Jake's Picks - Week 1 College Football (constantly adding stuff)

[JakeT.]

Troy Trojans -5.5 -110

Middle Tennessee has one of the worst offensive lines in college football. No one is back. No depth. Troy's defense should handle them all day and night. Very possible the Blue Raiders get shut out. Mid Ten has a good defense as well, but Troy has a great offensive line coming back and should score some points although it won't be easy. With the Blue Raiders not getting anything on offense, this one should definitely cover though. Something like 23-3 sounds about right.

 

[JakeT.]

you bring up a good point about Clemson's offensive line...GL to you jake...

Thanks man and best of luck to you as well. I'm huge into offensive line versus defensive line strengths in determining bets if you haven't noticed haha. Sounds like you evaluate it as well. Good stuff. :toast:

 

[JakeT.]

The latest word on Kuli is there a chance he could be academically ineligible. We still don't know for sure and he could surface on campus in September or it could be January. I guess a redshirt is a possibility, but I'm praying that he plays this year. My Beavs need him. Depth is a major issue this year at many positions. Even though depth is an issue, I think come week 1 they should be healthy enough to have more talent than Stanford. A big concern is Jeremy Perry on the OL. If we don't have him I'm nervous.

I hate to admit it, but if you got Stanford at +4 you do have a little value. But, hold off on your bet till you see who OSU put out there on the offensive line come gameday. QB and the line are BIG concerns now.

Thanks for the update. Much appreciated. Line is now Stanford +3 so I'm happy with the movement so far and still like the Cardinals at home, even with lesser talent.

 

[JakeT.]

Leaning toward Kentucky +4 as well but gonna try and hold out for a hook. Anyone have any thoughts on this game?

I think Kentucky has the better offense even with no QB picked out. Cantwell is good but Kentucky's D should improve quite a bit.

Offensive line for Kentucky is going to make the difference.

Kentucky more experienced...

I don't know. Just a lean right now. Someone push me one way or the other.

 

[BlackRaspChip]

Kentucky had their best team in 5 years last year

Louisville had their worst team in 5 years last year

Game was in Lexington

Kentucky still needed a fluky, last second blown coverage finish to win.

When in doubt I'll take the senior, more talented quarterback and the home field advantage when I can get it.

This is still a UL team that finished top 6 in the country in 2 of the last 4 seasons, and one that Phil Steele lists as one of his most improved teams for the 2008 season...getting a possible top 3 Big East team w/ a talented, senior quarterback at home against an at-best .500 SEC team with a brand new offense in game 1 of the season is a steal in my opinion. This is one of those games that we could look back a month later and wonder wtf was Vegas thinking with this line.

 

[JakeT.]

Kentucky had their best team in 5 years last year

Louisville had their worst team in 5 years last year

Game was in Lexington

Kentucky still needed a fluky, last second blown coverage finish to win.

When in doubt I'll take the senior, more talented quarterback and the home field advantage when I can get it.

This is still a UL team that finished top 6 in the country in 2 of the last 4 seasons, and one that Phil Steele lists as one of his most improved teams for the 2008 season...getting a possible top 3 Big East team w/ a talented, senior quarterback at home against an at-best .500 SEC team with a brand new offense in game 1 of the season is a steal in my opinion. This is one of those games that we could look back a month later and wonder wtf was Vegas thinking with this line.

All good points but I think the Kentucky talent level is going up while Louisville was a product of Petrino's coaching/style more than anything. They ran a somewhat similar offense under Kragthorpe but just did not produce. Cantwell is an excellent senior QB but I'm concerned about that offensive line.

Thank you a ton for the comments. Those were just some of my counter arguments.

 

[JakeT.]

Tennessee Volunteers -6 -110

UCLA won't move the ball at all. Their O line is crap and their QBs are hurt. They will run up the middle and get nowhere. This is going to be ugly. The Vols are going to have one of the top offenses in college football and even though I like the youth that the Bruins have brought in to help the D, they are not stopping the Vols from scoring 20+. UCLA might get a TD at some point but it won't be enough to cover or even stay in the game. The Bruins are gonna be ugly on offense for the first half of the season.

 

[JakeT.]

Thinking of adding Rutgers -5. Any thoughts from anyone?

 

[JakeT.]

Oregon Ducks -14 -110

Oregon's offense will start out slower than normal but Washington's D line is so undersized that the running game will be open all day. No real Husky pass rush either. I love Jake Locker as much as the next guy but this Oregon D is stacked with talent and when Locker is forced to throw, look for mistakes.

 

[EmmittRudd]

I like your plays. I see the Cats winning straight up in a low scoring game in Louisville. Their D is the best they have had in years and Louisville has very inexperienced receivers. Granted their QB has NFL potential but I still like the Cats.

Love the Troy pick. MTSU will be playing a third string center. That line is rising fast. I may get in today actually.

Could not agree more with the Vols.

Those along with Utah will most likely be my top four plays. Got an opinion on that one?

Good luck

 

[JakeT.]

I like your plays. I see the Cats winning straight up in a low scoring game in Louisville. Their D is the best they have had in years and Louisville has very inexperienced receivers. Granted their QB has NFL potential but I still like the Cats.

Love the Troy pick. MTSU will be playing a third string center. That line is rising fast. I may get in today actually.

Could not agree more with the Vols.

Those along with Utah will most likely be my top four plays. Got an opinion on that one?

Good luck

Will look into Utah game shortly. Good luck on your plays and thanks for the input. It's always good to know I'm not alone on plays.

 

[JakeT.]

Looked at the Utah game but didn't make a play. Lean toward Michigan though. If it gets to -2.5 I'll bite.

 

[JakeT.]

Adding a bunch of totals.

Predicted scores:

Utep 34 Buffalo 24
Troy 34 Middle Tennessee 17
Miami OH 17 Vanderbilt 16
Wake 27 Baylor 20
South Carolina 34 NC State 13
Stanford 23, Oregon St 20

Bets:

Making another bet on Troy, this time at -6.5 -110.
Miami OH/Vanderbilt Under 41 -110



The totals are too close to my numbers to make any other bets on 8-28 action.

 

[JakeT.]

Adding:

Rice -3.5 -110

The Owls and the SMU Mustangs have a lot in common but Rice is just better. Both will pass nearly exclusively and neither plays defense. That being said, SMU is learning the June Jones offense and Rice has more experience with it. Rice's defense is a tick stronger as well, and they are at home. Gotta like the home team with more experience.

 

[hm2.0]

Rice D is a "tick stronger" - :lolBIG: so, you're saying the Owl stop unit actually has a pulse as opposed to SMU's , which is still on life support from last year.:lol:

gl, Jake.

 

[JakeT.]

Rice D is a "tick stronger" - :lolBIG: so, you're saying the Owl stop unit actually has a pulse as opposed to SMU's , which is still on life support from last year.:lol:

gl, Jake.

Haha both are horrible but at least Rice has 7 guys coming back even with Leary dinged. SMU is just worse... blah. They have no size at all. Almost anyone can push them around. I'm not a huge fan of Rice's offensive line but SMU isn't going to pressure much at all.

 

[JakeT.]

Adding:

East Carolina/Virginia Tech Under 45 -110

East Carolina doesn't have the talent to score on VTech's defense no matter how knew. The Hokies still have a ton of talent. VTech's offense should be improved but East Carolina has almost everyone back on D and gave the Hokies issues last year. I think this game has a ton of punting.

 

[liftnbet]

gl bro!

 

[JakeT.]

Thanks and best of luck to you as well. Let's get em!

:toast:

gl bro!

 

[JakeT.]

Adding:

Kansas -36 2-Unit Play

Florida International has a ton of guys coming back but their offensive line is tiny and not skilled. They likely won't score at all. Kansas' offense had issues in spring ball but they should be able to push around the International defensive line and score 45+. This one is going to end up similar to last season's 55-3 Kansas win... if International can score 3 this time around.