Yes, I rate this selection as high as last week's selection.....maybe even a tad higher.
You guys should know that when I select a game it comes from only two factors...statistics and motivation. Statistics NEVER lie and you can build a sizeable bankroll by playing those alone. Don't believe me? Check out BIGPETE or BIGDADDYNOLE. Those two guys go to work all week with their lunch-box, crunching numbers and consistently bang out wins. So, here is how I break down this game:
Statistics:
If you want numbers, look at my previous posts. The bottom line is not the #1 Ole miss offense against the #1 LSU defense...it's the complete opposite. Ole Miss plays a ball control, dink and dunk, short passing game. Their QB goes through his reads well and doesn't hold the ball for a long time. This lends itself to methodical drives that culminate in points. They also have the best field goal kicker in America, so Ole Miss can play between the 20's and still score plenty of points. However, they will have to perform this against one of the nation's premier defenses...and I suspect they will score more points than any other team has against LSU. The problem is that LSU is the SEC's #2 offense...and they aren't going against a premier defense...quite the opposite. LSU is going to score HUGE on the Rebels...easily. Check out Ole Miss’ defensive numbers…they will not be able to do anything to stop the Tigers
Motivation:
Last week, LSU was very motivated to skull drag the Tide, because of what happened during and especially after their game last year. It is one thing to stomp a team at home, but it is just plain stupid to give them the belt on the way out the door...especially a conference opponent that you'll see every year. Bama did just that, and the Tigers hated them for it. The bad news for Bama was that LSU was in a position to pound them...and they did. Now, LSU does not have a revenge factor for the Ole Miss game, but in this case, that is actually a good thing. As a former player, I can tell you that enthusiasm by an underdog does not sustain itself for 60 minutes...it actually builds to a fever pitch and then drains you. Now, Ole Miss has had two weeks of anticipation for this game and they’re building it to be their big game of the decade! They’re torn between desire to make it to the SEC Championship game (for the first time) and dropping the #3 ranked Tigers. LSU however is taking a methodical one game approach to their preparation (Saban is renowned for preaching the “process instead of the result”) because a win over Ole Miss does NOT guarantee them a trip to Atlanta. So, you can expect to see Ole Miss come out fired up and you will see LSU methodically hammer them for four quarters.
LSU 42 -17
