and they know that. It would quickly get past 17 in no time.
I am just relaying you information, none of this is of my opinion at all, its based strictly on numbers and stats (funny thing is USC has been my #1 all year also in my power rating with Florida #2, exactly like LVSC) I swear to you what I am using goes hand in hand with what LVSC is using. There is just no way I would be that far off a game numbers wise, as I recall I havent been and espically with a favorite all season. People may want to delve a lot deeper into the Utes seasonsal statistics, they dont reflect a dominate team and dont think this doesnt go a lot further into how good the Utes are then just simply looking at wins and losses, which is all that matters when discussing national championships qualafactions.
This has nothing to do with my opinion or how flawed the whole system is, I already know how bad that it is. Utah is around the 20th best team in my numbers also. Lets face it the Utes were a great story and were proving people wrong late in the season and I couldnt be happier to see it, I rooted for them every step of the way too make a mockery of this whole mess but it doesnt take away from the fact they are not really the second best team in the nation, they had THE THE SECOND BEST SEASON IS ALL THIS MEANS and that is what wininng a national championship is all about.
Voting who was desereved of being #1,#2,or #20 is all based on what was accomplished on the field, that has nothing to with putting up a pointspread and when you put up a pointspread they would be around the 20th best team in the nation!!! I think most who make pointspreads, power ratings and use stats will agree with this completely and I will take Kenny White and his guys opinions over some out of town sportswriter who watches the highlights at the bar on Sunday's and doesnt study this stuff up and down and back and front. You know as well as I do and I remember you saying stuff like that in the past, that a linesmaker knows these teams better then anyone else and the linesmaker knows the Utes are the 20th ranked team in the nation. His numbers have too be close too dead on or he and lots of others could get hurt quickly.
I guarantee you if Kenny White answers this questions he answers within 2 points either way of 19.5. Just like if Bama plays Utah again Alabama is favored which 100% supports my argument. That point alone is enough too supprot my argument, no? There isnt a doubt in my mind if the linesmaker opened this up at 12-14 points he would get hit so hard, so fast, this game would get them killed and they know that. It would quickly get past 17 in no time.
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Ken White literally handed me $13,000 in a football contest a few years back(26,000 for 1st and 13,000 for 2nd) and also slammed me in the local LV newspapers, so please, leave him and his opinions out of this thread.
Thanks,
-FH-
ps---Really not sure if all people voting in this thread(especially those making Florida -14 or more) watched Utah and Florida in their respective bowl games.
Thanks,
-FH-
ps---Really not sure if all people voting in this thread(especially those making Florida -14 or more) watched Utah and Florida in their respective bowl games.
hno:
