Is beating the closing line overrated?

[valueman]

Win or Lose for horses in the UK, Books will restrict you and close you down if you consistently beat the closing line (SP or starting price for horses).

For me it is essential as I'm an early price taker and I beat the closing line by huge huge amounts - more than my profit margin to be fair. I guess that's my skill that I know which way the market will go on most occasions. That is my edge and the reason I make money consistently.

There are others who don't even play early and pretty much bet at the closing line and make money. It's just a different game and different analysis is required for both.

In my situation I might bet horse A at 6/1 in the morning but if I had to play the market at closing line I might play horse B at a different price. Every selection has a probability associated with it and success is just betting at a probability higher than the odds reflect be it at an early or closing line. People are often foolish in getting set on a team, horse regardless of the price and that is their undoing.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Great discussion here...nice thread

 

[trytrytry]

imo..beating the closing line is actually underrated...

 

[FairWarning]

imo..beating the closing line is actually underrated...

I agree.

 

[BAGIANT]

Since I bet NFL dogs, most of the time the line moves to my advantage as the lines move higher as the squares bet the favorites.

As Hache pointed out, what difference does it make if you beat the line moves if you don't win the game.

 

[s2kris]

does anyone have any data on how often a middle occurs?
for example: i bet the over 38.5 on the Detroit vs. Cleveland game. the o/u opened at 36 and closed at 38.5. The final score was 37.

 

[TICKETMANTN]

I would say yes.

would have to agree with you on this subject

 

[RenoChazz]

Absolutely not overrated. Curious, any bookies out there think that it is?

 

[EstebanOchocinco]

it is 2 me. i dont wait on lines even though i get bad ones from time to time

 

[X-Files]

Is beating the closing line overrated?

That depends. What is its present rating.

For example, if you rated the Bears as best in the NFL, i'd say they are overrated.
If you rated them second worst, i'd say they are not overrated. If you just asked
if the Bears are overrated, i'd have to ask how high they are rated.

In any case, who cares. What good is that info going to do for you? I mean w/o
a crystal ball to know the closing line in advance. What interests me is the lines &
their movement before the line closes.

 

[steaktartar]

its not overrated.....it also doesnt mean you have to get the opener....game opens 4 closes 7.........-6 is a good bet you beat closer..........its all relevant though more than one way to skin a cat

 

[jb777]

IMO it's only overrated if you don't know how to manage your money which most do not.

 

[HugeUnderdog]

Not At All , it means you have valuable bets . Would you say Buying a coke for $0.75 and selling it for $1.25 overrated ? Its similar I think .

 

[goblue12]

There's a fine line between beating the closing number and having a +EV wager.

Works great in the ML Sports, not so well in the spread sports not named NFL.

 

[Mr.Leisure]

I had -210 with bieber last night and it closed at -400 .Was this a good bet ??

@)