<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Teddy kgb:
atx & dimes im having a hard time figuring out why i should bet a 220 dog just because i have them capped at 170 and everyone says 'well thats good value' but still i have them at 170 which means they should still lose, so why should i care if i found a 220?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Assuming your capping is correct +170 should be the breakeven point. In other words if you bet this game 100 times your record would be about 37-63. So if you play this game 100 times at +220 you would win $8140 and lose $6300 for net gain of $840 betting $100 each time. Think longterm value.
atx & dimes im having a hard time figuring out why i should bet a 220 dog just because i have them capped at 170 and everyone says 'well thats good value' but still i have them at 170 which means they should still lose, so why should i care if i found a 220?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Assuming your capping is correct +170 should be the breakeven point. In other words if you bet this game 100 times your record would be about 37-63. So if you play this game 100 times at +220 you would win $8140 and lose $6300 for net gain of $840 betting $100 each time. Think longterm value.
dimeplayersonly-
Would you please email me at mr_tonymontana_1978@hotmail.com? I would greatly appreciate it. I have a few questions I would love to bounce off of you...
Thanks...
fig
Would you please email me at mr_tonymontana_1978@hotmail.com? I would greatly appreciate it. I have a few questions I would love to bounce off of you...
Thanks...
fig
"but is the answer too find a different way to cap or just be the first guy done with his homework and grab the early line?"
a lot of things factor in here. If you expect the line to move in your favour, then you can risk it, and wait for a better price later on. Otherwise bet it, linemakers are definately sharp, but they are just estimating possibilities on a sporting event like any knowledgeable punter would, so they are also wrong or offset in their predictions, and sometimes you can get the best price by betting very early, before the sharp money comes in the prices are re-adjusted accordingly. There are other issues too, like weather conditions (for outdoor sports obviously), latest team news and coach plans for the games, etc. etc. which you can obviously factor in much better a few hours or even minutes before gametime (as mainly a soccer punter myself this is sometimes more than crucial), and hence a bet placed closer to game time would be a much more informed bet, risking a compromised price of course. So, there really is no single formula imo.
For example, last week, in my local soccer league, i capped a game and found some great value in the early odds, and bet it, only to find out minutes before the game that the coach had decided to rest more than half of the starting line up, for a more important europian event later that week. My bet lost, and i wished i d waited till gametime, but i did not regret betting a good price, despite the unforeseen circumstances.
Dimes has mentioned a few very important things, such as not getting swayed by how much you like a team to win and betting a compromised line. And besides power ratings, try setting the odds yourself, and then comparing them with the lines offered, if you can't get any decent value margin, say 0.1 or more, then there's no point betting the game.
a lot of things factor in here. If you expect the line to move in your favour, then you can risk it, and wait for a better price later on. Otherwise bet it, linemakers are definately sharp, but they are just estimating possibilities on a sporting event like any knowledgeable punter would, so they are also wrong or offset in their predictions, and sometimes you can get the best price by betting very early, before the sharp money comes in the prices are re-adjusted accordingly. There are other issues too, like weather conditions (for outdoor sports obviously), latest team news and coach plans for the games, etc. etc. which you can obviously factor in much better a few hours or even minutes before gametime (as mainly a soccer punter myself this is sometimes more than crucial), and hence a bet placed closer to game time would be a much more informed bet, risking a compromised price of course. So, there really is no single formula imo.
For example, last week, in my local soccer league, i capped a game and found some great value in the early odds, and bet it, only to find out minutes before the game that the coach had decided to rest more than half of the starting line up, for a more important europian event later that week. My bet lost, and i wished i d waited till gametime, but i did not regret betting a good price, despite the unforeseen circumstances.
Dimes has mentioned a few very important things, such as not getting swayed by how much you like a team to win and betting a compromised line. And besides power ratings, try setting the odds yourself, and then comparing them with the lines offered, if you can't get any decent value margin, say 0.1 or more, then there's no point betting the game.
Lots of interesting points mentioned here and I agree with lots of them. As Dime mentioned the linesmakers are some pretty sharp guys. There's not many here if any that get set lines better than they can. That being said you have to pick your spots on sports or teams that you know best. I handicap two sports myself. In these two sports I have a good feeling for which way the line will move and play my games early or late based upon which way I think the line will move. I'm not always correct on the movement but more times than not get the best line. I also bet other sports but have lost my ass year in and year out trying to handicap them so I just play into lines that I think are off. What I've done is watched books in each particular sport. I use the line from the book that I think is sharpest in that sport. I know that I can't set the line better than this book so why not use their expertise. Then when I see another book with a significant different line I will make my play.
