Kentucky Derby Service Plays

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Tuley

The top contenders…
The general consensus has this race coming down to the 'Fab Four' of I WANT REVENGE, who rallied from a bad start to impressively win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct; PIONEEROF THE NILE, who ruled the West Coast preps, including the Santa Anita Derby; FRIESEN FIRE, who swept the Louisiana trio of preps; and DUNKIRK, who was second in the Florida Derby and is regarded as the wise-guy horse. DESERT PARTY is considered the top international threat, though he lost to stablemate REGAL RANSOM in Dubai.

How the race will be run…
The defection of some speed horses had some people saying this could be a paceless race, but trainer Todd Pletcher's JOIN IN THE DANCE should set the early fractions. REGAL RANSOM, PAPA CLEM and MINE THAT BIRD could be among the other pace factors with I WANT REVENGE, PIONEEROF THE NILE and FRIESEN FIRE among those in the next tier. The hotter the pace, the more it sets up for closers such as DUNKIRK, MR. HOT STUFF, HOLD ME BACK, GENERAL QUARTERS, and MUSKET MAN.

My picks to win…
REGAL RANSOM should be among the early leaders, but doesn't need to be in front. And unlike JOIN IN THE DANCE, who is a sprinter, REGAL RANSOM is bred to go the distance as the son of Distorted Humor, who was also the sire of 2003 Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide. He should be able to overtake the pacesetter when he wants and the thought here is he has enough class to hold off any challengers.

PIONEEROF THE NILE beat I WANT REVENGE twice and PAPA CLEM once and had their connections fleeing California, flattering him by going on to win major prep races along the way. PIONEEROF THE NILE should be within striking distance throughout. He is my most likely winner among the top contenders, and the only question about him is if he handles the dirt as well as his previously vanquished California runners have when they left the state.

MR. HOT STUFF is the son of two-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, so there shouldn't be a question of him getting the mile-and-a-quarter distance. He should be among the late runners who could light up the tote board if he gets a faster pace to run at than he had in the Santa Anita Derby when he was still able to rally for third for the second straight race.

My long shot…
MUSKET MAN was looking like my top choice for a while as he has done everything asked of him by his connections, winning not only the Tampa Bay Derby but then the Illinois Derby as he has won five of six lifetime starts over four different tracks. I was hoping that because he didn't prep on the "major" circuits he might still fly under the radar. There appears to be more people jumping on the Musket Man bandwagon, but he should still be a value play at anything around his 20-1 morning-line odds and should be used in exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Horseplayerpro

The late defections of Quality Road and Square Eddie provided enough drama over the past few days, so Derby 135 did not need to have any more hijinx in the post position draw. Luckily for the main contenders, that was exactly the case.

None of the heavy hitters appears tremendously compromised by the 20-horse lineup as it shook out from the pill-pull and selection process. If anyone might be compromised, it could be Desert Party, who leaves from post 19 and is not a push-button type horse like Big Brown, who was much the best to overcome the 20-hole last year.

The speed of the race figures to come from posts 6-10, where Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom take up residence. Horses like Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and I Want Revenge, who leave from the 11-13 slots, figure to benefit from space opening up to their inside as the speed horses open up early.

Trainer Bob Baffert opted to go outside with Pioneerof The Nile in the No. 16. Part of the reason was to keep the horse, who has never raced on dirt, on the outside and free of the majority of kick-back that he’s never experienced. Sounds like a shrewd move and could pay dividends.

Dunkirk breaks just to Pioneerof The Nile’s inside in the 15-hole, meaning he’s first in the auxiliary starting gate and will have a bit of extra breathing room to his immediately left.

All in all, this was a non-news event from a handicapper’s standpoint.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Siegel

With the injury to Quality Road and the possibility of a wet track combined with a favorable pace scenario, Friesan Fire becomes one of our major contenders and we'll substitute the Larry Jones-trained colt for the non-starting Florida Derby winner. Drawn comfortably inside, Friesan Fire should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip and has worked well enough to expect a top effort despite a less-than-ideal layoff of seven weeks. We'll stick with Dunkirk as our top pick and continue to use I Want Revenge and long shot Mr. Hot Stuff in our exotics, along with Friesan Fire.

Therefore, our updated wagering strategy is as follows:

$20 Win Dunkirk ($20)
$5 Trifecta Key Dunkirk over Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Mr. Hot Stuff ($30)
$10 Exacta Box Dunkirk, I Want Revenge ($20)
$1 Trifecta Box Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Mr. Hot Stuff ($24)
$3 Exacta Box Dunkirk, Mr. Hot Stuff ($6)
SELECTIONS:
1. DUNKIRK 2. I WANT REVENGE 3. MR. HOT STUFF 4. FRIESAN FIRE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SAFESTWAGERS

Churchill Downs, Sat., May 2nd, 2009 Pick 3's, or Doubles:
Race 9) 3
Race 10) 3/4/6/9
Race 11) 6/11/13/16

Race 9) 7 Furlongs Humana for $ 300,000 Selections: 3/9/5/7
# 3 Informed Decision* Won last (G1 Madison) after a 6 month vacation, and may even have more pop today. Set a track record at this distance in prior.

Safer Bet:a) # 3 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics b) Exacta: 3 with 5/7/9
c) Trifecta Key:3 with 5/7/9
d) Super Key: 3 with 5/7/9

Race 10) No Bets

Race 11) 1 1/4 Miles Kentucky Derby for $2,000,000
Selections: 6/13/16/11
# 6 Freisan Fire* The two knocks on this colt are that: a) He hasn't gone the extra 1/16th mile yet,and that he's been off for 7 weeks........ We don't think it matters.He has improved in every start. You may want to go back and watch his win in the La Derby. He was wide, challenged, and then found a new gear which put him in a league of his own. The last horse he easily passed was "Papa Clem" who went and won the Ark Derby in his next start. Worked 5f on April 27th in 57/4, and was not breathing hard afterwards.... wow. # 13 I Want Revenge* This could easily be a special horse, but he has been beaten by some of these. In The Gotham, he faced some undefeated stock ( a few with possible Derby hopes) and beat them with ease, letting up at the end. In his last race he broke poorly and then weaved thru traffic for the win. Many thought this was the most dominating 3 year old win of the year. Although he was much the best, he wasn't really that far back after the start. We think he will be your luke-warm favorite.

#16 Pioneer Of The Nile* The knock is that no horse has won while switching from synthetic to dirt. But..... synthetic hasn't been around that long and the trainer (Baffert) knows what he's doing. Comes into the race with 3 wins in a row and 1.2 million in earnings.

#11 Chocolate Candy* There should be lots of early speed today. This colt can grind his way into contention. Morning-line is 20-1. This should be your best chance of an upset.

Safer Bet:a) # 6 to Win, Place or Show Exotics:
b) Exacta Box: 6/11/13/16
c) Tri Box: 6/11/13/16
d) Tri Key: 6 with 11/13/16/19
e) Super Key: 6 with 11/13/16/19

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TRACKPICKS

#6 Friesan Fire 5-1

#11 Chocolate Candy 20-1

#15 Dunkirk 4-1

#4 Advice 30-1

EXOTIC BETS

$2 TRIPLE BOX ( 6, 11, 15, 4 ) = $48

$2 EXACTA BOX ( 6, 11, 15, 4 ) = $48

$1 TRIPLE KEY > ALL / 6, 11, 5, 4 / 6, 11, 15, 4 = $216

$1 TRIPLE KEY > 6, 11, 15, 4 / 6, 1, 15, 4 / ALL = $192

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At 6:05 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the #6 horse, Friesan Fire, and we recommend an "across the board" wager -- that is, three separate wagers on him to Win, Place and Show. The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby is probably being talked about as much for who ISN'T here as who will be running. Notably absent from the 2009 version of the "Greatest Two Minutes in Sports" is the best 2-Year-Old of 2008, Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman, as well as the winner of the Florida Derby, Quality Road, and a superstar filly named Rachel Alexandra, who has opted for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. The latter is skipping the Derby even though many experts think that she may well be the best 3-year-old in the world (of any sex), and we can still remember that it was only one year ago that many people felt the same way about a filly named Eight Belles. But that horse met with a tragic end in the Derby when she broke both ankles after finishing second, and she had to be euthanized on the track. Larry Jones was the trainer of Eight Belles, and he is giving himself one final chance in 2009 to win the Derby with a colt named Friesan Fire. The Kentucky-based Jones, who does most of his racing out of the mid-Atlantic, has decided that he will be ending his horse operation, or at least as we have come to know it, after this season, and he will attempt to go out with a bang on the back of this impressive 3-year-old colt by AP Indy. Jones doesn't want to be best remembered for the Eight Belles tragedy -- after all, he did finish second to Street Sense in 2007 with a colt named Hard Spun -- so he's giving it one last shot with Friesan Fire and regular rider Gabriel Saez. Jones and Friesan Fire have one thing that the ill-fated Eight Belles and Hard Spun did not have: a relatively easy field with which to contend. Friesan Fire has done absolutely nothing wrong, having won three races in a row -- all graded stakes, and all on natural dirt -- and each one an improvement over the last. His most recent victory was the impressive seven-length runaway over a tough field in the Louisiana Derby. The only problem with that performance is that it came seven weeks ago and that is what most of his detractors have pointed to. But a 49-day layoff before the Derby is not a problem if the trainer knows how to condition his horse up to the first Saturday in May, and Jones has shown that he absolutely knows how to do this. He is following the same regimen with Friesan Fire that he undertook with Hard Spun and Eight Belles, and in this version of the Run for the Roses there is definitely no Street Sense or Big Brown to contend with at Churchill Downs. Friesan Fire was selected to start from the 6 hole, and this would appear to be a perfect spot for this stalking type of runner. He has enough tactical speed to stay close to the early pace (and there isn't a ton of early foot in this field), but also shows an explosive kick that should serve him well turning for home. He has been assigned morning line odds of 5-1, but with the layoff and the presence of horses trained by Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, and a few other big-name conditioners, don't be surprised if Friesan Fire floats up to 8-1 by post time. Regardless, this is one of the better bargains we've seen in a Derby, and the best since Giacomo won it at 50-1 odds. Take Friesan Fire "across the board." Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MeatAndPotatoes

I decided a couple of weeks ago that I will be betting Friesan Fire in the 2009 Kentucky Derby which is always run the first Saturday in May. I will be betting this horse for several reasons. The first is the trainer Larry Jones who's horses have run second in the last two(2) Kentucky Derby's. You always want to make sure you have a veteran trainer when betting the biggest horse race of the year. The second reason is I saw how fast this horse was running down the stretch in the Louisiana Derby. I have not seen a horse look that impressive in a prep race leading up to the Kentucky Derby since Barbaro won the 2006 Florida Derby. The third reason is a conspiracy theory that I really believe in. The Fair Grounds in New Orleans is now owned by Churchill Downs. There is NO DOUBT in my mind that Churchill Downs wants to make the Louisiana Derby that number one major prep race heading into the Kentucky Derby. If Friesan Fire wins the Kentucky Derby on Saturday they are well on their way to their long term goal(please note that the Fair Grounds is the only racetrack owned by Churchill Downs that has slot machines). The fourth and final reason is Friesan Fire has proven he can run on a fast or sloppy track. Nobody knows what they track conditions will look like come race time, but we all know Friesan Fire has proven himself on any track in 2009 and that is a very comforting feeling.

The Pick: Bet Friesan Fire(#6) across the board WIN - PLACE - SHOW!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Derby bill

#6 friesan fire win , place
#1 west side bernie
#12 general quarters
#13 i want revenge
#16 pioneer of the nile
bottom four horses add to the exotics

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tomlinson Rating , Which Rates a Horse's ability to Run well on a Wet Track Based on Pedigree.

(The Higher the Number, the Better)

Nowhere to Hide 480

Friesan Fire 447

General Quarters 445

Dunkirk 427

Join in the Dance 422

Flying Private 420

Mr. Hot Stuff 408

Desert Party 405

Hold Me Back 404
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Contender

On Saturday the my Derby horse I WANT REVENGE has scratched from the race-So I will use Papa-Clem on top of Friesan Fire followed by Regal Ransom,Desert Party. Ill go witn Papa clem in the Derby bol GC-
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seabass

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Derby Selections:

*Does not like track conditions, advises to scale down wage amounts*

Race 1- #7
Race 2- #2

Race 4- #9 Tip Top Hat
Race 5- #3 Mr Macool (Must be on turf)
Race 8- #4 Rasierra
Race 9- #6 Temple Street
Race 10- #4 Court Vision

Race 11-
If conditions are fair-
(Win,Place,Show)#8 Mine that Bird & #14 Atomic Rain (#16,#6,#11 for exotics)

If conditions are bad-
(win,Place,Show)#6 Firesan Fire & #3 Mr. Hot Stuff (#15,#16 for exotics)

Race 13- #7

Bellmont:

Race 1- #2
Race 2- #5
Race 3- #1 or #3
Race 4- #5
Race 6- #7
Race 8- #4
Race 9- #3 & #2
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dick Jerardi

Philadelphia Daily News Columnist
WAGERING STRATEGIES: ($100)
$40 exacta FRIESAN FIRE over GENERAL QUARTERS ($40)
$1 superfecta FRIESAN FIRE over HOLD ME BACK, MUSKET MAN, GENERAL QUARTERS, CHOCOLATE CANDY and DUNKIRK($60).
SELECTIONS:
1. FRIESAN FIRE 2. DUNKRIK 3. GENERAL QUARTERS 4. HOLD ME BACK
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gary West
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
ANALYSIS: Years ago I pointed out that no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old. It was an historical observation, not a rule, as Dunkirk could make clear Saturday. The $3.7 million yearling didn’t race as a juvenile, but his three races this year have given him an accelerated education. He raced through traffic in his debut, overcame a wide trip in his second outing and then in the Florida Derby took on Quality Road, who just might be the most talented 3-year-old in the country. And while running second there, Dunkirk indicated that despite his inexperience he could be good enough to wear the roses. The Derby is usually won with a bold and aggressive move around the second turn, and that’s exactly where Dunkirk sparkles. In the Florida Derby, he turned in an internal half-mile, from the five-furlong marker to mid-stretch, in :47.35.
MAIN CONTENDERS: I Want Revenge was nothing less than sensational in the Wood Memorial, overcoming a troubled start and advancing in traffic to power his way through a final three-eighths in :36.37. His Gotham was equally sensational, and so the worry is that he’s ready to take a step back; he has looked good here in Kentucky, but no better than some others. Pioneerof The Nile defeated I Want Revenge in California, and if he improves as some have when he makes the synthetic-to-dirt move, he’s going to be a handful. With the defection of Quality Road and Old Fashioned, the pace softens a bit, and that should enhance the chances of Friesan Fire.
VALUE PLAYS: West Side Bernie couldn’t quite stay with I Want Revenge in the stretch at Aqueduct. Still, Bernie ran the final three-eighths in :36.64. Mr. Hot Stuff finished with energy and galloped out strongly in both the Sham and the Santa Anita Derby; he has trained eagerly in Kentucky. And in the mornings here at Churchill, Desert Party has looked as good or better any other horse in the Derby.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100)
$2 Trifecta: DUNKIRK keyed with I WANT REVENGE, WEST SIDE BERNIE, PIONEEROF THE NILE, DESERT PARTY, FRIESAN FIRE and MR. HOT STUFF. ($60)
$10 Exactas: DUNKIRK over WEST SIDE BERNIE, PIONEEROF THE NILE, MR. HOT STUFF and DESERT PARTY. ($40)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Battaglia Derby Plays ( Full Card ):


1st race 4-5-1 with 4-1-3 with 2-3-7
2nd race 4-1-3 with 2-3-7 with 5-1-6
3rd race 2-3-7 with 5-1-6 with 4-2-1
4th race 5-1-6 with 4-2-1 with 3-6-7
5th race 4-2-1 with 3-6-7 with 1-4-9
6th race 3-6-7 with 1-4-9 with 2-7-6
7th race 1-4-9 with 2-7-6 with 9-3-5
8th race 2-7-6 with 9-3-5 with 6-4-8
9th race 9-3-5 with 6-4-8 with 15-6-12
10th race 6-4-8 with 15-6-12 with 1-7-3
11th race 15-6-12 with 1-7-3 with 4-5-3
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RedZone Sports: Hold Me Back (15 to 1)
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[stanz]

Kentucky Derby picks from SportsOddsAndPicks.com

#16 PIONEER OF THE NILE to Win (Morning Line 4-to-1)

#13 I WANT REVENGE to Place(Morning Line 3-to-1)

#2 MUSKET MAN to Show (Morning Line 20-to-1)

 

[SalD'Amore]

Wizard?

Complete card?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DOC's Derby

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->#6 Fire Friessen
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[stanz]

(UPDATED) Kentucky Derby picks from SportsOddsAndPicks.com

#16 PIONEER OF THE NILE to Win (Morning Line 4-to-1)

#15 DUNKIRK to Place (Morning Line 4-to-1)

#2 MUSKET MAN to Show (Morning Line 20-to-1)

 

[thekeyman]

DOC's Derby

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->#6 Fire Friessen
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you can tell they don't know horses,!!!,...they don't even know the horses name