Kentucky Derby.....144th Run For The Roses.

[Greenbacks]

Take Charge Paula

Notable achievements and interesting facts:[FONT=&quot] Take Charge Paula is a filly coming into the race with remarkably little buzz given she’s run first or second in eight of her nine races. Part of that is due to the fact that she’s won five of her six starts in races at less than a mile and has yet to win a race at a mile or longer, suggesting she has some distance limitations. But the pace in the Kentucky Oaks is not expected to be wicked, so there exists a scenario in which Take Charge Paula is close to a tepid pace and gets a nice jump on the closers. I don’t see her beating both Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou at 1 1/8 miles, but should one of them falter, Take Charge Paula is talented and tough enough to will her way into the top three. Her dam (mother) is stakes-placed sprinter Perfect Paula, by Songandaprayer, who raced exclusively at distances less than 5 ½ furlongs. Jockey Jose Ortiz finished third in the Oaks last year on Lockdown and capped a banner year with the Eclipse Award as outstanding jockey. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who in 2006 won the Belmont Stakes with Jazil and the Breeders’ Cup Classic with [/FONT]Invasor[FONT=&quot], is seeking his first Oaks win.[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

Patrona Margarita

Notable achievements and interesting facts:[FONT=&quot] Patrona Margarita scored a 23.80-1 upset victory in the Grade 2 [/FONT]Pocahontas Stakes[FONT=&quot] in September 2017 at Churchill Downs. She did not race for five months and has not returned to the winner’s circle in two start this season – a fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes and a third-place finish, beaten by 13 lengths, in the Grade 1 Central Bank Ashland Stakes on April 7. While Patrona Margarita earned a career-best 91 Equibase Speed Figure in the Rachel Alexandra, she does not appear to be at the level of the best 3-year-old fillies this year. Patrona Margarita is a half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to Texas Chrome, a multiple graded stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Bret Calhoun, who conditioned Breeders’ Cup winners Chamberlain Bridge and Dubai Majesty, will be trying for his first Kentucky Oaks win. Ricardo Santana Jr. led the recently-completed Oaklawn Park meet in wins and earnings, and is seeking his first win in the Kentucky Oaks.[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

Classy Act

Notable achievements and interesting facts:[FONT=&quot] Classy Act earned her first win in her fourth race when taking a one-mile grass race at Fair Grounds in her final race at two. She’s improved at three when switching back to the main track, winning an optional claiming race before running second in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes and fourth in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Classy Act was unchallenged on the lead in the Fair Grounds Oaks and led by a length in early stretch before fading late. It’s tough to expect her to take a significant step forward when stretching out an extra sixteenth of a mile versus better fillies in the Kentucky Oaks with more competition for the lead. See Patrona Margarita’s profile for information on Bret Calhoun. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has a Breeders’ Cup Classic win on his résumé (Fort Larned, 2012) but has not won the Kentucky Oaks.[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

Heavenhasmynikki

Notable achievements and interesting facts:[FONT=&quot] After winning her debut impressively in October and earning an 85 Equibase Speed Figure, Heavenhasmynikki was pointed to tougher competition. She earned a 92 Equibase Speed Figure for a hard-fought allowance win in January at Gulfstream Park and then stretched out from three-quarters of a mile to seven-eighths for her stakes debut in the Grade 3 [/FONT]Forward Gal Stakes[FONT=&quot] where she ran fourth, beaten by 5 ½ lengths. Trainer Anthony Quartarolo then pointed her to the one-mile, Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes, and she finished third by 3 ¾ lengths while earning her career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure. Heavenhasmynikki would need to take a big step forward to be competitive in the Kentucky Oaks, especially given the 1 1/8 miles looks like a serious question based on pedigree. Her dam (mother) was purely a sprinter and her two stakes-winning siblings both were best in sprints. Trainer Anthony Quartarolo is seeking his first graded stakes victory.[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

[FONT=&quot]Kentucky Oaks trophy.

[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Javier Castellano talks Audible (and Bolt d'Oro)</yt-formatted-string>[/h]

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">John Velazquez talks Vino Rosso.</yt-formatted-string>[/h]

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Todd Pletcher. </yt-formatted-string>[/h]

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Oaks Post Position Draw Analysis 2018.</yt-formatted-string>[/h]

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Kentucky Derby Clocker Report - April 30, 2018.</yt-formatted-string>[/h]

 

[Greenbacks]

Which Kentucky Derby Runners Would Benefit From a Wet Track?

There will probably be about 160,000 fans in attendance at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, yet there’s one uninvited guest who will hopefully stay away.
After months of prep races to determine the abilities of each starter in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, it would be frustrating, to say the least, to have Mother Nature sneak in between the twin spires with some storm clouds and turn the main track into a sea of goo next Saturday.
Looking at long-range forecasts for the Louisville area that were posted in the middle of this past week, it appears the weather should be fine for the Derby. Those predictions, of course, have been known to miss the target like Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn without his glasses, so let’s take a few minutes to see who would benefit or suffer if there’s a wet or sloppy racetrack.
For starters, chalk players will be fine. Justify, the undefeated Santa Anita Derby winner and probable betting favorite, has experience on a wet track, even though it supposedly never rains in Southern California. The son of Scat Daddy romped by 6 ½ lengths in an allowance race at Santa Anita on March 11 over a racetrack rated muddy.
For the most part, the eight prospective Derby starters who have raced on a wet track have done well on it.
One race that stands out is the lone graded 3-year-old stakes with a Derby starter that was contested on a wet track. That was the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 19. My Boy Jack, who went on to capture the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, posted a 4 ½-length victory in the Grade 3 stakes over Combatant, a possible Derby starter, on a muddy track.
Flameaway and Firenze Fire are the only ones with more than one start on an off track. Firenze Fire won the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 13 over a muddy track by a half-length, but was fourth on a wet-fast track labeled as good in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga.
Flameaway won both of his starts on a wet track at 2, winning the Grade 3 Bourbon on Oct. 8 by a nose on a sloppy track and taking the Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 18 by a length and a half on a muddy track. A key element with Flameaway’s wet-track wins is that they came in races washed off the turf, raising doubts about the quality of the competition in races that were originally scheduled to be run on a grass course.
Lone Sailor is in the same boat as Flameaway. His wet track effort was an 11-length blowout at Saratoga on Sept. 3 on a sloppy in another race that was moved from the turf course to a gooey main track.
Enticed found a muddy track waiting for him for his Sept. 4 career debut at Saratoga and promptly notched a length and three quarters victory.
Finally, Free Drop Billy ran on a wet-fast track at Saratoga in the Hopeful and finished second, beating Firenze Fire.
For everyone else, predicting their chances on a wet track will be based on the pedigree, but hopefully it will not come to that. In what is shaping up to be a spectacular Derby with a deep roster of talented horses, who wants to see Mother Nature in the starting gate?

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]2018 Derby Data: How Fast the Contenders Finished.[/h][FONT=&quot]The Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve is a race unlike any other, and for handicappers this is especially true. The prestigious race is conducted over 1 ¼ miles, a distance that few—if any—of the entrants will have tackled in the past. For most, their longest race will have been 1 1/8 miles, an eighth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]As a result, many handicappers approach the Derby with a different mindset than they would for an ordinary race, and one of the factors they choose to emphasize is how fast each contender ran the last three-eighths of a mile in their final prep race. Analyzing such fractional times has become a popular tool for handicapping the Kentucky Derby, and for a good reason—horses who are finishing strongly at the end of their prep races are more likely to handle the distance of the Kentucky Derby than horses who are tiring at the end of their prep races.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Generally, a final three-eighths time of less than 38 seconds is considered good, while anything over 39 seconds is quite slow. Of course, these times can be affected by a variety of factors, including the speed of the racetrack and the early pace of the race (it’s easier to finish fast if you’ve gone very slow early on), but the fact remains that each of the last six Kentucky Derby winners–and 16 of the last 20–ran the last three-eighths of a mile of their final Derby prep race in less than 38 seconds, indicating that analyzing these fractional times can be very useful for handicapping the Kentucky Derby.
[/FONT]

Derby Winner	Final Prep Race	Final Time	Final 3/8th Time
Always Dreaming	Florida Derby	1:47.47	:36.56
Nyquist	Florida Derby	1:49.11	:37.72
American Pharoah	Arkansas Derby	1:48.52	:37.81
California Chrome	Santa Anita Derby	1:47.52	:36.69
Orb	Florida Derby	1:50.87	:37.73
I’ll Have Another	Santa Anita Derby	1:47.88	:36.41
Animal Kingdom	Spiral Stakes	1:52.32	:39.38
Super Saver	Arkansas Derby	1:49.41	:38.16
Mine That Bird	Sunland Derby	1:50.56	:40.27
Big Brown	Florida Derby	1:48.16	:38.08
Street Sense	Blue Grass Stakes	1:51.33	:34.35
Barbaro	Florida Derby	1:49.01	:37.56
Giacomo	Santa Anita Derby	1:49.51	:37.55
Smarty Jones	Arkansas Derby	1:49.41	:37.70
Funny Cide	Wood Memorial Stakes	1:48.78	:37.43
War Emblem	Illinois Derby	1:49.92	:36.89
Monarchos	Wood Memorial Stakes	1:48.42	:37.43
Fusaichi Pegasus	Wood Memorial Stakes	1:47.92	:37.10
Charismatic	Lexington Stakes	1:41.06 (1 1/16 miles)	:36.08 (projected time based on finish at a shorter distance)
Real Quiet	Santa Anita Derby	1:47.37	:36.56

<tbody style="box-sizing: inherit; border: none;">
</tbody>

 

[Greenbacks]

In years past, calculating such fractions required using rough rules-of-thumb, since final times and fractional splits were only published for the leader at each point of a race. This is still the case at some tracks, but for tracks that have installed the advanced race-timing technology Trakus, we can now access precise times for every horse in a race, making our task easier and much more accurate.
Below is a chart ranking the top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders (minus Gronkowski, for whom data is unavailable) in order of how fast they finished in their final prep race. Before diving into the data, here are a few things to keep in mind.

1. Trakus is not installed at Turfway Park, Fair Grounds, or Oaklawn Park—the hosts of the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, and Grade 1 Arkansas Derby—so I have calculated the final times and last three-eighths fractions from those races using the estimation that six lengths is equal to one second, which I have found to be more precise than the traditional rule-of-thumb that five lengths is equal to one second. As a result, the times I have listed for horses that ran at these tracks are not quite as accurate as the Trakus fractions, but they should be close.

2. Since some tracks have a traditional timer in addition to Trakus, the times provided by Trakus can vary slightly from the times officially published in result charts. Whenever possible, I have used data from Trakus for my chart.

3. Fractional times for the Grade 2 UAE Derby are based on metric distances, which are slightly shorter than “equivalent” distances measured in yards. To make Mendelssohn’s times comparable to the other times on the list, I have converted them to projected times based on yards.
4. My Boy Jack’s times are from the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby; please note that he subsequently contested and won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth.

Horse	Race (Finish Position)	Final Time	Final 3/8ths Time
Combatant	Arkansas Derby (4th)	1:50.59	:36.30
Magnum Moon	Arkansas Derby (1st)	1:49.86	:36.47
Solomini	Arkansas Derby (3rd)	1:50.57	:36.80
Justify	Santa Anita Derby (1st)	1:49.72	:37.11
My Boy Jack	Louisiana Derby (3rd)	1:50.40	:37.14
Quip	Arkansas Derby (2nd)	1:50.53	:37.16
Bolt d’Oro	Santa Anita Derby (2nd)	1:50.23	:37.40
Audible	Florida Derby (1st)	1:49.48	:37.51
Mendelssohn	UAE Derby (1st)	1:55.86 (1 3/16 miles)	:37.59
Vino Rosso	Wood Memorial (1st)	1:49.72	:37.66
Hofburg	Florida Derby (2nd)	1:50.05	:37.80
Lone Sailor	Louisiana Derby (2nd)	1:50.32	:38.19
Good Magic	Blue Grass Stakes (1st)	1:50.41	:38.27
Enticed	Wood Memorial (2nd)	1:50.21	:38.30
Flameaway	Blue Grass Stakes (2nd)	1:50.70	:38.62
Free Drop Billy	Blue Grass Stakes (3rd)	1:51.13	:38.67
Noble Indy	Louisiana Derby (1st)	1:50.28	:38.81
Firenze Fire	Wood Memorial (4th)	1:51.66	:39.36
Bravazo	Louisiana Derby (8th)	1:53.82	:41.85
Promises Fulfilled	Florida Derby (9th)	1:55.82	:43.78

<tbody>
</tbody>

Examining the chart, it’s readily apparent that the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park produced the strongest finishing fractions of any Derby prep race, with fourth-place finisher Combatant coming home fastest of all in :36.30 seconds. However, it should be noted that the Arkansas Derby featured a slow early pace (six furlongs in 1:13.39) that helped the top contenders finish fast. In addition, the race was contested over a faster racing surface than, say, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, as indicated by the fact that the Santa Anita Derby was assigned significantly higher Beyer and BRIS speed figures than the Arkansas Derby despite both races having similar final times.

Speaking of which, the Santa Anita Derby also appears to have been a strong race. Despite running over a slower track, the front-running winner Justify set a faster pace (1:12.61) than in the Arkansas Derby and still came home in a strong :37.11, the fourth-fastest time on the chart. Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bolt d’Oro also impressed with a final three furlongs in :37.40.

One race that produced a slower-than-expected finish was the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes, in which champion Good Magic prevailed over a large field. Good Magic clocked the fastest final three-eighths of a mile of any horse in the race, but overall his time was not particularly quick—just :38.27 seconds. Over the last 20 years, Animal Kingdom 39.38) and Mine That Bird 40.27) are the only Derby winners to have finished slower in their final prep race.

Nevertheless, it’s important to remember that analyzing final three-eighths fractions is only one piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle, and there are lots of other factors to consider when handicapping the race. But given the significance of these fractions in recent years, it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Good luck with your handicapping!

 

[Greenbacks]

Look who showed up today.....[FONT=&quot]Justify already posing for the cameras.

[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

Which Post Positions Equal Kentucky Derby Success?

Keeping a 3-year-old on the Triple Crown trail through the first four months of the year is an experience overwrought with worries. If a horse simply takes one bad step during a morning workout, it can go from the favorite for the Kentucky Derby to a colt looking to begin a second-half surge in the Travers, Saratoga’s Mid-Summer Derby.

Then, even if a Derby hopeful successfully navigates the choppy waters of a marathon prep season, horsemen must sweat out what happens at the post position draw.
A poor post position can surely dampen Derby fever, but which ones can bring out frowns and which ones can make a horseman smile?
To help answer that question, I examined each Derby since 2000, looking at the post positions of the first three finishers, giving a weighted value of 3-2-1 points for first-, second-, and third-place finishes.

The top post in that span was post No. 5 by a clear margin. With four wins, a second, and two thirds, post 5 had 16 points, putting it five points ahead of posts 13 and 15 which had 11 points.
In terms of wins, post 15 had three wins and posts 8, 13, and 16 had two apiece.
After that, post 16 had nine points and post 2 eight.

Finishing sixth was interesting for post 2 because of the well-documented problems facing horses breaking from the rail. Apparently having a post one slot over from the rail was beneficial enough to produce four second-place finishes and two thirds.

Continuing, post 4 had six points and posts 3 and 11 had five points.
That left 11 posts that only had four points or less.
At four points came posts 7, 10 and 18; followed by 12, 19, and 20 at three points; 1, 6, and 9 at two; 14 with one; and post 17 with a goose egg, aka zero.

Given that the sample covers only 18 editions of the Derby, it’s unfair to say post 17 should be tossed out on May 5 at Churchill Downs. Yet there are some generalizations that arise from the statistics, such as how posts 17 through 20 can be problematic. In the 18 editions of the Derby in the sample, with 54 top three finishes among them, the four outside posts have a combined four top three finishes. That breaks down to a win for post 19 and 20 and two seconds for post 18; that’s it.

Meanwhile, posts 2 through 5 had 19 top finishes out of the aforementioned 54 top three placings.
Those numbers surely reflect the value of having a post closer to the inside rail than the outside rail.
Amplifying them, in each of the last six years, at least one horse from posts 1-8 finished in the top three, and during that same period, horses in posts 1-10 had 11 top three finishes and posts 11-20 had just 7.

Taking all of those numbers into account it should become clear that in so many ways a draw can definitely turn out to be a victory for one fortunate horse on the first Saturday in May.

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]Why You Should Toss a Heavy Favorite.[/h][FONT=&quot]There’s no shortage of ways to pick the winner of a horse race. One of them is through a process of elimination.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Given the fact that there’s only one winner of a race and six or seven or eight or more horses who come out on the losing end, it’s definitely easier to a pick a loser than a winner. And when that toss-out is the betting favorite, it can surely open the door to a nice payoff.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Spotting a bad favorite isn’t easy, but some do stick out.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]For example, let’s look at the fifth race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 21. The choice in the wagering, at odds of 6-5, was Soldat the Top, who was making the third start of her career for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Just that limited amount of information and Brown's reputation could explain why Soldat the Top was favored, but there were a few worrisome items. For one, this was a $12,500 maiden claimer, not a maiden special weight race filled with horses from top outfits like Brown’s.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Also, she was purchased a year ago for $300,000 and now her connections were willing to lose her for about four percent of that purchase price.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Now, before going any further, it should be pointed that some of Brown’s top owners say he has the rare ability to quickly, and accurately, assess the talent in his horses. As a result, simply because he drops a horse into a claimer, even with the risk of a big financial loss, it does not mean that horse is hopeless. Some can turn into highly useful claimers.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Then again, some do not.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In Soldat the Top’s two starts, both on turf, she was 10th in a maiden special weight race and then sixth in a $20,000 maiden claimer. She lost by a combined total of more than 25 lengths in the two races.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Given the weakness of her rivals, it’s understandable that Soldat the Top was sent off as the favorite, even though she was racing on dirt for the first time. But was she worth a wager?[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In this case, the answer was definitely no.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Yes, hindsight is 20-20, but here’s the pertinent question: Is there any value in taking 6-5 odds on a horse that has yet to show an ounce of talent? Of course not.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]What stands out here is that a handicapper would not have to wait too long for a horse to come around at the same 6-5 odds with much better credentials, such as a close second or a decisive win in its last start.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Horses coming off sharp efforts are worthwhile risks at low odds, but banking that a horse who has been finishing up the track will suddenly sprout wings and fly is the kind of proposition that cries out for attractive odds like 5-1 or more. Suffice it to say, there’s nothing attractive about 6-5 odds on a slow horse.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]As for what happened, Soldat the Top turned in an absolute clunker. She was second early and then steadily dropped back until she wound up a distant last, losing by more 50 lengths.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]With the favorite off the board, it was the second choice, Appealing Lalibela, that won the race. While she only paid $5.80 to win, without Soldat the Top in the field, she probably would have returned $3.80.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]And all it took was some help from a process of elimination to find her.[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

[FONT=&quot] Combatant

[/FONT]

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]<yt-formatted-string class="style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer" style="--yt-endpoint-color:hsl(206.1, 79.3%, 52.7%);">Combatant workout.</yt-formatted-string>[/h]