Is hitting a favorite THAT HARD?

[caseymcgillis]

for the season i have tallied up in am 13 - 4 if that matters dynamite

 

[caseymcgillis]

also if you say you have just been chasing -170 or -200 bets just buy some points to make it even simpler.

i know the cfl and i feel like 98% sure the riders win tomorrow.

 

[sumday]

you dont see ervin santana and the angels vs olsen and the orioles as a great bet with the riders in a parlay tom? i know what you mean though..you watch a game and stress out cheering your team on and they win..then onto the second game and they lose..all the emotion over the first win meaningless.. but im going for it. see what happens

 

[caseymcgillis]

im not disagreeing with the pick of the angels. olsen is awful i have seen him pitch vs the bluejays many times.

i am just saying i dont like parlays as a betting type. too many times my underdog or -105 or -110 bet wins only to see the -140 or -150 part of it lose.

i am putting $1050 on the riders tomorrow to win $1000. i have been waiting to make this bet all week and having gone 3 - 0 in the other 3 games this weekend has me figuring why not go for the big score with the riders.

ill be at the game tomorrow and it would put a damper on my mood if a baseball team had lost an afternoon game to put me in the hole already for the day

 

[sumday]

good luck with that. i'll be cheering them on

 

[sumday]

i see you are on tampa today also. i have them in a parlay with the dodgers

 

[caseymcgillis]

yeah i have them closing off 3 parlays actually.

i had the jays/rays, jays/rays/angels and angels/rays

hope they can pull it out

 

[dynamite140]

lol i didn't bet on the Dodgers ML and right now they are winning 2-0 in the bottom of the 1st with 0 out and a man on 2nd base.

This is just hilarous.

 

[caseymcgillis]

1 inning man. nats get out of this letting only 2 runs in they are still in this game. you havent even seen lowe. he is jekyll and hyde

 

[dynamite140]

Well i took Lowe last time at home laying -180 against the Astros and he lost the game like 8-1 or something like that.

Its just the fact that when i bet on a game, i just can't win. Yet if i dont bet, i would win. When the Cubs game didnt end before the Phillies game, i stayed away from the Phillies game b/c if it win the Cubs ML, i would be done for the day. Well i lost taht but was glad when i saw PHillies were down 9-3.

Then WTF, Phillies come back to win 10-9. If i bet on them, that stuff just DON'T HAPPEN.

 

[sumday]

well i hope lowe pitches well and tampa finds a way to win..i need this today

 

[sumday]

Well i took Lowe last time at home laying -180 against the Astros and he lost the game like 8-1 or something like that.

Its just the fact that when i bet on a game, i just can't win. Yet if i dont bet, i would win. When the Cubs game didnt end before the Phillies game, i stayed away from the Phillies game b/c if it win the Cubs ML, i would be done for the day. Well i lost taht but was glad when i saw PHillies were down 9-3.

Then WTF, Phillies come back to win 10-9. If i bet on them, that stuff just DON'T HAPPEN.

you gotta be in it to win it

 

[caseymcgillis]

damn tamps offense has gone cold. 11 straight retired

 

[sumday]

tampa has the better bullpen right?

 

[sumday]

now im kinda wishing the game was rained out

 

[artiesliver]

the best advice i can give you is a piece i received many years ago and it really helps during the tough frustrating stretches of baseball season.

very simply, do not play any games when the line is more than a -150 lay.
that means steer clear of the game completely. no +185 dogs. no -210 favorites.

if you try to weather the storm playing games in the general 'pick'em' range or -130/+130 range, it does wonders for your psyche for a few reasons.

first of all, when you are cold, the last thing you want to do is lay MORE money to win a unit. during cold stretches, its hard enough to pick the straight up winner. theres no need to compound it with crazy juice.

now on the flip side, chasing with big dogs hoping for a quick score isnt the way to go either because big dogs often will fail to show profit short term. their benefit is long term. when things are going well, its easy to laugh it off when your +180 dog gets blasted 9-2. but during a cold stretch, it just leads to second guessing and regret.

for now, id say playing games that involve pick'ems and favs/dogs of up to 150 tops. maybe even 130 if you really want to be conservative while getting your confidence back.

Dynamite--This is perfect advice. I have learned the hard way that this is the only way to go.

Look at it this way, if you go at best winning 2 out of every 3 bets, but you are laying, let's say -180, -210, -150, and you win the -180 and -150 you go 2-1, but still lose $. That is assuming you win 66.6% of the time (which I don't know if anyone does with regularity).

Hang in there and stick to Prodigy's advice. Trust me, it makes it easier when you slump. BoL!!

 

[sumday]

4-2 tampa!!

 

[caseymcgillis]

5 - 2

 

[sumday]

sometimes it pays to chase..just won a ton of money back if dodgers and tampa dont blow it

 

[caseymcgillis]

damn leadoff triple for KC