Would you rather take +7 -110 on an NBA game or +6.5 -103?sherman said:
Would yor rather take +14 -110 on an NBA game or +13.5 -103?
If certain numbers in the NBA are NOT as key as others as you say, both of your answers should contain the same vig............for your sake, hope you do not pick the same vig.
4 games (out of 25) in the last 3 days have landed '7'. For the non-mathematical, that's 16%. Obviously, that's a bit overrepresentative, but not by all that much.
I also remember seeing somewhere that very nearly HALF of all NBA games are decided by single digits. When you consider that '1' is pretty uncommon, that gives you a good idea of why all of those numbers in there are important, especially for a game that is lined with a solid number.
Many NBA games have such tight lines that the only edge you can really get is getting a rogue number and/or middling.
I also remember seeing somewhere that very nearly HALF of all NBA games are decided by single digits. When you consider that '1' is pretty uncommon, that gives you a good idea of why all of those numbers in there are important, especially for a game that is lined with a solid number.
Many NBA games have such tight lines that the only edge you can really get is getting a rogue number and/or middling.
lol,
JJ, explain this,
I have hit quite a few middles this year in the NBA, enough to double my bankroll, by middling 1.5 points in the NBA while laying no more than -115 (total vig with both bets)....
perhaps just BS, but I can tell you that the game falls close to the posted number a remarkable amount of times.....
& again, these are usually single digit margins of victory....
JJ, explain this,
I have hit quite a few middles this year in the NBA, enough to double my bankroll, by middling 1.5 points in the NBA while laying no more than -115 (total vig with both bets)....
perhaps just BS, but I can tell you that the game falls close to the posted number a remarkable amount of times.....
& again, these are usually single digit margins of victory....
perhaps just BS, but I can tell you that the game falls close to the posted number a remarkable amount of times.....
i believe thats because you notice it when it does but think nothing of it when it doesnt...
similar to when u get a bad beat, u tend to remember those more vividly then we it falls your way....
just human nature.....
i believe thats because you notice it when it does but think nothing of it when it doesnt...
similar to when u get a bad beat, u tend to remember those more vividly then we it falls your way....
just human nature.....
Wong's book talks about the frequency of spreads being hit in the NFL. He talks about how much a half point is worth in that sport based upon those numbers.
I believe if the same study were done for the NBA in the last 10 years we would get a definitive answer on this topic. Perhaps that is a chapter in my next book.
I believe if the same study were done for the NBA in the last 10 years we would get a definitive answer on this topic. Perhaps that is a chapter in my next book.
For NBA games, I show sides to be worth about 8-9 cents. This is just on average as certain numbers (7 for example) are obviously worth more than others. I show totals to be worth about 5 cents. This is why it's especially bad to buy points for NBA totals.
For NBA halves, I show about 10-11 cents for sides and about 9 cents for totals.
For NBA quarters, I show about 13 cents for both sides and totals.
For NBA halves, I show about 10-11 cents for sides and about 9 cents for totals.
For NBA quarters, I show about 13 cents for both sides and totals.
