NO is 4-3 at home with wins coming against the mighty 49ers, Raiders, and Chargers (also TB); GB is 3-4 on the road and they've won in Seattle and Denver, two tough places to play (also Detroit).
Brees is better than Rodgers because of experience and the fact that his O line averages less than a sack/game...but Rodgers is no slouch.
Biggest factors for me:
1) Takeaway margins: GB=+7; NO=-5
2) GB is 3-2 in their past 5 games with the 2 losses coming at a combined total of FOUR points AT Tennessee and AT Minnesota.
3) NO is 3-3 in their past 6 games with their wins coming from Oakland, SD, and KC, while losing to Atlanta, Carolina, and Minny.
**If you really look at #'s 2 & 3, it seems like these are two teams headed in opposite directions...I think GB is the team to beat tonight.
Wow, kinda looks like what I just wrote:
New Orleans has a terrible defense and with Reggie Bush being out will have continued troubles running the ball. GB Defense is 3rd in the league at stopping the pass. New Orleans hasn't beaten anyone this year if you ask me, they beat on teams with questionable Defenses-- SanFran, Oakland, SanDiego, and KC. The only win they have against a team with a winning record is TampaBay. They have lost to Washing, DENVER, Minnesota, Carolina and Atlanta. What do the last three have in common? Solid defenses. I know Atlanta's defense isn't that impressive, but they won the turnover battle and GreenBay is good at that.
Passing game favors New Orleans
Defense Favors Green Bay
Special Teams Favors Green Bay
RunningBack Favors Green Bay
Turnover Ratio Favors GreenBay (GB +7, NO -5)
I'm taking GreenBay.
Thanks. You're right...this is what I get for looking at things while working. I inadvertently counted pre-season games in those figures.
It doesn't change the tone of my thoughts though...the 3 games that GB has lost on the road are all against teams of higher caliber than NO (TB, TEN, MIN)...and those losses were by 9, 3, and 1 point, respectively.
I still think these teams are headed in different directions...but that's why they play the game.
This is my first post on here, but I have been following this site for a while...im usually on covers, but Im a huge packer fan(not biast) but figured I would share my insight on tonights game for a little thank you to all the people I follow in here...
know two teams and thats the Packers (& UGA Bulldogs)...I only bet on them when I think they can win, (I dont ever bet against them - just sucks when you have to do that.) Tonight, I'm betting on them.
So I hope I can help some of you...
Every week that goes bye, everyone focuses on how Aaron Rodgers is trying to fill Brett Favres shoes. Nobody focuses on the Pack's defense. Teams are noticing it, but not taking it serious enough. Key focuses on the game tonight:
GreenBay:
Secondary - IMO, these guys are the BEST in the league. This secondary cosists of Woodson, Bigby, Harris, and another guy named Nick Collins. These guys are smart, hard hitting, fast, and know how to get yardage from an interception/fumble. These guys rank third in interceptions(16), Woodson and Collins with 5 each(tied for first), 3rd in pass defense(176 yds/g - behind Pitt and TB),
MLB - Nick Barnett is injured. So where's that take the Packers? AJ Hawk. Hawk has moved to where he is used to being, where he can use his speed strength at his peak. He showed us that last weekend against the Bears. I know the Bears are a weak team to judge against, but he did a great job against them, and he is a huge presence that GB needed when Barnett got injured.
Aaron Rodgers - What can I say? He has been underestimated. He has a 94.5 Rating with 15 TDs and 6 INTs this season. He knows how to control a tempo, he's calm, he's smart, and he controls the ball inside the pocket. This Packer O-line is getting better every game, not allowing a sack last week vs the Bears D. Rodgers, finally, got to take every snap during practice this week. His first time since injurying that shoulder back in week 4.
Ryan Grant - Its about time! Grant finally looks like he did last year. He is finally healthy, and like I said above, the O-line is getting better every game. Although he only averages 3.9 yds a game this season, he has averaged 5.1 since the bye week against some pretty good defenses( TEN, CHI, MIN). He is finally the impact player that defenses are recognizing again.
Turnover Margin +7 (best in the NFC; 4th in the league)
NewOrleans:
Defense - Saints rush defense ranks 18th with 111.0 yds/game. They only have 8 sacks on the year(this ranks 2nd to last). They dont pressure the QB!! If they want to start winning, they are going to have to start playing some defense. This defense only has 12 takeaways which ranks 12th in the NFC.
Drew Brees - Congrats Drew. He has the most yards thrown in the first 10 games of the season. Brees is 4th in the league with a 95.4 rating. He is 6th in compl% with 66.8%. He is well aware of what he needs to do to win games. Drew Brees could get MVP, if his team was better. A big factor in his success is that he doesnt get sacked. He has been sacked only 8 times this season. But, he does have 11 INTs, but thats probably because they are 80/20 pass offense. Tonight, he's going against NFC's best pass defense, so this is a huge test for him.
WR/RB - Who are these guys? With all the injuries, the Saints have had to relate to 2nd string and 3rd string guys like Henderson and Moore. Dont get me wrong, these guys are athletic, but its a god thing they have Drew Brees to throw to them. Duece does what Duece does. But, the injuries to Shockey, Colston, and now Bush have really impacted the Saints. I doubt Bush plays tonight, so look for Pierre Thomas or Duece to get a couple carries. I havent seen much from Colston since his surgery, and now he has a knee problem, and was limited in practice all week, so I still dont expect much from him. And, Shockey hasnt had a TD all year! If this team wants to be a playoff contender, they better turn things around with their franchise players.
Turnover Margin -5 (25th in the league)
My Prediction:
I see this game to be somewhat of a shootout. I see Green Bay taking an early lead a keeping it throughout the game. Brees is going to have a tough time with Green Bays stingy pass defense. Green Bay puts some pressure on Brees tonight and forces him to turn the ball over. Brees said in an interveiw that if they want to make it to the playoffs, they have to win this game, I dont see that happening tonight. Green Bay is a playoff calibur TEAM, Saints are a playoff calibur OFFENSE.
This is the point in the season where teams show their true colors and the Saints defense isnt going to be enough to stop the Packers progressively getting better offense. IMO, Brees still throws a couple TDs, but GB's defense causes turnovers for touchdowns and Ryan Grant runs good enough for Rodgers to throw deep on the Saints secondary.
GB 34
NO 23
GB ML & MNF OVER 51
GL to ALL, hope this helped some of you!
know two teams and thats the Packers (& UGA Bulldogs)...I only bet on them when I think they can win, (I dont ever bet against them - just sucks when you have to do that.) Tonight, I'm betting on them.
So I hope I can help some of you...
Every week that goes bye, everyone focuses on how Aaron Rodgers is trying to fill Brett Favres shoes. Nobody focuses on the Pack's defense. Teams are noticing it, but not taking it serious enough. Key focuses on the game tonight:
GreenBay:
Secondary - IMO, these guys are the BEST in the league. This secondary cosists of Woodson, Bigby, Harris, and another guy named Nick Collins. These guys are smart, hard hitting, fast, and know how to get yardage from an interception/fumble. These guys rank third in interceptions(16), Woodson and Collins with 5 each(tied for first), 3rd in pass defense(176 yds/g - behind Pitt and TB),
MLB - Nick Barnett is injured. So where's that take the Packers? AJ Hawk. Hawk has moved to where he is used to being, where he can use his speed strength at his peak. He showed us that last weekend against the Bears. I know the Bears are a weak team to judge against, but he did a great job against them, and he is a huge presence that GB needed when Barnett got injured.
Aaron Rodgers - What can I say? He has been underestimated. He has a 94.5 Rating with 15 TDs and 6 INTs this season. He knows how to control a tempo, he's calm, he's smart, and he controls the ball inside the pocket. This Packer O-line is getting better every game, not allowing a sack last week vs the Bears D. Rodgers, finally, got to take every snap during practice this week. His first time since injurying that shoulder back in week 4.
Ryan Grant - Its about time! Grant finally looks like he did last year. He is finally healthy, and like I said above, the O-line is getting better every game. Although he only averages 3.9 yds a game this season, he has averaged 5.1 since the bye week against some pretty good defenses( TEN, CHI, MIN). He is finally the impact player that defenses are recognizing again.
Turnover Margin +7 (best in the NFC; 4th in the league)
NewOrleans:
Defense - Saints rush defense ranks 18th with 111.0 yds/game. They only have 8 sacks on the year(this ranks 2nd to last). They dont pressure the QB!! If they want to start winning, they are going to have to start playing some defense. This defense only has 12 takeaways which ranks 12th in the NFC.
Drew Brees - Congrats Drew. He has the most yards thrown in the first 10 games of the season. Brees is 4th in the league with a 95.4 rating. He is 6th in compl% with 66.8%. He is well aware of what he needs to do to win games. Drew Brees could get MVP, if his team was better. A big factor in his success is that he doesnt get sacked. He has been sacked only 8 times this season. But, he does have 11 INTs, but thats probably because they are 80/20 pass offense. Tonight, he's going against NFC's best pass defense, so this is a huge test for him.
WR/RB - Who are these guys? With all the injuries, the Saints have had to relate to 2nd string and 3rd string guys like Henderson and Moore. Dont get me wrong, these guys are athletic, but its a god thing they have Drew Brees to throw to them. Duece does what Duece does. But, the injuries to Shockey, Colston, and now Bush have really impacted the Saints. I doubt Bush plays tonight, so look for Pierre Thomas or Duece to get a couple carries. I havent seen much from Colston since his surgery, and now he has a knee problem, and was limited in practice all week, so I still dont expect much from him. And, Shockey hasnt had a TD all year! If this team wants to be a playoff contender, they better turn things around with their franchise players.
Turnover Margin -5 (25th in the league)
My Prediction:
I see this game to be somewhat of a shootout. I see Green Bay taking an early lead a keeping it throughout the game. Brees is going to have a tough time with Green Bays stingy pass defense. Green Bay puts some pressure on Brees tonight and forces him to turn the ball over. Brees said in an interveiw that if they want to make it to the playoffs, they have to win this game, I dont see that happening tonight. Green Bay is a playoff calibur TEAM, Saints are a playoff calibur OFFENSE.
This is the point in the season where teams show their true colors and the Saints defense isnt going to be enough to stop the Packers progressively getting better offense. IMO, Brees still throws a couple TDs, but GB's defense causes turnovers for touchdowns and Ryan Grant runs good enough for Rodgers to throw deep on the Saints secondary.
GB 34
NO 23
GB ML & MNF OVER 51
GL to ALL, hope this helped some of you!
