Lets see who is the first SHARP to answer this!!

[drunkguy]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by lurkerforages:
seems silly to guess when you can just look at a database and it will tell you how often a number pushed or was half a point away.
As far as I can remember Wong has done no work on point spreads in the NBA.
I believe he has done some work on game totals.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I am not sure what he has said on his website or otherwise regarding point value in hoops. I was only suggesting that his treatment of NFL % (in his book) is a good approach to look at.

 

[lurkerforages]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Wong is on record as stating apoint is worth on avg 3.5% on sides in the NBA.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

SPV, Can you show me exactly where this is quoted?
If its on record then it should be easy to point out.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>It is not a guess, it is called deductive reasoning. It is the foundation of modern mathmematics.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Sorry, your "deductive reasoning" based on no data is way off.

Databases do tell you what has happened such as how frequently NFL games finish on 3 or 7 or end in a total of 37 or 41.
They tell you its unlikley a mavs game will finish at 140 or a spurs game at 240
Do you think data is pointless then throw away all the math.

If you do not use any data to make an estimate then its purely a guess based on no data!

Databases are not perfect but they are useful.

 

[Fishhead]

AND ALL THIS GETS US BACK TO THE VERY FIRST POST IN THIS THREAD!!!


YOU DO NOT WANT TO PAY OVER SIX CENTS FOR A HALF POINT IN THE NBA!!

I CANNOT SPELL THIS OUT ANY EASIER!!!

SO IN TURN YOU DO NOT WANT TO PAY OVER 12 CENT FOR A POINT AND 18 POINTS FOR 1.5 POINT!!

THAT IS WHY -106 IS HUGE COMPARED TO -107 WHEN YOUR BETTING AT A CERTAIN POINTSPREAD!!!!!

IT IS THE WHOLE DIFFERENCE OF PUTTING YOURSELF IN A LONGTERM WIN POSITION!!

GRIND GRIND GRIND!!

WOW!!

NOT THAT COMPLICATED FOLKS!!!

 

[SportSavant]

Fish, Lurker

I am looking at the Under in the Indiana @ Chicago matchup in the NBA.

I have two options

u 177.5 -102
u 178 -110

which is the better bet?

 

[THE SHRINK]

SportsSavant,

I don't think it's worth 8 cents but it's close...

I would choose the 177.5 -102

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Sorry, your "deductive reasoning" based on no data is way off.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Well since I have zero desire to compute the worth based on historical results, we will all have to assume you are correct. Although if my estimate was indeed way off, it is likely that your data is inaccurate. If a point is worth 3.8% for a game, which I know for fact that it is worth between 3.6% and 3.8%, than it is not possible for my estimate to be way off. Two halves make up a game, the values of points in either half or any quarter for that matter are a fucntion of their worth for the game.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Databases do tell you what has happened such as how frequently NFL games finish on 3 or 7 or end in a total of 37 or 41.
They tell you its unlikley a mavs game will finish at 140 or a spurs game at 240<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

yes databases are an excellent means to determine what has already happened.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Do you think data is pointless then throw away all the math.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I use database information every single day, for my work in the stock markets and in my horse racing action, I feel that for some reason you are underestimating my experience. It is merely one tool in a box full.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>If you do not use any data to make an estimate then its purely a guess based on no data!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The question is not one of using previous information to predict the future, I can calculate the value of just abt any derivative bet, based on the worth of the underlying bet, and in sports these values rarely change. A half point in the NBA is worth almost exactly what it was 10 yrs ago, and figures to be worth close to that ten yrs from now. From that I can figure out the value of any halftime, quarter line, or more importantly for my use any interactive line at any moment in time.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Databases are not perfect but they are useful.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I never said they weren't useful, merely that they are great at telling you what already happened.

Lastly, Wong is on record at his site and it is reposted here in the tech forum, I do not have any desire to look for it, but if you are really curious, start with page 13 in the tech forum and work your way to the current threads. If you do that and cannot find it, I will put forth an effort.

[This message was edited by Sodium Pentethol V on February 10, 2004 at 05:12 PM.]

 

[Tekari]

Say you are playing IIS at -105, and skybook for the free 1/2 point. When is it better to get 1/2 point better at -110?

im sure +7.5 -110 is better than +7 -105 but is this true for all numbers?

Or just numbers under 10. I would assume +15 -105 is better than +15.5 -110.

Anyone have this figured out?

 

[Fishhead]

TEKARI-

For what I described above( SIX CENTS per half point), the cut-off is BASICALLY at spreads no higher than -10.

Your extreme LIVE pointspread numbers will be 2, and 5-8.

If your only paying SIX cents or LESS on ANY of these numbers for a half point.......TAKE IT!

 

[Fishhead]

To answer your question further, you will see the biggest variance in the cost of a half point when you go from -10 to ANYthing over -11.5

 

[miaplus3]

Let me ask this, which is less of two evils
1) 7 pt football tease
-or-
2) 5 pt basketball tease

 

[Fishhead]

Miaplus-

A 7 point teaser in football at anything -115 or less is a tremendous betting oppurtunity!!!

A few places offshore you will even find -7 -110 and one that I would recommend is ABC ISLANDS.

Any 6 point EVEN money teasers in football are also a great play.

REMEMBER, THIS IS ONLY IN THE NFL, NOT NCAA!!

I would recommend you stay far away from basketball teasers in 99% of the cases.