Jake's Winning College Football Picks - Week One (WITH A GUARANTEE)

[JakeT.]

Was going to put a nice animated gif of Jessica Biel in her new stripper movie but I'm not sure you guys want it to appear on the page without notice. Anyway, no naked but definitely nice.

Here's the link:

http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/36/Jessica_Biel3.gif

 

[JakeT.]

More Saturday stuff.

My personal lines:
Kentucky -21*, O/U 47
Minnesota -21, O/U 47
Tennessee -27, O/U 47

*If Kentucky falls to -14 I will get on board. Best I see are some -14.5 but mostly -15.

Bets and why:

Minnesota -6.5 -110

This one obviously scares me a bit because of how low the line is but I don't think there is anyway the Orange stay in this game. They might be at home but have less returning starters than Minnesota and the Gophers look primed for a nice season. Syracuse is also learning new schemes on both sides of the ball and will start a QB with almost no experience if they go through with their plan to have Nassib start. I usually stay away from these sucker bet appearing games but I'll bite here.

 

[doctorsarvis]

Syracuse is also learning new schemes on both sides of the ball and will start a QB with almost no experience if they go through with their plan to have Nassib start.

'Cuse is starting Paulus at QB.

 

[JakeT.]

'Cuse is starting Paulus at QB.

Damn when did that happen? All the talk this spring was that they would use Paulus but only in a certain role. The fuckers named Nassib their starter in the spring. I'm honestly really surprised they are doing this. Either way, I don't think a rusty Paulus will do much better his first few teams. Why use a guy you are only getting a year out of? If these coaches were fighting for their jobs I might understand but this is their first year.

 

[JakeT.]

PS, you can replace "Nassib" with "Paulus" and the sentence still works. Perhaps more so.

"Syracuse is also learning new schemes on both sides of the ball and will start a QB with almost no experience if they go through with their plan to have Paulus start."

 

[CrapGame]

I like your plays

Ball St & North Texas I think you are 100% correct. NT+17.5 and the under.
I even put a quarter of a unit on the money line with NT. If NT can stop the run of BSU they could win outright. I lilke the fact NT's Coach has his red shirt frosh son as the QB. Ya think the father and son are talking football at the dinner table? I guess the kid was Mr football in Texas or runner up or somthing.

I am on these teams too.
OSU
Penn St
Minn

Good luck

 

[BoiseBrian]

I feel like I'm @ McDonalds when I'm in this thread because "dah dah dut dah dah I'M LOVING IT"

Also am in agree mode with the fricken ducks. Last year we caught 10, now somehow we lay 5???? I was in autzen last year and took the points, this year i will be @ Bronco stadium, and will take the points. (i would love a 1 or 2 point BSU victory though)

Keep up the good work, and the great attitude!!!

Good luck

BB

 

[JakeT.]

All hail the narwhal!

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[msmith2179]

I think you North Texas play and the under. I'll tail you. Are any of these plays listed 2u plays? Good luck this season

 

[JakeT.]

I think you North Texas play and the under. I'll tail you. Are any of these plays listed 2u plays? Good luck this season

Nope. I put up a special unit thing with those. Usually will look like this:

2-UNIT PLAY


I generally shy away from 2-unit wagers in the first week until I have a chance to see the team play.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Notre Dame -10*, O/U 58
Okie State -3, O/U 71

*Serious lean on Nevada +14 but I will lay off for now. I want to see just how much improvement the ND offense has actually got. They look great on paper.

Bets and why:

Georgia +6 -110
Georgia/Oklahoma State Over 61.5 -110

Both teams have offenses that can put up a ton of points and both teams have questions on defense and didn't fair so well against teams that can put up a ton of points. That's about all the reasoning I need. Both get 30+ and Georgia could win outright.

 

[Kevy]

Jake, just wanted to say hello my old friend. Hope you have an abundant and prosperous season.

 

[JakeT.]

Jake, just wanted to say hello my old friend. Hope you have an abundant and prosperous season.

Hey buddy. Long time no see. You still betting the big underdogs? You going to the UFC this weekend? First one ever in Oregon...

 

[JakeT.]

Gonna do about 10 more games today as soon as breakfast is done so keep an eye out. Don't miss out or you will end up like this guy:

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[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Wake Forest -1, O/U 55
Michigan -7, O/U 55
USC -36, O/U 48

Bets and why:

Western Michigan +11.5

The Michigan offense should be much improved but they are still working in a quarterback with little experience and that should be enough to keep this one close. The Western Michigan offense is legit and proved last year they can score points against above average defenses and Michigan only has 5 guys back on that side of the ball. This one should be somewhat close.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Missouri -3, O/U 59
UAB -7, O/U 61
Clemson -18, O/U 44

Bets and why:

Missouri Tigers +7 -110

Both teams have a ton of new people but I think the Missouri defense is better than the Illini's and I'd say the offenses are somewhat comparable even with Missouri working in a new quarterback. This one could go either way so the 7 is very generous considering all the unknowns.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Eastern Michigan -7, O/U 41
Wisconsin -14, O/U 48
Texas -49, O/U 55

Bets and why:

Eastern Michigan/Army Under 48 -115

Army runs a ton which naturally leads to low-scoring games anyway. They are learning a new offense with a new quarterback and almost entirely new line. They won't look good but will pick up first downs here and there and grind the clock. Eastern Michigan has a nice enough offense with lots of guys back but faces an Army defense that did very well against them last year and is now more experienced.

Texas Longhorns -40.5 -110

I hate these huge point spreads but Texas can name their score and it should be 42 or more. Colt McCoy could hand off every single play of the game and the Longhorns could cover. ULM has lots of guys returning but are working in a new QB and their defense is not going to stop the running game at all. Look for Texas to get 8-9 yards a carry and McCoy get a few touchdowns to build his Heisman resume.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Texas A&M -15, O/U 41
Oklahoma -28, O/U 48

Bets and why:

New Mexico/Texas A&M Under 56 -110

I seriously am considering going 2-unit on this one even though I generally avoid doing so in week 1. For now it's just a normal play but it's one I really like. New Mexico could only run last season and are now trying to put in the spread and it's simply not going to work right away. Texas A&M was horrible on defense last year but are in year 2 of the system and only gave up 22 to New Mexico last year when they were at their worst and on the road. Texas A&M should improve a ton on offense and New Mexico only has 3 guys back on defense but I just don't think the A&M offense is capable of putting up 35+ at this point.

Oklahoma/BYU Under 68.5 -110
2-UNIT PLAY

This one might be even better than the last one. This is a huge gift. BYU's offensive line has almost no one back and there are only 4 guys back on offense. Their star QB is there but the Oklahoma defense might be the best in the country and it would not surprise me if BYU scores less than 10. They should be absolutely manhandled in the trenches. Oklahoma's offense was great last year but only 5 guys are back and they were powered by their incredible offensive line last year. Now those guys are gone and BYU has 8 guys back on D including the best defensive line in the MWC. Screw it. This one is a must bet at 2-units. I can't lay off.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
UCONN -4, O/U 44
Nebraska -20, O/U 54
Auburn -24, O/U 36

Bets and why:

Nebraska/Florida Atlantic Under 61 -110

This one is really borderline but I'll play it based on the small edge I think I have. Florida Atlantic has a nice enough offense but Nebraska is just bigger and better and this Owl team only scored 13 points in the 3 games they played against legit conferences (Texas, Michigan St, Minnesota) last year. Nebraska has 7 guys back on D and should improve. Nebraska is working in a new inexperienced quarterback and Florida Atlantic tends to scheme well enough to overcome their lack of talent so with only 3 guys back I think they'll do enough against the Nebraska offense to keep this one under.

Auburn Tigers -12 -110
Auburn/Louisiana Tech Under 44 -110

The lines have moved against both my bets which is never a good thing but I still like the value here. Louisiana Tech is a good WAC team but they aren't Boise State or anything and just are not in the SEC's league right now. Auburn is working on another offense but has some guys back and it's similar enough to their last offense at the beginning of last year. Louisiana Tech still has some defensive issues with personel and I think Auburn will score some points. Louisiana Tech won't, however. They don't have much of a passing game and Auburn will completely shut down one-dimensional offenses.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
UCLA -17, O/U 37
New Mexico St Pick, O/U 47
Stanford -17, O/U 49

Bets and why:

UCLA/San Diego State Under 52 -112

UCLA's offense was crap last season but they should be improved quite a bit this year. That being said, they are starting a young quarterback with almost no experience and are going up against what should be a much improved San Diego State defense. Rocky Long is in charge of the D and his units always stop the run well so that should force UCLA to throw more then they would like. San Diego State should do nothing on offense themselves as UCLA is just bigger and better.

Idaho/New Mexico State Under 55.5 -110

I considered taking the Vandals +3 as well but they are good at messing things up so I laid off. Both of these teams are horrible. Just crap. Idaho's offense should improve a little bit but they are on the road against a team that will likely force them to throw and I think they'll sputter a bit. New Mexico State is learning a new offense and has a quarterback starting with no experience. The new ground-based approach will help them as the season goes on but at this point they will just burn clock and won't score many points. These defenses are crap too but the offenses might just be worse.