Its official. EVERYONE IS ON THE NATS!!!!!

[thaineseguy]

books are not stupid, nats must be only-110 for a reason. but i dont know why.

could be a huge disaster waiting to happen :smoking:

i'm still on the NATS tho. ope:

 

[FairWarning]

Not to bust balls Gynocologist, but the Nationals and sharp should never be used in the same sentence.

 

[CHOPTALK]

As predicted, BUCS has Washington.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Hi to all,

i don't hope it will be his fav. play as he lost almost all his fav. plays till now.
It is strange: When you compare him to other good baseball cappers he is having a good season so far, but he is stumbling with his fav.plays. Normally,those picks were winners for sure in the past. If you take out his fav.plays he w have a fantastic record.



cheers,


colton

BUCSFAN is not having a good baseball season. He is having a GREAT!!!! baseball season.

 

[bznofx19]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: x-small; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"><TD>Jose Guillen</TD><TD align=middle>OF</TD><TD align=middle>4/15/2006</TD><TD>Ribs</TD><TD>missed last game, questionable Saturday vs Florida.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR style="FONT-SIZE: x-small; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"><TD>Jose Vidro</TD><TD align=middle>2B</TD><TD align=middle>4/15/2006</TD><TD>Hamstring</TD><TD>left last game, questionable Saturday vs Florida.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

could be the reason its only -114

I think John Patterson would be a 20 game winner if the NATS would ever get him some run support!!!!

 

[Sekrah]

Nats won't need much run support in this one IMO.. as long as they can push a run or two across, I think it'll be enough.

Patterson will go 8.

 

[Sekrah]

What's special about the Nationals?
-2-9 overall
-2-6 away
-(-$650) return on investment
-teams bat .297 against them
-pitching has given up 20 HR's so far!(worst)
-Patterson has given up 4 of the 20
-Fla has a LHP going
-L5 games 2.6 RPG(30th)
If I played this game, it'd be FLA on the alternate RL.

I'll open up some insight into my thought process for this game.

First

2-9 overall, 2-6 away

So far this year, they've played the New York Mets (6 games), and the defending NL Champion Houston Astros (4). Mets are arguably the best team in the National League this year, and may be one of the top 3 teams in all of baseball! Houston may be weaker this year, but they should still be atleast a contender for the Wild Card again this year. The one time they've faced a weak team, Florida, they were up against Dontrelle Willis!

-teams bat .297 against them.. -pitching has given up 20 HR's so far!(worst)

Again, these numbers are counting 6 games against the NY Mets, the hottest team in baseball and easily the most formidable starting lineup and the Astros in Minute Maid/Reliant (Hitters Haven). Houston might not have a great lineup, but they still hit .271 at home last year (T-4th best NL) and .242 on the road (14th NL). Minute Maid/Reliant gave Astros a 30 point BA boost last year. (20 pt boost in 2004). Factoring in stadiums where a game is played is one of the most crucial handicapping factors that too many handicappers ignore. There are more "Hot Spots" than just Coors Field, believe me, and the "Cold Spots" such as RFK, Dolphins, and many others are practically ignored by 95% of all handicappers when they look at a game. Recent history/statistics must be put into context.

-Patterson has given up 4 of the 20

Patterson has yet to have an easy game.. First off, he's a fly ball pitcher. He EXCELS in cavernous parks like RFK, Dolphins, Petco. He went 2.77 ERA/1.15 WHIP/.224 BAA in Dolphins Stadium last year and very similar numbers at home at RFK. In his one start at Petco he threw a 3-hit, 1-run Complete Game gem! I have my own personal rating system on pitchers performances and I follow the form of the pitcher throughout the season. It starts out with a base number of the raw statistics of the game and is adjusted per the lineup that was faced, and the stadium in which it was pitched in. Patterson's performance in the Houston game was a nice advance from his opener and historically it's been a very good trend to me and points to a very solid performance in his next start (which just happens to be in a pitchers park).

The Marlins haven't been swinging the bats well at all unless you want to consider Dewon Brazelton (7.61 ERA last year) a real pitcher. They did have that big outing for Pettitte, but Pettitte has been known to be asleep early in the season. His strongest baseball is always post All-Star break and Marlins bats will have a much easier time vs left handed pitching than righties. The Marlins are hitting .213 against RHP so far this year!

Now, onto the Nationals Bats! Can they get runs across today? Now let's look who they've already faced this year: Pedro Martinez (2), Brian Bannister (2), Tom Glavine, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, Victor Zambrano, and Dontrelle Willis

Can anyone tell me what all 9 of those pitchers have in common? If you answered "They are all better than Scott Olsen.", you win! Of course, you could argue Backe and Rodriguez aren't, but it's marginal. The point is, Nationals have faced some TOUGH pitchers.

This Nationals lineup is loaded with bats who can hit LHP. First Soriano, Duh.. But also Lead-off man Marlon Byrd (.323 v LHP 2005), Nick Johnson (.328 v LHP 2005), Ryan Zimmerman (.357 Career v LHP), Royce Clayton (.295 v LHP 2005). The two guys they are missing, Vidro and Guillen are terrible hitters vs Lefties! Them being out of the lineup is a blessing in disguise IMO!! Guillen hit .215 against them last year.


The Nationals aren't going 12-150. Even the worst teams in the league win ATLEAST 50 or 60 games, and these are the types of games the Nationals will win.

 

[heart222]

The issue is more than vidro hurt guillon hurt. 1/2 pitchers hurt. only good pitcher is patterson today. this team now is more than stats players ticked off at mangement causethe field is to big they cant hit homers mets hit 3 in first inning. no shortstop if vidro cant play its a hammy again now what soriano is not going to play 2nd base.
I consider capping similar to technical analyais in the stock market. there are some times that the fundamentals overwelm the technicals.
If Iran says no more oil coming thru stright of hormetz oil goes up and stock market goes down dosent matter about over sold oveer bought. same thing here there is no team right mabey 3 guys zimmerman johnson and who knows. there has to be better ways to make money than trying to get te nats to win. having said all that they will probably win 10-0 today. but be careful here. last year first half was a fluke. good luck all

 

[CHOPTALK]

Just give me a Soriano Solo shot and I will be happy.

Nationals 3-1

 

[Sekrah]

heart222... Nobody is saying Nationals are a NL powerhouse about to sweep the the league off their feet.

Florida Marlins are a TERRIBLE team as well. Both of these teams are going to push 100 losses. Florida had their ace on the mound yesterday, they won. Washington has their ace on the mound today, I believe they will win. Washington bats matchup well against Florida's starter.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I'll open up some insight into my thought process for this game.

First



So far this year, they've played the New York Mets (6 games), and the defending NL Champion Houston Astros (4). Mets are arguably the best team in the National League this year, and may be one of the top 3 teams in all of baseball! Houston may be weaker this year, but they should still be atleast a contender for the Wild Card again this year. The one time they've faced a weak team, Florida, they were up against Dontrelle Willis!



Again, these numbers are counting 6 games against the NY Mets, the hottest team in baseball and easily the most formidable starting lineup and the Astros in Minute Maid/Reliant (Hitters Haven). Houston might not have a great lineup, but they still hit .271 at home last year (T-4th best NL) and .242 on the road (14th NL). Minute Maid/Reliant gave Astros a 30 point BA boost last year. (20 pt boost in 2004). Factoring in stadiums where a game is played is one of the most crucial handicapping factors that too many handicappers ignore. There are more "Hot Spots" than just Coors Field, believe me, and the "Cold Spots" such as RFK, Dolphins, and many others are practically ignored by 95% of all handicappers when they look at a game. Recent history/statistics must be put into context.



Patterson has yet to have an easy game.. First off, he's a fly ball pitcher. He EXCELS in cavernous parks like RFK, Dolphins, Petco. He went 2.77 ERA/1.15 WHIP/.224 BAA in Dolphins Stadium last year and very similar numbers at home at RFK. In his one start at Petco he threw a 3-hit, 1-run Complete Game gem! I have my own personal rating system on pitchers performances and I follow the form of the pitcher throughout the season. It starts out with a base number of the raw statistics of the game and is adjusted per the lineup that was faced, and the stadium in which it was pitched in. Patterson's performance in the Houston game was a nice advance from his opener and historically it's been a very good trend to me and points to a very solid performance in his next start (which just happens to be in a pitchers park).

The Marlins haven't been swinging the bats well at all unless you want to consider Dewon Brazelton (7.61 ERA last year) a real pitcher. They did have that big outing for Pettitte, but Pettitte has been known to be asleep early in the season. His strongest baseball is always post All-Star break and Marlins bats will have a much easier time vs left handed pitching than righties. The Marlins are hitting .213 against RHP so far this year!

Now, onto the Nationals Bats! Can they get runs across today? Now, onto the Nationals Bats! Can they get runs across today? Now let's look who they've already faced this year: Pedro Martinez (2), Brian Bannister (2), Tom Glavine, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, Victor Zambrano, and Dontrelle Willis

Can anyone tell me what all 9 of those pitchers have in common? If you answered "They are all better than Scott Olsen.", you win! Of course, you could argue Backe and Rodriguez aren't, but it's marginal. The point is, Nationals have faced some TOUGH pitchers.

Can anyone tell me what all 9 of those pitchers have in common? If you answered "They are all better than Scott Olsen.", you win! Of course, you could argue Backe and Rodriguez aren't, but it's marginal. The point is, Nationals have faced some TOUGH pitchers.

This Nationals lineup is loaded with bats who can hit LHP. First Soriano, Duh.. But also Lead-off man Marlon Byrd (.323 v LHP 2005), Nick Johnson (.328 v LHP 2005), Ryan Zimmerman (.357 Career v LHP), Royce Clayton (.295 v LHP 2005). The two guys they are missing, Vidro and Guillen are terrible hitters vs Lefties! Them being out of the lineup is a blessing in disguise IMO!! Guillen hit .215 against them last year.


The Nationals aren't going 12-150. Even the worst teams in the league win ATLEAST 50 or 60 games, and these are the types of games the Nationals will win.

If thats not a tremendous write up I dont know what is. :thumbsup2:

Now, onto the Nationals Bats! Can they get runs across today? Now let's look who they've already faced this year: Pedro Martinez (2), Brian Bannister (2), Tom Glavine, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, Victor Zambrano, and Dontrelle Willis

Can anyone tell me what all 9 of those pitchers have in common? If you answered "They are all better than Scott Olsen.", you win! Of course, you could argue Backe and Rodriguez aren't, but it's marginal. The point is, Nationals have faced some TOUGH pitchers.

The above paragraphs is key. When you only have a 1 week sample of the season you have to look much deeper than raw numbers.

<LI class=morehot>Nationals are 3-0 in Patterson's last 3 starts as a road favorite. <LI class=morehot>Nationals are 3-0 in Patterson's last 3 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Nationals are 8-1 in Patterson's last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=more>Nationals are 9-3 in Patterson's last 12 night starts. <LI class=more>Nationals are 5-2 in Patterson's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Nationals are 5-2 in Patterson's last 7 road starts. <LI class=more>Nationals are 10-4 in Patterson's last 14 starts as a favorite. <LI class=more>Nationals are 9-4 in Patterson's last 13 starts during game 2 of a series.



<LI class=more>Marlins are 18-38 in their last 56 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Marlins are 6-13 in their last 19 vs. National League East. <LI class=more>Marlins are 6-13 in their last 19 night games. <LI class=more>Marlins are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=more>Marlins are 2-5 in their last 7 games on Grass. <LI class=more>Marlins are 2-5 in their last 7 overall. <LI class=more>Marlins are 5-15 in their last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Marlins are 2-6 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 0-9 in their last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 0-3 in Olsen's last 3 starts. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 0-3 in Olsen's last 3 starts on Grass. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 0-3 in Olsen's last 3 night starts. <LI class=morecool>Marlins are 0-3 in Olsen's last 3 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Look at all the trends the Marlins would have to overcome to win this game.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Why in the hell did this thread get moved here?

 

[oldirtyku]

Chop,

You cannot mention Bucs name or a thread gets moved here.

A thread cannot say Bucs, Shrink, or General. Unless used in the following way:

So In GENERAL I need to make some BUCS to go see a SHRINK..

I think the word eog is banned also.

 

[kidslick]

Chop,

You cannot mention Bucs name or a thread gets moved here.

A thread cannot say Bucs, Shrink, or General. Unless used in the following way:

So In GENERAL I need to make some BUCS to go see a SHRINK..

I think the word eog is banned also.

oldirtyku may i ask why you have the title "known stiff" under your name

i thought only madcapper had that tagline

 

[SkinsRaj28]

Just cuz everyone seems to be on the same team and Chop and Bucs are on them doesn't mean one should go overboard on them. A play's a play, take it for what it's worth and be smart. GO NATS

 

[oldirtyku]

Kidslick,

I am just fawking around. I think it is hilarious that they made him have that under his name so I put it there 2. I forgot I had changed it.

 

[Sekrah]

So, was my analysis any gooooot?

 

[quantumleap]

So, was my analysis any gooooot?

I liked the part where you mention the fly-ball pitcher doing well in a cavernous stadium but not so well in a small stadium. Do you have any other pitchers that are like this?