Or maybe it's just variance and the best team - or the team you see the value with - doesn't always win. I'm not someone who thinks a wager was bad just because it lost. What if you bet a +200 dog that you knew was guaranteed to win only 40% of the time. That would still be a great wager, right? Even though you'd lose more games than you'd win. Would that be a bad wager just because it lost the first game you tried it, or even the first 2? Of course not. I gather based on your fan base in here that you're experienced enough to know all this on your own, but I'm a bit mystified as to why you're willing to abandon a strategy or betting angle just because a game lost. Chin up dude, and on to Thursday.
All is good. I run my two sets of numbers on ever game.
I see where they match up. And I create and set my own
personal line (side and total) for each and every game. I look
to see where my line is different from Vegas/Offshore. Then
I go back to my two sets of numbers and see how it compares
to what my line is.
In Baseball I would always run in to one team or maybe two that my
line and my two sets of numbers would always project that team to
be either way stronger or way weaker than what they actually were.
Detroit is a good team. But a jinx team of sorts for me. I went back
and looked at notes of games I lined for them (leans that i did not play)
And my line seems to always be way off for them whether they won or lost.
I always try to spot stuff like that and be aware of it.
GL thursdsy wagets.