How much of a difference did having Lee and Bogut out of the line-up have on the Chicago/GS game tonight??
Injuries are overrated by the public. Last year San Antonio was missing a bunch of starters against GS, line went from +3 to +7. San Antonio won straight up.
Bench players step up all the time. Line makers adjust the odds, the public over reacts, and many times the team with the missing starters covers and/or wins the game.
I liked GS before the injury announcement, and liked it even more when the lines dropped 3 points.
As for San Antonio tonight, playing a BTB road game after playing 2OT the previous night was far more detrimental than having a couple starters out. The game I mentioned from last year included Duncan in street clothes, and the Spurs won anyway.
Nice try son, but your argument still doesn't work.
Boozer was out for Chicago, probably negates Lee.
I'm not trying to argue w you, but for my money I like to know who I in and out, especially starters. Your random anecdotal example (Duncan was out last yr and they still covered) is worth v little. Why didn't you post how much you liked G St when the line dropped last night? Saying it after the game isn"t worth much
Where do you post our picks?
I'm not trying to argue w you, but for my money I like to know who I in and out, especially starters. Your random anecdotal example (Duncan was out last yr and they still covered) is worth v little. Why didn't you post how much you liked G St when the line dropped last night? Saying it after the game isn"t worth much
Where do you post our picks?
No.
Last year's Spurs game isn't one random occurrence. It happens all the time. Tonight's Lakers game another example. Young and Gasol were out. They won straight up, off a btb, as 4 point dogs. Harden was a late scratch vs San Antonio last week, the line flipped from Houston -2 to +2, and Houston wins outright. Yet another overreaction, from the line maker and the public, and the people betting against the team missing a starter once again gets burned.
Players miss games plenty, and the backups step right in and perform. The lines get adjusted, it creates value, and the savvy bettor notices this and uses it to their advantage. I'm not going to list every game where a starter(s) were missing and tally up the record. I'm also not saying that the team wins/covers every time. However, this situation is overblown.
The GS announcement was made about an hour before game time. I don't post picks. I will give an opinion every so often. There are plenty of people that post, the forum doesn't need one more.
i agree with biz..i dont take into consideration injuries or players sittng out..i let my system do the thinking for me..so far it seems to work..had a few bad days but overall im looking pretty decent..i still have a long ways to go but i feel like im heading in the right direction..this is a marathon not a sprint..sound handicapping and bankroll management is the key to being successfull..the goal is to average between 55% and 60% long term..and as always your feedback is welcome..
Air is correct, its a marathon not a sprint. (My night was not a good one)
One last thing about missing starters, it affects totals too. Scrubs asked about Irving, and I said it doesn't matter. One, backups get a chance to play more minutes and often times seize the opportunity and do well. Jarett Jack gets more minutes, Waiters too. These guys are scorers and poor defenders.
Secondly, the total gets over adjusted. Last night's GS game went from 192 down to 186. The game landed on 189, which created value for Over players. The game featured not 1 but 2 referees that have a high percentage of overs, so the added line value after the announcement made for the kind of value that enabled Over players to cash instead of lose.
Scrubs, not trying to pick a fight, just bringing up another side of the discussion that perhaps will enlighten some people.
One last thing about missing starters, it affects totals too. Scrubs asked about Irving, and I said it doesn't matter. One, backups get a chance to play more minutes and often times seize the opportunity and do well. Jarett Jack gets more minutes, Waiters too. These guys are scorers and poor defenders.
Secondly, the total gets over adjusted. Last night's GS game went from 192 down to 186. The game landed on 189, which created value for Over players. The game featured not 1 but 2 referees that have a high percentage of overs, so the added line value after the announcement made for the kind of value that enabled Over players to cash instead of lose.
Scrubs, not trying to pick a fight, just bringing up another side of the discussion that perhaps will enlighten some people.
Scrubs,
Sorry I didn't respond. I played a bunch of games, was tracking them, and completely forgot to check this thread today.
I played Portland at +1 before the announcement and subsequent line move. They fit a very profitable angle for me, whether they were a dog or favorite. So, this particular situation, 2 players out for Minny wouldn't have changed my play.
GS a different situation. The game is over, so any comment now would be pointless.
I was also on SA today and the Under. Lost both in ridiculous fashion. Under 193, 81 point 1H, AND IT FLIES OVER.
Fullerton St another ridiculous one, getting 4, missing FTs and giving up a game tying 3 to send it into OT and the expected non-cover. Tenn Martin missed FTs and missed the cover by 1. UTSA missed by a point. A 10-10 day, also known as a TWOT (Total Waste Of Time)
Sorry I didn't respond. I played a bunch of games, was tracking them, and completely forgot to check this thread today.
I played Portland at +1 before the announcement and subsequent line move. They fit a very profitable angle for me, whether they were a dog or favorite. So, this particular situation, 2 players out for Minny wouldn't have changed my play.
GS a different situation. The game is over, so any comment now would be pointless.
I was also on SA today and the Under. Lost both in ridiculous fashion. Under 193, 81 point 1H, AND IT FLIES OVER.
Fullerton St another ridiculous one, getting 4, missing FTs and giving up a game tying 3 to send it into OT and the expected non-cover. Tenn Martin missed FTs and missed the cover by 1. UTSA missed by a point. A 10-10 day, also known as a TWOT (Total Waste Of Time)
