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OC Dooley - "Spider"
TONIGHT’S “3 UNIT” FOOTBALL BEST BET TOTAL (Boise State at Virginia Tech UNDER 52 in an 8:05 eastern kickoff on ESPN): Last night at many offshore locations this total was as low as 50’ points and it is easy to see why we have seen “inflation” ever since. Tonight marks the second time we get to see a “non” BCS aligned school take the field who currently has a shot at participating in January’s title game. TCU has had a reputation of being one of the country’s best defensive squads but they got involved in a 30-21 shootout against a Top 25 ranked opponent (Oregon State) who does operate out of a BCS aligned conference. The entire country also got to view a pair of extremely high scoring affairs yesterday that sailed above the posted spot. Yet another reason why this particular total has risen is due to the fact that Virginia Tech’s offense scored 36+ points in each of their final 4 appearances on the field from a year ago, while Boise State topped the 40-point mark NINE different times. In the past two years Kellen Moore has been one of the nation’s most efficient quarterbacks completing more than two-thirds of his pass attempts for a Boise State attack that returns each of its top 8 pass catchers from last campaign. Tyrod Taylor of Virginia Tech had a lofty #13 ranking a year ago in pass efficiency. Despite all of these factors the bottom line is that tonight’s game is critical for both schools and the college football landscape as a whole. With so much on the line it is DEFENSIVE intensity along with special teams play that will ultimately decide the final outcome. Entering his 24th season Virginia Tech’s Bud Foster is one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation as he provides the opposition with a variety of different looks along with employing the BLITZ. Speaking of “different defensive looks” that is how Bill Belichick essentially built a dominant Super Bowl winning team in the NFL. I will admit there are many questions surrounding this year’s Virginia Tech defense as that unit is very young after suffering graduation losses, but the young personnel has a very good teacher in Bud Foster. Even with a more veteran unit on the field at this time a year ago, Virginia Tech allowed 34 points in a nationally televised opening week loss against Alabama, so the Hokies know they must improve in a critical area to have a shot at winning this evening’s contest. On the other side of the football Virginia Tech is a “throwback” team of sorts in that they rely on the running game, complete with a fullback and a tight end. Basically the Hokies line up and run right at the opposition even though they are expecting it. Virginia Tech has amazing stability on their coaching staff with the offensive coordinator (9 years coordinator and 17 with program) and running backs coach (32 years) have been around seemingly forever and know what “old style” football means. In addition V-Tech’s quarterback coach, line coach and receive4rs coach have been with the program for 5 years. When one thinks of Boise State their “spread” offense immediately comes to mind, but the DEFENSE a year ago (17 ppg allowed) was spectacular. Of course Boise State for the moment is locked in the very weak and slowly eroding Western Athletic Conference where scoreboard operators are kept busy, but tonight is a “step up” affair for the Broncos who need to show they can be physical against a BCS-league opponent. It is very rare to see the Broncos involved in a “step up” game like this and according to my database research that makes the TOTAL an excellent percentage wager. Through the years when involved in a near “pick em” spot where the line (+3/-3) is tight like tonight, Boise State is 6-0 UNDER the spot. Do I hear 7-0 UNDER anyone?!
