(Sports Network) - It’s playoff glory or bust for the Indianapolis Colts this year. For all of the individual success of Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Edgerrin James, the Colts are 25-25 including playoff games since the start of the 2000 season.
The trio takes up too much of the salary cap for .500 results. Manning reached new heights, Harrison shattered the single-season receptions record and the team improved by four games in Tony Dungy’s initial season as Indy's head coach, but any good feelings were wiped out when the Colts were annihilated by a 41-0 count in the playoffs against the Jets.
James is healthy after 2001 knee surgery and the Colts have a deeper core of receivers. The weapons are there. Manning has to cut down on his turnovers or his partnership with James and Harrison will be dissolved, something that was unthinkable in 1999.
While Dungy left the offense alone last year, he brought Ron Meeks in to install his defense. The result was a statistical improvement from 29th in total defense, to eighth. The first-round selection of Dwight Freeney was a perfect fit for the defense. He gave the Colts their best pass-rushing threat in decades and helped improve the speed of the defense.
As much as the defense flourished in Dungy’s Cover-2 system, turnovers were still scarce. The Colts picked off just 10 passes last year, and LB Mike Peterson, the team leader with three picks, was allowed to leave as a free agent. In Dungy’s final two seasons in Tampa his defense’s intercepted 25 passes each year and caused a total of 78 turnovers.
For the Colts to continue to improve, Dungy knows creating more turnovers is the key.
"There’s no way we’re going to be efficient with eight or nine interceptions over the course of a year," Dungy said. "Guys really have to increase their standards. We talk about 32 being two a game -- that’s a minimum. Realistically, 40 is what you’re looking for."
Without a playoff victory, Dungy is likely to be looking at some new faces on offense next year.
OFFENSE
Peyton Manning has started every game since being the top pick in the 1998 draft. His 80-game streak is the longest ever to start a career, and is the second-longest active streak behind Brett Favre. He’s never thrown less than 26 touchdowns and has four consecutive seasons of 4,000 or more passing yards. He’s a player the league spotlights as a role model and spokesman and has no scandals on his resume despite a life spent in the public eye. So what’s not to love?
Mainly the zero postseason wins. Manning has been somewhat bulletproof because he’s a good guy and cooperative with the media, but each season the Colts go home without a postseason win, the doubts grow about Manning’s value despite the gaudy stats.
At a time when the West Coast offense proliferates, Manning takes more chances downfield. More interceptions have been the result. Manning was picked off 19 times last year and 23 in 2001. For his career he has a 1.38-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Those are numbers straight out of the 1970s when his dad Archie was playing.
Last year’s Super Bowl quarterbacks, Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson, combined for 48 TDs and 16 picks, a 3-to-1 ratio. Manning has an above-average arm; it’s just not as good as he thinks it is.
Thankfully he seemed to cut back on calling plays over center. His continued use hurt the Colts as much as it helped by making the linemen remain set for extended periods. That said, Manning still does a whole lot more right than wrong and is certainly capable of erasing any doubts about his ability to win a big game.
He’ll be helped by a healthy James, who said he feels better than at any time since his 2001 surgery. James came back to rush for 989 yards but he clearly lacked the acceleration he displayed in his first two seasons. His longest run of the year was only 20 yards and he rushed for just two touchdowns. James is also one of the best receiving backs in the league.
Dominic Rhodes was sensational when James was injured in 2001, but he missed all of last season because of knee surgery and has been injured during camp. If healthy he’ll back up James and the two may even play together this year as the Colts have experimented with a two-back set. James Mungro took over as James’ backup last season and scored eight touchdowns. James should again get the ball at the goal line this year, but Mungro provides depth if Rhodes is out for an extended time. FB Donnel Thompson is out for the year after he tore the ACL in his right knee.
How ridiculous are the numbers Marvin Harrison has put up over the last four seasons? He has averaged 117 catches, 1,580 yards and 13 TDs over that time. Reggie Wayne made big strides in his second season and could also reach the 1,000-yard mark. He had 716 yards last year and led the Colts with a 14.6 average. Qadry Ismail didn’t work out last year, but the Colts have turned to another former Baltimore Raven this year. Brandon Stokley will be the slot receiver and has the speed to make plays against nickel defenders.
Marcus Pollard has been a good TE for the Colts, catching 14 TDs the last two years, but he could see his production dip in his ninth season. The Colts surprised almost everyone when they selected TE Dallas Clark in the first round. A new toy for Manning seemed a luxury when the defense needed to improve, but Clark should help the offense immediately.
At 6-foot-3 and 253 pounds, Clark has excellent speed and hands and can be a matchup nightmare. His arrival should mean a return to the two-tight end sets the Colts featured when they had Ken Dilger and Pollard. Clark, in his debut, on the first pass thrown to him, caught the ball, turned upfield and leveled Bears Pro Bowl LB Brian Urlacher. Shockey-like? Not really, he had no plans afterward to insult former coach Jim Mora in Indianapolis Monthly.
Manning is accustomed to good protection. For his career he’s only been dumped once per every 26 pass attempts. He’ll have some new players in front of him this season though. RG Ryan Diem has been moved to RT and could unseat long time starter Adam Meadows. Rookie fourth-rounder Steve Sciullo would then be the starter at RG. Jeff Saturday is a top-tier center. Rick DeMulling started 14 games at LG in his second season last year and will again team with Tarik Glenn on the left side. When Glenn tells Manning he’s got his back, he means it. Glenn has started every game at LT since being drafted in the first round in 1997 and has not missed a single snap over the past five seasons.
DEFENSE
Dwight Freeney was a terror last season, smashing any notion that he was too small to play DE in the NFL. The other knock on Freeney was that he was strictly a turf player and his speed would be neutralized on grass. Consider that theory debunked. Freeney was an equal-surface menace to opposing offenses. He recorded 13 sacks in 12 games and forced nine fumbles. Over his last seven regular season games he had 9.0 sacks and all nine FF. Freeney will play mainly on passing downs.
Reliable veteran Chad Bratzke will start at one end and Brad Scioli at the other. Both can also move inside when Freeney is in the game. Second-year man Larry Tripplett should start at DT. Scioli, Bratzke, and free-agent addition Montae Reagor will also rotate at DT.
Veteran linebacker Mike Peterson departed during free agency and will be replaced by David Thornton, a special teams standout with excellent speed. Rob Morris really developed in Dungy’s defense last year and will again man the middle. He had some knee problems during camp but is expected to be ready for the opener. Marcus Washington is the other OLB, but could yield to rookie Robert Mathis on passing downs. The fifth-round pick had 17 sacks as a defensive end at Alabama A&M last year. He’s got great speed and has set his goals high. Mathis wants to break the rookie sack record.
In the defensive backfield, veteran Walt Harris has one CB spot locked up. Nick Harper, an undrafted free agent in 2001, looks like he is ready to unseat David Macklin at the other corner. David Gibson, the player steamrolled by Jeremy Shockey last year, and Idrees Bashir return at safety with a mandate to get more turnovers.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Mike Vanderjagt is still the most accurate kicker in NFL history, cashing in better than 85 percent of his kicks. That explains why a PK can go on national television in Canada and rip his head coach and quarterback and still have a job. He apologized to both and the incident is supposedly history. Another performance like last year though and Vanderjagt won’t have the luxury of mouthing off about anyone. His performance slipped noticeably the past two seasons. Coming off of a very good, but not great 2001 season, Vanderjagt missed eight kicks last year. So good from 40 plus yards his first four seasons, Vanderjagt was only 6-of-12 from 40-to-49 yards out. Hunter Smith returns to handle punting duties. WR Troy Walters is the favorite to handle return duties.
COACHING
Tony Dungy handled the easy part; he improved team speed and morale after Jim Mora’s final season. The defense made strides to respectability. Improving to an elite level and creating the 40 turnovers Dungy wants will take a lot more work. Dungy’s been saddled with the same baggage as Manning, can’t win in the postseason. If the Colts don’t win a playoff game this season, one of the Big Three or Dungy won’t be around in 2004.
OUTLOOK
The Colts don’t have enough playmakers on defense to create the havoc Dungy wants. They’re also thin at LB and in the secondary. They have oodles of big- play threats on offense. For the Colts to take the next step, however, they need to carry the day. Manning has to cut down on the interceptions and spread the ball around efficiently. There’s no reason the Colts can’t score more than 400 points and be a top five scoring offense.
Indy was 0-5 including the playoff game when it scored less than 20 points last year. Good defense and bad days happen, but with all the tools the Colts have on offense a repeat of five sub 20-point performances is unacceptable. The Colts should battle the Titans for first place in the AFC South all season. They’re good enough to win the division and a playoff game, they just have to go out and do it.
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