Kirby Zhang's NBA picks for Wed

[KirbyZhang]

Kirb,

Just wanted to take the time to say "Thanks" for all your work. Your adivce and suggestions are sound. I appreciate your record keeping which is bar none on this sight. You are a definite asset to this board.

btw, great comeback tonight.

Hey, thanks for that, it makes me doing this all the more worth it. Yeah I was kinda scared you guys would lose faith in me after having a bad night last night. Lets keep up the fight.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

In the Lakers' last 16 games following a SU loss, the under is 13-3.

 

[FalconPhan]

Kirby the spread is magic +4 and according to your prediction thats the play

 

[dnkbro]

Just letting you guys know, as a basketball fan, I would personally stay away from the Lakers tomorrow. They have shown several times this year that they cannot hold onto leads. Take a look at the Jazz series, how many times did the Lakers blow big leads? I understand that the Rockets struggle to score, and will most likely lose tomorrow night. -10 is too high though in my opinion. Just a thought, maybe I'm wrong.

Nice picks though Kirby. Props on the 3-0 you had today!

 

[FalconPhan]

so im confused kirby is magic +4 the play according to your 90-87 prediction

 

[KirbyZhang]

so im confused kirby is magic +4 the play according to your 90-87 prediction

no Boston PK is the play

 

[saka]

Killer day for Tuesdays play An awesome way to come off that shocking Monday.

Good luck to everyone for tomorrow. I got a parlay Boston Under/LAL PK.

 

[jacksonjohn]

no Boston PK is the play

When you say "pick" are you referring to the ML, because there is no "Boston PK"? Thanks and gl.

 

[KirbyZhang]

When you say "pick" are you referring to the ML, because there is no "Boston PK"? Thanks and gl.

Yes Boston PK = Boston Straight up.. or Boston ML. good luck everyone!

 

[HonestRob]

Instead of taking Boston ML, why not just buy 3 points and play Boston -1 and save some juice. Worst you could do is push that way assuming they win of course. If they lose it obv doesn't matter what you do.

 

[3peet]

Kirb,

Would u mind posting your "official plays and amounts"?

 

[knucklecup]

Kirb,

Would u mind posting your "official plays and amounts"?

+1

would definitely love to see his unitage here on the playoffs...

 

[HonestRob]

I was just messing around with some numbers for fun.

Right now Boston ML is -200. If you bought 3 points and bet Boston -1 the price is -170. In actuality how often do we think they win by exactly 1 point? Not very often. Let's say 10% of the time. So let's make an example:

We'll play the game ten times assuming they win each time. If they don't win it doesn't matter because we lose either way. We'll say these are the 10 games they win out of whatever the amount needed to play would be for them to reach 10 victories. We'll use a $100 bet to keep things simple.

If we bet Boston ML 10 times at -200 we would net $50 per bet and win a total of $500. If we bet Boston -1 at -170; 9 times we win $58.82 which equals a total of $529.38. The tenth game we push and get our money back. Even factoring in any juice we lose from the push we still make more in the longrun by taking Boston -1(buying 3 points) then by taking them ML.

 

[NicktheQuick]

Really solid point there Rob, nice post.

 

[HonestRob]

Really solid point there Rob, nice post.

Thanks. :toast:

Just to add. Out of Boston's 66 victories so far this season(playoffs included) They've only won by 1 point twice which is about 3% of the time so my 10% estimate is way too often. However as shown even if it was that high it's still more profitable to buy the points.

 

[kingking]

BOL kirby thanks a million. and yes thank you rob, GREAT stuff guys!!!!!

 

[KirbyZhang]

Thanks. :toast:

Just to add. Out of Boston's 66 victories so far this season(playoffs included) They've only won by 1 point twice which is about 3% of the time so my 10% estimate is way too often. However as shown even if it was that high it's still more profitable to buy the points.

thanks for all the work...

 

[KirbyZhang]

Kirb,

Would u mind posting your "official plays and amounts"?

here they are.... sorry i took forever to do this, I just got on here. lol


<table id="pendingWager" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="headerBG" colspan="2"> 1) BET ID=2810XXXX </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pending"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220">Parlay (3 Teams)</td> <td>05/06/09 02:12 ET</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="220"> bet 500.00 to win 1165.05 </td> <td>Result: Pending</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pendingAltColor" colspan="2"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220"> Magic(Orlando)
Celtics(Boston) </td> <td> 05/06/09(20:10 ET)
Under 188 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pending" colspan="2"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220"> Magic(Orlando)
Celtics(Boston) </td> <td> 05/06/09(20:10 ET)
Celtics(Boston) -190 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pendingAltColor" colspan="2"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220"> Rockets(Houston)
Lakers(LA) </td> <td> 05/06/09(22:40 ET)
Lakers(LA) -700 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>

<table id="pendingWager" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td class="headerBG" colspan="2"> 2) BET ID=2810XXXX </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pending"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220">Straight Wager</td> <td>05/06/09 02:12 ET</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="220"> bet 550.00 to win 500.00 </td> <td>Result: Pending</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pendingAltColor" colspan="2"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220"> Rockets(Houston)
Lakers(LA) </td> <td> 05/06/09(22:40 ET)
Over 192.5 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>​

<table id="pendingWager" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td class="headerBG" colspan="2"> 3) BET ID=2810XXXX </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pending"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220">Straight Wager</td> <td>05/06/09 02:12 ET</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="220"> bet 550.00 to win 500.00 </td> <td>Result: Pending</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="pendingAltColor" colspan="2"> <table> <tbody><tr> <td width="220"> Magic(Orlando)
Celtics(Boston) </td> <td> 05/06/09(20:10 ET)
Under 188 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>​

<table class="border" id="pagination" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="bottomBG" colspan="2" height="12">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[KirbyZhang]

I was just messing around with some numbers for fun.

Right now Boston ML is -200. If you bought 3 points and bet Boston -1 the price is -170. In actuality how often do we think they win by exactly 1 point? Not very often. Let's say 10% of the time. So let's make an example:

We'll play the game ten times assuming they win each time. If they don't win it doesn't matter because we lose either way. We'll say these are the 10 games they win out of whatever the amount needed to play would be for them to reach 10 victories. We'll use a $100 bet to keep things simple.

If we bet Boston ML 10 times at -200 we would net $50 per bet and win a total of $500. If we bet Boston -1 at -170; 9 times we win $58.82 which equals a total of $529.38. The tenth game we push and get our money back. Even factoring in any juice we lose from the push we still make more in the longrun by taking Boston -1(buying 3 points) then by taking them ML.

Rob, I was going to put money down on the Boston game, but the value is too low... if you buy the points its like 100 to win 64... boo fuck all that mess.. lol I really do appreciate your work, for a lot of people just gambling, but there's a lot of math, and work and management invovlved in order to be successful.

Kirby

 

[KirbyZhang]

+1

would definitely love to see his unitage here on the playoffs...

* 1 Unit =$250.00

today we have two unit plays... straight. and a two unit parley. Best of luck baller.