Talk dates all you want, but my main point the whole time was with 80-90% to come in Saturday/Sunday....I didn't care what the numbers were doing more than a week before the game. I said it didn't effing matter, and it didn't effing matter.
No dude, you've been off this whole time. During our debate the week before the Super Bowl, I clearly stated I understood the Giants were "currently" getting hit heavy, but that there was still tons of money left to come in (80-90%) - And that it would, in the end and by game day, not be the huge massive discrepancy that some were claiming it would be all the way to the end.
*I even posted that bookmaker stating that early it was very heavy Giants, but that they were still awaiting 80-90% of the money to come during the 2 days before the game. The bookmaker quote even said, "Ask me in 20 minutes, and it could be totally different."
Meaning very little (of the final Super Bowl take) was actually in.
I made the post clearly stating I understood. So your wrong.
And since I knew your only comeback here would be some "show me post!" or "prove it!" bullshit (because that's all you cried all damn week), I even found the quote for you.
Here's the post....6 days before the Super Bowl....clearly showing I understood what was going on with the early money, but that it was just too early for it to scare me....since such a high percentage was left to come in. So your wrong again, and still having trouble in this discussion.
From 1/31
So I ask....only what I did in my previous post....
WHY POST THIS ?! (with lame follow up):
When the quote quite clearly was:
I still don't think it was a bad line...and I still don't think they were exposed.Maris, my good man! Jimmy Vaccaro is a fucking snake in the grass, but I digress.
When you and I were first going at this, roughly a week before the game, you were claiming that the money was with the Giants, but not as much as people were claiming. Fine. I disagreed on that point. My contention was that the Giants were getting fucking hammered on the ML and Side AT THAT TIME. No one had a clue what the final cash flow would be on Sunday, and I still question what the books are claiming regarding late Pats money. No one is arguing the amount of action placed late Saturday and Sunday. The trends during the week prior to the game were so skewed to the Giants that it was unlike most Super Bowls. That's all I was saying. Yes, the books were taking nearly nothing but Giants money on the side and ML....until the end. And again, that is to be questioned, IMO.
I never argued the point that it was wise to bet the Giants or Pats based on where the money was going, ever. Never. Ever! My entire point was that I couldn't believe how bad of a line Vegas set to begin with that would allow them to be exposed like that.
I still don't think it was a bad line...and I still don't think they were exposed.
But that's something neither of us will ever truly know.
I just said that it DID NOT MATTER to me who was doing what, 10-12 days before the game. It didn't matter to me one bit.
And yes, they're probably all snakes in the grass.
I still didn't understand what the purpose was of only posting the part of that quote that fit your argument, leaving off the other half that did not.
Great passion from both you guys and I'm glad to see everybody is getting along![]()
The line was off in my opinion. Not....10 points off. But I think the linesmakers still expected the vast majority to back the Pats. I know from all the discussion in the forum that many cappers "knew" that everyone would want to back the Giants, but I think that is false. Most people don't pay close attention to the NFL...some do, but most don't. And a line of around 3 sounds too good to be true on the Pats, a team that won 10 in a row! I am pretty sure if you could get a linesmaker to give you an honest read, that he would tell you that they were surprised by how much Giants love there was.
As for fixing games, TCP I don't see it quite that way. Bettors are their own worst enemies...we have all had horrible days and wondered HOW HOW HOW could we be that bad! The difference imo is that in the majority of games, there isn't a lot of action on those games. And frequently, the linesmakers who really know the teams know things we don't. Such as, Team A has been talking s--- all week about revenge against Team B and is planning an all out effort against them. We might THINK that stuff, but they KNOW it from talking to people on the teams and in the lockerroom.
Team A might rightfully be a 10 point dog to Team B in any regular situation. But the "inside knowledge" about the motivation for Team A might make the correct line closer to 0. And when the average bettor, who knows none of this, sees Team A at only 0 they think "HOT DIGGITY IVE GOT AN EZ WINNER!" And they lose, and wonder wtf just happend, was there a fix?
I am a big believer that there ARE fixed games, but they are not fixed by the linesmakers. The linesmakers already make a killing on those situations where the public does not have the knowledge it should. And the longer a season goes on, the more fixed the public is on who they "know" to be better teams, so to speak.
They can't publish the #s because there are too many tells in the numbers. If you saw that one side had 100 bets at an average of $50 a piece...and the other side has 12 bets of an average of $400 a piece, there is a lot of information you could cull from that, over time, if you had it. They can't risk giving away that much information. Patterns would be easily found in their money and sides...you would basically be able to read who their sharps are and what sides they are on. They have to protect that, and their line moves for that reason...at least in my view of things.
Word.I'm not sure I disagree with you on any point. You are dead right that Vegas benefits more from access to inside, non-public information than it does on games that are just flat out fixed, as I don't think the amount of pure fixes is overly high. Having said that, the fact that there are games that are not on the level is a major problem, because it opens the entire discussion into whether the sport is pro wrestling or not.
I will say this, during the time leading up to Saturday & Sunday we saw the line and ML move down and move down drastically. Come Saturday & Sunday when the action started to even out, the line & ML barely budged.
When I saw this happen I knew the Giants were the play.
I will add one more thing. For as long as I've been doing this, whenever I've seen a favorite of -2½ I'd say over 80% of the time the DOG not only covers but wins outright.