Jersey Dude's Moneymakers

[jersey_dude]

Thursday, May 12 2016 Results

1.2%: MLB: Kansas City +121 = 3-7, Lost 0.992%
2.5%: MLB: Houston +130 = 1-11, Lost 1.923%
1.3%: MLB: Philadelphia at Atlanta UNDER 7 -105 = 7-4, Lost 1.365%
1.3%: MLB: San Diego at Milwaukee UNDER 9 -105 = 3-0, Won 1.3%
0.2%: MLB: San Diego +121 = 3-0, Won 0.2%
2%: MLB: San Francisco at Arizona OVER 8 -115 = 4-2, Lost 2.3%
0.4%: MLB: San Francisco -109 = 4-2, Won 0.4%
0.4%: MLB: St. Louis -125 = 12-10, Won 0.4%
2.8%: MLB: NY Mets at LA Dodgers OVER 6 -115 = 0-5, Lost 3.22%
0.6%: MLB: NY Mets +225 = 0-5, Lost 0.267%

Record of the day: 4 W - 6 L / -7.767%
Overall record: 210 W - 170 L - 13 P / +3.912%

 

[jersey_dude]

Friday, May 13 2016

Early game:

0.6%: MLB: Pittsburgh +135 / 2:20 PM

 

[jersey_dude]

Friday, May 13 2016
(Continued)

1.5%: MLB: Cincinnati at Philadelphia OVER 8 -115 / 7:05 PM
0.8%: MLB: Miami at Washington UNDER 8.5 -105 / 7:05 PM
0.4%: MLB: Philadelphia -115 / 7:05 PM
0.3%: MLB: NY Yankees +136 / 7:05 PM
0.2%: MLB: Washington -1 -126 / 7:05 PM
0.2%: MLB: Detroit at Baltimore OVER 8.5 -125 / 7:05 PM
2.5%: MLB: Boston -137 / 7:10 PM
0.7%: MLB: Minnesota +130 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: MLB: Houston at Boston OVER 9 -120 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: MLB: Texas +100 / 8:05 PM
0.9%: MLB: San Diego at Milwaukee UNDER 9.5 -125 / 8:10 PM
1%: MLB: Atlanta +158 / 8:15 PM
0.4%: MLB: Colorado +105 / 8:40 PM
2.7%: MLB: San Francisco at Arizona UNDER 9.5 -125 / 9:40 PM
3%: MLB: St. Louis at LA Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 / 10:10 PM
0.3%: MLB: LA Dodgers -122 / 10:10 PM

 

[jersey_dude]

Friday, May 13 2016 Results

0.6%: MLB: Pittsburgh +135 = 4-9, Lost 0.444%
1.5%: MLB: Cincinnati at Philadelphia OVER 8 -115 = 2-3, Lost 1.725%
0.8%: MLB: Miami at Washington UNDER 8.5 -105 = 3-5, Won 0.8%
0.4%: MLB: Philadelphia -115 = 3-2, Won 0.4%
0.3%: MLB: NY Yankees +136 = 1-7, Lost 0.221%
0.2%: MLB: Washington -1 -126 = 5-3, Won 0.2%
0.2%: MLB: Detroit at Baltimore OVER 8.5 -125 = 0-1, Lost 0.25%
2.5%: MLB: Boston -137 = 6-7, Lost 3.425%
0.7%: MLB: Minnesota +130 = 6-7, Lost 0.538%
0.2%: MLB: Houston at Boston OVER 9 -120 = 7-6, Won 0.2%
0.2%: MLB: Texas +100 = 0-5, Lost 0.2%
0.9%: MLB: San Diego at Milwaukee UNDER 9.5 -125 = 0-1, Won 0.9%
1%: MLB: Atlanta +158 = 1-5, Lost 0.633%
0.4%: MLB: Colorado +105 = 5-2, Won 0.4%
2.7%: MLB: San Francisco at Arizona UNDER 9.5 -125 = 3-1, Won 2.7%
3%: MLB: St. Louis at LA Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 = 4-8, Lost 3.6%
0.3%: MLB: LA Dodgers -122 = 8-4, Won 0.3%

Record of the day: 8 W - 9 L / - 5.136%
Overall record: 218 W - 179 L - 13 P / -1.224%

 

[jersey_dude]

OK, I am stopping here, and I am taking a 1.22% loss.

So far this looks like almost 6 weeks of hard work lost, but I am not considering it lost at all.
It was the only way to test things in a "real" and long enough run to have some meaningful conclusions.

My conclusions:

Overall record:
218 W - 179 L - 13 P / -1.224% => 54.91% winners

The winner % is right around the 55% mark which was given by my short backtesting I was able to do before I started this thread.

I need to improve my money management, because no matter of the odds, but 9.82% more winner plays than loser plays should generate me a positive bank increase.

April 4 - April 30
142 W - 93 L - 5 P / +21.488% => 60.43% winners

This winner % was too much above of what I expected, so I was waiting at any time for a long losing streak to occur.

May 1 - May 13
76 W - 86 L - 8 P / -22.712% => 46.91% winners

This winner % was way below than what I am expecting over the long run.

I have no explanation so far why the result in almost half of May were so radically different from the results from almost the full month of April, because I have applied exacly the same handicapping criteria all along.
Also, it seems that in this month I've been losing almost all my bigger plays, and I have no explanation for this either.

Moneyline and runline plays (overall):
131 W - 102 L - 4 P => 56.22% winners

Total plays (overall):
87 W - 77 L - 9 P => 53.05% winners

From this I can see that the total plays practically had no positive effect at all, so I will need to reduce the number of total plays.

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Based on all the above I am starting a version 2.