J2 Fading Institute

[J2]

Nice to be back in the mix here.. Not too fond of the preseason, but I have no idea how tiger sees this game soaring over the total


Fading tiger:

Under 38 Rams/Raiders (1 unit)



updated records:

<tiger> 136-122-5 (+4.97 units)
Nick Nack 17-17 (+1.8 units)
SecProphet 14-6 (+3.65 units)
chalky 1-1 (-.05 unit)
al watts n/a

total 168-146-4 (+10.37 units) or if you use Rx-Maniac "units" I am +1779 units

All games are 1/2 unit or 1 unit with rare 1.5 unit play.. No *50 or *75 or 100 unit garbage
JFI.. copyright Dec 2002

 

[raiders72001]

Nice to see the J2FI back in action.

 

[blueedwards]

j2, just curious...what tendencies do you look for in a potential fading candidate?

 

[J2]

Running out the door but one game looks good to fade today and it is compliments of chalky


Lions +101 (1 unit)



Blue: I'll catch up with you later about your ?

 

[mjred]

nice beginning for the jfi football season. (unless you got stuck with an o/u line of 12

)

 

[raiders72001]

 

[J2]

Fading chalky:

Bengals +4 (1/2 unit)


updated records:

<tiger> 137-122-5 (+5.97 units)
Nick Nack 17-17 (+1.8 units)
SecProphet 14-6 (+3.65 units)
chalky 2-1 (+.96 unit)
al watts n/a

total 170-146-4 (+12.38 units) or if you use Rx-Maniac "units" I am +1779 units

All games are 1/2 unit or 1 unit with rare 1.5 unit play.. No *50 or *75 or 100 unit garbage

JFI copyright Dec 2002


Blue Edwards: First off I must be fading a loser. Not a person who loses sometimes or who picks roughly 50%. I track my prospects for a good period of time to make sure they are <good> at what they do. I also like to find people that think they can cap every sport. I laugh everytime I see Rx-Maniac playing women's college hoops, college baseball, NFL, NBA, MLB and hockey. He really thinks he is a solid capper at them all and we all know how that has truned out. As you have probably noticed I do not fade all of the picks these posters make. The main reason is that I have a bankroll and I place real bets and can't come out with risking 20k a day like some posters around here CLAIM. I also try and look for certain betting tendencies, like my friend chalky. The man has never known what it is like to take a dog. He is confident the team favored is going to win. I also look for people who chase on plays, that is a sure sign of someone who will lose. Also look for people who have <ties> to particular teams. Like my buddy Rx-Maniac, a die-hard Clemson fan. He thinks inside the box with his team and forces plays based on his love for the team. There are a couple of more steps but it is tough for me to get it accross to people. I have summed this up as best as I can. Hope it gives you an idea. GL

 

[ATX]

I take it you throw regression to the mean into the mix as well? For example, you have tracked a <handicapper> over 1000 wagers and they have a win % of 45%. Over the course of 15 wagers they <see the light> and win 12 of those, and the next day they <cant lose> and double up on 10 plays the next day (when they wager on an average of only 3-5 games per day). Regression would seem to favor them winning LESS than their avg of 45% based more on human nature than raw statistics. I dont know if you look at it this way, just wanted your thoughts. I take a similar approach to myself-- when I get red hot I get worried. It's a brutal mind game much of the time, especially when the hot streaks last for more than a month.

 

[ATX]

I totally understand what you mean by some of this stuff being hard to explain. I once tried to explain my ideas on <due factors> and I came to the realization that a lot of my ideas are based on intuition and weird logic, and these are not easily transferred from thought to ink, and the best way to explain a lot of ideas is to show examples. Methinks the J2FI will be doing real well after week 4 of the NFL.

 

[blueedwards]

j2...makes sense. i think i will try jumping on your fades for a while to see how it goes. thanks for posting.

 

[jwunderdog]

Don't forget the Hooter's updates, always solid infomation coming out of that place.

 

[mjred]

bump

for this

RX-MANIAC
FILL MY RX BOTTLE
posted August 12, 2003 08:04 PM
Anah -126........200 Units
Anah -1.5 +165......100 UNITS
Anah Team Over 4.5 -125....100 UNITS
Anah Game Over 8.5 -120......50 UNITS


Get on these..They are Cash!

GL---Rx-Maniac

 

[J2]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by mjred:
bump

for this

RX-MANIAC
FILL MY RX BOTTLE
posted August 12, 2003 08:04 PM
Anah -126........200 Units
Anah -1.5 +165......100 UNITS
Anah Team Over 4.5 -125....100 UNITS
Anah Game Over 8.5 -120......50 UNITS


Get on these..They are Cash!

GL---Rx-Maniac<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'm so fvcking mad I didn't see this

 

[blueedwards]

200 units. who the hell bets $20,000 on a baseball game?

 

[IDENTITY]

mfg risks like 75k a night!

 

[raiders72001]

Chalky lost 200k yesterday.

 

[Kodiak7]

j2 if I'm Chalky.. why are your plays the same as mine?

not really sure whom you are referring to. I just see you list chalky and the LIONS +101 same as I had and bengals +4 same as I had.. If your fading and I'm chalky shouldn't you list the opposite side?

just wondering...

 

[J2]

Kodiak:


You are not chalky.. Chalky is a friend of mine who does not post on rx. He never takes underdogs except for maybe once a year. His track record is similar to DickyW's friend.

 

[blueedwards]

j2, can we get chalky's plays on this board?

 

[Kodiak7]

Gotcha.. thanks and good luck!