Maris, my good man! Jimmy Vaccaro is a fucking snake in the grass, but I digress.
When you and I were first going at this, roughly a week before the game, you were claiming that the money was with the Giants, but not as much as people were claiming. Fine. I disagreed on that point. My contention was that the Giants were getting fucking hammered on the ML and Side AT THAT TIME. No one had a clue what the final cash flow would be on Sunday, and I still question what the books are claiming regarding late Pats money. No one is arguing the amount of action placed late Saturday and Sunday. The trends during the week prior to the game were so skewed to the Giants that it was unlike most Super Bowls. That's all I was saying. Yes, the books were taking nearly nothing but Giants money on the side and ML....until the end. And again, that is to be questioned, IMO.
I never argued the point that it was wise to bet the Giants or Pats based on where the money was going, ever. Never. Ever! My entire point was that I couldn't believe how bad of a line Vegas set to begin with that would allow them to be exposed like that.
I still don't think it was a bad line...and I still don't think they were exposed.
But that's something neither of us will ever truly know.
I just said that it DID NOT MATTER to me who was doing what, 10-12 days before the game. It didn't matter to me one bit.
And yes, they're probably all snakes in the grass.
I still didn't understand what the purpose was of only posting the part of that quote that fit your argument, leaving off the other half that did not.
You raise a very interesting point and I mentioned this before as well. Why doesn't each book in Vegas have a running tally on their big boards, up in lights, next to the lines for the games, on the amount of money and percentages wagered for each side??? If Vegas doesn't know the outcome of select games why would they care if their handle became totally transparent? Why would it matter to bettors which side Vegas needed?
In my opinion, I believe--as I believe the sun rises daily--that certain games in college and pro football (I guess other sports as well, but not as frequently) are totally, 100% fixed. And Vegas knows the right side on the fix. Not every game, mind you, but enough. Call me a conspiracy theorist or a lunatic, but I believe it. This is part of the reason Vegas' numbers are not transparent. More money is wagered on football than any other sport. By a long shot. In the end, it's all about the money.
Great passion from both you guys and I'm glad to see everybody is getting along 
The line was off in my opinion. Not....10 points off. But I think the linesmakers still expected the vast majority to back the Pats. I know from all the discussion in the forum that many cappers "knew" that everyone would want to back the Giants, but I think that is false. Most people don't pay close attention to the NFL...some do, but most don't. And a line of around 3 sounds too good to be true on the Pats, a team that won 10 in a row! I am pretty sure if you could get a linesmaker to give you an honest read, that he would tell you that they were surprised by how much Giants love there was.
As for fixing games, TCP I don't see it quite that way. Bettors are their own worst enemies...we have all had horrible days and wondered HOW HOW HOW could we be that bad! The difference imo is that in the majority of games, there isn't a lot of action on those games. And frequently, the linesmakers who really know the teams know things we don't. Such as, Team A has been talking s--- all week about revenge against Team B and is planning an all out effort against them. We might THINK that stuff, but they KNOW it from talking to people on the teams and in the lockerroom.
Team A might rightfully be a 10 point dog to Team B in any regular situation. But the "inside knowledge" about the motivation for Team A might make the correct line closer to 0. And when the average bettor, who knows none of this, sees Team A at only 0 they think "HOT DIGGITY IVE GOT AN EZ WINNER!" And they lose, and wonder wtf just happend, was there a fix?
I am a big believer that there ARE fixed games, but they are not fixed by the linesmakers. The linesmakers already make a killing on those situations where the public does not have the knowledge it should. And the longer a season goes on, the more fixed the public is on who they "know" to be better teams, so to speak.
They can't publish the #s because there are too many tells in the numbers. If you saw that one side had 100 bets at an average of $50 a piece...and the other side has 12 bets of an average of $400 a piece, there is a lot of information you could cull from that, over time, if you had it. They can't risk giving away that much information. Patterns would be easily found in their money and sides...you would basically be able to read who their sharps are and what sides they are on. They have to protect that, and their line moves for that reason...at least in my view of things.
The line was off in my opinion. Not....10 points off. But I think the linesmakers still expected the vast majority to back the Pats. I know from all the discussion in the forum that many cappers "knew" that everyone would want to back the Giants, but I think that is false. Most people don't pay close attention to the NFL...some do, but most don't. And a line of around 3 sounds too good to be true on the Pats, a team that won 10 in a row! I am pretty sure if you could get a linesmaker to give you an honest read, that he would tell you that they were surprised by how much Giants love there was.
As for fixing games, TCP I don't see it quite that way. Bettors are their own worst enemies...we have all had horrible days and wondered HOW HOW HOW could we be that bad! The difference imo is that in the majority of games, there isn't a lot of action on those games. And frequently, the linesmakers who really know the teams know things we don't. Such as, Team A has been talking s--- all week about revenge against Team B and is planning an all out effort against them. We might THINK that stuff, but they KNOW it from talking to people on the teams and in the lockerroom.
Team A might rightfully be a 10 point dog to Team B in any regular situation. But the "inside knowledge" about the motivation for Team A might make the correct line closer to 0. And when the average bettor, who knows none of this, sees Team A at only 0 they think "HOT DIGGITY IVE GOT AN EZ WINNER!" And they lose, and wonder wtf just happend, was there a fix?
I am a big believer that there ARE fixed games, but they are not fixed by the linesmakers. The linesmakers already make a killing on those situations where the public does not have the knowledge it should. And the longer a season goes on, the more fixed the public is on who they "know" to be better teams, so to speak.
They can't publish the #s because there are too many tells in the numbers. If you saw that one side had 100 bets at an average of $50 a piece...and the other side has 12 bets of an average of $400 a piece, there is a lot of information you could cull from that, over time, if you had it. They can't risk giving away that much information. Patterns would be easily found in their money and sides...you would basically be able to read who their sharps are and what sides they are on. They have to protect that, and their line moves for that reason...at least in my view of things.
I will say this, during the time leading up to Saturday & Sunday we saw the line and ML move down and move down drastically. Come Saturday & Sunday when the action started to even out, the line & ML barely budged.
When I saw this happen I knew the Giants were the play.
I will add one more thing. For as long as I've been doing this, whenever I've seen a favorite of -2½ I'd say over 80% of the time the DOG not only covers but wins outright.
When I saw this happen I knew the Giants were the play.
I will add one more thing. For as long as I've been doing this, whenever I've seen a favorite of -2½ I'd say over 80% of the time the DOG not only covers but wins outright.
Great passion from both you guys and I'm glad to see everybody is getting along
The line was off in my opinion. Not....10 points off. But I think the linesmakers still expected the vast majority to back the Pats. I know from all the discussion in the forum that many cappers "knew" that everyone would want to back the Giants, but I think that is false. Most people don't pay close attention to the NFL...some do, but most don't. And a line of around 3 sounds too good to be true on the Pats, a team that won 10 in a row! I am pretty sure if you could get a linesmaker to give you an honest read, that he would tell you that they were surprised by how much Giants love there was.
As for fixing games, TCP I don't see it quite that way. Bettors are their own worst enemies...we have all had horrible days and wondered HOW HOW HOW could we be that bad! The difference imo is that in the majority of games, there isn't a lot of action on those games. And frequently, the linesmakers who really know the teams know things we don't. Such as, Team A has been talking s--- all week about revenge against Team B and is planning an all out effort against them. We might THINK that stuff, but they KNOW it from talking to people on the teams and in the lockerroom.
Team A might rightfully be a 10 point dog to Team B in any regular situation. But the "inside knowledge" about the motivation for Team A might make the correct line closer to 0. And when the average bettor, who knows none of this, sees Team A at only 0 they think "HOT DIGGITY IVE GOT AN EZ WINNER!" And they lose, and wonder wtf just happend, was there a fix?
I am a big believer that there ARE fixed games, but they are not fixed by the linesmakers. The linesmakers already make a killing on those situations where the public does not have the knowledge it should. And the longer a season goes on, the more fixed the public is on who they "know" to be better teams, so to speak.
They can't publish the #s because there are too many tells in the numbers. If you saw that one side had 100 bets at an average of $50 a piece...and the other side has 12 bets of an average of $400 a piece, there is a lot of information you could cull from that, over time, if you had it. They can't risk giving away that much information. Patterns would be easily found in their money and sides...you would basically be able to read who their sharps are and what sides they are on. They have to protect that, and their line moves for that reason...at least in my view of things.
I'm not sure I disagree with you on any point. You are dead right that Vegas benefits more from access to inside, non-public information than it does on games that are just flat out fixed, as I don't think the amount of pure fixes is overly high. Having said that, the fact that there are games that are not on the level is a major problem, because it opens the entire discussion into whether the sport is pro wrestling or not.
I believe you'd have to be very naive to assume that a Tim Donaghy was an isolated case. If they're fixing and manipulating pro basketball, you're telling me football, the largest wagered sport on Earth, isn't corrupt?? We could spend our collective lives debating on how games are fixed or how Vegas has the upper hand, but there are far too many individuals employed by both college and pro football teams not have relationships with Vegas and/or the Mob. Again, call me paranoid or whatever you'd like, but there's simply too much money at stake for everyone involved (including players who don't have guaranteed contracts) for it to be played 100% of the time on the level.
Interesting. And why do you think the ML and side didn't budge after all of this NE money started pouring in over the weekend? Maybe it's because they were so fucked with the Giants they needed NE more than they'd ever admit?? It's as plausible as any other scenario out there.
Couldn't agree more with the -2.5 point.
