| Sweet 16 Games Only |
| When CLOSING TOTAL ONLY is 138 or less |
| and Dog is getting 3 Pts or More |
| Dog is 29-12 Ats … 2019 / 1-0 Ats / 2021 1-0 Ats / 2022 NONE/ 2023 2-1 Ats |
| Sweet 16 Returnees off a Win of 10 Pts or Less |
| in Round of 32 Game are 26-38-2 ATS / 2022 1-0 ATS / 2023 0-1 Ats |
| Sweet 16 ….. #12 seeds are 2-20 SU overall and 0-20 SU when they face a #1 seed. |
| If Grand Canyon beats Alabama tonight |
| Sweet 16 … # 2 vs # 3 Seeds |
| # 2 Seeds WIN SU … 32-18 |
| 2 Tenn vs 3 Creighton |
| 2 Iowa St vs 3 ILL |
| Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds, |
| however, they have been very competitive as underdogs, |
| going 15-7-1 ATS (68%) in that role since 2011/ 0-1 in 2023 |
| Sweet 16 |
| Better-seeded teams playing as underdogs or pick ’ems in Sweet 16 games are on a 7-1 SU |
| and ATS (88%) / Under is 6-2 |
All together .... Sweet 16 Trends for you guys ...
| Sweet 16 Trends |
| SWEET 16 returnees Favorites off a SU win of 20 > pts are 0-6 ATS … None in 2023 |
| Gonzaga 89-68 Round of 32 over Kansas |
| SD ST 85-57 Round of 32 over Yale |
| $25 Purdue - 4 |
| NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Round notes |
| • No. 1 Seeds coming off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are 22-8 ATS( Your Call ) |
| Purdue |
| UConn |
| NC |
| NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 |
| • No. 10 or worse seed dogs of 4-points or greater, are 12-4 ATS |
| 2021 3-1 Ats ….2022 1-1 Ats ….2023 0-1 Ats |
| 11 Seed Nc St … Your Call |
| NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 |
| • Favorites off a SU win of 20 or more points are 3-8 ATS |
| … 2021 1-0 Ats … 2022 None / 2023 0-1 Ats |
| Purdue |
| Illinois |
| Sweet 16 Trends |
| Sweet 16 favorites of 8 points or more are on a 26-8-3 UNDER (76%) |
| If Tailing |
| Under SD ST / UConn 136 |
| Sweet 16 Games Only |
| When CLOSING TOTAL ONLY is 138 or less |
| and Dog is getting 3 Pts or More |
| Dog is 29-12 Ats … 2019 / 1-0 Ats / 2021 1-0 Ats / 2022 NONE/ 2023 2-1 Ats |
| Conn - 10 / 136 ….. If Tailing … SD ST + 10 would be the play |
| Houston - 4 / 134 ….If Tailing … Duke + 4 would be the play |
| Sweet 16 Returnees off a Win of 10 Pts or Less |
| in Round of 32 Game are 26-38-2 ATS / 2022 1-0 ATS / 2023 0-1 Ats |
| If Tailing … Duke + 4 |
| Sweet 16 … # 2 vs # 3 Seeds |
| # 2 Seeds WIN SU … 32-18 |
| 2 Tenn vs 3 Creighton |
| 2 Iowa St vs 3 ILL |
| Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds, |
| however, they have been very competitive as underdogs, |
| going 15-7-1 ATS (68%) in that role since 2011/ 0-1 in 2023 |
| If Tailing NC ST + 6.5 |
All I'm looking for is thumbs up or small feedback and since 4 or 5 guys have an interest
I will share this personal dig of mine for Elite 8 Games only
if 1 Seed faces a 2 Seed
| When 1 vs 2 Seed in Elite 8 Game Only | ||||
| Total of combined Adj O and Adj D | ||||
| is between 20 to 47 Pt Rank Advantage | ||||
| Lower Rank Advantage | ||||
| Team is 5-1 Straight Up | ||||
| Adding Both Adj O and Adj D | ||||
| Ranks / The Lower Total | ||||
| is 13-5 SU | ||||
| No 1 vs 2 Seed Matchups in Elite 8 since 2019/ wow | ||||
| This Year's Poss 1 vs 2 Seed Matchups ( 4 Possible ?? ) | ||||
| Teams | Adj O | Adj D | Total Combined Rank | |
| 1 Seed Conn | 2 | 8 | 10 | Conn in a 5-1 SU Spot / 40 Combined Rank Pts Better |
| 2 Seed Iowa St | 49 | 1 | 50 | |
| 1 Seed Houston | 14 | 2 | 16 | Hou in a 5-1 SU Spot / 24 Combined Rank Pts Better |
| 2 Seed Marquette | 19 | 21 | 40 | |
| 1 Seed North Carolina | 16 | 6 | 22 | |
| 2 Seed Arizona | 9 | 10 | 19 | Arizona in 13-5 SU Trend |
| 1 Seed Purdue | 3 | 16 | 19 | |
| 2 Seed Tennessee | 30 | 3 | 33 | Purdue in a 13-5 Trend |
| Champion / Conference / Conf Adj Em # |
| Adj Em ….means Adjusted Efficiency Margin |
| 2023 Conn / Big East / Conf Adj Em + 14 |
| 2022 Kansas / Big 12 / Conf Adj Em + 19 |
| 2021 Baylor / Big 12 / Conf Adj Em + 17 |
| 2019 Virginia / ACC / Conf Adj Em + 15 |
| 2018 Villanova / Big East / Conf Adj Em + 15 |
| 2017 North Carolina / ACC / Conf Adj Em + 16 |
| 2016 Villanova / Big East / Conf Adj Em + 14 |
| 2015 Duke / ACC / Conf Adj Em + 14 |
| …................................................................. |
| ….................................................................. |
| 2024 Top Conferences Adjusted Efficiency Margin |
| Big 12 / Conf Adj Em + 17 |
| Big East / Conf Adj Em + 15 |
| Big 10 / Conf Adj Em + 15 |
| SEC / Conf Adj Em + 14 |
| ACC / Conf Adj Em + 12 |
| Pac 12 / Conf Adj Em + 11 |
| MWC / Conf Adj Em + 10 |
| Atl 10 / Conf Adj Em + 5 |
