I honestly think I could break even if you forced me to play not only each game, but EACH side of each game.
Free 1/2 points. Reduced vig. Obvious line moves. How does anyone lose?
Case in point, Hawaii -17 or Fla Atl +25.5? Sure, this one didn't hit, but you just fire again, this week on Boise -6, Or State +9, Ten -1, Mia +3.5, Car -1, GB +3.5, Den over 43, Den under 50, etc. etc. etc. etc.
Free 1/2 points. Reduced vig. Obvious line moves. How does anyone lose?
Case in point, Hawaii -17 or Fla Atl +25.5? Sure, this one didn't hit, but you just fire again, this week on Boise -6, Or State +9, Ten -1, Mia +3.5, Car -1, GB +3.5, Den over 43, Den under 50, etc. etc. etc. etc.
not true that only the winner pays the vig...IMO this is one of the most over-publicized myths out there, and something that is constantly debated...in theory both parties pay equally, if the line is "correctly" set. In practice, the losers pay it for the sharps. Check out a 1st year economics textbook on the effect of taxation on supply/demand curves. Vig is the same thing as a tax in the market sense.
Easiest to illustrate with moneylines...if you see a line of -155/+145, then the "true line" should be +150, if the market is efficient...in other words the favorite has a 66.7% chance of winning and the dog 33.3%. The vig is a tax or fee for allowing the bet to be placed and both parties are paying it with this line, because both parties are paying a worse price than is justified by the true odds of the bet winning.
Now, winning handicappers are going to be the players who are getting the lines at a discount...example, you bet a +120 dog who actually has a 50% chance of winning (the line has "value")...you are "buying something that SHOULD cost -100 but getting it at +120...you are not paying the vig. the person who is laying -130 on that favorite is overpaying for his bet and also paying the vig. On any one bet you can't necessarily say which side is paying the premium, but over the long term, the losers are overpaying for their bets and therefore paying the vig.
Easiest to illustrate with moneylines...if you see a line of -155/+145, then the "true line" should be +150, if the market is efficient...in other words the favorite has a 66.7% chance of winning and the dog 33.3%. The vig is a tax or fee for allowing the bet to be placed and both parties are paying it with this line, because both parties are paying a worse price than is justified by the true odds of the bet winning.
Now, winning handicappers are going to be the players who are getting the lines at a discount...example, you bet a +120 dog who actually has a 50% chance of winning (the line has "value")...you are "buying something that SHOULD cost -100 but getting it at +120...you are not paying the vig. the person who is laying -130 on that favorite is overpaying for his bet and also paying the vig. On any one bet you can't necessarily say which side is paying the premium, but over the long term, the losers are overpaying for their bets and therefore paying the vig.
