Looking at this all wrong: KC/Cin

[DocHolliday]

I made a post in another thread but will say it here

people looking at this all wrong; ask yourself this

1) what would the line be with a healthy mahomes.
2) how much of this public action all on the bengals is due to this?

My belief.. is if he plays.. again have to make sure he plays. But if he plays he plays a lot closer to 100 percent than people are saying. This means this line is waaaaay off.

All discussion is welcome. Even you gman if you can keep it adult

 

[HacheMan]

Tape on the ankle and a shot works miracles even if the ankle is still achy

 

[HacheMan]

Much to be seen

Going to tease Kansas City up to +8.5 and the total down to 39.5

 

[exploited17]

Well,it is similar to a few years ago when he got hurt in the Browns game
Line was KC -3 vs Buffalo in the end but went as low as pk I believe
Lots of people were thinking Mahomes wouldn't be Mahomes but he was
They won by 14
Still think Cincy is the better team but is the difference eneough to make up for everything else?
That is assuming Mahomes was healthy of course

 

[DocHolliday]

Personally think KC would be -3, or even up to 3.5 or 4 if Mahomes was healthy

Its now +1.5 for KC.

That’s a 5-6 point swing in line on an ankle. The same ankle Vegas knew about and still opened the line -1.5. Since then the only news has been good news.. saying basically that he felt better than expected the following day.

Personal opinion is that IF he is healthy enough to play, he’s way closer to 100 percent than the public is giving credit for. And the line is way off.

But it is important to make sure he plays—- if the ankle is bad— he wont play. So in my mind its bad and he’s OUT or he’s a lot closer to 100% than people think

 

[DocHolliday]

Guess my point is:

If you knew you had Cincy and KC in arrowhead for the AFC championship… and you liked Cinn. You’d probably be expecting to get no less than 3 points.

This ankle injury has you laying points??? And 80% of the public is so Cinn?

^^ That wouldn’t have me running to bet the bengals

 

[Avocado33]

KC -2ish if Mahomes was healthy

 

[Avocado33]

Personal opinion is that IF he is healthy enough to play, he’s way closer to 100 percent than the public is giving credit for. And the line is way off.

Yeah it's hard to gauge this

I think he probably plays but high ankle sprain is the diagnosis, which means he's probably not that close to 100%. I guess whatever that means is subjective, but it's a fairly serious injury. Like he will need serious time off in the offseason to recover

Unless the diagnosis is incorrect

 

[Avocado33]

Well,it is similar to a few years ago when he got hurt in the Browns game
Line was KC -3 vs Buffalo in the end but went as low as pk I believe
Lots of people were thinking Mahomes wouldn't be Mahomes but he was
They won by 14
Still think Cincy is the better team but is the difference eneough to make up for everything else?
That is assuming Mahomes was healthy of course

What is "everything else"? The fact that it's b2b on road in tough environment?

 

[ca$hmoney]

Hurts played in week 18 and he was still hurt. He wasn’t very effective. Mahomes is the master of extending the play. How much extending will he be doing on a frozen field with a pretty bad injury. I wouldn’t assume that he is near 100% if he plays. I’d take a Mahomes at 50% over henne at 100%. But that bengals D is solid and will bring the pressure. The line difference between kc -3 if healthy vs bengals -2 isn’t much. Is it public money? I doubt it. We all know he is hurt but that is why the line came out low. Someone knows something which drove the line in favor of Cincy.

 

[exploited17]

What is "everything else"? The fact that it's b2b on road in tough environment?

You seem to think them being 3-0 against them means something don't you?
It doesn't

 

[Avocado33]

You seem to think them being 3-0 against them means something don't you?
It doesn't

?

It was a genuine question.

I don’t think the 3-0 means much at all. Where are you getting that from?

 

[DocHolliday]

Hurts played in week 18 and he was still hurt. He wasn’t very effective. Mahomes is the master of extending the play. How much extending will he be doing on a frozen field with a pretty bad injury. I wouldn’t assume that he is near 100% if he plays. I’d take a Mahomes at 50% over henne at 100%. But that bengals D is solid and will bring the pressure. The line difference between kc -3 if healthy vs bengals -2 isn’t much. Is it public money? I doubt it. We all know he is hurt but that is why the line came out low. Someone knows something which drove the line in favor of Cincy.

I disagree with just about all of this.

kc has shown they won’t risk mahomes future for the now. If he can’t run the offense or he can’t protect himself. He won’t play. Philly playing hurts in week 18, isn’t the same as this. I don’t think you can even compare it.

no one is saying mahomes will be 100 percent but I think people are thinking he’ll be 50-60 percent. I think people think you’ll see the mahomes from the jags game. I don’t agree with that at all. He’s getting treatment around the clock. And kc has a week to game plan around the ankle and the pressure everyone thinks the bengals will bring.

finally, no one knows anything about the ankle. This is probably be one of the most tight lipped thing ever. It’s a lot of assumptions and a lot of people guessing at what a high ankle sprain will do that has driven the line up. Vegas rarely makes mistakes. 80 percent of the money on cinn, isn’t a side id want to be on. Vegas doesn’t make 3 point mistakes on games like this. They knew about the and ankle and post a -1.5 line.

 

[DocHolliday]

Yeah it's hard to gauge this

I think he probably plays but high ankle sprain is the diagnosis, which means he's probably not that close to 100%. I guess whatever that means is subjective, but it's a fairly serious injury. Like he will need serious time off in the offseason to recover

Unless the diagnosis is incorrect

Definitely hard to gauge and I think there has been over correction on it all.

the only thing we’ve heard is that he felt better the day after. Lot of people playing doctor here and assuming.

 

[XENO]

3-0 is not nothing -cinn y is saying hey we can beat ‘em cause we did it 3 times before a big morale booster but of course cinny should not get too over confident

 

[DocHolliday]

3-0 isn’t nothing, but it would mean more if the games were dominated.

the chiefs gave away the championship last year. 1st and goal with under a min left to win then the first possession in OT.

game this year kc missed a game tying FG at the games end and had a key fumble that led to Cinn game winning TD drive.

Sure the bengals know they can beat the chiefs. But I doubt the chiefs are over there shaking in their boots bc the bengals are on the other side. Very easily both those games were KC wins.

And yes I do think people are factoring the 3-0 into the line yet the don’t realize how those games were actually played

also 2 of those 3 games were played in Cincinnati.

 

[Serbone]

If it truly is a high ankle sprain, there is no way he will be able to scramble in the pocket and make incredible plays, get off a pass under extreme pressure, and / or run for first downs all the time... the things than make him great. If he stands in the pocket like the Jax game after he was hurt, he is a middle of the pack pocket passing QB, his greatness is not there.

Unless it was a very mild high ankle sprain, he will not be a great quarterback this Sunday. "Tape it up" is not enough. No way.

 

[DocHolliday]

If it truly is a high ankle sprain, there is no way he will be able to scramble in the pocket and make incredible plays, get off a pass under extreme pressure, and / or run for first downs all the time... the things than make him great. If he stands in the pocket like the Jax game after he was hurt, he is a middle of the pack pocket passing QB, his greatness is not there.

Unless it was a very mild high ankle sprain, he will not be a great quarterback this Sunday. "Tape it up" is not enough. No way.

Agree with a lot of this.

that’s why I think IF he plays he’s a lot closer to 100 percent than 50.

if he’s the way you describe above, I don’t think he plays.

too much speculation and internet doctors though. One thing that is for sure, he’s getting round the clock treatment Reports are he was better than expected the day after and tbe chiefs have a week to prepare for it all.

just read an article where a healthy mahomes and the line is 4 to 4.5. Way too much of a correction over an ankle no one really knows anything about.

 

[Avocado33]

3-0 isn’t nothing, but it would mean more if the games were dominated.

the chiefs gave away the championship last year. 1st and goal with under a min left to win then the first possession in OT.

game this year kc missed a game tying FG at the games end and had a key fumble that led to Cinn game winning TD drive.

Sure the bengals know they can beat the chiefs. But I doubt the chiefs are over there shaking in their boots bc the bengals are on the other side. Very easily both those games were KC wins.

And yes I do think people are factoring the 3-0 into the line yet the don’t realize how those games were actually played

also 2 of those 3 games were played in Cincinnati.

Ehhh

The Bengals probably should have beaten the Chiefs by a lot more this season. They blundered two red zone opportunities that could have opened the game up. The Chiefs stayed in the game because Mahomes made some timely big plays .

The Bengals really controlled the game, moved the ball at will. Except for the first half of the AFC title game, the Chiefs have really not been able to slow Cincinnati down at all.

Does the 3-0 matter as a stat itself? Not really, but it’s not like Bengals were just on the right side of variance or some shit like that

 

[DocHolliday]

AFC championship game?

21-10 at half with the chiefs getting stopped on the 1 to go up 28-10.

chiefs have a 1st and goal at the 5. Bengals have 0 timeouts. Touchdown wins it basically and they settled for FG

then they win the coin flip and mahomes throws a pick

lots of good breaks for the bengals to win that game. Not sure how it can been seen any other way. Give them credit for winning it, not discounting them winning, but the chiefs blew that one.

the game this year I didn’t get a chance to watch live. So your take may be right. That said the chiefs still missed a game tying field goal.

point really wasn’t anything other than people are hearing 0-3 vs bengals they really don’t realize how close the games have been and honestly how fortunate cincy was to win the afc championship game last year in arrowhead.