I am done with capping games
What is the point?
Best team in the NL with the best hitting lineup against the Bucs with the worst ERA in the league. To make matters worse they start a AAA pitcher making his first start in the big leagues since 2006. Add to that, Bucs just traded away Nady and Bay. Best home record versus worst road record. I can point to all kinds of trends and stats but that will just belabour the point.
Guess what? Cubs lose 3-0.
Maybe Bigbookie has got it right. He picks 5 dogs everyday, if he goes 2-3 he will break even. If he goes 3-2 or better he makes nice money.
That's what it comes down to isn't it....UNITS AND MONEY WON NOT WIN PERCENTAGE.
What is the point?
Best team in the NL with the best hitting lineup against the Bucs with the worst ERA in the league. To make matters worse they start a AAA pitcher making his first start in the big leagues since 2006. Add to that, Bucs just traded away Nady and Bay. Best home record versus worst road record. I can point to all kinds of trends and stats but that will just belabour the point.
Guess what? Cubs lose 3-0.
Maybe Bigbookie has got it right. He picks 5 dogs everyday, if he goes 2-3 he will break even. If he goes 3-2 or better he makes nice money.
That's what it comes down to isn't it....UNITS AND MONEY WON NOT WIN PERCENTAGE.
This is Major League baseball. Its a long season. Betting games like these i found out a long time ago is suicide. RL's are a scam over the long haul, i have heard from a few bookies i know of that said as much. Your laying two runs, in a baseball game, that is nuts. As far as trends and the like, that is all they are, just trends. Trends have no bearing on the future when it comes to baseball, if anything they regress back to the mean imo. Sure pitcher vs hitting stats are nice and i think they can be important, but hitters/pitchers make adjustments. Not to mention in this case, they had very little info on Karstens. Karstens on the other hand had much much knowledge on the Cubs, being a division rival. Knowledge is power. So, dont quit capping, just cap smart, pick your spots. You capped it statistically just like the line was set - 200. Look at these trends you have. Is Marquis THAT good? Or is he been extremely LUCKY? Also, the Pirates suck on the road, no doubt and the Cubs are great, wouldnt you think that would start to even out somewhat? Im not trying to be a prick, and karstens isnt that good, but its all situational.
-Pirates are 18-48 in their last 66 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
-Pirates are 13-46 in their last 59 games as an underdog of +201 or greater.
-Cubs are 41-13 in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
-Cubs are 9-1 in Marquis' last 10 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
-Cubs are 20-6 in Marquis' last 26 home starts.
Best of luck tommorow. :toast:
You failed to mention I had FWIW in front of the trends I posted.
And you don't have to explain run lines to me either...Gambling for 30 years and booking for 10 successfully. Although I have no way of proving this, I am convinced Cubs would win 9 times out 10 this exact scenario. If Jeff Karsten was any good why did the Yankees give up on him?
Lets face it, what happened today was a fluke...and that is the way I'm going to treat it.
And you don't have to explain run lines to me either...Gambling for 30 years and booking for 10 successfully. Although I have no way of proving this, I am convinced Cubs would win 9 times out 10 this exact scenario. If Jeff Karsten was any good why did the Yankees give up on him?
Lets face it, what happened today was a fluke...and that is the way I'm going to treat it.
If you had success booking and gambling for 30 years, then why are you betting RL's? Not to mention, how do you not know Adam Laroche is on the DL with a Rib cage injury? As far as your dream scenario of the Cubs winning 9/10 games...who the fuck is Jason Marquis anyway? The guy is a better hitter then he is a pitcher. As as far as the Yankees giving up on Karstens, he is only 25 and all of his time in the big leauges has been marred by injurys, so his sample size is quite small.
:missingte
Marquis did exactly what I capped him to do and that is give up 2-3 runs. What I didn't anticipate was the Cub hitters making Karstens look like Cy Young. Cubs just finished destroying David Bush, Manny Parra, Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia...I mean who the fuck is Jeff Karstens? I have seen this kind of flash in the pan before only to end up back on the buses in AAA.
It's just these kind of situations that make me think it's all just one big crap-shoot; an "Any given Sunday" sort of thing. I know I am relatively new to all this, but the more I learn the more I think a chart and a dart could be just as effective as studying statistics all day. It seemed the first half of the season was a lot easier to cap. Things made sense and the teams that were supposed to win won. As most, I had this game pegged, though I did acknowledge Marquis as a big question mark. I guess the thing that should have kept me away was the very little info on Karstens. That should have been enough to make it a no play. Well, we'll get them tomorrow...
