Indianapolis rallied for 17 fourth-quarter points last week to win the AFC South, but the Colts' reward is a return date in the Wild Card round with the Broncos, who stampeded the Colts in a dominating Week 16 win.
The Colts won 12 games, a division title, earned their first home playoff game since 1999 and quarterback Peyton Manning is a leading contender for league MVP honors. Manning directed the NFL's second-leading scoring offense, passed for over 4,000 yards for a fifth straight season and drastically reduced his turnovers this year.
Manning and the Colts have known all year, though, they won't be judged on any regular-season achievements, no matter how impressive. The fourth-quarter comebacks and Manning's six-touchdown game against New Orleans will be forgotten with another early playoff exit. For all of his achievements, Manning still carries the "can't win the big one" label. He is 0-3 in three career NFL playoff games, including a 41-0 loss to the New York Jets last season.
"Until you win that first one, you're going to hear it," Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy said. "One year really doesn't have anything to do with the last year, but in peoples' minds, it does, so for Peyton, that's the way it's going to be. The best way to alleviate that is to win"
Dungy said Manning is well aware of his reputation and postseason record and has counseled him all season to relax when playoff time arrives.
"He understands it and we've talked about it a lot during the course of the year," Dungy said. "We said at the very beginning, when we were 4-0, that it wouldn't really matter -- that when we got to the end of the year people would say, 'The season starts with the first playoff game.' Whether we were 14-2 or 15-1 or 9-7 and barely getting in, it would have been the same. People would have said, 'OK, now we're really at the crux of the whole situation.' Fair or unfair, that's the way it is, so he understands that. Hopefully, he won't put undue pressure on himself. There's enough pressure trying to win playoff games no matter what."
Dungy has his own playoff stigma to contend with, losing in the first round his last two seasons in Tampa Bay and his first season with the Colts.
"It's really not something you think about," he said. "You know it's there and we haven't won, but to me, when you lose playoff games -- whether they're 41-0 or 35-34 -- they hurt the same. It's a loss. A loss is just a loss and a win is just a win. You go onto the next week. It doesn't matter if you lose in the first round, the second round or the championship game, you feel like you could have won that game if you'd done something a little bit differently."
Denver rushed for over 200 yards without star running back Clinton Portis in the regular-season win over Indianapolis. Mike Shanahan told his team it would make the playoffs with 10 wins after a home loss to the Bears dropped the Broncos to 6-5. The Broncos got hot and beat the Colts to hurdle their biggest postseason obstacle and clinch a berth.
With a playoff spot locked up, Denver rested quarterback Jake Plummer, Portis and tight end Shannon Sharpe in the regular-season finale at Green Bay. Shanahan said he would not have done that if he thought it would dull the team's performance and said he's doesn't think the recent win over Indy will cause his team to be overconfident on Sunday.
"Our football players are pros," Shanahan said. "They understand that any team can beat any team on any given Sunday. You have to prepare. They know what we are capable of doing if we play well as a football team. They know what type of football team Indy is -- a very good football team. They play extremely hard and they have been very consistent throughout the whole year. We are going to go in there and we are going to get their best shot. Anytime a football team gets beat, they want to show everybody that they can come back and play well, and we want to go in there and prove it wasn't a fluke and play well again."
SERIES HISTORY: Denver leads the regular-season series 10-4 and has won eight of the past 11 meetings, including the Week 16 win at the RCA Dome. Including a preseason game, this will be the fourth time these teams have faced each other in the last 58 weeks. All of the games have been seen nationally, including an Indianapolis overtime win at Denver in the snow last year.
The last time the teams played was December 21, a 31-17 Denver win. Rookie running back Quentin Griffin had a career-high 136 rushing yards playing for the injured Portis to lead the running game. Denver held the ball for 44:58 in that contest, while Plummer ran for two scores.
Shanahan owns a 1-2 lifetime record against Indianapolis. Dungy is now 2-2 against the Broncos.
PLAYOFF SPOTLIGHT: The Broncos are 16-12 all-time in the playoffs. The Colts have a 10-13 postseason record. Shanahan is 7-2 in the playoffs and has two Super Bowl victories. Dungy is 2-5 in the playoffs.
The Broncos and Colts have made the playoffs in the same season four previous times -- after the 1977, 1987, 1996 and 2000 seasons, but have never played each other in the postseason.
BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
Portis and a greatly improved defense have helped Denver return to the playoffs, but the biggest reason the Broncos are playing in January is Plummer.
Shanahan's reputation took a hit after the retirement of John Elway and injuries to running back Terrell Davis. He struck out on developing Brian Griese and made a slew of poor free-agent acquisitions on defense, but the signing of Plummer was the best move of the offseason.
Shanahan bet that a strong running game and an offense that didn't rely solely on Plummer to make plays would lead to a career rebirth. Plummer rewarded Shanahan's faith by posting career highs in passer rating (91.2, fifth in NFL), completion percentage (62.6), while throwing 15 touchdowns and just seven interceptions after never having had a season with more touchdowns than picks. Most importantly, Plummer was 9-2 as a starting quarterback and emerged as a team leader.
"It's because of the way he thinks, his aggressiveness," veteran wide receiver Rod Smith said. "His thing is, 'I can make a play. I don't care how I've got to make it, just make a play.' That attitude is what everybody else is riding on."
It's something that Plummer's teammates on defense have picked up on as well.
"He's probably playing better than he's ever played," defensive tackle Trevor Pryce said. "It looks like the game moves slow to him, and he can just make things happen at the flick of a wrist. That's the biggest thing. That's what I'm kind of riding into this thing. It's Jake."
Plummer's confidence and leadership were on display in the first game with Indy. He threw an interception that was returned 31 yards for a touchdown on the opening drive of the game. That put the Broncos in a 7-0 hole barely two minutes into the game and ignited the crowd in the dome. Plummer silenced them, however, on the ensuing possession, leading the Broncos to a touchdown. Shanahan said performances like that build confidence for the quarterback and the team.
"Any time you have a setback like throwing the first-quarter interception for a touchdown and you come back and you find a way to play well, it is always a confidence builder -- not necessarily just Indy but any football game," Shanahan said. "If you can have mistakes early in a game and still have the confidence to fight back and win, that is a positive. I wouldn't say that it is a big confidence booster just because we are playing Indy. It would be any football team."
The Broncos ran all over the Colts in the first game and will try to repeat their performance on Sunday. Shanahan said he doesn't think either team will change the game plan too much in the playoffs, the difference will simply be who executes better.
"You let players make plays," he said. "You always have a little bit of game plan work, but you don't want to get too carried away. You want players to go out there and do what they have been doing all season and try to put the game in their hands."
For the Broncos, the first game with the Colts was in good hands with Griffin. Denver had 227 rushing yards without Portis, and Plummer completed 14-of-17 passes. The game again exposed major problems in the Colts' run defense. After opening the season strong, the Colts allowed at least 130 yards rushing in seven of eight games. Six opposing rushers went over the 100-yard mark, but Indianapolis had appeared to have made improvements before playing the Broncos.
In the four games prior to the Week 16 matchup, the Colts held opponents to less than 100 yards rushing. They were hapless against the Denver O-line, though. Griffin consistently cut back against the hard-charging Indianapolis defense for big gains. With Portis -- the leader in yards per carry -- fully healthy, slowing down the run game figures to be just as difficult. It's something that Indianapolis linebacker Marcus Washington is anxious to do, though. After the embarrassing Sunday night performance, Washington is glad the defense has a chance at redemption.
"There are not a lot of times in the NFL when you get a second chance," Washington said. "We're going to get one, and we're excited about it.
"We want that chance to prove ourselves. We really wanted to play Denver. They came in and walked all over us. We need to go out and prove that we're supposed to be in the playoffs and that we deserve to be in the playoffs"
Portis has 29 rushing touchdowns in 29 career games and is an exceptional cut-back runner. To try and slow him Indianapolis would like to move hard- hitting rookie safety Mike Doss near the line of scrimmage as a fourth linebacker. However, Doss is slowed by an ankle injury. Regardless, that did not work well in the first game because Plummer was so accurate with his passes. Dungy has told his team though that past performance means nothing.
"The first year we made the playoffs in Tampa Bay [1996] we lost to Detroit late in the season," Dungy told his team. "Barry Sanders went for almost 300 yards, close to an all-time record. It's coming down to playoff time and people are trying to figure out who we're going to play and it turned out we had to play Detroit again. We played them and it was different. We won the game and Barry didn't run for too many yards.
"It's just how you play that particular day. [The Broncos] did some things the last time we played that were very good. We've got to come up with a way to counteract that, but that's why you play football games. That's why every game is different. They have a great running attack and they've run it on just about everybody all year. But they haven't scored 31 points every game. That's what we have to do. We have to find a way to hold them down to 14 or 17 points. That's what our charge is."
Slowing down Portis on the fast RCA Dome turf is the toughest task the Colts will have all season, but the Broncos have more weapons if Portis is contained. Plummer has the speed to scramble and buy time when pressured by Pro Bowl defensive end Dwight Freeney.
Smith has lost a few steps, but is still a clutch receiver, as is Sharpe. They will give Plummer safe targets underneath. With Indy playing more men in the box to stop the run, speedster Ashley Lelie will see single coverage and could provide the Broncos with big plays down the field.
Lelie was the forgotten man in the Denver offense after some dropped passes, but he finished the season strong. Lelie went eight games -- Week 5 through Week 14 -- recording only 17 catches for less than a 10 yard average per catch. Against Cleveland, though, he saved Denver's season. The Browns took a three-point lead in their Week 15 game with just over a minute to play when Lelie came alive. He caught the first two passes of the tying drive for a first down, then made the biggest play of the Broncos' season, a 46-yard catch to the Cleveland 17-yard line. The reception set up Jason Elam's tying field goal with four seconds to play and Denver rode Portis to an overtime win.
Lelie had three catches for 58 yards on the decisive drive and followed it with a five-catch, 115-yard game against Indianapolis the next week that included a 60-yard catch to set up Denver's first touchdown.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE
Manning again made the Pro Bowl and passed for an NFL-best 4,267 yards. He also led the AFC with 29 touchdown passes, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to have six straight seasons with at least 25 touchdowns. As good as Manning is, he can't be effective if the Colts don't run the ball well.
Indianapolis had the ball for just 15:02 in the first game with Denver and had to abandon the run when it fell behind. Running back Edgerrin James had just 10 carries in the game and the Colts attempted three running plays after falling behind 28-14 with 1:11 left in the first half. The Colts must establish a ground game with James on Sunday.
Portis' predecessor at Miami, James is the overlooked back in this game, but he has shown he's fully recovered from 2001 knee surgery, rushing for 1,259 yards and 11 touchdowns despite missing three games with a broke bone in his back. James averaged 96.8 yards per game and when he is running well, Manning's play-action passes become lethal. He had his best game of the season last week in Houston, running for 171 yards. It was the fourth time James has rushed for over 100 yards in the last seven weeks.
The Colts will try to establish James early to keep Denver off-balance and to keep their own defense off the field. Look for the Colts to use their stretch play where Manning races outside, arm fully extended to handoff to James, to test the perimeter of the Broncos' defense. Denver outside linebackers Jashon Sykes and Donnie Spragan have played well since replacing injured starters John Mobley and Ian Gold, but they are not as good as that pair and don't have a lot of game experience. When the Colts run the play, James can try and get to the corner, or cut back inside if he sees an opening. Manning's deftness with the ball holds the linebackers and safeties giving James time to hit the hole.
That play will be key to the Colts' success Sunday. In the first game, with the running game not an option, Manning was harassed into a 13-for-25 performance for 146 yards and no touchdowns. Denver middle linebacker Al Harris, a teammate of Manning's at the University of Tennessee, knows Manning will play better this time around.
"I know Peyton is going to come out fired up," Wilson said. "That's the kind of person he is. He's a competitor. He's definitely going to come back with a vengeance."
With Gold and Mobley out, Denver doesn't have a lot of playmakers on defense, but it does have Harris, a leader on the most improved unit in the NFL. The Broncos could not stop anyone last year, but enter the playoffs with the fourth-ranked defense.
A key has been efficiency on third down. Last year opposing offenses completed nearly two-thirds of their passes to keep Denver on the field. Under new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer, the linebackers' coach last year, Denver is No. 3 in third-down effectiveness. Opponents have succeeded just 29.5 percent on third-down opportunities.
Coyer set a goal this year of rushing the passer with just his front four, to help an inexperienced secondary. Before the season he said getting to the quarterback with just his linemen would be the key to the team's defensive success. He was right. Defensive end Bertrand Berry led the team with a career-best 11.5 sacks; he had 13.5 in five seasons prior to 2003. He combined with defensive end Reggie Hayward (8.5) and Pryce (8.5) to form the only trio in the NFL with at least 8.5 sacks each. If Denver can repeat its defensive success next year, Coyer will be a hot head coaching candidate.
With Manning under pressure in the first game, Denver was able to hold Marvin Harrison mostly in check. King-sized cornerback Lenny Walls did a great job of tackling and limited Harrison to four catches for 22 yards before Harrison got loose for a 60-yard bomb.
Reggie Wayne was shutout on the other side. Wayne and third receiver Brandon Stokley, who is finally healthy, must play better Sunday with all of the attention given to Harrison.
Manning was able to hit Marcus Pollard down the seam for 27 yards in the first meeting with Denver. Pollard should have caught another deep ball over the middle. He and Dallas Clark, who could be back for this game, present a big advantage for Manning over the Denver safeties with Nick Ferguson now out for the season.
The Broncos are on a roll and Portis may be the most explosive back in the league. This is a must-win game for Manning, though, and at the end of his sixth season, he'll shake the 600-pound gorilla and the Broncos' defense to deliver his first career playoff win.
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