Did a little backtesting yesterday on Morrison's system...everyone seems to know how last year went, but beyond that it's a mystery...so I started with '08 and went back through '05...I only did the AL East...here's what I came up with:
OFFICIAL PLAYS
'08 - 6 A wins, 3 B wins, and 2 Losses
'07 - 5 A wins, 4 B wins, and 1 Loss
'06 - 0 A wins, 1 B win, and 1 Loss
'05 - 3 A wins, 3 B wins
Total = 14 A, 11 B, and 4 L's = 25-4
UNOFFICIAL PLAYS
'08 - 2 A wins, 2 B wins, and 1 Loss
'07 - 4 A wins, 4 B wins, 1 C win, and 1 Loss
'06 - 7 A wins, 4 B wins, and 3 C wins
'05 - 6 A wins, 1 B win, and 2 C wins
Total = 19 A, 11 B, 6 C, and 2 L's = 36-2
And here are the losses if you wanna check em out for yourself:
OFFICIAL
'08 - TB (35-22) vs Bos (35-25), 6/3-5
'08 - Bos (61-45) vs LAA (64-40), 7/28-30
'07 - Bal (58-66) vs Min (63-63), 8/23-25
'06 - Bal (14-16) vs Bos (16-12), 5/5-7
UNOFFICIAL
'08 - Bal, 9/22-23
'07 - TB (38-60) vs Bal (44-54), 7/24-26
After seeing this many losses in going through ONE division, i've seen enough...it really doesn't make any sense to me to waste any more time backtesting...this is simply a SHIT system.
Now you can argue that some of these losses may have been filtered out by the RPI differential, but I think you'd just be acting naive...the Twins are currently 24-14 and own an RPI of .521...the following mediocre teams would qualify for an official play against the Twins if the series started today:
Florida - 20-19 - .519
Cincy - 22-16 - .516
Boston - 19-20 - .516
Colorado - 19-19 - .516
LAA - 18-22 - .513
Wash - 20-19 - .512
Mets - 19-20 - .507
As far as I know, there is no way to go back and find an RPI rating for a specific date in history...but from the ratings I gave you above, i'm sure you can see that MOST (if not ALL) of the official losses are indeed losses...AND...you can even make a case for the unofficial TB loss qualifying as an OFFICIAL loss.
Anyway...I hope this helps to open everyone's eyes...my eyes were certainly closed through all of last year and apparently I was VERY lucky...but history and percentages DO NOT lie...and since the system went without a loss last year, this can only mean that it's due for a double shot of losses this year.
So you've been warned...if you continue to follow this shitty system, you WILL lose...I guarantee it...and the only person to blame will be YOU...so hopefully you've got an unlimited bankroll...cuz you're gonna need it.
To everyone else, i'm happy to help!:toast:
-John