If anybody out there thinks the short sighted fact of whether this PARTICULAR bet won or lost is the point is totally missing what Packer and Winkyduck are saying and definitely missing the big picture. A well capped/good value play is a good bet before and after the event is won or lost. Anyone who seriously says, "any play that wins is a good bet" simply because it won or "regardless of prices this is the play" needs to listen a little more, talk a little less (and maybe take gambling 101) It's not about an individual play, it's your over-all approach/way of thinking.
It's like a guy taking a short cut across a frozen pond every day. Each day he crosses safely he says to himself, "damn I'm smart, look at the time I saved, I'm going to do that again tomorrow." And he does...even as spring sets in. Again, it's a way of thinking.
And to that the game in questions could have easily gone either way - Pistons take the lead for the first time with 3:57 in the 4th - and we got guys bragging, Hope you took my advise and took Detroit. Yeah, whatever. The advise to be taken in this thread has nothing to do with an NBA pick. Those who know it, know it. Those who don't...good luck crossing the ice tomorr...er...betting ML favs in the long run.
It's like a guy taking a short cut across a frozen pond every day. Each day he crosses safely he says to himself, "damn I'm smart, look at the time I saved, I'm going to do that again tomorrow." And he does...even as spring sets in. Again, it's a way of thinking.
And to that the game in questions could have easily gone either way - Pistons take the lead for the first time with 3:57 in the 4th - and we got guys bragging, Hope you took my advise and took Detroit. Yeah, whatever. The advise to be taken in this thread has nothing to do with an NBA pick. Those who know it, know it. Those who don't...good luck crossing the ice tomorr...er...betting ML favs in the long run.
Normally Winkyduck is spot on, here he is wrong. Over the past 5 seasons, 5 pt or more playoff home favs are 145-36 SU. I know how guys here hate trends but so be it, at 80% a it's not a trend (no lock either) but at least identifies something worth looking at. Therefore you are getting a -400 play at a
-300 price. That's just good value in my book. They call was good and the play was solid.
-300 price. That's just good value in my book. They call was good and the play was solid.
SEC,
I think the reason a lot of people don't like trends/stats are because they're so broad and self-serving but believe me, I would have been much more encouraged by baseballguy's original post had it anything to do with stats or trends as opposed to, "No way does Indiana win tonight. They have two banged up players, and are playing horribly". Your logic is less subjective if no less faulty. Let's look at the stat of -5 or more favs being 145-36 SU at home in the playoffs. On it's face, along the lines of what WinkyD said, it means you win 3 of 4 times, 75 percent which means your one loss swallows up most of your payout. More importantly is the -5 OR MORE part. I gotta believe if you broke this stat down further, the record of teams favored by, say, -8.5 have a better record in the same situation than the -5 favs, yet your stat lumps them together.
I can see maybe using a trend to support what I think about a game I already like, but usually they're nothing to base a play on.
I think the reason a lot of people don't like trends/stats are because they're so broad and self-serving but believe me, I would have been much more encouraged by baseballguy's original post had it anything to do with stats or trends as opposed to, "No way does Indiana win tonight. They have two banged up players, and are playing horribly". Your logic is less subjective if no less faulty. Let's look at the stat of -5 or more favs being 145-36 SU at home in the playoffs. On it's face, along the lines of what WinkyD said, it means you win 3 of 4 times, 75 percent which means your one loss swallows up most of your payout. More importantly is the -5 OR MORE part. I gotta believe if you broke this stat down further, the record of teams favored by, say, -8.5 have a better record in the same situation than the -5 favs, yet your stat lumps them together.
I can see maybe using a trend to support what I think about a game I already like, but usually they're nothing to base a play on.
WW While I understand his capping method may be flawed, it shouldn't undermine the fact that he made a solid call and won. For anyone to state that a -300 play is always a bad play is simply not true. If I get Randy Johnson vs. Montreal at -300, I should lay off? The Lakers vs. anyone at -300 is a bad play? Come on. I think in an effort to discredit certain cappers on this board people sometimes go a little overboard in their comments.
YES taking Randy Johnson -300 vs. Montreal blindly at any price just because "Johnson's good and Montreal's bad" is a horrible play!
What if it was -1000? -5000??
Thinking like that is why the bookie is driving the BMW and the player is driving the Ford Fiesta.
Here's an analogy for that. Say you have a roulette wheel where 60% of the colors are black, but red pays 3:1 and black is 1:3. Which is the smarter color to bet for 10 spins?
You would laugh at the guy betting black!
What if it was -1000? -5000??
Thinking like that is why the bookie is driving the BMW and the player is driving the Ford Fiesta.
Here's an analogy for that. Say you have a roulette wheel where 60% of the colors are black, but red pays 3:1 and black is 1:3. Which is the smarter color to bet for 10 spins?
You would laugh at the guy betting black!
I thought it was a good play. You just got the feeling after watching the series that Detroit had Indy's number and there really wasn't much they'd be able to do to challenge Detroit in that game. I wouldn't call it a lock, but I fealt it was about 85% certain that Detroit would win, not sure if that's worth -300 or not. That's why I'm a square and none of you guys are.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> it shouldn't undermine the fact that he made a solid call and won. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
SEC,
It won, yes...solid call, especially for the reason's he gave, no. Hence the discussion.
If you're a ends-justify-the-means gambler that beleives a win MAKES the call solid, then we must agree to disagree - end of debate. But I believe a solid play is solid before the outcome is ever determined and that your individual capping/reasons make all the difference in the world.
Here we had a case where both teams were playing sub-par ball, both teams had not only covered but won SU on each others court in the series and the ML winner took the lead with minutes to go in the 4th. Solid play? And we got a guy chirping "lock" and "hope you took my advice"? No wonder he caught a little shit from the gallery. He's lucky Artest thru the elbow.
The reason for the play means everything. A guy picks a Qantas flight base on the airlines service record, it's planes safety record and value of the ticket, while another guys picks the same flight because of the cute bear on the side of the plane. Who are you going to listen to when it comes time to rent a car?
Believe me, theory is easier than practice and I can be as square as they come. I'm just trying to be aware of existing strategies as opposed to inventing new ones.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The Lakers vs. anyone at -300 is a bad play? Come on <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I'd never make such a blanket statemnt but let's talk again before games 3 and 4 in the series. I might take your bet.
SEC,
It won, yes...solid call, especially for the reason's he gave, no. Hence the discussion.
If you're a ends-justify-the-means gambler that beleives a win MAKES the call solid, then we must agree to disagree - end of debate. But I believe a solid play is solid before the outcome is ever determined and that your individual capping/reasons make all the difference in the world.
Here we had a case where both teams were playing sub-par ball, both teams had not only covered but won SU on each others court in the series and the ML winner took the lead with minutes to go in the 4th. Solid play? And we got a guy chirping "lock" and "hope you took my advice"? No wonder he caught a little shit from the gallery. He's lucky Artest thru the elbow.
The reason for the play means everything. A guy picks a Qantas flight base on the airlines service record, it's planes safety record and value of the ticket, while another guys picks the same flight because of the cute bear on the side of the plane. Who are you going to listen to when it comes time to rent a car?
Believe me, theory is easier than practice and I can be as square as they come. I'm just trying to be aware of existing strategies as opposed to inventing new ones.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The Lakers vs. anyone at -300 is a bad play? Come on <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I'd never make such a blanket statemnt but let's talk again before games 3 and 4 in the series. I might take your bet.
